Fowler – Australia 2022

For me, my objection to Keneally running here has absolutely nothing to do with “diversity”. I honestly couldn’t care less about who has the greater claim to “being diverse”. My objection has everything to do with fitness to represent the electorate. If Keneally had lived in Western Sydney at some point in her life, I’d feel very different.

Nicholas

100% agree. There are two types of immigrants in Australia; those from English and non-English speaking backgrounds, and the concept that they mean the same thing is pathetic.

Ben,

Thanks for letting my provocative post go through.

While not exactly on Fowler the point you make about Parliament not reflecting the face of Australia is spot on. There are about 1m people who identify as having Chinese heritage in Australia and there aren’t that many people with Chinese heritge in Australain parliament (Senator Wong, Goodenough and Lui – any others?). On a per capital basis it should be about 10.

Interestingly (at least to me), there are 221 members of Federal Parliament. According to the 2016 census 3.3% of the population self identified as being indigenous. Putting aside the debate of the validity of self-identification as the way to catergorise someone’s ethnicity, 3.3% of the population would mean 7.49 parliamentarians would also identify as indigenous. According to the parliamentry webpage 6 parliamentarians consider themselves to be indigenous or having indigenous heritage, being:

Linda Burney, MP (ALP, Barton, NSW)
Ken Wyatt, MP (LIB, Hasluck, WA)
Senator Pat Dodson (ALP, WA)
Senator Jacqui Lambie (JLN, Tas.)
Senator Malarndirri McCarthy (ALP, NT) and
Senator Lidia Thorpe (GRN, Vic.).

Given the Country Liberal Party has selected Jacinta Price for the next Senate election and assuming the people listed above are re-elected then there will be 7 politicians who identify as being indigenous which is pretty much reflective of the general population.

I am not sure if I first think of Bob Katter when politicitans with Lebanese heritage are mentioned… which raises the question who measures diversity and what does it actually mean.

On the liberal party and women it has been mentioned to me by a female candidate for pre-section (who ran a close second in a safe seat pre-selection) is that the liberal party has a woman problem. But not what you would expect. Namely, the woman problem is that a proportion of women (about 10% on her estimate) in the party will not vote for a woman in a pre-selction because this group of females think that a woman’s role is in the home……. When you have 5% of the pre-selectors not voting for you under any circumstances it is very very hard to win a contested pre-selection. In a multi-candidate pre-selection when you are female excluded in 3th or 4th place by one or two votes amplifies this issue. As if you make the final two you might have had a very good chance of winning.

Back to Fowler – TL has probably lost the pre-selection this time. But her real test is to get a “cunning plan” together and get a deal to “drop out” on the understanding that she is up for selection in 2 or 3 terms when KK retires. Or a State seat…. And trust that her deal will be welshed on and work the local branches and state machine /factions even harder. Making sure TL gets herself selected is the path to diversity.

Second last point – when KK replaced the first Iranian born Senator (Sam Dastyari) in the Senate I don’t recall there being outrage that the Senate was becoing less “diverse”. When Ed Husic “resigned” so KK could get on the front bench and have balance in the factions I only recall a mumour of dissent. Despite EH having a muslim and Bosnian heritage…. And it was good to see EH back on the front bench at the first opportunity after “doing the right thing”.

Last point – I think that KK is more popular within the labor party than she is with the average punter. I am sure she will win Fowler when (if) pre-selected as it is such a safe seat but will that improve the labor party’s chance of forming government. Not so sure.

PS: Autumn and WD – glad you enjoyed my earlier post.

Best,
Pollster

Paul Keating on the diversity debate:

“And on the diversity point, she’s a migrant herself – she got off the plane and scrambled her way to the NSW premiership, which is a pretty big effort, a pretty good effort.”

Pollster, Welcome your contribution and your make some very interesting points especially if your second last point about competing diversity (Is Gender diversity or ethnic/cultural diversity more important) Your points about Sam Dastyari and EH was very important and worth pondering. i remember a female colleague of mine being disappointing that Julie Bishop was not selected as leader when Turnbull left even through i thought it was a milestone that JF was elected deputy and would have been the first Jewish and non anglo-celtic deputy leader. AA also states that he is the first leader of a major federal party with a non-angloceltic surname. Same thing issue recently when Matt Guy returned as leader of Victorian liberals there was some disappointment that David Southwick was selected instead of Louise Staley even though i think DS as a Jewish person shows diversity in the Liberal party. The Labor party has been successful at almost reaching gender parity if the Liberals had the same level of success that maybe Gender representation will be achieved and then the conversation will move on to other forms of diversity. It needs to be remembered that Australia was a pioneer in women’s suffrage and 120 years later we still dont have gender balance in parliament. But that just my contribution and i am keen for others to share their views in this robust discussion.

Pollster

It should be 8 after the next election because of Dorinda Cox (WA, Greens)

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/fowler2022/comment-page-2#comment-756043

Citizenship based franchise discrimination is one reason that non-Aboriginal People of Colour are a smaller proportion of the parliament than the population. Groups with higher rates of citizenship make up a higher percentage of the voting population. Aboriginal People are almost all citizens as very few were not born here, so they comprise a larger proportion of the voting population than the overall population. Anglo-Celtic people have the next highest rate of citizenship and also the bulk of pre-1984 “British Subject” permanent resident voting population (mostly UK, NZ and Irish citizens), partly (and I do mean only party) explaining their larger share of parliamentarians than total population. Non-British Isles Europeans have the next highest rate of citizenship (plus some pre-1984 Maltese and Cypriot permanent resident voters). While non-Aboriginal People of Colour have a higher rate of non-citizenship and of those without citizenship, few are pre-1984 “British Subject” voters.

Age based voting discrimination may also be a factor. Groups that skew younger have a lower proportion of the voting population, particularly with recent immigrant groups where a disproportionate proportion of Australian Citizens in recent immigrant groups are children due to Australian Citizenship being automatic for children of permanent residents born here and automatic for children of other non-citizens who have lived here for 10 years.

Also, Kerrynne Liddle, an Aboriginal woman has been presented in the normally winnable 3rd spot for the SA Libs.

KK is calling the big guns to rescue her from oblivion before election, this really a donkey move…simple fact: she is not from western sydney and she is doing this for her selfish career move and not for electorates of fowler…this american migrant did not give a damn about Fowler…

Thanks for all your comments above. Lots of very good interesting points. A few issues that stood out.

Positive that there may be 8 or 9 indigenous members in the next parliament.

Age – more broadly than just voting – most politicians are in their 40s, 50s and 60s and those who make the decisions, that is ministers and primeminsters / premiers – are predominantly in their late 40s and early 50s. Of the nine leaders of Governement in Australia, 7 were born in a 7 year period from 1968 to 1973 and the other two were born in 1976 and 1964. Not much diversity here… Although the 34 year old lib leader in WA probably had the least sucessful election result ever (the word probably is most likely redundant). So maybe the constituents want leaders who are old enough but not too old?

Based on what I see on the daily press conferences there is a similar age issue with all the medical experts that the leaders are listening to (and taking their advice almost unquestionly). Which leads to decisions that don’t impact on these people too much – our cohort can work from home and have family living with us and we don’t go out to party with our friends. Whereas young people are doing remote learning seperated from their friends, go out partying and want to socailse and play sport. And older people are trapped in aged care or living alone and their grand children can’t visit. Another example of unconsious bias?

And guess when KK was born – 1968……. So perhaps TL’s greated contribution to diversity would have been her relative youthfulness? Guess we will never know as by the time she gets pre-selection in 10 years she will just be another 40 something year old back bencher.

Also my understanding (not being a member of a political party) is that the membership of the two major parties have an average age of somewhere in their 60s. This is because retired people generally have more time to spend on “other interests” rather than working to pay off a big mortgage and take the children to sport (although a lot of Grandparents are now conscripted to babysitting…). The consequence is that older people are pre-selected to be candidates as they are more likely to reflect the older person’s views (lower tax on superannuation and more funding for retirement homes) than younger people’s issues (child care and education and affordability of a home)……

Nimalen – your comments about the Vic Libs are spot on. More generally, with out actually looking at the back grounds of each Lib member of parliament, the Vic Libs have the least diversity of any opposition or government party in Australia compared to the constiuency that they have to win to form Governement. In particular, the party is incredibly “anglo-celtic” compared to the Melbourne demographics. The Vic Libs just don’t resonate with an incredibly diverse constituency and it is why Victoria has effectively been a one party state since 1999. The previous leader before Matthew Guy (born 1974) was Michael O’Brien (born 1971) who was born in Ireland (and moved here when he was very young) so I suppose he is an immigrant who has done good (at least on Keating’s view).

Anyway prediction time – KK to win preselection and be elected as member for Fowler at the next election. I do feel for TL and hope that she doesn’t “throw it in”.

Best

Pollster

Pollster
I don’t 100% agree that a lack of ‘diversity’ is at the heart of the Victorian Liberal Party’s electoral problems though it has to be said they don’t have someone with the background of a Gladys Berijiklian. They have definitely moved to the right and becomes less ‘broad church’ than they used to be – even since 2014. The big problem is that they have lost geographic ‘markets’ and failed to develop new ones. They lost seats in Ballarat, Bendigo and the Macedon region in 1999 and they lost seats in Cranbourne and Narre Warren in 2002 and have never won them back. They have also failed to move into the Melbourne growth areas such as the Western and parts of the Northern Suburbs. My view is that they are lazy and afraid to put in the hard work and if you can’t see the seat from Toorak, Kew or Brighton it is not worth fighting for.

KK trying to parachute into seats from Scotland Island is the biggest joke in politics since her period as Premier, where the prediction that she would be a puppet to Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi turned out to be 100% correct.

I’ve had to deal with her personally back up on the Northern Beaches, when she attempted to gate-crash the opening of a set of cricket nets in the local area because she was helping with Dean Harris’s campaign for Warringah (Dean Harris was on our committee and is a good man).

If this was any other seat, Labor would actually be at major risk of losing for such a blatant attempt at parachuting candidates. But this is Fowler. A narrow win.

If a well known independent such as Dai Le runs and gets preferences from the Liberals and the UAP, KK should be very worried about losing this seat.

My pick for largest swing against Labor.

Liberals seemed to have the edge in relevant local government areas. This seems to really fit the profile of a seat that votes Labor out of tradition rather than out of values alignment. In particular the high Christian Democrats vote and “no” vote in the plebiscite make me think Chris Hayes’ social conservatism might have been important for his margin. Parachuting Keneally in sends all the wrong messages and Labor might just leak enough vote to right wing micros to be under threat here.

Will Labor actually lose? I don’t think so, but I’d be keen to hear on the ground whether Liberals are actually trying once campaigning is in full swing.

Running candidates that do not represent the seat they are running in causes large swings against the offending party (Leicester East 2019 UK) so there will be a large swing against KK. The swing will be enough to give this it’s lowest margin ever (the previous record was 8.8% in 2010). Also it will only be 1-5 % more red than the national average.

Drama about KK hasn’t done Labor any good but she will be a good campaigner on the ground and work ethnic networks well. Last time there was a preselection drama here was 2010 when Hayes was a weaker candidate than KK and Gillard probably a drag on Labor’s vote. So I think if Labor does take a hit it will be much less than in 2010. Blue-collar manufacturing workers are still a strongly Labor tending group & there are lots of them here as well.

Interesting news this week that local Mayor Frank Carbone may run for Fowler

https://www.2gb.com/fairfield-mayor-hints-at-running-at-upcoming-federal-election/
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/frank-carbone-and-dai-le-could-team-up-to-thwart-kristina-keneally-in-fowler/news-story/40de9c96ded939ba90845750bae7f78e

If Carbone runs, he will win. Extremely
popular mayor who would use his Deputy, Dai Le’s Vietnamese network to campaign. Especially if the trade off is she becomes Mayor of Fairfield.

Keneally is campaigning the same way she did in Bennelong in 2017. Stale re-tread.
Albanese’s press conferences are also becoming more incoherent and slurred. Between him and Barnaby, I think ABC needs to add subtitles.

Dai Le would be a better candidate to be honest. It would also be a lot less disruptive if the Deputy Mayor ran instead of the Mayor, given the Mayor is directly elected, and Carbone would have to resign if elected.

@Ryan Dai is a better candidate in the sense of limiting disruption but Carbone has the personal appeal to actually win the seat, particularly with the elderly demographic of the seat

One additional note, neither have to give up their local government roles as Local Governments are not recognised in the Federal constitution.
The smart move would be for them to both run and hoard preferences, triangulate with the Libs and other minors/independents and essentially squeeze Keneally out of the running.
Also, they’d only have to give up the Mayoralty and Deputy Mayoralty if they won and even then wouldn’t have to. Even on a technicality a state Liberal government isn’t going to kick up a stink about dual office holding if it will be disadvantageous to a potential Labor MP.
From memory there was a Liberal MP a few years back who became Mayor whilst still serving in the Fed Parliament.
State Parliament candidacy would be a different story.

LJ Davidson, the example you refer to is Joanna Gash, she was elected Shoalhaven mayor whilst serving in her final year as member for Gilmore. Federal laws do not prohibit most local councillors from nominating whilst continuing to serve in office.

Thanks Yoh An.
Will be interesting in the future with the influx of OLC across metro Sydney councils and the potential of Federal Liberal-Lite candidates on the North Shore/inner city of this becomes the norm in consolidating power in these areas: Federal MP and Local Mayor.
Rather than the old paradigm of State MP and Local Mayor

I live in this seat. I remembered in 2010 there was a 14% swing against the ALP after the sitting MP retired and a Vietnamese local ran for the LNP in this seat. If the Cabra/Canley booths have a massive swing against the ALP like how they did in the 2010 election and the Edensor/Abbotsbury end of the electorate turns more blue, this would spell trouble for the ALP. The Vietnamese community are not too happy with KK being parachuted in, from what I have been hearing in the local Viet news. This seat will be an interesting seat to watch on election night.

Alex this is rock solid ALP. And Morrison is the most unpopular prime minister in history.

Rock solid 0% chance that the ALP lose this even under a 1975 or a 1996. Besides the seat WASNT even marginal even after that 2010 swing. Vietnamese community won’t vote for the LNP.

This will be safe Labor, Fowler covered much of Werriwa when Whitlam was MP and then PM.

‘Most unpopular PM in history’.

Just no. Morrison is not the most unpopular PM in history. That’s not me saying it, it’s an objective fact based on polling.

Wreathy, do you know where you got the polls showing historical PM approval ratings? I know in the US they do preserve historical presidential approval ratings.

Although Daniel might not be correct saying Morrison is the worst PM, I have a feeling he might be one of the top 5 or top 10 worst Prime Ministers on record.

This seat is definitely losable for Labor, just not the Libs.
If Carbone, Le or both enter the race, this becomes a difficult proposition for Keneally.
The independent phenomenon that has engulfed Sydney and Melbourne’s inner suburbs won’t be confined to going after one party’s safest seats going forward- especially if it pays off

What is going on in Fowler with independent candidates?

I haven’t been able to find any information on any independent candidate running on the web (admittedly not a very long or deep search) and this webpage does not list any non-party candidates. However, sports book has labor at $1.20 and an independent at $6.

If Dai Le ran (as speculated in the tele) she would have to give the seat a real shake. Any one who got within 3% of winning the state seat of Cabramatta and is on the local council would have to competitive against KK.

Anyone got any insights?

Yoh An, yes they can be quite difficult to soruce online. I believe Dr Bonham has a complete list floating around somewhere. I don’t know whether he’s ever made it completely available, but here’s a good article he wrote talking about the historical trends: https://tasmaniantimes.com/2011/09/when-both-leaders-are-loathed-a-polling-dynamics-history/.

Alternatively, the old Mumble website is an absolute treasure trove if you can be bothered to use the Wayback Machine.

The relationship between better PM scores/netstat and voting intention is very weak in Australia. For example, Keating led Howard on the former metric all throughout the 1996 campaign and still lost heavily.

Daniel, once again, you have completely misread the situation in a Sydney Seat. You need to start paying attention to what people are actually saying rather than resorting to your own confirmation bias.

This seat is vulnerable for a number of reasons:
1. Once again, we have seen a popularly-elected Liberal Mayor of Liverpool
2. The equivalent State Seats have experienced very solid swings over the last few years, both to Liberal and Independent Candidates, the latter, much more so.
3. The retirement of a fairly well-known local MP and replacement with the biggest excuse of a blown-in I have ever seen, especially one that will forever be known as the Premier that drove Labor to their worst EVER Performance in State History (Daniel, that is unequivocal fact).

Liberal Party won’t win this seat but if Carbone runs, I think he wins.

Just to update as well, things have just got worse for KK. She has tested positive for Covid and is now in isolation.

Carbone and Le are both keeping their powder dry at the moment, and have another week to decide.
More Albanese stuff-ups and they may enter the race. Just depends on momentum of both leaders.
Le and Carbone would be relying heavily on the OLC group that swept a lot of local governments across Sydney including Fairfield.
Last update was March 7

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/popular-mayor-plots-election-spoiler-to-thwart-kristina-keneally/news-story/e121834132206a98bd560ad6dee729fe?amp

Keneally is a vulnerable candidate. She may be a star performer in Parliament and on TV but she is not good on the hustings. 2011 State Election and 2017 Bennelong by-election come to mind.
I think with any seat Labor wins at a marginal level, you have to look at this as a 6 year proposition. Swings back or regulated swings can be even more vicious for incumbent first term governments.

Expecting Carbonne to get the sort of result that Climate 200 are hoping for in a good election year for Labor seems pretty farfetched. Sure I can see a pretty big swing against Labor, especially with Keneally as the candidate. But I don’t see Albo how forgetting a few figures is going to make any difference to the general election, no matter how desperately the media wants to make a story out of it, and I don’t see Keneally losing a seat that Labor won 64-36 on 2PP. 2025 might be a different story.

Furtive, I think you may be underestimating the local appeal of Carbone and other independent figures who hold similar roles in local government.

I agree more with LJ Davidson and others, as I spent most of my time in Sydney and can tell that local government plays a stronger role in creating these ‘splinter’ independent groups. LGA areas across Sydney are more of a microcosm and don’t feature strong partisan interest like Brisbane and SEQ. The focus areas are also smaller, more focussed on community connections rather than major service delivery seen in SEQ councils who do a lot more of the heavy lifting supporting the state government with things like infrastructure and transport.

@ Ben Raue – Courtney Nguyen seems to be the liberal candidate.

@ Hawkeye – thanks for the update re KK and covid

@ LJDavidson – thanks for the link to the article. I read it and ask why wouldn’t FC or DL run?

Cheers

Pollster

I’m not suggesting Carbonne doesn’t have local appeal. Obviously he does. I’m just saying that’s going to be hard to translate into a 14 point swing in a federal election, with a last minute candidacy, in the current political climate. I don’t doubt that he could be a very formidable candidate in 2025.

Fair enough point Furtive, as a last minute candidate Carbone would struggle to gather votes needed to gain a 10%+ swing compared to the other high profile independent candidates (Allegra Spender, Zoe Daniel, Kate Chaney etc) who announced their nominations months ago.

As much as I would love to see KK out of Parliament, it is going to be a massive ask for anyone to snatch this seat off Labor. I wouldn’t rule Carbone or Le taking this seat, but I would still have KK as a clear favourite to win it. The Liberals will not win this seat. Independents and minor parties seem to do better at council level than they do at the Federal level in Western Sydney, which is I would still have KK as favourite against Carbone or Le.

The big swing in 2010 happened with the backdrop of anti-Gillard sentiment in Western Sydney, anger at the knifing of Rudd. The boundaries were also a little less favourable to the Labor party, and it took in much of what is now the western part of Werriwa. Fowler as it is now is too strong of a Labor seat, and the anger at Labor simply not there anymore. A pity, because KK needs to be punted back to the private sector as soon as possible.

@Snickometer the 2010 boundaries were actually more favourable as when the 2015 redistribution occurred, the ALP 2013 margin dropped from 16.8% to 12.9%

If a good independent runs, it would not be inconceivable for the ALP vote to fall into the low 40’s. And they would be in trouble from there. The other thing is, as Bronwyn Bishop would testify, a big swing against a celebrity candidate – even if they do win – can do irreparable damage to reputation and career prospects.

Looks like Carbone and Le read our posts. Just annoucend they have teamed up. Le to be the candidate and Carbone to be the supporter.

Fowler just got a whole lot more interesting.

Have’t seen a Queen of Scotland (Island) in as much potential trouble since Mary Queen of Scotland and the political power plays (albeit through marriage than Labor HQ) didn’t end well….

Cheers,

Pollster

@ Pollster hopefully this finally give Keneally/Labor the message that many in NSW have expressed for years.
The logic of running an American in a large Vietnamese area was always ill-advised given the historical overtones.
Carbone’s endorsement and the guaranteed Liberal and independent preference flows puts Le in a good position.
I expect even Greens preferences won’t be reliable for Labor in the area.
Expect Fairfield Council to be pamphleting hard with residual good publicity for the Deputy Mayor.
Sussex Street now have to decide whether to waste resources sandbagging a safe seat, much like they had to do and will have to do with Chris Minns in Kogarah.
Or leave her to the lions and attempt to win seats in Western Sydney.
Would be ironic if a seat like Reid is forfeited by Labor because of a diversion of funds/resources.

I believe the local Labor branch may simply refuse to campaign for Keneally like how some of the Reid Liberal branches refuse to campaign for Fiona Martin. That would spell even more trouble for Keneally.

Wonderful news! Wishing Le and Carbone all the best.

@John Smith this is potentially worse for Labor than it is for the Libs in Reid.
In Reid the Maronite segment of the Liberal membership isn’t as large as the Vietnamese membership of the Fowler Labor branches.
Carbone has proven through successful Mayoral campaigns, his capacity as an ex Labor mayor of peeling away and consolidating large parts of the Italian demographic from Labor.
With Le, she already has connections with the Liberal party being a former member but the animosity between her and the party, I believe will be put aside in order for the Libs to punish Labor.
Le will also capitalise on the treatment of Tu Le by Labor HQ, and the Greens which is the only lifeline for Labor in the area, will be split due to various reasons, most significantly the way Keneally was gifted the nomination.
It will be difficult for Labor to also articulate a message about multiculturalism and local investment when they pushed aside and ignored a significant representative of one of the larger demographics in the area.
Back to numbers though, Dai Le, I think will get the majority of all the other 3rd parties in the area.
She’ll also erode the Labor primary vote, maybe not largely but anywhere between 5-15% which is fatal.
That would mean Keneally would need to rely solely on the Greens to get her across the line. Which is not that strong in this area and I think will break anywhere between 70/30 to 60/40 to KK.
Le is now an independent and not a Liberal, which gives her even broader appeal. Throw in the resources, network of an extremely popular Mayor- this will probably be one of the most talked about seats of the night.
It could be one of the reasons Albanese leads a minority government and not a majority.

For the first time in Fowler’s undistinguished history, it has a contest. As a long-time observer of politics in the Fairfield-Liverpool area, it is most welcome.

I’m not writing off Keneally and Labor yet. There’s still a substantial portion of Liverpool in the electorate that the Le/Carbone ticket is not fundamentally familiar with at electoral level. In a tight campaign, that could be the difference between winning and losing. Le and Carbone do not have the local visibility in Liverpool that they have in Fairfield. They need to campaign hard there to win, especially considering the Green Valley suburbs are in Werriwa. Should they come back to Fowler in 2025, there will be no second chance for an independent.

After that, it gets interesting. Le has never replicated the historic performance of 2008 and 2011 in Cabramatta in subsequent campaigns. Indeed, the Liberal Party in 2011 should have won Cabramatta hoovering support away from the Serbian strongholds of Nick Lalich around Bonnyrigg, but oddly not polling anywhere near as well around Cabramatta which was Le’s strong areas in 2008.

While the circumstances are different this time, I actually feel that Le should not be presumed to gain strong support in and around Cabramatta. I do think Carbone’s support will see a definite swing in the west of the electorate ala 2011 Cabramatta, and might prove crucial in the Carramar and Fairfield East part of the electorate.

There is no denying that the Fairfield and Liverpool Labor parties are in the worst positions they have ever been in. They do not have the mayoralties of the two councils. Chris Bowen was under serious pressure to retain McMahon in 2013, while Laurie Ferguson also retained Werriwa despite predictions of losing it. They don’t hold Holsworthy or Hughes at state or federal level. Fairfield and Cabramatta were nearly lost in the 2011 NSW Election, while Smithfield, now Prospect, was lost. It’s been clear that since 2008 in the Fairfield area, and perhaps the Oasis scandal of 2004 in Liverpool, the automatic Labor voting tendencies have changed, possibly, for good. I dare say that will probably be the reason Paul Lynch will keep on going in Liverpool for as long as possible to stop Ned Mannoun from winning that seat in the short to medium term.

The primary votes for Labor at both recent council elections were anaemic, particularly in Fairfield where Carbone belted the Labor candidate, George Barcha.

One should also not presume the Liberals will preference Le. Le has had a fractious history with the Liberal Party, and the Fairfield and Liverpool Liberal parties wouldn’t be falling over themselves to assist Le in any way, shape or form.

By doing this, Carbone has ruined any chances of a reconciliation between himself and Labor. In my view, Carbone is very much a populist mayor of Fairfield, and part of the greater cabal on all sides of Fairfield politics which has existed since at least the early 1990’s. His actions here are very much self-serving and should be seen as possibly a proxy for a run at McMahon when Chris Bowen retires. The sad irony here is that he was probably the best Labor person outside of state or federal politics in the area, and would have been a natural successor for Bowen.

The Green vote has never been particularly strong in Fairfield or Liverpool. If the vote of 2019 is repeated from the Greens, anything less than 44% of the primary vote from Keneally spells trouble for Labor

@DJH I’d say that Fairfield Council more or less mirrors Fowler with the exception of the South East part of the electorate: Liverpool, Warwick Farm and Chipping Norton.
Dai ran both wards in the Council and managed to get candidates elected in both wards under her name.
I think preferences, ironic for Labor, will actually cause Keneally to fall.
Majority of Lib voters will preference a moderate Independent over Labor and Greens. The other minors may very well preference Labor over Libs but that will be so far down the ticket and I think Dai receives those voters earlier preferences before the majors get to them.
This is definitely not a Liberal area and she has over performed in state elections despite having the Liberal name attached.
Is Keneally the Sophia Mirabella of the 2022 election? Divisive and unpopular figure accused of having toxic dealings in parliament.
Opposition party wins office but loses a high profile front bencher.
Re: Carbone ruining reconciliation with Labor- it was Labor that burned that bridge when they pushed him out and then came crawling back when they saw the decline in branch membership since he left.
Bowen works the Assyrian branches well but will pull up stumps along with Burke if Labor lose this election.
And Carbone doesn’t really have Federal aspirations, he has always been a local and state guy.
You’d be looking at Hugh McDermott as the person who would want Bowen’s job. He won’t get it but his control of the Bossley Park and Wetherill Park branches has been masterful.
Really Labor should’ve turfed Bowen a long time ago. He brings nothing to the table and has all the charisma and personality of a cardboard box.
He pissed off so many people in the Health industry, particularly the Colleges with his arrogance and dismissiveness that had to move him to Environment because he pissed and whinged. Butler is a bit better but not by much.
Why would Carbone want to reconcile with the party when he has proven he can win elections comfortably on his own and not beholden to anyone? Also now potentially can extend his reach to the Federal sphere.
I think this is a good thing just like the Voice of Karens in the inner city seats

LJ Davidson, do you see OLC and these independent groups who dominate Western Sydney councils the conservative analogue of the Voices movement (i.e. disaffected Labor members forming their own splinter group vs disaffected Liberals doing the same).

I don’t think there’s much of a parallel with Voices and OLC. OLC have won most of their seats thanks to the Liberals withdrawing, and while some are disaffected Labor people, others are very much on the right. In Parramatta they are the right-wing major party in the absence of Liberals.