Goldstein – Australia 2022

I believe Frydenberg has more of a chance of losing his seat. The demographics of Kooyong are quite different to Goldstein. There is a Chinese community in Kooyong that are fed up with Sinophobic racism. There is also an Indian community in Hawthorn. The racism fostered by the LNP doesn’t appeal to these communities.

Kew, and Hawthorn are far more Catholic than they are Protestant. Although they are affluent areas, unlike Brighton, Sandringham, and Beaumaris/ Black Rock, they are not areas that support sticking with the Monarchy. In the republic referendum Kooyong voted overwhelmingly for a republic, whereas Goldstein voted for a monarchy.

The Liberal Party are really on the nose in Hawthorn, hence Labor picked this state seat up in the last state election. In the state election prior to the last, there was a huge swing to Labor in Hawthorn.

I think Goldstein is probably more likely to fall for a few reasons:

– Disgruntled moderate Liberal voters in Kooyong would probably be a little more hesitant to vote out the most likely next leader of the party. They would be torn between not wanting to support a Morrison government but also not wanting to hand the party over to Peter Dutton afterwards. I think there would be a cohort whose ideal outcome is that Morrison loses and Frydenburg becomes leader.

– Frydenburg’s campaign seems to have been better, whereas Tim Wilson’s has been a trainwreck where he has mostly acted like a child.

– While Dr Monique Ryan is an excellent candidate too, I think Zoe Daniel is even better. Her campaign has been excellent and she’s a more passionate, articulate speaker. She has also done better in articulating policy positions outside the big 3 issues of the teals, has distanced herself from Labor better, and on each issue seems to be pretty consistent with what Goldstein Liberal voters would generally support.

– The Liberal Party themselves have put a lot of effort – with national media exposure assisting them to get their scary messages across – into trying to save Josh. Tim Wilson, while he’s no doubt had a lot of resources diverted to him (probably from Macnamara & Higgins), doesn’t seem to have had that same level of national backing to save him.

I think Kooyong will be a legitimate 50/50 affair, no result on the night and could go either way. I think Zoe Daniel will win Goldstein with at least a 2% margin.

@ Kaniel Outis Relying primarily on religious and racial demographics to simplify electoral predictions and/or results isn’t really commonplace in Australia as it can’t come close to telling the full picture and isn’t representative of voting blocs found here.

Bear in mind as well that the Republic Referendum was nearly a quarter of a century ago and the result was in part influenced by the Republican inability to agree on the best system of government going forward, hence some simply didn’t vote and hoped for another referendum in the future with their preferred system offered instead. That aside anyway, the borders of Kooyong have changed since that time and the political dynamic has shifted significantly as well. It was once an ultra safe Liberal seat and even the idea that it could be in play would be ridiculed. But times change and so do the things that matter most to the electors.

I personally think they will both fall to the independent challengers but I suppose we will see in three days.

A friend in Goldstein who I spoke to not long ago sent me pictures of what might be termed ‘shit sheets’ being plastered over electricity poles all over the electorate. Without restating the contents on a family-friendly website like Tally Room, its a very simple poster referring to the parliamentary prayer room rumours. I don’t know who is behind it and I’m sure the Daniel campaign would disavow it, but it seems like there’s an effective whispering campaign going on in Goldstein that will only undermine the Wilson campaign.

I expect Daniel to win Goldstein. But I think Katie Allen might surprise us all in Higgins, and with the amount of money Josh has raised I can see him squeaking by with the thinnest of margins like Downer in Mayo 1998.

@Laine: I do agree that we don’t have ethnic, and religious voting blocs in Australia, unlike in the USA.

I still think the demographics of Kooyong, and Goldstein are quite different though. They are both affluent areas where parents send their kids to private schools, but many of the white people in the western part of Kooyong have an Irish Catholic heritage that makes them anti monarchy. Brighton, on the other hand, has the highest percentage of Anglicans in Melbourne. The only Anglican Church west of Glenferrie Road in Hawthorn closed down due to non attendance. A visitor to Hawthorn once commented in the 1960’s that three things mark the suburb; Peter Hudson, and two towering Catholic Churches (Church of the Immaculate Conception, and St Anthony’s). When the Richmond Irish Catholics became more upwardly mobile they moved to Hawthorn. The boundaries of Kooyong have hardly changed since the republic referendum. The reason why there are pubs in Kew, and Hawthorn is because they were Catholic, whereas Camberwell, Canterbury, Balwyn, Balwyn North, Surrey Hills, and Glen Iris were Protestant dry areas.

English is the number one non Australian born ethnicity in Brighton, Sandringham, Beaumaris, Black Rock, Hampton, and Brighton East. Indian is the number one non Australian born ethnicity in Hawthorn. Chinese is the number one non Australian born ethnicity in Kew, Kew East, Hawthorn East, Balwyn, and Balwyn North. Chinese is number two in Hawthorn. Dr Ryan knows the Chinese community is fed up with the Sinophobia of the Liberal Party. She has published literature in Chinese, because they are a significant part of the electorate.

I think social class determines how one votes, yet there are sometimes other reasons, and sometimes it is because an ethnic group feels alienated by the government. Bennelong is a rich electorate but it has a large Chinese community, and it could go Labor.

@Trent: You could be right. I can’t imagine socially progressive people in Kooyong wanting Dutton, so they could hold their nose, and vote Frydenberg. Apparently there have been invalid votes in Kooyong because some Dr Ryan voters did not know they had to number every box. This could be enough for Frydenberg to hang on.

Wilson would have won with a 4.8% margin had it been a traditional contest, as per the AEC’s TPP calculation. Slightly larger swing to Labor here than in Kooyong though, at 3.0% as opposed to 2.21% against Frydenberg.

What is the Liberal parties logic in running the same defeated candidates from 2022 in 2025? Wilson will lose again, and rightfully so because he comes across as arrogant. Especially one time on ABC Q&A.

I think this country is screwed if the same people who served in the previous coalition government get back in. Not having a repeat of 2013-2022 where I constantly had to check the news everyday to see if they cut anything. But my family was less worried under Turnbull than they were under Morrison and Abbott.

I will personally volunteer for the anti-coalition candidate in these seats in hope it tips the balance if it was to come within a few hundred votes.

I hope the redistribution does not make this easier for the Libs. Please shift the seat North if it has to be shifted so it is less favourable to Wilson.

@daniel we get it you don’t like the coalition the party had a democratic vote on who runs and ne was chosen. The choice will be up to the people of Goldstein. So you are advocating for the aec to gerrymander to suit your political view? It won’t shiftjisttosuit onecandidste

While Daniels comment was interesting to say the least they have a point abt preselecting Wilson again. He is tainted with the hand of Morrison who most voters in the electorate disliked and apart from calling himself a ‘modern liberal’ i can’t see anything he has done to distance himself from the brand which his voters strongly dislike. I could see someone like Trent Zimmerman getting back in as they have a record of break ranks with the party on certain issue but I just can’t see the same thing happening with Wilson.

I expect it to go about as well as Sophie Mirabella recontesting Indi in 2016. Even Mirabella could argue that Indi would have a local member who’d be highly influential in government if they voted her back in.

Perhaps he’s keeping the profile high in case the swing is on and he can argue that he could be the difference between a Liberal and a Labor government. I think from the perspective of Victoria that will be the election after the next, and it’s yet to be seen what Zoe Daniel would decide in a hung parliament situation at any rate.

@john independents have weakness and can be beaten. Your also forgetting that Zoe Daniel isn’t Cathy McGowan and Tim Wilson isn’t Sophie Mirabella. There also the factor of coming from opposition. I can tell you right now she’d support Labor if it becomes a hung parliament which is expected in 2025. Thats where she is weak.

John, why is it weak for an independent to support a party you don’t support? Would you say the same thing about Dai Le if she supported the coalition if she is re-elected despite her seat strongly leaning towards Labor?

And federal independents are rarely beaten, state independents can be beaten like here in Victoria.

@daniel t I’m saying they prone to not voting with the will of their electorate when it comes time to pick a side and that is something that the libs will expolit. Look what happened to Windsor and oakshott. Well if she did she would most likely meet the same fate

@john, Goldstein is an urban marginal seat on 2PP terms and has seen a long-term trend towards Labor. This is a stark contrast from New England and Lyne, which were both safe Nationals seats in the bush. Zoe Daniel has plenty of room to support a Labor gov politically, especially one such as the current that isn’t interested in left-wing economics all that much.

It’s still a lnp seat on 2pp terms and what little margin she has would be gone as voters who wanted lib over would become dissafected

@Indricothere, i would not say Goldstein has seen a long term trend to Labor. In 2016, the Libs got their best result since 1990 and it was not until an independent ran in 2022 that the Libs fell below 50% on the current boundaries. It is still an economically right-wing seat. In 2PP terms, Kooyong & Goldstein remain the strongest seats purely in metro Melbourne for the LNP. La Trobe is a hybrid seat and includes significant rural areas. I also agree that Tim Wilson is no Sophie Mirabella or even Tony Abbott in this seat and it was a general Teal wave that saw him ousted.

@nimalan and the fact the were in government. As we saw at the Vic election teals were wiped out with the coalition in opposition. We will see what the redistribution brings. There will be a shift to the libs from Labor in my opinion but let’s see if that effects the teals

Tim Wilson is probably one of the more controversial of the MPs ousted by the teals which is why many predicted him to be the first MP to lose to the teals in 2022. I doubt his moderate credentials, he comes across as pretty much another James Paterson, not a religious conservative but a libertarian and national security hawk. Don’t think that’s too appealing to the voters in Goldstein.

@ Dan M
I agree he is a Libertarian but did come out in favour of climate action and being Gay himself means like you said he is not a religious conservative. Unlike James Paterson he did back Turnbull during the leadership spill. He does seem to be a national security hawk but does probably overemphasis it as much as James Paterson. Unlike Kooyong, there is a very small Chinese community in Goldstein and the main minority group are Jews. I feel Celia Hammond was the most controversial of the ousted MPs by the teals for comments she made as recently as 2019.

@nimalan the Jewish population could be the deciding factor especially given the teals stance on israel

@ John i tend to agree with you. I would also keep a close eye on Higgins even without the Caulfield swap it has a high % of Jewish Australians and may swing to Libs as well due to Israel.

@nimalan I’m not too hopeful on them doing the Caulfield swap despite the number of people suggesting it. Given that MacNamara is close to quota they may just go with making it closer.

@ John, yeah i am not sure to be honest it will be interesting once the AEC publishes draft boundaries what Jewish community organisations submit in the objections stage. However, long term i feel it will be harder to keep Caulfield in Macnamara. There is a lot of population growth around Fishermens Bend, Southbank so it is probably will be the case that slowly it will start to shed parts of Caulfield, Elsternwick etc to either Goldstein or Higgins. Macnamara has already lost Caulfield South and most of Elsternwick to Goldstein without taking in any part of Stonnington LGA.

@ nimalan yeavlong term it should be done. If an expansion of parliament occurs which I reckon will by the 2034 election at the latest it can be constrained to the port Phillip lga

Tim Wilson seeking nomination doesn’t surprise me. Out of all the Liberals to lost to the teals in 2022, he appeared as the most likely to run again. I sense he’s been lurking around. He does political commentary in the AFR with Jason Falinski, though the latter is now the NSW Party President. Josh Frydenberg has moved on and Dave Sharma is now a Senator.

2022’s election was very different in that it was decided on climate action, integrity, treatment of women, and management and response to Covid and natural disasters, especially bushfires. There was a bit of inflation and cost of living in the mix. Such factors drove the teal wave. I sense 2025’s election will be about the economy again and this includes cost of living.

Zoe Daniel may have pretty much all her electorate intact post-redistribution and benefit from a sophomore surge like Zali Steggall. Higgins will be one to watch, along with the Liberal marginals in metro Melbourne.

It was reported Stephanie Hunt, a lawyer and former staffer to two foreign ministers, will challenge Tim Wilson for the right to run as the Liberal candidate in the Melbourne seat of Goldstein at the next federal election. My guess is Wilson will probably get up in preselection, as recognition as the previous member, but won’t be successful at the general election against Zoe Daniel.

Tim Wilson has won preselection here. Zoe Daniel should easily win a second term here.

Looking forward to seeing Tim crying about how no one appreciates him again

Unlike in Kooyong, where I think preselecting a strong Lib candidate who fits the electorate quite well and Monique’s controversies puts it very much in play, Goldstein will be a different story. Here it is Tim who has the baggage.

It depends, there were some proposals that would place Caulfield into Goldstein which would make a Libs regaining more likely due to Israel but regardless of where Goldstein would be redistributed, the seat voted 56% Yes for the Voice Referendum which is even more than the Teal TPP margin (52.8%) and going to make it harder to win back Teal Voters who would not like Peter Dutton with anti-intellectualism and right-wing populism.

I reckon he will lose due to the redistribution

@John, that’s more likely if the seat moves East to take parts of Issacs where the ALP vote is stronger

@marh i think it will ive added bentleigh east from hotham

This is the least Indigenous seat in not just Victoria but all of Australia. Only 0.2% of people in this seat are Indigenous. Yet this seat voted Yes.

Interestingly every single federal seat in Victoria is under 5% Indigenous.

Is Mallee or Nicholls most indigenous?
Interesting, how the Aboriginal community itself was too small to play a decider in the Voice referendum

@ NP
To do a Teal seat comparison he are some booths to compare. I have excluded more middle class booths along the Frankston line
For Liberal Primary State seat in Brackets
Tealish Booths
1. Gardenvale (Brighton)
2. Landcox (Brighton)
3. Brighton East (Brighton)
4. Middle Brighton (Brighton)
5. Brighton Beach (Brighton)
6. Hampton (Sandringham)
7. Sandringham (Sandringham)
8. Black Rock (Sandringham)
9. Black Rock South (Sandringham)
10. Beaumaris (Sandringham)
12. Beaumaris Central (Sandringham)
13. Caulfield South (Caulfield)
14. Elsternwick (Caulfield)