Greenway – Australia 2022

I think 2019’s result represented somewhat of a demographic transition and I can see it being even more the case this time. Most Western Sydney seats have enoigh margin for their Labor MPs to hang on. Even Macquarie might he able to stay ALP due to the Blue Mountains firming up for Labor.

Greenway though will be a tough hold for Labor. Jaymes Diaz is a distant memory and I’m not sure where in this sest Labor will be stronger this time. 3% swing is very achievable.

By no means a certain Liberal gain – Michelle Rowland survived in 2013 after all – but this is one of the seats they could win off Labor to make up for their gains elsewhere.

By demographic transition above, I meant “political realignment”.

John
i agree that Rowland has a defensible margin. Therefore Greenway is a classic “Toss up”.
Personally i am far more impressed with her this term than previously. All indications are that she has done an excellent job in representation & personally too.
Id be interested if services are still a major issue in the new suburbs. Nth of M2.
Local sources indicate that there is a significant influx of new residents in the older suburbs south of the M2 ie Lalor Park Seven Hills maybe Toongabbie. This would cause more volatility. How many first time voters would there be ? The enrolment has increased north of 5000 alone.
a safe prediction would be for labor to hold but losing most of their margin, mainly on Rowland’s personal vote. Instinctively i’d sense that there is trouble here for Labor & they will lose this, narrowly, through impetus & momentum.

This was my electorate in 2019.

What might be quite striking to some is that The Ponds is in the 100th percentile on the index of socioeconomic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD) in NSW, scoring significantly higher than much of the North Shore and Eastern Suburbs. It’s quite a unique and paradoxical demographic – new suburbs, well-educated, very high incomes, young families, diverse (50% born overseas, 15% Hindu, 8% Muslim), quite far out from the city, and not a particularly prestigious area. Similar characteristics can be found in many other new suburbs, though The Ponds is one of the most extreme examples.

The two polling booths in The Ponds voted 56% and 52% Liberal 2PP, with both recording a *smaller* swing to the Liberals than the rest of Greenway. So overall, The Ponds voted around two percentage points more Liberal than the rest of NSW.

I would assume that it’s a similar demographic moving into the new developments in Schofields, Riverstone, Nirimba Fields, and Grantham Farm. If so, this will likely drag Labor’s standing down further, but is nowhere near fatal.

I often hear that new suburban areas are likely to be solidly Liberal voting, but the numbers do not show this. Here’s the 2PP margins from developing suburbs across Sydney at the last election:
• Marsden Park (Chifley): Liberal 53%
• Ropes Crossing (Chifley): Labor 56%
• The Ponds (Greenway): Liberal 52% and 56% (two polling booths)
• Glenmore Park (Lindsay): Liberal 55% to 60% (four polling booths)
• Gregory Hills (Macarthur): Labor 52%
• Leppington (Macarthur): Labor 52% (with a 13% swing *towards* Labor!)
• Oran Park (Macarthur): Labor 52%
• Bardia (Werriwa): Liberal 52%
• Carnes Hill (Werriwa): Labor 53%
• Edmondson Park (Werriwa): Labor 59%
• Middleton Grange (Werriwa): Liberal 55%

@winediamond

Absolutely, services are a major issue here. Though in ways that are perhaps more relevant at the state level. There are multiple schools that are massively over capacity and with demountables everywhere. Roads are not keeping up with the new population growth, there’s questions around when the metro will be extended to Schofields (and eventually to St Marys), and there’s been controversy over the (re)announcement of a new hospital around Rouse Hill. Again, all more relevant to state politics than federal politics.

Nicholas Weston
Agreed about relevance of services. However the govt is getting clouted over vaccination & that is a state responsibility too ……! I guess it is just the pointy end of “Big Australia”?. Or the end result ?

Your account of voting in new housing areas is very revealing. I wonder which direction they will take as they settle into their new homes ,& massive mortgages ?.
A friend is a teacher at The Ponds at a state school. Yje most common surname is Singh, & there were over 40 in 1 form.
Rowland has moved mountains in her personal journey, & deserves complete admiration on that score alone. If she has even accomplished a fraction of that politically by rights she ought to retain the seat. I’d like to see her take over Fowler, if things don’t turn out.

I lived in this electorate from 2012 to 2014, coincidentally, in The Ponds. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Rowland would lose this seat this time around. I expect the Liberals, pending the next redistribution to win it back one day, but not this election. Rowland is a quality MP in a difficult electorate.

Why was the size of this seat drastically reduced after the 2008/09 redistribution?

The pre-2007 redistribution abolished a rural seat and as a result Macquarie was pulled outside of Greater Sydney: it gained Lithgow plus Bathurst and ceded the Hawkesbury to Greenway. The pre-2010 redistribution abolished a suburban Sydney seat and the process reversed: Macquarie regained the Hawkesbury, letting Greenway return to its traditional form.

I predict in a decade or two much of the northern parts of Greenway which turn into a solid liberal area. Incomes in suburbs such as The Ponds/Kellyville Ridge are similar to the Hills District. It will follow a similar trend to Aston (Vic) as more homes become owned outright and the population starts to enter middle age. The Southern Part around Blacktown will remain Working Class and Labor leaning. The Liberal party needs to look at fielding a South Asian candidate in the future.

@Nimalan Sivakumar

Read my comments above.

Oops, pressed the button too early.

@Nimalan Sivakumar

Read my comment above about new suburban areas. This demographic change could tilt it towards the it Liberals, but history shows it is unlikely to make it all that safe.

About running a South Asian candidate in Greenway, see my last comment on the McMahon thread.

@ Nicholas Weston, Concur with your comments on the McMahon thread and about new new suburban areas being marginal. Currently suburbs such as The Ponds/Kellyville Ridge etc while being well educated and high income are still very much mortgage belt areas where there is a high proportion of the population being young families. In Melbourne, the suburbs of Point Cook/Williams Landing will be the equivalent. They currently vote Labor but only just. Families whilst having high income will also face issues such as mortgage stress/childcare rebates and other cost of living issues. However, over time as the population ages, property values increases and homes are being paid off, the amount of disposable income increases. The voters will be more concerned about issues such as negative gearing/superannuation etc. This explains why Aston is now the safest Liberal seat in Melbourne. Back in the 1980s/early 1990s Aston was the typical mortgage belt seat in Melbourne. Another example would be the seat of Cook. It was a marginal seat in the 1970s but solid Liberal now. The suburban parts of the electorate of Casey (Vic) show a simmilar trend. Agree with your comments on the McMahon thread on a South Asian candidate

This is my seat.

Everything points to a Labor hold, as stated above, mostly behind Michelle’s personal standing ( that and i couldn’t tell you if or WHO the liberal candidate is.

Throw in lockdowns + the feds botching everything they come into contact with.

BUT…

The spectre of 2019 hasn’t left my brain for a second.

Labor hold, The Liberals always get hyped about this one election after election and it just never eventuates. Perhaps when Rowland retires they will be in for a chance, but if the election is close nationwide they have no chance, You would need a 1996 to win this for the coalition because perhaps this seat isn’t very elastic.

Not much movement here I don’t see any long term trends either on the current boundaries, will probably stay an ALP marginal for at least a few more terms unless an ALP gov screws up badly.

I agree – on these boundaries Labor hold while Rowland is MP, unless we have a 1966-style Liberal landslide.

While I agree Labor is likely to hold in 2022, I disagree that there’s “no long term changes” here.

Apart from 2007, the boundaries here haven’t changed much. It used to be quite a safe Labor seat that was often held with double-digit margins. Even in the 1996 landslide, Labor held on. Now we see it as competitive even in reasonably close elections.

The Liberals would almost certainly have won it in 2013 if not for having a laughably dud candidate.

Agree Mark Mulcair, this part of Sydney is rapidly growing and has undergone massive demographic changes in the past decade or so, becoming more multicultural.

Agree, with comments above the the Northern half of electorate is high income similar to the Hills District and as these areas become settled and wealthy, there is a strong prospect of the Liberals doing better. The state seat of Riverstone is now more Liberal than the state as a whole.

This seat is a fascinating study in how State Trends don’t always follow Federal Trends and Vice-Versa. The top part of the seat (over-lapping Riverstone) is now fairly safe Liberal. The South-East part of the seat (Overlapping what will eventually be called Winston Hills) is marginal Liberal. The South-West part of the Seat (Overlapping Blacktown) is very solid Labor.
But the seat has managed to buck the trend, especially up around the Riverstone section, to support Michelle Rowland and I believe it is because Labor has got someone in the seat that fits perfectly. In particular, Rowland is from the NSW Right and is very much focused on services, which helps her clean up in the areas where the Liberal Party has been traditionally strong at a State Level. Indeed, she has performed exceptionally well in areas just to the North of the M7, an area that is becoming stronger for the Liberal Party (See Daniel, this is called a balanced analysis).
I think Rowland’s Personal vote is too big here. She will win this seat again but Labor needs her to stay here as long as possible because, when she goes, I think Greenway goes and it will almost be for good.

Submission from Phillip Ruddick to be agreed upon has the Liberal Party endorsing Pradeep Pathi as the Liberal Candidate for Greenway.

Rowland will win. There are 10,000 of her corflutes up all over the electorate and I have not seen one iota of Liberal presence. I only came to this website in an attempt to find out who the Lib candidate is. Don’t particularly have any excitement in voting ALP given the vagueness in details so far. UAP are loopy and Greens would tax everyone 105% if they could.

A few months ago this poll would have been hailed as evidence of Morrison’s brilliant ‘religious freedom’ strategy in a No on SSM electorate, but commentariat has memory of a goldfish. Either way it seems very implausible.

Tony the flowerman, I think that’s a bit of an unfair stab at the Greens. As far as I can tell from their website, they only seem to be focusing on taxing the very rich and corporations.

Realistically this should be a Liberal target for all the reasons mentioned above. Long term it should be a Liberal leaning (and improving) seat if they want to remain a relevant governing party in the long term.

This will be a poor election for the Liberals, but at a good election this should be winnable.

Even if they don’t win this time they should be aiming do as well as possible to keep it within reach and to build a base for their vote long term. Parties need to think long term about their messaging and their base voters, not just the immediate election cycle to being new seats into play.

The Liberals have not done this well since Howard.

Greenway straddles the “Latte Line”. The north has new housing that are different to the working class south. Sydneysiders will remember when we were all looking at vaccine rates, there was suburbs around Ku-Ring-gai and an “island” out west with high rates. That island is around Riverstone, Vineyard and Berkshire Park, the north of this electorate. Tax office figures put areas in the north on a par with Carlingford whilst in the south on a par with Liverpool.

• In 2019 when Australia and NSW swung 1% to the coalition, Greenway swung to the Coalition by 2.8%. Labor won this seat by about 5,500 votes, a margin of 3.5%.
• I would summarise what happened in Greenway in 2019 as;
1. Prepoll numbers almost doubled and the TPP prepoll shifted by 6% to the coalition
2. Most polling places across all postcodes had a 10% drop in votes on the day and swung to the coalition by 2-3%
3. Postcode 2765 (Riverstone/Vineyard) increased on-the-day voting by 6% and swung to the Coalition by 5%
• In the south, Seven Hills voting is 60/% Labor and in the north Riverstone 55% to coalition indicating new arrivals are probably voting 60% coalition.
• Between the 2019 election and December 2021, the AEC reports 8,500 net increase in persons on the electoral roll. This will probably be 10-11,000 by the time rolls close.
• The ABS estimates change in population each financial year for “Statistical Areas Level 2”. For 2019-2021, SA2 changes are Lalor park -420, Blacktown East -341, Glenwood -261 and Riverstone +16,206. These figures when applied to the change in persons on the roll suggests net Labor loses of 200 votes in the south and Coalition net gain 2,500 in the north.
• 2016 Census ancestry for Greenway = 35% anglo/Australian, 15% Indian, 5% Chinese and 5% Filipino. Suggesting 18,000 voters of Indian ancestry.
• The Coalition candidate is of Indian ancestry. How many votes that influences is anyone’s guess.

In summary, it is an electorate that is trending towards conservative across all postcodes and has a big increase in population in the northern/ more conservative voting suburbs and has a coalition candidate from the largest minority group. Labor is probably still a winner but with the TAB offering 6-to-1 for Coalition it might be a good value bet.

I think one of the major issues at 2019 was the fact the Liberal was called GREEN, which made the ballot confusing for some, despite that the seat over-indexed to the libs

Assuming the national swing is towards labor this time, I’d expect them to hang on, but by no means a safe seat anymore, continual demographic changes are driving a north/south divide

Tony the flowerman

I’ve seen a grand total of ONE corflute up the northern end for Rowland.
That was on a side street too.

Ranked 11th for ” at least 30% of a households salary goes to mortgage payments ” in Greenway – that MAY just save Michelles bacon but i’m not confident.

Everyone has slept on this electorate.

Interested to know how UAP can damage chances for liberal or Labor winning?

In my opinion, preferences will play a key role in the outcome..

Any thoughts on increase of 9k votes in Northern area could swing the election towards liberal?

I am disappointed in the approach to this seat It is supposed to be marginal however the dearth of signage around the electorate from both the major parties is appalling.
The Liberals put their candidate in the field after the election was called. They are running against an incumbent who suffered a 3.5% swing against her in 2019. This seat is for the asking but the Liberals have given the voters Jamie Diaz look up that interview. Then Yvonne Keene (given time would have won) and Tony Green ( both last minute appointments. The same for Pradeep Pathi. An old dog party does not learn new tricks.
Do they not want to win this electorate?
As for Labor I have only seen a couple of supporters sitting in the sun at the shopping centre not even bothering to hand out how to vote cards.
I would not know there was an election if not for the so called independent Bosi driving his truck around and putting up posters.

On Riccardo Bosi (Greenway) and Craig Cole (Casey) – Australia One’s most famous Candidates – with threats to do acts of terror (in their own words) https://youtu.be/JS4b5NgyMZ0?t=480

Easy win for Labor. Michelle Rowland stood out this time communicating local problems like ED at proposed Rouse Hill Hospital. Mobile tower at The Ponds. Didn’t see any PR from Liberal candidate. I’m a local at The Ponds and the emotion here is for Michelle. She talked about childcare subsidies and inflation which matters for young families living here.

Well there you go lol

Can’t ward to see the numbers breakdown

Commented on this on the Mitchell page but the swings here and in Mitchell are unexpectedly big. What makes it stranger is that it seems relatively isolated to these two among the list of outer-suburban seats. Have grown up in these areas and I can’t really piece together why they would be uniquely big. Most other seats in high growth corridors of Sydney and Melbourne, which I thought could be impacted by interest rates, are showing smaller swings to Labor or even to the Liberals.

Perhaps the newer residents happened to be particularly Labor-leaning or Labor-swinging (lots of Indian-Australians?) or maybe it’s because of the candidates (Michelle Rowland as a good influence on swing, and Alex Hawke a negative one). Neither feels like a very satisfying explanation at this stage.

Adda, the growth areas of Mitchell and Greenway are more affluent and educated than for example Cragieburn or Wallan in Victoria. Also some of the biggest swings in Mitchell were around more established Caste Hill where there is a large Chinese Australian community reminds of Menzies.

I know a very good reason why Mitchell at least swung to Labor: The Liberal rank and file utterly despise Alex Hawke. I think you’ll find previously loyal volunteers would have just flat out refused to campaign for him.

I don’t know about Greenway. Was their candidate another parachute trooper?

Was something going on in NW Sydney – big swings in Mitchell – particularly on western side – but also in Greenway and the Hawkesbury parts of Macquarie.

But further round the compass – in Chifley no swing and a swing to the Libs in Lindsay.

Maybe the new metro rail line is bringing in a different kind of demographic into the seats

I also live in Mitchell and previously lived in Greenway, and likewise I am perplexed as to why the swings here were so large.

Furtive Lawngnome

Yes, Pradeep pathi was announced pretty much the day after the high court challenge over preselections failed.

Little bird told me he had to pay the party 20k for the role too.
He def ” won ” the corflute war around my area but the only time i saw him on the tv was on ” 4 corners ” the other night which showed him sitting front row during morrisons televised launch.

Absolutely mind-boggling approach to this seat from the libs imo

wow so many sheeple who have NO IDEA what the fork is really going on. Arjay Martin mentions Bosi in a seemingly negative light… I don’t like his religious side but given what is going on in the REAL WORLD he is one of many heroes out there banging his drum to try and wake you up. People, you have to start waking up, you have to stop watching BS MSM and start researching the TRUTH. Are we really that stupid as a nation? This is tragic. RIP to all of us and we freaking deserve it if we are not going to wake up! 90% of us are marked for extermination. 50% by next year as announced during the WEF between AnalSwabb and FrogNeckPfizer. Did you know that the head of the WHO is a criminal? None of these people are good, they are out to control every aspect of our lives but that is the best part of the plan. The truth is sickening, so much so that people cannot fathom its truth. Because we are not sick – they are. You have to start putting on your truth glasses, you have to imagine the bad that people can do and have been doing right under our noses. We have been brainwashed. RESEARCH RESEARCH RESEARCH stop filtering through propaganda. Come on!!!!

That……..was definitely something.

Why has this seat never been a really serious target for the Liberals (well, at least it wasn’t in 2022)?

The state seats of Riverstone and Winston Hills which both overlap at least partially with Greenway (I’m pretty sure Riverstone is entirely in Greenway) and they’re usually some of the most targeted seats in NSW. The Liberals held both of those from 2011 to 2023 when they marginally lost Riverstone but marginally retained Winston Hills (as expected).

Riverstone is one of the highest-priority target seats for Labor and the Liberals in Sydney and it has some Liberal-friendly areas around Kellyville Ridge, Stanhope Gardens and The Ponds. All of those are in Greenway and at the federal election most of those voted Labor in 2022 and Liberal in 2019.

The swing in 2022 was huge. It’s now a safe seat but the state seats overlapping with it are either marginal Labor or marginal Liberal.

For example:

Labor TPP (2022):
Kellyville Ridge: 55.5%
Quakers Hill East: 63.0%
Quakers Hill North: 61.8%
Quakers Hill West: 61.3%
Riverstone: 58.1%
Riverstone East: 61.0%
Schofields: 62.0%
Stanhope Gardens: 61.1%
Stanhope Gardens North: 56.5%
The Ponds: 60.0%
The Ponds North: 60.3%
The Ponds West: 60.5%

Labor TPP (2023):
Kellyville Ridge: 53.1%
Quakers Hill East: 55.0%
Quakers Hill: 64.1%
Quakers Hill: 55.7%
Riverstone: 58.4%
Schofields: 57.0%
Stanhope Gardens: 45.0%
Stanhope Gardens: 47.6%
The Ponds: 53.9%
The Ponds: 50.1%

Note that the duplicated polling places are because some suburbs had two polling places. The booths were:

* Kellyville Ridge PS
* Quakers Hill East PS
* Quakers Hill HS
* Quakers Hill PS
* Riverstone HS
* Schofields PS
* Stanhope Anglican School
* Stanhope Gardens Leisure Centre
* The Ponds Community Hub
* The Ponds HS

Notes:
* HS: High School
* PS: Public School

But we can’t forget EVCs (early voting centres) either:

Labor TPP (2023):
Quakers Hill: 57.9%
Riverstone: 54.1%
Stanhope Gardens: 51.2%
The Ponds: 49.8%
TOTAL: 52.0%

In terms of the Federal Sphere, the Liberal Party cooked themselves in Greenway with Jaymes Diaz back in 2013. The Liberal Party destroyed the good-will at a Federal Level with him and it has been a shit-fight ever since.

The best candidate that they have had for the seat would have been Yvonne Keane, but they ran her against an already-entrenched Michelle Rowland during 2016, which Turnbull nearly cooked himself on

Hawkeye, surprisingly Diaz first ran in 2010 when he came within 1% of winning the seat. I’m not sure why he lost support when seeking a rematch for 2013, but it could have been because he shifted his views more to the hardcore ‘right’ or he was engaged with branch stacking which cost him support.

@Yoh An

Diaz had a disastrous campaign in 2013. He became a meme thanks to this infamous interview:

@Yoh An Have a look at Jaymes Diaz 6 point plan on the internet and it will explain it all. He was an absolutely useless deer-in-the-headlights when questioned about the policies associated and just ignored the reporter. Basically he pretty much handed the seat back to Michelle Rowland who was on track to lose it badly.