Griffith – Australia 2022

Nicholas – perhaps you could elaborate? I did a look to try to find any kind of controversy involving her, and the only thing I found was the QUT student, racist message thing, which turned out to be a minor rush to judgment, and she apologised. I’ve not heard any other issue, and I’ve not noticed any other issue, myself.

I am with you Glen. I have not heard of any particular Terri Butler controversy. Maybe I am out of touch – probably am but still

Jack that is still a very big ask. 3.5% out of votes currently in the 24% is actually huge – 14% or so. Not going to happen this election assuming there is a swing towards ALP. Ryan is more likely because the gap is only 4%, but even so it is a big call.

I have heard not a hint of scandal about Butler but I have heard that two candidates ( not in Griffith) have been arrested, convicted or jailed. I have told the source of this information to be very careful as spreading false rumours is an offence as well as libelous. Google searches have revealed no evidence that the arrest/conviction jailing is truthful we have got to be very careful with social media accusations. In effect I think both of the accusations are false.

Andrew Jackson, I think it’s ridiculous to suggest this website is being used to manipulate the campaign. There are 110 000 people per electorate and very few of them read this website. People are simply sharing their predictions of what will happen based on their experiences and media coverage.

Former Labor senator John Black, now the chairman of a political profiling company, writes in the Australian Financial Review that the Resolve poll from 30 April is showing the Greens at 30% of the vote across Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan (which he collectively refers to as the “goats cheese circle”, a term I have never previously heard of). He claims this would win all three seats for the Greens via Labor preferences if reflected in reality.

The statewide poll shows the Greens at 18%, up 5% on the last poll, with their gain coming partly at the expense of the independent vote, which has fallen from 10% to 2% as Queensland voters have now realised that the Climate 200 group has ignored them. However, some of that independent vote has probably also gone to the Coalition, which is up 7% despite the combined UAP/ONP/Other vote remaining steady. With Labor down 4 points to 27%, I think it’s reasonable to conclude that if the polling is accurate, the Greens increase has also partly come at the expense of Labor.

I think Black is being a little optimistic on the Greens’ prospects in Brisbane and especially Ryan, given the LNP polling figure remains high and their margins have some room to withstand a swing. But alarm bells should be ringing in Terri Butler’s office. Unless Griffith is the exception to the trend of the Labor primary vote falling in two consecutive polls, she has a serious risk of being overtaken by the Greens.

Just reading Andrew’s comment above – which candidate does he not believe was arrested? The UAP one in Higgins, I’m guessing?

@Wilson

The article you mention in the AFR was a good read. Essentially it made the observation that when Brisbane voters that were intending to vote for independents found for the first time that there are no climate independents on their ballots, they immediately opted for the Greens in abundance.

I can read the Betoota Advocate headline already:

Trendy inner-city voter disgruntled by lack of Indie climate candidates, forced to vote for a mainstream climate party instead 🤣

@Wilson

I had actually been wondering if there’s a term to refer to the region roughly corresponding to Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan. “Goats cheese circle” it is, then!

Nicholas
Geographers refer to the This as the Zone of Transition I call it the Brothel Zone or the Zone of Inner City Degeneracy. Certainly my descriptors are accurate for Griffith not quite as accurate for Ryan. Both of them Stretch from the inner city periphery to the outer suburbs. In the case of Ryan it is to the outer wealthy Suburbs case of Griffith to the outer industrial suburbs.

It’s very common in Brisbane to be accosted by goat cheese eating prostitutes who want you to have gay sex and/or an abortion. Best stay Andrew

stay away*

You should try a brothel sometime Andrew, you might even find it fun.

Oddly, most of the brothels I’ve heard of in Greater Brisbane are located in industrial areas, well outside any of the three inner electorates.

Spotted a new bus stop sign for the Greens’ Griffith candidate yesterday. Today, it’s been vandalised and partially torn down.

Looking at this situation from afar, British Columbia, Canada, I see that so far in the election the Greens primary vote is up anywhere from .6% to 2.6%, while Labour’s is up only 1.7%. If, and I saw some inner city polling, Greens primary is up stronger in some inner city seats…then who is going to come ahead Labour or Green is going to be decided on subsequent preferences. Three weeks to go.

It’s interesting that despite an increase in the number of candidates contesting the whole election yet again there’s no left-wing micro candidates running in Griffith. I wonder if the Greens have done some kind of deal to stop them from running?

I went back and looked at the electoral history, and this is actually the lowest number of candidates running in the seat since 1990 (also 5).

I think Griffith had some of the brothels run by the crooked QLD cops from the 50s-80s but not since then (if I recall my brothel history right).

There were no left microparties in 2019, so I have no idea what this is about.

@Greenman Hi Nick 😉

You’re right, Greens up 2.5% in the national poll likely translates into inner-cities of the capitals as a 5 or 10% swing. That is assuming they haven’t been picking up regional growth.

In the Resolve state polling for Queensland, Greens are sitting on 16% – a swing of 6% from 2019. Assuming this swing will be concentrated within the inner-city of Bris, where they already poll strongly, this swing could be 10%+ in Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane. This will certainly put them in striking range.

But perhaps my assumptions are wrong, and the Greens have already reached a high watermark in the city and have instead grown their vote in the regions. Plausible places for growth in the regional Greens vote could be in parts of Gladstone (Greens have really been emphasising their senate candidate is from HappyKnacker), Cairns, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.

I think that’s his point – he’s just pointing out that it’s a seat where Animal Justice or maybe Reason would attract a few voters, but they haven’t ever stood candidates here.

To answer his question though, in the case of AJP or Reason, it’s not because of any deal with the Greens, they’re just saving their resources for state elections and one or two specific federal candidates (eg Jane Caro).

It’s possible, though this is purely my personal conjecture, that the Greens and SA have some sort of pact but it’s more likely a unilateral one on SA’s behalf. Very low chance any of the other micro parties have anything similar going with the Greens specifically. AJP’s HTV recommends Labor over Greens.

Both Labor and the LNP have been sending out anti-Greens flyers in Griffith. We’ve found bipartisan agreement at last! This would suggest both parties see the Greens as having a legitimate chance of winning the seat.

I am an outsider from British Columbia, Canada, but what I’ll observe in looking at elections in the Balkans, Germany and now the UK (except Northern Ireland), is that the pollsters have consistently underestimated Green support in 2022. In the English local government elections Labour were touted to romp home with a deeply unpopular Conservative Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, but it is the Greens who made 63 overall seat gains versus only 22 for Labour. I realize you are nine days out from your election and a lot can happen in that time, but I reckon you will see the Greens make some legislative seat gains as well as achieve their 12 Senate seats. I am not on the ground in Australia, but just looking at what happened in the UK, with Labour leading in the national polls. I may make some predictions on your election eve.

@Greenman, it’s interesting to hear an international perspective. You’re right about the Green Wave that has been seen in many elections recently. Green parties are now part of national governments all around the world – from Germany, to Scotland, all the way to New Zealand and beyond.

Australian state/territory Greens parties have also performed very well in the last couple of years, particularly in Queensland, which is where this seat of Griffith is located.

Only place I would suggest that has bucked the trend that Greenman has mentioned is his home-country of Canada, where the Greens lost over 4% of their national vote in last year’s election.

@SEQ Observer, the Canadian Greens are a bit of an unusual case as they are competing with the NDP, who are in a comparable political position and are generally seen as more credible and better run.

Terri Butler’s team are now pushing infographics on instagram and possibly elsewhere suggesting that a vote for the Greens in her electorate means that ‘Labor doesn’t win 76 seats’ and therefore ‘Morrison stays PM’, the implication being that there is no possibility of Labor agreeing to minority government. Interestingly Justine Elliot, who’s also potentially vulnerable to losing to the Greens is saying similar things on twitter. Also interestingly, AFAIK none of the Labor candidates from Brisbane, Ryan or Higgins are saying this, or at least they haven’t been caught publishing it. You might surmise then that actually Labor are a lot more worried about the prospect of losing Griffith and Richmond then they’ve claimed in media briefings, and that this is just a desperate ploy on the part of the sitting members. But of course Albo himself is on the record claiming the same thing.

Personally I agree with what most people suspect, ie Labor are lying through their teeth, and I’d love to see them put their money where their mouths are

Terri Butler’s infographic is a blatant lie about how Election work in Australia. She is using the same lies against Greens that Tim Wilson uses against Independents.

Justine Elliot on the other hand has been spreading misinformation for a long time, specially when it comes to the Cashless welfare card for pensioners.

The Canadian Greens also had major infighting right as the election got called, with one MP leaving for the Liberals and much of the party’s leadership council and base unwilling to endorse the then-leader over the events (with a lot of talk about revoking her Greens membership).

In terms of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan which of the three has had the worst flooding and flood damage as in 2019 in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Conservative voting communities along the St John River helped tip the balance between Conservative and Green after two straight years of heavy spring freshet flooding. In Canada Climate Change is one factor that has shifted some centre-right and cenntre-left voters Green. The other experience I had in Fredericton, right after a tv Leaders debate, was women voters, in their 70’s, telling me they switched off the debate because the men were yelling over the top of each other. As one women remarked I will not be voting for a man this election, which again left the race between a Conservative and Green women candidate. Next I know AJP has preferenced Labour ahead of Greens, but what about UAP and One Nation, which I assume are preferencing the “Coalition” ahead of Labour and Green. And I also assume that UAP and One Nationm are the two primary anti-vax parties? Next, and finally in this round of questions, how are the “teal independents” preferencing, as surely not all of them think they are going to come second, so am I correct in thinking they will preference Labour and Green ahead of the “Coalition”?

@Furtive Lawngnome

The Labor candidate and volunteers in the division of Brisbane absolutely are saying “the only way to change the government is to vote Labor” to voters.

Furtive and Ben
My understanding is that Australian Labor Party have mad it very clear that they will not do deals with Greens or anyone else. Thereforex if only one of major parties will negotiate the only possibility forgetting rid of Morrison is Albanese. It is not an easy choice. It is vital that whoever is majority in House of Representatives is a minority in Senate.

The major antivax party in Brisbane/Ryan and probably Griffith is the LNP who are running very, very strongly. UAP a no show.

This year I think Ryan copped more flooding that Brisbane – not sure about Griffith. Milton went completely under- the primary school has only now getting back to normal.

Albanese has said they won’t do deals but that doesn’t mean they can’t form minority government, they just won’t have guarantees of confidence and supply (although the Greens have basically already given it). Butler has been claiming something more extreme, that Labor wouldn’t form government at all unless they won 76 seats.

The North Rhine Westphalia election results are in and they again are showing that the pollsters underestimated the centre-right CDU and Greens +2.7% and +1.7% respectively and over-estimated the social democrats -1.8%. It is going to be very interesting to see the accuracy of the Australian pollsters, as there seems to be a trend this year along the lines of what I described above.

I also checked out five (May 5th) inner city boroughs, north of the Thames, in London and despite the fact that Labour are leading the Conservatives in the national polls by 3% to 5% Labour lost 1.6% support in those five inner city boroughs, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and others 2.6%, while the Greens gained 4.4% support.

Maverick: West End copped a dredging too. That whole area just west of the CBD next to the river – West End, Milton, Auchenflower – was hit pretty bad.

Ben: If there’s a distinction between exactly what Butler and Albanese have said, then Justine Elliot is claiming that harder line too, and implicitly on behalf of the rest of the Labor party. From @JElliotMP:

‘Every seat that Labor doesn’t win helps Scott Morrison stay as PM.

We need Labor to win 76 seats – including Richmond – to get rid of Scott Morrison.’

and

‘No minority government – I don’t know how much clearer any of us can be.

Every seat the Greens take off Labor means Labor is one seat further from gaining 76 seats.’

No one else from Labor is rushing to correct her

Ben’s right.

Butler’s bluffing to gee up the punters. If Labor were to land on 74 seats, they’d form government with Wilkie and Bandt no worries. It’s just the usual Red-Green wars.

TV ads ran heavy during Lego Masters last night pushing inky way to change government is Labor 1 both houses. I’d say they are worried about third party prefences costing them sears.

I see that Roy Morgan has their latetest and possibly last poll out and it shows the Greens unshifted at 13% and it is being noted this is the highest first preference since 2010, in fact highest ever. Meanwhile Poll Bludger has Green on 14.1% in Queensland and I cannot imagine that means rural and northern Queensland.

I assume that the Greens are on track to win twelve Senate seats, but I will be closely watching the results coming in from Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane early Saturday morning in British Columbia. Political parties do not do things in elections, except out of pure self interest…so that tells me that Labour, who according to Roy Morgan, are down to a neck and neck 34% first preference with Morrison’s Liberals are worried.

The way the Queensland Green vote has largely been at the expense of regional areas with a huge increase in the inner suburbs of Brisbane. Realistically this would cause a swing of up to 10% towards the Greens in their three target seats which will make it very intriguing indeed.

Look it seems to be overlooked in all the Sydney centric media commentary, but in Brisbane the greens are playing the role of the Teals in that they are an alternative to the LNP for many. There are three seats in the mix- Brisbane and Ryan, both held by the LNP and Griffith held by the ALP. Now with a general swing even a mild one to the ALP, Griffith will stay with the ALP, but both Ryan and Brisbane potentially could go Green.

This morning I see Resolve Strategic has the Greens on 14%, the Poll Bludger has the Greens in Queensland on 14.4%, only .8% behind Labour in voter growth in that state. My one question, this morning, is what happens to the “teal” preferences if they do not make the cut, who are they preferencing among LNP, Labour and Green?

In Qld there are not any Teales just now. The Greens are filling that niche or perhaps Animal Justice. There are no high profile moderate independents. We tend to throw up right wing populists not Teales.

The Greens are certainly on a roll if the number of Green only HTV takers is any indication. The Green vote in inner city Brisbane will likely reach 25%.

As the “Teals” are independents they’ll all have slightly different preference recommendations. Some, such as the current Member for Indi, Helen Haines, are just telling people to choose their own preferences. I’d say that most of their voters will preference away from the Liberals, probably going to other independents, minor parties, and the Greens, before finishing with putting Labor above the Liberals and PHON/UAP etc.

No sure if this is relevant but just did a comparison of the results for the Huon Legislative Council seat in Tasmanis 2020 versus 2022. Green first preferences increased by 1.7% to 19.2%, but transfer of preferences at point of elimination increased by 4.6% to 25.5%. Labour won the Council seat in 2020, but lost to an Independent in 2022, who won on Liberal preferences. The other thing I noted was that 43.4% of The Local Party preferences transferred to the Greens compared to only 5.6% of the Liberal ones. So that might be an interesting turn of events, in that if “Teal Independents” push past Liberal does that mean Liberal voters would preference them over Labour?

Huon is very different to Griffith; very rural, lot more actual hippies.

Probably the best electorate to compare to Griffith would be the state seat of South Brisbane, as it’s located in the same area of Brisbane as Griffith: https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/qld2020/southbrisbane2020

Firefox – except it also takes in at least parts of Mansfield, Greenslopes, Bulimba, and Chatsworth. Greens got 9.3% in Chatsworth, 13.4% in Bulimba, and 9.6% in Mansfield. In Greenslopes, they did a bit better, with 23.4%.

My point, of course, is that you can’t just go “South Brisbane is in Griffith, so you can compare them as being equivalent”. It misses some substantial variations.

Agree with you Glen, South Brisbane state district barely covers 50% of Griffith, only reaching to Coorparoo at best with the outer parts of Griffith overlapping with seats like Bulimba and others which recorded much lower Green votes

“Firefox – except it also takes in at least parts of”

***

Of course, I wasn’t suggesting that they had the same borders. Griffith is obviously much larger than SB. I never said they were the “equivalent” of each other as you have suggested. I said it was a good seat to use as a comparison, which it is as they do share a lot of the same area and more importantly the same voters – SB is within Griffith.