Cowan – Australia 2022

Vince Connally is wasting his time running here, Likely to be a decent swing to Aly here. Unless of course the Liberals are running him here to reduce the swing towards Labor. Connally would be better off running for the senate. and the Liberals are better off trying to save furniture in WA

Daniel sadly for Connelly, the Libs have already announced their ticket.

I agree with Daniel, Vince Connally should run in Pearce instead of porter.

I’m quite surprised this seat picking up Balga, Mirrabooka and Beechboro (despite also gaining Liberal voting Stirling and Balcatta) only added 0.1% to Aly’s margin. I don’t doubt the redistributed margins have been calculated correctly, it just seems like a drastic undershoot.

Despite the redistribution, I suspect the apparent decision by Vince Connelly to challenge in Moore as opposed to running here all but confirms the WA Liberals aren’t too confident. I expect a decent swing to Labor here, which will settle over the next few election cycles to make it similar to Perth, marginal on paper, difficult to take off Labor in practice.

I expect a swing to Labor in the areas transferred from Stirling. Labor has not really campaigned in Stirling since 2004. Stirling used to be a classic marginal seat divided in two distinct areas by the Mitchell Freeway. This time around there will be a visible Labor campaign. I expect the same to occur in Perth in the areas that used to be Stirling. The big swing to Labor at the 2016 election in Burt and the redrawn Macarthur shows the effect a contest can have.

Labor held through most of the Howard years, Liberal held through the Rudd-Gillard years, and Labor since 2016.

Is this the most “anti-bellwether” seat? Does anyone have the stats on hand to easily check?

It certainly does seem to be the kind of seat where a popular local member can ‘dig in’ and withstand the national swing….

Cowan certainly has the most contrarian record going back to 1993. (Perhaps even going back to the 1984 enlargement?) I would suggest three reasons for this:

1. The Labor position in WA

By 1993, Labor’s standing in the state had eroded; Cowan and Stirling lost, Swan and Canning barely held. (Even 1990 was poor, but Labor managed to sandbag its WA marginals.) Conversely, under Beazley Labor’s position in his home state recovered quickly, winning back all the suburban seats lost in 1993 & 1996.

2. The personal vote of Graham Edwards

Post-Beazley, Labor’s WA vote sunk. Without Edwards, Cowan probably would’ve been lost in 2004. It went Liberal on his retirement in 2007, despite Labor’s improved statewide vote under Rudd.

3. The 2016 redistribution

Cowan is a seat with no natural boundaries covering a range of suburbs with contrasting party leanings. Hence, it’s quite volatile to redistributions. You can see from the graph above how much the redistribution prior to 2016 improved Labor’s position, and how crucial that was to the end result.

Vince Connelly, Liberal member for the soon-to-be-abolished seat of Stirling and unsuccessful preselection candidate for the safe seat of Moore, has confirmed his intention to run for Cowan via a press release.

And his intention to lose it seems.
Anne Aly won’t lose this seat for a while.

I wouldn’t guarantee a Labor win, Aly only just won in 2019 against a lower profile liberal candidate, so Vince Connelly as a pseudo incumbent could poll well if national vote is close.

I think the last time two sitting MPs contested the same House of Reps seat was Bruce in 1996.

Yoh An

Please don’t try and say Cowan might be lineball.
Any myth of a strong LNP showing in WA is utter garbage.

Well, there was talk of a strong ALP showing last time following McGowan’s 2017 landslide and that never eventuated, so people can distinguish between state and national politics. Then again, this time post 2021 is different with east vs west debate on covid travel restrictions, so there could be a stronger ALP vote this time.

In response to David, that occasion was in the seat of Bruce with then Labor MP Alan Griffin beating Liberal Julian Beale. A similar situation with Labor’s Anne Aly winning over Vince Connelly could also eventuate if local factors (state border closures) prove decisive and deliver Labor a stronger vote in WA.

@David Nope, it was Flinders in 2019

Ben, that was Greg Hunt vs Julia Banks (former Liberal MP for Chisholm who ran as an independent). However, that was slightly different compared to the 1996 contest in Bruce. Bruce 1996 would be classed as a ‘redistricting race’ where one MP has a district abolished and must run against another incumbent. Julia Banks wasn’t ‘forced’ to run against another incumbent, she could have recontested Chisholm as an independent.

Ah yes, Flinders. What a quixotic decision that was.

Let’s put it another way. Cowan will be the first House of Reps contest between a Labor MP and a Coalition MP contest in 25 years.

Labor hold. Aly will win by 3% at least.

The betting markets certainly believe Aly will safely retain her seat. Labor are $1.08 to retain on Sportsbet, with the Coalition out at $6.50.

I am in the redistribution area from Stirling to Cowan. Aly has picked up very Labor-heavy areas such as Mirrabooka, Balga, and Westminster. I like her and am excited to have a MP that shares my values (no offence Michael Keenan or Vince Connelly).

Also, I don’t think we should underestimate the sheer disdain people have against Scomo atm. Our state parliament is almost all Labor, people might follow that trend in feds too.

I did think it was strange that Connelly is running in Cowan. He is from Scarborough and I imagine his main supporters will be in Curtin and Moore. Maybe he is on a kamikaze mission

Some posters mentioned Connelly tried to challenge Ian Goodenough for preselection in Moore but lost, so maybe he is just running so that he doesn’t feel like a ‘loser’ by retiring.

Connelly is probably different to others who resigned after their seats were abolished in redistributions, as he is only a first term MP and could easily run for a state seat. Current projections also indicate WA could gain a seat at the next reapportionment, which means he would have an opportunity to run federally as well.

Why is Anne Aly in blue on the 2019 two-party-preferred result and Isaac stewart in red?

Just a typo.

all the people saying libs arent gonna do well in WA is odd as a former resident i grew up in the Howard years when Labor had been in for god know how long in WA and yet Libs always did well. given then new boundariers are about even this isnt a shoein for Aly the fact they effectively have 2 sitting mps running for a very marginal seat and 15-20% of the electorate coming from Perth which negates the incumbency vote that could go either way

Ben close

Anne Aly has the incumbency vote nailed down, mainly as she’s simply more well known.
Also as a “former resident” you’d hopefully stop writing as if you still knew the place like the back of your hand.

Ben close, Labor has about a 20% margin based on state election results, GLHF.

Prediction: ALP retain, 5% margin.

Your prediction sounds right Ben (not Ben close) – although I would probably say a Labor hold with a narrower 2-3% margin.

Daniel – whilst Labor holds the state seats with super safe 10%+ margins, these are unrealistic when overlaid to a federal election. Margins of 5-10% (outside the marginal category) would be more meaningful in this case.

I don’t believe at all there will be a 10% swing to Labor in WA, I suspect it will be between 3-5% and that Swan will fall, however Pearce is line ball and Hasluck will likely stay with the Liberals. Tangney was always a fever dream for Labor.

@Yoh An – I think defeated MPs get a payout that retiring MPs don’t. It’s why Christensen is running for PHON in an unwinnable position.

I don’t see why Vince Connelly won’t get a sophomore surge in the former Stirling parts of the seat. Maybe Cowan will remain the anti-bellwether, though it’s hard to imagine Labor gaining Swan and Pearce but losing Cowan.

The Liberals have no hope in Cowan. Vince Connelly is a strong candidate sure but Anne Aly is even stronger and will ride the sizable swing against the Liberals in WA. Would be surprised if the margin isn’t above 5% post election.

This seat is more of the old Stirling than it is of the old Cowan but it takes in the strongest Labor areas of both Stirling and Cowan. Voters redistributed from Stirling might not approve of Connelly abandoning them and running off to Moore before returning reluctantly. Anne Aly definitely is more well known than Connelly. I’d say that Aly will retain this with an increased margin.

I don’t think many, even in the Libs, would describe Connelly as a strong candidate. Half of his speeches in parliament made no sense.

They weren’t all that sad to see his seat disappear so they could use him as an expendable in Cowan.

The redistribution benefits noone as you can see her notional increase based on redistribution is only 0.1% so that won’t be a factor here it’ll down to the swing. If libs lose here expect them to make a comeback in 2025 if the government changes and Topple Aly then. WA will most likely recover the lost seat after next review.

@ John Smith agreed, The Old Stirling used to be a polarised seat with two very distinct ends divided by the Mitchell Freeway in the 2000s it was a closely divided seat but since then Labor has underformed. Like my comments in the Perth thread, Labor has not really bothered campaigning in Stirling since 2004 and so expect there to be swing to Labor in those areas as this will be the first Labor campaign in a generation. On these boundaries Labor would have got 54% TPP in 2004, which was a bad year in WA for Labor. If Labor’s WA vote returns to 2001 levels it maybe the case this will be a relatively safe Labor seat maybe 6%

A Labor victory might be short lived in wa. Wa may well regain a seat in 2023

Can anyone in here explain why people vote for candidates that cannot actually represent them?

This could be vulnerable in 2025 especially after redistribution it will most likely she’d Labor territory in the east. Also will McGowan gone and covid over it will go back to somewhere around the pre election nationally very ,arginal. Labor will either abandon its wa gains as they are expecting to lose their 2022 gains in order to shift resources to other states where they want to pick up seats or spend valuable resources sandbagging these seats. However the seat may be notionally better for Labor and she could choose to contest there

Is Cowan a reverse bellwether?

The seat has existed since 1984. Labor held it from 1984 until 1993, a year that Labor won government (with an increased majority). The Liberals held it from 1993 until 1998 when Labor regained it (but the Coalition won government) and held it until 2007. In 2007, the Liberals won it despite Labor winning that election in a landslide. The Liberals held it from 2007 until 2016 when Labor narrowly regained it desptie the Coalition winning government. Labor has held it since 2016, with Anne Aly (currently a Cabinet minister) as the incumbent member since then.

Labor TPP and swing trends in Cowan:

1984: 54.0% (–3.9%) (Labor hold)
1987: 53.2% (–0.8%) (Labor hold)
1990: 50.9% (–4.6%) (Labor hold)
1993: 49.2% (–1.8%) (Liberal gain)
1996: 47.6% (–1.5%) (Liberal hold)
1998: 53.6% (+7.6%) (Labor gain)
2001: 55.5% (+2.4%) (Labor hold)
2004: 50.4% (–4.7%) (Labor hold)
2007: 48.3% (–2.5%) (Liberal gain)
2010: 43.7% (–5.0%) (Liberal hold)
2013: 42.4% (–1.2%) (Liberal hold)
2016: 50.7% (+5.2%) (Labor gain)
2019: 50.8% (+0.1%) (Labor hold)
2022: 60.8% (+10.0%) (Labor hold)

@nptheredustribution will probably see it loseparts of swan to hasluck and make it vulnerable to an lnp gain goodenough should consider running here or in pearce

What ate the demographic s in this seat?

@ John
Interesting question and i have looked at Census Data for you. It is actually quite ethnic and the % of people who speaking a language other than English is 37% much higher than the Australian Average. The % of Foreign born is 45% again much higher than the national average and the % of Muslims is 6.5% more than double the National Average.

Interesting. I think aly could be vulnerable to the right redistribution especially if it sheds those heavily Labor aresas

@John @Nimalan Cowan is usually a marginal seat anyway.

Also, on the Churchlands thread I’ve made a map of target state seats in WA, feel free to check it out.

The Labor margin might be trimmed down if it shifts west and towards the coast. Add to that, the margin is inflated following Labor’s overperformance in 2022.

Anne Aly has successfully defended a marginal seat twice now if you include 2022. She now has a minister’s profile. I do see a calibration swing but don’t think she’s super vulnerable. The Liberals would be better off defending Moore and working on clawing back seats that flipped in 2022.

@votante liberals will hold Moore. 2022 was labors chance Labor will be too bust devoting resources to defence. I think cowan will move into the northern parts of curtin and shed all of swan bar Bullaburra so Beechworth and lock Ridge areas in the east. To be fair she won those when Labor were on a high in wa with Mark McGowan and covid boosting the Labor vote. A correction back to the coalition could make the seat in play especially if the coalition retakes all the votes they lost in 2022. The 3 factors hel
ING Labor in wa no longer exist so the coalition will certainly be looking to make inroads here I’d right off swan tangey and pearce back to the libs

Further to Votante point,
Even without the Pandemic factor, as i mentioned in the Perth thread prior to the election i expected the areas in Cowan transferred from the old Stirling to swing to Labor regardless as this was an area Labor has not really bothered campaigning for many years to the Labor vote was suppressed.

We will, wait to see who the liberals select

Also I’m not sure what the numbers were in 2022 but based on 2019 numbers cowan would be trading heavy Labor territory for heavy liberal territory. Add in the correction back to the libs and we could have ourselves a tossup