Dunkley – Australia 2022

1. Peta Murphy is a pretty visible local member. I expect her to hold this seat – probably with a swing to her.

2. I agree with Jarrod this seat will stay with Labor with a swing towards them.

3. Agree there will likely be a Sophomore surge

4. Likely swing to Labor in this seat. Popular and well-known local MP and the Liberals have failed to deliver too many of their high-profile election promises (rail line, road, railway car parks). The new Liberal candidate has apparently now moved to the electorate from the inner city, has put some big billboards up and is basing herself in Mt Eliza, the only Liberal part of the electorate but where Labor received a huge swing in 2019. You would have to wonder whether the Liberals will give up on this one.

5. I think the Libs may struggle here. Their promise/pork-barrel to build commuter car parks in Lib and marginal seats that then fell through because of lack of due diligence and cancelled will be remembered in the northern part of this seat and create credibility issues for any new promises they make. And as mentioned above, Murphy is a pretty strong local MP.

   The one thing in the Libs favour is, in my opinion, their candidate is stronger this time. But I don’t think it will be enough.

6. If a Victorian based Menzien Liberal is leader then I expect a whole swamp of seats including this one to flip. Frydenburg is close to what you would call a Menzien liberal but I’m not sure if he would do really well in Melbourne as leader as he has the clout of Morrison (Being his deputy) But Peter Costello would definitely have held Melbourne for the Libs in 2007 had he deposed John Howard in 2006 which he likely would have had the numbers to do so.

   Obviously these new boundaries and the ones that preceded them aren’t favourable to the Liberals at all but nevertheless it still remains a marginal seat so I think while a Victorian liberal may lose seats in QLD that would be countered by the gains in Melbourne.

   While the liberals can win this under it’s present leadership it would take a 2013,1996,2004,1977,1975,1966 to win this seat.

7. Could be a close result in 2022

   Murphy just has not done enough.

8. Peta Murphy after only winning on preferences has failed to deliver or promise anything substantial in her time as MP. She has only delivered an upgrade to a skate park in Langwarrin, and has had a set of traffic lights built in Carrum Downs. Besides her inaction on getting things done in Dunkley she also post regularly on Facebook about her disgust in the Government only denigrating the government and not offering any alternative solutions. She has also been known to delete the comments of people who disagree with her.

   The Liberal candidate, Sharn Coombes has already secured funding from the federal government for upgrades at Lloyd Park in Langwarrin and has partnered with the Frankston City Council after talks with the State Labor Government at the last election fell through, to build a car park at Kananook Station with a capacity of 312 cars as it has become a busier station in recent years. Sharn has been shown to be the more personable of the two candidates.

   Dunkley will be crucial seat in 2022 and will prove to be a close battle.

9. Zac
   You missed the bit about her enthusiasm for the CDC for pensioners great big, huge lie. Anyone that wants to spread that excrement around ought to be held in absolute contempt. The elderly have enough to be frightened of without politicians trying to terrify them.

10. Zac, you seem to live under a partisan rock. The Liberals are in government so the job of a local Labor MP is to represent the community forcefully and hold the government to account for delivering its promises (very odd that you mention the car parks here). Murphy has done both well and was one of the most connected local MPs in the country through COVID, building solid respect across all sections of the community for it. I received regular, comprehensive and non-political information from her throughout, which was refreshing for a politician. My daughter tells me she just attended over 30 school presentations in a fortnight, including hers, so is clearly still working hard. Murphy has taken this seat from nearly 6% Liberal to nearly 3% Labor in just two elections (would have to be one of the biggest swings in the country, but just guessing that), so locals had clearly formed a handy view of her, even before this term. There is benefit to knowing your community.

    The Libs have lacked local voice since Bruce Bilson retired and they’ve failed twice to preselect a local. The new Liberal candidate is unobjectionable, but as an outsider really needs to reach out to her new community. She and her family apparently still live in the city, despite the big billboards everywhere. Not clear why the Libs didn’t run Zoe McKenzie or someone else with more substance for Dunkley, to at least give themselves an outside chance. If the Libs are to have a chance of turning the tide here, they need to rely on Morrison winning the national debate as they have no chance of winning the local battle.

11. Barry
    Very good post. Informative & to the point.
    However if Murphy is so fabulous how come she is so eager to get in the gutter with the CDC ginormous lie ?
    What for ?
    Accusing Zac of living beneath a partisan rock might be a little bit of projection eh?
    6%+ – 3% – stretching the numbers more than a little aren’t we ? Being a little loose with the truth !!?
    Do you really think making up numbers here of all places is going to fly !!!. as if…..!!
    my favourite line from “Zulu” “Good God man, where do you think you are ?” ( colour Sgt Vaughn VC)
    PS Zoe McKenzie didn’t run because she wanted to win

12. Winediamond, I don’t have any idea what the CDC is, I’m afraid.
    Margin going into 2016 election was 5.6% Lib and after 2019 was 2.7% the other way – these numbers are straight from the AEC so hardly made up. Are you disputing these numbers? I think you’re mistaken here but please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong (maybe apologise, if not)
    Yes, I’m sure Zoe will win Flinders but would not win Dunkley, but at least Libs would show they are serious about a genuinely marginal seat. I suspect you would agree that a local candidate would have been better still.
    All the best

13. Barry
    Sorry i wasn’t aware Murphy stood in 2016. IIRC When Bilson retired in whenever he had A 2.5% margin that was essentially wiped out by a subsequent redistribution. So i still feel your are giving Murphy a little too much credit, although she deserved to win.
    The CDC is the Cashless Debit Card (falsely promoted as being planned for ALL welfare recipients INCLUDING & especially pensioners. Murphy has an online promotion to this effect. Perhaps the dozen or so labor MPs pushing this disgusting barefaced lie think that if they say it often enough some moron in the liberal party will think it’s a good idea ( to implement such a suicidal policy()!!? i did comment in the Richmond thread on this issue
    on second thoughts …………..! maybe there are a lot of morons in the libs !!
    all the best wd

14. I think if anything is disgusting, it’s forcing people onto the cashless debit card in the first place. Age pensioners have been forced onto the card already in Cape York. If the remainder of pensioners are not going to be forced onto it, is the Liberal Party saying pensioners in Cape York are less trustworthy than pensioners anywhere else? One rule for them, another rule for the rest?

15. Wilson
    IIRC there are 5 =FIVE communities in Australia where this is being TRIALLED. AT I REPEAT AT the REQUEST of “at risk” dependents. Don’t you think you might be overreacting just a tad ?
    In any case propagandising & misrepresenting such an isolated instance AS NATIONAL POLICY IS WITHOUT THE SLIGHTEST DOUBT ABSOLUTELY DISGUSTING.
    THINK carefully about what you yourself are supporting enabling & condoning.
    i won’t be as tolerant, or polite if you persist with this nonsense.
    very poor form

16. winediamond, no I am not overreacting. Only 6 of the 20 Cape York age pensioners on the card are there voluntarily, and the remaining 14 were placed there involuntarily by the Family Responsibilities Commission, a government body [1]. Forcing people onto a card that robs them of the ability to buy anything without the approval of a private corporation is far more disgusting to me than people discussing their fears of how the Liberal Party are going to screw welfare recipients next. The party have form on that front, you see.

    I don’t really care if you’re tolerant or polite, you mean nothing to me.

    [1] – https://cpsa.org.au/article/20-age-pensioners-on-cashless-welfare-card-what-does-it-mean-for-you/

17. wrong wd.
    It applies to the following regions:
    Ceduna
    East Kimberley
    the WA Goldfields
    Bundaberg and Hervey Bay region
    Cape York & Doomadgee
    and the entirety of the Northern Territory.

18. The Labor campaign on the cashless debit card is just a big Labor scare campaign and has to be called out. The Medicare campaign in 2016 was baseless as well. The Libs scare campaigns in 2019 was more nuanced and tighter targetted. Scare campaigns should be called out – they insult everyones intelligence.

19. In 2007 I was going to vote Labor in Deakin until the brochure that told me that Labor would not build nuclear power stations in Deakin. WTF – where would you build any sort of power station in the Melbourne eastern suburbs? Give voters some respect and acknowledgement of some basic intelligence!!

20. Redistributed
    I don’t disagree with one word that you have just written. Well done.”Give voters some respect and acknowledgement of some basic intelligence!!”
    Perhaps we could go further & impose “Truth in advertising LAWS” on all politicians, so that we might end this ridiculous nonsense for all time ?. Rather than have legal battles perhaps a bureau of 12 ex pollies, could do the reviews ?
    I’m presuming that the 2019 scare campaign your’e referring to was around tax ? How would you prosecute that ?. Given that labor did intend to fundamentally increase tax, & if necessary MAY have gone further to fund programs if projections were wrong. IOW perhaps insisting that parties make guarantees before elections has merit ? IE not raising the GST
    CHEERS WD

21. Wilson
    Spare me. 14 alcoholic, or addicted pensioners hahahahahah. You must be joking .
    The tax payers of australia provide how much money to social security, & aboriginal affairs. Are you contending that we ought to continue giving all those billion of $ unconditionally ?
    Tell you what. Just keep going with that. That will end up as popular as onshore processing of (so called ) refugees, death taxes, or CGT on the family home !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
    you goose.

    Ryan
    Have you got any better ideas ?

22. It’s very clear to me that the Liberals do indeed plan to roll that card out to all welfare recipients, they aren’t exactly denying it, are they? So it’s perfectly fair to discuss the implications of that card on the lives of the people subjected to it. The effect on their ability to balance the budget, their cost of living, the effect on their self-esteem, their dignity, their mental health, their mood levels, in some cases, their will to live. Because it’s very clear that if the government is prepared to roll it out to any pensioners at all, then they’re prepared to roll it out to all of them.

23. I suspect it’s like WorkChoices. They’d love to do it, but know it’s electoral poison, and are keenly aware that pensioners in particular are now one of their core constituencies.

24. Fran
    Haven’t you been paying attention ?
    How many times do you want Anne RUSHTON – The Minister for Families and Social ServicesMinister
    for Women’s Safety
    Manager of Government Business in the Senate
    To TOTALLY , PUBLICLY, REPEATEDLY DENY THAT THE GOVT HAS ANY, INCREMENTAL OR PARTIAL PLANS TO IMPLEMENT A CASHLESS DEBIT CARD FRO PENSIONERS ?
    So IS Rushton a barefaced liar ?
    Is there a govt conspiracy?
    Can the the govt keep a secret ? Or can’t they find their own backside with both hands ?
    Which is it ? It can’t be both ?
    Or are you just peddling some disgusting nonsense ?

    Have the guts to back up your ridiculous, & completely improbable accusations

25. FL
    Yep
    AND this govt is so renowned for it’s courage with work place, & industrial reform !!.
    Like Labor is with tax reform !
    cheers wd

26. Fran
    Did you believe the Labor scare campaign in 2016 that the Libs would dismantle Medicare? Or are you just peddling the line here and in other social media settings.

    You might like to check this out from the Australian Associated Press Fact Check unit.

    https://www.aap.com.au/factcheck/claim-aged-pensioners-will-be-put-on-cashless-debit-cards-is-due-for-retirement/

27. They never say they’re not going to do it, they say they “have no plans to”. Big difference.

28. Seat-by-seat betting now appearing on a few sites, none of which give the Liberal candidate any chance in Dunkley. TAB has Labor’s Peta Murphy at 1.04 and the Liberals’ Sharon Coombs at 10.00. The anti-Morrison sentiment in Victoria feels really strong, which may see the Libs focus much more of their effort on saving seats such as Chisholm, Latrobe and Casey.

29. Fran
    That is simply a barefaced lie.
    Rushton has said repeatedly that the govt WILL NOT DO IT IN ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM END OF STORY. Quit with the “have no plans to”, OR “they have form” wrt the Medicare bullshit.
    It’s not even “ruling in -out bullshit”.
    Just absolutely pathetic. Clearly you have nothing real to back up your disgusting accusations.
    WE are all here to RAISE the level of debate not to engage in bullshit propositions
    QUIT IT

30. Has anyone thought about what has been going on these last two years with these politicians.. They say that they are with us and we are in this together!!! Are they really.. With what I have seen they are definitely not with us.. The most important thing is to find real politicians who will stand with the people who are fighting for the real problems that this state is going through.. Saturday afternoon in the city of Melbourne will show you these issues..

31. Fran
    Nothing more to say ? Any constructive contribution ? Just like Albo–not intellectually up to it are you ?

32. Labor fanatics go off their trolley when you tell them their policies are pretty rubbish winediamond. They have the gall to call themselves the “party of equality” and then go and support these religious discrimination laws without even giving their MPs a conscience vote or anything

33. Ryan Spencer
    Yeah spot on. I’d have to ask “what policies”!?. I mean the Kurri Kurri gas power station says it all. All “policies” are “disposable” ones !.Like nappies, not clothes !

    It’s worth remembering that around 70% of politicians of which most are committed church going god botherers . Which is around nearly double the national average, which is weird in itself. So i doubt a conscience vote would change much. If they couldn’t do their job with SSM & put the decision back to the nation, what hope is there !? it really is beyond pathetic. Tragic is the word.

34. there needs to be a better separation between church and state because so many aussies aren’t just atheist, but completely unbothered with religious services.

35. I’ve received a truly bizarre email from the Liberal Candidate for Dunkley (I’m guessing others have too), saying that people are complaining to her about the cost of living, the environment and local amenity – I’m not sure if she realises that she is standing for the Morrison Government, which has had power over these things for the last 9 years.

36. The new Liberal candidate is calling for the rail line to Baxter to be built, without seeming to realise that the Liberals promised to do exactly that at the 2019 election (alongside their three new car parks) but have failed to deliver any of it. The Liberal line is always that Dan Andrews is to blame (they seem more interested in the state than the federal election), but ScoMo promised locals he would deliver the train even without the state. So why on earth would the Liberals remind voters of their sorry history here?

37. Barry, Sometimes these promises from the feds can prompt the state to take action. At the Victorian 2006 state election, the Libs promised to remove the level crossing at Springvale Road in Nunawading – a level crossing on an 8 lane major arterial. Peter Batchelor, the ALP Transport said it “wasn’t necessary”. In 2007, the Libs made it an issue and basically forced Labor to match it and the work was undertaken. It is interesting that the ALP have also promised the rail extension. The Andrews Government are dragging the chain. It might be a big issue in November.

38. ScoMo may have promoted a $3 million Preliminary Business Case Report, so that it sounded like an electric railway.
    The completed report: https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/migrated/rail/publications/files/frankston-to-baxter-preliminary-business-case.pdf

    Interesting, the first line of the recommendations says:
    “Based on the initial analysis in the PBC, none of the investment options have demonstrated a
    strong economic case for priority investment.”

39. Herald Sun poll suggesting a 47% primary vote for Labor in Dunkley, and collapsed support for Morrison, feels right on the ground. The local member is very popular (climbing 9% in PV) and the Liberals have been nowhere to be seen throughout the entire term of government. Preselecting someone who still doesn’t live anywhere near the seat has just given Labor just another free kick. I suspect the Liberal party might start to focus its attention a little more to the south. I don’t think I’ve seen a poll for Flinders yet – has anyone?

40. Dunkley ballot draw conducted today. Notable is the large number of right-wing candidates (6 of the 9) that risk splitting the conservative vote.

    1. Darren Bergwerf, Independent
    2. Peta Murphy (incumbent), Labor
    3. Damian Williams, Liberal Democrats
    4. Elizabeth Johnston, Animal Justice
    5. Liam O’Brien, Greens
    6. Sharon Coombes, Liberal
    7. Scott Middlebrook, Independent
    8. Kathryn Woods, Independent
    9. Adrian Irvine, United Australia Party

41. A big local battle brewing in the seat of Dunkley. For the second federal election in a row a Liberal Mayor of Frankston has been accused of working to favour a struggling Liberal candidate – appearing on her advertising and on the front of her campaign office, and allegedly forcing council staff to organise events for the Liberal candidate (as she is not from the area) and instructing staff to promote her. Watch this space, as people are beginning to call this out and council may be forced to act sooner rather than later.

42. Don’t know why the mayor would put themselves out like that when this seat seems like a foregone conclusion. Labor retain with a sizable swing to them.

43. Frankston City Council are a bitter partisan mess at the best of of times.

    I would suggest the Libs think they’re in with some chance here, as they’ve put a lot of money into billboards etc.

    The yard signs etc are all Peta Murphy though.

44. Keep an eye on Darren Bergwerf the only Independent in Dunkley. All signs point to change. He also has some great policies that are focused on the community.

45. What’s the current ground feel here?

46. Ground feel is Labor hold.

    Libs are spending on billboards etc, but yard signs (such as they are) are only really Peta Murphy.

47. Regards Bergwerf, he does have quite a few A4 printed flyers taped up in shops etc. I don’t know anything about him, other than that his photo has him brandishing power drills like they’re pistols, and that I’ve heard he was associated with the Australia One (or First?) party that was deregistered or failed to get enough to register etc. But can’t verify that second part.

48. ABC Melbourne (Raf Epstein) spent the afternoon on the ground in Frankston, interviewing four candidates (three independents plus sitting Labor member). Then five candidates participated in the council debate last night, with a pretty big crowd attending (I’d guess around 150-200). The debate was again out of control (as one was apparently last week in Mt Eliza too), but basically it saw Peta Murphy commanding the debate by answering the four independents with direct and honest responses. The independents and their crowd (stacked mainly with anti-vaccers and sovereign citizens) didn’t want to hear it, but Murphy exposed them as a bit out of their depth. But the biggest thing noted by all was that the Liberal candidate Sharn Coombes refused to participate in either the ABC interview or the Frankston Council debate. And among those least impressed were the right wing independents and parties, who are all directing preferences to her ahead of Murphy. Will be interesting to see if this is still the case given her refusal to answer questions or turn up to anything.

49. By “the independents” with the anti-vaxxer sovereign citizen conspiracy theorists – I’m assuming you mean Bergwerf and his hangers-on?

    I was guessing that it was that kind of crowd, though the yellow shirt brigade would be about the same level.

    They’ll still point their prefs towards Coombs no matter what. The conspiracy crowd is solidly anti-Labor and always has been.

50. Barry, what you say about the council debate is both surprising and scandalous. How does any candidate expect to be taken seriously if they are unwilling to debate their ideas and positions on issues?

    A more interesting question is – can minor parties change their preferences up until Election Day? I appreciate it might be rather pointless now given how many people vote early…but it would certainly throw the cat among the pigeons.

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