Fowler – Australia 2022

Fair point Ben, that OLC have gained their support from both disaffected Labor voters and also by cannibalising some Liberal vote to an extent, particularly when the party doesn’t run or runs a more token campaign.

To be fair with all you lot the Greens could preference Le above Keneally – KK still holds some pretty archaic social views -see the debate on Maeve’s Law- and her preselection wasn’t entirely transparent or aligned with grassroots politics, as opposed to Ms. Le.

I think there’s a good chance the Greens will preference Le. But either way Keneally can’t rely on Greens preferences to flow strongly to her the way they would over a Liberal.

Just to correct an earlier comment, neither Dai Le nor Frank Carbone are/were OLC. They ran separate tickets to OLC at the Fairfield council elections.
However, this would be another group that Le could lean into.
Also OLC aren’t really right wing nor necessarily disaffected Liberals. The current and maybe not for long Mayor of Canada Bay, Angelo Tsirekas ran against both Liberal and Labor and was able to equally draw votes from both.
Andrew Clennell says Labor have dismissed Le’s candidacy and are quietly confident, stating Le entered the race too late. Dismissing the fact she has been a councillor in the area for over a decade and Deputy Mayor for longer than Keneally’s candidacy.

Our Local Community is essentially a creation of Paul Garrard from when he defected from the Labor Party to run as an independent during his later years on Parramatta Council.

It is a credit to Garrard that he has grown the party to the level that he has, and recognised its limitations by not running it at State and Federal elections. It will be interesting to observe how long the party lasts, post Garrard, once he departs the council scene, voluntarily, or, involuntarily.

I would not underestimate the Labor Party running a dirty campaign in Fowler. They did so to save Chris Bowen in 2013 in McMahon. They would have many more resources than the Carbone/Le alliance to call on for a Federal election, and the fact that Le has announced her candidacy late is not an irrelevant point in this campaign, especially in the Liverpool portion of the electorate where she is unknown, even compared to Keneally.

To reply to the point regarding Bowen’s successor in McMahon, one hopes the Labor branches get it right. Traditionally, the successors have been logical from Crosio to Bowen. McDermott or Zangari would be good candidates, but I do have this nagging feeling that we will see a poor candidate, or an imposed candidate on McMahon when the time comes.

As much as I disagree with Kenneally being parachuted here you have to look at Dai Le, If she wins who will she back? She cannot back the Liberal party because this still is a strong Labor seat and doing so would be disrespectful to voters of this seat (Same thing goes for Steggall,Haines,Sharkie and any other blue ribbon independent who backs Labor) and same thing went to Oakeshott and Windsor.

Dai Le was a former Liberal I believe so it would seem likely for her to back the Liberals (Same thing for the independent who is running in Hinkler) however unlike Hinkler, Fowler is Labor heartland.

Kenneally should have ran in Sydney or whichever seat overlapped her former state seat of Heffron.

In the event she fails I expect it to put her political career to an end.

Olc are markedly right wing…at the council level they align with the liberals. And rely on them. Look at Cumberland council while run by a olc mayor. Who appears to be doing the same in the Federal electorate of Parramatta guess where his preferences go

Fairfield-Liverpool politics being the dysfunctional family of Australian politics, it is not easy to predict what Le will do, in the event of a hung parliament. Both parties, Labor and Liberal, would see her as being up for grabs.

History being a guide here, Le obviously was a member of the Liberal Party and had links to a past independent who ran in Cabramatta in 1999, and her backer, Carbone, was a prominent member of the Labor Party in Fairfield until he was disendorsed by them for the mayoral position which ranks as being one of the most bone-headed moves in local political history. Presuming that Le actually has her own mind, and gauging her own political history, I doubt she backs Labor when it comes to the crunch. Everything, including now, suggests that she fights the Labor Party, not the Liberal Party.

Fowler is a strong Labor seat, traditionally, and might go back to being stronger in the next redistribution (oddly, the 2168 Green Valley suburbs are not part of the seat, and haven’t been since the last redistribution). Having said that, I think that Le would see a defeat of Labor, and a hung parliament as a repudiation of Labor in the seat, and therefore for government. Just my best educated guess, based on my knowledge of Fairfield-Liverpool politics.

Labor has done very little for Fairfield especially, but also Liverpool in decades. It is a save seat to make up numbers and there is no Federal funding for the area when Labor is in power as they believe they can not loose Fowler and there is no money coming from the Liberals as they never believe they will win. So the area stays chronically underfunded. Over 10,000 Syrian and Iraqi refugees made they area their home with little Federal funds given to integrate and provide resources. I can not see anyone out of the 7 candidates (One Nation is missing in your list above and Le’s website link is missing) giving Keneally the preference, as she simply is absolutely the wrong candidate for that seat. Her values and life experiences just clash with what Fowler is all about. When Fairfield and Liverpool were in lockdown she was sun backing, gardening and snorkelling at Scotland Iland. So Le might have a chance, if the electorate has finally woken up and being sick of being the taken for granted electorate. Le is on the record that she will support stability of Government as a priority and will determine her support based on the resources which finally will come for Fairfield Hospital and other local underfunded priorities. Maybe Fowler for once will get a slice of the pie. The fact that the ALP repeated the same arrogance with parachuting a candidate into Parramatta – after all the Fowler uproar, just shows the lack of respect for local democratic grass roots candidate selection. Keneally deserves to lose, because of what she represents in our party system- which is unfortunately less democratic than it could be.

Well Le announced she was running when I was already well underway with my last candidate update and she didn’t have a website yet. There are consequences for announcing your run so late.

An independent candidate should have been campaigning 12 months ago not waiting till last minute to announce candidacy.
Australian Labor Party candidates such as Kennealy are always going to have trouble with a Yuppy lifestyle coming into conflict with working class values.
When one is living on $600 per the electricity bill must be a higher priority than human rights in foreign climes. This is why the best Australian Labor Party candidates are Union officials in Kym Beazley seniors words the cream of the working class” and holidays on Scotland Island or Hawaii result in the working class understandably asking “when are you middle class perverts going to stop using the Labor Party as a spiritual spitoon.” This of course is as applicable to Morrison’s holidays as Kennealy. The biggest mistake so far in this campaign is Albanese’s backdown on New Start Allowance and it may well come back to bite him in Fowler.

Are Dai Le and Tu Le related at all?

Le is an extremely common family name. Can’t say for certain but the working assumption would be no.

The distribution of Vietnamese surnames is quite extraordinary. “Nguyen” accounts for around 40% of Vietnamese people. “Tran” and “Le” are around 10% each.

KK probly win but a significantly reduced margin the parachuting of a powerbroker who has no political talent will cause some of the Labor vote to go elsewhere

Is this only seat Labor could lose to an independent to their right? That being said don’t underestimate traditional Labor loyalty holding up at federal level (very different from local) & economically this is a very traditional Labor seat-poor & big manufacturing workforce. I tip KK to exceed expectations here a bit.

Keneally’s electoral record – particularly leading the NSW ALP to its biggest defeat in decades (which one would expect to end any political career or any hope of a comeback) – would suggest that she isn’t particularly well regarded by the electorate, not to mention her associations with political figures that were done in for corrupt conduct. Her political career hasn’t been one that has been propped up by popular support but rather one that has been prolonged by the party machine time and time again and being parachuted into this very multicultural working class electorate despite her being so disconnected with anything to do with the working class (living on the Northern Beaches of Sydney until only recently) exemplifies this.

As a result, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a strong anti-Labor swing here that bucks a probable broad pro-Labor swing everywhere else, enough even for the seat to change hands. In this scenario, I doubt it’ll be the end of Keneally’s career as the party will no doubt find some way of prolonging her stay in public life.

Agree Matt, she is a poor fit for this seat. Only thing i would say is that there maybe some sympathy in the Labor party as she was a sacrificial lamb placed by the powerbrokers prior to the 2011 state election and much of the problems in NSW Labor occurred long before she was installed. Also agree the Northern Beaches is almost polar opposite of Fowler being among the least diverse urban areas in Australia and an area of almost no social disadvantage,

What’s the feeling on the ground in Fowler? From afar I know Dai Le has been in local politics for quite some time now, but have no idea how well regarded she is in the area. I would think Labor HQ at this point are probably regretting parachuting in KK. Does Dai Le being an ex-Liberal party member hinder her chances at all? I think Labor has taken this seat for granted and their vote is probably quite “soft”, wouldn’t be surprised if Dai Le wins.

The Sydney Morning Herald today discussed Dai’s interesting strategy of using a quote from retiring Labor MP Chris Hayes where he said his successor should be “someone who has grown up in our local area … and has demonstrated now for a long period of time her ongoing commitment to advancing the interests of our area”.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/fowler-independent-using-quote-from-retired-labor-mp-in-campaign-material-against-keneally-20220429-p5ah8m.html

I just can’t see Labor’s vote falling enough for Le to have a chance especially at a likely pro Labor swing election.

All other parties in Fowler (Greens HTV pending) have directed their How to Votes to either put Keneally last or Le above her.
Libs have out Le on their HTV.

@Xenu whilst it may be a pro Labor swing against the Coalition, it is definitely an election for Independents above all else. Possibly stronger than a swing to Labor.

Internal polling conducted by both Unions and Labor have indicated that Keneally will suffer mass swings and will be reliant heavily on preference flow

Should read Libs have put Le 2nd on their HTV

In all circumstances Fowler might end up becoming closer than Eden Monaro this time around.

When Chris Hayes ran for the first time, he had a 13% swing against him. Thomas Dang got crazy swings of upto 25% in the polling booths of Cabramatta and Canley Vale.

Going into this election, Labor is not sitting on 2007’s high first preference vote.

Liberals whatever happens liberals will hold on to 20-25% of its traditional voters.

Dai Le’s main gains will come from Central area where Labor is doing well traditionally.

If Labor get below 40% in first preference then this election will go to the wire

Greens HTV is up on Avery Howard’s Twitter and they recommended preferences to Keneally above Le. I suspect Le will get some preferences but that’s a few % in Keneally’s corner.

would’ve been stupid for the greens to preference Le over Keneally, Le is a former right liberal is she not?

Former liberal yes, I don’t think “right liberal” is correct. Her main political ally is ex-Labor.

@Lachlan Correct in some respects. Le was in the Right Faction of the Libs and was a protege of former Upper House and Hard Right Factional Leader Charlie Lynn.
Le had the backing of both Lynn and Baird to take a spot in the Upper House back in 2015 but got burned when Jai Rowell shifted factional support and gave the spot to Lou Amato.
She had also been floated as a candidate for Reid at various stages but became disillusioned with the factional games in the party and being overlooked.
Keneally was socially conservative in her early years in the state parliament but changed track when it became politically expedient.
Rather arrogant of Keneally to be campaigning in WA and Queensland when she hasn’t even held Fowler. Even Plibersek didn’t go to Perth and instead had her own campaign launch in Sydney.
The “local and strong voice” in Canberra that Keneally is advocating will be difficult to reconcile if she becomes a senior minister and probably won’t be seen again until next election.
Le’s success will also further engrain Carbone’s power in the area, so it is in his interest that she succeeds. The next move being to get strong independents, aligned to both, to run in both Cabramatta and Fairfield

Why do politicians want to switch from the Senate to the lower house? Does Keneally have PM ambitions?

John, part of the reasoning behind Keneally’s move was because she was demoted from the Labor ticket, from 1st place to 3rd which is considered unwinnable for Labor.

@John in Keneally’s case a bit of both.
The Lower House offers more opportunities and security for politicians in major parties.
If a swing is on against the major parties, Senators are at the whim of voters and maybe booted depending on where they are on the ticket. The flip side is they get a 6 year term vs. a 3 year term, and also don’t deal with day to day inquiries like a House of Rep MP does. In many instances, Senators palm of these queries to the MP.
House of Reps benefit is that personal vote, depending on the profile of the MP, can actually outweigh that of the party. A popular MP can be insulated from the unpopular party they are a member of, and survive another day.
Keneally is not factionally strong and not well liked by segments of her own party.
Deb O’Neill who is a member of the same faction as Keneally, both sort the top spot on the Labor ticket. This is usually a 2/1 split between the left and right similar to the Libs/Nationals in NSW and Victoria. That is Right or Libs get 1st and 3rd, whilst the Left and Nats get 2nd.
It used to be the first 3 are winnable but now as the major parties votes have dropped, only the first 2 spots are guaranteed.
In Keneally’s case she didn’t have the backing of the powerful SDA, like O’Neill did/does.
KK has never had a strong union background or backing, and is a bit of a pretender in this area. Like JYL could’ve easily fit into the Liberal party.
However, Sussex St seems to run a protection racket on Keneally for whatever reason and provided a lifeline in the form of a safe Labor seat in the lower house.
In many ways this is more fortuitous, as many Senators are constantly shopping around for lower house seats like Thistlewaite waiting patiently for Kingsford-Smith and Feeney in Victoria/Batman.
She ended up getting with a seat that will provide her with greater longevity, a higher profile and yes a greater chance of becoming leader of the party.
In other words failing upwards.

Whilst Le may get a fairly good result, I can’t see this being lost by the ALP. I doubt there is real anger at the ALP in the area. Some in the Vietnamese community may be annoyed but I don’t think the deep loyalty to ALP voting will disappear in an election when Labor is likely to form government.

@ Lucas to me Fowler will be the ultimate test of people voting party over person.
Keneally is clearly not an overly likeable figure but voters will overlook this because of what is under her name on the ballot.
Or is there enough resentment by voters to reject her regardless of the swing to Labor?
I think this could be Labor’s Indi/Mirabella moment. Senior frontbencher, despised by electorate who loses to a popular independent.
The correlation between this stubborn logic by Party operatives is the main cause of suppression of the primary vote of the major parties and the movement to minors. However playing averages and the safety net of CPV means they will always return to power.

Could be wrong but this seems like the kind of seat that gets a lot of chatter among political junkies but is going to be a rather uneventful win for Labor. Preselection shenanigans are something the average punter, as a rule, doesn’t care about. Most independents in local councils don’t win when running for federal seats and that would only be harder as a former Liberal in this seat. The teal movement is riding a lot of long-term disaffection from “wet” liberal demographics against the current government (along with a lot of money and media attention) which doesn’t apply to this seat. For the same reasons, I doubt Hughes is going to end up as anything except a Liberal hold (not the right seat for the “teal” candidate).

For what it’s worth, Keneally isn’t campaigning like Frydenburg either and I would take that as a sign of confidence.

@LJ Davidson. I think that’s a good analogy. I remember speaking to friends in Wodonga in 2013 who were insistent that Sophie Mirabella was in danger. I didn’t believe them because I thought that there was no way a safe Liberal seat would vote out a guaranteed cabinet minister in an election the Coalition was almost certain to win. But it happened and the coalition is still yet to get Indi back. Could be a similar dynamic in Fowler, but I doubt it. Rural and regional voters tend to be more aware of who their local member is due to a clear sense of local community. For an independent to win you most commonly need a highly engaged inner city electorate or a regional seat. Fowler doesn’t fit either category. Stranger things have happened though.

Given Keneally was Premier of a government that lost in a historic landslide, media coverage of the parachuting and levels of enthusiasm for major parties not being particularly high, I wouldn`t rule it out.

Kristina Keneally is so on the nose in Fowler and Le has run a very strong campaign – the only way for Labor to rescue this calamity and Labor miscalculation is to get the BIG dirt file out. Expect a strong Le is a communist or this and that campaign by Labor. Keneally will not stop at BIG Lies to stop the embarrassment of losing another election. Then again there is a lot of dirt on Keneally from her son’s latest escapades (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10252423/Senator-Kristina-Keneallys-policeman-son-accused-fabricating-evidence.html ) to Mean Girl and Bully allegations, the whole old Eddie Obeid saga and puppetiring and so on. So I suppose if KK gets dirty – there is no shortage to return fire. My money is on Le to win the seat. Keneally is Le’s dream candidate.

You would think given some of the comments here that Keneally would have performed terribly at the 2017 Bennelong by-election if she was such a dud candidate. I suspect people are projecting much of their own dislike onto a generally apathetic electorate.

Does anyone have actual polling numbers to suggest Keneally is in trouble? Or is this just people’s feelings from their respective echo chambers? PV numbers for Le?

As for dirt file on Le – funny you should mention the Communist angle, as someone in the Vietnamese community is already be running with that and spraying it on her signs (in Vietnamese).

For the record, I do agree that KK in Fowler and Garland in Chisholm were odd choices by the ALP. But I still haven’t seen any hard evidence that it’s definitely going to cost them Fowler. Chisholm maybe, but not clear-cut there either.

If memory serves she lost the 2017 by-election with JA beating her by 10% in first preferences, despite her receiving very favourable coverage up to the election.
She was Premier of NSW when Labor to its worst lost in its history. Granted much of it wasn’t all her doing but she was brought in specifically to sandbag seats like Rudd was when he toppled Gillard the 2nd time. Except he succeeded where she failed.
She lost top Senate spot despite being in the senior Leadership team because she is not liked by the Unions because she has no affinity to them
I don’t see how any of this makes her a desirable candidate for the Labor Party or the wider electorate.
There has been a lot of internal polling about her unsuitability of the seat and maybe she does squeak out a win but I think Labor can still win government without Fowler, which is why the focus hasn’t been on it.
The story about her son and the NSW police force will gain more traction if they get elected which will cause further complications from what has been circulated within the Police Union

She had a 5% swing to Labor in that by-election. And I don’t know what favourable coverage you refer to but she got criticised for not living in the electorate and it didn’t seem to hurt particularly with Bennelong voters.

Of course, preselecting her in this seat was unfitting and has caused some sourness, but ordinary voters are not generally interested in preselection dramas, particularly from 8 months ago. And I’ve yet to see anything to confirm she’s hated among the electorate or warrants comparison to Mirabella. And if there are negative opinions, they would come from her being parachuted and not her tenure as premier.

Internal polling can tell you anything depending on the source. I’ve heard polling say that Labor is unworried. In the absence of public polls with transparent methodology, the best indicator is to me is that Keneally isn’t rooted in the electorate like Frydenberg.

I would view this as being the Labor version of Hume or Hughes – seats where the left is motivated to back an independent but where the underlying party leanings and demographics don’t make a win very likely. That’s not to say they are impossible, but there isn’t a long running undercurrent of disaffection like there has been in Wentworth/Kooyong/Goldstein etc. Voters here want relief on kitchen-table issues and that is what Labor promises them.

I’d just like to add that as a local in the past week alone I have received 3 seperate flyers/promo cards promoting Keneally. In comparison the retiring MP, Chris Hayes would do 2-3 across an entire election campaign so this could just be her trying to familiarise the electorate with her face/name or a sign that she may be in trouble.
Getting around the community I’ve noticed also that the poster game on major intersections and street corners (particularly around the central and south booth areas) seem to favour Dai Le with about two posters for every Keneally one.

I agree more with Adda – LJ Davidson whilst Keneally still lost on primary votes she actually achieved a 7% or so PV swing in her favour and that was whilst she was still labelled as an ‘outsider’.

Also Dai Le is a bit different to Cathy McGowan in Indi. McGowan was seen as a true community candidate with no links to government or party heirachy whilst Dai Le’s stint in local government and also as a former registered Liberal may work against her somewhat.

The same could be said for candidates like Allegra Spender and Kate Chaney- their past or family connections to political parties could hurt them to a certain degree.

I still wouldn’t call Keneally’s performance in Bennelong a good result. Considering the field had 12 candidates, most of which would’ve gone back to JA had they not been in the race or at the very least would’ve got him close to 50% on first preference.
You may be right that voter anger is not a palpable as was against Mirabella but as Lachlan points out, the overkill of signage particularly in areas like Canley Vale, Cabramatta and Cab West is overkill as is the mail outs. Have relatives in Chipping Norton who have been bombarded with glossy garbage by the Keneally propaganda machine.
What is a risk for her is apathy turned to anger, which is what happened to several candidates last time around like Crosby in Reid and Gambian in Banks, where if you go too heavy with the pamphlet drops and signage people either tune out or deliberately change votes.
Also doesn’t this further the Keneally narrative of being an outsider everywhere she goes. She was an outsider in Bennelong because her state seat was in the South East and now she is an outsider because she lives on Scotland Island.
But she still manages to get these opportunities… crazy. It’s not like she was successful in the private sector either, she ran Basketball Australia into the ground too
Notwithstanding Dai Le is actually a very good local candidate and actually connected to the area. Labor would love to have someone like that in their party

Are you all seriously trying to compare Bennelong to Fowler?

No I think just Keneally as a candidate and performer in general. She seems to be a blow-in for every seat she runs for.
Bennelong wasn’t particularly impressive as a result considering she had some inbuilt advantages
suppressed incumbent vote due to:
– overcrowded field
– incumbent caused by-election
– running against a sitting government
– Labor party resources and I would say fairly good press coverage

Fowler she was gifted with:
– a safe margin
– first on the ballot
– comparative to other seats not as many candidates running and;
– a lot of resources given to her campaign (despite it being a safe seat)

Yes, my comment is more directed to those suggesting that her purportedly acceptable performance in Bennelong suggests she is a good candidate for Fowler. There’d be no complaints from me if she was the Labor candidate for Mackellar!

Who exactly suggested she was a good candidate for Fowler? My point was that there’s no evidence she’s widely disliked or a Mirabella. Clearly her time as premier wasn’t a negative for her in Bennelong.

I don`t recall there being much in the way of parachuting fuss about Keneally in Bennalong. There has been fuss in the national media about the parachuting in Fowler.

No independents ran in the Bennelong byelection and it was a high profile contest between the ALP and Liberals, with both putting resources in, consequently its was very major party focused and thus a likely motive for avoiding intra-partisan conflict over the candidate. There were also no other Liberal held seats to face a by-election at that time, so there are no other results to compare Keneally`s result with to analyse her personal effect of the result.