Dickson – Australia 2022

Labor and a number of progressive groups threw tons of money at this seat last election, and Dutton only increased his margin, despite everything he’s done. But my gut tells me that if it didn’t happen last time, it’s not happening this time either. It’s a shame because Ali France seems like a genuinely great candidate, as good as any Labor have to offer, and Peter Dutton is, well…

Gotta agree with others saying that I don’t see any realistic pickups for Labor, other than maybe Brisbane and Ryan. Like I said before, if I were their Queensland strategist I’d be aggressively managing my expectations and focusing everything on sandbagging the few seats they can still realistically hold, Lilley being number 1 on the list.

We will never know, but perhaps the campaign against Dutton reduced a 7% swing to a 3% swing. I say 7% because that’s what the swing was in Petrie.

Nicholas Weston
I find you contrived connection entirely baseless & improbable. If you don’t like the bloke just say so, if you must, & leave it at that

The following are excerpts of my posts last election
Interesting that Dutton’s talents, qualities, accomplishments, & abilities seem so unappreciated. What would we think without any personal experience of him, & just examining his CV, & history ?.
So many people loathe him. It seems to be all about how he looks, & sounds. What he is supposed to represent (projection). A Forceful rebuttal based on his resume, & record, often gives pause. Most people are unaware of his police career achievements, & forget the fact that he has been a 3, yes three time successful minister. Contrast this to most of the labor shadows who were twice if not thrice FAILED ministers.

Electorally i believe Dutton’s personal vote is far more solid, & substantial, than is recognised. The Adani issue is not so important in itself. However it feeds what i would describe as QLD “SEIGE MENTALITY”. iT DOESN’T take a lot for QLDer’s to feel victimised, or that they are being discriminated against. People would be surprised at how often a casual reference to the “Brisbane line” can get a reaction !!. I speak from experience, & i dare anyone to question my skills at getting reactions !!. BS has been particularly incompetent at dealing with this challenge, to the point where his (lack of) popularity would be significantly worse in QLD, & growing

Anyone want to tell me whaat i got wrong ?

Only “political Nightwatchman” challenged me on this.

Not interested in being drawn on a policy debate but I’ll explain it like this: think about how much you don’t like Sarah Hanson-Young. That’s how people like me feel about Peter Dutton.

@winediamond

My comment is simply a question about what the impact may have been of the campaign against him. I’m curious to hear the analysis of others. That you’d jump on me simply for asking, and question my own views when I haven’t expressed any, says more about your own prejudices. I for one, think the answer is no – that the campaign against Dutton did not have much of an impact.

Nicholas Weston
Fair enough. i apologise, for overstepping, & whatever other transgressions.

. You are right it is a legitimate inquiry. To be honest i have no clear idea myself, other than the outcome speaks for itself. instinctively i feel it’s difficult to compare a likeable figure like Luke Howarth, to a polarising one such as Dutton. Then again the landscape is so similar (Petrie, Dickson). So it is difficult.
Perhaps this result will crystallise the reality ?
I also vehemently disagree with Furtive Lawngnome about Ali France. IMV France was by any objective analysis an entirely appalling choice of candidate, and i posted so at the time. Between BS, & France Labor did not help itself at all.
I’ll be very interested in your view of Greenway.
cheers WD

Dickson and Petrie have similar demography as far as I know (I might be wrong, I’m not too familiar with Brisbane), hence my curiosity regarding the discrepancy in the swing. I don’t know much about Howarth, but if he is popular, then that could largely explain it.

@ Furtive Lawngnome
I don’t recall inviting a “policy debate”.

It is an inescapable reality, & truism, that Defence is a “Ministerial GRAVEYARD ” Defence has destroyed more political careers than any other portfolio. No one has been outstanding since Malcolm Fraser, & that was the 1960’s !. If your view of Dutton is justified then this appointment should be the end of him. That outcome ought to make you a very happy fella, surely !?
My friend Colonel Warwick Young who has been reactivated to run the quarantine in Sydney, shares a similar estimation to you, of Dutton. Warwick hold’s grave doubts, concerning Dutton’s intellectual capacity for the ministry just for starters ( i’m putting it far more politely than he did !) There are few people that i hold in higher estimation than Warwick so i’m keeping an open mind, & observing keenly. Instinctively i believe he is wrong but i don’t need to challenge him, & would prefer to request updates, & more information.

Dutton does indeed not sound intellectual, or even( particularly!?) intelligent. However we do have to remember that, that doesn’t necessarily equate to a negative in QLD !. Also if you were to apply the same standard, & judgments re image, appearance, communication etc. Then surely Albo ought to just give up right now , & not even contest the next election in the first place !!

re SHY…….!

It’s not about how smart he is or isn’t. He’s a front-line culture warrior and inherently unlikable besides.

Dickson is naturally more favourable to the LNP than a lot of people seem to realize. it’s largely rural, its Moreton Bay suburbs like Albany Creek, Bridgeman Downs etc will always vote LNP and will continue to trend that way, while the Labor voting parts around Strathpine are more analogous to Sydney’s outer suburbs, again trending towards the Coalition. It’s only the very Southern part, from about Ferny Hills onwards towards the city that you can expect Labor to have any sustained growth. Put another way, I don’t believe that any other LNP candidate would be likely to lose it.

Liberal hold, I honestly don’t see Dutton losing anytime soon.

Dutton is not invincible Bob, Just ask Cheryl Kernot in 2001. Lookup the term ”marginal seat” You don’t hold onto a marginal for 20+ years and not lose at some point.

Daniel,
I never said he was. If Dutton can survive like he did in 2007, 2016 & 2019 I would suggest that he has a great chance in 2022. For your point on Cheryl Kernot she only held the seat for one term & I know she was the former leader of the Democrats so I’m not sure what your point is.

Yep, even now I wouldn’t bet against him. The LNP will sandbag heaven and earth if it looks like Dutton’s in real danger. Doorknockers, dosh, dirty tricks, whatever it takes.

It seems like a lifetime ago when prior to Rudd being knocked off the first time as PM, there were rumblings that Dutton was scrambling to switch seats because it appeared like he would lose Dickson in 2010.

It wasn’t just “rumblings”. Dutton contested preselection for McPherson, lost to Karen Andrews, and had to crawl back to the electorate he tried to abandon.

Lock him in!

I think a good independent could cause some chaos this year and dislodge the election to Ali France

53-47 LNP retain as of 11/2021

I really don’t see much change from last election but perhaps a tiny swing to Labor. If Labor gets a swing to it in QLD then it will be under average here due to Dutton’s massive warchest and repeat candidates tend not to be successful outside of landslide years.

Entirely possible this could become the most marginal QLD seat and wouldn’t be surprise if Terry Young ends up with a larger majority than Dutton after the election. This will remain more marginal and will fall before my seat of Petrie.

This was close to one of labour’s worst qld votes ever. They did not win 2 seats in the senate which is a given.normally. only a dampened 3% swing in Dickson…does this portend a close result here?

Mick. It will be 53-47. Dutton will not lose. Coalition extremely likely to hold onto all their current seats and could even pick of Blair or Lilley even if they go backwards on the statewide TPP. Ali France lost last time what makes you think she has a better chance this time? Lavarch would stand a better chance because of her surname as her ex-husband once held this seat (And she made this seat extremely tight in 2016)

I probably see Brisbane being the most marginal seat post 2022 election. The reasoning being there is likely to be a swing against the LNP in Ryan and Brisbane, mostly to the Greens and concentrated in inner suburbs (out west to Indooroopilly and up north to Albion/Bowen Hills)

Generally agree with Daniel that the LNP will likely retain all their Queensland seats, and have a chance to pick up Blair if their is a strong swing in the more rural parts around Somerset Council. Lilley is likely to be a Labor hold, as the areas around Sandgate/Nudgee are all safe ALP at the state level and Anika Wells will have the advantage of incumbency going into this election.

The LNP might indeed hold it all. But Somerset/Lockyer/Scenic Rim are already very strong for the conservatives. There aren’t a lot of new votes for them there and it’s not growing like Toowoomba is, and certainly not like the metro South-East, where the LNP really fell apart at the state election. The LNP (or ON on their behalf) need to do much better in Ipswich than last year if they’re gonna flip Blair.

The Ipswich area is similar to Penrith and western Sydney. Both areas saw strong liberal support at the last federal election

I’m not saying Blair isn’t a possible LNP gain. I’m saying it makes much more sense for Ipswich to be the battleground rather than Somerset, given its size and the fact that it swings both ways, so to speak, from recent electoral history.

Not disputing that Blair remains a Labor hold, just correcting myself that I forgot about the Ipswich area being quite volatile and can swing either way depending on the political mood both state and federal, just like Western Sydney.

Like the Western Sydney battleground seats, choice of candidate will also determine whether the LNP can gain Blair, although on current national polling figures Labor would be favoured.

The Labor party must have some chance of picking up a seat or two in Qld. They are coming off their lowest base, since 1996. The tide is turning across Australia.

The Ipswich area is much stronger for Labor then Penrith. Queensland should see an improvement for Labor which will be reflected by the gain of 2 to 3 seats net

I would say Ipswich was formerly Labor leaning, but now with the rise of One Nation it is not as safe. Even some Western Sydney seats (McMahon and Werriwa) based on the stronger Labor areas of Fairfield and Liverpool (which probably resemble Ipswich and nearby Richlands more closely) are now trending towards swing districts.

Its interesting but twitter has lit up about a rumor of Peter Dutton challenging Scott Morrison. Its finally made it to the news and Dutton has denied it. But then again of course he would. Dutton challenged Malcolm Turnbull because he thought he would lose his seat. I’m wondering if this a driving the motivation for another challenge. The Roy Morgan poll out recently would make it hard for Dutton on currently polling to hold Dickson but I’m skeptical on how reliable it is.

There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 51.5% (up 4.5% points since early November) compared to the LNP on 48.5% (down 4.5% points). This result represents a swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Well that’ll write off Chisholm and any hopes of regaining any Victorian seat.
Imagine if that caused Seselja to lose his Senate seat to the Greens candidate – no less an Indigenous Wakka Wakka elder, Tjanara Goreng Goreng, given that Zed is one of Dutton’s besties.

PN
Well if there is any truth to this, any challenge would be futile. The election will already be A forgone conclusion surely ?
You’re wrong about Dutton challenging Turnbull. Turnbull broke their understanding, so Dutton formed the view that Turnbull would lose them govt, & it was his responsibility to stop the PM from destroying the govt. History is now the judge. Do you think Turnbull’s recollections have any credibility ?

I can’t see the logic of a Dutton challenge… with less than 6 months till the next election

I think the speculation is mistaking what is positioning for post election leadership in opposition to be meaning a possible challenge before the election.

LNP Insider
Are you suggesting Dutton would rather be the leader of OPPOSITION, than take $400k pa in defined benefit super ?. I wonder what you might think would motivate him to make such a choice ?

Mick
I’m struggling too

Not sure if LNP insider means that Dutton will try and run for the Liberal leadership post election only if the LNP loses. If they win, then Dutton may just stay on as Defence Minister or in any other cabinet portfolio under a returned Morrison PM.

Post election leadership jockeying is what I meant

To take it before the election will just get blame attached the loss.

Daniel Alfred Yock

Dutton is very unlikely to be leader after the election should the coalition lose as expected. For starters he will still be extremely marginal. And no prime minister in living memory will have a margin this low (Yes Howard and Rudd’s seats weren’t safe safe) but they still had decent margins when they first became pm and opposition leader.

And I doubt the coalition would want to risk losing in a landslide in 2025 with Dutton because his China fearmongering comments (Saying China can strike us with missiles etc) and the fact he is practically encouraging a war with china by literally talking about it every week. Sure we need to be aware but he is exaggerating the risks and the media such as Sky News fuels his comments. It won’t help him at all and personally I wouldn’t trust him to keep us safe in the event of an unlikely conflict.

He won’t play well in NSW and QLD and especially Tasmania. He may do fine in QLD and WA but that’s about it. You can’t win an election while losing tons of seats in Sydney and Melbourne.

Maybe this seat gets a rerun if Dutton wins and the coalition loses.He may not wish to stay around.

It’s time to get the Dick out of Dickson.

I would love to see Peter Dutton gone. It may be tight, a poll in his seat has him just ahead 51 – 49 on two party preferred in this seat. I still think it will be Josh Frydenberg who will be Liberal leader after the election if the Liberals lose whether Dutton holds his seat or not.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/peter-dutton-facing-nailbiting-contest-in-own-seat-of-dickson-at-federal-election/news-story/67cc92b3c85c8d8850261532966a8482

That sounds about right, and it’s the story of his career. Always teetering on the edge of oblivion in a bad election, yet just surviving by the skin of his teeth.

It’s interesting how little difference there is between the projected 2pp and the preferred prime minister. He’s been there for 20 years and has almost no personal following outside the general political divide. That makes sense too- he’s always been a largely absentee member.

To unbutton the Dutton would require a great deal of ALP resources that just might be better spent on lower hanging fruit. Seriously, if Dutton wasn’t around, would the women’s vote skew so much towards the ALP? His presence is a boon to the ALP, but it will require him staying very close to his electorate while he uncovers devilish ALP plots to our national security.

If Dutton survives in opposition after this election, I just can’t see a path for him to win the Lib leadership – other than Frydenberg losing Kooyong. He is too right-wing and much too divisive for southern tastes. Frydenberg is cleverly positioning himself a tad closer to the centre and being from Melbourne will mean he has the inside running. All Lib leaders come from either Vic or NSW – with the singular exception of useless Dolly Downer. There is no viable candidate from NSW, so Joshie has the field to himself for the hardest job in politics. The history of turning around a sinking ship has burned many party leaders. Even Menzies needed two goes.

The primary reason that there has not been a Liberal leader from Queensland is that historically (pre 2004 and 2007-10) there have been fewer Liberal MPs from Queensland than Victoria. However, with the the ALP doing better in Victoria from 1980 onward, the growth of Queensland`s population, the increasing urbanisation of Queensland (reducing the proportion of Nats) and Queensland`s lean to the right, that has reversed and thus a Queensland leader is increasingly likely compared to a Victorian leader.

Drongo
You’re absolutely entitled to your opinion of Dutton. However i wonder if you can actually conceive what someone who DOESN’T share your view would think ? OR WHY !? Like me for instance !
After just a year of Albanese the whole country will be screaming for anyone with any semblance of real strength, Irrespective of how repulsive they might appear to be. Historical precedents Fraser post Whitlam, Thatcher post Callaghan, Reagan post Carter, Trump post Obama……etc,etc,!

I said before that Peter Dutton is very likely to be leader next but to recap the reasons:
-the Liberal party room isn’t representative of the Australian public, let alone in the aftermath of a Labor victory
-the Liberal membership *definitely* isn’t representative of the Australian public
-he’s an outer-metro MP on the hard right of the party, which the Liberal party sees as the future of its demographic and ideological base
-while he, Terry Young and Gladys Liu are in the firing line, the vast majority of likely Liberal scalps are his factional enemies (and it’s likely a lot of the Morrison crowd will break for Dutton anyway)
-he’s a relentless attack dog, which is exactly what the right needs to regroup if Tony Abbott is any indication
-not that I agree with most of what WD said but boring establishment milquetoasts like Albo are particularly vulnerable to ideological headbangers with clear visions and policies, even if those visions are awful, and especially if those milquetoasts don’t really do anything with the power given to them and so don’t have a compelling counter-narrative

and most importantly

-the media has consistently reported that Dutton has the numbers in the party room

The fact that he’s a horrific human being is neither here nor there really. I remember my brother didn’t want to believe that Abbott could possibly get in, and he believed it right up until election night. I remember thinking the same about Donald Trump (in my defence, I think we all believed a lot more in opinion polling back then). And I’m sure lots of people hoped something or somebody was going to stop Johnson and Bolsonaro before they sailed into their respective premierships. On the whole, evil pricks tend to do pretty well in politics. Probably why the world sucks so much.