Kooyong – Australia 2022

LIB 5.5% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Josh Frydenberg, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Kooyong covers most of the Boroondara council area and a strip of the Whitehorse council area, including the suburbs of Hawthorn, Kew, Camberwell, Canterbury, Mont Albert, Surrey Hills and Balwyn.

Redistribution
Kooyong expanded slightly to the south-east, taking in small areas from Chisholm and Higgins. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 5.7% to 5.5%.

History

Kooyong is an original federation electorate, and has always been held by conservative parties, by the Free Trade Party for the first eight years and by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since 1909. It was held from 1922 to 1994 by only three men, all of whom led the major conservative force in federal politics.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Free Trader William Knox. He was re-elected in 1903 and 1906 and became a part of the unified Liberal Party in 1909. He won re-election in 1910 but retired later that year after suffering a stroke.

The 1910 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Robert Best. Best had previously served as a colonial minister and a Protectionist Senator from 1901 to the 1910 election, when he lost his seat in the ALP’s majority victory, and had served as a minister in Alfred Deakin’s second and third governments. Best returned to Parliament, but didn’t serve in Joseph Cook’s Liberal government or Billy Hughes’ Nationalist government.

At the 1922 election, Best was challenged by lawyer John Latham, who stood for the breakaway Liberal Union, a conservative party running to personally oppose Billy Hughes’ leadership of the Nationalist Party. Despite winning the most primary votes by a large margin, Best lost to Latham on Labor preferences.

John Latham was elected as one of five MPs for the breakaway Liberal Party (two of whom had previously been Nationalist MPs and retained their seats as Liberals in 1922). The Nationalists lost their majority due to gains for the Liberal Party and Country Party, and were forced to go into coalition, and the Country Party demanded Billy Hughes’ resignation as Prime Minister. With Stanley Bruce taking over as Prime Minister, the five Liberals, including Latham, effectively rejoined the Nationalist Party, and Latham won re-election in 1925 as a Nationalist.

Latham served as Attorney-General in the Bruce government from 1925 to 1929, when the Nationalists lost power, and Bruce himself lost his seat. Latham became Leader of the Opposition, but yielded the leadership to former Labor minister Joseph Lyons when they formed the new United Australia Party out of the Nationalists and Labor rebels. Latham served as the unofficial Deputy Prime Minister in the first term of the Lyons government (when they governed without the need for support from the Country Party), before retiring at the 1934 election. Latham went on to serve as Chief Justice of the High Court from 1935 to 1952.

Kooyong was won in 1934 by Robert Menzies. Menzies had been elected to the Victorian state parliament in 1928 and had served as Deputy Premier in the United Australia Party government from 1932 to 1934. He was immediately appointed Attorney-General in the Lyons government. He served in the Lyons government until 1939, when he resigned from the Cabinet in protest over what he saw as the government’s inaction. This was shortly before the death of Joseph Lyons in April 1939, which was followed by the UAP electing Robert Menzies as leader, making him Prime Minister.

Menzies’ first term was rocky, with the Second World War being declared in September 1939. He managed to retain power with the support of independents at the 1940 election, but after spending months in Europe on war strategy in 1941 he returned home to opposition within the government, and was forced to resign as Prime Minister and UAP leader. He was replaced as leader by Country Party leader Arthur Fadden, who was followed soon after by Labor leader John Curtin.

Menzies worked in opposition to reform the conservative forces, who suffered a massive defeat at the 1943 election. In 1944 and 1945 he put together the new Liberal Party, which took over from the moribund United Australia Party and a number of splinter groups. He led the party to the 1946 election and won power in 1949.

Menzies held power for the next sixteen years, retaining power at elections in 1951, 1954, 1955, 1958, 1961 and 1963, and retiring in January 1966.

The 1966 Kooyong by-election was won by Andrew Peacock, then President of the Victorian Liberal Party. Peacock rose to the ministry in 1969 and served in the ministry until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. He served as a senior frontbencher during the Whitlam government and became Minister for Foreign Affairs in the Fraser government in 1975. He moved to the Industrial Relations portfolio in 1980, but resigned from Cabinet in 1981 due to supposed meddling in his portfolio by the Prime Minister. He launched a failed challenge to Fraser’s leadership and moved to the backbench, although he returned to Cabinet in late 1982, a few months before Malcolm Fraser lost power.

After the 1983 election, Peacock was elected leader, defeating John Howard, who had served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party for the last few months of the Fraser government. Peacock led the party into the 1984 election, reducing the Hawke government’s majority. With rising speculation of a leadership challenge from Howard (still deputy leader) in 1985, he attempted to replace Howard as deputy leader, but the party room re-elected Howard. This caused Peacock to resign as leader and Howard was elected Leader of the Opposition. Howard led the Liberal Party to a bigger defeat in 1987. Howard was challenged by Peacock in 1989, and Peacock led the Liberal Party to the 1990 election. Despite winning a majority of the two-party preferred vote, Peacock didn’t win enough seats, and he resigned as leader immediately after the election.

Peacock remained on the frontbench under the leadership of John Hewson and Alexander Downer, and retired in 1994. Peacock was appointed Ambassador to the United States upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served in the role until 1999.

Kooyong was won at the 1994 by-election by Petro Georgiou, the State Director of the Victorian Liberal Party. Georgiou was a former advisor to Malcolm Fraser and a key proponent of multicultural government policies. Georgiou’s main opposition came from Greens candidate Peter Singer, due to the absence of a Labor candidate. Singer managed 28% of the primary vote, which remained a Greens record until the 2009 Higgins by-election, but it wasn’t enough to seriously challenge the Liberal hold on Kooyong.

Georgiou positioned himself strongly as a moderate within the Liberal Party and despite his impeccable credentials in the Liberal Party and as a policy advisor, he never held a frontbench role in the Howard government. He was openly critical of the Howard government’s refugee policies in the final term of the Howard government. He faced a strong preselection challenge in 2006, but managed to win more than two thirds of votes in the preselection. He managed to win re-election in 2007 with practically no swing against him, despite the Liberals suffering large swings across Australia.

In 2010, Georgiou retired, and he was succeeded by fellow Liberal Josh Frydenberg. Frydenberg has been re-elected three times, and in 2018 was elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party. Frydenberg has served in a number of ministerial portfolios, including as Treasurer since 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Kooyong has been trending to the left over recent elections, but Frydenberg’s margin is still substantial.

It seems like Monique Ryan is the main challenger to Frydenberg, and may be able to peel off those extra voters who wouldn’t vote Labor or Greens, and has a good chance of winning.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Josh Frydenberg Liberal 48,928 49.4 -8.2 49.2
Julian Burnside Greens 21,035 21.2 +2.7 21.1
Jana Stewart Labor 16,666 16.8 -3.7 17.5
Oliver Yates Independent 8,890 9.0 +9.0 8.5
Steven D’Elia United Australia Party 1,185 1.2 +1.2 1.2
Davina Hinkley Animal Justice 1,117 1.1 +1.0 1.2
Bill Chandler Independent 669 0.7 +0.7 0.6
Angelina Zubac Independent 539 0.5 -2.3 0.5
Others 0.2
Informal 3,033 3.0 +1.0

2019 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Josh Frydenberg Liberal 55,159 55.7 +55.7 55.5
Julian Burnside Greens 43,870 44.3 +44.3 44.5

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Josh Frydenberg Liberal 56,127 56.7 -6.1 56.4
Jana Stewart Labor 42,902 43.3 +6.1 43.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas: north-east, south-east, north-west and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three out of four areas, polling around 53.1% in the north-west and south-east, and 58.3% in the north-east. The Greens polled 53.8% in the south-west.

The Greens outpolled Labor in three out of four areas, but Labor outpolled the Greens in the north-east.

Voter group GRN prim ALP prim LIB 2CP Total votes % of votes
South-East 21.6 18.9 53.1 18,884 18.1
North-East 17.5 19.3 58.3 13,356 12.8
North-West 23.3 15.0 53.1 12,659 12.1
South-West 27.8 17.1 46.2 10,621 10.2
Pre-poll 20.5 16.8 57.2 29,217 28.0
Other votes 18.8 17.7 59.9 19,496 18.7

Election results in Kooyong at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Greens or Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens, Labor and independent candidates.

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268 COMMENTS

  1. Liberal hold, I don’t believe the Liberals will allow this one to seep away from them, They will throw everything at it if they think they will lose the seat, They would risk losing Higgins and Goldstein over this seat because a Treasurer losing his seat is unprecedented in Australian politics and is extremely unlikely to happen anytime soon. I expect them to sandbag resources here to prevent any further swing away from Frydenburg.

    Good chance this is one of the only seats in Victoria that swings to the coalition due to the reason I stated above.

  4. With the obvious caveat that no one knows what political fortunes will be like for the Coalition by the time of the election, in general they should be worried about this one. It swung very hard against Frydenberg last election, even though he largely avoided a lot of the negative attention trained on the rest of the Coalition at the time. That’s obviously not the case anymore. He has a much higher profile and for all the wrong reasons. He’s the chief cheapskate when it comes to the Coalition’s JobKeeper debacle and he’s saying something stupid and embarrassing nearly every time he’s on tv. He has, or at least had, respect in the party room but in general I think he’s a massively overrated politician whose talents are mostly relegated to not ruffling his colleagues’ feathers. He’s dimwitted, dull and cowardly. As a retail-politician you couldn’t ask for much worse. I’m sure he can fundraise as well as anyone else but I don’t see Liberal footsoldiers kicking in doors to save him in a bad election. That’s all before you get to the demographic changes and political realignment in inner East Melbourne. Everyone speculates him to be a leadership prospect, and frankly, in the event that Morrison loses the election, he’d basically *have* to become leader to save his political career entirely.

  5. Well if Morrison loses the election – who else in the Liberal Party could be the leader. Fair summary of Frydenberg (but isn’t all the L/N Parties retail politicians) Furtive?

  6. I honestly have no idea how a Liberal spill would shake out if Morrison left. My gut tells me the hard right will take over but I’m spitballing

  7. Furtive Lawngnome
    “”He’s the chief cheapskate when it comes to the Coalition’s JobKeeper debacle (and he’s saying something stupid and embarrassing nearly every time he’s on tv). “”
    This is just too fascinating . FL do you actually critically reexamine some of the things you say, before you post them. !?

    Just how much money would Josh have to borrow, print, & spend NOT TO BE “the chief cheapskate when it comes to the Coalition’s JobKeeper debacle ” in your not very humble opinion ? How much more (funding) would Chris Bowen be hurling at the situation ? (would YOU think ?) What would a hypothetical Labor govt be doing more, different, or better ?
    Conservatively it would take 2-3 DECADES to pay off the national debt, & don’t luxuriate, or hide in the facile fantasy that Australia won’t be forced to. Other people don’t have to give us THEIR MONEY ON OUR TERMS. How much of future generation’s opportunity, or capital, is it appropriate to SEIZE / or steal ? .
    Finance, fiscal constraints, money, are such grubby, “tedious” concerns as far as the Greens are concerned. However most of us are compelled to deal with, or at least consider such realities, & concerns, as they do affect our lives. Rather than simply dismissing the importance of such views, i wonder if you can deal with the rigour of seeing a point of view other than your own ?
    I’ve deeply considered your “bias” arguments from our last exchange, & concluded that they are just a convenient justification for NOT challenging, or defending beliefs, assumptions , & mis-typifications. However i do thank you for the opportunity, (or provocation) to identify through that, my own oversights, & assumptions.

  8. I don’t think I can wine, your arguments are just too logical and persuasive. I can’t reconcile my elitist fixations on the furloughed workers who were dependent on JosSeeker to pay their bills with the much more important need to systematically erode the tax base in favor of Liberal party stakeholders and those in the highest marginal tax bracket

  9. I’m interested to know how Victorians feel about Frydenberg’s attacks on covid lockdowns and state borders? It plays badly here in WA, but how does it play out with Victorians? I’m sensing there’s waning support for lockdowns this year compared to last year’s support? What’s the general mood in Victoria towards Frydenberg on his covid commentary?

  10. Sue,
    As a Victorian that is the case, however it depends where you are in Melbourne. The higher the numbers in effected councils the more area is covid fatigued. The closer you go into the city the more people support the lockdowns, whereas the further you go out less people are for lockdowns. I don’t however think it will be the ticket for the state or federal liberals winning here.

  11. Sue,
    This is the lockdown in Victoria where the straw has broken the camels back. People are really over it, sick of being locked up, sick of home schooling, students are sick of being at home, sick of small things in life like getting a haircut becoming impossible. In my workplace, we have got very honest about it – “sorry I lost the plot over the last few days and didn’t get much done” – and that is from the top down. Because social interactions are so limited, almost the only people you speak to are your work colleagues and there has been the odd “f***ing Dan” from quite surprising quarters.

  12. Sue as a Melburnian too I agree lockdown fatigue is at a peak right now, however one difference this time is that I think the NSW outbreak did water down some of the anger about it. Firstly it no longer feels like only a Victorian thing, and secondly NSW proved that lockdowns were needed.

    So my sense from people is that they’re more “over it” than ever, but also more understanding that it’s an unfortunate necessity than previously. And also, nobody is blaming this outbreak on our government unlike last year.

    The fact that 70% double dose freedoms are in sight now too has an impact in two different ways too. Positively, it is a light at the end of the tunnel and the mood that “Dan will lock us down forever” is gone, as he has committed to the reopening plan and nobody truly believes he won’t honour that (only the rusted on Lib voters say it, even if they don’t believe it). But negatively, it’s also adding to the fatigue because it’s like how the end of a long wait always feels like it goes the slowest. Even though we’ve been in this pandemic for 18 months now, the idea of 5 more weeks feels like forever.

    Overall though, I think Victorians’ frustration with lockdowns and this outbreak is more directed at the federal government this time. They’re angry the federal government pushed and encouraged NSW to let it rip. They’re angry and frustrated the vaccine roll out started so late. And they’re angry and frustrated that the federal government has favoured NSW so much in the roll out, in its language, and in its financial support. There’s a feeling we had to beg while Sydney didn’t even have to ask.

    Frydenburg is certainly going to feel a lot of that, but whether it’s enough to.cosr him the seat? I doubt it. Expect a margin closer to Higgins (3-4%) this time though I think.

  13. I should qualify that by saying I live in the inner city though, in a federal Labor seat and state Greens seat. And due to the 5km rule I have no idea if what I just described might be different in the outer suburbs. So what Bob said about more support for lockdowns closer to the city and less further out could very well be true.

    But given Kooyong is a wealthy inner city seat where people are working from home and less impacted by lockdowns, albeit a much more conservative part of Melbourne than where I am (St Kilda), I think the general feeling I described in my post above is probably true among Frydenburg’s voters too.

  14. Trent
    Doubtless you won’t be surprised that i disagree entirely with your “Victorian” views. Most especially with the “Dan”esque sledging of NSW- Fed govt. Really!.

    How is it that when the PM goes through his repertoire of propaganda, contrived progress/achievement successes etc it repels you. However when Dan does all the same moves with loads more deceit to boot it’s not offensive (at all ? ) !? They are the same achiever/performer personality type (3)

    What is & will be fascinating is that in 6-8 months we will receive a verdict from Victorian voters.
    If you are correct labor will lose no seats & gain at least 1
    If not labor could easily not win a seat, & lose Corangamite

  15. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/kooyong2022/comment-page-1#comment-756131

    Andrews has not been repeatedly been caught and or publicly flaunted favouring NSW over other states, despite being responsible for more than just NSW and the NSW government letting Australia down.

    Andrews has learned from his earlier mistakes on Covid.

    Andrews has not made a mess of the vaccine rollout.

    Andrews didn`t go on holiday to Hawai`i during the bushfires.

    Andrews didn`t seek an exemption for going home for Fathers day.

  16. Tom the first and best
    ALL RIGHT
    beat up, hyperbole, & ignoring the REALITY of outbreak leading to greater engagement of vaccination(in NSW) all fact & reality.

    1/ WHAT exactly has Dan “learned”? I’m not seeing much. CAN’T REMEMBER any apologies, acknowledgement of failure, mistakes even “errors” !!. Are you for real ?? Dan is the best solid gold liar i have ever seen. AND HE IS NEVER WRONG. the PM is not even in the same class, a reserve grader at best.!!

    2/ EXCTLY WHAT WOULD ANYONE ELSE HAVE DONE DIFFERENTLY ???. any govt would have gone for AZ and made it here. maybe. maybe someone would have given us more foreign vaccine ????? maybe…….
    3/just TOTALLY irrelevant
    4/ditto SO WHAT?

    I COULD WRITE PAGES (HUNDREDS) ON ALL THE DECEIT ,LIES, BETRAYALS ETC, ETC OF (nearly) ALL THE TYPE 3’S IN PARLIAMENT FROM ALL PARTIES.
    Thing is they are all much the same because IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT PARTY THEY ARE IN !!!!!!. GOT IT!!!!.

    Next time TRY to give me something intellectual or at least thoughtful please

  17. winediamond
    I kind of agree that Andrews has been a little bit inept, mainly considering the clearest leadership was when Merlino was in charge. Has he learned anything? Who knows. At least he knows he looks like the children’s book character Inspector Bubblewrap.

    However, not taking an offer of a lot of Pfizer and being potentially 80% vaxxed by April is very clearly a policy failure. Unfortunately, a number of elderly people were/are holding out for the Pfizer vaccine, and as such, over 100 people have died in this very clearly controllable outbreak.

    Yes, not all of Sydney has been as affected by Covid. However, it’s hardly fair that people get to go to the beach unmasked in Bondi (with a miniscule police presence), while further west people get surveilled by helicopters while trying to have a picnic masked.

    Same with Melbourne. Unfortunately, the same problem happens every single lockdown. POC and CALD communities are more likely not to trust the government, and also some specific communities get poorly translated and vague information about how to stay safe.

    As much as people might deride him for being far too cautious, the way that McGowan locks us down before there is a problem is an exemplary method of protecting people, because it’s an actual snap lockdown, it surprises us, and we know that everything will be back to normal in a few months.

    As for gossip about random backbenchers, I can’t wait until the authorities can open up that Phil Edman laptop because I have a feeling a couple of current pollies here in WA would get shown the door. Probably not as bad as WA Inc but we’ll soon find out I guess.

    Julian Burnside was never going to run again (for GVIC at least) because he’s said some (even for the Greens) far too anti-Israel things, as well as pushing for mandatory vaccinations, which the Greens do not support. Given the turmoil of the last few years, the Greens are wanting to pick squeaky-clean candidates for their best seats as not to fuck everything up, which is why Steph Hodgins-May, Sonya Semmens, Alana Galli-McRostie and Rhonda Pryor aren’t exactly highest-profile but amazing candidates none the less.

    Celeste Liddle is a cool choice in Cooper, given she has a higher profile than most, as a Eureka Street columnist, and also a significant Twitter following. None of the stuff she’s saying is controversial (as a left-wing First Nations person) but Labor Emily’s List types (including the CEO herself) are infuriated that she dare run for the seat that she’s lived in for two decades. I think Labor just try and gatekeep the “influential and well-known left-wing candidate” category (Garrett, Ananda-Rajah) and get really nasty when the Greens present equally well-known candidates, like Liddle and Nolan.

  18. Ryan
    1/”little bit inept” a little mild don’t you think. Consider the collusion & conflict of interest (dare i suggest corruption !?) . when there is eventually the RC INTO the hotel security contracts etc Dan’s union masters have their grubby paws over every major policy decision in Victoria…..
    Inspector Bubblewrap ? No. no way. Dan sees himself as “the Great Leader” which is why Paul Murray christened him “Chairman Dan” (Mao). Thing you need to understand is that when someone is that completely fixated, regardless of how high functioning it’s as if they have, & operate under a pathology.

    The vaccine stuff is all debatable. Let history be the judge. Obviously it was imperfect. My understanding was that our inadequate orders were hijacked my other countries & Biden ? My point was no government would have done different.
    ALL OF SYDNEY has been affected trust me. The police have enforced differently. outdoor transmissions are an oxymoron.
    McGowan has been LUCKY. His extremism has been rewarded. It is not admirable, just fear based politicisation parochialism, & projection. Piss weak grandstanding.

    Burnside is a disgusting human being. Mrs WD worked with him 40 years ago before he inherited his fortune ($30 mill+?) Redfern legal aid . He is an anti semite, & hypocrite of the first order. He is extremely fortunate as are most high profile Greens that the people they defame, & smear have so little interest in prosecuting them.
    It would be amazing if they could remember what they are supposed to be doing (for others) instead of throwing excrement everywhere & constantly indulging themselves, & their pathological perfectionism.

    As for the Greens candidates : What relevance can they have, whilst the Greens have an economic programme that would immediately annihilate the economy, & destroy the country ?. How can you expect to increase the Green vote nationally, with such insanity ?

    Do you understand why i believe the libs are making a mistake putting the greens last on HoR ballot papers ?
    I will check out Celeste Liddle

  19. Ryan: a lot of safe seats come to be regarded by party insiders that monopolised them almost like party property. They treat internal preselections like the main event instead of the actual election, and when another party similar on the political spectrum doesn’t respect that it’s ‘their turn’, they get very cross. Happens with Shooters/One Nation/Nationals, and it happens with Labor and the Greens. It’s pretty funny really.

  20. Furtive

    Just like Fowler.

    winediamond

    The Greens economic policy is designed to Robin Hood. Climate change is a concern to a huge majority of Australians, regardless of our opinions of it, and the major parties dragging their heels to the nth degree will inevitably lead to an increase in the Greens vote. People turn to the Greens in a crisis (i.e. post-GFC (2010))

  21. Ryan, that is doubtful considering 2019 was meant to be the so-called ‘Climate Election’ and yet the ALP not only lost, but went backwards. People care about climate change, yes. What they want to do to address it? That is a very different question.

    As for the Greens, their vote has plateaued at around 10%ish for a decade and has shown no signs of increasing. Examples from recent times show that when the Greens come close to exercising real political power (Federal 2010, Tasmania 2010), the public doesn’t like what they see and punish them accordingly.

    Can’t help but agree with all the comments on Burnside. Most people I know in the legal profession (of which I am one) see him as intelligent – but vain, arrogant and self-interested.

  22. Why would Frydenberg lost this time if he didn’t lose last time?

    The Greens don’t have their star candidate this time and Labor are not winning Sir Robert Menzies old seat outside of landslide years.

    Demographics clearly are going against the coalition and of course they are neglecting key issues such as climate change and it clearly isn’t helping them but Frydenberg is extremely high profile and is unlikely to be toppled, He is no John Howard.

    Can’t recall there ever being a time in Aussie politics where a treasurer lost his seat.

  23. Wreathy of Sydney
    Thanks for saving me the trouble of writing all that !. agree with every word. WRT to CC who pays for the policy effects/consequences is the real question. A question that the left has never ever been prepared to receive let alone consider or answer.
    Your point about the Green vote plateau is well made. It will be interesting to see if the green vote “urbanises” further.
    cheers WD

  24. How did I know that straight after my comment, winediamond would show up and not understand the difference between explaining an observation of the wider community’s view (which was the question asked), and personal opinion?

    Whether you agree with Victorians’ views on Dan is irrelevant. The question asked, and my answer, wasn’t whether either Dan or ScoMo have done a good job. It was how I sense that Melburnians are currently feeling about it on the ground, right or wrong and whether you agree with their opinion or not.

    So when you say you “disagree with my Victorian views”, are you saying you disagree that progressive inner Melbourne voters have that view, or you disagree with the view itself?

    If it’s the latter, that’s totally irrelevant and means you just didn’t comprehend the question I was answering.

  25. Trent
    Cute . So i ” just didn’t comprehend the question I was answering.” Clearly i did, & implicitly deferred to your expertise on “progressive inner Melbourne ” views.
    In fact i ASKED YOU a question clearly(& precisely) which you ignored, & apart from reframing & dismissing ( whether either Dan or ScoMo have done a good job”) it as some kind of irrelevant opinion. Well done !.

    You also ignored my contention that the election would give a (relative) verdict on these views.

    I could indulge in some teasing about the latest incarnation of “Victorian victim consciousness ” !!!! ::
    “”They’re angry the federal government pushed and encouraged NSW to let it rip. They’re angry and frustrated the vaccine roll out started so late. And they’re angry and frustrated that the federal government has favoured NSW so much in the roll out, in its language, and in its financial support. There’s a feeling we had to beg while Sydney didn’t even have to ask.”
    However you seem to the things very literally, & seriously. I do hope the ending of lockdown provides you with some relief & ease.
    WD

  26. It’s not expertise, it’s an observation.

    My observation is that inner Melbourne voters are pissed off at the federal government more than they are pissed off at the state government.

    I did not provide my view on it at all. I provided my observation of what I see, as I walk the streets of inner Melbourne and see “F*** SCOMO” t-shirts, something I did not see in 2019.

    I even qualified my comment by stating that I am only observing the experience from a very left-leaning suburb and that may be different to the experience in Kooyong and especially different to outer suburbs.

    You can rant about your views on Andrews and Morrison all you like. I’m not going to indulge in that and share mine because that’s not what I’m here for, and not what this site is about. This is a psephology website, and my comments are about electoral trends and predictions. Not partisan cheerleading for my own personal views, which I have not actually expressed.

  27. Trent
    Fair enough. However i didn’t feel i was contesting you’re observations. I’d have thought expertise was an acknowledgement, not something else.
    I’ll take issue with “you can rant about your views on Andrews and Morrison all you like” they are my observations (all right views maybe) of how similar their behaviours are, & how differently they are perceived.
    ATM Andrews narrative would affect the electoral result, as this is influencing the perception of morrison’s leadership. As your observations attest. IIRC leadership is one of the biggest determiners of voting.
    i’d have thought this is in line with electoral predictions, if not voting trends
    I still wonder if the current trends will last or prevail another 6-8 months

  28. I guess I’m a contrarian here, but I honestly don’t think Covid will have much impact politically one way or the other.

    Especially in Victoria, there’s enough blame to go around everywhere that I predict supporters of both sides will just ‘dig in’, and blame as much as possible on their opponents, while giving their side all the praise.

  29. Having lived in Kooyong, I think the nuclear subs issue will be a factor along with COVID. It is a pretty greenish sort of electorate – not ALP much. Also while Josh appears competent enough, he is really not a particularly engaging personality. In ordinary times this does not matter much but these are not ordinary times.

  30. The only good things that ever came out of the submarine contract saga are the sketches featuring the Kraken on Mad As Hell.

  31. Mark Mulcair
    Now you’ve done it !
    Now you’ve gone too far, way too far !
    PRAISE !!!!!?????
    For whom !??
    On what basis !!?
    How can you justify such a provocative comment !??
    After this shit show !?
    What happened to the careful moderation we have come to expect from you !?
    What a controversial contention !!.

    As Trent has identified feelings are running very high ATM re Covid, the Vac etc. Blaming the Fed govt
    Will this depth of feeling abate in 6-8 months ? By contending that there will be no real influence you seem to be implying that would be the case ?
    cheers wd

  33. Ryan Spencer
    “Robin Hood” !!!!. Wow that is so ironically ridiculous. If only it were true.
    It’s akin to a pedophile identifying as a childcare worker !!.

    As a young Green perhaps you don’t see the “conflict (s) of interests” that i do with my “old Green” friends.
    Ive said this before.
    Most have inherited or will soon inherit strongly ($millions) 25 % tax INCLUDING the family home. Only ONE has ever had the integrity to confirm she is prepared to see her children pay this tax.
    Have married wealthy partners.
    Have sent their kids to private schools (ending public funding grants) likely cost $20billion.PA.
    Have huge carbon footprints with all the usual OS trips, holiday homes toys etc.
    That is just off the top of my head.
    My blithely hypocritical friends just presume that “these problems” will go away…….somewhere…. where ….or they just ….won’t happen !.
    In their fifties there is the diehard hardcore still believing .Most having been seduced / Succumbed! (by/to reality). Hence to age demographic of Green voters. So the choice, or challenge, is become more mainstream, or remain on the radical fringe.
    Incidentally this will be the last “CC election”.

  34. Sorry wine but when you talk about how Greens are like pedophiles the rest of your nonsense just sounds like white noise to me.

  35. Political Nightwatchman
    I didn’t .
    Grow up
    Economically the Greens are more, & GO FURTHER than Robin HOOD as i clearly defined

  36. Furtive Lawngnome

    I didn’t .
    Grow up
    Economically the Greens are more, & GO FURTHER than Robin HOOD as i clearly defined

    sorry PN

  37. You did, and that sentence wouldn’t make sense otherwise unless you’re referring to Ryan personally, which is hardly better.

  38. Furtive Lawngnome
    Ive already responded directly, & clearly provided context Stop trying to conflate something out of nothing. It’s as melodramatic, & ridiculous as the original premise.

  39. Wow that is so ironically ridiculous. If only it were true. It’s akin to a pedophile identifying as a childcare worker!

  40. It’s actually disgraceful winediamond considering I am a child. There is no reason to use a slight difference in policy (Greens vs Robin Hood) to compare childcare workers and pedophiles. You’re the melodramatic one.

  41. Deja vu PM Gillard’s misogyne speech
    I’m getting a lecture on appropriateness, manners, offensiveness from card carrying members of the Greens Party . I feel like I’ve been taken into an alternate reality, or dimension. It’s doing my head in…..!

    Paralleling the most outrageous misrepresentations possible , even imaginable, is hardly some kind of authentic comparison between childcare workers Pedo’s or anyone else.

    Maybe i should take Richo’s advice “when your’e in a hole stop digging son!”. It is possible iv’e gone too far? It has happened before…….!. People do get upset with me from time to time…..

  42. Frydenberg now fronting the government’s environmental policy damage control campaign and trying very hard to make a big deal out of, uh, almost, kinda, maybe wanting a net zero target… by 2050. It’s become something of a Coalition ritual in the lead-up to an election but it’s unusual for the Treasurer to be the face of this kind of operation- you’d expect it to be either the prime minister or, you know, the environment minister. So more evidence that Frydenberg’s feeling the heat in Kooyong, and possibly trying to secure his succession in the event of defeat with a bit of half-hearted pandering to the Turnbull wing. As Chris Bowen said, Josh really has ‘net zero credibility’ on this given his track record. Lucky for him, Turnbull was the last (only?) ‘moderate’ Liberal MP who actually cared about emissions reduction, and that faction that Birmingham inherited know they don’t have the numbers to get their guy in over Morrison or the hard right, probably ever again. Not without many, many head-rolls.

  45. alp and green 2pp is almost identical
    the left drift against the lnp will not endanger the libs yet maybe in 10 years time?

  46. I dont know if this is a long term trend in Kooyong. For example at the 2007 election there was virtually no swing against the Liberals neighbouring Higgins also recorded one of the mildest swings to Labor. In 2016, the Liberals recorded one of their best results in Kooyong in 20 years, a similar result to what they got in 1996 despite it being a much closer election. Goldstein also recorded a very strong result for the Liberals in 2016. Adam Carr’s analysis of the 2007 election showed the “Doctors Wives seats” had actually the lowest swings to Labor in the nation. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/commentary6.shtml. I do believe at the last election the dumping of Turnbull and Climate change had the biggest impact impacts in the most affluent/educated seats. The long term trend of this seat depends how climate change politics will be going forward. The Labor party would be wise to IMHO to let the Greens or a high profile independent fight for this seat. At the last election they should have spent more time in Pakenham and less time on Glenferrie Road.

  47. Look at where Labor’s efforts got them in Kooyong.
    Absolutely nowhere. To be honest they clearly didn’t give a stuff about the candidate either.

  48. They lost a few points on primaries in the face of a well known Greens candidate. They still improved their 2PP vote by 6 points, pretty much the exact same 2PP swing that Higgins had.

    Kooyong’s demographics are really pretty similar to Ryan and Brisbane, and both of those seats are rightly considered vulnerable to both Labor and the Greens. Of course it’d help if the ALP had a climate policy to take to them that wasn’t dogshit.

  49. FL, I would say yes Ryan is the Kooyong of Queensland. Similar, Leafy and Affluent suburbs. However, i wouldnt use Brisbane electorate as a comparison as it contains the CBD. The area of Brisbane east of Breakfast Creek (Ascot, Clayfield etc) is similar to Kooyong. In 2016, both Brisbane/Ryan recorded swings to the LNP unlike Dickson Or Longman. Prior to 2010, these suburbs were in Lilley and i believe that under the old boundaries it would not have been won by the LNP. It is important to remember Brisbane was one of only two seats in 1996 that was Labor held in QLD.

  50. Yeah they’re not exactly similar, no seats are. Ryan for example has some relatively low socioeconomic areas, particularly around Ferny Grove/Keperra etc, pretty far from the likes of Kew and Canterbury, or Fig Tree Pocket for that matter. But in the aggregate they aren’t so different, and in 2016 Turnbull was leader, the Libs had a scintilla of credibility on climate action, and people weren’t paying 6-700 in rent for 3 br apartments. All three electorates are becoming younger, more secular, more progressive and less likely to own their own homes. These are exactly the sorts of seats the Coalition are on the nose with. Not to mention Albo whipped against the tax cuts specifically to appeal to exactly this sort of seat, so Labor might as well try to win it.

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