ALP 16.3% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Anthony Albanese, since 1996.
Geography
Inner West of Sydney. Grayndler covers most of the Inner West council area and a small part of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. Main suburbs include Annandale, Balmain, Rozelle, Leichhardt, Petersham, Lilyfield, Sydenham, Hurlstone Park, Summer Hill and Haberfield, and parts of Ashfield, Dulwich Hill, Marrickville, Newtown.
History
Grayndler was created in the 1949 redistribution, and has always been held by the ALP. The seat was first won by Fred Daly, who had previously held the nearby seat of Martin since 1943. Daly was a highly popular MP and served as a minister in the Whitlam government before his retirement in 1975.
The seat was won by Tony Whitlam at the election following his father’s dismissal as Prime Minister in 1975, but he was replaced by Frank Stewart at the 1977 election following the abolition of Stewart’s former seat of Lang. Stewart had previously served as a minister in the Whitlam government, and had been in Parliament since 1953. Stewart died in 1979, and the following by-election was won by the Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party, Leo McLeay.
McLeay held the seat until the 1993 election, serving as Speaker from 1989 until 1993. At the 1993 election he was forced to move to the neighbouring seat of Watson in order to free up Grayndler for federal minister Jeannette McHugh, whose seat of Phillip had been abolished.
McLeay held Watson until 2004, and McHugh retired at the 1996 election, when the seat was won by another Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party, Anthony Albanese, after Albanese had arranged McHugh’s move to Grayndler in 1993.
Anthony Albanese has been re-elected eight times. He served as a senior minister in the last Labor government, including a brief term as Deputy Prime Minister in 2013, and then served as a senior shadow minister until he become Labor leader after the 2019 election.
Assessment
On paper, Grayndler is one of Labor’s safest seats. The Greens do a lot better in this area at the state and local level, and this seat would be much more competitive if the Greens could convert those votes at a federal level. It’s unlikely that will happen as long as Albanese holds the seat, but there’s potential for this seat to change dramatically in his absence.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Albanese | Labor | 48,728 | 50.9 | +4.8 |
| Jim Casey | Greens | 21,607 | 22.6 | +0.3 |
| Derek Henderson | Liberal | 20,846 | 21.8 | -1.6 |
| Majella Morello | Science Party | 2,613 | 2.7 | +1.4 |
| Paris King-Orsborn | United Australia Party | 1,155 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Gui Dong Cao | Christian Democratic Party | 865 | 0.9 | -0.3 |
| Informal | 4,258 | 4.3 | -2.5 |
2019 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Albanese | Labor | 63,529 | 66.3 | +0.5 |
| Jim Casey | Greens | 32,285 | 33.7 | -0.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Albanese | Labor | 70,739 | 73.8 | +1.5 |
| Derek Henderson | Liberal | 25,075 | 26.2 | -1.5 |
Booths have been divided into five parts based on the former local government areas. Polling places in the former Leichhardt council area have been split into “Leichhardt” and “Balmain”. Those booths in the former Ashfield council area have been grouped as “Ashfield”, and those in the former Marrickville council area have been split into “Marrickville” and “Petersham”.
The ALP won sizeable majorities of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all five areas, ranging from 61.6% in Petersham to 69.6% in Ashfield.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 18.2% in Balmain to 29.6% in Petersham.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.8% in Petersham and Marrickville to 29.4% in Balmain. The Greens outpolled the Liberal Party in Marrickville, Leichhardt and Petersham, while the Liberal Party outpolled the Greens in Balmain and Ashfield.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Marrickville | 24.1 | 14.6 | 67.2 | 13,621 | 13.9 |
| Leichhardt | 22.3 | 21.5 | 66.1 | 12,923 | 13.2 |
| Petersham | 29.6 | 13.8 | 61.6 | 11,951 | 12.2 |
| Balmain | 18.2 | 29.4 | 68.5 | 10,211 | 10.4 |
| Ashfield | 19.3 | 24.7 | 69.6 | 10,127 | 10.3 |
| Pre-poll | 20.9 | 23.5 | 67.9 | 27,457 | 28.0 |
| Other votes | 24.8 | 23.9 | 61.4 | 11,656 | 11.9 |
Election results in Grayndler at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Even if there is a Labor collapse worse than 1996, Grayndler still should be held by Albanese.
However if Albanese resigns from Parliament anytime soon (not at an election, for a by-election) than this seat becomes a winnable Greens seat.
Assuming they nominate a candidate with strong Inner West-style messaging.
But Labor will retain this seat with Albanese as the Member and with a strong flow of Liberal preferences.
I could see Albanese losing Grayndler if he became PM and then disappointed the Left. Then you might get a scenario like Bennelong during the 2000s, with a laundry list of independents or minor parties all running to protest Albo and then preferencing against him.
Otherwise agree that he’s safe here.
Greens aren’t going to target Grayndler, but the Liberals might preference Greens to scare Albo into working his own seat instead of touring the country. I think there will be a swing from Labor to Greens in the Labor vs Green inner city seats in other cities, but Grayndler is still a bridge too far and ALP/GRN swinging voters probably won’t want to vote against the person they want to become PM.
Grayndler and Sydney are still safe for the ALP while Albo and Tanya P are still running. Once they decide to go then all bets are off and the Greens in a with a real chance – especially Grayndler.
If the Libs want to make merry they should preference against the sitting member – against the ALP in Grayndler, Sydney, Wills, Cooper -and against Greens in Melbourne. Would tie down resources that can’t be spent / allocated elsewhere.
The Greens can take seats of ALP sitting members, when circumstances are in the Greens` favour. With Albanese as ALP PM (which is looking increasingly likely), he won`t be the hypothetical more progressive alternative within the ALP, he will be the face of many decisions that disappoint the more progressive voters who choose between the ALP and Greens and thus be at an increased risk of defeat (unless he moves seats).
Grayndler Will need approx 15000 voters from Barton, & Watson by the next redistribution. This means it moves at least to the Cooks River, & substantially west into Watson. Labor will be under no threat from then on. Even in a by election.
Redistributed
The above means that the Greens have one chance to take Grayndler & that is now & it’s completely improbable. Lib Preferences are irrelevant. The Greens are the “NO” party, they need a positive agenda, & policies, & that will never happen.
Tom the first and best
“With Albanese as ALP PM (which is looking increasingly likely)” Really!?. You & which other individual believe this !? Albo is going nowhere in every respect. He will be in parliament for life.
winediamond
I thoroughly disagree that the Greens are the “NO party” when they very clearly have a positive and thorough set of progressive agendas and policies. Meanwhile, Labor are stuck in between a rock and a hard place on climate change, and their support of new gas and coal means their margin will decrease. Albo ain’t no leftie anymore.
Ryan Spencer
Have you ever heard of Oxymoron ?. Contradiction in terms ?. “Progressive” maybe within the confines of ideology . Positive ? NO. Too silly for words
“Meanwhile, Labor are stuck in between a rock and a hard place on climate change, and their support of new gas and coal means their margin will decrease. ” Wow , clearly I’m completely misinformed .
I know who could defeat Albanese, although she won’t run as she would have to give up the mayoralty. Clover Moore could give Albanese a huge run for his money here.
I would say an ALP leadership change puts Albanese at severe risk from the Greens. The idea that he’s a progressive figure within the ALP has been well and truly debunked by the party’s rightward shift under his leadership. Once he’s a “has been”, his career is over.
If he becomes PM, what would need to happen is there would need to be a highly credible deputy leader that Labor/Green swing voters would like more than Albanese, and enough confidence around the idea that by booting Albanese out they can get an even better Labor PM (especially if Green balance of power is in play). Marles, who’s one of the most right wing MPs Labor has, will protect against that narrative.
On the Greens part however they don’t seem to be able to preselect a candidate here that can appeal to a wide enough range of people to win a majority after preferences (even in Grayndler). The NSW Greens have plenty of people in their ranks who can keep the volunteer base happy while having the political skills to win over voters (thinking Jenny Leong, Mehreen Faruqi). Here they seem to preselect confrontational (and proud of it) hard leftists – the SAlt kind who can make a good idea seem like a bad idea through the way they sell it alone.
EXCERPTS FROM TODAYS OZ by Troy Bramston (such a right wing journo !!!!!!!)
“I am ambitious to change the country for the better, but I want to ensure we bring the country with us,” Albanese argues. “I have been able to work with unions and business. I’m a proud unionist but I also want to work with employers. I’m concerned with the creation of wealth, not just its distribution.”
He was often on the losing side of totemic policy debates during the Hawke-Keating years on university fees, tariff reductions, uranium exports and privatisation. In Young Labor, he supported wealth taxes and death duties. That was a different Albanese, though, who now positions himself as a moderate leader in the Hawke-Keating tradition.
“Tom Uren used to say to me: ‘You’ve got to learn something new and grow as a person every day’,” Albanese recalls. “I still learn something new every day and I hope I’m continuing to grow as a person every day. I am much more respectful of differences of view than when I was 21. But I’m no less passionate than I was then and I’m quite prepared to engage in debate with people at any time.”
There is another side to Albanese: a loyal friend, devoted father, community champion, party stalwart, a man who has committed his life to public service and is often overly emotional and excessively sentimental. I’ve seen tears well in his eyes more times than I can remember. He is, I put to him, a hard man with a soft heart.
“That is a fair assessment,” he acknowledges. “I have a real sense of the responsibility, a weight on my shoulders, to take us to victory. It is a mountain to climb, and it requires discipline and focus. I can be very emotional – more so than you would know – because I care about people, I’m quite passionate about my beliefs and I often show that. But that doesn’t mean I am not capable of a steely resolve, and I can’t be intimidated.”
Today, Albanese’s priority is developing a “more strategic” policy agenda. Labor is not proposing a revolution, but he rejects the suggestion the party is risk-averse or lacking boldness. He says Labor’s program will blend ambition with practicality and be communicated as a narrative about where Labor wants to take the nation and why.
Asked for his vision for Australia in a sentence, Albanese offers: “My vision for Australia is one where no one is left behind, but no one is held back from opportunity.” Asked what he would like to be remembered for as prime minister, he nominates “an Australia that makes things”, “takes advantage of our position in the fastest-growing region of the world” and is a “renewable energy superpower”.
“That we were constructive in 2020 has put us in a position to be more critical of Morrison in 2021. The strategic task for us now is to reinforce that but also to put in place and advocate for reimagining a stronger Australia. If we can form government next year, it will be a good time to shape the country going forward, and that is my ambition.”
Anthony Albanese, could end up being in serious trouble from the Greens if his electorate feel that he is bending to right. If the Liberal party switch there presences to the Greens in these inner city seats Labor could have a lot of trouble on the night.
It would be more logically if Kenneally primary challenged wither Burney,Albanese or Plibersek as her former seat of Heffron contained parts of those electorates.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/grayndler2022/comment-page-1#comment-753600
The 2016 merger of the City of Botany Bay and City of Rockdale into Bayside Council has created the possibility of Kingsford Smith instead of Grayndler taking Barton voters to replace voters moving into Wentworth. So Grayndler may not become a safe ALP seat.
The merger of Botany Bay and Rockdale
The merger of Botany Bay and Rockdale was preposterous and should not be dignified in electoral boundary changes.
Agree Nicholas, Rockdale is clearly part of the St Georges District (Southern Sydney) and Botany Bay is part of the Eastern Suburbs even if it is not as affluent as other Eastern Suburbs.
https://cityhubsydney.com.au/2021/12/new-indigenous-aboriginal-party-of-australia-announce-candidate-for-grayndler/
Seems the Indigenous-Aboriginal Party is getting quite serious, fielding more candidates. Find it interesting the seats they’re got lined up so far.. Page, Robertson and now Grayndler. Will see if they just stay NSW based (they’re looking at state registration) and how many seats they end up running in. Thought regional/rural seats would be conducive, especially New England.
Highly unlikely to get their deposit back and will only take primary votes away from the ALP and the Greens.
With Andrews, Snowdown and Fitzgibbon soon to be out of Parliament, I believe Albo is set to become Father of the House – and maybe even PM as well! The only comprable example I can think of is Henry Campbell-Bannerman in the UK.
Was anyone elected before 1996 in the House?
Katter will be Father of the House not Albo; Entsch also has a claim after Katter, as he was elected in 96 but he missed a term between 07-10
Albansese is in no danger of losing this seat to the greens. Maybe if he decides to retire after 3 more terms it would be a different contest
Ah of course, how could I forget Mr Katter!
So the Father of the House in 2022 will have entered parliament in 1993. In 2016, it was 1973. Ruddock hang around for a very long time.
There is also Russell Broadbent but I’m not sure if he is re-contesting.
He got first elected in 1990 but has been in and out of parliament at varying stages, and held 3 different seats.
So he’s elected before anyone else there but has not had a continuous run.
The only reason Ruddock stayed as long as he did was because Leeser hadn’t got his numbers in order yet. Libs wanted to move him out about 10 years before he did
Yesterday the govt opened an offensive against Albanese. This ought to be seen as the last desperate “roll of the dice”. Going negative & personal is hardly a demonstration of strength ! Albanese’s record on tax is long, & extensive, & only very recently moderated.
There were 4 major opinion pieces in the OZ today, including the Editorial. These extensively documented many previous policy positions & direct quotes.Most particularly, on inheritance, & death taxes, cut on the family home etc. Of course there is no counterbalance, because Albanese has never really taken much of a new position on anything, nor formerly disowned his past ones !
I posted this in the OZ today
Its very simple. If Albo wants to be PM he has to give a credible, & believable explanation , as to HOW & WHY his views have evolved. If he goes, shallow, flippant, fake, & vague, like he usually does (under pressure). Then we will all know the truth. The charade will be exposed. That In reality, he is just saying the things he thinks will make him PM.
Will our media do their jobs, which is to hold a wanna be PM accountable (for ALL of his long term positions, & views) ?
end of story.
If Australians want to vote such deception, posturing, & disingenuousness we deserve everything coming at us
It’d be nice if the media did their jobs and held our *current* pm accountable, but I’m not holding my breath. The Oz is just glorified pro-government propaganda, rehashing government talking points and engaging in attack campaigns on the opposition like Pravda.
Some Guy, I believe some media outlets (ABC especially but also some minor left leaning outlets like Guardian) do a good job of holding PM Morrison accountable for his actions. Agree on your point that the Australian is perhaps too far right wing, like all News Corp publications and that is why some conservative leaning folk (like Winediamond) may be misguided by the true intention of left leaning policies which is to ultimately support those less advantaged than us, not demonise them or make them feel left out.
Yoh An
Why would you assume that the intentions of those not on the left, are any different WRT social Justice ? Or the disadvantaged. In point of fact i have a high level disabled daughter.
My sympathies certainly aren’t. In fact i find the notion, & pretence of greater compassion, care, & concern to be the exclusive domain of the left, to be incredibly offensive & just plain wrong. In point of fact i think my (written) record clearly shows a visceral hatred of all forms of injustice. Or perhaps others have some confusion about this ?
I also find being (personally) labeled, or worse judged as “Conservative” not just offensive, but dismissive, & just plain insulting. I might be economically dry, however i’m certain that no one who knows me would describe me as “conservative”!!
I WOULD STRONGLY REMIND YOU THAT “The greatest evils are committed by Men with good intentions”. And “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”!. I couldn’t be less interested in “intentions”. What concerns me is actions, causes, & effects, & the responsibility taken for them OR NOT !.
Here is challenge for you & anyone else :: Take the bloody “Political Compass Test” & see where you end up. You might be in for a surprise. btw I am as close to the CENTRE as anyone could get.
Some guy
your comment was just idiotic judgements. If you think that the media haven’t given it to the pm for years you must have been asleep. Peddle that Murdoch conspiracist baloney if you like, but you just look, & sound like a twit.
comparing the OZ to Prevada is ridiculous.
I don’t think this ‘revelation’ is going to change anyone’s mind at all frankly. Not so much a story as desperate oppo research.
Honestly I doubt right wingers have much to be worried about with Albo. If he wins he’ll be a lot less Gough Whitlam and more Joe Biden.
I have taken the political compass test and I am considered fairly left leaning, fitting somewhere in between Labor and the Greens.
I do agree with your point Winediamond that Albanese is kidding himself if he can just ‘pretend’ to support policies that he and Labor do not fully support deep down. I personally believe Labor are ‘worse’ than the Coalition as at least some Liberal leaders like Tony Abbott and John Howard made some attempt to acknowledge when they were wrong or tried to step too far (such as industrial relations laws, ABC funding etc). Labor on the other hand didn’t really acknowledge when they were wrong or overstepped with things like the carbon or mining taxes.
Agree with you Furtive that Albo as PM will be more of a centrist/centre-right leader in the mould of Joe Biden, Tony Blair or Emmanuel Macron
Furtive Lawngnome
Wow what a choice ! The chaotic,”creative destruction” of Gough, or the atrophied paralysis of Biden. Just speculating but i think the “worry might be a little more widespread than you predict !
I agree with your comparison though.
Yoh An
So you are a “Gandhi” (left libertarian). Not really surprised. Well your insight has always impressed me. I didn’t think i was making a point that you refer to. My point is that there is an open question into what Albo believes, or if its all just transactional, or pretty nebulous, even non existent . I honestly have no idea, because when he’s asked he says glib stuff like “Everyone know what i stand for” !!. But do we ? The incuriosity of the left is giving Labor a free pass.
Your point on Labor’s lack of awareness of their flaws is well made. In truth Labor are stuck in 2013, because they refuse to acknowledge any mistakes. Consequently they will pick up where they left off. They certainly will reintroduce the carbon, & mining taxes -by stealth. The Carbon Emissions Reduction Scheme. By C Bowen. (see McMahon Thread) !!.
Sorry but i don’t think Albo will be like anything at all. Just the nebbish that he is.
cheers wd
Replying to LJ Davidsons old thread – Warren entch can’t become father of the house because the title is based on longest continuous service. Warren snowdon who entered parliament earlier pre 1990 wasn’t given the title because he lost in 1996 and his unbroken service therefore started in 1998 only.
Same would be true for russell broadbent, his unbroken service started 2004, not 1990 since he also lost re-election.
Is there room for a swing that could leave Albo vulnerable to Liberal ratf**king? Albo’s constant compromises/shift right has to hurt at least amongst a certain kind of Labor/left voter…
Chaisa – Albanese got more than 50% on primary vote in 2019, and got a substantial swing to him – and now Albanese is leader. Barring some major errors, new leaders for the majors will generally get a swing to them.
For Albanese to lose, it would be necessary for there to be a substantial swing against him to get him below at least 45%, and then nearly all Liberals would have to preference Greens over Labor in the seat, which I just can’t see happening. Considering even the Science Party couldn’t get more than 70% preference flows to Greens, and more than 60% of Liberal preferences flowed to Labor, I can’t see a scenario that gets the Greens over the line at this election.
When Albanese retires (or if he loses the election and ceases to be leader), the Greens have a major shot at taking Grayndler in the future. But Albanese will win his seat.
Labor workers out in force at Balmain Woolies today! Almost as if they’re worried about hanging on to this seat, haha 😉
I’ve only seen Labor material in the letterbox so far, and Labor posters, plus one solitary poster for the Fusion candidate. I find it interesting that the Labor material in the letterbox is heavily biographical, does their research suggest that Anthony Albanese is relatively unknown? I suppose this end of the electorate has only been in Grayndler since 2016.
Update, one week on, some Greens posters also starting to make an appearance. And a Jane Caro / Reason leaflet in the letterbox! Also, lots of ALP workers staking out the Orange Grove markets this morning.
Has the Liberal HTV come out in Grayndler? They’re probably worried that some Liberal voters may decide to preference the Greens ahead of Albanese. A lot of the progressive voters in Grayndler might also be annoyed that Labor under Albanese is almost indistinguishable from the Libs in terms of policy and may want to send a message to him. Would be very embarrassing for them if they win the election but Albanese loses his seat. That being said, it’s almost 100% certain that Albanese will retain.
Liberals put Albanese over Greens on their HTVs so he’s extremely safe this election.
Labor might lose this after Albanese leaves politics, or if he switches seats, or if his Labor government is offensively bad for Green policies. But Greens haven’t targeted Grayndler since 2016.
Bit risky with a fortnight still to go, but just for fun, here’s my predictions. Obviously Albo to hold this seat, but for a challenge, here’s my guess for the primary votes:
Labor 52
Greens 21
Liberal 19
Fusion 2-3
AJP 2-3
UAP 2
Independent 0-1
One Nation 0-1
Albo definitely >50%, maybe even up to 53-55. Greens primary vote possibly less: if more voters opt for AJP and Fusion, it’s possible the Libs primary vote could be higher than the Greens, but I suspect it won’t be. And even if it is I tip Greens will overtake Libs on preferences.
GNav … Given the the LNP preference Labor against Greens, Albo looking at 70% 2PP on your figures.
Peter … yes, I neglected to add in TCP! Let’s say 72 – 28 (ALP / GNS)
I voted at St John’s Church in Birchgrove this morning, and also walked past the two Rozelle booths this afternoon. What did they all have in common? Only staffed by Labor and Greens workers, and only Labor and Greens posters and bunting. Two horse race here, not a Lib to be seen. Interesting because all the previous campaigns where Ben Zhang has been a candidate (Lib or Ind) have featured lots of last-minute posters and workers on booths around here. I wonder where they have all gone today?
I did a walk through the seat today, about 5 booths between Leichhardt, Petersham & Stanmore
Each had 2-3 Labor & 1-2 Green Volunteers at each entrance.
There where 2 Liberal volunteers at the Leichhardt Town Hall, MIA everywhere else.
There was a dude handing out UAP fliers at a prepoll in Leichhardt a few weeks ago, wasnt there today though.
Over the Iron Cove bridge to Drummoyne for Reid duties be a fair bet, GNav. (What time you were there, though – Benji’s gang can take three or four hours to get rolling on election days…😁)
I’m amused by the way the current “Ordinary” vs “Postal” counts are almost perfect mirror images of each other, for the Greens and Liberals: Greens at 22.45 Ordinary, 15.4 Postal; Liberals 14.88 Ordinary, 22.6 Postal. Probably a neat illustration of the differences between the typical Greens voter here, and the typical Liberal voter! (And the party approach to Postal votes) (and Jack, yes, I suspected they were all in Reid, not that it helped…)
Well then, let’s compare my 8 May predictions with the current results, now that the seat is declared. I’m pretty happy with these… I tipped 52 for Albo, but suggested it could go to 53-55, and he is currently on 53.69. Greens my prediction 21, currently 22.02 so one under. Liberals my biggest error, I thought they would get to 19, currently (after no campaign) 15.69. My guesses for Fusion and AJP were both well out, based on state election I thought they could each get to 2-3, but currently both on one. I picked 2 for UAP (currently 2.22) so spot on, my guess for one nation (0-1) was a touch less than current (1.53) while the Independent (currently 2.08) performed ahead of my guess (0-1). My TPP was well out, though, I need to work on that… I guessed 72-28 ALP but currently 67-33.
So the Labor/Liberal 2PP was calculated for this seat….and we got 78.85/21.15.
When was the last time we saw a 2PP be so lopsided?