Cook – Australia 2022

1. I agree with Louis i think Kooyong will be hard as it has a large Chinese community in the North East Corner of the seat. I actually think Frydenburg should run in Higgins instead as there is a larger Jewish community and it is easier to defeat Labor than a member of the cross bench as many people in the affluent core of Higgins had to hold their noses to vote Labor while they are more open to vote Teal.
   Louis, i agree Dutton’s best prospects for gains include Blair, Lyons and maybe one of the Hunter seats. However, i dont think McEwen is likely to switch. It includes some quite affluent areas in Macedon Ranges and Nilumbik Shires. Labor actually did well at the state election in the area and would have held the seat if the results were repeated.

2. I actually think Frydenburg should run in Higgins instead as there is a larger Jewish community and it is easier to defeat Labor than a member of the cross bench as many people in the affluent core of Higgins had to hold their noses to vote Labor while they are more open to vote Teal.

   @Nimalan

   Nikki Saava wrote in Bamboozled despite Josh Frydenberg’s parents living in the seat of Higgins. Its unlikely he will contest Higgins. I’ve read reports Katie Allen is keen to win back Higgins as well.

   While we are on Cook it has been floated either before or not long after the election. That Frydenberg should be parachuted in Cook. After the flameouts of Kristina Keneally and Roshena Campbell. The idea now doesn’t sound very appealing. NSW Liberals rank and file are feeling a lot more defensive on captain picks and parachutes after Scott Morrison tenure as Prime Minster; which suggests a Frydenberg parachute in Cook won’t likely happen.

   https://michaelwest.com.au/people-of-cook-you-can-make-josh-frydenberg-the-comeback-kid/

3. Interstate parachuting is a lot worse than the KK or Roshena Campbell parachuting

4. Before the Aston by-election, I thought Josh Frydenberg had a chance of staging a comeback in Kooyong. I’ve downgraded his chances since the by-election. Affluent, university-educated voters are no longer voting Liberal in droves as they did a generation ago and Peter Dutton is more unpopular in Victoria than Scott Morrison was. He also leads an opposition dominated by the QLD LNP, the Nationals and CLP and aren’t too in tune with the progressivism of Victoria. If Frydenberg runs again, the teals, Labor and Greens will capitalise on the LNP’s unpopularity and tie Frydenberg to Dutton and scare them out of voting Liberal. I actually thought he’d be a better parachuted candidate for Aston than Roshena Campbell but it seems that he’s loving Goldman Sachs.

5. This is an interesting thought I had pertaining to the Dutton leadership of the Coalition. Dutton clearly wants the leadership of the Coalition – he thinks he can lead them back into majority government (if he can is another story). The only reason that he was not overthrown as leader after the historic Aston loss was because there was no-one who could replace him. If Frydenberg was in parliament, he would be the obvious replacement. But he isn’t. What I am proposing an awfully narcissistic, Dutton-focused plan, but still:

   Dutton may not visit this seat, or even campaign here, or funnel money into this seat, trying to ensure that the obvious successor to him, Frydenberg (should he be the LNP candidate) does not win, thus cementing his position as party leader. Maybe it is farfetched, but I can see Dutton as being the person to leave behind LIBERAL HEARTLAND (to forgo it to an independent) to promote his own leadership. He clearly thinks there are enough seats the Liberals are in with a shot to win that could get them over the line, and perhaps he’d rather leave Kooyong in the dust than try and pick it up and risk a leadership spill.

6. @Hawkeye, it’s true Monique Ryan has the most baggage out of any teal and the state Libs have held onto the overlapping state seats but it will still be tricky for the Libs to win back Kooyong. On the one hand, you can be sure Simon Holmes a Court will be putting in the effort and money to consolidate Kooyong for the teals. The anti-Morrison sentiment has turned into even stronger anti-Dutton sentiment and the Libs won’t really be getting anywhere in this seat unless they figure out how to win back the increasing Chinese population in the seat, something the federal Libs haven’t done as shown with Aston. I agree with @Nimalan Frydenberg would be better off in Higgins, especially if the redistribution takes away South Yarra and Prahran while putting in Caulfield.

   In terms of Dutton himself, at most the seats he can win are Lyons, Blair, Shortland, Hunter and Patterson. That’s only 5 seats compared to the 20 the Libs need to win. Even then seats like Blair would likely only last 1 or 2 terms as increasing urbanisation makes it look like a suburban growth area. That’s also assuming Dutton doesn’t go backwards in seats that they only just held onto last time, and where he won’t be too popular, like Menzies, Deakin, Sturt and Banks. You could argue the Libs would improve in WA but even the WA seat with the smallest margin, Tangney, doesn’t look promising for Dutton (demographics are affluent professionals + large Chinese population). The Libs would really be better off choosing someone else as the benchwarmer leader rather than Dutton until Frydenberg somehow makes it back into parliament.

7. Dutton may not visit this seat, or even campaign here, or funnel money into this seat, trying to ensure that the obvious successor to him, Frydenberg (should he be the LNP candidate) does not win, thus cementing his position as party leader. Maybe it is farfetched, but I can see Dutton as being the person to leave behind LIBERAL HEARTLAND (to forgo it to an independent) to promote his own leadership. He clearly thinks there are enough seats the Liberals are in with a shot to win that could get them over the line, and perhaps he’d rather leave Kooyong in the dust than try and pick it up and risk a leadership spill.

   @Bajoc

   That strategy doesn’t really make sense. Because if Peter Dutton loses the next election then he will likely lose the leadership whether Josh Frydenberg enters parliament or not. I’m reluctant to go on any further with this discussion though. Because Frydenberg winning or not winning Kooyong doesn’t really have much relevance to the seat of Cook. And probably belongs in a different thread.

8. @bajoc
   > Dutton may not visit this seat, or even campaign here, or funnel money into this seat, trying to ensure that the obvious successor to him, Frydenberg (should he be the LNP candidate) does not win

   Surely if he wanted Frydenberg to lose, he WOULD visit the seat? 🙂

9. I find it odd that Frydenberg is even touted as a candidate in Cook. The most obvious reason is that he’s from a different state. Secondly, Frydenberg would be a threat to Dutton’s leadership and Dutton wouldn’t allow him to get into parliament, especially in a safe-ish seat. Thirdly, the Vic Libs will want Frydenberg to run in Kooyong or even Higgins at the 2025 election.

   I wouldn’t be surprised if a former state/federal Liberal MP, who lost at the last state/federal election, tries to seek preselection in Cook. This is despite the parachuting disaster at the Aston by-election.

   I expect the Liberals to hold Cook at a by-election, unless there’s a strong, independent challenger on the level of Dai Le or Kerryn Phelps. Voting booths north of the Georges River (e.g. Ramsgate, San Souci) as well as around Miranda may be a challenge for the Liberals, against Labor.

10. I do say, Cook is quite socially conservative given the SSM Yes vote was quite low at 55% despite being in a heavily Anglo Capital city electorate. I think the seat fits perfectly with Liberal Party with a socially conservative upper-middle-class Anglos.

11. This is the one seat in the entire which the Libs should not lose. It has the perfect demographic for them, which is the most receptive to the right wing populist direction they are taking for a metropolitan area, with an older, socially conservative largely Anglo population.

12. Should go further back to the libs as the next redistribution will see it shed territory above the George’s river. But scomo will probably retire at the next election as es missed his chance to go with member for Fadden.

13. Boundaries here are weird. Should take in more of connells point or Blakehurst and none of the Rockdale area. An alternative and better solution I’d to base this seat solely in Sutherland Shire

14. @Mick Quinlivan

    If Cook retreats into the Shire, it will need to as far west as Woronora River, and down to all of Sutherland proper. Even then it may need to further add either Loftus or Bundeena/Maianbar

15. To be honest Mick based I’m what I’m doing with rockdale and Barton there will prolly be excess left of Rockhurst so I may move it out of Blakehurst and further into Rockdale

16. This will create a ripple effect from Fadden and the Liberals will get a swing TO THEM here, when Morrison goes. Sutherland Shire will probably swing to coalition at a by-election.

    Chris Minns is in his honeymoon period so the only thing that might stop a swing to the Liberals here is that. As some voters might simply vote Labor at a by-election here to reward the premier, (and vice versa) I’m saying this only because it’s clear the voters of Fadden wanted to also a send a message to the QLD premier.

    I only predict this if Labor contests, but Labor will be cowardice to contest this after the swing against in Fadden. They will also be too cowardice to contest the upcoming Warrendyte by-election because of this too.

    Parties that don’t try and always downplay their chances don’t deserve to be in government and I will reconsider my support for them.

17. In my opinion Major parties should run in all electorates, whether it be very safe seats or marginal seats, as it shows voters that they take their electorate seriously.

18. Any indication as to when SlowMo will be retiring? You’d think he would have done so by now after the good result in Fadden.

    He could resign next week or the week after and potentially set up a by-election on the same day as the voice referendum, as Cook would likely vote No overwhelmingly which would benefit the Liberal candidate, question is, would Labor allow the by-election on the same day, and would the voice campaign interfere with the potential by-election?

19. @daniel t he won’t or he would have done so by now I reckon he will retire at the next election if he is planning to

20. It was reported in The Australian Liberals sources suggest its unlikely that Scott Morrison will vacate his seat of Cook before the next election.

21. Either way, he would likely lose preselection next election if he doesn’t vacate early. The Alex Hawke faction has been decimated since the last federal election.

22. @dan m I think he will retire on his own terms at the election and I believe the liberal party will afford him that luxury I think Dutton and his team rate themselves a real chance in 2025 so they retiring the old guard. Maurice Payne, Alan tudge, Stuart Robert and probably some others so they can move forward without any baggage and the old regime however I think they’ve allowed Morrison to go at a time of his choosong

23. Scomo has announced his retirement. Another byelection inbound

24. Despite his unpopularity among many, best wishes to Scomo and his family. He was a dedicated member for Cook, a dedicated minister and a dedicated Prime Minister throughout some of the hardest years of our lives.

25. Thank you Scomo for your outstanding leadership during Covid, I shutter to think what it would have been like under Shorten

26. @NP i was hoping to meet him before he reitred 🙁 was hoping hed serve out the term as i was planning a trip to canberra

27. Head on over to the new profile.

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