Isaacs – Australia 2022

I wonder what the result would have been last time, had the Liberal candidate not imploded.

The margin was only 3% going in…..it might have got interesting.

If the areas east of Springvale Road and the M11 are removed, the seat will become really interesting. Dandenong and Keysborough are extremely safe ALP areas while the rest of the seat is 50/50 with some Liberal pockets like Dingley Village and Paterson Lakes. In the latest redistribution, the Liberals proposed making the electorate consist of the Kingston LGA and Liberal-voting Beaumaris. That could easily tip the seat into the Liberal voting side of the pendulum.

Agree with the comments above, at the last election this seat and Lyons were missed opportunities for the Liberal party due to poor choice of candidates. A future redistribution that which removed Greater Dandenong Council will make it much more competitive. In the latest redistribution, Labor was adamant that the part of Dandenong, south of the Railway should be included in Issacs, when the AEC originally proposed that it be removed and replaced with Lyndhurst (Casey Council). The Coastal suburbs in Kingston while 50/50 now will likely trend Liberal as they become more affluent. The state electorate of Carrum highlights this trend. It was first won it 1996 against the state trend and at the 2010 and 2014 state elections the Liberal TPP in Carrum was higher than the overall result. Last time the Liberals held Issacs it included Black Rock/Beaumaris. However, even now even if it did not include Black Rock/Beaumaris it remains winnable provided that as much of Greater Dandenong is removed as possible as the coastal suburbs are more affluent than they were 25 years ago. I would argue that East Bentleigh could be transferred from Hotham and Greater Dandenong transferred out and this would be a better community of interest.

In the current environment I think labor will hold here with a swing in their favour however, this seat is not a safe ALP despite the margin & could be up for play in future elections.

Nimalan Sivakumar
You are on to something here. The boundaries are an issue, as is the previous Lib candidate , as are the changing demographics.
As for a missed opportunity: That is probably stretching it . Dreyfus has a very firm grip on this seat. In 2019 we had a detailed discussion about his merits, or in my view the lack thereof. My disdain is overcome by the obvious reality of his success , & stature. Sometimes it’s not a case of being wrong, just that others do not, Or will not see what we see.
What is compelling about Isaccs is that IMV it is (at least one of) the fulcrum(s) of statewide sentiment vis-a- vis Labor-Lib. IOW perhaps we will see swings in seats like Isaacs, rather than safe Lib seats ?. What would a swing of 2-4% here signify ? Particularly against a statewide trend. Or to put it another way perhaps a move here may signal a reversal of the trend toward Labor/green in VIC ?

I feel that there’s a new breed of Labor marginals which are becoming increasingly difficult to ever peel off them. Seats like Cowan, Perth and Isaacs seem like they’ll be in the Labor column for a while.

WD, agree with you. I did not factor Dreyfus standing in the seat in my commentary. Interesting to know amount of his vote is personal. Still, feel the margin is inflated due to the Liberal candidate being dis-endorsed. At the 2019 federal election in Melbourne, there were swings to labor closer to the city such as Higgins, Goldstein and Macnamara and swings away from Labor in Outer suburban areas such as Casey, La Trobe and Gorton. This area is more middle suburban so i am think it would been a small swing either way (like Menzies/Jagajaga).

Nimalan Sivakumar
WRT the lib candidate giving Dreyfus (Paul Murray calls him QC Dufus !) a ‘free hit” probably. But Dreyfus took it & put it away cleanly. if we look at the booth results they are devastating. Plenty of double digits & there are now only 2 lib booths, he won everything else.

It is a repulsive reality, but one that ought to be acknowledged. QC Dufus will b doing well if the swing against him is less than 3%
cheers wd

We do have to remember that the Victorian Liberals aren’t exactly well loved.
As much as seats like this would be marginal in a line-ball affair, Victoria is not a line-ball state. It’s a solidly Labor state which will likely stay that way given the ineptitude of their opposition. Same in WA at the moment.

Ryan Spencer
LOVE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH IT.!!
WA isn’t anything like VIC in any way. The libs in WA WERE DESTROYED. In Victoria they are just asleep, (some might be cruel & say coma!!) & Michael O’Brien is not likely to wake anyone up. Andrews will end the “solidly Labor state” you describe. All the libs have to do is find someone to explain it to the punters (a communicator !) unlike O’Brien !
This seat can slip, without QC Dufus it’s marginal. Just remember that everyone in the party hate him.

winediamond,
I’m curious as to where you are getting this information about the labor party hating Mark Dreyfus.

Bob
It has been mentioned intermittently over the years a number of times in the oz.
I guess you have to ask yourself how you would be dealing with someone like Dreyfus. The supremely smug arrogance, & self satisfaction. There is no doubt whom he believes is the smartest bloke, the most towering intellect, the most penetrating thinker in any room he is in.!
Plus he’s like my old man – he had a jewish mother – they always think they have given birth to the second coming !, If it happened once it can happen again !
In the enneagram i believe he is a reformer/perfectionist type 1 fixation. They always think they are right, can’t admit when they are not, & usually expect others to meet their standards. They can be hypercritical, judgemental, tactless & exacting. So they don’t win many popularity contests, & make enemies easily.

Mrs WD mk1 (my ex) is a type 1, but she is a wonderful person.

WD
I wouldn’t use the Oz as a source for parliamentary gossip, merely because they published an op-ed during the black summer blaming arsonists for most of the bushfires in NSW, which was a massive falsehood.
Admittedly most of the people who’ve been attorney-general and shadow attorney-general (Cash, Dreyfus, Porter, Brandis and all the way back to Lionel Murphy) have all been a bit up themselves to be completely honest. Irritating highfalutin robots basically.

Ryan Spencer
Sorry if you don’t recognise the OZ as the national media outlet, in a higher league of it’s own, you’re simply not dealing in reality.
As for the bushfires there is an occasional natural ignition, but most are arson. Unless you want to line up with my mad Green cousin (who sent her daughter to Ascham elite private school ) & blame “CLIMATE CHNGE”!. Or whatever preposterous claim Jordan Steele – John made at the time…..

BTW
I see Christian Porter very differently than you do. I think he was the best AG we had since Sir Garfield Barwick. The ABC have destroyed his political future, but there will be consequences. Porter is a high functioning & fairly enlightened reformer/perfectionist type1 like say Clint Eastwood. Look at the differences between Porter, & –Cash, Campbell Newman, Connie Ferranti- Wells, Dreyfus & Penny Wong.

winediamond
There’s a reason the Oz is barely available over here in Perth, and that’s because there’s no appetite for a newspaper so dull and yet so ludicrous at the same time.
From an ABC FactCheck article from 2020:
“in Victoria, emergency services personnel have been at pains to point out that lightning strikes caused the big fires — in East Gippsland and the north-east. Likewise, in NSW, emergency services personnel have pointed to dry lightning storms as the cause of most of the big fires. Nor is there any evidence to indicate bushfire arson has increased to “unprecedented” levels, as some in the Morrison Government have suggested.”
From David Bowman, a bushfire expert:
“One of the signatures of arson is that arson [occurs] in proximity to people. Many of these fires have been burning in remote and inaccessible areas, so there is a significant lightning component.”

The bushfires during Black Summer created by arsonists did not cause any significant damage, and arsonists were arrested and charged. Climate change drying out the landscape simply exacerbates the effects of dry lightning on the Australian landscape. This drying out is mostly caused by the burning of fossill fuels, whether it be fuel in cars or coal in a power station. Any political party which wants to keep burning coal (and build more coal-fired power stations than before) is quite simply stuck in the past with their energy and environment policies. It’s not climate alarmism, it’s climate truth, and the sooner government acts to stop it in its tracks, to stop vested interests in oil and gas controlling government and opposition policy, and to save the earth while we still can. The melting of the icecaps has already seen coastal erosion and destruction of homes across the region. Port Beach near Fremantle barely exists anymore, beaches near Collaroy up near you on the northern beaches have been eroded, leaving homes uninhabitable, and homes in poorer nations in the Pacific have been obliterated during higher intensity storms and flash flooding.

The reason I’m whingeing about the Oz is that if it wants to be relevant in the modern age (considering its losing subscribers and readers massively) that it needs to share facts and actual news to the Australian community as the national (and only) broadsheet, not blow the trumpet of climate deniers, vaccine sceptics, election conspiracy theorists and blatant COVID misinformation.

Cheers
Ryan

Ryan Spencer
Thanks for your detailed response.
Sorry but i’m unenthusiastic about a climate debate. If you want to discuss it with genuine curiosity that’s different. You have my number.
I’m not a man who makes quick judgements , or is unwilling to test views. However i find “believers” in anthropogenic CC to be incurious, fanatical, & hysterical. You need to understand that i’ve been hearing dire predictions of the future since i was about your age- some 35+ years ago. only one thing of consequence has actually happened.
WA is insulated from our disasters of desal plants & the failing NEG . Our water, & power costs have quadrupled in 25years. This regressive impost, & impact on the most disadvantaged has been the greatest inequity, & social injustice. The obvious contradiction between green propaganda & reality is truly breathtaking. The hypocrisy in not recognising this result /outcome is simply disgusting, & unpardonable. When i start hearing apologies, & self correction, instead of preaching, & lecturing then i might pay some more attention.

BTW Ive been watching erosion at Colaroy since i was younger than you (70s) & it’s been happening since the 30s. By far the weakest argument you have ever offered me.
Inadequate hazard reduction……….cause of ignition irrelevant .
Won’r argue bout the oz i disagree

If you want accurate prophecies of the future, only us mystics have got it mostly right. Millions of us have been at it for centuries. I’Ve written about all this before
cheers wd

I think the AEC stuffed up the preference distribution of the biggest (pre-poll) booth here (possibly getting the share of minor party votes to each of Labor and the Libs mixed up). Thoughts?

https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-24310-97617.htm

Yes I think you’re right. You can download a breakdown of preference flows by primary vote candidate. Labor received 24.3% of Greens preferences and 41.5% of AJP preferences, both of which seem to be around the wrong way. They received 26.5% of Rise Up Australia and 27.1% of UAP preferences, which seem to be about right.

Overall the Liberal Party won the AJP and Greens preferences at that booth by 759 votes, so that’s a turnaround of 1518 votes. This would increase the Labor margin from 6.4% to 7.2%. Not nothing.

Well spotted PJ!

Should contact AEC.

It seems arrogant for any Lower House member, in any Parliament, state or federal, to not live in the electorate they represent. How many in the Isaacs community know that Mark Dreyfus doesn’t live there?

At the last state election in NSW, at least 15 elected MPs did not reside in their own electorate:

Labor:
• Lynda Voltz (Auburn ⇐ Rockdale)
• Tania Mihailuk (Bankstown ⇐ East Hills)
• Greg Warren (Campbelltown ⇐ Camden)
• Sophie Cotsis (Canterbury ⇐ Rockdale)
• Guy Zangari (Fairfield ⇐ Mulgoa)
• Julia Finn (Granville ⇐ Parramatta)
• Chris Minns (Kogarah ⇐ Rockdale)
• Jihab Dib (Lakemba ⇐ Canterbury)
• Anoulack Chanthivong (Macquarie Fields ⇐ Campbelltown)
• Steve Kamper (Rockdale ⇐ Miranda)

Liberal:
• Melanie Gibbons (Holsworthy ⇐ Heathcote)
• Tanya Davies (Mulgoa ⇐ Wollondilly)
• Stuart Ayres (Penrith ⇐ Mulgoa)
• Kevin Conolly (Riverstone ⇐ Hawkesbury)
• Mark Taylor (Seven Hills ⇐ Castle Hill)

Source:
https://candidates.elections.nsw.gov.au/

The boundaries were recently redrawn (and also redrawn between 2011 and 2015) so some of those MLAs may have been moved out of their seat that way.

@Anton Kreitzer

The only MLAs who were redistributed out of their electorate in the post-2011 redistribution were Melanie Gibbons and Kevin Conolly. My list is based on the 2019 election and the 2019 boundaries.

@Nicholas

Thanks for the clarification

Federal members not living in their electorate seems to be a peculiarly Melbourne Labor thing particularly for some MPs who hold outer suburban seats and for whom the chic inner city or upmarket inner suburbs seems to hold much greater attraction. And it is not limited to federal politics – state ALP members and ministers do likewise.

I used to live in this electorate, I think it’s quite well-known that Dreyfus lives in Malvern. I know Kelly O’Dwyer used to bring up the fact that he lived in her electorate quite frequently.

I don’t think most people care. People care about the issues and Dreyfus is engaged on both the federal and local issues.

Similarly John Alexander lives much further from his electorate and it hasn’t seemed to hurt him either because he’s considered an active MP.

Honestly, it comes up every election but if one side is talking the issues and the other is talking where the candidate lives, reckon most people judge that on its merits.

Amusingly last election the Lib candidate was both from outside the seat and then disendorsed and the Libs still campaigned primarily on Dreyfus living a bit outside his seat. That may work the first time around but after over a decade as the MP, and with an ageing government that should be running on its achievements, rang particularly hollow in my opinion.

Do candidates that live outside their electorate vote in the seat they live in or the seat they contest?

Libs have preselected a Camberwell-based restauranteur named Robbie Beaton to run here. Not the kind of candidate you’d pick for a target seat, but probably self-funded.

Greens running Alex Breskin who ran in 2016 if memory serves.

Winediamond is right, Dreyfus has a firm grip on this seat.

My personal view is the former state MP for Carrum, Donna Bauer should have a run for this seat maybe next time she would be the best canadiate to run against Dreyfus. She was a popular local state MP and deputy mayor of Kingston Council.

Are there any independents running this year in ISAACS?

Isaacs will see a stronger than average swing to the Liberal Party in 2022. And not only due to their Jeremy Hearn disaster in 2019. 2022 candidate Robbie Beaton has been campaigning full-time for months being very active at local shopping strips etc. He doesn’t seem to have put a foot wrong yet. His profile on this has been higher than Dreyfus (who lives out of area). Contrary to a comment above, Beaton does have local credentials, having operated a local hotel in Mordialloc for decades.

Dreyfus has however fought back, promising $20m funding for a new pool Kingston Council is planning for Mordialloc. I’m guessing he’ll hold on but it won’t be as easy as 2019.

I haven’t seen anything for Beaton yet. Just a whole bunch of signs for Dreyfus through Mordialloc, right down to Carrum/Patto.

The non-Libs are ramping up. Greens were at last Sunday’s Seaford Farmers Market. While Labor was at Chelsea this afternoon to capture pre-dinner shoppers.

Heaps of signs for Dreyfus around the middle of the electorate and a clutch of UAP signs, as well as a ubiquitous UAP couple handing out stuff in Parkdale and Mordialloc. Beaton and other right wingers have jumped on the vocal anti-Skyrail bandwagon in relation to the Parkdale level crossing removal. However, that issue affects a relatively small area of the electorate, and as a State government matter, is unlikely to shift many votes against Dreyfus

Anti-Skyrail has some genuine local support, but then usually ended up being an astroturf campaign. The Libs put plenty of time and resources into promoting it, but at the last state election the areas with the most anti-skyrail activity swung TOWARDS Labor.

The vast majority of people in the area affected by the Skyrail on the Dandenong lines (Murrumbeena, Carnegie, Hughesdale area) love it now too. My mum lived in Murrumbeena at the time and among all her friends I’ve never really heard a bad word about it from any Murrumbeena residents.

It’s one of those things where the opposition mostly comes from those rusted onto the other side of politics who use the issue more as just a vehicle to attack the government. I don’t think it’s something that generally sways swing voters, most of whom are reasonable enough to see the benefits.

Especially where a train line was a real barrier splitting a suburb in two, a tunnel doesn’t do much to change that and still only offers minimal options to traverse that boundary whereas Skyrail opens that boundary up and provides new green space and parking. And that’s certainly the case on those Frankston line crossings where the rail line was a barrier to the beach for the majority of residents in those suburbs.

This is correct – living locally, I can say the Carrum elevated station opens up the area much better than the trenches at Chelsea, Edithvale and Bonbeach, which may as well be defensive moats for anyone getting from one side of the shopping area to the other.

Most of the Skyrail was in the state seat of Oakleigh. In 2018, after years of anti-Skyrail campaigning by the Liberals and their main media mate, Oakleigh’s voters awarded an 8 per cent swing to Labor. Case dismissed.

That’s mostly correct, although I’d point out that rather than it having most of the planned Skyrail, the seat of Oakleigh just had the section that created the most NoSkyRail astroturfing attention as it looked like a seat that was potentially a Lib pickup.

There were as many kms of Skyrail in the section from Clayton through Noble Park etc, but those seats are safer for Labor, so David Davis didn’t make much noise about those.

But we’re getting off-topic… Back to talking about Isaacs.

Labor hold here with a swing to them.

As a few have said above, there’s some anti-Labor sentiment in Parkdale, but it’s being delivered by a Lib who’s also an anti-vax, everything-is-a-conspiracy foghorn, which is pretty transparent and I’d suggest not very effective.

Lots of Dreyfus signs up and down the highway. Libs ones yet to pop up.

Dreyfus got a local commitment for a pool in Mordialloc if Labor is elected. Looks like Libs are holding their dollars for commitments in Chisholm, Goldstein and Dunkley. It’s a shame they put in so little effort really.

Increasingly confident in prediction that this won’t be close on election night.

Problems for Beaton re his residency or is it just a beat-up?

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-live-in-camberwell-victorian-liberal-candidate-admits-to-listing-false-address-20220428-p5agwm.html

Isaacs isn’t trendy enough to have resident local MPs – his opponent Dreyfus lives in Malvern.

The story’s point here is that he decided to lie about where he lived, and he got caught out, idk if Dreyfus has done the same though

If Dreyfus did the same, the Liberals would have mentioned it every single election by now. Besides, it’s already well known that he lives in Malvern.

Dreyfus has never lied about where he lived.

Beaton’s problem is that he’s actually broken the law by giving a false address when registering as a candidate (and on the electoral roll for that matter). So potentially could be very serious for him.

So what happens next? If Beaton has admitted that he’s enrolled in the wrong address (even appreciating his highly unlikely claim that it’s an honest mistake – surely when you run for parliament you have to fill out your address at some point of filing the nomination) does that mean he can be booted from the ballot? Or do they just let it run and then work it out in the case that he wins?

Despite being sneaky and terrible judgement, I don’t expect it will do his campaign that much damage in a political sense. But interesting if there’s any legal action taken by the AEC here – does anyone know of a precedent for this?

He’s not going to win anyways so I don’t think there’s going to be too much drama. That being said, Labor will probably seize on the opportunity and say something on the lines of the Morrison government lying just like how Beaton lied about his address.