Griffith – Australia 2022

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/griffith2022/comment-page-1#comment-764608

1.93% and 1.63%, even if the entire swing comes from the Liberals/LNP (meaning no adjustments downward like from the raw gap, unlike adjusting down from the raw 7% gap in Griffith), are still better 3CP starting gaps than 4.2% and thus easier to close.

interesting to see how the State election results effect Griffith here. Greens are running a big campaign

Its a pity that Greens are pouring a lot of resources in this seat, when they no chance here and have all the chance of winning the seat of Brisbane across the river! Only if they tried. Wasted op:-(

Soyboi, the greens hold the south Brisbane state district so I wouldn’t say it is a completely wasted opportunity

Soy boi Mullet unfortunately I do not have acces to the exact quote at the moment but Senator Jack Kane DLP NSW Senator 1970-1974 in his autobiography wites about the hundreds of DLP candidates who stood in state and federal elections who had not a snow balls chance in hell of winning but stood time after time and in doing so kept the name of the party in the news And converted some of this recognition into votes.By standing they managed to harvest votes for the Senate and in doing so resulted in the DLP gaining 2 Senators in 1964 and a further 3 in the next few years I wish that DLP and Katter had attracted this sort of knocked down get up again and try for the next election in last few years . The Greens will be last on my ballot paper unless a uniformed NAZI or Com stands but I admire their persistence.
Travelling down Moggil Rd a week ago I expected to see them out campaigning. If the likes of me expect them then they are campaigning well.

I am not sure what the ground game currently looks like. But my gut feeling says that this could be a tighter competition than it seems based on previous margins.

Max the greens candidate/team know how to run a good ground game and are going hard on doorknocking. Strong ground games have delivered for the Greens at the Gabba and South Brisbane state levels and they’re using this leverage to campaign hard in areas they haven’t targeted in the past.

I’m unsure how great Labor’s ground game is – does anyone have some insight?

Definitely a seat to watch I think.

Yoh An, yes you are correct but Greens have usually picked up seats easily in 3way contests rather than head to heads with Labour. Example: Maiwar. They picked this before the seat of South Brisbane (even though SB is substantially more left than Maiwar) coz they weren’t up against a strong Labour candidate in Maiwar and were going against a Liberal incumbent.
Andrew Jackson, yes, they are persistent but not strategic enough to accumulate more power.

Souboi
My comment appears to have been in Griffith. My apologies but I was talking about Ryan not Griffith. The Greens have no chance in Griffith and their strong booths in this seat are enclaves Of yuppie commuters in a seat that is strongly ALP. I was Katter campaign manager during the Griffith By election. I put all of my resources in the outer areas and treated the Bulimba enclave as a waste of our resources. Sorry for my error.

I said I wasn’t sure whether the party was publicizing this but apparently the candidates themselves are publishing them on social media. So as far as ground game goes, as some of you may know the Greens’ Ryan candidate has had over 12000 conversations which puts her well in front of Adam Bandt’s winning campaign in 2010 (and everything since). Max Chandler Mather has had over 20000 in Griffith. Anyone who thinks they’re not serious contenders this election, especially Max in Griffith, doesn’t have the faintest clue what they’re talking about.

BTW from their internal data, which again they’ve publicized so I’m not spilling trade secrets here, they expect between 1/4 to 1/3 of the voters they’ve engaged in meaningful conversations to flip their votes.

Max certainly isn’t home free yet but Griffith will be a very, very close race.

Furtive
Andrew Jones Liberal in 1966 door knocked every house in Adelaide electorate. His campaigning was excellent even if his performance in PatrliMent was less than effective. Brought down by his “half drunk half of the time” description of his fellow members.
12000 clicks is good but most candidates fail to understand that just because the punter does not tell them to F off is not an indicator of support.

FL, There’s nothing more than I’d like than for two of the most smug QLD MPs to go. But having worked on many campaigns myself, I can honestly say that ‘data’ gleaned from doorknocking and conversations with consituents is about as unreliable as it gets.

As AJ said, most people are polite; if they disagree with you, they probably won’t tell you to your face. Even if they are genuinely convinced, who’s to say another candidate won’t come along in the meantime and change their mind again? For the Greens, it’s even worse because they often have to break decades of major-party voting habits. I hope to be proven wrong, but I don’t see the Greens winning here or in Ryan this time around.

Right, which is why I made the follow up post. Not everyone who engages them will flip their vote, but an awful lot will, so the possibility of the Greens increasing their primary vote somewhere in the ballpark they did last election is a high one, and doing as much as that almost certainly wins the seat for them after preferences.

Also I assume you meant South Brisbane rather than Bulimba re: the Greens’ enclave? Because while you could describe Bulimba as a yuppie sort of area, it definitely isn’t one of the Greens enclaves. In fact it’s one of the worst suburbs for them in Griffith.

Soyboi Mullet, how do you define a three way contest? The LNP will likely make the final count in Griffith again, even if they will probably lose to whoever their final count opponent is. So the LNP cannot be discounted in factoring the path to a Greens or Labor victory, because even if they’re not the incumbent, the Greens-Labor battle will not be fought on 100% of the valid votes, but on the 55-65% that aren’t going to the LNP at the 3CP stage.

Because of this, I would call Griffith as much of a three way contest as Brisbane is. And speaking of Griffith, I feel like you haven’t factored a few points into your analysis of the comparative likelihood of a Greens victory there compared to Griffith:

1. Brisbane’s Green heartland of Kelvin Grove is smaller and has a lower Greens primary vote than Griffith’s Green heartland of West End, Hill End, South Brisbane and Woolloongabba.

2. Griffith’s Greens candidate, Max Chandler-Mather, appears to be running for the second time in a row, so he will have built up more name recognition in the community this election. By contrast, Brisbane’s Greens candidate, Stephen

(continued)
Bates, appears to be running for the first time, so doesn’t have the same name recognition. He is also succeeding 2019’s candidate, the well-known former Senator Andrew Bartlett. It’s possible Bartlett had a personal vote that will now fall away and have to be made up by Bates.

3. As Furtive Lawngnome has said, Griffith’s Greens campaign has a bigger ground game than Ryan’s, and presumably bigger than Brisbane’s too. That’s a big factor in how many votes an outsider candidate can win.

For these reasons, I wouldn’t say Brisbane is a more likely Greens victory than Griffith. We’ll see on election day though.

The Courier Mail have reported that a Greens internal poll shows a 7.54% primary vote swing to their candidate Max Chandler-Mather. If accurate, this would win the seat for the Greens unless Labor get a similarly large swing from those who voted LNP in 2019. Internal polling is in general notoriously inaccurate, but the Courier Mail defends the poll by claiming the same method successfully predicted the primary vote of both Greens MPs at the 2020 Queensland election and also that of Greens Brisbane City Councillor Jonathan Sri in 2016. Could just be Murdoch media trying to whip its readers into action to support LNP candidates, or maybe a shift is indeed underway.

I reckon Labor are in big trouble here to the Greens, the area generally is trending Green at a fast rate. I think Greens will get this and obviously retain Melbourne and give a contest in Brisbane.

Whoever the member is after the election, they’ll probably need to call O’Brien
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101005800

If the Greens have leaked internal polling then they are clearly only doing so because they think this is advantageous. If they think they are going to win the last thing they would be doing is making this public. They would be hiding the poll from all including their candidate.

Andrew Jackson, I don’t understand the reasoning for your conclusion. One of the objections people have to voting Greens is the belief they will never get elected, so there’s no point. Leaking this polling has got the media talking about the real possibility of the Greens winning, which will make some voters reconsider their decision to write off the Greens. I don’t see how that would change whether they believe they are going to win or not.

Wilson, the irony is that if the Courier Mail does swing voters (back) to LNP this will almost certainly cause Terri Butler to win. If LNP beats Greens on the primary vote, Greens preferences will push Butler over the line on the 2PP. The realistic choice for LNP voters is either an ALP win (and possibly ALP control of the H of R) or a Greens win (and possibly a hung Parliament). Which outcome would a rational LNP voter prefer?

The Liberals and Australian Labor Party should have negotiated an agreement on how to deal with a hung Parliament.
My solution would have been
1) in the event of a minority the party with the most seats would form government and that the vote of any minor party MP will be countered by a major party MP not voting. This would wipe out the influence of Greens in House of Represenyatives but it is an agreement that has to be negotiated prior to the election.

Game Theorist, the LNP has a huge lead in primary vote and should beat both the Greens and Labor again. Perhaps you meant to say “if Labor beats the Greens on the primary vote”?

A rational and informed LNP voter would know this is really a Labor-Greens contest, although not every voter is rational or informed. If they are, then yes, they face the choice you mentioned. I think most would see Labor as being closer to their views on things like tax cuts and vote for them, but the more cunning ones might prefer seeing a hung parliament in the hope that the public will disapprove of any resultant minority Labor government.

That being said, I’ve looked through The Courier Mail’s comments sections (on other stories, as the one mentioned above wasn’t open for comments), and they’re full of staunch conservatives claiming that Labor and the Greens are the same entity in practice, because Albanese apparently takes orders from the Greens on policy. This is plainly not true, as anyone would realise if they’ve spent five minutes looking at each party’s policies or even just their publicly expressed views of one another, but it shows that many LNP voters aren’t rational or informed. Those are exactly the sort of people who would be frightened by reading the story. I think they’d stick to voting LNP, and maybe even feel inspired to help campaign for the LNP as a result.

But perhaps that’s not The Courier Mail’s actual motive. Perhaps it’s just that their business model relies on keeping those people frightened, so that they’ll continue to take refuge in conservative media. News of an imminent Greens victory would be scary enough to keep those people renewing their subscription to their conservative safe spaces. Or maybe they’re just doing their job as reporters. We’ll find out on election day.

Andrew Jackson, I’m not sure that would ever happen, because who would want to be the head of a government that cannot pass its agenda? The sclerosis would surely annoy voters and that party would be soundly punished at the next election. Maybe even both parties would be punished if their collusion to circumvent the elected parliament was that obvious.

That’s leaving aside whether the major parties trust each other enough to adhere to such a system. Remember the Victorian Liberals infamously exploited the pairing system under false pretences to reject a bill, despite not having a majority against it in a full parliamentary sitting.

As much as Labor resents the Greens for taking the votes of progressives, I doubt they’d collude with the Liberals just to screw the Greens or any other non-major over. They should never lose sight of who the real enemy is.

Greens 7% less than alp.and libs roughly 10% more than alp as primary votes. This is hard to turn round enough for greens to outpoll Labor or liberals to poll 3rd …most likely alp win

Agree with you, Mick. As I just said on the Higgins thread, I am very doubtful of the idea the Greens are a very strong chance here. In my view, the Greens have a very strong chance of gaining Higgins, and not much else. Maybe an outside shot in a place like here, Macnamara, or Richmond, but it doesn’t look likely. The problem for the Greens is that they need the ALP primary to drop while theirs rises, but in a place like Griffith I feel like while the Greens primary will increase, the ALP won’t fall. What is happening there is progressive ALP voters switching to the Greens, while moderate LNP voters switching to the ALP and Greens. Enough switching to the ALP so their primary vote isn’t hurt, leaving the Greens in a better but not good enough situation. Greens will have a great shot to pick up a plethora of seats in 2025 if Labor wins this election, due to progressive backlash to a “not good enough” Labor government. However this election as I said it’s maybe Higgins and nothing else.

Andrew, your proposal is totally antidemocratic and is essentially appalling semi fascism. Of course it would need to also apply to the National Party, except in Qld where they are united.

It is a democratic fact of life that Independents and Greens get e elected because more people prefer them to either of the big two. Both the big two parties have, over the last 30 years changed their demographic of membership and voter base, so it is inevitable that the democratic processes will throw up independents or minor parties. That is a very good thing.

A hung parliament is quite possible this year, with as many as 15 or even 20 seats on the cross benches. Are you potentially denying the voters of Melbourne, Kooyong, Higgins, Indi, Wills, Griffith, Ryan, Kennedy, Brisbane, Clarke, Mayo, Warringah, North Sydney, Mackellar, Canberra and possibly more should not contribute to government????

Must add Grey, Wentwoth, Golstein and possibly others.

Wilson, re your comments on the 16 April: My only assumption as to why Greens have a better chance of taking Brisbane over Griffith is that Labor voters seem to find it easier to switch to Greens if the incumbent is a liberal. This is why Maiwar in the state election went Green before South Brisbane, even though Westend and Woolloongabba are more to the left of Toowong and St Lucia. Also, LNP preferencing Greens over Labor just to spite Jackie Trad is one of the main reasons Greens picked up South Brisbane. I don’t think that LNP is pursuing the same strategy in the federal election. Other than that I agree with you that Max is a great candidate. I hope he wins and Queensland sends a Greens MP or two to the lower house before NSW does.

Soyboi
The Liberals decision to preference Greens ahead of Australian Labor Party was an error on their part and from talking to liberal volunteers I think they knew this was a mistake. Them supporting Greens ahead of Jackie Trad and their refusal to condemn the policies of Campbell Newman made my decision to vote for local Australian Labor Party MLA Chris Whiting a much easier decision. One thing all of the minor parties agree on is place the Greens last the only time that I know this not to have occurred was when furring a by election we had an ex uniformed Nazi standing

SBM: The Greens won Maiwar in 2017 with just under 28% of the primary vote, barely 0.3% above the primary vote of the Labor candidate in Maiwar, and lost South Brisbane in the same year with 34%- that was despite an 11% swing to Amy MacMahon. But Maiwar does provide a bit of evidence that Labor voters are far more willing to switch their primary vote to the Greens once they’ve already proven they can win the electorate. Michael Berkman got a 14% swing towards him on primary votes in 2020, despite only a 4% swing on 2PP.

Terri Butler doesn’t have anywhere near the kind of buffer Jackie Trad had in 2017. If she suffers that kind of swing to the Greens that Jackie Trad had then she has no chance. But I really doubt it’s going to be anything that dramatic. She has every chance of holding on.

It’ll be interesting what happens in 2025. Griffith’s due for redistricting and there’s no way Labor are hanging on by then on current borders. I suspect they’ll try to convince the AEC to crack the South Brisbane area and redistribute it into Moreton to fend off any LNP insurgency.

Soyboi Mullet, LNP preferences are irrelevant in Griffith because they make the final count every time due to having the highest primary vote. They haven’t achieved that in South Brisbane in the last two state elections. Therein lies the difference. Also note that Maiwar is covered by Ryan federally. Brisbane doesn’t cover a state Greens seat at all and thus has a smaller Greens base.

I don’t agree that Labor supporters will find it easier to switch their vote to the Greens in Brisbane, because Labor have very high hopes of taking that seat, and losing votes to the Greens makes that a harder task. Perhaps the real factor is whether the Labor voters considering changing to the Greens are doing so based on heartfelt values that they no longer feel Labor are properly representing. My guess is that the campaign with the stronger ground game would do a better job of convincing more people, and that sounds like Griffith.

I too hope for a Greens victory in a seat somewhere.

Soyboi Mullet – “Also, LNP preferencing Greens over Labor just to spite Jackie Trad is one of the main reasons Greens picked up South Brisbane.”

Actually, when the LNP were knocked out, about 2300 more votes went to Greens than went to Labor… but the final margin was about 3500 votes. It would have taken almost a complete flip of preference flow to get Labor over the line, but I’m certain that enough LNP voters would still have put Trad last, even if the HTV said to put Greens below her, that it would have kept the flow to more like 50/50. Rightly or wrongly, Trad had been specifically demonised in the leadup to the 2020 qld election, and the Liberals were never going to ease up on Trad just because it might mean the Greens win the seat.

In 2017 Labor had a really excellent candidate for the seat (Maiwar) – right demographic, looks etc, so it is not surprising she got much closer – Far more LNP swinger types would have gone for her originally.

Now for greens to win Griffith it would require a very big anti LNP swing of 10% almost all of which will go Green, combined with a small swing from ALP to Greens.

Or a large – say 6% swing from the LNP say 4% to greens, combined with a swing ALP to greens of 4-5%

Terry Butler is quite popular, so this will not happen.

If there is an anti LNP landslide of 11-12%, then it is possible, but even then the bulk of LNP preferences would need to go Green.

Greens best hope is to narrow the margin and aim at winning the seat should Butler retire or block her copy book in some way.

Wilson, yes, bringing up LNP preferences in Griffith was a distraction as they tend to make the final count. Having said that I strongly feel that the Greens have to pursue three different strategies simultaneously to snatch a Labour seat (especially, when Labour is in opposition).
1. To convince undecided/low information/swing voters to vote for them
2. To directly convince Labour voters to switch
3. To passively or actively seek LNP’s help.
LNP seems to be all for option 3 (especially, in a seat that they have no chance of winning, while seeking a fourth consecutive term), as they love running a scare campaign about a minority Labour/Greens government. If Greens can’t pursue all three options simultaneously, then I don’t see them winning a Labour seat. There is a 7% primary gap between Labour and the Greens, which is much bigger than the difference in Brisbane (~2%) and Ryan (~4%).
On the other hand, gaining a Liberal held seat is a different story, Labour voters are not strongly attached to their candidate coz they are not incumbents, and they don’t have a big-name ID (at least this time). Also, Brisbane and Ryan are the only two seats in QLD, where Liberal incumbents suffered swings against them of more than ~2%. I am pretty sure these swings against Liberal incumbents will happen in this election too (not sure how big of a swing though). Considering the smaller gaps between Labour and Greens in these seats, I can see Greens snatching a previously Liberal seat (if voters decide to boot the liberals) with Labour preferences and if they manage to make the final count. But Greens have to run a strong campaign like their Griffith one in these seats to make the final count, which in my opinion, they are not. Definitely not!
I am aware that Maiwar is in Ryan and Brisbane doesn’t cover a Greens seat in the state level but Greens’ primary vote is bigger in Brisbane than Ryan. This could have been coz of Andrew Bartlett running but still. So, Greens had a better chance of going into final count and potentially winning in Brisbane before this campaign started but now if liberals fail to hold this seat, it will go to Labour coz of their strong campaign here, which in my opinion a missed opportunity for the Greens. Having said all these, I would be super happy if Courier mail’s poll is correct in Griffith.
Furtive Lawngnome, yes, if AEC changes Griffith’s boundary in 2025, it would be really interesting, especially if they drop Bulimba and Balmoral. Also, even if the state election’s 7% swings against Trad were repeated here, it would only reduce Butler’s primary vote by ~2.5 and she still would be above Greens’ primary vote count.

Maverick: “Now for greens to win Griffith it would require a very big anti LNP swing of 10% almost all of which will go Green, combined with a small swing from ALP to Greens. Or a large – say 6% swing from the LNP say 4% to greens, combined with a swing ALP to greens of 4-5%. Terry Butler is quite popular, so this will not happen.”

It really depends more on preference flows.

In order for the Greens to win, they need to get enough as flows happen to get ahead of either Labor or LNP. If the Greens are seeing a 7.5% swing to them on primary vote, that puts them at 31.2% primary vote. That means a 10% swing against the LNP would push Greens ahead of LNP on primary vote. This is not inconceivable, if the Greens are seeing a 7.5% swing to them.

A hypothetical scenario that is somewhat feasible is:

Labor – 33%
Greens – 31.2%
LNP – 30%
PHON+UAP – 5.8%

Now, PHON and UAP voters typically come in three flavours – anti-Majors, anti-Left, and disengaged voters. HTV will impact the final result, of course, but what helps the Greens, here, is that both anti-Majors and disengaged voters will favour Greens, at least somewhat. Some disengaged voters will follow the HTV, others will put the 1 next to their choice, and then donkey vote the rest.

In this scenario, as long as flow from PHON+UAP to LNP isn’t more than 20% higher than flow to Greens, the Greens stay ahead. This could mean 50% to LNP and 30% to Greens, which seems plausible…

Looking at South Brisbane’s flow pattern leading into the 3CP, the Greens got 30% of the flow, while the LNP got 42%. And at that point, PHON and UAP were both campaigning specifically against Labor and the Left, whereas at this election things are more… interesting.

So I wouldn’t rule out a Greens win…

Why are people talking about LNP preferences? They are simply not going to fall into 3rd place in Griffith.

Their 2019 three party preferred result was 43.4% for goodness sake. Even running dead they will easily surpass 33% and be in at worst 2nd place at the relevant exclusion point.

Bennee – The current PollBludger prediction for Queensland is LNP down 6.2% on PV and 8.5% on 2PP. And that’s across the state. And then you need to factor in that the Greens have done a huge push, here in Griffith (yes, my electorate).

I can’t comment more broadly, but I drive along the path from Stanley Road (in Carina) through to the highway in Woolloongabba, and I see quite a few Greens corflutes and only a couple of Labor ones (and no others). It has even become a thing, with the BCC trying to tell the Greens that they have to have a heap of them removed because of a nonsense by-law around political advertising, that’s tantamount to government restricting legal political communication on private property.

It’s by no means guaranteed, but it is definitely plausible that the Liberals fall into third place if any further swing against the LNP happens.

It may also be worth noting that I live in the area of Griffith that overlaps the state district of Chatsworth, which went LNP at the state election, and yet I haven’t even seen a hint of LNP campaign materials since the election was called – not billboards, not corflutes, not letter-drops… most of the stuff I’ve seen have been for Brisbane, rather than Griffith.

Makes me think the LNP are channelling their efforts into trying to hold onto Brisbane, rather than trying to win Griffith (despite a less than 3% margin). And if they’re doing that, I could totally see LNP PV dropping enough for Greens to end up in second place.

Greens eyeing off Labor on the 2PP vote

Furtive, do you believe it likely that the AEC would crack the South Brisbane area in the next redistribution? I feel like South Brisbane, West End, Highgate Hill, Dutton Park, Woolloongabba and Kangaroo Point all form a strong community of interest, as they’re inner city suburbs that are united in the same council ward and state electorate. That’s a solid block of about 30-35 000 voters. I imagine many would object to efforts to divide them into two federal electorates.

The more likely outcome in my mind would be the southern and eastern extremities being moved into Bonner. Holland Park West, Mount Gravatt East, Murrarie and Cannon Hill are already split across Griffith and Bonner, and unifying them in Bonner would be an easy solution. Nearby suburbs like Carina Heights and Holland Park could also be candidates to move.

There is a chance that LNP fall to 3rd on primary votes and re-elect Butler even if Greens pull ahead on primaries.

However the LNP did preference Greens in 2020 (in every seat, but most notably South Brisbane) and haven’t seemed to rule out doing that again?

I wonder what count the AEC will do on the night?

The LNP would have to lose around 15 percentage points of their first preference vote to fall into third place.

Wilson: Those would be more sensible solutions, but Labor aren’t as interested in sensible solutions as they are politically advantageous ones, and as the Macnamara/Higgins redistribution proves, the AEC is apparently happy enough to pander to them. Will they indulge them this time? I dunno. The precedent’s there.

Nicholas: A 11% drop in 3PP could potentially do it, going by the AEC tally room, but you’re counting on the fairy tale Queensland polling being believable and that the swings are particularly concentrated in Brisbane (at which point the LNP are basically extinct throughout Brisbane, Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich etc). The LNP have more or less abandoned Griffith so maayyybe it’s conceivable? I’m not convinced they’re quite at that stage yet.

This has been a delightful read, there are some wild theories here. I do hope everyone come back after the election to see how your theories play out against reality. For my two cents; I am an Greens partisan and an active campaigner in Griffith for many years now and I think we’re gonna win it with an ~7% swing. It is mostly gonna come off Labor, although a structural swing against the LNP will buffer Labor’s vote a bit.

Greens have gotten over 6% swings at both the last federal elections based on big ground campaigns and winning local and state seats in the area. Terri is an abysmal local candidate; her vote has dropped every election she’s contested and is nearly a full 10% down from when it was Rudd’s seat. These trends will continue and the swing against the LNP won’t be enough to save Labor.

While I think the chance of the Greens in Griffith are very, very small, massive swings against the LNP are a feature of Qld voters and my gut tells me there is a big swing on- not as big as when Newman was turfed out but still big.

Dr Loschmidt: “Terri is an abysmal local candidate; her vote has dropped every election she’s contested and is nearly a full 10% down from when it was Rudd’s seat. These trends will continue and the swing against the LNP won’t be enough to save Labor.”

You mean there’s been a reduction in vote over the three elections that Labor lost? Wow, shocking.

The LNP vote in Griffith has also been dropping. I don’t think you can attribute it to Butler being in any way a bad candidate. And as a Labor/Green swing voter in Griffith, I would say she’s done a good job. Obviously, with you being an active campaigner for the Greens, you’re going to disagree, but I’m the sort of person that matters for this kind of judgment, as a person who swings between the two parties.

The Greens have a chance, here. But so do Labor – and I’d say Labor’s in the stronger position, in part due to Butler’s personal vote.

On Butler, I can tell you this – I have always voted Greens above Labor above Liberal in federal elections, but if I lived in Griffith in 2016, I would’ve put the LNP above Labor, because of Butler. I can’t think of another Labor MP for whom I can say this for.

(My opinion of the Coalition deteriorated to the point where I would not have done this in 2019, albeit with reluctance.)

Looks like there is a bit of a concerted push to predict that ALP will be below Greens . The Greens poll under 15% but somehow they are going to overtake ALP that polls a bit over 35% primary vote. Tally Room is being used to manipulate the campaign.

Andrew J that’s not correct at all. At the 3CP stage from Fed 19; GRN 24.8%, ALP 31.8%, LNP 47.14%.

A 3.5% swing from Butler to Chandler-Mather is all it would take.

** That should be LNP 43.4%!