Curtin – Australia 2022

Curtin is a safe Liberal seat. Libs should retain.

But could always fall to an high-profile Independent and if a the Greens could pick up a seat from the Liberals (with Julie Bishop no longer the local MP) in WA, Curtin would be that seat (inner-metropolitan, tertiary educated voters). Labor’s primary is too low for a win but their preferences could elect a Independent or Green candidate who can appeal to this electorate.

This seat is a more conservative than Higgins, Brisbane or Ryan but if the Liberal vote collapses any further becomes an open race for preferences from second or third place.

First the first time ever the majority if Curtin voters have a Labor state member. That is so bizarre. You never know they might like a Labor federal member considering the current liberal is from the hard right whereas Julie bishop was moderate

Greens have announced their candidate, Cameron Pidgeon who ran for them in 2019 and Celia Hammond look set to be re-preselected. I’d keen to learn who Labor nominates.

Easy liberal hold.

Wonder if an Independent will run here like Kerryn Phelps, Zali Steggall or Helen Haines.

Demographically Curtin’s similar to Higgins, Goldstein, Kooyong etc, and yes Brisbane and Ryan (although those two have a slightly lower mean personal income, going by the 2016 census data). But the Libs still have a gargantuan margin in Curtin unlike any other comparable seat- which I’d chalk up to Julie Bishop’s personal popularity and the ineffectiveness of local opposition, rather than implacable conservatism. You’d basically need to replicate Warringah to bring it to an independent at the next election, not something worth counting on even if you believe the promises of double digit statewide swings across WA. Celia Hammond just doesn’t animate the kind of hatred Abbott did. She’s arguably the least offensive out of all the inner-city Libs fretting for their fiefdoms. So I doubt Simon Holmes and co will be doing much in Curtin

This seat is most comparable to Higgins, Wentworth, Warringah etc. However, with a much higher Liberal margin. This is completely due to Julie Bishop’s personal popularity. In Curtin, she was beyond popular, in fact she still is. Celia Hammond is certainly no Julie Bishop. However, should be an easy liberal hold baring a popular local independent (only ones I could think of would be Nedlands Mayor and Socialite Fiona Argyle, Cambridge Mayor Kerri Shannon, or former Cottesloe Mayor John Hammond. Also, the outside chance Labor could poll well, given on State results they would now hold this seat. Polls are currently suggesting a 10% swing to Labor in WA, and there is the potential for that swing to be higher in the Western Suburbs, where integrity and climate change are key issues.

Grew up in this seat and agree with the seat comparisons, it is very much a “small l” liberal seat. Julie Bishop was a visible local member and seemed to work hard despite how safe the seat is. Her replacement Celia Hammond is less so but will very likely be re-elected as locals consideration of their financial interests takes precedence, though most people in Curtin are far from impressed with the performance of the Federal Government.

I expect a sizeable swing against the Liberals with votes heading to Labor, Greens and any Independents that run, but the Cottesloe, Peppermint Grove and Claremont section of this seat are particularly immovable and will prevent it changing hands. If the Liberals lose Curtin then they will all lose all city based seats in WA and while they incredibly lost 2 of the 3 state seats here at the last election I can’t imagine that happening federally.

A Curtin Independent campaign has been launched by no candidate announced – chances a female candidate who can peel off small l liberal Liberal voters and non Liberal voters (who may tactically vote for an Independent to knock off Hammond).

This would be a stretch, but Hammond is no where nearly has popular locally as Julie Bishop was. A probably funded Independent with genuinely strong grassroots support would make this a must watch on election night.

A good independent could win Curtin. An independent (noting a former Liberal Party sitting member) won Curtin in the 1996 election, and a key part of this seat is the Churchlands state seat was held by an independent supporting Liberal who was the Education Minister in the Barnett Government. And Churchlands and Nedlands are held by Labor now.

And I know that state votes different to Commonwealth, but just demonstrating that the demographic of this seat could vote an independent social learning liberal.

James, I agree with your belief about this being a possible target for an independent. I think you meant to say social leaning Liberal rather than social learning Liberal. There is no such politician as a social learning Liberal.

yes remember……julie bishop won the seat of an ind liberal…… her presence will be missed by the wa liberals as she helped shore up liberal held seats over at least 2 elections

Kate Chaney has been announced as the main Independent candidate in Curtin. Liberal pedigree, with strong ties to the business community and the Curtin electorate.

A real challenge to Hammond.

Some years ago, I had business dealings with Kate Chaney. Sharp, switched on and a really nice woman. She could do very well there. If a few of the Voices get up – she and Allegra Spender could form the Liberal Royalty faction.

This is one seat I’m interested in for WA in regards to it’s ALP vs GRN contest. The past 4 elections the GRNs have been approx 2% of the vote lower than ALP but never overtaken them, hitting a ceiling in the mid-teens with the highest vote 17.91% in 2013. ALP was in the 20s% for 2000s but has been mid-high- teens throughout the 2010s. Just find it interesting that they tend have tended to trend together the past 4 elections and the GRNs have never overtaken ALP despite their low vote. (I had this seat as the one the GRNs would get 2CP first, even before Perth, with it’s higher GRN vote.)

How much impact will Kate Chaney (IND) have, I don’t know? I’d give her 9% as a baseline from previous IND and WAP 2019 votes (WAP in the de-registration limbo). With Voices behind her, she’d be a chance then to overtake GRN and ALP, and if the preference her, be 2nd on 2CP. However, the Lib vote is quite high here. It could end up, if WA polling is true, ALP get a big swing here and lockout both GRN and IND. One to watch for the 2CP contest as I think LIB will just hold on.

I grew up in Curtin and it’s one of those archetypal inner metro, socially and economically liberal seats, that could be won by a “teal independent” such as Kate Chaney. Julie Bishop was a popular local MP, however my sense is Celia Hammond is not the right fit for a seat like this, there is a perception she is a social conservative that is not representative of Curtin and little has been heard from her since she entered Parliament in 2019. Would be very interested to see some polling here, but my sense is that this will be a competitive seat between the Liberal and Independent at the next election. Chaney winning 25%-30% of the first preference vote maybe enough given the vast majority of Labor and Greens preferences would favour her candidacy over the incumbent Liberal. Definitely will be an interesting one to watch.

As a voter in Curtin, I’d say that Hammond has been completely invisible since being elected, and yes, her social conservative positions aren’t well suited to this electorate. But in Australia, money talks, and while the ALP hold two out of three state seats entirely in the area (and the fourth – Scarborough – that is mostly in Curtin), that is a massive outlier that will not be repeated. It’s too far out of reach for either Greens or certainly the ALP.

Having an Independent candidate in Kate Chaney with name recognition back to Fred Chaney would be good though – a reminder of the time when the WA Libs used to send genuine moderates back to Canberra like Chaney, his successor in Pearce in Judy Moylan, Mal Washer and even Don Randall. The religious conservatives have really taken over the Liberal Party north of the river in Perth, and I’m not sure it sits well. But getting any traction in this seat could be hard.

I do suspect if an Independent got the seat though, it could be held out of Liberal hands for a few terms.

Lots of revisionism going on here. Fred Chaney was never a moderate; he was always a big Howard backer (sans 1989) strong ‘dry’ and was very influential in WA’s mining industry.

Wreathy, I think you’re missing the point. Regardless of what Fred Chaney was or wasn’t, the modern iteration of the Liberal party is especially leaving voters in seats like Curtin unimpressed. The state branch of the Liberals has been taken over by religious/social conservatives and that is a good part of the reason why they are left as a rump in state politics, and the PM is a member of that group.

Curtin has always been a safe Liberal seat, but the current situation is turning a lot of voters off the Liberal party. I suspect the majority of voters would prefer Kate Chaney over Celia Hammond but we’ll see.

Malcolm
I actually think that you are missing not just “the point ” but quite a lot of the picture. Characterising the PMs faith, or some religious / idealogical following, as the cause of a loss of faith amongst voters maybe ironic, or even poetic in a weird sense. However the loss of any clear DIRECTION, let alone strong policy is really whats more pertinent. Curtin is hardly the only seat affected wouldn’t you agree ? i’ve written far too much on this subject so i won’t repeat myself.

While there isn’t a Liberal preselection divide that helped propel Allan Rocher to win Curtin off endorsed Liberal Ken Court in ’96. Kate Chaney has a shot, Labor hasn’t endorsed a candidate yet, there are some booths like Shenton Park, Subiaco, Nedlands (UWA) where the Green vote is higher, with a high profile candidate like Chaney she will likely suck up the non-Liberal candidates on primaries and be elected on the distribution of the preferences which will VERY STRONG from Labor/Greens to Independent.

Celia Hammond is in trouble. But history except 1996 favours her.

Malcolm, I understand all that and don’t necessarily disagree. However, my point was that this ‘moral panic’ about a lurch to the right in the Libs has been overblown. People claiming economic dries as moderates, that the Libs have never been more right wing than they are now (what a joke, they were yards more conservative in the 80s for the most part).

Regardless, predictions of the government’s implosion have been greatly exaggerated. At this point, I still expect them to lose and probably by a decent amount, but certainly no landslide defeat (despite Newspoll) and definitely no more than maybe one seat to an independent (which is unlikely to be Curtin).

Malcolm
I actually think that you are missing not just “the point ” but quite a lot of the picture. Characterising the PMs faith, or some religious / idealogical following, as the cause of a loss of faith amongst voters maybe ironic, or even poetic in a weird sense. However the loss of any clear DIRECTION, let alone strong policy is really whats more pertinent. Curtin is hardly the only seat affected wouldn’t you agree ? i’ve written far too much on this subject so i won’t repeat myself.

On the assumptions that Albo gets elected, & the Independents hold the balance of power. What will Chaney offer the voters of Curtin that will prove so irresistibly enticing ? Has she got some special tantric skills, or abilities that the Greens , & other Independents don’t posses in applying different painful levels of pressure on future PM Albanese’s non existent gonads !!?
Seriously !!!.”

Wreathy of Sydney
You’re so right. It is a point we seem to have to keep making. How can the libs keep moving to “the right”?. When they keep on adopting key Labor policies.

Last year, Chaney was briefly a member of the Labor Party. The West Australian is reporting today that the Liberal Party will be using this in an advertising campaign beginning today.

Being “briefly” a member of the Labor Party “last year” and running as an “independent” in a safe Liberal seat “this year” seems all too coincidental ….. there are too many questions:
– when – what is the timeframe of joining the Labor Party, leaving the Labor Party and deciding to run for Curtin.
– who – who were the forces behind this decision making process?
– why – if Kate Chaney left the Labor Party after a brief membership why did she leave?
Seriously – more about the Voices process that is not passing the sniff test.

I believe Chaney attended one Labor Party meeting, and decided to leave the party following that. So it was a very short amount of time.

is there a time frame for the labor party to put up their candidate for Curtin? Must it be done by a certain date and what is that based on the guesses on the election date?

Local media in Curtin is reporting that unpublished polling has the Liberals in “the low 30’s”.

https://twitter.com/michaelsilbert1/status/1505056912563646464

If this is anything close to accurate the Liberals are going to struggle holding Curtin. What is clear is the Liberal brand at the moment is seriously damaged in their inner urban heartlands across the country.

I think Kate Chaney has a strong shot, she has more campaign workers, material, placards and support in the western suburbs. Libs have posted attack ad fliers in Curtin (very remarkable) for a safe Liberal seat.

Labor has announced their candidate fairly late in the game.

I think Curtin may go to Kate Chaney – if she wins it would represent VERY large swing against the Liberals.

The West Australian reporting that Curtin is line ball 51-49 to Hammond (LIB). Primary votes of 42% LIB, 24% Chaney, 20% Labor, 9% Green, 2% UAP.

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election/federal-election-2022-celia-hammond-kate-chaney-neck-and-neck-in-fight-for-seat-of-curtin-polling-reveals-c-6356550

that Labor vote looks too high tbh. I’d say the ALP-GRN split will be more like 18-11, 17-12 or 16-13.
If it’s a Climate200 poll, probably features leading questions and glowing bios for Chaney and no-one else.

In the story it says the poll was conducted for The West Australian by Utting Research and it polled 718 voters in Curtin.

20% for Labor does sound too high considering they only got 17% at the last election. You would think they would be lucky to even match that with a competitive independent standing.

The poll does put the Libs in the <45% danger zone.

What would be the swing to Labor if the Chaney wasn’t standing in this seat? Perhaps there is an underlying large swing from LIB to ALP in these safe LIB seats and then the IND effect is on top of that. Credible Wentworth poll last week had Spender not far short of what Phelps got in 2019 on PV, but a 4% swing LIB to ALP. If its 4% in NSW, what in WA??

Malcolm: it’s worth remembering that at the 2021 state election, Labor won Nedlands, Churchlands and Scarborough with over 10% swings in every seat, and while I’d not expect anything even remotely similar, it would suggest that an upswing in the Labor vote in Curtin in 2022 is not unrealistic. Even with a strong Independent.

HS: I’d expect a swing to the ALP of somewhere in the 5-8% range if there wasn’t an independent. I really wouldn’t expect the ALP to get close to winning the seat, but there’s certainly a good chance of an Indy winning it in the right circumstances. And these seem to be those sort of circumstances.

I’d actually think that the Indy vote is mostly coming from disaffected Libs, and an attempt to link Cheney with the ALP is going to struggle against the history of the Cheney family being Liberals.

Liz Constable should have ran here. She has a record of holding Churchlands as an independent for 17 years.

@Ben – minor fix-up: under ‘2019 two party preferred’ Liberal should be in blue colour and Labor in red! (Unless you’re preempting the swing after 2022 :P)

Unless he is using United States colours as the sitting member would probably align herself perfectly with the Republican party which used the colour red.

Also something very interesting to note about WA federal elections…. The TPP vote has not dropped twice in a row for the coalition in a very long time as well as since 1996 there seems to be a pattern where the Liberals drop 1 election and then the 2 following elections their vote goes up and then the 3rd election it drops again (See the graph you will notice this) Does this mean the Liberals will repeat this pattern since 1996 and GAIN on the TPP in WA?

Daniel

no.
a party which is invisible wouldn’t do that well

Thanks PO, fixed now.

“Does this mean the Liberals will repeat this pattern since 1996 and GAIN on the TPP in WA?”

I’d say there’s somewhere between zero and zero chance of this happening.

Increased liberal margin. Vote loss at last election was due to the retirement of a high profile popular mp

Ben given everything we’ve heard from the ground in Curtin you’d have to be insane to predict an INCREASED margin in this seat. Liberals look to actually be in some danger here, still predicting they’ll hold though.

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the 2PP margin increased for the Libs – but it’s the margin vs Chaney that matters and the Libs have much less cause for comfort there.

There is not going to be an increased margin to the Liberals vs Labor in Curtin. Anyone who is vaguely familiar with the electorate and not a one-eyed ideologue realises that.

Given today’s news that the Greens will recommend voters place Chaney ahead of Labor and Liberal, I now think the most likely outcome is for Chaney to win this seat.

Yeah Damo, Greens are pretty independent minded voters generally, but I think perhaps a few would be a bit unsure whether to preference Chaney over Labor or the other way round. I don’t think Labor is going to make the final 2PP regardless, but the decision for the Greens to preference Chaney over Labor makes it even less likely. If I were a Greens or Labor voter in Curtin I’d probably strategically vote for Chaney. I’m thinking Chaney is more likely to win now as well, the LNP’s campaign thus far is putting the teal seats at greater risk of being lost.

The West Australian is getting pretty worried that Chaney will win, because they have published a front page attack on her in tomorrows newspaper, blasting her for not saying who she will support in a hung parliament.

I have talked to a fair few Greens voters in Curtin and most are either voting Chaney or putting her 2nd.

The campaign on the ground is nothing I have ever seen before, it feels like a genuine marginal electorate, more corflutes, flyers, and facebook ads than in labor/liberal marginal seats in WA. I suspect it will be very close.

I think this will be an IND gain, the local member in Hammond is not representative of the electorate and Chaney is very intelligent and persuasive.