Flynn – Australia 2022

Today s OZ
Labor’s candidate for the federal seat of Flynn has called for the Palaszczuk government to approve stage three of the New Acland mine expansion.

Gladstone mayor Matt Burnett is considered one of the party’s best hopes to win a Queensland seat from the ­Coalition.

He has joined some of his would-be colleagues, including Blair MP Shayne Neumann and Senator Anthony Chisholm, in calling for the Queensland Premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, to hasten the approval process for the mine.

They still won’t win this seat. Mike Brunker couldn’t win in Burdekin despite being pro-mining, It doesn’t matter on the candidates the party itself is the problem because people usually vote on national policies rather than candidate qualities. A vote for Burnett is a vote for Albo

The LNP will probably get a tiny swing against them 1-2% because of the retiring member plus Zach Beers being a poor Labor candidate. But I still think this stays in LNP hands and quite handsomely if you asked me.

Labor will not flip any seats north of the sunshine coast except for Leichhardt should Entsch retire and I think he could because of his age.

Daniel
No arguments from me. There is a possibility that there will be a continuance of the coal worker /seat bile against Labor. Perhaps a further swing of say 5%. Perhaps they (still) might fell unheard, unseen, unnoticed etc ?.
Labor seem to think that BS, & some tax policies , oh & a lack of comprehension (on the part of voters) were the reason the libs won…! Maybe they are right ?
Noel Pearson could take Leichardt standing as an indie or for any party. It may very interesting to see the personal vote of Entsch crystallised.
why do you see Zac Beers as a poor candidate ?

The issue with this seat is that in 2016 Election Labor got close 1.04% margin based on a good proportion of One Nation preferences. Labor’s primary was 33%. In the 2019 election Labor’s primary was 28% and they then lost the One Nation preference flow. The questions will be for the next election:

1. Will One Nation get 19.6%?
2. If One Nation fall – were will the vote go?
3. What was the incumbent’s personal vote like?
4. Will One Nation’s preferences flow Labor or LNP – hasn’t Hanson said she likes Albanese but not Morrison?

I suspect it will be close

State MP for Callide Colin Boyce has won the LNP preselection for the seat of Flynn. I’m wondering how much risk there is in doing this with voters knowing that electing Boyce will cause a bye-election in the state seat of Callide.

I still think the LNP will be favorites though. The regional seats in North and Central Queensland have been pretty determined to continue vote Labor state and LNP federal in recent elections. Courier Mail has reported this is one of the more vulnerable seats for the LNP though.

“The seat is held by the LNP with an 8.7 per cent margin.

But it is considered one of Labor’s strongest chances in Queensland at the next election, with an inflated preference flow at the last poll boosting the two-party preferred result.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/lnp-backs-colin-boyce-to-replace-the-bulldog-ken-odowd-in-flynn/news-story/837a913dca31d60e2e966d26b098448a

A Callide by election could give Katter or One Nation an opportunity to win a seat from the state opposition damaging their prospects of winning state government further. It is a risky gamble and Boyce seems to be seeking opportunism

The state LNP would benefit if Boyce stayed so if they lose this seat and possibly the election an Albanese premiership could cause the LNP to win in 2024. The coalition has not won a QLD state election while the federal government was also the coalition since 1980.

Still no change from my prediction of an LNP hold though

Boyce will have to resign before the close of nominations, as it is prohibited to be a member of state parliament and a candidate for federal parliament simultaneously. So there will be a Callide by-election anyway.

Would Boyce sit with the Nationals or Liberals if elected? I can’t see him supporting Barnaby Joyce.

Daniel
Boyce will sit with the Nationals. Better chances for ministerial advancement in the future. Remember St Paul’s pronouncement on equine “self interest”

How hilarious was it to see an incredibly awkward Albo visit this week !?. Even went down a coal mine !. His message needed to be clear, direct & forceful. Acknowledging Labor’s previous failures. WELL…….!
You have to ask why he bothered, & who is advising him ?
After this debacle i wonder what Fitzy is saying to him about visits to the Hunter ? Oh that’s right, those two don’t communicate privately!

@NQ View

You are right he does have to resign his state seat to contest Flynn. But the way Courier Mail wrote the article with the sentence below makes it seem he like doesn’t have to.

“It will cause a by-election in his current state seat of Callide if he wins at the next Federal election.”

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/lnp-backs-colin-boyce-to-replace-the-bulldog-ken-odowd-in-flynn/news-story/837a913dca31d60e2e966d26b098448a

@Daniel

Boyce will seat with the Nationals. That’s what would have been the agreement to contest the pre-selection. He won’t change whether he like’s Barnaby Joyce or not. There would be even Liberals reluctant to accept Boyce in the Liberals because the instability it would cause in the LNP.

I also remember reading it was reported Boyce was dissatisfied with his role in state politics not receiving a shadow portfolio which was part of the reason behind him defecting to federal politics.

“BJA from Ryan October 3, 2021 at 2:49 pm
I really think all that will happen in QLD is a straight swap of Flynn & Lilley.

Will have to look elsewhere for any change to happen on election night.”

This is a mystifying prediction. Instinctively Flynn appears to be trending strongly towards the LNP. Surely Labor’s continuing confusion (if not duplicity) toward mining can’t be ignored. It would be surprising to see even a reduction in the 8.7 % margin

Share scepticism about Labor’s chances here. But it has swung much less relative to state than Capricornia or Dawson & maybe more of a Labor vote potential in Gladstone? Worth a try but still a long shot.

The strong personal vote of the previous member will have been lost and while the Coalition candidate is the state member for Callide who has forsaken his parliamentary seat he is a climate change sceptic. While that might go down well in the rural parts of this big electorate it could go against him in the main voting area of Gladstone. The Labor candidate, the mayor of Gladstone is one of Labor’s better candidates and has a strong personal presence in Gladstone. If Labor can promote the idea that they are better placed to secure jobs in renewable energy to miners concerned about the future then they have a strong chance of claiming this seat.

@winediamond
I just found that you copied my comment here

That was my thoughts at the time because I didn’t think Ken O’Dowd had a personal vote but as per my later comment:
“BJA from Ryan January 7, 2022 at 7:30 am
Certainly expecting swings back to Labor, each of the 3 seats just have unique circumstances:
Capricornia – quality of incumbent will I think withstand any swing to Labor
Dawson – has had a high profile incumbent & the new LNP candidate is a local mayor. I know nothing of the Labor candidate.
Flynn is different – has had a low profile incumbent but Labor has the local mayor (of Gladstone) as candidate. Unsure how the new State MP candidate compares with the incumbent in order to complete. If this seat is given away on election night based on swings in Gladstone, only to come back on postals again for the 3rd time, I would be surprised.”

Regrettably, I am thinking now that Lilley may not flip. Blair probably is more likely but I’m not sure where there is anymore LNP vote to be gained. Unfortunately, both probably require voters to be convinced to vote LNP rather than erring LNP voters required to come back.

BJA from Ryan
The only seat LIKELY to flip is Blair. LNP insiders are nervy about Brisbane, however Longman appears more vulnerable IMV. QLD is likely to be a pretty big non -event.
cheers wd

John T, I don’t think Ken O’Dowd had much of a personal vote…about as low profile as you can get. WRT to the rest of your analysis, I don’t know whether even that balancing act will help Labor much anymore. In my opinion, we are seeing a post-class realignment which is changing the fundamental structure of voting patterns – just like the UK and USA. Adani was a symptom, not the cause of the swing to the LNP in these areas in 2019.

Agree with you Winediamond. Personally, I think the real action is going to be in NSW and perhaps to a lesser extent WA. Even though I think Labor could (at best) achieve up to a 7% swing in WA, not many seats will change hands. In NSW, I think Labor are on the defensive in at least 10 seats – that’s without even mentioning all the marginal seats the Libs need to defend here!

Wreathy of Sydney
Instinctively WA will prove anti climactic IMV. 5% tops which = Swan, & Pearce. But a lot can change. May i have a crack at the 10 seats Maquarie, Gilmore, Dobell, Parramatta, Hunter, Shortland, E-M, Greenway, thats only 8 . You couldn’t be serious about more surely ? At this stage Labor are only likely to lose 2 IMV.
The biggest election issue is the conceit of Albanese which leads to his inability to inspire voters to vote FOR him. He seems to believe that he can win by convincing voters just to vote against Morrison, & that will do. That he himself is adequate or more, when he is so clearly less (than adequate) . The contrast with John Howard is telling. JWH had the awareness to recognise his inadequacies , & the humility to attempt to . compensate for them .
cheers wd

Precisely @ winediamond. I think the biggest elephant in the room not being discussed is Albo’s lack of cut-through.
Yes, many dislike Morrison but just like NSW/Perrottet one really knows or is interested in the opposition.
Morrison is in many ways turning into a pseudo George W Bush (c.2000) and Stephen Harper, where there is contempt for him within pockets of the electorate but voters are weary of what the opposition would do differently.
ScoMo’s base is also solid, and he’s made in-roads into perceivably locked-in Labor voters.
Albo would also be receiving the same health advice, would have the same economic forecasts, etc.. So voters have been asking so what would you have done differently?
His press conferences are shockers, he sounds half-tanked in most of them. Noticeably, he is much more likeable than Shorten, however there is a hesitancy to take him seriously.
I think there is a deep cynicism in the electorate, and also weariness of the high turnover of PMs from the last decade. Stability as evidenced in the recent state elections, seems to be a consistent throughout the country.
Morrison may still lose the election, however I don’t think this is a certainty. Given the Liberals for replacing leaders this may also be another option to thwart Labor yet again.
Albo comes across as a Kim Beazley, he says most of the right things but something is missing. No doubt Labor will bleed votes to independents, Greens and minor parties who would rather have a strong representative on the cross-bench than another number in either government or opposition.

Winediamond, I’d add Hasluck as possibly at risk though Wyatt could potentially withstand the tide. That said, I’m also very skeptical that the swing in WA will eventuate. For one, predictions of a big swing have been made for at least the last two elections and nothing much has happened. Second, once WA opens up (which McGowan has committed to doing in early February), Omicron will run rampant just like it has everywhere else. Presumably the lustre of McGowan’s Covid-zero strategy will lose some of its appeal by then.

I’m not too familiar with what people outside Sydney are feeling, but there are some mumurs on this site that Richmond could also be at risk. In addition, Paterson ought to be lumped in as an (unlikely but possible) target given its demographics and location. Agreed, the Libs will not win anywhere near the total 10, but a maximum of 3 – 4 is not out of the question and targeting most of these seats puts the ALP on the defensive. In my opinion, the seats with the strongest chance of flipping are Hunter, Gilmore and Macquarie. With the way Covid is going, it’ll be fascinating to examine the trends by age and in different parts of the country. I’m still sticking to the argument that NSW will swing to the Libs.

Wreathy of Sydney
Thanks for the reply. Yeah i guessed that your thinking was along these lines. I don’t disagree. Wyatt’s result in 2019 was so strong i can’t see it being totally reversed, it’s just too improbable.
Likewise Merryl Swanston is so formidable i can’t see her succumbing to the Hunter “virus’!. Richmond will be interesting but there isn’t enough impetus from the Tweed to endanger Labor –YET. Green pretensions will remain- pretensions.

The big question is what happens with all that (anti labor) momentum in Labor seats. If that momentum still has force then seats like Dobell, Shortland, & Greenway are exposed. Even seats like McMahon, & Werriwa will become more marginal. This would constitute evidence of the decimation of the Labor base vote. Perhaps even a permanent power shift. In short this election may end up causing more damage to Labor than the coalition even if they eliminate the govt majority.
Instinctively i sense that you are correct in the view that “NSW will swing to the Libs.”
cheers wd

LJ Davidson
Yeah i pretty much agree with everything that you have said. I strongly disagree about NSW & Chris Minns who is doing a great job of NOT saying or doing anything stupid ! If he (Minns) were leading federal Labor, Scomo would presently be suffering from acute terminal dysentery !

Perhaps comparing Albo & Beazley is unfair ?. Beazley was an intellectual giant, whereas Albo is more a pygmy, with pretensions of height !. There are similarities however with a lack of impact or force. If Albo has genuinely challenged the govt with policy, or direction i must have missed it. Therefore the proposition must be made that having comprehensively failed in opposition, how could anyone think he’d do better in government ?

More likely he will go the way of the previous 2 Labor PM’s & be shafted before he even has to face the people. Still personally i’m content to anticipate the misery, regret, & shame of al those that choose to endorse such a woeful excuse for a leader.
CHEERS wd

Winediamond, I’m in WA, the lustre of covid zero is as strong as ever, it’s the reopening that isn’t wanted.

With respect wine diamond I disagree with your view of Anthony Albanese. He is not conceited if anything he lacks a bit of “mongrel” and needs if anything to become more forceful at times. For those of us who know him personally, he is a genuinely a nice human being for a politician who is keen in this election not to be wedged on issues as Shorten was. As opportunities present themselves he is improving his appeal to Australian voters as Scott Morrison is losing his. While Morrison believes he is his party’s best chance, his posturing may well be his undoing. I wonder Winediamond again with respect how well do you really know Anthony Albanese or is it driven by political sentiment?

John T
Thanks for your thoughtful questions. I’ll do my best.
1/ We see what we see. My observations are weighed through the enneagram
2/ Albo’s conceit is as i said is that he obviously believes he is up to the job. Morrison has vanity as his egoic passion. We all have one. Mine is sloth.
3/ Your absolutely correct Albo does lack forcefulness . That is because when he is stressed he moves to a place where he becomes shallow, vacuous, reckless, & starts saying glib facile, gobbledegook , thinking that will get him to a happier place, or at least SOUND credible ! This is textbook behaviour for his personality type. If he could understand himself & have the humility to grasp how he gives away his own power then he might actually achieve something. Maybe he could even challenge a far from impressive PM INSTEAD OF WHINGING ABOUT HIM.
Albo is so spectacularly ineffectual that he can’t even irritate the PM, let alone get him angry, & that is a far from difficult task ! Given the chance i’d give the PM a seizure within 5 minutes ! Trust me !

If you do know him personally tell him to start studying the enneagram or just to call me. Obviously all his advisors are completely useless, & he lacks the sense to see them as such !.
As you say he won’t be wedged. To be wedged someone needs to stand for something, or take a position.
The “appeal” of both leaders is highly debatable, dubious even.. The sad reality is a choice between atrocious, & inadequate at best. Hardly inspiring, or “appealing” !
Whilst the PM might be held in low regard, Is Albo held in any regard at all ? Why should anyone admire him much ?
He has held the second softest portfolio – Infrastructure. Only Foreign affairs is easier, or less challenging !. Has he tried something tough like Defence, treasury , vet affairs, finance ?. No he isn’t up to it, and he never was, or will be. The only reason he got the job was “seniority” which is entitlement (in another form) from being a time -server. The worst reason possible. Most of the worst leaders & commanders in history have risen thus. If ,& it’s an unbelievable if, he was any good Albo would be Einstein, but he was an intellectual not a leader same as Albo , but that will take another century of lifetimes. If he were great he’d be Thomas Jefferson.
If the PM was any good he’d be Hawke, if he was great he’d be JFK. That would take a thousand lifetimes !
So i reckon i know both men better than they know themselves which really isn’t that hard. Neither are very complex, nor evolved. In any case Mrs WD is far better at enneagram typing than i am !

I despise sentimentality as a weakness. So I don’t have a “political sentiment” I simply
love my country & my people. If you sense anger from me you couldn’t be more mistaken i’m outraged that the Labor party could dare to offer such an obviously limited, & substandard candidate who has already comprehensively failed to challenge a deeply flawed govt, in any way reform his party ,or replace well proven failed colleagues.
Albanese is thus almost equally complicit in every failure of this govt, & so is the entire opposition.
FWIW i’m even less happy with the liberal party. I’ll get to that on the Cook thread
cheers wd
PS i’m still underway on replying to your post on the Rankin thread

Marie
Enjoy it while it lasts

Brooke Vitnell is a big chance in Paterson. A rare example of a glamour candidate.

Why are people posting about Paterson here? Please stay on topic.

Labor paying $1.85 to win on Sportsbet, Coalition $1.87. It seems Labor have picked a good candidate, making this seat a real contest despite the high margin.

Thanks for your reply winediamond with the reasons for your views. You make mention of Albo resorting to goobledegook. I believe we are increasingly seeing shallowness replacing depth and personalities replacing policies on all sides of politics. Look at Morrison’s favourite saying, ‘If you have a go, you get a go”. It seems profound, but it’s a half baked idea removed from reality. He’s saying if you don’t succeed it’s your fault and that responsibility lies with individuals not society, not government and not leaders. January 2022 has been a terrible month for Morrison and the Federal government and while there is a way to go to the election, I believe as shown by the latest polling that Albo will be our next PM.

Like the premier’s push through another inane platitude

I know the UAP has suggested they will preference all sitting members last on how to vote cards with a few exceptions. Technically, there won’t be a sitting member here. However, because the LNP hold the seat the UAP may still preference them last.

I’m skeptical if the UAP will go through it. Clive Palmers still has links with the LNP and admitted directing all his attacks against Labor halfway through the last campaign to stop Labor getting elected. But for the LNP its still a worry in a marginal seat such as this that they may not get a free lunch from Palmer this time.

Craig Kelly has signalled the United Australia party could throw a political lifeline to incumbent MPs prepared to break ranks and support two new private members bills he will bring forward during the final sitting weeks of parliament.

The UAP plans to put all sitting members of parliament last on its how-to-vote cards in the coming federal election – a strategy prompting significant anxiety among Morrison government MPs, given the Coalition was the primary beneficiary of preference flows in the 2019 election.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/craig-kelly-floats-preference-offer-for-liberal-mps-who-break-ranks-in-parliament?fbclid=IwAR2Y0Zm1QJtXIz6GXk5stnBANz7d7R5dxHlFZeSpGLo-CnNw2VfNRrhMQPs

Personally not surprised with the seat poll here unlike other seats. These regional coal seats really haven’t forgiven Labor all that much and the swings we saw here last time were nothing to do with the local members (The local member is unpopular I believe) but most voters didn’t seem to care and instead were more interested in punishing Labor for their stance on their No.1 issue, Jobs.

On current polling I would suspect a tiny swing to Labor which would still make this seat relatively safe but in no way will this become marginal until Labor radically change.

The coalition being more conservative tends to help them more in these regionals than moderate however what we happening to the great barrier reef with climate change. This could be short lived.

Labor has a better shot in Herbert which went Labor at the state election rather than this (Didn’t seats like Mirani and Burdekin swing to the conservative aligned parties?) and the disappointing result for Labor in Whitsunday despite all the noise there last time.

But remember anything can change. These seats were safe after the 2004 election (although Flynn didn’t exist) Dawson certainly did which was on a 14% margin I believe.

I agree with some of the earlier comments on this thread from winediamond, in that I suspect that contrary to popular belief the anti-Labor trend should continue in seats like Flynn, Capricornia, and Dawson, rather than reverse. Some political realities don’t last forever, and these kinds of areas being strong for the ALP certainly won’t. You see areas like this, highly dependent on coal mining trending away from the left around the world, while more leafy inner city areas trend away from the right. I wouldn’t expect this trend to cease unless another Turnbull figure leads the Liberals. (Which probably won’t happen ever again.)

The wild card in Flynn, Dawson, Herbert and Capricornia is how high is the for the various right wing parties -ON, UAP, KAP- and where their preferences go. In 2019, the combined votes for the right were well over 20% – mainly coming from Labor. There is nothing to say that they will be much lower this time – the preferences will be the key.

I think we are going to see a swing back from right-wing preferences to Labor. We saw it in the QLD state election, PHON preferences returned to Labor and helped Palascuk, I think we will see the same phenomenon in QLD federally.

Sprout you may be correct in your statewide belief ,but there are only 3 candidates in Flynn. Labor, the LNP and the UAP. Given that Colin Boyce of the LNP is a declared climate sceptic I would expect that he will receive the bulk of UAP preferences.

Are ON really not gonna run in this seat? surely they will for their senate vote considering they got nearly 20% PV here

@Xenu, I do expect ON will be running a candidate in this seat. Their stated intention last week was to run in every seat in the country. My guess is that in seats they perceive they have good prospects for first preference votes, like this one, they are taking longer to deliberate on their strategy and candidate.

In QLD seats like this there is more likely to be higher party membership and subsequent competition internally as part of their selection process. This will take longer to resolve. Whereas in other seats, interstate for example, there might only be one person putting their hand up to stand as a candidate.

ON might also be working on making the announcement of candidates for high prospect seats more impactful than a simple social post, press release or web content change.

Of course, mismanagement might also be on the cards. Selecting a candidate so late limits the amount of campaigning that a candidate can do before Election Day. They are missing out on valuable time they could be increasing their visibility in the community and that’s without even mentioning all of the materials like posters, billboards, etc that take a while to go to production.

Please I beg of you use some common sense when assuming the incomplete candidate list is complete. Labor, Coalition, Greens, probably UAP will everywhere. I don’t update these lists every day so it’s possible some more have been announced. We just need to wait 2 more days.

Xenu ,there is no One Nation candidate in Flynn. It doesn’t matter because voters vote separately for the Senate.One Nation only have one notion in Queensland and that is to get Pauline Hanson returned as a Senator.

At a State level Boyce had no Katter, One Nation or UAP candidate run against him last election. He has crossed the floor to support Katter and One Nation legislation. As a result they left him alone. I would not be surprised at all in One Nation do not run here. Katter certainly will leave it alone.

You make a good point that I forgot to mention @John T. Combining that with one of the points I made, it is not necessarily as significant if ON candidates do not get off the starting blocks early in seats, because their campaign is so dependent on the brand of Pauline Hanson and the party – and less so the their individual profiles. This Pauline Hanson brand is already well established and prominent particularly in Queensland. You are right that their primary goal is to get Pauline Hanson returned as a Senator. Having candidates in seats around the country is not for the purpose of electing these candidates, but to boost their organisation and visibility on the ground at polling booths, handing out Senate HTV cards, locking in Senate votes.

Sorry Ben to clarify wasn’t criticising you but was suprised that ON haven’t selected a candidate yet in one of their better performing seats but they have in Melbourne. I assume they’d have one by close of nominations but still bizarre.

All good I don’t take it as criticism. There’s just been plenty of people assuming the current list is final.

7 candidates confirmed for this seat, with Burnett (ALP) getting top and Boyce (LNP) bottom. Interestingly, the two same candidates from last time are Sharon Lohse (PHON) and Duncan Scott (IND). @Xenu that answers your question about PHON. Sharon also contested Callide (QLD-2017) and Maryborough (QLD-2020).

ONP vote dropped at QLD State 2020, and they didn’t contest Callide (like KAP) in support of Boyce. Quite simply put, Boyce will win this in a canter and will be an easy LNP Retain. The real side show is, who comes second and who is building up a profile for the expected Callide by-election shortly afterwards. (I’d expect Lohse to go for that one, Burnett unlikely.)

Prediction: LNP Retain

Labor advertising has kicked up in Flynn. Regular TV ads including into the Bindaberg TV market (seat covers right to the edge of suburban Bundaberg including nearby towns like Moore Pakr, South Kolan, Gin Gin, Yandaran, Rosedale) as well as heavy facebook advertising.

They haven’t given up on this one at all.

View all the vibe media commentary about seats in ‘play’ with a huge grain of salt, but shift in media script back to Labor hoping for gains in Qld fits with Labor’s gains in polls, if Morrison does crash & burn Qld would have the biggest bounce back for Labor, if Labor has very good night this could be icing on the cake, but Labor would have to hold Newspoll/IPSOS levels of support.

Geoff – agreee with alot of that but the thing is they can have a big night yet not pick up seats due to the margins.

I’ve made it no secret that I’m not a fan of Colin Boyce but I don’t let that cloud my judgment. I won’t get my hopes up as I expect him to win this seat come election night but I don’t think it should be written off as a permanent loss for Labor. Getting the Mayor of Gladstone as their candidate here was a start but they need to up their margin in the greater Gladstone region and Gracemere, and try to lower the LNP margin in Emerald even if only by a couple points.

All of us here here are aware of the fact that state results don’t translate to federal results, but it’s interesting to note that while Rockhampton and Mackay only had small swings back to Labor in 2020 just as Townsville and Cairns did, Gladstone retained its huge margin in favor of Labor and didn’t see any drop of support for them. It is quite smaller than the other 4 cities yes, but it’s nonetheless an important center within this electorate and an outlier among its fellow cities dotting the coast north of Bundaberg.

I’d read somewhere recently that Boyce himself apparently admitted the race would be close as well, which surprised me. But I think depending on how large the Labor win is nationwide I expect him to take it with a 3-5% margin.

“ Exit polling from a sample of voters at Gladstone’s pre-polling booth at 21 Beckinsale Street, Gladstone Central and at Rockhampton’s James Lawrence Pavilion in Wandal from Monday and early Tuesday has Labor’s Mr Burnett leading the tally with 43 votes, ahead of the LNP’s Mr Boyce on 42 votes. United Australia Party’s Tanya Wieden is coming in third ahead of The Greens’ Paul Bambrick.“

– Via paywalled Cairns Post

Very small number of votes in on this exit poll but figured I’d post here anyway. Not much to comment on as it’s not very indicative of the electorate at large, but interesting nonetheless.