ALP 0.8%
Incumbent MP
Kristy McBain, since 2020.
- Geography
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- 2020 by-election results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
South-Eastern NSW. Eden-Monaro covers parts of south-eastern New South Wales surrounding the ACT, along the south coast and in the Snowy Mountains. Major centres include Bega, Yass, Tumut, Queanbeyan and Cooma.
History
Eden-Monaro is an original federation seat, and because of its position in the corner of the state, it has always covered mostly the same area. The seat was a safe conservative seat for the first few decades, but it has been a marginal seat since the Second World War, and was considered a ‘bellwether seat’ from 1972 until 2016, having always been won by the party of government for the last four decades until it swung to Labor in 2016.
The seat was first won by Austin Chapman of the Protectionist Party in 1901. Chapman held the seat until 1926, during which time he served as a Minister in Alfred Deakin’s governments. He later returned to the ministry under Stanley Bruce from 1923 to 1924. Chapman died in 1926, and John Perkins won the seat in a by-election.
Perkins was defeated by John Cusack (ALP) in 1929, but won it back for the United Australia Party in 1931. Perkins served in a number of ministerial roles under Joe Lyons, and was defeated in 1943 by Allan Fraser of the ALP.
Fraser served in the seat for over twenty years, including a period as a senior Labor member in opposition. Fraser was defeated by Dugald Munro in the 1966 landslide but regained the seat in 1969. He retired from Eden-Monaro in 1972.
Bob Whan (ALP) held the seat from 1972 to 1975, which was the beginning of Eden-Monaro’s period as a bellwether seat. Whan was defeated in 1975 by Murray Sainsbury (LIB). Jim Snow (ALP) defeated Sainsbury in 1983, and he was defeated by Gary Nairn (LIB) in 1996.
Nairn became a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Howard government and then served as Special Minister of State. Despite the seat being held by a government MP for so long, Nairn was the first member for Eden-Monaro to be a minister since John Perkins in the 1930s.
Nairn was defeated in 2007 by Mike Kelly (ALP), a former senior lawyer with the Australian Army.
Kelly was re-elected in 2010 but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy. Kelly returned to win the seat back in 2016, and was elected to a fourth term in 2019.
Kelly resigned his seat in early 2020 for health reasons. The subsequent by-election was narrowly won by Labor’s candidate Kristy McBain.
Assessment
Eden-Monaro is an extremely marginal seat. It’s likely that McBain will be starting to build up her own personal vote but she hasn’t held the seat for very long.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Kelly | Labor | 38,878 | 39.2 | -2.7 |
| Fiona Kotvojs | Liberal | 36,732 | 37.0 | -4.3 |
| Pat Mcginlay | Greens | 8,715 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| Sophie Wade | Nationals | 6,899 | 7.0 | +7.0 |
| Chandra Singh | United Australia Party | 2,748 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| David William Sheldon | Independent | 2,247 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| James Holgate | Independent | 1,883 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Thomas Harris | Christian Democratic Party | 1,157 | 1.2 | -0.7 |
| Informal | 7,246 | 6.8 | +0.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Kelly | Labor | 50,472 | 50.8 | -2.1 |
| Fiona Kotvojs | Liberal | 48,787 | 49.2 | +2.1 |
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Fiona Kotvojs | Liberal | 36,388 | 38.3 | +1.3 |
| Kristy McBain | Labor | 34,073 | 35.9 | -3.3 |
| Trevor Hicks | Nationals | 6,052 | 6.4 | -0.6 |
| Cathy Griff | Greens | 5,385 | 5.7 | -3.1 |
| Matthew Stadtmiller | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 5,066 | 5.3 | +5.3 |
| Michael Balderstone | HEMP | 2,154 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Karen Porter | Independent | 1,218 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| James Jansson | Science Party | 1,071 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Joy Angel | Sustainable Australia | 944 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Dean McCrae | Liberal Democrats | 651 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| James Holgate | Independent | 636 | 0.7 | -1.2 |
| Narelle Storey | Christian Democratic Party | 614 | 0.7 | -0.5 |
| Riccardo Bosi | Independent | 513 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Jason Potter | Australian Federation | 170 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 6,832 | 6.7 | -4.2 |
2020 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kristy McBain | Labor | 47,835 | 50.4 | -0.5 |
| Fiona Kotvojs | Liberal | 47,100 | 49.6 | +0.5 |
Booths in Eden-Monaro have been split into five parts. Polling places in the Queanbyean urban area have been grouped together, and the rest has been split between:
- East – Bega Valley and Eurobodalla council areas
- North – Queanbeyan-Palerang and Yass Valley council areas
- South – Snowy Monaro council area
- West – Snowy Valleys council area
Labor won a slim majority in both 2019 but there was some variety in where those votes were concentrated. Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, north and in Queanbeyan in 2019 and in 2020, with the Liberal Party winning in the south and west.
Labor’s vote was highest in Queanbeyan in 2019 and higher in the east in 2020.
The Nationals vote was lowest in the east and generally highest in rural areas, but went up substantially in Queanbeyan in 2020. The Greens vote was highest in the east and north.
2019 booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | NAT prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 11.2 | 2.4 | 54.3 | 15,404 | 15.5 |
| Queanbeyan | 9.5 | 5.3 | 56.3 | 14,522 | 14.6 |
| North | 11.4 | 10.5 | 52.5 | 10,753 | 10.8 |
| South | 8.0 | 13.5 | 43.1 | 5,258 | 5.3 |
| West | 3.6 | 8.7 | 47.7 | 4,056 | 4.1 |
| Pre-poll | 7.4 | 7.3 | 49.4 | 41,056 | 41.4 |
| Other votes | 9.4 | 6.8 | 46.5 | 8,210 | 8.3 |
2020 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | NAT prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 7.0 | 1.0 | 57.7 | 11,902 | 12.5 |
| Queanbeyan | 6.4 | 9.4 | 55.3 | 11,214 | 11.8 |
| North | 7.8 | 9.9 | 51.3 | 9,637 | 10.2 |
| South | 4.5 | 8.1 | 43.6 | 4,804 | 5.1 |
| West | 2.3 | 6.0 | 48.0 | 3,397 | 3.6 |
| Pre-poll | 5.0 | 6.6 | 48.8 | 40,852 | 43.0 |
| Other votes | 5.8 | 4.8 | 46.8 | 13,129 | 13.8 |
Election results in Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Election results at the 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
@Daniel T including 2007? What about 2001 and 2004?
Goulburn was not seriously contested whilst in a seat that could not be won by Labor. Now it is a different situation so probably Daniel T’s guesses are unlikely.. maybe 2013 would be different?
i plan on attending the main liberal party at HQ next election so il be spending my day in goulburn on lection day as there is a straight shot there
Goulburn is 50/50. I think what’s most interesting about Eden Monaro despite losing it’s bellwether status is how diverse of an electorate it is and how much of the territory is 50/50, rather than it being a seat like Macquarie with clear Labor and Liberal parts.
On redistributions, I think eventually it would make sense for the seat to be an “area of NSW economically inked to Canberra” seat. Goulburn and the Far South Coast (where it’s less “Illawarra” and you see a lot of ACT number plates) are both plausibly part of that community of interest. I’m assuming there wasn’t a way to make the numbers work in a configuration where Gilmore starts at Eden and heads North, and Whitlam loses the Southern Highlands
Agree 2nd John, I think Canberra can be seen to have links to the following NSW locations: Queanbeyan (obviously, as a border town), Yass, Goulburn and Batemans Bay (popular weekend destination on the coast).
Canberra is well connected to Jervis Bay as well (not for governance reasons, just in terms of two way travel) but I see that as the point where the Illawarra and Sydney influence becomes a lot stronger. Then from Nowra up the train line well and truly puts things on a North/South axis.
Also I would not put Tumut and Snowy Valleys area more generally in that category. The direct road to Canberra is a goat track and the recommended way is via the Hume. It is well placed in Wagga centric Riverina (and in the Wagga Wagga state seat).
Agree, with the exception of Yass and Murrumbateman which lie to the northwest of Canberra (direct track along Barton Highway), the rest of Canberra’s connections with NSW lie to the east and northeast (NSW South Coast from Batemans Bay to Narooma as well as Goulburn/Southern Highlands). This is because of impassable mountain ranges (Snowy Mountains) that lie to the west of the ACT.
Agree, with the exception of Yass and Murrumbateman which lie to the northwest of Canberra (direct track along Barton Highway), the rest of Canberra’s connections with NSW lie to the east and northeast (NSW South Coast from Batemans Bay to Narooma as well as Goulburn/Southern Highlands). This is because of impassable mountain ranges (Snowy Mountains) that lie to the west of the ACT.
I actually wonder in the long term if these borders might end up better for Labor. If Labor campaign there, with an incumbent, you’d have to think Goulburn is as pro-ALP if not more than Snowy Rivers and Yass.
@drake these borders will last 2 elections at most. there is an almost certain increase to the parliament coming by the next time the 7 year period is up
The inclusion of goulburn will likely help the coalition however her margin will save her in 2025. Expect to become marginal again
likely around 2% margin post election
Goulburn was not seriously contested at the Federal level. Now it will be
Likewise the areas t/f to Riverina will swing to the nats for exactly the same reason
I’m pretty sure the state Liberals do better in Goulburn itself than the federal Liberals. The state seat of Goulburn is a marginal Liberal seat but I don’t think it’ll flip even if Chris Minns increases his majority in 2027 (I don’t think Epping, Ryde or Winston Hills would either based on what I’ve heard there and the local members have built up profiles there and Terrigal isn’t even in play even if every other seat swings to Labor it won’t).