Higgins – Australia 2022

@Wombat That’s what it seems like. Victoria still has group voting tickets. I suspect AJP wants Labor’s surplus at the state election and this decision could be part of a quid pro quo.

Labor have signalled on social media that they’re targeting Higgins and they would love to win a seat and block Greens, but their campaign seems muted compared to 2019.

so the AJP gave their second preference in a bucketload of critical seats to a party which supports live exports, greyhound racing and barely supports veganism amongst other things. Sounds like a cop out. Be prepared to go the way of the OG Democrats if you continue to stand firmly against your only values and keeping preferencing Labor.

AJP claiming on social media that they’ve convinced Labor to support a ban on live sheep exports. Even though that was the same policy Labor took to the last election. And it’s just a phase-out commitment, with no timeframe.

@Ryan Spencer reality is how to vote cards (especially from minor parties) are only as effective as the number that are handed out, and the compliance of those following them. Both these will be relatively low. Higgins unique as one of the few electorates where ~80% flow of AJP prefs to Greens being reduced to ~60-70% could actually make a difference if AJP pull 2-3% and the gap between ALP and Greens is tight for 2nd.

Which means it would’ve come down to a question of “support push for a federal greens MP” vs “improve chances of retaining/gaining state upper house MP(s)” and they’ve gone with the latter. Right decision? Not sure, but I think within the parameters of electoral reasonableness (vs. say a deal swap with the Shooters haha)

Oddly they’re running open tickets in Cooper and Wills and putting Greens 2nd in Melbourne and Kooyong. Perhaps it wasn’t particularly well thought through.

@Wombat So directing preferences to Labor ahead of Greens in Brisbane and Ryan and Qld, SA and ACT senate seats is all about saving one Victorian MP who was elected off less than 3%?

@John that’s interesting, I just had a look and they also put Labor ahead of the Greens in Macnamara.

It seems like they have specifically put Labor ahead of Greens in the main seats the Greens are targetting – Higgins, Macnamara, Ryan and Brisbane – but not in the seats they can’t win anyway (this time) like Cooper, Wills and Kooyong, which is an interesting choice.

@Wombat

The thing that irks me about the AJP preferencing against the Greens in seats the Greens can win is its a “crab in bucket” mentality.

If all left wing micro parties made the same kind of pacts as AJP have the largest left wing minor party, whether it was the early 2000s Democrats, the Greens currently, perhaps AJP or someone else in future, would be weaker electorally ergo easier to ignore.

Labor would love nothing more than for none of the parties “to its left” to be able to leverage Labor governments anywhere.

I don’t think the AJP HTVs make sense but it’s not exactly wise to count on any of these one issue parties for anything in the first place. And frankly I doubt it’ll make much of a difference anyway. Not in Higgins, and probably not in any of the Brisbane electorates- I don’t think I’ve ever seen a single AJP volunteer handing out HTVs in my entire life.

Should make clear that it’s not a decision I agree with, just outlining why HQ might have gone down the garden path. Ultimately people who support the AJP election platform/pitch should still vote 1, and then preference however they want, as is their prerogative.

It is a pity in Vic they didn’t support a move to a NSW/SA/WA (next election) single-state electorate upper house without GVT, where we likely would get 1-2 members up on merit. Instead some questionable preference deals and another 8 rolls of the GVT dice, but I guess that’s politics.

Wombat at the end of the day, the AJP have sold out their values by preferencing a party who ALLOWS the murder of ducks below a party who actively campaigns against it. AND the ALP would not ban it especially since they have a preference swap with the Shooters.

I personally believe some AJP voters will vote for the GRN above Labor and won’t make a big difference here, it’s just that it made people in my area HATE the AJP when they were considering a senate vote for them.

Labor have now confirmed they will NOT do the sheep live export ban.

AJP handshake deal for preferences in tatters.

Left wing parties shouldn’t trust a promise from Labor, you gotta win seats and force them.

AJP doing a deal with Labor was a huge mistake and has really damaged their credibility.

Malcolm Mackerras is predicting Greens candidate Sonya Semmens will take this seat from the Liberals. He notes how well respected she is, having put much effort into building her campaign at the community level. If he is right it will be a significant Lower House victory for the Greens equal to when Adam Bandt first got elected.

Interesting! Seems like Labor are confident of winning the seat. They seem to have poured lots of money into the seat recently and based on news report, have Katie’s primary vote down to 42%. Their candidate also performed well at the climate debate. I’d personally prefer a Greens win but would still be happy for Katie to lose the seat to Labor.

That’s interesting Bruce. I also just read on the Poll Bludger’s latest blog that Liberal sources believe Katie Allen’s primary vote has dropped to 42% which would translate to a clear loss if it’s accurate.

I’m surprised there’s not more discussion of this seat in the press. Allen’s primary vote was lower than Wilson’s and Frydenberg’s 2019z it’s a bit bizarre that there isn’t a Teal candidate here, the argument against the others is just as valid for Allen (that she votes that same as Joyce.)

Has anyone seen the UAP HTV card(s) for Higgins? If so, what do they recommend?

I really don’t know how or who believes Labor has spent alot on this seat? No ads, No phone booth posters and no billboards. Clear contrast to Greens and Liberals

Penning this in as a Labor gain.

Jack
I work in Higgins and the only evidence I have seen of a labor campaign is workers at South Yarra station at lunchtime. No posters, no corflutes. Plenty of ads from both Libs and Greens.

All I’ve seen of Labor in Higgins are a couple of Josh Burns for Macnamara posters in Windsor. Nothing for the actual Higgins candidate.

Sonya Semmens stuff is everywhere.

Those YouGov MRP polls had Higgins as LIB 40, ALP 33 and GRN 21 but i don’t trust them at all.

In both the Higgins and Macnamara polls I think the Greens vote is too low and it’s probably because of the way it allocates support based on demographics.

Seats with similar demographics to Higgins have a high independent vote, much of which is at the expense of the Greens vote, so that would have just reduced the Greens’ share of that demographic across the board, including in Higgins and Macnamara that have no independent to eat into the Greens vote.

I still tip a Greens gain here.

Yeah I really don’t know what to make of those news polls, the Labor vote seems too high and a win of 80 seats seems like a stretch. Overall I’m really confused who to think or predict will win this seat because polls and journalists are all claiming a Labor win but Michelle isn’t half as charismatic, famous or funded as Fiona was in 2019, supposedly a bad election for the Libs

Also those YouGov polls have Dave Sharma winning Wentworth by 6 points, Labor winning North Sydney by 4 and the only Independent gains as Goldstein and Kooyong.

I suspect the Liberals may have the strongest chance at retaining Higgins out of all their wealthy inner-city seats under siege. There’s no superficially moderate teal candidate, instead the only choice is Labor or Greens which will be a bridge too far for many soft Liberal voters. Also it helps that Katie Allen is a woman with a consistent Liberal Left voting record who generally presents well in public.

The difference between Higgins and the seats with teal candidates though is that it’s a more diverse seat with large areas that are generally happier to vote Labor or Greens, probably even moreso than they would a teal in some parts.

Whereas Goldstein & Kooyong have a pretty consistent demographic and voting tendency throughtout, with only small variations like Hawthorn and Bentleigh being more marginal, only the centre of Higgins (Toorak, Malvern, Glen Iris) has the same Liberal pedigree as those seats .

Suburbs like Prahran and Windsor in the west, and Carnegie and Glenhuntly in the southeast, are genuinely left leaning with double digit 2CP margins at most booths, so only a very small swing to Labor OR the Greens is required for it to fall.

Meanwhile, South Yarra seems to get 2-3% more left wing with every election and I think that’s a long term trend due to demographic changes. It’s gone from safe Liberal turf to marginal, to 50/50 territory, to about 55-45 Greens. That trend will just continue, it’s more comparable to a Southbank demographic now.

Basically the Liberal “heartland” wedged between the progressive edges is starting to get overpowered, that’s quite a different situation to Goldstein and Kooyong where most of the seat just want a more moderate Liberal Party.

New polls show Greens getting only 19% of the vote with a sample size of 800 ish.

Any thoughts

That poll I saw, that had greens at 19.9%, lab at 29.8% and lib at 36.9%, included undecided leanings for each party total, still had 13.4% undecided, and a 3.38% margin of error, so still lots of wiggle room? I think Katie might be in trouble but hard to say greens v labor. Also the poll gave the alp v lib 2cp (54-46) but not the
grn v lib 2cp, which I’d really like to know!

Hi Happ what poll are you referring to? that seems low to me.

I’m curious about which polls they were too. I find it difficult to believe the Greens vote will be lower than in 2019, with Windsor added back into the seat.

In any case I’m confident Katie Allen is in trouble, I’d almost be comfortable to just say she’s likely gone.

I also think a GRN 2CP vs LIB would be higher than an ALP 2CP vs LIB because in 2016 it was more than 2.5% better; so if the Greens do get into second place that’s probably even worse news for Katie Allen.

The poll gives the Green v Liberal 2CP (respondent-allocated preferences). It’s 55-45, compared to the (respondent-allocated) ALP-LIB of 54-46. By historical preferences (more likely to be accurate) the poll results in 51-49 ALP-LIB.

Full results and methodology can be found here and by clicking the links on the bottom. https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/higgins-polling-research-shows-landslide-support-for-truth-in-political-advertising-laws/.

https://www.miragenews.com/higgins-polling-research-shows-landslide-781275/

Greens at 19.9%, I agree it seems low for the type of campaign Sonya has run that’s why I’m confused especially contrasting it to Michelle’s lower campaign

The poll was conducted by uComms with a sample size of 836 people via telephone on May 2, with a margin of error of 3.38%. The poll is Australian Polling Council compliant, with all questions and methodology publicly available.

Maybe they didn’t ring the western areas of the electorate?

This isn’t the traditional Liberal safe seat which is now marginal that people make it out to be – a seat on these boundaries would have been quite marginal due to redistributions.

As a Melbourne local, the largely if not all Labor/Greens-aligned posters above forget that enrolments have declined in Higgins since the 2019 election.

Who has left is interesting: I reckon it’s some of the transients (a majority young females under 35) who’ve decamped to Sydney or elsewhere due to the Daniel Andrews lockdowns and consequent loss of incomes.

It’s possible that the Victorian ALP 2PP vote in 2019 was close to, or at, the high water mark.

There is a reasonable chance that inter-state movement to get away from lockdowns was a disproportionately right leaning demographic, as the right was more against the the Victorian lockdowns than the left. Right leaning professionals no longer tethered to Melbourne offices are a likely significant component of the move.

Since 2019 Victoria has gained an extra seat so all of the enrolments would have gone down when comparing 2022 to 2019. Since September 2021 – with 39 seats – the enrolment in Higgins has increased by about 500 voters.

A strong Labor election often weakens the Greens vote. Some.left voters being keen to elect a Left government .

The voting patterns in this electorate show that the true division of the old City of Prahran was east-west, as opposed to north-south. It has always been Prahran, Windsor, and South Yarra versus Protestant Toorak, and Armadale. South Yarra has a large public housing estate (Horace Petty) with three high rise towers. It used to have industry. The demographics of South Yarra are quite different to Toorak, and Armadale. The number one non Australian born ethnicity in Toorak, and Armadale is English. South Yarra has a much more diverse population. Toorak, and Armadale have some of the highest percentages of Anglicans in Melbourne. Toorak is not as WASP as Brighton though.

@Trent: You are spot on about the difference between Higgins (on the one hand), and Kooyong, and Goldstein (on the other). South Yarra is very similar to Southbank in demographics. They have Indian, Chinese, and Malay residents. They have a lot of renters living in apartments. Both have large LGBTIQ+ populations. There is even industry in South Yarra. I have argued for years that South Yarra is a Labor area.

Prahran/ Windsor are Labor areas. There are many students who live in this area. It has a large LGBTIQ+ community. There are many low income people in the area too. Like South Yarra, Prahran/ Windsor have high rise public housing estates. There has always been a Greek community in this area. There is some industry in this area.

Carnegie is also a strong Labor area. It always has been. It has always had a lot of renters. It is a working class area that is ethnically diverse. It has large Jewish, Greek, Chinese, and Indian communities. A lot of Monash University students live in Carnegie. There is a LGBTIQ+ community in the suburb.

Even the far eastern part of Malvern East (formerly Chadstone) is more Labor oriented. This area is very different to the snooty part of Malvern East. Many residents opposed the name change. They felt no connection to Malvern East.

The Liberal heartland in this division is centered around Toorak, Armadale, Malvern, Malvern East, and Glen Iris. There used to be a video library called ABC. It stood for Armadale, Brighton, Camberwell. It was very symbolic as it was like an homage to the Protestant, Liberal voting, Melbourne football club barracking suburbs of Armadale, Brighton, and Camberwell.

You are correct that only Hawthorn, and Bentleigh stand out in the other electorates. Hawthorn needs to be grouped with Richmond. Yarra Electorate needs to brought back. It would cover Richmond, Hawthorn, Abbotsford, and Collingwood

I agree with everyone’s comments about the Higgins boundaries been a mess, in fact i think that the whole southeast boundaries are wrong. Caulfield should definitely be in Higgins, also wondering if people think South Yarra and Prahran should be in Macnamara. I’m not entirely familiar with the area but would it not be better to have Murrumbeena and Carnegie (both of which have a large population between 18-30 and a large amount currently attending university) in Hotham with Oakliegh and Hughesdale. Should Hotham really stretch as far east as it does, would Noble Park and Springvale not be better off in Bruce. Also why doesn’t Bruce extend southward to Dandenong South to connect all of Dandenong in one area.

As for how this seat will play out i think one thing people seem to forget and need to remember is that due to demographic changes this seat is very young and probably not as wealthy as it used to be due to all the young people in apartments in the western part of the seat. The wealthy in Toorak and Malvern still vote Liberal (although they probably could and should do better her) and South Yarras still 50/50 despite densification. There might be anti-Morrison sentiment in the seat but if you want a moderate Liberal party just keep Katie Allen and vote differently in the senate. People say you may as well still target the moderates in the Liberal party as they’re just as bad and have no control within the party but if you vote them all out there won’t be any left and the Liberals could lurch further right.

Can’t wait for the Greens to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here.

I suspect that despite Labor winning here I feel the Greens will still have this as a target

Ananda-Rajah will have a new personal vote but the seat will still be a target, true.

As others have observed, the electorate is really a mix of 3 different parts (Greens, Liberal and Labor territory). Jason Ball would have been a tough act to follow so a drop in primary is not that unexpected. Still, without knowing much about the on-the-ground action, and just based on the CVs of the candidates, I can’t help but feel as if the Greens candidate had too narrow of an appeal towards the Greens section. If they do want to take the seat on the current boundaries they might be better served with a doctor (like Labor and Liberal) or some other well-respected profession that can blunt the “activist” image.

Also is it possible a Teal will challenge Labor next time in seats like this and Macnamara and argue for more rapid action on emissions.

@Adda – Higgins is a seat that the Teals didn’t run in at the last election. Suspect the reason that they didn’t run is that Katie Allen fits the model of a teal candidate perfectly. Upper middle class well educated (medical doctor) socially liberal female aged in her 50s……

I would suspect that the teals will run a candidate in Higgins at the next election and it will become a 4 way contest. The question then becomes do the labor and green voters stay with their own party or back the teal? I suspect that many voters in toorak would have preferred teal over red but as there wasn’t an option chose red.

A second question is how much “leakage” is there from the liberals to a teal?

The centre of Higgins fits the teal profile very well but I don’t think the rest of the seat is that friendly for them. The west and south-east are much more standard left-wing territory. In the seats that went down to teals, it was clear that there wouldn’t be a realistic chance for either Labor/Greens to win and so the parties didn’t campaign and their supporters flocked towards the alternative best placed to knock the Liberal out. There will be no such occurrence in a hypothetical match up in Higgins, with each party campaigning hard and with their own base of dedicated supporters.

That’s not to say that a strong teal candidate can’t win, but they won’t easily convince left-wing voters to get behind them the way they could in safe Liberal seats. The seat of Boothby is illustrative – a marginal that Labor had its eyes set on and the teal couldn’t get anywhere on first preferences.

North Sydney might be the exception one can point to the above point about seats without a realistic chance, but that was still a seat with a margin of over 9%. There’s also considerably less of a Labor/Greens base than in Higgins.

Most importantly, Higgins in 2025 will have a Labor incumbent. That’ll be a clear boost to her own profile and combined with the Greens having their own ambitions of taking this seat, and the Liberals probably yet to give up, there seems to be little space available for a teal. They need to take chunks of supporters from all 3 parties and it’s not apparent that those party bases will shift so easily.

Similarly, whatever outcome occurs in Macnamara, I can’t see a teal candidate doing well there. Likely worse than one would do in Higgins even. If the Greens don’t win Macnamara this time, they’ll be well poised to do so next time. And they’ll put in a lot of resources towards it so I doubt there will be any space for a teal.

Greens dropped the Ball here. My guess is Jason Ball as a star candidate inflated the Green vote at the last 2 elections (especially in 2016 when Labor ran dead). Sonya Semmens is a strong candidate in her own right but Greens would have lost some vote from Ball.

Labor surged their campaign late in the picture and I don’t think Vic Greens had the grassroots organisation to withstand a late push.

I think Greens will target this seat but it might need to have another stint being Liberal held before they take it.