ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
Anika Wells, since 2019.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. Lilley covers most of the northern corner of the City of Brisbane, including the suburbs of Chermside, Stafford, McDowall, Wavell Heights, Nudgee, Taigum, Deagon, Sandgate, Zilllmere and Nundah. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport, which substantially increases the land area covered by Lilley, without much of a resident population.
History
The seat of Lilley was first created at the 1913 election. The seat has a history of moving between Labor and conservative parties, although Labor has won it at all but one election since 1980.
The seat was first won in 1913 by Liberal candidate Jacob Stumm. He retired at the 1917 election.
The seat was then won by Nationalist candidate George Mackay. Mackay held the seat for 17 years. After the new United Australia Party won the 1931 election, Mackay was elected Speaker, and served in that role until his retirement at the 1934 election.
Lilley was then won by the UAP’s Donald Charles Cameron, who had previously held Brisbane from 1919 until his defeat in 1931. He only held Lilley for one term before retiring.
In 1937, the UAP’s William Jolly was elected to Lilley. Jolly had been the first Lord Mayor of the Greater Brisbane City Council. Jolly held the seat for two terms, but lost the seat in 1943 to the ALP’s James Hadley.
Hadley was the first Labor member for Lilley, and held it until his defeat in 1949. The seat was then held by Liberal MP Bruce Wight.
Wight held the seat until 1961, when he was defeated by the ALP’s Donald James Cameron. He only held the seat for one term, losing to Kevin Cairns from the Liberal Party in 1963. Cairns served as a junior minister under William McMahon from 1971 to his defeat at the 1972 election, losing to the ALP’s Frank Doyle. Cairns won the seat back at the next election in 1974 and held it until his defeat in 1980.
The ALP’s Elaine Darling won Lilley in 1980. She managed to win re-election in 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1990, and was the first Labor MP to hold Lilley for more than two terms.
Darling retired in 1993, and was succeeded by Wayne Swan, the Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Swan lost the seat in 1996 to the Liberal Party’s Elizabeth Grace, but won it back in 1998. Swan has been re-elected seven times.
Swan joined the Opposition shadow ministry in 1998 and rose to the top of the party, becoming Treasurer after the election of the Rudd government in 2007.
In 2010, Wayne Swan became Deputy Prime Minister. Swan resigned from the deputy leadership and the frontbench when Kevin Rudd was elected Labor leader in 2013. Swan held Lilley until his retirement in 2019, when he was succeeded by Labor’s Anika Wells.
Assessment
Lilley is a very marginal seat but Wells will likely benefit from a new personal vote after holding the seat for the last term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brad Carswell | Liberal National | 39,392 | 40.8 | +2.1 |
| Anika Wells | Labor | 34,434 | 35.6 | -8.1 |
| John Meyer | Greens | 13,539 | 14.0 | +2.3 |
| Tracey Bell-Henselin | One Nation | 5,165 | 5.3 | +5.4 |
| David Bruce Mcclaer | United Australia Party | 2,177 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Don Coles | Conservative National Party | 1,155 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Mike Crook | Socialist Alliance | 743 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 3,480 | 3.5 | +0.6 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anika Wells | Labor | 48,917 | 50.6 | -5.0 |
| Brad Carswell | Liberal National | 47,688 | 49.4 | +5.0 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Central, East, North and South.
Labor won a majority on election day in all four areas, ranging from 51.2% in the south to 55.7% in the north. The LNP clawed back the margin thanks to a 52.6% margin in the pre-poll vote and 52% in the other votes.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 16.0 | 51.2 | 20,356 | 21.1 |
| Central | 13.2 | 53.7 | 13,066 | 13.5 |
| East | 15.8 | 55.4 | 11,836 | 12.3 |
| North | 17.2 | 55.7 | 5,969 | 6.2 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 47.4 | 30,090 | 31.1 |
| Other votes | 13.1 | 48.0 | 15,288 | 15.8 |
Election results in Lilley at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Test
Crucial seat, very ‘bellweather’. Outer metropolitan with a mix of working class suburbs (Zillmere, Geebung, Boondall, Nudgee etc); conservative, gentrifying McMansionland (McDowall and Carseldine, and especially Bridgeman Downs); a few sea-side areas further north (Sandgate, Shorncliffe, Brighton etc) and a bunch middle-class, established suburbs with a mix of demographics that could go either way down south. I’d say that Stafford, Stafford Heights, Kedron, Nundah and Wavell Heights are probably going to be more reliably Labor voting than past elections although there isn’t nearly the same amount of high-density development as in the inner-city. Decent amount of new apartments along Gympie Road and Chermside. Chermside itself has a sizeable Indian population, something like 5% I think, and you can maybe say they’re going to be increasingly voting for the LNP, but overall it’s a very white electorate. The electoral districts of Aspley, Nudgee and Sandgate, all roughly coterminous with Lilley saw significant swings towards Labor but I’d put that down more to Labor’s decisiveness on Covid than anything else.
LNP and Labor have both already started leafletting and for good reason. I’d say this is a ‘must-win’ for Labor, because if they lose this one they can probably kiss goodbye to a whole slew of similar seats in NSW, and there won’t be nearly enough pickups in WA/Victoria/wherever else to make up for it.
Forgot to say there’s been a ton of new apartments in Everton Park too, especially along Old Northern Road, so again, probably favorable for Labor.
A relatively strong Greens showing helped Labor hang on here. The 2019 Greens candidate fell out hard with the party, to the point of running in South Brisbane to disrupt the campaign there. A small factor that will make life harder for Labor
Additionally Anika Wells is part of the hard right of the ALP (the “fitzgibbon faction” / “otis group”) and that could factor in to the Liberal campaign to soften Green preferences (possibly with fake htvs) and keep small-l Liberals in the blue column.
The LNP are running a serious grassroots campaign here like last time, I expect them to gain this seat finally this time, Wells may have been impressive but the tide will likely hit Lilley.
I am surprised the LNP are not running Brad Carswell again, He almost won this seat last time. If Swan had ran last time he may have even lost to him. Labor have no clue what is coming for them here in QLD on election night 2022.
I think the LNP candidate could be here for a few terms if Labor doesn’t fix it’s mess up. This is not a safe Labor seat. I expect it to be called within 2 hours like Herbert and Longman were called within a few hours last time. Labor should stop wasting resources trying to hold the QLD seats and spend them on winning Higgins and other Victorian marginals.
This election is not being won or lost in QLD, QLD only will decide if Labor has a working majority, Labor can be in minority or have a tiny majority if it does well in the other states
Furtive, do you think the ban on Australians returning from India (and the legislated gaol time) a few months back will have any impact on the Indian vote, or will that be too far in the past? Or will it be something that sticks at a more visceral level?
Will an electorate like this be happy with their state premier’s performance on covid and, if so, could that any of that satisfaction spill over to federal labor?
The big swing against ALP at the 2019 election was in large part due to the loss of Wayne Swan’s personal vote. Swan had a significant personal vote and at the 2001 and 2004 federal election, Swan was able to get a swing to him against the state trend. if Anika Wells has been active in the community she should be able to get a swing to her despite the overall result.
Cassandra I’m not part of the Indian community and don’t feel remotely comfortable speaking on their behalf, as much as I love sharing my stupid uneducated opinions. I’m still nonetheless confident that Palaszczuk’s handling of COVID has broad appeal here, like most of Queensland.
Tossup, this seat could easily go either way. I still think labor has a chance of holding on here due to incumbency.
If Labor is losing Lilley, they’re gonna lose in a massive landslide nationally (which would be surprising after almost 4 terms in opposition.) I just can’t see it. Albo has done little but he’s also not Shorten who was loathed in Qld, he can’t possibly do worse. If Wells has done her ground work she should be able to hold it. I think Coalition retain gov though.
Wells has been doing a bit of a blitz on tv and social media about the Coalition’s climate policy, or lack thereof. Her twitter account’s absolutely chock full of climate stuff. Clearly she believes this is a sore point for swing voters in Lilley. That, and/or she’s trying to sandbag her own perceived weakness in the area. John says she’s part of the Fitzgibbon crew, but you certainly wouldn’t know it from the way she’s been acting. Of course she hasn’t said what she would do differently and how she’d be any better than the Coalition, but then neither has any Labor MP.
As part of his campaign visit yesterday Morrison decided to write Wells’ attack lines for her by sneering at the journalists asking about the discrepancies in pork barrel funding between Lilley and all the LNP held seats around it (from $43m allocated to Dickson to just over $900k to Lilley).
Judging from his recent Facebook posts over the last month or so, Ryan Shaw seems to have trouble turning out much more than a single volunteer for his canvassing efforts.
Feeling a lot like a Labor hold atm
I probably see Lilley as a district that is a hybrid of the Sydney districts of Banks and Barton, both located in the St George/Georges River area between the airport and Sutherland Shire.
The Brisbane city end around Stafford and Nundah behaves like the Labor voting areas of Kogarah and Bexley whilst the northern end around Sandgate and Carseldine may be more like the coastal and riverside suburbs of Sans Souci and Mortdale/Oatley.
Overall it is a swing district that may be slightly Labor leaning, which is probably why the LNP will only win it during landslide elections.
I’ve never been to Kogarah but from I understand it’s very multicultural with a very high number of South Asian, Greek and Chinese immigrants and their descendants, and quite religious. Stafford on the other hand is very white and slightly less religious than the national average (and much less than average for Queensland). Nundah has a decent sized Indian minority but again, really pretty white and similar to Stafford in terms of religiosity. Those sorts of demographics sound much more favourable for the Liberal Party in the future. Not very comparable imo
Yeah probably agree with your assessment Furtive, I am probably only comparing areas based on their proximity to the CBD. Sydney is more multicultural than Brisbane so is not really a good comparison apart from the inner suburban areas like Newtown being like Paddington/Milton in terms of being fairly affluent yet socially progressive suburbs that favour the Greens.
Also some riverside suburbs like Hamilton and Ascot being conservative leaning like Bondi and Vaucluse in Sydney.
Difficult for Labour, even though a lot of people are sick of seeing the sweet smiles from Morrison, who I feel has lost his gloss. He has avoided the need to be fixed issues, especially regarding women’s lack of representation in so many areas. He oozes confidence, but fails as an intellectual, believes in miracles, really.! Old World thinking, we need a new proactive govt, ready to take on the main issues.
Annika Wells has the advantage this time of being the sitting member. She has been energetic in the electorate over the past 3 years. The factors against Labor in Queensland at the last election are not nearly as much in play in this election. There is a strong Labor vote in suburbs such as Nudgee, Brighton, Stafford and Sandgate. There is a Liberal voting area around Aspley and McDowall but Labor are determined to hold this seat and with a strong local campaign should do so with an increased margin. Ascot is now in the seat of Brisbane. The Labor Party in my opinion will hold all their Queensland seats with plausible chances in Longman and Flynn. The land slide that blew Labor away in Queensland last election is unlikely to occur this time. People don’t really care what faction within a party a person is in in terms of their vote ,that’s only important for the political gamesters.
Labor paying $1.40 to win on Sportsbet, Coalition $2.75. They clearly believe Wells will be boosted by her incumbency and a general swing to Labor in the Brisbane suburbs.
m8 just post the odds in like, one thread
No.
Its been reported today in the Courier Mail the LNP candidate for Lilley Ryan Shaw has pulled out citing the need to focus on his mental health.
Yes, big news today
Be interesting who will put their hand up? or will someone get parachuted in?
It’s been more than a month now and still no one’s been selected, so I don’t think it matters anymore. The LNP has basically given up in Lilley.
Surprising to see them give up here given many thought this could be an LNP gain a while ago. But the political environment has clearly shifted, and Wells will win pretty comfortably.
Wells has sophomore surge in her favour as well.
@FL, wrong that no replacement has been preselected
https://www.facebook.com/LNPLilley
Cheers,
BJA
Thanks BJA. I’m not on facebook and it wasn’t reported in the media so I didn’t realise.
Are you familiar with the candidate?
@FL, No
Uhhh, So who is the candidate BJA? The link does not work for me.
@ Daniel
It was reported in Fairfax higher-education director Vivian Lobo is the new LNP canidate in Lilley.
There were a few pictures on that facebook page of him and his volunteers signwaving but it’s been scrubbed, for whatever reason.
He’s listed now on the LNP’s federal team page with an email address but no phone number or postal address.
Possible liberal gain if the Labor vote fractures again
Lilley is usually not a swing seat and Anika Wells could have built up a personal vote. The big swing last time could be attributed to the loss of Wayne Swan’s personal vote
Are the Libs actually campaigning here though? They lost their original candidate.
The only signs I’ve seen in Lilley so far are for Anika Wells, though admittedly I’m usually only driving through the very periphery. Compare and contrast Dickson where Dutton yard signs and billboards are *everywhere*.
Will be a Labor retain. Moreton and Blair are more likely to fall than this, especially with the original candidate quitting.
Has the feel of the libs campaigning so it looks like haven’t given up and have a path to victory. Doesn’t seem like the kind of seat to buck the swing given it’s not a regional seat and has an expected sophomore surge. Labor to retain imo
The LNP’s Lobo has been busted for registering to vote at a false address in Lilley (she actually lives in the seat of Brisbane).
She argues she was planning to move to Lilley, but campaign commitments got in the way.
Even if that’s correct, you can’t enrol to vote at somewhere you might live in future – you have to vote where you’re living now, and the penalty for doing otherwise is up to 12 months prison.
This is two Lib candidates now who’ve given a false address to the AEC (the other being Beaton in Isaacs).
Correction: should be “he”, Vivian Lobo is a man.
Brisbane electors will probably tolerate an MP from an adjoining seat but I doubt if they will tolerate one who tries to pretend he lives in electorate when he in fact does not.
If he is elected we may have a by election within months due to likely prosecution post the election.
One more seat Labor now no longer needs to spend time and money defending.
Agree . I tnhink it is safe to assume Lilley will not be an Liberal sear after the election no matter what the swing is
Labor betting just went from $1.40 to $1.04
Reading into this more, did it really warrant the AFP getting involved?Dont the AEC have an independent review tribunal. Seems like a hammer looking for a nail. Surely there are more pressing things for the Feds to be looking into. Discretion and discernment are often good skills to employ in this situation.
ALP obviously in overdrive with the outrage like the guy committed some heinous crime.
On face value, the place looked pretty run down, he said tradies were supposed to fix it but as it is a rental there were delays. Not too far fetched- happens all the time with leased properties in Sydney waiting on repairs to be signed off by the landlord.
Sounds like the guy was getting cut through with his campaign prior to this revelation, which is why Labor dialled up the muckraking
He really wasn’t, but it’s not like Labor are going to look an electoral gift horse in the mouth. And while the outrage is mostly confected but it’s also very hard to believe that this was an ‘honest mistake’
It is not muckraking if the accusation is founds to be criminal. This is not an accusation that someone has 61 Corflutes up rather than ghe council limit of 60. This accusation is either criminal fraud or a false accusation
Lobo needs to be either cleared or prosecuted by Election Day.
He is entitled to the presumption of innocence something that the broad electorate never do.
For the purposes of tally room Lobo will lose the election. If reminds me of Jon Sullivan in Longman in 2010.
Complete overkill based on what I’ve read but you’re right the electorate will make their own judgments and normally are always quite harsh- as is there right.
This may become the new “section 44” with more candidates being exposed under greater scrutiny.
Ultimately if it ensures that candidates actually live in their electorate that is a good thing. Perhaps that should be extended to a 2-3 year holding period in order to be eligible to nominate
Difference between this and s44 is that it’s not a legal obligation to live in the electorate you’re running. Lobo didn’t need to fraudulently claim a vacant property as his residence just to have the democratic right to stand for election (allegedly haha). The only reason I can see for doing so is to be able to disguise the fact he doesn’t technically live in the electorate for the sheer banal politics of the thing (not that I think the vast majority of Lilley voters would even care, Wilston is like a 10 minute drive from Lilley anyway). And tbf a lot of people aren’t going to care that he lied about this either. But there’s no sympathetic excuse for Lobo’s actions that isn’t utterly partisan.