Cook – Australia 2022

1. Some of your points mentioned seems to be replicating Vic Libs. Matthew Guy like Erin O’Toole is on paper on the moderate faction of the party but they use the same right-wing language and campaigns. Days before O’Toole was removed as a leader, he made a video blaming Trudeau for truckie movements and was sympathetic to the movement even their ideology. The Conservative Party member even spoke at their rallies for their support. It’s only after they got so bad that the Conservatives had to moderate their stance.Sound similar, Vic Libs were blaming Andrews for the civil unrest in September 2021 even though it was anti-vax groups and their ideologies that was caused it. Two months later when the pandemic bill was put into parliament, Vic Libs oppose it on the ideological stance as mentioned previously. the same group rallied and incited violence like bringing nooses. Like the Conservatives, a large proportion of Vic Libs members did the same on speaking at their rallies and denied their extremism. This even led their federal counterparts to distance themselves from attendance. During that period, Vic Libs’ social media even promoted people to fight against the bill. Only when it got so bad and public outrage that Matthew Guy partly retreated and told people not to attend their extremist parts of the rally. I won’t go through the Canadian Conservative party’s history and their political system besides that I think the truckies actually hurt Conservative opinion polls and something is similar in Victoria with LNP has shown a drop of support in the polls just after the November rallies

2. Now Scott has a reputation as at least some one who is loose with the truth. It will be impossible for him to run a scare campaign. the aim of the budget was to boost the liberals stocks but they are not getting clear air.. because of his troubles with his only side.. free unfavourable character assessments concerns over the 2007 preselection.etc what ever he touches turns to s…t… and there’s is an air of desperation… maybe the by-election here

3. Mention of the Peter Principle.. in an organisation with a clear hierarchy…everyone gets promoted till they reach their level of incompetence..there they stay and proceed to stuff up the organisation..when all reach that level the organisation collapses.. liberal party.. national party and their senior leaders

4. 100% MQ. The Peter Principle wrt this Prime Minister has been a regular discussion in my office lately. I wonder whether the intrigues of the preselection for the 2022 Cook by-election will be as juicy as the 2007 version. There’s got to be a few campaigns in the works already.

5. Well, Mr. Morrison has won his court case against his own party. A victory to be celebrated, to be sure. But by whom, it remains to be seen.

   Hawke must control of the 33% of the FPLP that doesn’t want to tear Morrison limb from limb, because I see no reason for Morrison to take this action otherwise. For all the “ruthlessness” we’ve heard of lately, surely this case damages the one thing he holds most dear (retaining power) by alienating local rank-and-file (of course, it’s well known he has no regard for a preselection 🤣🤣). Regardless of whether it’s friendship, religion or necessity that caused Morrison to override local party members, this will hurt his chances across NSW (where he needs to retain and in fact gain seats), not only because it will piss off local members who will be less likely to hand out HTVs and help the campaign on the ground, but it means more “Fierravanti-Wells incidents” will be occurring in the lead-up to and during the campaign. Just today, there was Catherine Cusack repeating her condemnation of the PM and the “ruined” party he leads (the party she is a member of). So, we can expect more leaks, more character assessments, and more “I don’t care” responses from the PM.

   This has brought up, in some circles, the question of a split. It’s gradually appearing more clear that the “broad church” has problems and grievances. In my opinion, the moderates are so pathetically uncommitted to their values (see Sharma only crossing the floor on RDA after the vote was already lost) that they will probably just sit at watch as their seats are consumed by Voices candidates. The capital-c Conservatives of the Liberal party (and perhaps elements of the Nationals) have demonstrated their ability to call out the behaviour of Morrison, if only to work towards a Dutton reign, as well as not toeing the party line more generally (the Member for Manila). These types are under less threat from right/far-right parties, and thus have more wriggle room, but they are making it clear that they aren’t happy.

   Anyway, on the topic of the court case, it seemed a bad outcome either way, as winning puts off your local members, and losing leaves you open to attack (“His own party doesn’t want to listen to him”/”Who’s really in charge”). Would love thoughts on influence of this case on NSW prospects, what it puts in play.

6. Greens candidate is Catherine Dyson: https://greens.org.au/nsw/person/catherine-dyson

   So far she is the only option on the left side of politics in this electorate as Labor has yet to (and may not?) nominate anyone for the seat.

7. douglas – I don’t think it matters. Morrison’s trying to stop Dutton succeeding him after the election. His thinking is that every democratic preselection that goes ahead is a sure vote for Dutton in the party room. He’s raking leaves on a windy day, and a couple pet stooges here and there aren’t going to change the outcome. Dutton already has the numbers and the moderates, whom Frydenberg would rely on in a leadership race, are headed for a wipeout.

   The fate of the Liberal Party really depends on the fate of Dickson. If Dutton hangs on, the head office oligarchs will be broken and the Libs shift dramatically and permanently to the right. If he loses then the Right might have trouble coming up with a credible candidate to rally behind, and the soap opera continues for a few more years.

8. I have voted Liberals for 42 years, there is just no way I can even give Scott Morrison 2nd last on the ticket, he will be dead last. The only true conservative and real Lady in this race for Cook, is One Nation’s ticket holder, Gaye Cameron. She is genuine, is easy to chat to, and has more experiences in life than Morrison. Labor, who IS running for Labor they haven’t even been seen in the electorate.

9. My question is who the liberals run for the by-elections……Deves? I thought if Coleman loses in Banks he would be a good choice here.

10. There will always be some ambitious suit swimming around for a safe seat preselection. Can’t see why they’d parachute in someone from another seat.

11. 10 years ago Deves would have won. I was just joking.

12. @Max Shillings, I am left leaning but respect your sincerity and you standing by your conservative principles. You are able to know a dud when you see one and adjust your vote accordingly. Respect.

13. Imagine being a first-time voter or unsavvy voter in Cook and looking at the ballot paper and asking “Where the heck is Anthony Albanese?”. Conversely, voting in Grayndler and asking “Where the heck is Scott Morrison on this ballot paper?”. It’s just a random thought.

14. That happens occasionally. People come out confused that neither Morrison nor Albanese was on the green slip. But you’re right that it might be slightly more confusing in Cook and Grayndler.

    And every election there’s the urban legend of someone at a booth screaming that it’s a conspiracy that Pauline wasn’t even on the ballot, they’re silencing us etc. Probably hasn’t happened, but it’s an amusing thought.

15. Why The winer of election 2022 its being informed with great joy by official channels an not communicated officially from EAC website?
    Why already party winner is allowed to declare the victory, without the counting ( including the recounting of second and third preferences ) and the quota calculations.
    from at at least majority of all votes??

16. I wonder what Mr Morrison will do next. Be a backbencher? Join the shadow cabinet? Resign and trigger a by-election?

    I don’t know the electoral history of Prime Ministers that well but Gough Whitlam was probably the last ousted Prime Minister to sit in opposition for an entire term. Since then, Tony Abbott is the only ex-Prime Minister to sit in parliament for an entire term (as an ex-Prime Minister) after losing his job.

    If there is a by-election, the preselection could be hotly contested as this is a safe Liberal seat and there are several defeated MPs and candidates who may want to throw their hat into the ring.

17. I’m not familiar with Sydney as a whole, but I know even less about the area this electorate encompasses. The only thing I can really think of is the infamous Cronulla Riots. What contributes to the fact that this is the safest Liberal seat in a capital city in the country? I’m sure demographics and the like are part of the picture but aside from that I’ve checked the place out a little and can’t really discern why.

18. It’s quite a white area by Sydney standards with decently high income. Beyond that, it’s mostly well established suburbs in which residents have paid out their mortgages, their kids are moving out either to inner suburbs or new growth areas and thus you’re left with an increasingly older and more settled population. That mostly explains the strengthening for the Liberals over the last few decades. Then it tipped over the mark of becoming the safest seat in Sydney upon Morrison’s prime ministership.

19. “Bogans by the bay” is the motto of this seat.

20. Ironically, Cook has a safe Labor seat to the north and to the south.

    The Royal National Park separates two councils – Wollongong and Sutherland. It’s pretty much the southern end of Sydney. Sutherland Shire, where most of Cook is, is middle-class but more upper-class towards the waterfront and the beaches of Cronulla. You’ll find nuclear families, retirees and empty nesters. Lots of anchored yachts and boats too. The population is more Australian-born and/or of Anglo or European descent than most of Sydney.

    San Souci and Ramsgate has older Greek and Balkan migrants. The areas are gentrifying and becoming more affluent as it’s near the beaches and attracting families for the lifestyle.

21. I just found out, Barton is the only neighbouring safe Labor seat. Hughes and Banks are Liberal seats.

22. Agree with the Comments of Adda and Votante. The electorate of Cook used to be a marginal seat and was pivotal to the election of the Whitlam government even in the landslide defeat of 1975 it was still a close result and Labor narrowly missed out in 1983. This area shows how an area has changed from mortgage belt to established. It is much more Anglo than for example Mitchell or Berowa. Regarding the St George component of this seat. The Southern part of the St George District is more Liberal leaning especially areas such as Kyle Bay etc, now that Labor no longer campaigns in areas like Ramsgate the Liberals have improved. If Barton goes South again there is a chance that Labor can win some of the booths back.

23. Should Scott Morrison now decide to pull the pin and resign, there would seem to be a good chance that a well selected Teal could pick this up from the Libs especially as they have shown that they have not learnt a thing from the election result. They managed 14% in Hughes and the demographics would be much better for them in Cook. And in a by election, Teal resources would be almost unlimited.

24. Redistributed, i agree the Teals will do better in a by-election if they ran. Cook is better than Hughes for Teals and it is likely that Labor will not field a candidate in a by-election. Only one point of caution is that the Sutherland Shire is not as affluent as the North Shore, Northern Beaches and Wentworth. It is also more socially conservative. much of the seat away from water views is more middle class than elite.

25. The demographic of this seat is very much ‘cashed-up bogan’, similar to Hughes. Largely middle class, blue collar & Anglo-Celtic, but not very unionised due to the collapse in organised industrial facilities such as the Kurnell Refinery as well as public sector trade work. Considering the teals managed 15% in Hughes, I would say this seat would have had a similar, maybe somewhat smaller share of a teal vote if they ran. Considering that the teal gloss will probably not be as strong in an off-year as a standard election cycle, I would assume a hypothetical by-election would look like this:

    Liberal: 50%
    Labor: 25%
    Independent: 10%
    Assorted Libertarian/Other: 10%
    Green: 5%

    Considering that the Sutherland Shire is now the safest Liberal area in metropolitan Sydney (maybe along with Hills Shire), the Liberals are likely to find a good collection of competent Liberal candidates who lack the public hatred that Morrison does, combined with conservative credentials.

26. Karen Andrews has called on Morrison to resign from parliament.

27. I reckon a by-election by year’s end is likely possibly on the same day as the Victorian Election.

28. I doubt Morrison can stay on too long. If he doesn’t resign, he will likely face preselection challenges that he may not be able to win.

29. There may be a place for more conservative centre-right independents who could have appeal in electorates like Cook and Mitchell. Perhaps a teal in style, but a libertarian in substance. After all, can it really be claimed that the Liberal Party is still a party of fiscal responsibility and personal freedom?

30. I am surprised Scomo did not resign after the First sitting of the new parliament i thought he may have just wanted to make a valedictory speech. It is not common for electorally defeated PMs to serve the full term. Paul Keating, Malcolm Fraser and Kevin Rudd resigned from parliament shortly after.

31. only way libs wouldn’t retain this seat in a by election would be if they selected a real stinker of a candidate or Andrew Ettingshausen ran was an alternative candidate

32. Yes, agree with @bazza : ET would be the ultimate conservative-ish community independent candidate for this electorate. Where would the “Go Sharkies” vote go, in that scenario?

33. I don’t know if ET could run given his well-publicised financial//business problems and affair with Ali Mellor.

    Katherine Deves should move to Cronulla and run here.

34. I’m curious to know how much of a personal vote Morrison has.

35. @ Bob, from a demographic perspective i don’t believe Cook is as strong for the Libs as the Northern Beaches, North Shore or the Hills District. Prior to the election, he had a 19% margin which i believe is inflated for this reason. My view is that the true pre-election margin should be around 14-15%. It is not really small l liberal/Teal territory like the Northern Beaches/North Shore or ethnically diverse like the Hills District which is why the Liberal vote held up a bit better here. I am struggling to think of a Melbourne comparison to the Cook does anyone have any ideas?

36. Cook is perhaps the Liberals’ safest metopolitan, capital city seat. A teal/independent could run in a by-election (with Labor absent) and come second, but won’t win it because of the demographics and distance from the city centre.

37. I think the seat is socially conservative given it seems to have a low Yes vote for SSM (55%) despite being overwhelming majority Anglo and being in a capital city it look.

38. @ Votante, correct Cook is safest metropolitan but that was not historically the case. The Collapse of the Liberal vote in the Northern Beaches/North Shore to teals and big swing to Labor in Hills (due to Significant Chinese Australian community enabled this occur. Bradfield, Mackellar, North Sydney, Wentworth and Warringah are more affluent electorates. Even Kooyong, Goldstein, Ryan, Curtin and Higgins are more affluent than Cook.

39. @Nimalan is correct to point out that it is only relatively recently that Cook has been among the safest Liberal metropolitan seats in the country. The seats now held by the teals, along with Berowra, Bradfield, and Mitchell, have usually been safer. This changed in 2019.

    What is not clear to me is how much of this is due to Morrison’s personal vote (elevated by his position as Prime Minister) and how much is due to a general realignment we are seeing across the country. The Sutherland Shire ticks all the boxes for the demographics the Liberal Party is now (supposedly) targeting – outer suburban, middle to upper-middle class, Anglo, and (relatively) socially conservative.

40. On looking for a similar seat in Melbourne, it is hard to find an example. I would say Flinders, given it’s coastal location, nouveau riche demographic, conservative leanings & (somewhat) industrial history. One could also put Aston & La Trobe into this category theoretically.

41. @Boof Head is spot on, is a slighltly poorer and more conservative version of Flinders but the same time a richer version of Aston and La Trobe. The demographics is the most perfect the Liberal Party to appeal to Anglo Outer Suburb Socially Religious Conservative somewhat upper middle class. The seat of Melbourne is the most perfect for the Greens (Perhaps parts of the Melbourne’s inner north as well)
    I wonder what is the most perfect Labor equivalent of Left-wing Progressive Low Income and/or Working Class (I suspect it will be something like Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong, Wollongong and Newcastle)

42. But the most perfect Labor neighbourhood in Australia probably go to Footscray since it is progressive and multiculturalism seem to go hand in hand. May seem like utopia

43. Except Footscray is the centre of the Vietnamese community and Labor have an ugly history of anti-Vietnamese racism.

44. With Morrison looking likely to leave after the May budget, will be interesting to see who replaces him here. I think the Libs will retain this seat albeit with a swing against the party since Morrison appears to have developed somewhat of a personal vote here. But even if the 6% swing in Aston was repeated here, this seat would still be Lib held. I would expect big swings in the St Georges area reflecting the overlapping booths in the state seats of Rockdale and Kogarah. This seat was Lib held with a 6% margin when Morrison was first elected. Mark Speakman seems likely to be the NSW Lib leader so I don’t think he will contest preselection here and since he’s a lot older than Morrison, he won’t be staying very long in this seat if he does contest and win preselection. Will we see a Super Saturday if Morrison’s allies (Alex Hawke and Stuart Roberts) who are essentially politically finished resign as well?

45. It is hard to see the ALP even running in Cook. Why would they bother? They have no chance of winning and why spend the money. It would be better for them to ‘run interference’ should some sort of viable Teal run.

46. Libs are unlikely to hold all 3 of the seats Dan mentioned, even though traditionally they should. Unless the governments approvals and the oppositions favorability rating declines and goes up respectively, they will have great difficulty holding all 3.

    I think Mitchell is the most likely of the 3 to be retains, simply because of the history of the area, and David Elliot could run there and he would be far more likely to hold it, than some factional dud.

    Fadden is the next most likely, If it is Liberal vs Labor then I suspect the margin will drop to around 5-6% so just outside the marginal category or just in it, so about a 4-5% swing to Labor in the seat which is around the swing the polls currently say to the government, Hard to say because Labor might do better in Queensland because the polls have shown a shift to Labor federally in the state however QLD federal intention polls have a history of being unreliable.

    And then it’s here, Cook. More likely of the other 2 to flip, but it won’t be Labor, and a teal won’t be a fit. It will most likely be an anti-corruption conservative leaning independent. maybe like a Dai Le, but perhaps someone who fits more with the seats nature. Again Labor is unlikely to win any of the 3, but independents could make the final count. but I suspect in any Labor vs Liberal contest, Fadden would be the most marginal of the 3.

    The danger Dutton faces here is he assumes Fadden stays with the LNP safely, and he focuses all his attention on Cook, Losing a seat in your home state to a government would be so deadly of a blow, it would cost him his job as opposition leader.

    I think an independent could win here in Cook, but then lose at the next federal election. much like Phelps did, but also the guy who took over after Bob Hawke (although he might have got 1 more term in 1993) he lost in 1996.

47. I sense a by-election coming here too. If Mark Speakman becomes the state Liberal leader, it rules him out from running. Labor has little chance of flipping the seat regardless of the Liberal candidate. Aston had swung a total of 13% or 14% when combining the 2022 election and 2023 by-election but Cook would be trickier to win for Labor. This is solid Liberal heartland. I think a high-profile independent could cause an upset like Kerryn Phelps did at the 2018 Wentworth by-election.

    NSW Labor did well north of the Georges River (e.g. Blakehurst, Ramsgate, San Souci) at the state election because of Chris Minns’s and Steve Kamper’s personal popularity and the Liberal candidates sort of ran dead. From memory, Labor hardly won booths east of the Princes Highway, except around Gymea and Miranda. Cook is under quota, and so the next redistribution will expand Cook eastwards or northwards and take in more Labor-friendly areas.

    After the embarrassment of the Aston by-election, Peter Dutton will want to stop others from voluntarily resigning from parliament, unless it’s for personal, non-political reasons. Having Liberal heartland seats (Cook, Mitchell, Fadden) on the line would be politically risky, unless he’s certain there’s no Labor nor strong independent candidate.

48. It’s clear Dutton is basically just a benchwarmer until Frydenberg makes it back into parliament especially since the embarrassing Aston defeat hasn’t caused him to lose the leadership. I don’t think Dutton would be doing much to stop MPs from resigning and triggering by-elections because even if he loses any more seats, which I doubt will happen since Aston was a lot more marginal than all the aforementioned seats to begin with and has much more unfavourable demographics to Dutton, it’s not like anyone expects Dutton to win at the next election.

49. Interesting question for you @Dan M – Given the stories we have been hearing from Sydney around the conduct of Monique Ryan, plus the Anti-Morrison rush dissipating, what are the chances of Frydenberg winning Kooyong back, if he chose to run

50. @Hawkeye_au in my opinion there’s absolutely no way frydenberg wins back kooyong unless something dramatically changes in this term of government. demographics are increasingly unfavourable to the liberal party as more young people enrol within the electorate. him defeating monique ryan would essentially only be plausible by winning back a large portion of the liberal vote that went to monique ryan, which with dutton as the leader and no apparent changes to policy in areas such as climate change, china relations, integrity etc. is very difficult to do. it’s also likely that dutton is even more unpopular than morrison in victoria (evident partly from the aston by election and consistent newpolls) which poses a major caveat for mr frydenberg, as he cannot simply win the seats back from mere personality politics. however, anything can happen in two years but the way it’s going the liberals *may* be able to win seats like lyons, mcewen, and maybe blair but most likely not inner-metropolitan, young seats like kooyong, higgins, goldstein, wentworth, brisbane etc.

Comments are closed.