Higgins – Australia 2022

Given Hughesdale moved into Hotham in the most recent redistribution, I’m wondering if in future redistributions, Carnegie + Murumbeena gets shaved off from Higgins and also joins Hotham (or gets split between Goldstein and Hotham), given that’s the only section left in Higgins that is below the Princes Highway.

Where would Higgins expand to compensate were Carnegie and Murrumbeena to be transferred out?

I’m hoping in future redistributions that they finally do the sensible swap with Macnamara of Prahran, Windsor and South Yarra for the Caulfield area. In that scenario, Murrumbeena and Carnegie fit well with Caulfield (they really should already be united).

That proposal being reversed was quite a shock which received backlash this year, so I don’t know if the campaign to keep Caulfield in Macnamara would survive another inevitable proposal for the long overdue swap of territory. Especially as the Jewish community west of Hotham St continues to shrink further and further below that which is already in the Higgins.

What would be interesting to see, is if the Greens manage to win Macnamara off Josh Burns prior to another redistribution (more difficult now especially without Windsor, but possible), will there even be such an objection to moving the Caulfield area into Higgins? Would that community be fighting as hard to stay in a Greens held seat?

It’s much more likely Higgins will “shave off” Glen Iris and Ashburton, given the sluggish growth in Kooyong.

With all the commentary around the Jewish community last time, I suggested the possibility of uniting all of the Caulfield/Elsternwick area (including the bits currently in Goldstein) in Higgins. This would allow Goldstein to unite all of Bentleigh/Ormond, and put Hughesdale and Carnegie in with Oakleigh in the seat of Hotham.

It was a big change from the current boundaries, but it at least offered an alternative way for Higgins to expand instead of constantly pushing east.

That’s a really sensible proposal I think Mark. It’s a shame it wasn’t adopted!

Labor still wants to be competitive in Higgins regardless of what happens in Macnamara, and keeping Greens voting suburbs where they are is their best hope for it. If Labor ends up winning Higgins then they’re likely to fight even harder for it.

This could easily fall both Greens & Labor have a real shot in winning here.

The Libs will be in trouble here if there primary vote goes below 45% and the combined ALP +Greens vote get close to or over 50%. Prahran results in 2014 show this well where the Libs were on 44.8% and just lost. Interested to hear from the pundits on this one – if in a situation like this where the ALP and Greens are closely matched – do the Libs do better if the ALP or Greens come third? Which of the ALP or Greens are generally better at following the HTV card?

Generally the Greens voters follow HTV cards the least, but whether preferences flow stronger from Greens to Labor or vice versa seems to differ by area.

In the 2018 state election, preferences flowed about 0.1% better from Greens to Labor than Labor to Greens in Prahran (Greens 2CP was 57.45% and Labor’s 2CP was 57.55%) so not much difference.

That could differ in the wealthier parts of Higgins though (Malvern, Toorak, Armadale etc) that are more blue/green areas.

Labor voters tend to vote more Green than vice versa mainly because some Greens voters are wealthier (especially in Higgins) and are fundamentally opposed to the Labor party generally. Tree tories if you will.

Is there a more idiotic choice of candidate than Labor’s one here?

Only one I can see topping it is Victoria Fielding winning preselection for the Senate.

This could have been competitive for Labor but their candidate seems to be an absolute train wreck. The sooner Labor disendorse her, the better their chances.

This seat should be one the Liberals campaign hard for as it has a lot of historical significance, losing this would be as embarrassing as losing Warringah in 2019.

Scott Morrison has visited this seat which suggests at this stage that the LNP are worried about the chances here as well as Chisholm.

Higgins has been Liberal held for a long time but it wouldn’t really be surprising if it left the fold at the next election.

The Labor candidate here has had a few issues so it will be interesting to see if the Greens return to second place. This time the LNP have incumbency on their side which should help them hold here, however I think it will be very close.

Katie Allen is probably seen as a bit of a shining light in an otherwise damaged Liberal Party among the more moderate/progressive Liberals of this part of Melbourne, which means the negative Liberal swing here could be a little watered down compared to seats like Kooyong and Goldstein (despite having some considerably more left wing areas than anything in those seats).

I think Windsor being back in the seat and Hughesdale removed will help the Greens catch up to or overtake Labor too, probably more than the notional results indicate. Windsor is the focal point of the Greens’ “heartland” south of the Yarra.

Sportsbet odds have this as a Liberal hold, with them paying $1.45 for victory, with the Greens at $3.75 and Labor out at $7.50. The markets clearly concur with the comments above, that Labor’s choice of candidate has cost them any hope of victory here. It will be interesting to see if the general anti-federal government mood in Melbourne affects Higgins too, because that could bring the seat in striking distance for the Greens. But I think Allen will manage to hang on at this stage.

What’s wrong with the ALP candidate here? She seems fine

Tanya was here with the Labor candidate here which would suggest Labor think they still have a shot here of picking Higgins up.

As if it wasn’t awkward enough for Labor volunteers trying to sell Ananda-Rajah on the doorsteps, just imagine if they have to justify Labor waving the white flag on the RDA while Katie Allen actually fights it. Remember Higgins voted something like 77% for same sex marriage. I almost feel sorry for them.

I’m curious to see what Katie Allen’s position will be on the RDA. I haven’t seen her mentioned today as an MP who may cross the floor.

If she doesn’t, the RDA issue could be what gives the Greens the boost they need in seats like this. Their climate vote seems to have maxed/plateaued at the last few elections, but a top topic issue like the RDA in a socially progressive seat with a significant LGBTQ population could be the issue that moves more votes, if Katie Allen doesn’t cross the floor.

Given the government`s terrible polling and the margin in Higgins, it may fall however Allen votes.

Given that Higgins is a 3-way marginal, the ALP`s position likely also matters and could potentially determine who comes third.

Katie Allen was going to oppose but folded when the protections for gay students (but not transgender) were included. AFAIK Bridget Archer is the only Liberal holdout left.

Agreed that the Greens will make this an issue, in Higgins and every other socially progressive inner-city seat they have a chance in, especially if Labor doesn’t manage to secure any meaningful amendments (Labor having already showed its cards by voting in caucus to wave the bill through the Senate regardless).

If Allen loses could she run for Prahran at the state election this year? Could be possible to parachute her into it or another Victorian seat considering there would be a Labor government if she losses re-election. The Liberals won’t win the state election but they will come close if Albo is PM. Just a thought.

Can’t see Vic Libs parachuting Katie Allen anywhere

Why would anyone want to hang onto Katie Allen ? Yet another stand for nothing ,& do nothing MP

Daniel, i very much doubt the Libs can pick up Prahran unless its a landslide. The recent redistribution removed what remained of Toorak the rest of the seat is becoming more progressive.

Katie Allen’s ability to hold on here might be greater considering she just crossed the floor.

Katie has already (unsuccessfully) run in Prahran. Got a 7.7% swing against her in the 2018 election (10% drop in primaries). But more reflective of the malaise that was 2018 election for the liberal party. If she had won in Prahran she would have not run for Higgins so I suppose every cloud has a silver lining.

Katie will not be running in Prahran in November.

Ryan Spencer, an interesting point you make about those who do cross the floor when voting on so called ‘contentious’ legislation.

I would add that in the US, there were several ‘moderate’ Republicans who also crossed the floor on several votes, including the Obamacare repeal bill. Despite their vote records, many of these moderate Republicans lost in the landslide 2018 midterm as it was the political geography of their seats (affluent, suburban districts) that mattered more than their vote records. This could be an important point, as it means MPs like Katie Allen and Trent Zimmerman who hold these affluent, inner suburban districts could still be in trouble and at risk of losing their seats despite their historic vote against the RD bill.

Reports are now that the bill will be shelved in the Senate, as the hard right don’t want to be railroaded into disallowing any transgender discrimination whatsoever by voting for the few amendments passed in the House.

This is probably the first game of legislative chicken I can remember Labor winning during Albo’s entire leadership. Katie Allen did well for herself personally by voting for Labor’s amendments, as did Trent Zimmerman and Dave Sharma, so a lot of the sting against them has been neutralised. The big losers now are the other inner-city Liberals in progressive seats who tried to prevent them. Trevor Evans, Julian Simmonds, Josh Frydenberg Tim Wilson and (arguably) Jason Falinski are now even more vulnerable than they were.

Yoh An
Very good insights as always.
However Susan Collins (the prime example) didn’t have the three cornered contest that Katie Allan has, nor would I say the moderate side of the liberals are completely dead and in the ditches as opposed to the moderate liberals. Infact the success of the greens here and the voices elsewhere might come to be the end as all the rising moderate voices in the party risk getting voted out at this election by them. One could argue that the rightward lurch of the party since the election of john howard also means that the middle space of the moderate liberals is getting hard to fill .

What happens in US elections has no relevance here. There is a long history of Senators with their own established brands being elected and re-elected in states otherwise unfriendly to their party. This trend has declined sharply recently, but still remains to some extent. Joe Manchin being the standout contemporary example.

Australian politicians simply don’t have that level of personal loyalty. They may have a personal vote, but it tends to be small and only matters at the margins. They are largely to their parties’ fortunes.

Sextus Pompey, I was referring to Republican House members contesting the 2018 midterm, some of whom include Barbara Comstock (Virginia 10th District) who held a district that covers an area very similar to Canberra’s suburbs.

I agree with David Walsh’s point, and it is important to note that in Australia, the Senate is elected through a form of proportional representation (which makes it even harder to build a ‘personal’ brand).

@Daniel and Nimalan regarding Prahran:

Totally agree with Nimalan. Prahran is not a winnable seat for the Liberals with Toorak now removed. Even with Toorak they only won it once in 20 years as it is increasingly progressive.

4 of the 5 suburbs in the seat are overwhelmingly left leaning – St Kilda, St Kilda East & Windsor very much so, and to a lesser (but still convincing) extent Prahran itself.

Only South Yarra is Liberal-friendly turf at all, and it does account for nearly half the seat’s population, but even that is only 50/50 now and increasingly progressive with highrise development changing the demographics since the Liberals won 12 years ago.

The removed Toorak area usually voted over 70% Liberal (not in 2018 though, so the redistribution impact would be even more than the numbers indicate) which helped neutralise the left dominance south of Commercial Road, but that’s gone now so I think Prahran is going to be a write off them for the foreseeable future. They have more chance in Albert Park despite the bigger margin.

Also Katie Allen lives in the seat of Malvern, maybe she will replace O’Brien one day if he calls it quits?

@ Ryan & FL:

I agree that Katie Allen did herself a favour by crossing the floor. Effectively she voted exactly the same as Labor – for the SDA amendments and also for the RDA itself – so that will neutralise any attacks from them, although the Greens can still claim total opposition to the RDA as a contrast.

That said, for the average voter who doesn’t pay attention to who their local MP is, Katie Allen still represents the Liberal brand. She still represents a Morrison/Joyce government which includes the likes of Dutton and represents the religious right, so if more socially progressive voters don’t want that, then Katie crossing the floor probably won’t change much.

That said, she would have saved some votes for sure and like I said, also neutralised the issue being used against her by Labor & the Greens. That’s something Frydenburg and Tim Smith don’t have (but they do have more comfortable margins and slightly less progressive, LGBTQ focused seats).

Hi guys! My name is Fiona and I do independent electorate analysis! Here’s my analysis of Higgins!

At this point I’d rate this seat as a toss-up between Liberals and the Greens. The Labor candidate has too much baggage and it’s hard seeing them get into the two party preferred.

I see this seat falling into the hands of the Greens for many reasons, firstly, the seat is becoming ever progressive, especially with the re-adding of Windsor, the Greens candidate is also lively and running a vigorous campaign and has picked up the work of the 2019 candidate, she represents Higgin’s progressive candidate and stands a real chance. Secondly, Scott Morrison’s unpopularity, especially in Victoria can play into the hands of the Greens, even though Katie Allen is a strong local member, she still represents the Liberal Party, this means that her party identification may be enough to give the Greens their second MP.

Now, equally as likely, I see this seat staying in the hands of the Liberal Party, firstly, Katie Allen is a strong local member, she’s crossed the floor numerous times and seems to genuinely care about climate change, a key issue in this electorate, her campaign slogan is “Taking Care of Higgins” and she does a good job portraying herself as doing so, however that being said, she’s still a Liberal and this may be baggage to her.

Overall a total toss up between the Greens and Liberals

I agree with all that. The margin is so small – Antony Green now has the redistributed margin at only 2.7% – that it could go either way.

I think with Hughesdale (strong Labor) out and Windsor (overwhelmingly Greens) in, plus all the factors you mention here along with what you talked about in the Macnamara thread regarding the difference between the 2019 & 2022 campaigns, the Greens should definitely be favourites to surpass Labor and get back in the 2CP count again; and with such a small margin, at that point anything can happen.

Katie Allen is about as good a Liberal as you can get for this seat, but as you say, she’s still a Liberal and as such is associated with the brand, the climate inaction, Morrison, Dutton and Joyce.

I lived in Macnamara in 2016 (and the 10 years before that), Higgins in 2019 and Macnamara again this year. So I’m very familiar with both, but admittedly from very much the most progressive parts of both seats (St Kilda and the Chapel St precinct). So while my observations and experiences are of a very progressive, anti-Liberal and pro-Greens area, I know things may feel very different in the “heartland” of this seat across Toorak, Malvern, Glen Iris etc.

Fun fact: from Antony Greens 1996 Election Guide. In 1993, the 2pp had Labor on 69% in Prahran but their 2pp in 2019 was 63%. I think the issue is that the Lib vote in places like Toorak has dropped much more – but still very high.

Hi Trent,

It’s Fiona here,

If you don’t mind me asking who do you plan to vote for in Macnamara, the contest will be close

Does anyone still believe Katie Allen stands a chance? I really can’t see how her handful of floor crosses will save her at this point.

Hey Furtive!

The betting market suggest that people believe it’s more likely a Liberal hold than a Labor/Greens pick up!

I know the betting market isn’t all accurate but if people are putting money on it, they’re risking a lot.

Currently the numbers stand as
Liberals – $1.07
Greens – $5
Labor – $5:20

I can see this seat going both ways, Katie Allen is a strong local and still represents a Liberal Heartland seat, at this point it’s a toss up

Hello rich people Lawngnome’s joining you

Redistributed: I don’t think Prahran and Windsor are where the Liberal vote has really changed much over time, it’s always been a progressive pocket as far as I remember and if anything was a lot more alternative back then.

I think South Yarra, which has the biggest population of any suburb in the seat, is where most of the long term change has happened. This applies to the state seat of Prahran too. It used to be much more Liberal and counter the left-wing vote south of Commercial Road, but is now a lot more 50/50 (in fact the Green or Labor 2CP averaged around 55% at South Yarra booths in the last couple of elections).

The Liberal vote took a nosedive in Toorak & Malvern in 2018 (Prahran/Malvern) and 2019 (Higgins) but I think that’s more of a moment in time – which could very well be repeated this year – than a long term trend like in South Yarra where I can’t see the Liberals getting much of 50% again. South Yarra is the reason I think the state seat of Prahran may now be out of reach for the Liberals for the foreseeable future. If their best suburb now is only 50/50 at best, and everything south of Commercial Road is solid Greens/Labor, I don’t see a way they can win it.

Fiona: I’ll be voting for Steph in Macnamara. I did so in 2016 too and was actually disappointed I didn’t get to vote in Macnamara last time (I briefly moved to Prahran, funnily enough I was only about 10 metres from the border of Windsor too which had moved into Macnamara on 2019 boundaries).

I believe Toorak and Malvern massive swings in 2019 are somewhat distorted though. Many Liberal voters in 2019 shifted to vote early with some doing by mail.

On what basis do people here seem to be writing off Labor? I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that the candidate is a particular problem. This is also more likely in my eyes to be an election where, nationwide, the Labor vote goes up and the Greens stays status quo if not going down. Higgins would have to buck the trend, which is possible by all means but I wouldn’t consider it more likely than not.

Adda – you’re thinking in terms of an approximately uniform swing, but that ignores that different parties will focus on different seats.

Higgins is a big target for the Greens, as would any seat where they’ve been getting over 20% at recent elections would be. With it being adjacent to Melbourne, and a big target, the Greens will likely bring out some big guns for the seat. Most of the Greens’ other targets in the Melbourne area are vs Labor, which means they’re fighting an uphill battle… but in Higgins, they merely need to capture some disaffected Enviro-Liberal voters, in an anti-Liberal election. Labor’s letting anti-Liberal sentiment sweep them to power, primarily, which in a seat like Higgins actually benefits the Greens more.

Honestly I wouldn’t write Labor off either. They got a big swing and back in the 2CP in 2019.

But I think the conditions this time are more favourable to the Greens.

I also don’t think the Labor candidate here is particularly problematic, but they had an excellent high profile candidate in 2019 who I think contributed to their swing. The ALP brand was also riding very high in Victoria after the Andrews landslide only 6 months earlier, I don’t think that’s so much the case this time.

Also this time, there is a real groundswell of support among the Enviro-Liberals that Glen mentions, with the Voice Of campaigns. Higgins is prime turf for that but doesn’t have one, so the Greens very much become the closest alternative.

As an observation too, I haven’t seen a single poster or ad anywhere in Higgins for the Labor candidate. It’s entirely Katie Allen and Sonya Semmens everywhere.

Compare that to Macnamara where there are Josh Burns posters in every phone booth, and it’s clear which of the two seats Labor are throwing their resources at. In fact, the only Labor posters I’ve seen in Higgins have actually been Josh Burns ones crossing the boundary!

I honestly expect Higgins to be very similar to Prahran 2014. A genuine 3 way race, very close between Labor and Greens for the 3PP then very close between the winner of them and the Liberals for the 2CP.

The Greens probably have more chance of unseating Katie Allen if they make it to the final two as well; because in 2016 the LIB v GRN margin was only about 8% but the LIB v ALP margin was 10%.

That means, based on Antony Green’s revised redistribution margin of 2.7% vs ALP for this seat; the LIB v GRN margin may already be under 1%, if they’re able to leapfrog Labor.

Glen, everything you mention was true last election and yet there still was (IIRC) a 1.3% lead for Labor at 3PP to exclude the Greens. My point was that with a general expectation of a swing to Labor in this election without much for the Greens, there would have to be some particular change in Higgins between 2019 and 2022 to buck that trend. I do note that Labor got a pretty big swing in 2019 thanks to what seems to have been a more intense campaign and selection of a high profile candidate, but Jason Ball himself doesn’t seem to be a lightweight. I can’t imagine Labor is going to be any less intense this time when the discontent towards the federal Liberals has only grown in the seat. I also expect “anti-Liberal” sentiment would equally benefit both Labor and the Greens, if not slightly more for Labor thanks to them being the natural alternative government. (I remember reading that the 2CP for Lib v Grn here was higher than for Lib v Lab, but I don’t have the numbers on me)