Eden-Monaro – Australia 2022

Unless Barilaro runs, Labor will hold this. Even then it wouldn’t be a done deal because most of the lib branch volunteers won’t turn up for the Nats .
Angus Taylor won’t like it but eventually E-M will have to include Goulburn, & Queanbeyan….again !. Then its game over.

I disagree. Labor is not holding onto any seat with less than a 2% margin. You are suggesting this election will be close it will not be. I predict the coalition will win a 54-46% victory nationwide at the next election because of how appalling Albanese has been.

It’s not because I “want” it to happen. It’s because I know it will. If you apply the same error the polls got last time it would translate to an increased majority.

Only Kotvojs could blow this for the Libs

In relation to Labor losing all seats less than 2%, do you think Anne Aly in Cowan and Libby Coker in Corangamite will both lose? If COVID reaches EM McBain could hold.

My base starting assumption for seats is that the 2019 swings will be repeated, which would have Labor losing here (and Marko, holding Corangamite and Cowan, which also lines up with my predictions about WA and Vic being good for Labor)

However the one consistent thing through the complexity of this seat is that they’ll hang on to a good local MP. Haven’t been keeping up with McBain since she got elected but things seem fairly good.

One to watch, as usual.

Not a bad starting point John. Government hasn’t fundamentally changed personnel, policy or style since 2019 and ALP so far only tinkered. Swings will probably line up in the same order, just the median point will be determined by national factors.

I wonder what Government is cooking up in south east Melbourne this time around since going again on car parks might look a bit obvious….

If you do this the result is
LIB 86 ( Stirling destroyed, gain EM, Shortland, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Greenway, Dobell, Macquarie, Lilley, Blair, Moreton, Indi, lose Chisholm, Higgins)
ALP 60 (Hawke created, lose EM, Shortland, Paterson, Hunter, Parramatta, Greenway, Dobell, Macquarie, Lilley, Blair, Moreton, win Chisholm, Higgins)
GRN 1
IND 3 (inc Mayo, lose Indi)
KAP 1

Daniel
2%?. Very neat. Instinctively i sense a far more chaotic outcome !. Whilst you rightly condemn Albanese’s performance as “appalling’. The PM’S has been no better.. The difference is that voters made no investment in Albo. They didn’t vote for him. Do you believe that voters simply voted AGAINST BS !?. Labor do seem to hold this view. This comfortable narrative has reassured Labor that they have no need to reform, or renew.
I will give a “report card” review on the PM’s performance, in the Cook thread. The conclusion will be that Morrison has failed to ever accept any failure. The most lethal fault in leadership. Inability to accept failure is the greatest weakness of the achiever/performer type 3 personality .
Mc Bain has the same fixation, however her “story” will look good, & the voters have made a choice to back her, & they will need to feel “unseen” for some time in order to choose again. For awhile Mc Bain will tell everyone what they want to hear. It takes time for this kind of deceit to be exposed.
If there was so little momentum for a change twice in the last 2 years where will it come from this time?
i wil respond further on the Shortland thread.
cheers WD

Shorthand hunter and Blair are labor seats..
Higgins likely to stay liberal. Most of the others were labor held even in 2013. Even on state figures dobell is labor held. The assumption of a 2% anti alp swing is similarly a bad guess.I suspect labor will have a swing in Wa to them and would be unlucky not to gain something especially if ken wyatt retires

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/edenmonaro2022/comment-page-1#comment-753698

The Morrison Government bet its fortunes on the NSW lockdown avoidance strategy being successful and AstraZeneca being a great vaccine, now the NSW strategy has failed spectacularly and AstraZeneca is not advised for under 60s, they are a politically dead government walking. I expect the ALP to make gains in NSW at the election.

Tom, Labor is not winning anything with Albanese. I personally don’t like Morrison and they didn’t at the last election either but the party won because Shorten was worse, People don’t vote for someone because they like them but because they see them as the lesser of the 2 evils, Morrison so far in my judgement isn’t as evil as Albanese

Albanese has 0 charisma and has 0 character that he needs to win over the quiet Australians, And spoiler, I am a quiet Australian. Albanese is the Australian version of Jeremy Corbyn who was trashed at the last UK election.

I’m an even quieter Australian and it’s for this reason I’m predicting Adam Bandt flawless victory and God-Emperor

Daniel
Albanese is not Corbyn; Albanese is very obviously a Starmer- an easily irritated mid-50s wishy-washy moderate-left politician who makes his closest colleagues (Plibersek, Wong, Chalmers to name a few) look like the leadership potential they’ll never live up to because of the damn unions. Well, maybe apart from Chalmers.

Ryan Spencer
Perhaps you and all the other “Chalmers fans” ought to read my post on the Rankin thread ?
Next Labour PM will most likely be Clare O’Neil.

i’m not a chalmers fan actually – much prefer plibersek.

Ryan Spencer
Ah Yes Tanya. The “Emily’s List” standard bearer. So it will be an achievement of “diversity” when we have 50% female MPs ?. How about a diversity of personality types ?. Talents ?, Abilities? Views?. Something, anything to (truly) respect, & admire.
Tanya , KK, Michelle Rowland, Ann Aly, Kimberly Kitching, Annika Wells etc the labor women stars. Many with sound qualities, & yet all very similar . Achiever/Performer personality type 3 fixation. A monoculture of winning at any cost, just like the PM. Not enough difference for me. I expect a whole lot more.
ive always admired Julie Owen, Kitching, & respected O’neil. Do you not see the difference ? Others show promise.

Tanya shares the PMs fatal flaw as a 3 . She is incapable of accepting or acknowledging failure.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/edenmonaro2022/comment-page-1#comment-753717

Albanese needs to win over swing voters, not people with evident strongly pro-Coalition opinions such as yourself. Also, people who post strongly pro-Coalition opinions on psephologically blogs outside election campaigns are not “quiet Australians”, they are at a minimum “medium volume Australians”. There is no doubt a significant segment of “quiet Australians” who usually agree with such Coalition supporters but that does not make

It’s been reported in the Saturday Paper, The Footy Show’s Erin Molan is a chance of being preselected in the Labor marginal seat of Eden-Monaro for the Liberals. I’m skeptical that it’s going to happen, and if it would work as these celebrity candidates rarely do. Molan is the daughter of Liberal senator Jim Molan.

It appears less concerned about the possible Liberal preselection of television personality Erin Molan in the seat of Eden-Monaro, believing incumbent Kristy McBain can hang on.

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/11/20/election-map-the-seats-where-it-will-be-won/163732680012921#mtr

PN
Interesting. But very unlikely. Why would Erin take such a massive pay cut ?. The only reason (i can think of) would be to get automatic pre selection next time (2025 on different boundaries). That might make some sense.
Any one thinking McBain hasn’t got this stitched up, is dreaming. Only Albo could stuff this up,(for her) with one of his glib, stupid, & forgettable “zingers”!!.
Albo has become the “Albatross” of the ALP !.

Erin Molan? A celebrity? Most celebrity candidates who end up in politics are D grade celebrities at best.

Ryan Spencer
you know the saying ” Politics is hollywood for ugly people”!! Maybe you are correct about the celebrity rankings too ?.

FL
very, very clever. One of your best ever comments . Had to google finnistride..! However Wilson is a 3 fixation & Vanity is their passion, whereas Barnaby is an 8 fixation & revenge is their passion. So i don’t see Barnaby ever looking after himself in a metrosexual way. He just isn’t that kind of bloke

Its been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald that Erin Molan has declined the Liberals offer to stand as a canidate in Eden-Monaro.

Apparently her father senator Jim Molan name is reportedly in the mix. I would be suprised considering his age and his health problems he would run in the hustle and bustle of a marginal seat campaign. Previous canidate Fiona Kotvojs name was also mentioned as a possible option.

Molan is very likely to retire from politics.
He’s been absent from parliament for a long time now and I honestly don’t see him returning.

Ryan Spencer
it’s possible that you’re correct, & i agree that is the obvious reality. However Molan is a (politically rare ) enthusiast / epicure TYPE 7 personality . They have far too much energy to step back easily. Does he look or sound like someone wanting to take it easy ? Ask him if he has another 3years (at this level) in him !?. I think you can imagine the answer (easily) !!.
cheers wd

Lib gain. Mike Kelly’s personal vote only thing that caused it to go against the bell weather

@ Ben, then you would have thought the Coalition would have won at the by-election, especially given Kelly quit because he was sick of Labor? Also isn’t this bushfire territory?

Ftb, Labor did suffer a 0.5% or so swing against them at the by election and even though the new liberal candidate is unknown or low profile, I reckon this is still a toss up seat that has a slight (maybe <30%) chance of being lost to the liberal party

Also I doubt Labor would be able to achieve anything more than 2% margin post election if they do achieve a swing in their favour.

In an election where the Labor 2PP vote in NSW dropped by 2.4%, there was only a swing of 2.1% here… and then Labor won the by-election, establishing the new member. And the by-election happened during the Coalition in NSW was in the middle of a strong period (their 2PP was higher than it was at 2019 election).

Now the Coalition is a lot lower on 2PP. I don’t see how they pick this up, given the circumstances. The new Labor MP has had nearly 2 years to build up momentum into a sophomore surge, and the Coalition is generally on-the-nose.

Could the Coalition manage to take it? Yes. But it’s not in the toss-up zone. It’s more in the “there could be an upset” zone.

Agree with Glen. This seat definitely isn’t done and dusted for Labor, but they’re definitely favorites. Don’t see how it falls unless the polls are even more wrong than last time.

As a resident in the electorate the impression I get is the Liberals are running dead. We have only one letterbox drop from them and as I drive around the local area there are none of their signs in gardens. On the other had Labor appears to be very active.

A question for the folks here.
Eden-Monaro has been declared by the AEC but the AEC website still shows there are votes to be counted. Is that the usual practice?

The speed of the declaration depends on whether enough uncounted votes remain such that it is mathematically impossible for a candidate other than the Labor one to win. They have counted enough votes for that to be the case, both in terms of the Liberal party overtaking Labor on a 2PP count (a margin of 15944) and that no other candidate will exclude either Liberal or Labor to make a different 2CP and thus form a new count (The Greens, at 9%, are 23638 votes below Liberal).

If eden Monaro takes in the rear minder of eurobodalla at the next redistribution this could be a target for the libs as it would tak in batemans bay and if Andrew Constance uns here he’ll be back in his former electorate of Bega which could see a personal vote tip it back. Either way I think if Constance runs either here or Gilmore it will e an on pickup given that Gilmore will either shed Kiama or eurobodalla at the redistribution and if it’s Kiama that will tip the seat far enough back to constances favour. My predicticion is we will see Andrew Constance in federal parliament in 2025

There is a 58% alp vote here. I don’t think I could draw boundaries.here to.create an liberal win

@Mick Andrew Constance would bring a huge personal vote in the Bega state district area. and he polled very well against the tide in Gilmore and almost ook the seat against the flow of anti liberal vote nationwide i would rule him out here. this division is usually a swing electorate and only went against the bellwhether because of Mike Kellys personal vote. id wager it will return to Bellwether status now. if the government does poorly over the remainder of its turn i wuoldnt rule it out

I think this electorate is best described as a “Canberra region” electorate. So Queanbeyan, the Monaro, and Yass Valley should be the basis. Culturally even Queanbeyan feels very different to Canberra but the economic links are undeniable and it’s good to have that as a community of interest.

Beyond that, the parts of the South Coast – especially Bega Valley and Eurobodalla, make a lot of sense. You see a lot of ACT number plates in that part of the world. Probably as far north as the Jervis Bay area is credible – once you get to Nowra the links to the Illawarra and Sydney become much stronger than any Canberra influence but the Nerriga-Nowra road upgrade has boosted the Canberra links to the Shoalhaven.

Inland, much of the Southern Tableland makes sense, including Goulburn itself. It’s reasonably common to live in Goulburn and work in Canberra. The “Canberra Region” site includes all of Hilltops, Goulburn-Mulwaree and Upper Lachlan shires as “Canberra region” though local perceptions may vary. If Hume needs to split off the Sydney Suburbs, maybe it will end up taking on this kind of identity.

I wonder if there’s enough people for distinct “south coast” and “Inland Canberra region” electorates. It probably won’t happen with “Eden-Monaro” having such a long political history.

One thing that’s clear though is that Tumut and Tumbarumba really shouldn’t be in this electorate. Sure they’re in the Snowy Mountains but they aren’t practically linked to the Monaro. Canberra and Tumut are about 80km apart as the crow flies but Google Maps recommends goinig via Gundagai on the Hume for a reason. They’re best linked to Wagga Wagga (Riverina) and Albury (Farrer) respectively.

@john electoral divisions cannot cross state boundaries. Eden monaro must lie solely within the state of NSW

@Potatqes – not suggesting that in my comment at all. If the confusion is about Jervis Bay, I’m talking about Vincentia and Huskisson in NSW, not the territory that mostly consists of Booderee National Park.

As each federal seat will be approximately equal to 2 state seats, I’m imagining perhaps a redistribution that has Eden in one “South Coast” seat (covering the territory of the South Coast and Bega electorates), and the Monaro in the other “Canberra Region” seat (covering Monaro and Goulburn electorates). Neither electorate would have any ACT in it.

Ok wasn’t sure. Given it’s currently under quarto I hghly doubt it. In my suggestion. It will cede yass valley to riverina but gain the rest of eurobodalla from gilmore

Does anyone know why Tanja has such a high Greens vote? Google doesn’t seem to say that it’s a hippie town (hippie towns seem to be really the only type of rural towns where there’s always a high Greens vote).

@np what the vvote there?

Imagine if EM or Gilmore was abolished and some of the country seats got larger and Hume expanded. (Or if EM is abolished, Gilmore expands all the way down the south coast to include Bega.

@daniel t would never happen its almost impossible to abolish a corner seat that borders the ocean on one side and the end of the state on another

@np it looks like its a left leaning town and i guess they abandoned labor for the greens?

There is quite a big ‘alternative’ community in the Bega Valley. The area around Tanja was pretty marginal dairy land and was bought up by ‘alternative’ types quite a while ago when the land was cheap. Despite being right on the coast the area round Tanja was quite isolated so that was another attraction. I haven’t driven the Tathra-Bermagui Road for 15 -20 years and I am not 100% sure it was sealed then. It definitely wasn’t in the 1980s. When the road wasn’t sealed, it was quite a way to Tathra as the nearest town, and Bega would have been a big trip.

It is only Eden-Monaro because both Eden – on the coast – and the Monaro – inland – have had historical links and been in the same electorate. Methinks it quite possible if it didn’t have the name that there could be a coastal seat and a tablelands seat. Just can’t see it happening though.

@redistributed there will never be a reason to rename this seat given both are in the lower se corner

John, you miss my point.
The name drives the boundaries and the continuation of the boundaries – if it been named ‘Ralph’ say – it may have been considered to have a boundary run down the escarpment with the coastal section in a coastal seat and the tablelands section in an inland seat. In days of old – pre WW2 – there would have been more in common between the Monaro and the Far South Coast than there is now. After all, the main and easiest land access was from the Tableland. With better roads and changes in demographics, the full length of the South Coast is more of a cohesive entity. However whilst the name remains, the boundaries remain the same.
For what it is worth, the Far South Coast was in the state seat of Monaro until 1988 when Bega was created and a split between coast and tableland put in.

Re: Tanja vote.

The area, as redistributed pointed out, still has a large alternative population, which exist spatially outside the rural town of Bega and the coastal/holiday town of Tathra. Third-party votes in all levels of government used to go as high as 90%, and are now actually declining slightly due to the affluence of wealthier tree-changers that have started to move into the area from capital cities.

Additionally, there is a strong vote for the incumbent Greens local councilor, Cathy Griff, who has lived in the seat for nearly 20 years.

I wonder what effect the significant changes to E-M electoral boundaries will have on the Labor vote in this seat? Looks like an increase in the percentage of urban voters, but also a decrease in the number of Canberra-adjacent workers (Yass etc.).

On these boundaries, the seat would’ve gone coalition in 2019, and possibly even every election since 2007 except for 2022 obviously.