ALP 2.6%
Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.
Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.
Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.
Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.
In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.
Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.
- Andrew Constance (Liberal)
- Nina Digiglio (Independent)
- Carmel McCallum (Greens)
- Jordan Maloney (United Australia)
- Jerremy Eid (One Nation)
- Adrian Fadini (Liberal Democrats)
- Fiona Phillips (Labor)
Assessment
Gilmore is a very marginal seat that has usually gone with the Liberal Party, but Phillips should benefit from her new incumbency.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 38,972 | 36.2 | -3.0 |
| Warren Mundine | Liberal | 31,427 | 29.2 | -16.1 |
| Katrina Hodgkinson | Nationals | 13,462 | 12.5 | +12.5 |
| Carmel Mary Mccallum | Greens | 10,740 | 10.0 | -0.5 |
| Grant Schultz | Independent | 7,585 | 7.0 | +7.0 |
| Milton Leslight | United Australia Party | 3,638 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Serah Kolukulapally | Christian Democratic Party | 1,853 | 1.7 | -3.3 |
| Informal | 5,970 | 5.3 | +1.1 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 56,652 | 52.6 | +3.3 |
| Warren Mundine | Liberal | 51,025 | 47.4 | -3.3 |
Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.
The ALP won the election-day vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in Kiama to 57.8% in Jervis Bay. Labor won the pre-poll vote more narrowly and lost the other votes (including postal votes) narrowly.
| Voter group | GRN prim | NAT prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nowra | 10.5 | 16.4 | 55.4 | 16,709 | 15.5 |
| Batemans Bay | 10.8 | 10.2 | 55.0 | 9,926 | 9.2 |
| Jervis Bay | 9.8 | 12.1 | 57.8 | 9,080 | 8.4 |
| Kiama | 14.7 | 10.4 | 53.5 | 7,405 | 6.9 |
| Ulladulla | 10.2 | 11.5 | 54.7 | 6,844 | 6.4 |
| Pre-poll | 8.6 | 12.7 | 50.3 | 47,787 | 44.4 |
| Other votes | 11.3 | 10.1 | 49.7 | 9,926 | 9.2 |
Election results in Gilmore at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.
Several reasons for the greens surge in the Northern Illawarra. Expect it to be a long term trend. In summary:
There’s an emerging affluence in the northern suburbs, as such overtime they’re deserting Labor – catalysed by the retiring of Sharon Bird. They didn’t go Liberal for a couple reasons, one the candidate and recourses were minimal. Secondly, there is still strong progressive left wing presence up there, with many university based and health care professionals living in the area, combined with a general NIMBYism. This has resulted in a strong Green result.
Teals might be a threat, but I’m not convinced they’re competitive here due to the demographic advantages for progressive politics in the area.
Andrew Constance has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate for the seat of Gilmore in 2025 baring any major redistribution.
@Daniel T he should be able to win this time or come in as a Senator if there’s a casual vacancy. Either way he’ll be in the next Parliament. He’ll be a Cabinet minister too. Maybe even leader one day.
What are the libs chances here this time with Constance?
Pretty likely I think.
Might be a nice, well-liked guy but he now has a reputation as a “seat shopper”. He tried to get into the Senate twice since he lost in 2022, albeit narrowly. I think his best shot was in 2022 when he was fresher in people’s minds.
A favourable redistribution or a stuff-up by Albo or Fiona Phillips may hand him this seat.
Constance win here. Only went Labor due to a mistep by Morrison trying to parachute an unknown Mundine in 2019 Mundine would probably won in 2025 if he ran. Mundine will probably be running sooner or later somewhere
@John he’ll probably run as a Senator though or to fill a Senate vacancy at least. Where does he live (like what suburb in what electorate)?
@Nether Portal
For the voice referendum, he voted at a joint NSYD and Bradfield based on se ABC footage (I used that booth on a different day). Assuming Nsyd abolition, he would almost certainly be in Bradfield by enrolment.
Batemans Bay I believe. He won preselection 2 days ago
Interesting thing I noticed looking at the voice results, but it appears the majority of voters in Gilmore voted through the declaration vote (prepoll, postal, absent) at 63%.
Definite gain here for liberals. Constance bucked the trend in 2022 and almost won the seat.
In regards to his living arrangements I think he was living in Bomaderry in shoalhaven at the time. He has lived in many places all over nsw including Grafton, Dubbo. A member of the young nation whose traditional lands fall within Gilmore. Morrison should not have dumped a preselected candidate in 2019 which cost them the seat more then likely as the coalition did well in 2019 except for here and two other divisions. Had the coalition not screwed themselves in a few electorates in 2019 labor would probably be in minority right now.
As for his current residence I’m unsure.
@no you wouldn’t waste such a high profile candidate on a Senate spot in my opinion when they could win you a seat in the lower house with his profile
Not definite
A marginal seat with a 2 term mp
@mick only became an mp from a liberal screw up and almost lost in a year when Labor got a swing to them against the trend. Il guarantee a constance win now barring him killing the neighbours dog
Hello my name is Rover
I live in the house next to
Mr Constance… he killed me!
Fun fact if the Liberals won the Kiama PPVC booth with at least 52.0% of the TPP vote then Andrew Constance would’ve won Gilmore.