LIB 0.5%
Incumbent MP
Gladys Liu, since 2019.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Chisholm covers a majority of the Monash council area along with south-western parts of the Whitehorse council area. Suburbs include Burwood, Burwood East, Blackburn South, Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Box Hill.
Redistribution
Chisholm shifted south, losing Blackburn North, Forest Hill and parts of Blackburn to Deakin, and losing the remainder of Surrey Hills to Kooyong. Chisholm then gained suburbs on its southern border from Hotham, including Chadstone, Notting Hill and Wheelers Hill. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 0.5%.
History
Chisholm was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. For the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the seat was relatively safe for the Liberal Party. Boundary changes saw the seat become a marginal seat in the early 1980s. It became stronger for Labor in the 2000s but was lost to the Liberal Party in 2016.
The seat was first won in Kent Hughes for the Liberal Party. Hughes was a former Deputy Premier of Victoria who had enlisted in the military at the outbreak of the Second World War, and ended up captured as part of the fall of Singapore and spent four years as a prisoner of war before returning to state politics, and moving to Canberra in 1949.
Hughes was chairman of the organising committee for the Melbourne Olympics in 1956, but after the Olympics was dropped from the ministry, and sat on the backbenches until his death in 1970.
Tony Staley won the 1970 by-election for the Liberal Party. He served as a junior minister in the Fraser government from 1976 until his retirement from politics in 1980. He went on to serve as Federal President of the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party’s Graham Harris held on to Chisholm in 1980, but with a much smaller margin then those won by Hughes or Staley. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Helen Mayer.
Mayer was re-elected in 1984, but lost the seat in 1987 to the Liberal Party’s Michael Wooldridge. Wooldridge quickly became a senior Liberal frontbencher, and served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1993 to 1994. Wooldridge was appointed Minister for Health upon the election of the Howard government in 1996. Wooldridge moved to the safer seat of Casey in 1998, and retired in 2001.
Chisholm was won in 1998 by the ALP’s Anna Burke, who held the seat for six terms. Anna Burke served as Speaker from 2012 to 2013. Burke retired in 2016, and Liberal candidate Julia Banks was the only Liberal in the country to gain a seat off Labor in winning Chisholm.
Julia Banks announced she would not run for re-election as a Liberal following the removal of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister in 2018, and a few months later resigned from the party to sit as an independent. Banks went on to run as an independent unsuccessfully for the Liberal seat of Flinders in outer Melbourne.
Chisholm was narrowly won in 2019 by Liberal candidate Gladys Liu.
- Gladys Liu (Liberal)
- Thomas Stanfield (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Anthea Antonie (Federation)
- Aaron Tyrrell (One Nation)
- Rod Whitfield (Animal Justice)
- Ryan Dare (Citizens Party)
- Ethelyn King (Liberal Democrats)
- Sarah Newman (Greens)
- Melanie Kempson (United Australia)
- Dominique Murphy (Independent)
- Wayne Tseng (Independent)
- Carina Garland (Labor)
Assessment
Chisholm is a very marginal seat. The Liberal Party missed out on the benefit of incumbency in 2019 with the loss of Julia Banks, and that may well have made things even harder for the Liberal Party. Liu should benefit from her new incumbency, but if a swing is on that may not be enough.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gladys Liu | Liberal | 41,172 | 43.4 | -3.7 | 44.0 |
| Jennifer Yang | Labor | 32,561 | 34.3 | -0.4 | 36.3 |
| Luke Arthur | Greens | 11,235 | 11.8 | +0.3 | 10.6 |
| George Zoraya | United Australia Party | 1,517 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 2.2 |
| Ian Dobby | Independent | 2,319 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 1.7 |
| Anne Wicks | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 2,063 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 1.4 |
| Rosemary Lavin | Animal Justice | 1,780 | 1.9 | -0.2 | 1.3 |
| Philip Jenkins | Democratic Labour Party | 1,702 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.2 |
| Angela Mary Dorian | Rise Up Australia | 571 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 4,463 | 4.5 | +1.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Gladys Liu | Liberal | 48,005 | 50.6 | -2.3 | 50.5 |
| Jennifer Yang | Labor | 46,915 | 49.4 | +2.3 | 49.5 |
Polling places in Chisholm have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west. The north covers those booths in the Whitehorse council area.
The Liberal Party won 53.3% of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east, while Labor won the south-west and the north. The Liberal Party overcame this deficit thanks to 53.0% of the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.7% in the south-east to 13.8% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 7.7 | 53.3 | 18,209 | 18.8 |
| South-West | 12.4 | 46.5 | 16,459 | 17.0 |
| North | 13.8 | 45.3 | 15,313 | 15.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.0 | 53.0 | 28,539 | 29.4 |
| Other votes | 10.4 | 51.7 | 18,542 | 19.1 |
Election results in Chisholm at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Katie Allen set to challenge the currently preselected candidate Theo Zographos for Liberal preselection here in this seat. The seat has been made a lot more winnable with the redistribution. Even in 2007, the Libs would have only barely lost this seat.
Is it possible that Michelle Ananda-Rajah could contest preselection for Chisholm given large parts of Higgins will now be in Chisholm? It would make the most sense as most of the new Chisholm would’ve had Ananda-Rajah as their incumbent.
Carina Garland could possible go for Menzies or Deakin given neither has a Labor incumbent. I’d say Menzies given most of the old Chisholm (e.g Box Hill) north of Glen Waverley is in Menzies and it’s notionally Labor which would make the seat competitive.
Allan isn’t running here
Is this insider news? I can’t find evidence that Katie Allen is seeking preselection in Chisholm. She tried to fight to save Higgins perhaps because she was the candidate and the old Higgins had a much lower margin than the redrawn Chisholm. She seemed very let down.
The real challenge is where Michelle Ananda-Rajah will go. Glen Iris and Malvern East will shift to Chisholm so she could make a claim there.
I just read about Allen’s challenge. It’s reported by Sky News.
I think Zographos would survive a challenge because he has more connections to the area than Allen.
@Votante saw it reported on Sky News. Since it’s basically the propaganda wing of the Liberal Party’s right faction, no surprises it has the first scoop for insider news.
This is also happening in Kooyong.
@Votante – I found the source: https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/liberals-reopen-kooyong-and-chisholm-nominations/video/77df61e27cac6f5b887562b8d3c8a4b7
Ii this k Allen should run in macnamara if she wants a seat kooyongand Chisholm already have local well liked candidates. Unfortunate for Allen but that’s the way the cookie crumbles
She is reportedly eyeing Chisholm as it’s been reported. Amelia hammer is reported to be safe from a challenge
@John Amelia Hamer needs to be the candidate for Kooyong.
@np and Zographos needs to be the candidate in Chisholm. Allen just got the short straw unfortunately she should try her chances in Macnamara if you ask me. while she wont win a ALP v LIB fight she could hope to draw enough votes away from Labor to be in the contest of a LIB v GRN contest as weve seen in the nt labor votes arent as reliable for the greens as the greens votes are for Labor
@john Zographos is 100% going to get rolled imo. The new Chisholm boundaries contain 40% of Allen’s old seat of Higgins. Zographos was always a questionable choice given the bulk of his council ward was in Hotham, and now literally none of it remains in Chisholm. His base of support comes from the large Greek population around Oakleigh, now entirely in Hotham.
The Liberals also already have a candidate for Macnamara (and crucially aren’t re-opening nominations), plus the NT preference flows are very much the exception and not the rule.
@oguh perhaps then they shoud run Zographos in Hotham against O’neil
Which suburb does Katie Allen live in?
@Ian Allen lives in Toorak, also no longer in the electorate but I feel given she was the MP for a good chunk of Chisholm for a few years she definitely has more name recognition than Zographos.
6 News now reporting Zographos has in fact been dropped in favour of Katie Allen.
@Laine Simon Love is also reporting the same information, and apparently the Liberal branch in Chisholm is furious that the administrative committee essentially overturned the decision. But it makes sense this way as the new Chisholm is really Higgins for the most part. It wouldn’t have made sense for Allen to run in Kooyong given they already have Hamer there. She won’t stand a chance in Hotham or Macnamara either so Chisholm was the only option and it appears it has worked in her favour in preselection.
If there is revolt within the local branch though the disunity could potentially hurt their standing but it’ll probably be a short-term issue.
John
I think ALP preferences are every bit as reliable for the Greens as vice versa. ALP voters were certainly more disciplined preferencers in Prahran in 2014, (as revealed by 2PP), and there is nothing in NT figures to suggest that ‘ weve seen in the nt labor votes arent as reliable for the greens as the greens votes are for Labor ‘.
There are precious few 3CP throws from Greens to the majors, and only one pure preference throw from ALP;
Braitling had a 66% preference flow to Greens.
We will know who throws better preferences (& it’s not the Greens), after a 2PP count is performed in Fannie Bay.
Does anyone else her think Zographos will be chosen for Hotham to compensate for his removal?
I don’t believe Zographos stands a chance in Hotham, no.
This decision by the Victorian Liberals rolling an ethnically diverse candidate in Chisholm for Katie Allen is yet another example of the idiocy and incompetence attributed to that branch. Considering Katie Allen’s history of crossing the floor in regards to LGBTIQ+ issues will be more put into the spotlight now that the eastern end of Higgins is now moved into Melbourne and Katie will have to make herself more palatable to ethnically diverse, conservative voters.
If I was Theo Zographos I would challenge this decision all the way to the High Court, since the vast majority of the old Chisholm still lies in the new part and would resonate more with ethnically diverse voters, it would also be an impossible task for him to compete in Hotham. This decision will also anger many branches in Chisholm, and they will make their voices heard, as this has already been heard in the media.
It would be interesting to see if this is a prelude to what happens after North Sydney is abolished and Scott Yung will be forced to make way for Gisele Kapterian in Bennelong, another case of a diverse male candidate being dumped for a (less) diverse female candidate associated with the moderate faction in the wake of the chaos in the NSW division.
@Tren @James did Toorak seriously get moved into Melbourne?
@Nether Portal Pretty sure Toorak moves into Kooyong along with Kooyong (suburb), Armadale and Prahran, which explains the drop in Monique Ryan’s margin.
@tren I believe Gisele Kapterian has already indicated that she won’t be challenging Yung for preselection after North Sydney’s abolished and it’s on the public record. Also agree that Zographos won’t stand a chance in Hotham even with the decreased margin. That seat has Labor ingrained within it.
@Tommo9 what parts of Higgins were moved into Melbourne?
@Nether Portal The other half of Prahran and the entirety of South Yarra is going into Melbourne, which obviously has caused a big stir as it means the electorate is crossing the Yarra for the first time. The decrease in the Greens margin vs Labor is deceiving at best as both areas have strong Greens vote so Bandt should have no issues.
South Yarra has been transferred from Higgins to Melbourne.
to be fair they should never have preselected candidates before the redistribution was announced as a senior liberal member announced. epecially in divisions that were likely targets for abolition. i am going to support this changing due to the fact if kooyong or chisholm were abolished they still would have reopened the nominations. and as someone pointed out Zographos does come from an area that is now solely in Hotham. several senior victorian liberal mps and anthony green have backe her in as having a better chance of unseating Carina Garland. Zographos should at least nominate for Hotham its only a 11% margin now and Clare O’Neil has heaps of baggage
@Tren Scott Yung will likely stay as candidate for Bennelong as thats a diverse division and he will probably win it. Gisele Kapterian is better off nominating for Warringah or Mackellar as both those seats dont currently have anyone
Impredicting chisholm to be won by the libs given it’s shedding it heavy labor areas to menzies and hotham and gaing good liberal areas from Higgins.
Allen needs to repudiate her past embrace of the greens and the rainbow flag to have any chance in Chisholm.
Tommo9, South Yarra and Richmond were in Melbourne Ports in the 1980s.
Whether Labor can win Menzies is questionable.
But seats like Chisholm should remain Labor… in part because Victoria is a Dutton free zone. If I remember rightly the only policy proposal are the nuclear reactors.
@Mick Quinlivan Box Hill is very strong for Labor which means that it could aid Labor in Menzies as long as they don’t go backwards in Victoria, particularly given that the Eastern Suburbs are leaning towards Labor these days, and yes if Labor could win Higgins with the inclusion of Malvern and Glen Iris within its boundaries then it should be fine in the new Chisholm.
This decision by head office will put a lot of noses out of joint.
Allen, a LINO, will be targeted by conservatives for stabbing Zographos in the back without any input from party locals. Watch her past support of trans issues be particularly weaponised and reignite factional battles in the East. She will not even live in the new Chisholm, she would be in Kooyong, and this will also be used against her being parachuted in.
Katie Allen is running here as the liberal candidate which is a smart movie here especially with some the new suburbs added in will have her personal vote from that were previously in Higgins. If the LNP want to return to office in 2025 this is a must win electorate.
@SpaceFish I don’t know if she has that much of a personal vote, I think that’d be more around the Toorak/Malvern parts of her old seat rather than the ones that are in Chisholm, but she certainly would have more of a personal vote than Zographos, whose entire council ward is now placed entirely outside of the seat.
Allan has too much baggage from Morrison, she won’t win. She voted for his governments policies 95% of the time.
There’s a chance of snatching this so Carina Garland is in a precarious position. On the flip side, Deakin and Menzies are on low margins.
@Tren, “If I was Theo Zographos I would challenge this decision all the way to the High Court”. High Court is a bridge too far.
What seat are Malvern and Toorak in now?
Kooyong
Decisions of political parties are binding in honour only they can be challenged legally.
Seats like Chisholm and Reid will be retained by Labor in 2025
@daniel t well she was a member of the govt. Labor members vote almost 100% of the time
Reid is more retainable for Labor. The electorate barely got redistributed so there’s no ‘new member’. It’s got a higher margin and no Liberal candidate yet.
The other issue is that whilst Chisholm has a sitting member, with Higgins gone there’s all the possibilities that Michelle Ananda-Rajah might seek to challenge the preselection for Chisholm rather than retire or go elsewhere, as the bulk of Higgins has been redistributed into Chisholm itself (the portions that went to Melbourne and Kooyong aren’t winnable either way). Carina Garland is aligned with the more dominant left faction of Victoria which has a tight grip on the preselections so she should be fine but if a challenge comes up then it could get very messy.
As for Katie Allen, all I can say is that if she parrots the same lines as Dutton then it’s quite possible that she will lose as moderates who were forced to toe Scomo’s line last time were all defeated spectacularly (Falinski, Sharma, Wilson, Zimmermann, Martin and even Allen herself).
Can see a possibility for Ananda-Rajah to contest Chisholm in a Higgins 2022 rematch with Katie Allen with Carina Garland following the voters in Box Hill into Menzies to square off against Keith Wolahan. Chisholm under these boundaries is a must win for the Libs if they want to even have a hope of winning minority government. This seat is a lot more winnable than Reid. If the Libs pick up Reid, especially with Dutton as leader, then they are in for a solid majority. The good news for the Libs in Victoria is that although they notionally lose Deakin and Menzies, any recovery in Victoria puts them in a good position to win back a couple of seats that were more difficult pre-redistribution like Chisholm and Aston.
@mick I hear there is some good polling coming out of Chisholm for the libs
@ dan m she wont garland will contest Chisholm if she contested Menzies and rajah contested Chisholm they both lose
John, Allan isn’t winning, I will be volunteering against the Liberals here. I will point out to people she was part of a government where the PM appointed himself to several portfolios and went to Hawaii while the country was burning. Same with Tim Wilson in Goldstein, Morrison Era MP’s need to learn to ride the horse into the sunset and move on from politics.
So what? That’s most of the current mps. And how is it their fault what Morrison did? I never said they would win either I listed 8 seats I think the libs will win. Yea like half the current mps in qld who after losing in 2012 came back in 2015. I do however think they can be competitive in a few seats setting them up to be marginal enough to win in 2028 which i predict will be a landslide. But I’m not ruling them out to be won in 2025 either. Never say never in politics. Several mps have lost seats in the past at elections lost not based on one issue but multiple. That’s why Allen lost in 2022 there was a swing across the board in the election that had to be lost. It doesn’t mean they can’t come back when the tide turns back in their favour 2025 will not be 2022 and I wouldn’t rule Allan out here in Chisholm. so what she was an mp in the Morrison government? There were 75 other mps too but they didn’t all lose. Albo was an mp in the worst govt in history but he’s still there. If she does win I’d love to see your face when she does.