LIB 14.6%
Incumbent MP
Nola Marino, since 2007.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-western corner of Western Australia. Forrest covers the towns of Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. Forrest is made up of Augusta-Margaret River, Bunbury, Busselton, Capel, Dardanup, Donnybrook-Balingup and Harvey council areas.
Redistribution
Forrest lost the Nannup council area to O’Connor.
History
Forrest was created for the 1922 election. It has been held predominantly by conservative parties, first by the Country Party before the Second World War and then the Liberal Party. It has only been won by the ALP at three elections.
John Prowse won Forrest in 1922 for the Country Party. Prowse had won the seat of Swan in 1919, before moving to the new seat in 1922. Prowse held the seat for two decades, until his defeat in 1943.
The ALP’s Nelson Lemmon won Forrest in 1943. He was re-elected in 1946, and was then appointed Minister for Works and Housing in the Chifley government, and he was responsible for the commencement of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. He lost Forrest in 1949.
The Liberal Party’s Gordon Freeth won Forrest in 1949. He was appointed to the Menzies government’s ministry in 1958, and served as a minister continuously until his defeat in 1969, when Forrest was won by the ALP’s Frank Kirwan.
Kirwan lost in 1972, going against the trend which saw the Whitlam government end 23 years of Liberal rule. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Peter Drummond. Drummond held the seat until his retirement in 1987.
Geoff Prosser won Forrest in 1987. He joined the Liberal frontbench in 1990, and was appointed as a minister in the Howard government after the 1996 election. He only lasted until 1997, when he was forced to resign due to breaches of the code of conduct. He served as a backbencher until his retirement in 2007.
Nola Marino was elected in 2007, and re-elected four times.
Assessment
Forrest is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nola Marino | Liberal | 47,470 | 52.5 | +3.0 | 52.5 |
| Wayne Sanford | Labor | 19,126 | 21.1 | -2.0 | 21.2 |
| Nerilee Boshammer | Greens | 11,645 | 12.9 | +0.9 | 12.8 |
| Kalven Wayne Jamieson | One Nation | 5,371 | 5.9 | +5.9 | 6.0 |
| Mark Mccall | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 2,881 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 3.2 |
| Dale Geoffrey Bromley | United Australia Party | 1,564 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.7 |
| Alexander Marsden | Independent | 1,238 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.4 |
| Ian Bruce Molyneux | Western Australia Party | 1,167 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| Informal | 5,418 | 5.7 | -0.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Nola Marino | Liberal | 58,405 | 64.6 | +2.0 | 64.6 |
| Wayne Sanford | Labor | 32,057 | 35.4 | -2.0 | 35.4 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Bunbury, Busselton and Harvey local government areas have been divided along council lines, with the remainder of the electorate split into “South” and “Central”.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 54.5% in the south to 67.5% in the centre.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.2% in the north to 28.1% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.4 | 67.5 | 14,618 | 16.3 |
| Bunbury | 12.6 | 58.4 | 11,413 | 12.7 |
| Busselton | 15.7 | 66.9 | 10,934 | 12.2 |
| North | 8.2 | 65.7 | 10,910 | 12.2 |
| South | 28.1 | 54.5 | 5,215 | 5.8 |
| Pre-poll | 11.6 | 66.8 | 25,600 | 28.6 |
| Other votes | 12.9 | 66.4 | 10,904 | 12.2 |
Election results in Forrest at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Amazing that one of the most conservative areas in the country at all levels of government has its own Greens stronghold, around Margaret River and Yallingup.
You are correct, Wilson. I imagine this as sea change country, but I haven’t visited this area for over 20 years. Either way, those are astonishingly strong booths for the Greens; the sorts of results I’d expect in inner city suburbs. I wonder if this area is pointing to a trend that will appear in other lifestyle areas now that COVID-19 has made remote working more common….
Nola Marino has announced her retirement at the next election and former senator Ben Small has emerged as an early frontrunner.
If Marino retired in 2022 this seat likely would have flipped. IIRC on Senate results, it did
Could still flip if you have Labor working Bunbury working class, Greens working Margaret River sea/tree changers and teals the small-l Liberal base. Labor winning Warren Blackwood in 2021 probably puts them in the best position to come out on top of those 3.
John with the current polling figures showing a weakening of the Labor vote both at the state and national levels, I believe the Liberals are still heavily favoured to retain this seat even with Ms Marino’s retirement and will likely gain a swing of several percent to restore it back to a safe seat.
@yoh an and id imagine most if not all of those other 4 gains will swing back to the libs
Agree 2nd John, I think the seat of Tangney is the most vulnerable and is likely to be lost given its narrow margin and the fact it is traditionally a safe Liberal seat that Labor has rarely held in the past.
I think the other three seats (Pearce, Hasluck and Swan) are definitely salvageable for Labor. Of those, I think Pearce and Hasluck are the most secure given that the Northern suburbs of Perth (in the Wanneroo and Ellenbrook areas) are now trending Labor as they form part of the ‘growth’ suburbs.
@John I suspect state Labor’s native logging ban has destroyed much of their goodwill in Warren Blackwood, however the only notable overlap Forrest has with it is Margret River which is likely very supportive of the ban.
@ Yohn An, i think Swan is most secure for Labor of the gains. It has a Teal area in South Perth that would be hostile to Dutton and the Eastern working class part is quite diverse and has a lot of Muslims. Many Muslims may swing against Labor but will go to Greens so no real change in TPP.
Fair point Nimalan as the district of Swan covers many Labor leaning suburbs including Victoria Park, Belmont and Cannington which are all contained in state seats that are safe for Labor.
In contrast, some of the northern suburbs in the Swan Hills and Joondalup areas are contained in Liberal leaning state districts.
Agree Yoh An, Pearce and Hasluck are mortgage belt areas that can swing violently especially on issues such as interest rates. The state seats of Swan Hills and Joondulup are swing seats unlike the Eastern industrial areas of Swan.
hasluck will bite off parts of tangey canning swan burt and possibly oconnor in order to make way for the new division id say hasluck is a liberal gain
Ben Small is confirmed as the Liberal candidate.
Kate Chaney recently spoke at a Voices for Forrest event to rally some troops. I think 2022 would’ve been a much better year to field a teal/Voices candidate. They’ve missed the boat.
@votante no way they would have won it. the teals only really exist in the wealthy inner city seats. kate chaney will be lucky to hold on after the correction coming wa.
Libs were at a low ebb in 2022 and from memory Labor carried the 2PP in many senate seats that they didn’t win in the lower house (not sure if Forrest was one of them). Plus the seat has strong veins of Green support and Labor can do well in Bunbury with effort. All of which could coalesce behind a teal
But probably too late now.
@John I agree Curtin is the most likely teal loss.
@John (other John) no but there were seats where the Coalition had the highest Senate vote but not the highest House vote. Examples include Dobell, Kennedy, Lingiari, Paterson, Reid, Richmond and even Macnamara (obviously a split in the Labor-Greens vote which is traditionally what happens in the House elections in Macnamara and it also happened a lot in its predecessor, Melbourne Ports, but that seems to be changing). Remember Labor hasn’t won a majority of seats in the Senate since 1983 and they haven’t even won a plurality of the vote in the Senate since 2007.
Interestingly, here are the states where the Coalition won a plurality in the Senate at each election this century:
* 2001: nationwide; NSW, VIC, QLD, WA, SA, TAS and the NT
* 2004: nationwide; NSW, VIC, QLD, WA, SA, TAS and the NT
* 2007: QLD and WA
* 2010: nationwide; NSW, QLD, WA and the NT
* 2013: nationwide; NSW, VIC, QLD, WA, SA, TAS and the NT
* 2016: nationwide; NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and SA
* 2019: nationwide; NSW, VIC, QLD, WA, SA and TAS
* 2022: nationwide; NSW, VIC, QLD, SA and TAS
@NP i think Monique ryan is vunerable too plus the libs ahve a good candidate the others will probably survive although there will be one loss in NSW either tink in North Sydney or stegall or spender if they get combined due to the redistribution occuring prior to it being finished and becoming warringah-wentworth. that could be interesting especially f it finishes being IND v IND in wich ase i think liberal preferences would go to spender
though if it were a combined division the liberals could win due to having a combied vote