Hughes – Australia 2022

Moderate – assuming a 14 May election it is 6 weeks and counting down. The Libs could have sorted this weeks ago and moved on. It is just stupidity and they have basically gifted a safe seat to someone else. Of course, they should have dropped Kelly in 2016 or 2019, he was saved by a Captains pick then. Even the Victorian Liberal Party – as lazy and useless as they are – hsd their candidates sorted last year in winnable seats. The Libs are a rabble and deserve to lose.

Morrison basically has to call it this weekend if May 14 is gonna be the date, and given so many preselections are still up in the air, not to mention the court case, I’m thinking it’s gonna have to be May 21. Unless he goes absolutely bonkers and proves the split election conspiracy theorists right.

ABC reporting now that the federal election has forced candidates on NSW Libs, yet the court case is still unsettled. Dunno what’s going on with Lilley. Still seems very unlikely he calls the election this weekend. You can imagine those candidates will be flat out next week just getting basic election material printed and delivered, let alone organising campaign volunteers and whatnot.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-02/federal-liberals-intervene-to-make-nsw-preselections/100961474

federal executive*

As a general rule, it’s certainly better to have candidates sorted early and with strong local involvement. We can also definitely agree that the Libs have been utterly shambolic in this regard.

That said, I don’t think there’s much evidence to suggest that candidate choices really have much of an impact on election outcomes (unlike the United States). Sure there are outliers like Fowler 2010, Gilmore 2001 etc. But more often than not, electors either don’t know or care and will simply vote for the party they want. So while this messy preselection process might look like it’s damaged the Liberals to us inside the beltway, I don’t think it’s really gonna matter on election day.

It is not necessary to call the election this weekend for May 14. He needs to give 33 days notice, so next weekend will suffice.

Oh I thought it was 6 weeks notice. My bad.

The Liberals have finally selected Jenny Ware as the candidate for Hughes. She put her hand up for preselection months ago and is reportedly a well regarded local. The Libs could have got this sorted and not gone through the whole Alex Dore nonsense. Should they lose the seat a whole lot of heads should roll – and not that of the candidate.

again the local liberal party members were not given a choice. Also there is a court of appeal case pending this is technically re the 3 seats North Sydney,. Farrer and Mitchell but if ruled against then also applies to these other seats. I think this seat is the only one which should have a strong liberal lean. Morrison cannot call an election until thje result of the legal action is known. What do the troika do if there is an adverse court ruling. Appeal? What a mess?

Mick
Jenny Ware probably would’ve been picked anyway if there was a proper preselection so it’s not the end of the world.

Ryan Spencer – correct. The one choice of all of them where the chosen candidate had the local numbers – and on paper looks the best choice.

Peter Thompson is the candidate for the greens. https://greens.org.au/nsw/person/peter-thompson

Georgia has been campaigning hard. I’ve seen her at my door, at the local shops, at the train station (which is the only place I saw the candidates last election). Her supporters pretty frequently too. Hard to know if she’s changing anyone’s mind.

I got a mailer for Craig today. “Fighting for Freedom”. The back is coated with selected YouTube comments stating how amazing he is. It’s unclear exactly how many are voting members for Hughes.

Peter Tsambalas candidate for Labor is withdrawing from running for Hughes due to Section 44 issues from his Greek heritage. It isn’t clear who Labor will nominate as Peter ran unopposed for the nomination. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/07/section-44-strikes-again-labor-candidate-for-hughes-quits-race-due-to-greek-citizenship-concerns

Another Albo pick? Maybe Steve Waugh- Labor have been trying to get him for years

The liberals are doing their best to lose this seat…. to whom does not matter

Labor have no chance in this seat so if the Liberals do not win it and Craig Kelly is returned, the Libs should be ashamed of themselves. Should have won this one back in their sleep.

What a fascinating seat. A Lib who has been parachuted in (Jenny Ware) with presumably a near 10% margin (Despite Kelly being the incumbent) no ALP candidate (at this stage) due to issues around Section 44 (Who in the ALP failed to perform their due diligence in time?) Craig Kelly, being one of the most polarising politicians of our times and having the financial backing of Clive Palmer, Georgia Steele, an Independent with the backing of Climate 200 and who has received some media coverage on Sky news and the commercial TV networks and another Independent in Linda Seymour who has the endorsement of a local grassroots community organisation calling itself ‘We Are Hughes’. Both Independents are running on a platform of there being further action on Climate Change and the introduction of a Federal Integrity Commission, as well feeding off the increasing disenchantment that voters have with Party politics. I also note that both Independents have been actively campaigning since before Christmas.

Logic would suggest that the Libs will regain this seat, but with a reduced margin (Taking into account opinion polls) However, depending on how much money Palmer throws at the seat, the Right vote may be spilt, but one might expect preferences to flow to each other. The Left vote might be a bit trickier. The ALP candidate (presuming they stand one?) will have little to no time to establish any type of meaningful profile. I sense that the two Independents (both Left leaning) will more than make up the numbers, to the point that they will be a real nuisance to the three major parties and Kelly. There is no telling where their voters will direct their preferences.

If things are close on election night, this may be one of the seats that determines who forms government, whether that be majority or minority government.

It is harsh to say that Jenny Ware was parachuted in – she had nominated for the rank and file preselection and she is a local.
As for Craig Kelly – there has never been anything to suggest that there is any residual love for him in the electorate. He has also sold his house and bought a new one on the Central Coast so it is pretty obvious he has no plan to stick around.
As for Section 44, the major parties are no pretty rigorous as they have a chance to be elected – methinks there quite likely to be a few minor party candidates who have a Section 44 issue.

Jenny ware parachuted into the seat. What rubbish!! A shire local all her life, she nominated for selection as soon as the noms opened. Please check your facts before posting such rot.

Apologies ‘Redistributed’ and ‘Moderate’. My comment about Jenny Ware being parachuted in was incorrect and I apologise unreservedly. I should have checked my facts first

I’ll admit it is quite hard to see this slipping from the Coalition. It is more of an outer suburban seat, not exactly the sort of place where a teal or “Voices” independent would do well. Don’t think Steele will amount to much here. Without the Liberal next to his name, I’d suspect Kelly flops, perhaps doing a bit better than the average UAP candidate.

The margin is a bit too much for Labor to overcome. If this seat is close on election night, we’d have had a Labor landslide.

My feeling is that the Libs could get a primary vote in the low 40s and still be OK here unless one of the independents gets over the top of Labor and then it could be tight. My other feeling is that this is not the type of seat where Labor or the Greens will lose too many votes to the independents. The number of candidates will help the Libs here as each preference distribution will leach some off. I would be surprised if Craig Kelly gets to 10% of the vote.

Additionally the Libs have selected the kind of candidate who fits the seat perfectly. Professional, local, moderate woman with a great local narrative. Everything Kelly wasn’t.

Moderate that is wrong. She was parachuted into the seat actually. The only reason you defend her is because she aligns with your side of the political spectrum. At least I call out my party when they are wrong.

This is nothing but a captains pick by the prime minister. And he says he is doing it to protect “women” well personally I believe more in merit. However I think he’s only doing this to “pretend” he supports quotas.

I’m not attacking the candidates credentials as I have no doubt she is a hard working Australian. However candidates should always be chosen by the local branch members and never parachuted into the seat by top party officials who should have no business but in their own seats.

And don’t get me wrong. I believe it was also wrong for my party to parachute Kenneally into Fowler. But just because Labor does it gives no right for the Liberals to do it either.

All the candidates that were chosen by the prime minister or by top party executives of either major party should and will lose on election night (Remember Warren Mundine?)

I’m with you Daniel – I don’t like meddling with local branches or quotas at all.

Daniel: A voice of reason from the ALP side. I shall enjoy reading your reasoned, objective and candid comments as this election campaign runs it’s course.

Given that Ware would almost certainly have won a local ballot, it’s a stretch to say that she was parachuted in all but the strictest sense. The other captain’s picks are a different story.

Not that I have any understanding of the branch, but I recall it was expected to be a contest between Ware and Melanie Gibbons? Does Ware really have enough support to easily beat her, or is the assumption that Gibbons backs out of a hypothetical local ballot at the urging of higher ups?

Ware would have comfortably won a local ballot, is a long serving member of the party (time out of the party for work purposes) with deep roots in the shire. She has worked as a lawyer in the private and public sectors for 25 years.

Put simply shes everything KK isn’t in Fowler.

Hey Ben, looks like the listing here is missing the new ALP candidate, Riley Campbell – a Kirrawee local
https://www.theleader.com.au/story/7703036/riley-runs-for-hughes
https://rileycampbell.com.au/

On the ground, it certainly feels like Georgia Steele is everywhere, and other candidates are barely visible. She’s supposedly outspending everyone and making waves on Sky news and running ads on 2GB. With Labor seeming to run dead in the seat and Ware reportedly having trouble raising funds and vollies, Steele might just get there on preferences?

Agreed Shire tragic. Came back from holiday to Georgia corflutes everywhere. Steele winning on preferences is definitely what I’m hoping for. Seems like a stretch given every commentator doesn’t see the seat in play at all. In the end, after having Kelly as my local member, I’m grateful that Ware is moderate and the plan to house an out-of-area right-aligned Dore didn’t come to fruition. I became a citizen to put Kelly LAST.

Apparently there are two candidates with the last name Seymour on the ballot. The independent and the previously unannounced PHON candidate. It seems like this seat is just setting itself up to be a confusing mess on election night.

Piece yesterday in the Australian indicating the Liberals might be a bit worried about this seat. Preference wise the Libs put independent Linda Seymour second, but the other independent Steele second to last, after both Labor and One Nation, and they’ve done some polling in the seat. I’d love to see those results!

Kelly corflutes are common in the North-West Holsworthy part of the electorate, and apparently in the central area where he used to live but rare elsewhere. This is probably where he thinks he will gain the most support. The central area was very strongly liberal last election. Kelly might get third in a few of the booths in these areas.

Both independents and Ware are from the east part of the electorate and it seems like a lot of the campaigning is going on here and in the south where Steele and Ware have their offices. The east and south were generally more softly liberal, and east had a higher greens vote (7 – 12%) overall than central and north so this is probably where the independents hope to do well and would need to do really well to shift the seat.

If the liberals are having a bad night, this could be an interesting one to watch.

@Ben Raue the Margin here is actually 9.8% rounded, as the Liberal 2PP was 59.847%

Odds on Sportsbet now have are tied between Liberal and Georgia Steele. This comes after the release of a poll showing the Liberals at 37% and Steele at “under 40” (according to the Australian’s reporting). Considering the very much non-teal demographics this seat, I’m extremely skeptical of those poll results and of the notion that this seat represents a genuine chance for a climate indie. Perhaps someone in the electorate might be able to indicate if there are large chunks of Liberal voters that somehow voted for Craig Kelly in past elections but now are going for the independent.

To put it another way – if a teal candidate can win Hughes, then they would basically be contenders to win any suburban seat. That flies in the face of what appears to be the priorities of voters in outer suburbs (general kitchen-table stuff) which lead them to pick the major parties at the ballot box. Highly educated electorates are those more likely to vote based on climate policy or anti-corruption, which is where the greens and teals are doing best.

The dynamics of this seat are it is quite wealthy.. includes none of the Illawarra. This combined with the antics of Kelly and the lack of a fair liberal party preselection may make this ly teal chance.. despite it being a very different area to say North Sydney. Also the alp candidate would probably not poll that well as he was a last minute choice. People at this election will pick the candidate best able to beat the liberal especially if they don’t think the alp candidate can win

It wouldn’t be that weird for that to be the case.

This time round, ones who actually agree with Kelly’s opinions will vote Kelly, rusted-on Libs will vote Ware, and the moderates will probably vote Steele.

Last time all three groups would have mostly voted Kelly, even if some held their nose while doing so. We don’t know what the 3-way breakdown was.

Seeing as a lot of the local Lib members in Hughes reportedly couldn’t stand Kelly anyway, and felt that he didn’t really reflect the views of Liberal voters electorate, the Steele wet lib PV might be enough.

Would be so funny if none of the captains picks won of the 12 choices. I consider this seat to be the only one of them which the liberals could win.

It’s been discussed in earlier comments but this is the quintessential “battler” turned cashed-up bogan electorate. The strengthening since the Howard years for the Liberals demonstrates this and the 2019 election continued to have those places swing Liberal (see eg. Lindsay). Kelly generated some publicity for his stances and got a pretty big campaign against him last time which could explain why there was only a 0.5% swing on 2PP even with Scomo being “from the shire”. Contrast with Cook becoming the safest seat in NSW.

With Kelly removed as the Liberal candidate, and with a rather inoffensive local replacing him (she and Georgia Steele could almost have the same CV!) that should mean some return of Liberal voters turned off by Kelly. Of course, many may migrate to Steele but this is outer suburban Liberal heartland and precisely the kind of place Scomo constantly appeals to. Unlike Wentworth and others, he would be an asset here. Considering he hasn’t been to this place, I am inclined to believe his campaign does not see it as being under threat.

This is only 1 vote but make of it what you will.

My wife’s parents live in Hughes. Her dad is a rusted on, very conservative Liberal, who LOVED both Howard and Abbott but hated Turnbull. He doesn’t think climate change is real. Can’t stand “lefties”.

However, he can’t stand Morrison. Partly because he still thinks Morrisom backstabbed Abbott and partly because he thinks he’s just useless, smug and arrogant.

He’s also not an anti-vaxxer though and hates Kelly & UAP.

He’s actually voting Steele because he can’t vote Liberal or UAP but won’t vote for Labor either. He will obviously preference the Libs over Labor, but still that’s another primary vote for Steele from a rusted on conservative Lib, which will contribute to her race to second place.

1. Kelly is not a true incumbent. He’s rubbed a lot of moderate people up the wrong way walking away from the liberals and showing himself as loud with obnoxious opinions very little like the community here. I think it has activated the community here above what it would usually be, not as loudly expressed as some communities, but it’s there.

2. Jenny Ware is a captains pick. The second such time Morrison has done so, surely they’ve alienated some of their core supporters here as a result. Ware didn’t appear at the candidates forum, deletes questions she doesn’t want to answer from her facebook and says where she’s been rather than where she’s going. With a comment praising One Nation from 10 years ago surfacing recently no one actually knows who they’re voting for here.

3. Georgia Steele is a really good candidate. Articulate and prepared, she’s campaigning hard (since October), has lots of volunteers, is willing to meet anyone for the listen and chat. At the candidate forum she handled the Kelly supporter question with real respect. She’s been on Sky and 2GB making herself known to older voters and Kelly’s crew. Otherwise on every podcast and interview she can do in increase her name recognition for everyone else. Steele has made herself the choice for anyone who wants genuine representation for the area.

4. Labor’s candidate, Campbell, is earnest but inexperienced. Greens have never been contenders in the seat. Linda Seymour is credible and lovely, but cannot match the Steele campaign’s quality and momentum. Linda has earned higher preferences from every other candidate standing in the seat than Steele which may help, but it is hard to know whether her PV would get her high enough to credibly challenge the front runners. PHON is a ghost candidate.

So the seat poll is a seat poll and really needs to be taken with a pound of salt. And perhaps the betting odds are now a little too even given the seat history. But this seat has all of the ingredients happening at once to put it in play. Great independent, unavailable Liberal candidate, weakness in Labor and Green, weird incumbent situation to take some of the Lib vote.

I’m usually a Greens voter and I’ll vote for Steele because she’s the credible path in this seat for actual action in areas I’m really concerned about.

Also – not a cashed-up bogan.

Is Kelly preferencing Steele on his how to votes?

Actually I’m not sure. I saw a tweet referring to a Daily Telegraph article I don’t have access to, suggesting that Libs would be 4th on the UAP HTV, with Steele below that, but I haven’t been able to confirm.

Are minor candidates htvs listed some where? Does anyone know?

Latest Yougov says Independents in with no chance in Hughes with a lib primary of 42%, and a similar Lib vs Lab split to last election. Small sample (average 125 per seat) with demographic extrapolation.

Steele will steal this seat as an Independent. Very good news.

That is the problem with the survey. A 42% liberal vote does indeed put the liberal party in danger

Normally 42% would put them in danger but one would assume that Craig Kelly’s UAP preferences would put them in the box seat and with a lot of small players there are a lot of preferences to leak even if the HTV directs them away from the Libs.

Jenny Ware is turning out to be another Craig Kelly. She’s already censoring and banning constituents on her social media when they have presented facts to her. She will be another one who ignores Hughes.
Melanie Gibbons would have been a far better candidate, but she didn’t get the captains pick.