ALP 10.2%
Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.
Geography
Hawke is a new electorate in western Melbourne, covering Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan. The seat covers parts of the Hume, Melton and Moorabool council areas.
The seat was constructed out of parts of McEwen (Sunbury), Gorton (Melton) and Ballarat (Bacchus Marsh and Ballan).
History
Hawke is a new electorate, drawn in areas that have a history of voting strongly for Labor.
The Labor two-party-preferred vote in the area reached as high as 67.2% in 2010, and as low as 53.2% in 2004.
Assessment
Hawke is a safe Labor seat.
| Party | % |
| Labor | 44.1 |
| Liberal | 29.4 |
| Independent | 7.8 |
| Greens | 7.4 |
| United Australia Party | 6.3 |
| Animal Justice | 2.0 |
| One Nation | 1.7 |
| Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 1.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 60.2 |
| Liberal | 39.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Sunbury in the east, Melton in the centre and the west, including Bacchus Marsh.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.7% in the west to 66.7% in Melton.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Sunbury | 8.7 | 60.3 | 12,520 | 14.6 |
| Melton | 8.1 | 66.7 | 12,478 | 14.5 |
| West | 8.0 | 59.7 | 9,000 | 10.5 |
| Pre-poll | 6.3 | 58.1 | 39,237 | 45.6 |
| Other votes | 8.1 | 60.4 | 12,741 | 14.8 |
Election results in Hawke at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
This seat will be interesting to watch in future elections.
It would be disrespectful to Bob Hawke if this ever fell Liberal. That is why I was always sceptical with these boundaries. 10% might look safe on paper but a 1996/2013 result could make it close. I have always believed seats named after prime ministers should always be placed in safe areas for the party the PM belonged to.
So yes I am also suggesting Fraser,Holt,Bruce,Gorton and McEwen should also all be placed in Liberal/National areas. I don’t think the Liberals would like it if the future division of Howard which likely will be placed on the Sydney North Shore was marginal.
Unless of course if the ”Interesting” you mean is to do with a future redistribution changing the boundaries.
Bob Hawke is the Labor version of Robert Menzies and has the division of Menzies ever voted Labor? No.
On this seat – Yes, one to watch should the Liberals increase their statewide vote in Victoria like it’s 1996.
Here in Perth, the seat of Curtin is very much a safe Liberal one, plus it incorporated bits of Fremantle (his old seat) which were in it when John Curtin (Labor) held Fremantle.
Demographics and population density of areas also change over time (Bruce used to be a safeish Liberal seat, but that was back when the Liberals did better in Victoria, plus it didn’t go south of Wheelers Hill)
Bob, to be honest I’d think the opposite.
With continued growth in the western suburbs, I think it’s more likely Hawke will gradually lose its rural areas and consolidate as an urban seat. Therefore becoming much safer for Labor.
Kind of how Burke/Gorton has ended up being a super-safe Labor seat over time.
The old 1984-90 Burke was in same territory as this and was marginal Labor (would have been 1990 loss if it had not been pushed back into Melbourne) but its sign of Victoria’s leftward drift & spread of Melbourne that this in-between region is now safe Labor.
This is a fairly certain Labor win with a comfortable margin.
this seat with the way dan andrews has treated the area of melton in the state arena and with not a lot of progress as far as infrastructure is concerned i.e. western freeway,OMRR, funding to get a 24hr hospital plus other issues not incl even during 2010-2013 time when labor was in power not a lot had happened in the area because was classed as a safe labor seat very little funding was spent in the area so the seat will turn as there is no incumbent and there is also 1 name to watch out for still who has gone social media dark is jarrod bingham as he cause a shit storm for melton city council and brendan o’connor because of his job and the extra people he meet plus with brendan o’connor NOT RUNNING in the seat of GORTON (retirement) the seat of gorton will be a must watch as well
what the hell @raymond johnson
O’Connor is still running.
Ryan no he isn’t running. He isn’t declared. Proof that he is running? Although I disagree with the notion that Gorton is in play. Morrison is dead man walking in Victoria. they will be lucky to retain Higgins and Latrobe at this stage.
My thought process given head office saved all the incumbents was that if he hadn’t announced his retirement, he probably wouldn’t be.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/hawke2022/comment-page-1#comment-757938
The 1990 redistribution was not friendly to the Liberals in Victoria. 2 of the seats they would probably have gained on 1990 boundaries (Burke and Maribyrnong) were drawn into the Western suburbs and shored up for the ALP and 2 more likely gains (Henty and Streeton) were abolished and only 1 notional Liberal gain was created (Corinalla).
It seems the One Nation HTV for this seat shows an invalid ballot, with two 10s but no 8.
Expat
It is unreasonable if you to expect One nation to be able to count. Hopefully the AEC will be initiating action to ensure that One Nation cease handing out the HTV advocating an informal vote even if they treat the HTV as just an error. The alternative is to arrest anyone handing out the HTV.
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Indeed. Would technically be getting into Albert Langer territory.
Mostly I just found it amusing. Reinforce some stereotypes about ON.