ALP 10.3%
Incumbent MP
Richard Marles, since 2007.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Geelong and surrounding areas. Corio covers most of the Geelong urban area and those parts of the City of Greater Geelong north of the centre of Geelong.
The seat of Corio is an original federation seat. It was originally a marginal seat, switching between conservative parties and the ALP, but since the 1970s it has become a relatively safe Labor seat.
Corio was first won in 1901 by Richard Crouch, a Protectionist candidate and the youngest member of the first Parliament. He was re-elected in 1903 and 1906 before losing in 1910. He later returned at a much older age to hold the neighbouring seat of Corangamite for the ALP from 1929 to 1931.
Corio was won in 1910 by the ALP’s Alfred Ozanne. He lost in 1913 to Liberal candidate William Kendell, but won the seat back in 1914. Ozanne lost again in 1917.
The seat was won in 1917 by Nationalist candidate John Lister. He held the seat for the next decade, losing in 1929.
The seat of Corio was won by Labor candidate Arthur Lewis in 1929, but he only held it for one term before losing to the United Australia Party’s Richard Casey.
Casey joined the Lyons ministry in 1933, and became Treasurer in 1935. When Robert Menzies became Prime Minister in 1939, he saw Casey as a rival for the leadership, and moved him into a lesser role, before appointing him as Ambassador to the United States. Casey played a key role in cementing Australia’s alliance with the United States in the Second World War.
He returned to Parliament as Member for La Trobe in 1949, and served as a key minister in the Menzies government until his appointment as a member of the House of Lords in 1960. He also served as Governor-General from 1965 to 1969.
The 1940 Corio by-election was won by the ALP’s John Dedman. He was appointed to the ministry upon the formation of the Curtin Labor government in 1941, and served in a key role in the War Cabinet. He was particularly responsible for war production, post-war reconstruction and the creation of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). He lost Corio in 1949 to Liberal candidate Hubert Opperman.
Opperman had been a prominent Australian cyclist, and had rode in the Tour de France on a number of occasions. He served as a Cabinet minister from 1960 to late 1966, before leaving Parliament in 1967 to serve as High Commissioner to Malta.
The 1967 Corio by-election was won by the ALP’s Gordon Scholes. Scholes was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in early 1975 after the resignation of his predecessor after a disagreement with the Whitlam government. Scholes served in the role for the remainder of the Whitlam government. He served as a minister in the Hawke government from its election in 1983 until 1987, and retired in 1993.
Corio was won in 1993 by Gavan O’Connor. He joined the Labor frontbench in 1998 and served on the role until 2007. In 2006 he was challenged for preselection by ACTU Assistant Secretary Richard Marles, who won. O’Connor ran as an independent for Corio in 2007, but polled a distant third.
Richard Marles has been re-elected four times since his first win in 2007, and became deputy leader of the Labor Party after the 2019 election.
Assessment
Corio is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Richard Marles | Labor | 47,010 | 47.6 | +4.2 |
| Alastair Thomson | Liberal | 33,426 | 33.8 | -2.8 |
| Amber Forbes | Greens | 12,902 | 13.1 | +1.4 |
| Desmond Sanborn | United Australia Party | 5,414 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Informal | 3,648 | 3.6 | -1.1 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Richard Marles | Labor | 59,572 | 60.3 | +2.1 |
| Alastair Thomson | Liberal | 39,180 | 39.7 | -2.1 |
Polling places in Corio have been divided into four areas: central, north, south and east.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 55.5% in the south to 68.1% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 9.9% in the north to 16.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 9.9 | 68.1 | 16,376 | 16.6 |
| Central | 15.0 | 60.0 | 15,876 | 16.1 |
| South | 16.3 | 55.5 | 9,889 | 10.0 |
| East | 14.6 | 67.3 | 8,790 | 8.9 |
| Pre-poll | 12.1 | 57.2 | 33,068 | 33.5 |
| Other votes | 13.5 | 58.2 | 14,753 | 14.9 |
Election results in Bendigo at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Labor hold but will be interesting to see the progression of the Greens vote in the inner suburbs of Geelong, which somewhat mirrors the Greens vote trend in the gentrifying inner suburbs of Melbourne, albeit at a far smaller scale of course.
House prices in the eastern suburbs of Geelong have also risen significantly relative to the rest of Geelong over the last half a decade. Interestingly this hasn’t had a corresponding increase in the Greens vote in the area at the last few of elections, state and federal – nor has it impacted the TPP against the ALP which continually sits at the high 60’s/low 70’s mark while the Greens primary continues to hover at between 6-12% give it take – so will be interesting to see if there’s finally a bump in the Greens vote in the area at this election.
This seat is interesting because it’s basically the election in miniature.
Labor got big swings to them in the affluent and inner city part of the seat, while suffering a loss in the more working class and outer suburban areas. Highton and Newtown having the same 2PP margin as Bell Park and Norlane is actually quite ridiculous.
As Matt notes, Greens did indeed advance in inner Geelong, actually displacing the Liberals in the top two in a couple of inner city seats.
Interestingly, Corio, Corangamite, Bendigo and Ballarat had a slightly better vote for YES for the voice than the republic when adjusting to current boundaries. This is despite the fact that voice did much worse statewide and nationwide than the Republic showing how much more progressive these provincial areas have become compared to the nation as a whole. Newcastle and Cunningham show the same trend.
@Mark Mulcair that was because of lockdowns being more unpopular among outer suburban, regional and rural people than inner-city people and among lower and middle-class people than upper-class people and elites.
@Nimalan: Interesting, has anyone done a look at seats that voted more yes to the voice than the republic? Other seats I’ve found are mostly inner city seats, Melbourne, Cooper, Wills, Canberra, Sydney, Wentworth, Grayndler, Warringah, Mackellar, Brisbane & Griffith.
Some others include Moreton, Blair, Franklin & Isaacs. Probably some more I didn’t notice
@drake youve also got to remember the seats look different now thought compared with 25 years ago both demographically and area
@ Drake
I havnt seen any analysis done by others so it is just what i have looked at for my curiosity. I have noticed the seats that voted more for the Voice than the Republic they generally come in two clusters inner cities including those you mentioned as well as Perth and a provincial seats that have seen tree/sea changers like Newcastle, Cunningham, Corio, Corangamite, Bendigo and Ballarat. Another example is Fraser which voted more Yes than Goldstein while in 1999 Goldstein voted more Yes than Fraser by 2%. Lalor is interesting as it also voted more Yes for the voice but it probably reflects the massive growth in the South Asian community there and much of the suburbs did not exist in 1999. It is probably what is happening in Blair with the growth of Greater Springfield bringing in a more educated and CALD demographic which softened the No vote.
What is interesting is most of the Teal seats such as Kooyong, Goldstein, North Sydney, Curtin had a slightly worse result for the voice than the Republic. The Northern Beaches was an exception and it was a surprise to me especially as it does not have as many young renters etc. Wentworth also voted more Yes but that could be due to more gentrification around Kings Cross etc (most densely populated part of the electorate) rather than the Old money becoming more progressive.
@ John, i am using Ben’s calculations on the link below to use 1999 results on current boundaries.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/53501
@Nimalan
Looking at some other areas that I think have trended towards Labor
Robertson: Republic 0.9% better
Greenway: Republic 2% better
Macquarie: Republic 0.9% better
Holt: Voice 1.6% better
Dunkley: Republic 1.6% better
Kingsford Smith: Republic: 0.4% better
Swan: Voice: 0.3% better
@ Drake
Good points, on the above seats
I think Dunkley is a sign of gentrification especially around Seaford maybe a continuation of what we saw in Issacs. I think Kingsford Smith, Swan have seen more uni students and young renters. Robertson is interesting as it is a classic bellwether maybe it is getting a commuter demographic like Corangamite where better educated voters have moved in due to high property prices in Sydney itself. Macquarie is ALSO interesting, i think the Blue Mountains is much more progressive than it once was but i doubt that about the Hawkesbury it will be good to compare Macquarie at a micro-level in those two regions to see if they are more polarised than in 1999. I thought Richmond may also be more pro-Yes but that was not the case but maybe if we isolate Byron Shire only it maybe more progressive.
I would say Holt and Greenway can be explained by the rapid growth of the Indian community they are in the Top 9 for Indian ancestry in the nation.
@Nimalan the Blue Mountains is definitely more progressive now considering that it’s now a safe Labor seat that Labor has held without interruption since 1995 with the sole exception of the 2011 state election when the Liberals won it due to a massive landslide statewide, but Labor regained it in 2015 and their margin there has increased ever since and now it’s not considered in play. A similar thing happened in Wyong and in most Newcastle seats bar Port Stephens (Maitland is not in Newcastle, it is in Maitland, a different city). I think in the future though the Liberals may be able to gain ground in at least one Newcastle seat other than Port Stephens. In 2011 the safest Liberal seat in Newcastle other than Port Stephens was Charlestown. In 2015 Labor won all the Newcastle seats, with the most marginal one (other than Port Stephens) being Newcastle itself; in both 2019 and 2023 it was Swansea. However on notional TPP, the Liberals did better than any other Newcastle seat at any one of those elections (bar Port Stephens in 2011, 2015 and 2019 as well as Charlestown in 2011 and Newcastle in 2015).
@ Nether Portal
You are correct Blue Mountains used to be seen as a bellwether but not anymore it was one of 4 seats that helped Bob Carr achieve a 1 seat majority in 1995. With respect to the Hunter Region i do agree that Maitland and Port Stephens are the ones that Libs should target in a good year. The issue however, in suburban Newcastle is that the most Liberal suburb tends to be Merewether/The Junction. This is where Newcastle’s elite live and the families of private school students reside. The issue however, is that the Merewether’s proximity to the CBD means that at both a federal and state level it gets drawn into the unfavourable seats for the Libs. It is the same for the wealthier parts of Geelong such as Newtown, Drumcondra, Rippleside which are fashionable but being a smaller city gets included with working class suburbs. For this reason, outside of a repeat of 2011 result i cant see Libs winning suburban Newcastle seats especially when the other seats such as Strathfield, Gosford, The Entrance which libs can focus on instead in addition to reversing the 2023 losses.
Drumcondra and Rippleside are very small suburbs. Whilst Newtown/Highton are rich by Geelong standards, they aren’t rich enough to get people to vote entirely on economic interests. These areas are actually pretty progressive (20% Green vote, high yes vote, lot of young people).
I actually could see some of the Geelong/Wollongong/Newcastle seats becoming Labor vs Green seats in the future. Greens out-polled Libs in 9 polling booths in Corio, including some places you wouldn’t expect like Thompson and North Shore. Greens actually out-polled Labor in booths in Ballarat/Bendigo/Corio/Corangamite/Cunningham and Newcastle which further shows their leftward tilt.
On Robertson I’d be curious comparing the Terrigal booths 1999 vs 2023. That area seems to vote somewhat similar to the Northern Beaches and seems to be slowly becoming more left wing (see Labor almost winning it in 2023 nsw election).
For the Voice Referendum, Corio had its poorer areas having a higher No Vote and wealthier areas had a higher Yes Vote but other seats like Deakin, its wealthier areas had a higher No vote and, more middle-class areas had a higher Yes Vote.
@ Drake
i agree Drumcondra/Rippleside are small suburbs with no booths. As a local, i was wondering if you think that they would be among the best Liberal booths in the Geelong metro area. The only reason i ask that is that i do feel Geelong will have small pockets of that Private School culture. Geelong Grammar is an elite school where our King even went for a bit.
North Shore surprises me that Greens outpolled Libs it among the most deprived suburbs in Victoria will be interesting if that one day happens in Norlane as well.
@ Marh
Agree with your example of Deakin also Aston showed a similar pattern with high Yes vote along the Belgrave line while the most expensive suburb Lysterfield voted solidly No. Bruce is another example where Dandenong, Doveton were largely Yes voting but affluent Narre Warren North, Berwick voted No.
@Nimalan good points.
@Marh the Voice referendum wasn’t exactly a partisan divide in terms of No vote margin. It was more a CBD-inner-outer suburban-regional-rural divide. On the Central Coast, Robertson is more marginal than Dobell but Dobell had a higher No vote because Dobell is an outer-suburban working-class seat while Robertson is more mixed (Gosford is the main urban centre of the Central Coast and is a bellwether area; Terrigal is a coastal town that votes like the Northern Beaches on the state level (solidly Liberal, no teals) on both the state and federal level (but especially on the state level); Woy Woy is a working-class, Labor-voting area). The highest No votes in Robertson were in the booths where the Liberals consistently outperform Labor on all levels of politics, which includes Erina, Mount White, Peats Ridge and Somerset (the latter three of those are semi-rural suburbs while Erina is very affluent).
You can even see a similar thing in regional NSW. Coffs Harbour voted No but it was only by about 62% (my estimate) but the rest of the Mid North Coast (including the second-largest city in the region, Port Macquarie) voted over 70% No. I grew up in the Camden Haven region and I still have family there. That are has always voted the Coalition (currently federal Nationals, state Liberals; the federal division being Lyne and the state electoral district being Port Macquarie). In addition to voting strongly for the Coalition, at the referendum it was very strongly against the Voice, with over 75% of the area voting No (higher than the electorate average of 73%). It gets bigger in the smaller towns: the No vote was over 60% in Bonny Hills, Hannam Vale, Lake Cathie and Laurieton; over 65% in Dunbogan, Herons Creek, Kendall, North Haven and West Haven; over 70% in Johns River, Kew and Lorne; over 75% in Coopernook and Moorland; and over 80% in Comboyne and Landsowne. One note I will add though is that many people in smaller towns (Comboyne, Coopernook, Hannam Vale, Herons Creek, John’s River, Landsdowne, Lorne, Moorland and West Haven) don’t vote at their town’s booth for multiple reasons, one being that they didn’t know their town had a booth (usually booths are at high schools, and the local high school there is in Kew).
The Voice was a huge divide between small country towns and elite inner-city suburbs.
@Nimalan some wealthy places did indeed vote No but they were mostly quite conservative places. In Wentworth the result was split between the northern and southern ends of the electorate. The southern end, which is more tealish and includes Bondi and the surrounding suburbs, voted strongly Yes, while the northern end, which is more conservative and includes Vaucluse and the surrounding suburbs, voted strongly No. Both areas are affluent but they’re a different kind of rich.
If you look at the booth results for Wentworth, you’ll see that there were a lot of Yes votes coming out of Bondi (73.7% Yes) and Bondi Junction (68.1% Yes), but also many No votes coming out of Dover Heights (50.8% No) and Vaucluse (52.2% No).
@ Nether Portal
You are 100% correct about different wealthy areas and voice voting patterns. Vaucluse and Dover Heights are lower density, more single family homes, nuclear families etc which why even within Teal seats there are least Teal parts. As i mentioned earlier in thread, i personally feel that the reason Wentworth voted more for the Voice than the Republic unlike Kooyong, Higgins, Goldstein, North Sydney, Bradfield and Curtin maybe due to areas like Kings Cross, Bondi etc being more progressive than in 1999 rather than Dover Heights, Rose Bay being more progressive. I really surprised that Mosman which is demographically like Dover Heights, Rose Bay voted strongly Yes and i dont have an explanation why Northern Beaches are more Yes voting than in 1999.
@Neither Portal, I would say state factors play a role as well where QLD/SA has a higher No vote than VIC on identical areas. Outer East Melbourne doesn’t look any much different to Outer Suburban Brisbane but latter mostly has a significantly higher No vote.
@Niminlan and @Neither Portal, that is why even the University Educated isn’t a monolithic group. Wealthy Businesspeople, Doctors for example are more conservative on average and more likely to say economic responsibility so they probably mostly voted No.
@ Marh
You are correct 100%, Education does not explain every social divide. Like you said Wealthy businesspeople, Doctors, Investment Bankers, Private sector workers are more Conservative than public sector workers, academics, social workers etc.
@Nimalan, I would also say “No Religion” isn’t monolithic either as it tends to classify a young hippie in Fitzroy, Chinese immigrant in Box Hill and Anglo working class in Frankston into the same category.
@ Marh
Correct about No Religion, all those areas you mentioned have high % of no religion but for different reasons. Anglo working class areas in the Hunter, La Trobe valley also have % of no religion just like Frankston. Areas with low % of no religion generally include CALD areas like Western Sydney, North/West Melbourne etc. Casey LGA has a much lower % of no religion that than neighboring Frankston council but then again its CALD community is way higher. That makes any Liberal strategy of moving towards social conservatism rather than Fiscal difficult because Anglo working class in Dunkley dont care about abortion, LGBT issues etc while Afghans in Bruce/Holt will likely care about that but then they will not vote for Libs because of Palestine.
@Marh Plenty of people also say they are religious for cultural reasons whilst being non practising. From personal experience plenty of Catholics tend to do that.
It’s not uncommon for secular Jews to say that they are ethnically Jewish rather than as a faith.