LIB 19.0%
Incumbent MP
Scott Morrison, since 2007.
Geography
Southern Sydney, Cook covers parts of the Sutherland Shire and the St George area. Suburbs in Sutherland include Cronulla, Sylvania, Miranda, Gymea, Caringbah and Taren Point. Suburbs in the St George area include Sans Souci, Ramsgate, Sandringham, Monterey, Beverley Park, Kogarah Bay, Kyle Bay and Blakehurst.
Cook was first created for the 1969 election. The suburbs around the current seat of Cook were first included in the seat of Illawarra from federation until the 1922 election, when it was transferred to Werriwa, when Werriwa was a large rural seat covering areas south of Sydney. The seat of Hughes was created in 1955, which was the first seat based in Sutherland. Cook was then created in 1969. This used the same name as an earlier seat based in inner Sydney, which had been a safe Labor seat before its abolition in 1955.
For the previous sixty years the seat covering Sutherland had been mostly held by the Labor Party, although Hughes was lost to Liberal candidate Don Dobie in 1966, and Cook has been held by the Liberals for most of its existence.
Dobie transferred to Cook in 1969, but was defeated by Labor’s Ray Thorburn in 1972. Thorburn was defeated by Dobie in 1975 and Dobie held the seat until his retirement in 1996.
Dobie was succeeded by Stephen Mutch, a member of the NSW upper house, in 1996, and Mutch was defeated for preselection by Bruce Baird in 1998. Baird had previously been a state MP and Minister for Transport from 1988 to 1995, as well as taking charge of Sydney’s Olympic big up to 1993.
Baird held the seat for nine years, during which time he developed a reputation as an independent-minded Liberal backbencher who was occasionally critical of the Howard government.
Baird announced his retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal preselection was originally won by Michael Towke. Towke’s preselection was overturned amid allegations of branch stacking in a controversial contest, and he was replaced by the former director of the NSW Liberal Party, Scott Morrison.
Morrison won the seat in 2007, and has been re-elected four times. Morrison served as a senior minister in the coalition government from 2013 until he became Prime Minister in 2018. He then led the government to victory at the 2019 election.
- Gaye Cameron (One Nation)
- Catherine Dyson (Greens)
- Scott Morrison (Liberal)
- Jacqueline Guinane (United Australia)
- Simon Earle (Labor)
Assessment
Cook is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Scott Morrison | Liberal | 59,895 | 63.7 | +5.4 |
| Simon O’Brien | Labor | 21,718 | 23.1 | -3.5 |
| Jon Doig | Greens | 6,406 | 6.8 | +0.0 |
| Gaye Cameron | One Nation | 3,277 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| John McSweyn | United Australia Party | 1,135 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Roger Bolling | Christian Democratic Party | 1,041 | 1.1 | -3.7 |
| Peter Kelly | Conservative National Party | 551 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 6,141 | 6.1 | +1.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Scott Morrison | Liberal | 64,894 | 69.0 | +3.6 |
| Simon O’Brien | Labor | 29,129 | 31.0 | -3.6 |
Booths have been divided into five parts named after key suburbs. All of the booths in the St George area have been grouped as “Sans Souci”. Those in the Sutherland Shire have been split between Sylvania in the north, Cronulla in the east, Gymea-Miranda in the south-west and Caringbah in the centre.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 64.9% in Sans Souci to 75% in Sylvania.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Sans Souci | 64.9 | 15,660 | 16.7 |
| Caringbah | 73.1 | 13,134 | 14.0 |
| Gymea-Miranda | 66.1 | 12,712 | 13.5 |
| Cronulla | 69.6 | 11,649 | 12.4 |
| Sylvania | 75.0 | 7,068 | 7.5 |
| Pre-poll | 69.1 | 22,385 | 23.8 |
| Other votes | 68.7 | 11,415 | 12.1 |
Election results in Cook at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Safest Liberal seat in NSW and will likely stay that way beating Mitchell like it did last time. Unless Barry Collier runs here which would produce a significant swing against Morrison. But other than that I expect Morrison to increase his already lopsided margin to over 20%
Easy liberal hold, Labor won’t even get close.
Faux Mo has a far greater chance of winning than his beloved Sharks. Scott Morrison played Rugby Union in his younger days and declared, before he was the Member for Cook, that he didn’t like or watch Rugby League.
God that man’s a sociopath. Will still win his seat easily though because apparently sociopathy is popular right now in Sydney?
From the OZ today
Press club lunch
The real Pin Drop Moment came half an hour later, care of Peter van Onselen.
the Australian columnist pulled out an alleged text message exchange between former NSW Premier (and after this, possibly former Morrison friend) and an unnamed current Liberal cabinet minister.
Quoth PVO: “In one (Gladys) describes you as: ‘A horrible, horrible person,’ going on to say she did not trust you and you‘re more concerned with politics than people. The minister is even more scathing, describing you as a ‘fraud’ and ‘a complete psycho’.”
If looks could kill, PVO would be in a light to moderate coma.
“Well, I don‘t know who you’re referring to, or the basis of what you’ve put to me,” the poker face prime minister replied carefully. “But I obviously don‘t agree with it.”
Why is it a revelation that the PM is shallow, & overly concerned with minor political manoeuvring ?
EVELYN your comment is idiotic The PM is so clearly concerned with gaining the acclaim of others that is no “sociopath” . Grow up
Evelyn
Nothing to say ????. You did seem so sure of yourself, & your psychoanalysis ? What happened ? Or did you just realise how hysterically ridiculous your comment was ?
John T
“Morrison is now being viewed as more of a liability than an asset. There is no Bill Shorten, franking credits or Scott Morrison’s relative newness as PM to get the Liberals over the line this time.”
I broadly agree . Furthermore I now feel the LNP have no more than a 20% chance of forming Minority govt
Two things
1/ You aren’t giving giving Labor nearly enough credit for all there many different efforts in repulsing voters in 2019
2/ Morrison has refused to engage in any strategic planning, thought, or direction. Instead he has been consumed with petty politics, tactical manoeuvring ie the national cabinet. IN so doing he has accomplished what no other PM has managed – He has diminished the office of Prime Minister !. Not even Rudd, or Turnbull did that ! Either he has received appalling advice, or he has failed to take good advice given.
The PM appears to be unable to accept or constructively use, any criticism, & we have to wonder if he has surrounded himself with sycophants , & submissive subordinates. His odious grandstanding, & self congratulatory seizure of any attention is almost pathological. Morrison has himself stolen oxygen from his OWN ministers, to the profound detriment of the govt.
However what appears as arrogance, dismissiveness , & egotism is actually something quite different. Its like he is emotionally undeveloped, because no one could ever tell him, or he never heard that he was good enough. So he keeps on trying to prove he is, & tell everyone *(that might listen !) That he really is. Efficiency (of action) is everything, & feelings aren’t efficient, so he is awkward, & unsure in an emotional situation ie the bushfires, Game Tame’s speech etc. His need for approval, & acclaim, is so boundless it is just sad.
AS a 3 time successful senior minister his managerial expertise was very sound, however leadership is not about managing. Its about leading. iT is most particularly not talking about yourself , or self glorification.
Hope you find my view balanced. Please feel free to add any comment that occurs to you
cheers wd
Thanks for your thoughtful reply Winediamond. I have just finished reading a book entitled ‘The Game” by Sean Kelly which in many ways supports your above analysis. I agree with you that I think Scott Morrison, with his lack of foresight and leadership, has diminished the office of Pm which makes the thought of “Albo” with his sometimes mangled syntax an increasingly acceptable alternative. Much of Morrison’s style is shifty and false like his “late in electoral life” conversion to Rugby League fandom .Scott Morrison is a transactional politician, more interested in the political benefit than personal connections. That is why he is increasingly seen as being shifty. The coalition will target Albanese , but this could easily backfire, as Albo and Labor are ready for a personal attack from Morrison and Albo is clearly now a more presentable and polished performer.
John T
I think the PMs “code’ conversion is easily understood. When he he goes to a Union game he is the PM, now. Before he was nobody, just a politician. As the highest profile Sharks fan, local MP now PM he has always been NO 1 FAN. To him that means being “the best” . So that constitutes an irresistible “lure’ for his greatest weakness & indulgence -Vanity. Not hard to see is it ? How could something so gross be “shifty”?
I also think that he sees himself on a “mission” to “take Australia forward” (to where exactly 1?) & “personal connections” are secondary & so are dispensed as efficiently as possible. Again the deception is in creating an IMAGE of success achievement, progress, etc. How is this “shifty” because its so pathetically obvious ? I agree that the propagandising is always false.
cheers wd
It’s really simple: he’s a Waverley boy who got parachuted into Cook and needed local legitimacy, so he glommed onto the local sports team in the oldest pandering politician cliche since next to kissing babies.
This area has changed-setting a path followed by Banks. I remember when Kurnell was solid Labor booth due to the refinery workforce. Labor almost won in 1983 & had hopes in 1984 but bombed. There was a doco made about the 1984 campaign, by the Rats in the Ranks producer I think?
That’s right Geoffrey! Graham Chase was his name. When my grandparents moved into the area in 1972, it was very much an outer mortgage belt seat with new developments.
See my comments on Hughes for more information on the Shire-wide trend.
Agree WOS/Geoffery, back in the 1970s this was a mortgage belt area full of homes being purchased and young families. Fast forward to now this is now a well established middle class area with a home owning population. Back in the 1970s this would have been similar to suburbs such as The Ponds, Kellyville Ridge etc are now which is why i predicted that the northern part of Greenway will follow this trend. Aston is another example of a seat like Cook as well as the Outer Eastern suburbs of Melbourne between Croydon to Lilydale.
adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2022guide/reps/cook/cook2022.shtml
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/election-2010/cook
Everyone states it is interesting Morrison’s conversion to rugby league. I think the worst is John Howard with cricket. He was not a cricket lover whatsoever – there is a story told that Kim Beazley was following the cricket in parliament house and got excited and Howard said who is playing. It just happened to be an Ashes Test.
@Nimalan
I wouldn’t call The Ponds and Kellyville Ridge “middle class”. They are very much upper class, and the new residents would be living on the North Shore were house prices where they were 20 years ago. The IRSAD reveals The Ponds in particular to have higher socioeconomic advantage than most of the North Shore and the Eastern Suburbs.
@ Nicholas,
Agree that The Ponds and Kellyville Ridge are very affluent in terms of income and high in terms of SEIFA. I think two things make this area marginal rather than solid liberal. The first is that is mortgage belt with young families with very few homes owned outright and an area with mortgage stress. Secondly, it has a high immigrant population especially from South Asia. A lot of residents including a few i know personally came as international students to Australia. Many of these people have high incomes but low deposits. In respect to the first point, population ageing will help with Liberals over the long term.
@James – Not correct. Howard has had a long-standing connection with Sydney University Cricket Club.
Morrison sending in the Army to deal with the Aged Care Crisis was a misstep. He should’ve sent in Old Navy.
What’s the over/under of him losing leadership before May? Libs have done this before to rid themselves of the stench of a leadership albatross. Third times a charm? Perhaps turning into a Japanese or Singaporean situation where there is party continuity but the leader changes
I don’t know what’s more palatable for the Libs:
a) Frydenberg/Dutton
b) Dutton/Frydenberg
c) Frydenberg/Ley or Payne
d) Dutton/Payne or Ley
Then turf Barnyard for Littleproud. To shake things up for the Nats even more, I’d promote Price to Deputy even before she enters Parliament.
Could be a Peacock/Blunt situation in 1990 which backfired but no risk, no reward
I probably see Frydenberg as a better leader for the Libs, although doing such a late change/switch of party leader could cost the Coalition as much support as if they just stick it out with Morrison and lose anyway.
At least the Abbott to Turnbull and Turnbull to Morrison changes occurred at least several months before the next election, in the previous year (2015 and 2018 respectively) unlike now which is only 3 months to go before the election. It played out poorly for the Rudd to Gillard switch which occurred just before the 2010 election.
And even worse Gillard to Rudd just before 2013. It is not going to happen – it just smacks of extreme panic. More to the point, let see if any more ministers decide to retire in 2022. Ken Wyatt would seem to be a possibility.
@ Yoh an and Redistributed fair points. Although I would say the shift from Gillard to Rudd did save Labor more seats in Sydney and Melbourne, and the loss was more of an inevitability in that instance with the leadership spill used more for sandbagging.
With Morrison and the Libs, there is still a chance they can win. I point to all the state elections where the incumbents have been re-elected as a consequence of the pandemic. Perhaps time in office is an issue, perhaps not.
I think Labor’s leader is still the government’s biggest advantage just like Shorten was 2 elections prior. A lot of people don’t rate Albanese or are apathetic toward him. Could be a similar situation when Abbott got elected in 2013 (deeply unpopular opposition leader, who had no honeymoon period).
I will note that all Perrottet has to do, if Albo is successful, is run the same line that all state Labor premiers ran in the last few years against an opposing party governing in Canberra. The 2022 Federal election will almost certainly decide the NSW 2023 State Election.
Frydenberg vs Albanese would completely change the dynamic of the election. Reading some of the national publications, there is an implicit desire for this to occur. Frydenberg is a more affable media performer than Morrison and on par with Albanese. He’s had more out of government experience than Albo, who I think would struggle finding work outside of politics. And Frydenberg is more scholarly than Albanese. If you want to look at an Albanese debate, especially on policy grounds look at this debate between he and Turnbull over NBN from Lateline
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVuatiKCoP4
The problem with Albo is he still thinks he is in University politics mode.
Would also be significant of having the first Jewish person become PM, which would add to the election showdown.
Agree Redistributed, a large number of Coalition retirements would indicate they are getting ready to lose and move into the opposition benches, just like Labor pre 2013 had lots of senior MPs retire.
The US also has this theme, before landslide election defeats a large number of MPs from the government/majority side will retire as they either don’t want to suffer the embarrassment of losing their seat in the general election or serving in a weaker position as a member of the opposition/minority party if they do win and are returned to Parliament/Congress.
Another point I have observed LJ Davidson is that the strongest state election results held during the pandemic have all come from Labor controlled states. Tasmania was status quo with only a small swing to the Liberals (they failed to gain any seats that election) whilst Queensland and WA saw substantial swings and net gain of seats for Labor. The ACT election saw a swing to the Greens and away from the Liberal Party whilst the NT election was the only one to see a vote swing and net gain of seats for the Coalition.
This perhaps alludes to the US where the party in power nationally (Coalition) generally suffers in down ballot races, even if the respective state government and leader may be popular.
@ Yoh An just a few points to consider:
– Re: the state elections being controlled by Labor governments being returned to office, part of the reason they did so was because of the adversarial tone they took with a Liberal Federal government. They leant into parochial politics and were also able to dominate messaging with daily press conferences.
I believe Perrottet will do something similar if Albanese/Labor is elected federally. Andrews definitely will if Morrison is re-elected. And on the reverse of all this I’m surprised, Morrison hasn’t been more aggressive in pushing back against the states.
– Concerning the turnover of MPs prior to an election being a signal that they are acknowledging a forthcoming loss, look at all the resignations prior to 2019 from the Libs: Pyne, Bishop, Ciobo, Laundy, Keenan, O’Dwyer, Broad, Prentice, Hartsuyker
I guarantee half of those would’ve stayed on having known the election result. So far as of 2022, I am only aware of Greg Hunt as the only senior minister not re-contesting (not including JA and Kevin Andrews as backbenchers not contesting)
– RE: the US example, that is partly true. If you look at someone like Darrell Issa the long term House Republican from California, he did not contest the 2018 mid-terms due to amongst other things the redistricting of his Californian electorate (49th). However, he returned to congress 2 years later to contest another seat (50th). This is quite common in the US due to 2 year terms. And politicians regularly make comebacks at either a state or federal level.
This time pulling off a retain of government truly will be a miracle!
2 miracles is all it takes for canonisation, right?
Will Morrison have the integrity to complete his term as a backbencher following his election loss ?
Only one former PM has done so since McMahon – Tony Abbot . Howard gets a free pass because he lost his seat.
Getting elected is a contract with the people. There ought to be a massive consequence for breach of contract.
Gough Whitlam did too…I think the best choice is to leave for a ex pm…unless they wish to stay as leader and try again
Whitlam was still Opposition leader when he resigned in the middle of the 2nd term in opposition – not quite the same as other leaders like Rudd who quit whilst on the backbench.
In fact Whitlam’s example shows that whist he probably wasn’t that good as PM, he was graceful in deciding to stay on as leader in opposition, and not step down and hand over to someone else immediately after the loss. Whether that is a sign of being ‘stubborn’ and preventing early renewal of the party is a different story.
If he gets offered something he’ll leave, if he doesn’t he’ll stay. Only reason Abbott didn’t leave was because Turnbull and the Private Sector weren’t keen to offer him anything.
Given Morrison’s tumultuous work experience prior to parliament, he may not have a lot of offers lined up.
Then again what would Albanese do if he left politics, not much accomplished beforehand.
Whitlam hung around because he thought the public would eventually sway back to him but Fraser and the Liberals had already steered the media narrative.
Gentlemen
I’ll repeat
Getting elected is a contract with the people. There ought to be a massive consequence for breach of contract.
The cost of an unecessary by-election ought to be taken from the MPs entitlements -period end of story.
Mick I don’t think the humility required for accepting a lesser role should be ignored. These ego maniacs could actually take on a mentoring role if they had real intelligence. OR ARE THEY ACKNOWLEDGING , BY DEFAULT THAT THEY REALLY DO HAVE LITTLE (more) TO CONTRIBUTE ?. Furthermore have they so little to provide to the party, & the people that gave them their position in the first place ?.
Yoh An
I don’t think you can ever go past , or get around Gough’s ego in assigning motivation. !
LJ Davidson
Jesus mate, you’re more cynical than i am !! I completely disagree about Abbott. we can make a judgement based on his actions of the last 2 years.
Morrison could have any job he wanted. but that is not the point.
Albo will serve longer than Billy Hughes, because he is incapable of obtaining a better job. Although that parliamentary defined benefit pension would have much allure
WD – I agree. With members of the Reps a by election can pose a political threat so there is that disincentive. What pisses me off is senators not serving their full term. They are elected for 6 years but some parties – the Greens in particular – seem to let this commitment pass them by. Prior to 1977, there was a sort of by election so the seat was at risk if the vacancy occurred in the first half of the six year term. Reintroduction of such a system would deter resignees. And make life interesting if 7 or 8 senators were being elected.
Abbott wanted the leadership back, or at least wanted to take it off Malcolm and the mods. That’s why he stuck around. Rudd stuck around for similar reasons.
You guys are overestimating the skillsets of retired politicians. Does anyone honestly believe Berejiklian knows a thing about telecommunication? Companies hire politicians for their contacts in government and experience in spinning lines of bullshit. That and flat out graft and nepotism.
Redistributed, I wouldn’t say all Greens Senators abandon their duties mid term. I believe Rachel Siewert in WA had already announced her intention to stand down/retire before the next election, and only resigned so that she could allow her successor (Dorinda Ward) to be a pseudo incumbent and gain better name recognition.
The reason why they changed the Senate vacancy mechanism was to prevent a repeat of the events that led to the 1975 dismissal, where an opposition party holding power in a certain state could force vacancies and change the balance of power.
Redistributed
I have to say i’m not energised about senators. Most of them could come & go as they please as far as i’m concerned !. OR just plain piss off !!. At least they don’t trigger a by-election. However i do agree that there is far too little made of the commitment they are SUPPOSED TO HAVE MADE. Like an oath FFS !. i don’t know about you, but i’d assume you’re like me , in that if you give your word that’s it
FL You are being unfair to TA surprise surprise ! Remember i’ve met him & he is by far the most decent human being to be PM since Harold Holt . Far from perfect sure, but well intentioned.
You’re completely wrong about Berejiklian she is tough, smart & a workaholic.
However you are correct about most politicians sure enough we can all recall plenty of examples.
Yoh An
You spell out my point precisely – Rachel Siewert was elected for a 6 year term. It is not in her gift to provide Dorinda Ward a mechanism to gain name recognition. It doesn’t happen in the Reps because of by elections. I understand the basis of why the changes were made in 1975. What I do object to is that it has led to an unintended consequence and the system is being effectively gamed.
Fair point redistributed, that members should be elected on their own merits. The problem is that the Senate is elected on a hybrid proportional/member system where you can vote for candidates individually but also for party groups.
This means the Senate works on a party basis, with little focus on individual candidates. This means a party can swap candidates between elections, and you elect a party to hold X seats in a state rather than individual candidates.
There are plenty of major party politicians who are elected due to the party next to their name on the ballot, not because of any perceived personal merit. Due to this, I have the opposite opinion to redistributed, I think it’s perfectly fine for parties to keep a seat for a whole unbroken term regardless of the politician filling it, in both houses of Parliament. And a politician who decides to switch parties should not be allowed to automatically keep their seat, unless they’re a senator and won from votes below the line.
Yoh An/redistributed
It’s Dorinda Cox. Jesus.
Sorry Ryan, I got confused with someone else.
@winediamond regarding 04/02 message, I think you hit the nail on the head when you mention Morrison managing rather than leading.
I think in normal election years, this taps into what makes the Liberal Party the “default” party of government and why it’s so difficult for Labor to win from opposition.
Australians tend to be quite conservative, not socially, but in the “She’ll be right mate / If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” sense, and the Liberals generally present themselves as the party of management of the status quo while Labor are the party of change, and election deciding suburban Australia tends to be cautious about change.
But I think this is one of the rare years where a perfect storm of current issues and the pandemic has made the electorate more open and hungry for change, because on a lot of issues they are looking for leadership rather than management of the status quo.
RE: the comments about state elections, I totally agree that NSW 2023 will probably be won by whichever party loses the federal election. The Liberals will hold on if Albanese is PM, Labor will win if Morrison is still PM.
In Victoria, Labor will win regardless because they literally need to lose seats with double-digits margins to lose the election, and all polling shows them at least as strong as 2018 if not stronger. Even if those polls are wrong, they couldn’t be so wrong as to translate to a >10% swing away from Labor which is basically what the Liberals need to win.
That said, whoever wins the federal election will probably determine whether it’s another ’18 style landslide (if Morrison is still PM) or if the Liberals get a swing and win maybe 7-8 seats back (if Albanese is PM).
I think that Scott Morrison epitomises the ‘Peter Principle’ – he is one level above where he should be. I really don’t think Scott Morrison would be in a very different place politically if the pandemic had not happened. It has become very clear that he has no overriding vision and that intellectually the cupboard is bare. I can’t think of any single achievement from this term of government – at best they have been reactive – and at worst they have done nothing. In retrospect, the best they could come up with at the last election was railway station car parks and not being Bill Shorten. Now they are throwing around the national security card because they have nothing left. I also think that Australians are tired – they are tired of the pandemic and they are tired of a politics that is shallow and there have been a lot of social changes in the last 15 years that some have welcomed but some are afraid of. It also seems that Morrison is more obsessed with the message than the substance of the message – and because there are no core principles it seems more shallow. The other issue is that the Federal government is seen as wanting when compared to the states – the states seem to be getting stuff done such as NSW on climate change that the Feds can’t manage.
Maybe that’s all true, but it’s hard to square Labor’s popularity with the fact that Albo’s their leader and their entire strategy has been desperately pleading not to have any grand designs whatsoever. If they’re looking for leadership, if defined as clear direction and concrete plans and policies for structural change, then Labor aren’t offering it.
I think the immediate proximate cause is that everyone’s tired of such an obviously arrogant, corrupt and incompetent government that survives on nothing but lies, spin and spivery. Morrison epitomises that, and his hokey daggy dad persona has worn thin. ‘It can’t get any worse’.
Trent, I think the reason why Labor is holding up their margin (if not potentially stronger) in Victoria is probably thanks to Victorian Opposition ideological opposition to the pandemic bill. They claim it was a threat to freedom and means more lockdowns but this is not credible given, they have supported the extremist anti-vax rallies throughout November. This potentially gives full-on damage to Vic Libs’ reputation. Ever since then they did not retreat but rather support removing all covid restrictions
Agree with all 3 comments above entirely.
It’s true that Labor also aren’t offering much of a clear or bold vision either, but what I meant was just that the public’s appetite for change at the moment makes them more open to give “the unknown” a chance, especially when the incumbent is only “known” to achieve absolutely nothing, whereas too often the Australian electorate are too reluctant to take that chance. 2019 being a prime example.
Totally agree Mathew. The Victorian Opposition are an absolute disaster and the vast majority know they are not fit to govern.
They heavily politicised the pandemic when almost every other state opposition offered bipartisan support. Their criticisms of the government have been entirely inconsistent. Their scare campaign against the pandemic bill was baseless.
And now, they are building their entire campaign around a “no more lockdowns” narrative which makes no sense because we came out of lockdown almost 5 months ago, and considering we had by far our largest outbreak and most hospitalisations since that time and Dan kept his word and didn’t use those “powers” to put us back into lockdown, it makes the Libs’ “no more lockdowns” strategy seem like a totally redundant and desperate attempt to imply that somehow Labor will lock us down again.
If that’s the best they can come up with, it’s no wonder they’re in the political wilderness and I hope they stay there.
Vic Libs kind of reminds me of Canadian Conservatives, both supposedly “centre-right” parties in progressive places but moved hard right by using GOP playbook to attack the centre-left and their polices
type for police, I mean policies
@ Mathew to a degree. Their previous leader Erin O’Toole did try to moderate the party in the lead up to the 2021 election but Trudeau outcampaigned him, and O’Toole was either not able to energise his base or the party began to bleed votes to the PPC, Maverick Party and other right wing parties (similar to One Nation, UAP).
You also have to look at the history of the right in Canada, which was split for most of the 90s and early 2000s- and not like the Liberals and Nationals here.
Also, as voting is not compulsory in Canada and they use First Past The Post, the result against the Canadian Tories was exacerbated more. In other words, there were no preferences to help cushion the margin, and they lost some seats particularly in the French speaking provinces of Quebec and New Brunswick (partially francophone) to both Bloc Quebecois and Liberal candidates.
Given now Trudeau has mismanaged the trucker protests, and has already flagged he wants Finance Minister and divisive politician Chrystia Freeland as his successor, I think this will mean the Conservatives should take government next time around with a much more pragmatic and younger leader in Pierre Poilievre.
NDP has hit a ceiling with support and BQ is also stagnate.
Canadian parties also can’t hide behind the Senate to masque political indecision as it is a relatively benign institution.
If you factor that the Canadian Tories have moved to the Right, you also have to factor that the Canadian Liberals have also moved further to the Left, which is why the NDP and Green vote is down or stagnate but the Tories have managed to make more inroads in metropolitan Toronto and Montreal. Both provinces are lead by Conservative governments yet have been traditionally centre to centre-left voting strongholds.