ALP 2.9%
Incumbent MP
Terri Butler, since 2014.
Geography
Southern Brisbane. Griffith covers the suburbs of Brisbane on the south side of the Brisbane river across the river from the Brisbane CBD, including South Brisbane itself, as well as Greenslopes, Holland Park, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, Coorparoo, Carina, Seven Hills, Morningside, Balmoral and Bulimba.
History
Griffith was created for the 1934 election, replacing the original seat of Oxley which was abolished at that election. Both Oxley and Griffith have been marginal seats, with Griffith swinging back and forth regularly between the Liberal Party and the ALP since 1949, although this has not usually coincided with national changes. The seat had become relatively safe for the ALP since it was won by Kevin Rudd in 1998, but has since become more marginal.
The seat was first won in 1934 by Labor MP Francis Baker, who had previously won the seat of Oxley off the United Australia Party, ironically at an election when the UAP swept away the federal Labor government.
Baker was re-elected in 1937, but was killed in a car accident in 1939 at the age of 36. Ironically his father was elected to federal parliament in Maranoa in 1940, after his son’s term in Parliament.
The 1939 Griffith by-election was won by Labor candidate William Conelan. Conelan held the seat until he lost Griffith to Liberal candidate Douglas Berry in 1949.
Berry was re-elected in 1951 but lost to the ALP’s Wilfred Coutts. Coutts held on in 1955 but failed to win re-election in 1958, losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Chresby, and winning it back in 1961.
Coutts lost the seat once again in 1966, when the seat was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron held the seat for eleven years, moving to the new seat of Fadden in 1977. He held Fadden until his defeat in 1983, and returned to Parliament at the 1983 Moreton by-election, which he held until his retirement in 1990.
The ALP regained Griffith in 1977, with Ben Humphreys winning the seat. Humphreys served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1987 until 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
The ALP preselected Kevin Rudd, but he lost to Graeme McDougall (LIB). McDougall only held on for one term, losing to Rudd in 1998. Rudd joined the ALP shadow ministry in 2001 as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, a role he held for five years.
Rudd’s profile rose as Shadow Foreign Minister, and he was considered a contender for the ALP leadership when Simon Crean resigned in 2003 and when Mark Latham resigned in 2005, but he waited until late 2006 when he challenged Kim Beazley, and was elected leader, and then proceeded to win the 2007 federal election, becoming Prime Minister.
Kevin Rudd was removed as Labor leader and Prime Minister in June 2010, and was re-elected in Griffith as a Labor backbencher. He returned to the ministry as Foreign Minister following the election. He returned to the backbench as part of a failed challenge to Julia Gillard’s leadership in February 2012. Kevin Rudd again challenged for the Labor leadership in June 2013, and returned to the Prime Ministership.
Rudd led Labor to defeat at the 2013 election – he was re-elected in Griffith with a 3% margin, but resigned shortly after. The seat was won at an early 2014 by-election by Labor’s Terri Butler, in the face of a 1.25% swing to the Liberal National Party. Butler was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.
Assessment
This electorate is a marginal contest between Labor and the LNP, and it is not hard to imagine Labor losing to the LNP, although Labor’s vote is close to a low point in Queensland. Labor also outpolled the Greens by 7% at the key exclusion point in 2019. If the Greens can close that gap, Labor would lose and the Greens would likely win on Labor preferences. That gap is still quite substantial but remains one of the Greens’ most appealing prospects.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 40,816 | 41.0 | -0.2 |
| Terri Butler | Labor | 30,836 | 31.0 | -2.2 |
| Max Chandler-Mather | Greens | 23,562 | 23.7 | +6.7 |
| Julie Darlington | One Nation | 2,109 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Christian John Julius | United Australia Party | 1,444 | 1.4 | +1.5 |
| Tony Murray | Conservative National Party | 850 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 2,302 | 2.3 | -1.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terri Butler | Labor | 52,659 | 52.9 | +1.4 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 46,958 | 47.1 | -1.4 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Bulimba in the north, Greenslopes in the south, South Brisbane in the west and a series of booths along the eastern boundary.
Labor won the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.2% in Bulimba to 63.6% in South Brisbane. The LNP managed to narrowly win the pre-poll vote despite a significant deficit on election day.
But Labor is competing here not just against the LNP but also against the Greens, who are hoping to overtake Labor. If you look at the relative strength of Labor on the primary vote, the pattern is very different.
The Labor vote is lowest in South Brisbane, where they polled the best on the two-party-preferred vote, and best in the east, where they barely defeated the LNP. The Greens vote varies from 17.8% to 36.1%. The Greens vote is a threat to Labor, but if they fail to overtake Labor their preferences become crucial to Labor’s two-party-preferred majority.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bulimba | 20.3 | 31.7 | 50.2 | 18,531 | 18.6 |
| Greenslopes | 25.5 | 32.7 | 56.3 | 14,259 | 14.3 |
| South Brisbane | 36.1 | 29.9 | 63.6 | 13,586 | 13.6 |
| East | 17.8 | 34.8 | 51.5 | 7,400 | 7.4 |
| Pre-poll | 22.3 | 28.9 | 49.5 | 28,782 | 28.9 |
| Other votes | 20.6 | 31.3 | 50.6 | 17,059 | 17.1 |
Election results in Griffith at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
the only way labor will win back this seat is if they end up with a higher 3pp vote than the liberals. this would force a greens/labor contest and labor would benefit from right wing party preferences. max chandler mather is a flop imo but i doubt he’ll lose the seat as the liberal vote is quite high in some areas (such as around bulimba). i find it funny that he seems to think that places like inala could fall to the greens in the future despite advocating for social issues that are completely out of touch with the socially-conservative, working class migrants that live in these areas. if the greens truly want to establish themselves as a dominant and electable left-wing party then they need to come up with a suite of policies that are attractive to the majority of labor’s base (consisting of the working poor, migrants, public servants and educated professionals). otherwise they will remain a party solely attractive to australia’s youth, lgbt+ community, hipsters, and inner-city professionals.
I doubt Griffith would flip back to Labor in 2025, though it’s not impossible for Labor/LNP to win this. It depends on the 3CP and even how One Nation and other minor right-wing parties perform (given they preference Labor ahead of Greens). Labor has been on a downward spiral here since 2010. Labor has a better chance in Brisbane where the 3CP is much tighter in 2022.
Every now and then, there’s a rumour of a Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott comeback. I don’t believe Kevin Rudd will contest here.
Terri Butler running again is more likely. Labor’s answer to Sophie Mirabella.
Labor may get some mileage here out of running an explicitly centre-right campaign, telling LNP voters to “Vote Labor to get rid of the Greens” and even preferencing Liberals over Greens on HTVs. But I don’t think that would work.
Labor could run Anastasia or Peter Beattie here especially if the former losses the 2024 state election.
Downside is they would be parachuted candidates. Same with Kristina Kenneally, although they were terrific premiers and I would take them any day over a fascist member of the Liberal party such as a Katherine Deves.
Liberal party people need to realise we won’t ever support a party that is drifting further and further to the right at the federal level and need to change drastically if they want our vote.
Time to address the climate crisis and COMMIT to higher taxes to fund our services. Services that I rely on as a person who is on centrelink.
@daniel you and I know you will never vote for us. the reason the liberal party is in exile across most of australia is because we have changed and it still does not appease you. Labor voters will never vote liberal because we will never be Labor.
@Daniel T
Peter Beattie failed to win Forde parachuted into the seat in 2013. Ironically it was Kevin Rudd alongside his cheif of staff Bruce Hawker who were behind it. Dumping the Labor canidate for Forde so they could install Beattie. They were heavily criticised after the election by Labor figures for doing it. Atleast Rudd makes some sense because he’s the former member for Griffith.
As Griffith is over quota it is likely to lose some voters in the forthcoming redistribution – and even more so should Queensland somehow get the 31st seat. The areas at the edges of Griffith are the Greens weakest so their margin is likely to increase. Should the 31 occur it will become a deep Green seat.
@Redistributed
Most would agree that Max would never be relegated to 3rd nor lose to Libs on a 2pp with them. The only risk is if he is on a 2pp against Labor. Given your redistribution (And Dutton being toxic in a place like this come 2025), Labor would also likely increase votes hence forcing a Green vs Labor 2pp matchup where Labor would likely win on 2022 figures. That said, it is safe to assume that Max would consolidate the “left” vote to some degree (See @Furtive Lawngnome).
Keep in mind that Labor was relegated to 3rd place in Federal Melbourne in 2016 – an election where Labor got a swing to them overall (Not 2013, where while Greens did bad, Labor did even worse). Also Balmain was won by the Greens in 2011 on a bad election for Labor, where they were relegated to 3rd place and elected the Greens on their preferences. Come 2015, it was a Green vs Labor matchup once again but Greens won nonetheless. (Admittedly, OPV).
@Redistributed, good points.
Grififth is over-quota whilst its neighbours, Moreton and Bonner, are hugely under-quota. Brisbane has the same scenario. The low-density, more suburban, less hipster areas will be removed, making Grifith greener electorally, even without the added QLD seat.
Worst case for the Greens is that Labor recovers its vote and LNP nosedives in 2025 the PV order is: GRN, ALP, LNP and Labor scores preferences, first from minor right parties, like One Nation (who generally put the Greens last), and then from LNP.
it’ll be interesting to see what areas are shed to moreton and bonner in the next redistribution. if areas such as holland park and mount gravatt east are shed into bonner then i believe it could be a key battleground seat in upcoming elections. i’ve also never understood why places such as manly, wynnum and lota in bonner vote liberal while suburbs that seem almost identical in lilley (brighton, shorncliffe, sandgate) vote reliably labor. if moreton gains electors from griffith this could increase the greens vote and make labor’s position in this seat a lot more perilous. however i think it’ll be a few election cycles until the greens are seriously competitive in moreton due to the socially conservative migrant vote in places such as kuraby, sunnybank, runcorn, acacia ridge etc.
@John, Regarding:
Labor may get some mileage here out of running an explicitly centre-right campaign, telling LNP voters to “Vote Labor to get rid of the Greens” and even preferencing Liberals over Greens on HTVs. But I don’t think that would work.
This would do some favours at least in keeping Labor from falling 3rd like they did here. Probably a bridge too far in places with Green incumbents though (due to Greens consolidating the “left” vote once an incumbent according to “Furtive Lawngnome. This becomes even more pronounced if Labor tries to go further to the right than 2022). The benefits of this strategy would mainly be in sandbagging Macnamara, Higgins and Richmond, as well as helping them in “traditional” seats.
It would however mean they are asking for a death sentence in a straight-up 2pp between Labor and Greens like Wills and Cooper. Even Grayndler is unsafe if they try this – Albo would essentially be throwing away all of what is currently the Albo-Parker/Shetty/Leong voters
Even if they try to remedy this by running a separate campaign in those seats, it may not be enough. These seats are:
1. among the most politically informed
2. are naturally more left-wing than Melbourne (Bandt’s seat).
That said, this won’t work very well in any seat with a Green incumbent would (See @Furtive Lawngnome). The benef
I fairly unscientifically tried removing the “East” booths (per the map in the article) from the 2022 3CP results which collectively were about 8,000 votes. They’re about 6.4% of Greens votes, 7.3% of Labor votes and 7.2% of LNP votes. Taking out all the Holland Park XYZ booths as well has the same outcome – Labor loses the most votes, LNP lose slightly less, Greens lose a bit less again.
So Griffith contracting a bit such that it loses its eastern and south-east boundary areas is pretty good for the incumbent. It firms up the 3CP and maybe even improves the 2CP.