Gilmore – Australia 2022

I’m surprised Amanda Findley isn’t running for Greens. Incumbent Mayors are eligible for federal elections (McBain was the incumbent Bega Valley mayor).

Carmel McCallum is a competent candidate, who performed quite well in a Sky News forum here in 2019. But with Findley’s profile, and having recently been reelected, she could guarantee that Liberals have no chance.

I’m still tipping a Labor retain based on local government results and Labor’s strength on the coast in the Eden Monaro and Bega byelections.

Ahh John, but Mr Shoebridge running for the Senate will create a casual vacancy in the NSW Upper House, won’t it? A shame and disservice to the Shoalhaven people who elected her if she was to fill that spot, but a potential outcome.

It’s not a potential outcome. The Greens have already chosen Shoebridge’s successor, and it’s Sue Higginson. As far as I can tell Amanda Findley hasn’t run for a state upper house seat since 2009. You’re just making stuff up.

Labor could very well the election but they aren’t holding this seat sadly.

A few weeks ago I would have given Gilmore to Andrew Constance no questions asked. But Labor is at a very high tide right now in NSW. No forgone conclusion but think Constance may struggle to overcome an underlying groundswell going against the Coalition. Thoughts?

yeah, tighter now…but the ‘economic uncertainty’ debate which will now dominate up to 21st will get him over the line…would think constance is milking his post-fires anti-ScoMo chest-poking like crazy on the ground, and keeping the PM away…

If Andrew Constance loses, what’s the bet he’ll run for state politics again?

Constance will lose. his state seat did not overlap any more than 30% of Gilmore and his colleague state mp for Kiama suspended from.the state parliament by his own side.

Given the remaining votes are postals all favouring the Liberals, Constance might get in and we might get a decent moderate MP. Shame Frydenberg was defeated though, even as a Liberal I feel Dutton would be bad.

I knew the Libs would win at least one seat from Labor but didn’t expect it to be this one.

Anyone know how/why Andrew Constance bucked the national trend and won?

Not called yet but looks very likely to win. Constance was a reasonably popular challenger. Although if he does win the redistribution may push this into Bega Valley which would be the end of his career.

Analysing the results further there has apparently been an issue with the preferences in one booth – this will be exceptionally close.

Votante, not only is Andrew Constance a moderate but he was quite active in his local community whilst serving as a state MP, particularly helping out with the bushfire recovery effort in 2020.

This is still extremely close on the count and could go either way. Though now Kevin Bonham points out an error on the booth counting in Gerringong which would mean Constance is behind if corrected.

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-house-of-reps-summary-page-and.html

“There is no way Constance is getting nearly 80% of preferences in a substantial booth with a decent sized Greens vote. It seems the numbers (247 and 69) have been credited to Gilmore and Phillips the wrong way round and in fact, Constance’s lead is not 360 votes; it’s 4.

[Edit: And Constance’s lead has dropped another 54, so he is effectively now behind.]”

Yes that is obvious- -or int might just be that greens preferences have been wrongly allocated.

How can this happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Either way it makes the seat much more possible for Labor

Gilmore muddle finally fixed.

My latest projection has Labor winning by 158 votes, depends on the remaining postals, declaration pre-polls and absent votes.

Gilmore Labor 2PP in LGA’s:
Kiama: 52.93% (+1.36%)
Shoalhaven: 50.69% (-2.67%)
Eurobodalla: 47.47% (-4.49%)

Interesting to see the small swing to Labor in Kiama and the big swing to the Liberals in northern Eurobodalla…

Isn’t Constance from Eurobodalla?

Yes

Labor is now ahead.

It would seem that the Labor margin will just go up from here.

Possible that their star candidate does not win…. Gilmore overlapped less than 30% of his previous state seat

@redistributed It depends on remaining postals, prepolls and absents, refer to this tweet from Antony Green:
https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1531105092497461248

If Fiona wins she’ll be the first Labor MP re-elected here.

From the recent update it would seem Fiona has this in the bag. Absentees and Prepolls have heavily favoured her and there are more of these to be processed than all the missing oistals, even assuming they all are received by Friday

Despite being ultra marginal, Constance would have been a credible leadership contender and could have played a similar role to Turnbull while Abbott was opposition leader (Q&A leather jacket). Labor must be over the moon they retained here, and now have a floor majority.

A seat to watch in 2025. Much harder sell for Findley and likely the top of the LNP target list, but not sure Dutton is the man to win here.

Will be glad to see Constance gone. A disgustingly arrogant man and possibly the worst Transport Minister in NSW history.

David Elliot is doing his best to take the title

The ABC has just called Gilmore for Labor. The margin is still super narrow. Albo and Fiona Phillips have accepted the win.

The issue for the Libs is that this is a seat where an incumbent can entrench themselves like Joanna Gash. When she retired in 2013 it had a swing to Labor in a year which Labor did poorly in NSW. This seat was only previously won in 1993 which was a high water mark for Labor in NSW. If Andrew Constance had not won i expect Fiona Phillips would have got a swing to her. I wonder if Andrew Constance will try and take back Bega at the next state election like Warren Entsch did in 2010.

Batemans Bay is Andrew Constance’s home base. Should it end up in E-M he may run there or decide to give politics away.

Why the hell hasn’t Constance conceded in Gilmore? Everyone knows Labor has won the seat, the ABC has called the seat, The Liberals lost. The ALP and LNP candidates who lost tough races last month had the humility and respect for democracy to concede when the race was over. So should Andrew Constance.

Constance really waited until 2 hours before the seat was scheduled to be finalized by the AEC to request a recount.

AEC has rejected Andrew Constance request for a recount. That’s all folks.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/101154090

This will be notional liberal considering how much over quota Gilmore is and labor polled best in the north. The only way the redistribution can be shed

I think Constance has wounded Phillips enough that should he contest Eden-Monaro after the redistribution they can win both aeats

Seems to be optimistic guesses here …both are marginal and both trending Labor. By no means ate there obvious liberal wins.

mick constances personal vote helped him come within a hair of winning in an election where the trend was towards labor. given that gilmore is over quota only 2 things can happen at the redistribution. 1. EM takes in the liberal voting rest of eurbodalla including Batemans Bay where Constance is based lowering the margin in EM meaning he will most likely contest EM instead if Gilmore or 2. Whitlam takes in Labor voting Kiama in which case it becomes notionally liberal and constance waltzes into federal parliament. Either way i will bet you anything Constance will be in the next federal parliament. or 3. Albo calls an early election and it stays the same in which case constance should easily overcome the 373 votes he failed to get in 2022 meaning he only needed to convince 187 people to vote differently to win. or maybe they were just informal.

Liberal gain next election.

I expect Gilmore to become notionally Liberal post-redistribution. Both the northern and southern extremes are Labor-leaning. Gilmore is quite over-quota and needs less electors.

There are three possibilities:
1. Lose Kiama and/or Kangaroo Valley (both Labor-leaning) as Whitlam shrinks to become Illawarra-only.
2. Lose Moruya and Tuross Head to Eden-Monaro
3. Lose inland villages and hamlets.

@Votante
1 is not likely because hat causes Eden-Monaro to move further west. The current boundaries are already bad enough considering access from Tumut/Tumbarumba or even Yass to Queanbeyan is very inconvenient and would require going thorough parts of Hume and/or Riverina if going by coaches and rail. While it would be great if Whitlam can shed its Wingecarribee portion, there are coaches from Shellharbour there hence resolving Eden-Monaro would be considered to be a more pressing matter than Whitlam (and rightly so).

I am thinking Eden Monaro loses Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass, and then going up to Clyde River (incl. Constance’s home of Batemans Bay). This causes Gilmore to take parts of Shellharbour LGA.

This will spare Fiona Phillip from having another fight against Constance (who will go Eden-Monaro this time, much to Kristy McBain’s dismay), and addition of parts of Shellharbour will counter the loss of Moruya and the likes.

The Liberals would likely prefer taking on some of the Shellharbour booths and lose Moruya…. Looking at the trends the Shellharbour booths that would be added to Gilmore are more Liberal than the Kiama booths ones were last time. Without Constance, Moruya and surrounds will be much more Labor friendly so liberal vote is inflated here.

Labor being voted out of council, Anna Watson having a 8% primary swing against her at the state election plus the voice referendum signify an ongoing shift away from Labor to conservative politics. Not to mention labor’s consistent mismanagement of the southern Illawarra in policy focuses.

Andrew Constance contesting the senate and a good chance of replacing Marise Payne is a concession he doesn’t think the Liberals will win Gilmore. I doubt Constance will be eyeing Eden-Monaro if he wraps up a senate seat. I see Stew Rockdale used the Voice as a reason behind Liberals winning Gilmore. The voice won’t be likely on voters minds come from next federal election. On top of that the Liberals suffered 13.8% primary swing against themselves in state seat of Shellharbour. Makes a very shaky case of the Liberals gaining Gilmore.

@votante post election the southern end are now liberal booths this is pre election constance managed to turned the south coast liberal as it was apart of his former district of bega.
@leon actually Eden monaro will move east. I’ve got Eden monaro gaining eurobodalla and riverina taking in Yass Valley. Whitlam sheds wingecarribe to hume after it loses Camden.
In regards to where Constance runs he’s already declared he will contest Gilmore but that’s pre redistribution this may change once it’s over if his constituency moves as it would move with the rest of bega into em. They could still win gilmore with the right candidate and if the swing is on.
@nightwatchmen. Not really he wants the senate seat to increase his profile and to use as a springboard into the lower house as he would just resign his position. Another solution would to have Andrew Bragg resign his seat which expires in 2025 and fill Payne’s vacancy and then Constance can fill his. This would appease the factions and they could just broker a deal with him to that effect

@John
I implied that Eden-Monaro moves east because moving it west (or even leaving it status quo) would defy communities of interest. This means no chance Gilmore loses Kiama.

Summary:
Eden-Monaro move east
Gilmore moves North
Whitlam moves West

I am suspecting that the sum of the following would be almost exactly 4 quotas:
Wollongong, Shellharbour, Kiama, Shellharbour LGAs
Eurobodalla, Bega, Quenbeyan-Palerang, Snowy Monaro LGAs
Parts of Goulburn-Mulwaree LGA to the south of M23 and M31 (should not include Goulburn itself)
Parts of Wingecarribee LGA to the south of M31
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CK_zz8s670HpgnqLzT-dlYr51XpQ34Ho/view?usp=sharing

There is a case for Gilmore to lose its southern part (Moruya, Tuross Head) to Eden-Monaro. Eden-Monaro is slightly under-quota and needs more electors. Eden-Monaro could lose parts of its west.
Moruya and Tuross Head are Labor-leaning. There were big swings to Constance in 2022. It could be because of support for their old local state member. There were also big swings to him in Batemans Bay and Mogo.

Constance may end up in the senate, or be retired from politics for good. Since it’s got a low margin, and is not a teal seat, I can see this becoming a Liberal target in 2025.

@leon ok thanks for clarifying that.
in my opinion Eden monaro loses Yass Valley to Riverina and gains the remainder of Eurobodalla from Gilmore
Gilmore loses the remainder of Eurobodalla and not gain anything.
Whitlam loses Wingecarribee to hume
Whitlam – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ldhVhzkjyDDDIa2zEvxt66X5hZHu7rYj/view?usp=drive_link
Eden-monaro – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kq6xjL1BUxLjo3kfCZ0qCdy_f455iL5F/view?usp=drive_link
Gilmore – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1msfr5pXgrjnQlctKoCtkXSwqK-gjdK8P/view?usp=drive_link
@votante he wants the senate spot to springboard into the House. he has laready declared his intention to contest Gilmore. but as its been suggested thats based on the current boundaries. if gilmore loses kiama gilmore is as good as his as it will shed labor voting booths. however if it sheds eurobodalla he will most likelly contest eden monaro as that will take away where he lives which are liberal booths and also because all of his former seat of bega will now be in eden monaro

@ Stew Rockdale, as you seem to be a local, do you have any theories about why the Green vote surged in Cunningham at the last election? Only seems to have happened in Cunningham, not adjoining Whitlam. Loss of retiring MP Sharon Bird’s personal vote maybe?

@leon i think Constance has wounded Phillip enough that another liberal could take the seat from her. though i think the redistribution will hamper this as it will make the seat safer without eurobodalla but it will hurt McBain in Eden-monaro. im willing to bet Constance will be the member for Gilmore or Eden-Monaro at the next election