IND 1.4% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Helen Haines, since 2019.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
North-eastern Victoria. Indi runs along the Murray River and stretches inland to cover Wodonga, Wangaratta, Towong, Mansfield, Murrindindi, Indigo, Benalla and Alpine council areas, and part of Strathbogie council area. The major cities in the seat are Wodonga and Wangaratta.
History
Indi is an original federation electorate. Apart from four elections when the ALP won the seat, Indi has almost always been won by the Coalition parties and their predecessors.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Isaac Isaacs. Isaacs was a radical member of the Protectionist party and did not get along with most of his party. He was appointed Attorney-General in Alfred Deakin’s government in 1905, but in 1906 he was appointed to the High Court. Isaacs served on the High Court for 24 years. In 1930 he was appointed Chief Justice by Labor Prime Minister James Scullin. Shortly after, Scullin decided to break with tradition by appointing an Australian-born Governor-General, and chose Isaacs. Isaacs served as Governor-General until 1936.
Indi was won in 1906 by Anti-Socialist candidate Joseph Brown, a former Victorian state MP. Brown joined the merged Liberal Party in 1909, although he was a fierce critic of Alfred Deakin. He lost Indi in 1910 to the ALP’s Parker Moloney.
Moloney held Indi until the 1913 election, when he lost to the Liberal Party’s Cornelius Ahern, but Moloney won it back in 1914. Moloney lost Indi again in 1917. He went on to move across the border to the neighbouring NSW seat of Hume, which at the time covered Albury. He held Hume from 1919 to 1931, and served as a minister in the Scullin government.
The Nationalist Party’s John Leckie, a Victorian state MP, won Indi in 1917. He lost the seat in 1919 to Robert Cook of the Victorian Farmers’ Union, which became the Country Party.
Cook retained Indi at the 1922 and 1925 elections, but lost the seat in bizarre circumstances in 1928, when he failed to lodge his nomination papers. The seat instead was won by the ALP’s Paul Jones.
Jones was re-elected in 1929, when Cook attempted to retain his seat, before he lost Indi to the United Australia Party’s William Hutchinson in 1931. Jones went on to serve in the Victorian Legislative Council from 1938 and 1958, and left the ALP as part of the split in 1955, ending up in the Democratic Labor Party.
Hutchinson held Indi for two terms. In 1937 he moved to the new seat of Deakin, which he held until his retirement in 1949.
Indi was won in 1937 by the Country Party’s John McEwen, who had previously won the seat of Echuca in 1934. He served as a minister in the Liberal/Country governments from 1937 to 1941.
McEwen left Indi to take the new seat of Murray in 1949, and he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet in the new government. He was elected Country Party leader in 1958, and when Robert Menzies retired in 1966 he became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party. When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired in 1971.
Indi was won in 1949 by Liberal candidate William Bostock. Bostock held the seat until the 1958 election, when he lost to the Country Party’s Mac Holten. Holten was a former footballer, and he served as Minister for Repatriation from 1969 to 1972.
In 1977, Holten was challenged by the Liberal Party’s Ewen Cameron. Despite topping the poll on primary votes, Holten lost when Cameron overtook him on Labor preferences.
Cameron held Indi until his retirement in 1993. He was succeeded in 1993 by the Liberal Party’s Lou Lieberman, a former Victorian state MP and minister. Lieberman served on the Liberal backbench until his retirement at the 2001 election.
In 2001, Indi was won by Sophie Panopoulos (now Mirabella). Mirabella served on the backbench for the entirety of the Howard government, becoming a parliamentary secretary in 2007 and a shadow minister in 2008.
At the 2013 election, Mirabella was defeated by independent candidate Cathy McGowan, who won a very tight contest by 439 votes. McGowan was re-elected with an enlarged margin in 2016.
McGowan retired in 2019 and was succeeded by fellow independent Helen Haines, elected with McGowan’s support.
Assessment
Independent MPs will often grow their margin after their first term in the job, but it can be harder for independent MPs who have succeeded another independent. The Liberal Party wouldn’t require much of a swing to win here, so it’s worth watching.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | 35,426 | 35.1 | +7.3 |
| Helen Haines | Independent | 32,664 | 32.4 | -1.1 |
| Eric Kerr | Labor | 12,202 | 12.1 | +2.0 |
| Mark Byatt | Nationals | 9,538 | 9.4 | -8.3 |
| Helen Robinson | Greens | 4,255 | 4.2 | +0.3 |
| Shane Wheatland | United Australia Party | 3,980 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Jason Peter Whalley | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 2,891 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Informal | 4,601 | 4.4 | -2.2 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Helen Haines | Independent | 51,886 | 51.4 | -4.1 |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | 49,070 | 48.6 | +4.1 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | 63,332 | 62.7 | +7.7 |
| Eric Kerr | Labor | 37,624 | 37.3 | -7.7 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Wodonga and Indigo council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. The remainder were split into East, South-West and West.
Independent candidate Helen Haines won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (vs the Liberal Party) in three areas, ranging from 52% in Wodonga to 57.4% in Indigo. The Liberal candidate narrowly won in the west (50.1%) and the south-west (50.3%). Haines also won 51.4% in the pre-poll.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 11.0 | 49.9 | 10,118 | 10.0 |
| South-West | 18.9 | 49.7 | 8,180 | 8.1 |
| Wodonga | 14.0 | 52.0 | 7,816 | 7.7 |
| Indigo | 9.6 | 57.4 | 6,530 | 6.5 |
| East | 9.3 | 52.3 | 6,435 | 6.4 |
| Pre-poll | 11.3 | 51.4 | 50,937 | 50.5 |
| Other votes | 13.7 | 49.7 | 10,940 | 10.8 |
Election results in Indi at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Helen Haines, Labor and the Nationals.
Helen Haines will hold on, the liberal party had there chance in 2019 but missed out on it & the liberal party are not very popular so that will hurt there chances here.
The big increase in independents standing in coalition seats you would think this seat would be a forgone conclusion. But in The Saturday Paper it was reported the Liberals have indicated their polling well here. They haven’t named a candidate yet though, and chances still are that Helen Haines will hold on. But this seat may not be a forgone conclusion.
PN
The big issue here is how hated Andrews is. He is blamed for the lockdowns. There were NO cases in most of this electorate. MY contacts in Myrtleford Wodonga etc say the resentment is universal.
Haines is no McGowan, she doesn’t have the record, or presence. No one seems to have met her, or even know who she is.
However her biggest problem is the fading memory of Sophie Mirabella. The thing that could save Haines, is the rumour of Greg Mirabella running for the SENATE OR EVEN HERE !!!. Surely the Liberals couldn’t be that stupid !!??. Could they !?? YEP It really might happen …..!
Haines will win again.
No sign of a Lib or Nat candidate here yet. The Nats advertised for nominations at the same time as Nicholls but it seems nobody stepped forward. They probably can’t afford to pay for campaigning in Indi when they have to defend Nicholls.
Coalition should tople HH. She’s not Cathy McGowan and the coalition took a big chunk from her in 19. Only 1.4% in it
If the UAP can harvest 10 k people who have had enough of the bull..it from labor and liberal also Haines herself then we can line the streets and cheer Clive when he rolls into town for a visit. But at least no Nazis will be trying to lock us down and jab us on pain of being outcast from society and destitute.
Maybe he will have some hydroxychloroquine in the boot, touche !
Helen Haines will probably greatly increase her margin, I think she’s performed pretty well in her first term and will be rewarded for that.
I live in Wangaratta at the moment, have begun seeing Haines signs around the place and getting pamphlets in the mail but nothing from the lib candidate for what it’s worth
Haines performed well ?
No integrity commission
No push back against the trampling of civil rights and the poisonous jabs.
Throwing in her lot with the ‘green bilionaires’ all eager to get their snout in the taxpayer trough.
I read ‘Bright Green Lies’ and once I saw how little energy is produced by renewables and how much toxic waste they produce into landfill that was enough for me. And it was written by deep green eco anarchists !
Hope UAP or One Nation can pull this off and inject some reality into our dire situation.
Barmah Bloke
Not much one MP, let alone an indy, can do about getting an integrity commission going if the government isn’t interested in it, though she did try, with her bill and attempts to get it to be debated. The UAP will not win any seats this election, let alone Indi. Their only prospect is the QLD senate, where a battle with Pauline is due. I would say more, but I feel I would be wasting my breath.
Agree with Douglas, UAP and One nation are unlikely to win any lower house seats as their primary vote will be quite low and are unlikely to receive a majority of preferences from other minor parties. The Liberal Party do have a chance to gain/flip this seat and defeat Helen Haines, as she doesn’t seem as high profile compared to her predecessor, Cathy McGowan.
If someone is “optimistic” enough to believe the Libs stand a chance at defeating Haines they’re free to take the $9.00 odds on Sportsbet. Personally, I don’t see a world where she is elected in 2019 with much lower name recognition and a less unpopular government, but is defeated in 2022. There is a very common trend of first term incumbent independent/third party MPs getting a boost in the next election, save Rob Oakeshott for obvious reasons.
Douglas, say no more. If you have had three shots of MRNA and are eager for a fourth (in under 12 months), then every breath is precious.
Adda, those ‘obvious reasons’ for Oakeshott is that he hitched his wagon to a left wing govt that wanted to cap and trade some bilionaires into trillionaires, and got rolled.
Lot of wish fulfillment going on. 2022 is a very different beast to 2019. UAP and PHON got 10,000 votes in Indi without even trying, when we were still in the land of Unicorns and Rainbows. It would be disingenuous to assume there won’t be a right wing backlash to the rank authoritarianism we have just seen and still see.
So my 2c. Saw Helen Haines out and about at the local Wangaratta woolies with a fair amount of supporters. There are lots of signs for her around the place, especially in private houses. I’ve seen a few liberal ones, but a lot less than Haines even when you drive around the rural areas. Heard a liberal ad for Lyman on the radio but that’s it.
Honestly suprised there’s not much effort from the libs here considering how they need to win seats to offset near certain losses in boothby, Swan etc but it barely seems like they are trying so far
@Xenu your forgetting the shy liberal voters. most wont admit to being a liberal voter toa pollster or their neighbour and put a sign out because they fear retribution from the radical left and anti conservatives
@Ben are you sure about this boomer take? I don’t buy it for a second and doubt liberal voters fear retribution. I just think they are just too uninspired to want to put out a sign. That or it is simply too unfashionable of a brand to do so. The liberals do not champion any inspirational, interesting or grand causes, what is the point of putting a boring sign out for the liberals? Two word slogans like “economic management” are pretty uninspiring to want to put on your lawn, or a t-shirt, or a bumper-sticker, lets be honest.
Supporters behind the independent candidates feel that they are personally part of a revolution in Australian politics. They feel emboldened to be standing up to the mainstream parties that have dominated Australia for a century. The independent candidates sell an elaborate yet easy-to-understand plan for the future that inspires their supporters. All of these make their supporters want to volunteer and flaunt their support for status!
What “liberal supporters” (the ones that are at least regularly engaged in politics) do for status, rather than publicly rallying behind their candidates, seems to be: seeking approval from others, parroting slogans and takes in the comment sections of pay-walled news-articles in the legacy media as well as engage in this form of collective victim-mentality with their ideological peers.
I also might add that to be fair, a lot of Coalition’s supporter base generally lives in low-density, car-dependent regions including private, tucked-away suburbs, estates & cul-de-sacs. All places where their yard signs probably aren’t going to cop very many eyeballs. Yard signage is mostly only effective in dense, mixed-use, inner-city regions with low car dependency but high mobility, social-amenity and pedestrian traffic. Places Greens and Labor generally do well, but also potentially “teal” independents.
both independants were only elected because off out of the ordinary circumstnaces. Spohie Mirabella was a city candidate dropped into a urban seat and was considered an outsider and McGowan was a local who barely defeated her in 2013. managed to increase because she was a true independant and HH got in on her ticket libs clawed back most of that margin in 2019 and reduced it to near nothing. Stegall attacked Abbott on his climate change views and his other positions. kerryn phels got it in because turnbull spat the dummy after he got roled the same way he got the job and decided to burn the house down on his way out. why do think sharma beat her? the so called independants are being bankrolled by vested interests who hate the liberals. whilst i think the Warringah candidate is controversial and that may cause them to lose there the Indi candidate is far better so an upset is not off the cards
I can only speak to what I see around the place. There’s frankly nothing really from the liberals and I see Haines’ team around the place quite a bit on weekends and the like. Libs are doing the bare minimum so far here.
There is no shy Liberal effect. The Liberals are barely palatable to their own traditional voters. Haines will win with an increased majority, it’s beyond doubt.
yea you usally only need to campaign like that when your seat is under threat if she was a shoe in they wouldnt need to be doing that. you dont see the PM going to very Safe liberal sats or albanese campaiging in labor heartland. just because you dont see them camping out at the local woolies annoying people as they shop doesnt mean theyre not there
@Ben, everything that you mentioned still does not discount the authentic enthusiasm that the supporters of these independent candidates have accrued. They run energised campaigns that attract a lot of volunteers and donors.
Comparing this to the campaigns for the Coalition, in a lot of important divisions they are suffering from a huge enthusiasm deficit and are struggling to find enough committed volunteers to hand out how-to-vote cards at booths. Now I concede that they might just roll home comfortably with votes from unenthusiastic, “busy”, disengaged and/or low-information voters, (or so-called “shy” ones). But this is just the reality of grassroots participation in the election campaign.
To be fair, it is not just these independents that animate enthusiastic grassroots support either. A lot of the micro-parties punch well above their weight in enthusiasm, volunteers and on the ground support too, especially when considering the turnout to rallies and protests.
You also mention vested interests but both of the major parties are operated predominantly on donations from vested-interests. I implore you to observe the proportion of grassroots out-of-pocket donations that these independent candidates receive from their supporters rather than from lobbyist groups and major Australian businesses. It puts the major parties, particularly the Coalition to shame. Is the $100,442 in Facebook ads that the Josh Frydenberg campaign paid for any more legitimate than Monique Ryan’s $83,405 Facebook spending?
If you are truly frustrated with the legitimacy of funding towards parties and candidates for elections, I would suggest that you at least also direct these frustrations towards the major parties.
Sorry to pick on you as well as the Coalition on this topic but I just had to rebut those talking points. I come at this in good-faith and have no personal partisanship towards or against the independents, likewise with the majors.
When I say vested interests I mean left leaning Labor and green backers who know those parties have snowballs chance in he’ll of winning so they fund the independents instead. They fund them with the sole goal of toppling liberal candidates not because they believe in them
Incumbent 3rd party and independent candidates who won at a general election (not by-election) don’t lose. I challenge anyone to tally up counter-examples, I literally can’t think of one.
Helen Haines will secure a sophomore surge swing and hold easily.
Rob Oakshot
Ben, Rob oakshott actually increased his margin at the 2010 election compared to the 2009 by election. But he probably would have had a big swing against him had he sought re election in 2013.
The existing independents are probably safe enough this time round.
But if Labor is elected and the economy deteriorates(both likely), they will be in trouble next time round unless they are opposed to the government.
I think this is a good election to lose, quite frankly.
Ben – “yea you usally only need to campaign like that when your seat is under threat if she was a shoe in they wouldnt need to be doing that. you dont see the PM going to very Safe liberal sats or albanese campaiging in labor heartland. just because you dont see them camping out at the local woolies annoying people as they shop doesnt mean theyre not there”
Morrison was campaigning in Capricornia just yesterday. Capricornia has a margin of 12.4%.
Bennee
Does a forfeit count as a loss?
I’m thinking that the thing that brings a seat home to a true representative, is the litmus test of a hung parliament.
This occurred in Victoria in 1999, & nationally in 2010.
All gone within two, or one terms, respectively, unless they sided with their electorate (as judged on 2PP terms)
Yes it does and I meant Tony windsor but all the same. Yes if two teams are about to compete and one forfeits then it counts as a loss
Bennee – Paul Filing, Allan Rocher and Graeme Campbell all lost in 1998 having won as independents in 1996. Phil Cleary is a debatable case as he first won in a by-election but he did then win a general in 1993 and lose in 1996. There are also stacks of examples at state level – Craig Ingram, Russell Savage and Susan Davies in Victoria, Janet Woollard in WA, Don Pegler in SA, and quite a large number from NSW, including Peter Draper, Dawn Fardell, Dawn Fraser, Ivan Welsh, George Keegan, David Barr and more.
I think it’s definitely true to say independent or third party MPs elected at general elections are difficult to dislodge, but we shouldn’t be fooled by the very small sample size at federal level into thinking it’s impossible.
Having said all that, this hardly seems like the election where incumbent independents would lose.
No, the 3rd party incumbent not re-contesting does not count as a loss, that would be absurd.
My point is that when they do stand they win. Helen Haines is standing.
Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott both made the mistake of sitting it out for 1 election, dashing their incumbency advantage against the rocks. The hard thing for 3rd parties and independents is getting elected in the 1st place (in a general election). If they can do that they can have the seat until they die or retire.
he didnt recontest because he knew he was a goner. like the french army in ww2
Agree Ben that many candidates who don’t recontest are pretty much either going to lose or will face the humiliation of being forced into opposition. This was the case with NSW 2011 (lots of Labor members retired and the ALP lost in a landslide) and also 2013 Federal where many high profile Labor MP’s also retired.
The fact Helen Haines is running again suggests she has a good chance of winning re-election, especially in an environment that is slightly Labor leaning at the moment.
@Yohn An Tee
I’m pleasantly surprised many of them don’t simply just contest and lose and gain the free $105k like George Christensen.
because they arent in it for the money
I have a question about this electorate arising from some thoughts about possibilities for the next redistribution.
How much objection would there be if Moira Shire was transferred into Indi in exchange for Murrindindi and Mansfield?
Should Victoria lose a seat, the next redistribution committee is really going to struggle with addressing the need for a 50-50 crossing of the Yarra River.
The change I’ve just mentioned would allow for Casey to hybridise the Yarra Ranges and Nillumbik and surrounding areas, in the spirit of the state electoral district of Eildon. It’s one possible solution.
@ Nicholas not show if the numbers would work. but if Casey took parts of Nillumbilk shire i am thinking it would also take semi-rural eastern Manningham to allow Menzies to more of Whitehorse LGA and Maybe Deakin can take parts of suburban Yarra Ranges.
*Not sure
@Nimalan Yes, that’s exactly what I’m thinking.
@Nicholas and Nimalan, it would allow Menzies to consist of the northern half of Whitehorse LGA and the western half of Manningham which is pretty good community of interest especially given the direction the AEC has gone with the seat in the last redistribution. That would also allow Chisholm to have clear boundaries encompassing Canterbury Road, Monash Freeway, Warrigal Road and the Dandenong Creek which would be have a much better community of interest than the current messy boundaries. Kooyong could also be pushed further into Boroondara LGA to either High Street or Gardiners Creek which would get rid of the current awkward tail in Glen Iris.
@ Dan M and Nicholas, Agreed as a Manningham resident i feel eastern semi-rural half can fit better with Casey rather than Deakin which has little history of covering semi-rural areas. The state seat of Warrandyte from 2022 will extend into Yarra Ranges LGA and Nilumbik. It is often forgotten that Yarra Ranges is actually a neighbouring LGA to Manningham. Agree Kooyong can take all of Boroondara council, There is a few other seats etc that i am hoping the next redistribution can fix for example i dont think East Bentleigh and Noble Park are a community of interest nor is Dandenong with Patterson Lake or Mentone. I am hoping this will be fixed at the next redistribution.
they wont lose a seat unless the popluation goes down
Ben – The latest ABS population statistics issued on March 17th 2022 published September 21 data and Victoria’s population has indeed fallen by 32,700 in the preceding 12 months (sept 2020 to sept 2021). In fact Victoria’ population is currently less then when the determination was made in July 2020 on June 2020 data. In July 2020 AEC gave Victoria 38.54 (or only 0.04 over the entitlement hurdle), currently rule of thumb is Victoria is about 38.15 (the 39th seat is gone), my estimate of Victoria in 2023 if keeps on it’s current track is that it will be circa 37.62 (or 38 seats).
Less discussed is that both WA and Qld appear to be on track to gain a seat in 2023, for Qld we won’t really know until the determination itself as it will pretty line ball. Basically the driver I’m hearing is FIFO worker relocating to ensure they aren’t locked out by border closures.
Second point we you play with the figures you find on 38 seats you find currently north of the Yarra is short 0.55 of quota, south of the Yarra 0.45. This can change, but I’m not convinced we’ll see Hotham go. Instead we could see the AEC resurrect its 2010 attempt to abolish Nicholls (formerly to be abolished seat of Murray).
The reaction to Nicholls being abolished would be just as negative as last time and it would force them to try again, I don’t think they’ll take a second crack at doing that.
Erratum: Seat’s name of Murray was renamed Nicholls.
I played around with some ideas for a future redistribution with 38 seats, using figures from the last redistribution.
The division that ended up disappearing was Hawke.
With Bruce pulled out entirely from Dandenong LGA, and Deakin moving east towards the Yarra Ranges, both Chisholm and Hotham not only survived, but were able to have very good boundaries – Chisholm sits between Canterbury Road and the Monash Freeway. Hotham comprises Monash LGA south of the Monash Freeway and most of Dandenong LGA. (The Kingston component is transferred to Isaacs, and the Glen Eira component to Goldstein.)
Now, of course the numbers will change in the future. But in this experiment, there appears to be a lot of wriggle room for both Chisholm and Hotham to survive.
With the reopening of the borders to international students and other immigrants, I expect that Victoria`s population comparative decline will reduce. Birth-rates might rebound a bit as well. Seat 39 is a goner but I doubt seat 38 will be at risk in future.
The work from home regional relocation boom probably makes abolishing regional seats harder.
I think we are all agreed that Seat 39 is a goner and it will turn into WA seat 16. If the trend continues (probably unlikely) – Seat 38 would disappear post 2025 and become QLD Seat 31.
The regional seats have held their voters so it would seem that a metro seat would go – probably SE suburbs but possibly not – Jaga Jaga could conceivably get the chop.
@ Nicholas, Good proposal how much of Greater Dandenong LGA would remain in Issacs under your suggestion.