Chisholm – Australia 2022

What do you basis this analysis on Geoffrey?
Genuinley curious, because I think nearly everyone has this down as a Labor gain.
Thanks

In the north of Chisholm the Liu campaign is very visible and Carina totally invisible. Ructions with China notwithstanding, the ability of a Chinese candidate to tap into Chinese networks must be infinitely greater and to those of us who are not ethnic Chinese or part of those networks, totally invisible. Gladys was never going to down without a fight.

I believe it’s actually wise for Carina Garland to be rather invisible in parts of the electorate since many voters at this stage may not be aware that the ALP candidate isn’t of Chinese heritage unlike last time and may just assume that Labor is going to field another candidate of Chinese heritage. There is without a doubt that ScoMo and his government are very unpopular in the seat so the fact that Gladys Liu is a sitting MP of Chinese heritage going against a White Australian Labor candidate is her best bet for holding the seat. If Labor can manage to keep the debate squarely on the parties rather than the candidates themselves, it would be help them significantly in winning here.

Whats interesting is there was a poll (I know the polls were wrong in 2019) that has the LNP holding here, its the best news I’ve seen for the LNP in this seat for awhile.

@Bob
That poll had a ridiculously strong One Nation vote in it so I wouldn’t place too much faith in it. Even then, it only had the Liberal primary vote increasing by 1% which isn’t a lot and could simply reflect the polling margin of error.

On that note, has Gladys Liu actually followed through with her announced WeChat boycott? It would be basically political suicide if she does it given voters who have a strong anti-China stance probably wouldn’t vote for her anyways and she would be throwing away a critical advantage she has which is her ability to effectively campaign on Chinese social media.

Dunno if she’s still on WeChat or not, but something non-Chinese may not know is that Mainlanders (who now represent the majority of Chinese in Australia) don’t necessarily see her as “one of us”.

She’s Chinese, but she’s also a HKer and an evangelical Christian, and her Mandarin isn’t very good.

Expat and John Smith, I believe that Gladys Liu’s anti-China stance and Christian background would strengthen her support amongst the non-Chinese population, who are generally more conservative in this seat.

Interesting the Libs would have held this very marginally in 2004 under these boundaries, and even Isaacs and Holt as well! All which went ALP narrowly under the old boundaries in 2004. The last election when the Victorian Liberals had an outstanding performance which can probably be accounted to Peter Costello.

Daniel – if that was the reason, why didn’t the Coalition do as well in 1996, 1998 or 2001? Costello was the Treasurer all throughout.

No, the strong performance by the Libs in 2004 was due to their campaign on interest rates. The Scoresby Tollway issue also had an impact in parts of Melbourne as well.

WOS is correct, 2004 was one of the best result for the Coalition in recent years, the best after the 1990 result. In fact, it was only one of two occasions since the 1980s when the Libs managed to win the TPP in Victoria something they could not do in 1996 or 2013. The Scoresby toll way led to huge swing against ALP in Eastern Melbourne and interest rates in Outer Melbourne including labor held seats such as Calwell and Lalor. Aston back then was a mortgage belt and the toll way went right through the heart of the seat explain the huge swing there. Holt also had a big swing for both reasons but we need to remember that the current boundaries would not have made a full quota back then as a lot of the land was still farmland around Clyde, Cranbourne etc.

The areas in the seat seem to be trending Liberal compared to the state average as seen by the widening of the gap. Could be similar to how Reid and Banks are trending to the Liberals in NSW as they are demographically quite similar. That being said, if the state swings to Labor then this seat could fall. If the swing is smaller than expected, the Liberals could very narrowly hold on against expectations just like in 2019.

Interesting article on The Age this afternoon about the impact of the Coalition’s rhetoric on China on the Chinese vote in Chisholm.

It quotes some polling statistics, that a 2021 survey showed that 42% of Chinese Australians identified with the Liberal Party compared to only 21% with Labor; but the same poll in 2022 had only 28% identifying with the Liberals compared to 25% with Labor.

I have no other information about the poll, but the article also has vox pops “on the ground” in Box Hill in which the common theme was that they saw the government as anti-China, that the government’s rhetoric was not helping lure back Chinese students that their businesses rely on, and that they are voting Labor.

Obviously it’s anecdotal, and I have no other information about that polling, but there’s nothing that points to a pro-LNP swing among Chinese Australians in the seat, and I struggle to see Gladys Liu getting a swing among non-Chinese voters either, given her controversies.

I was at an event recently in Sydney where alot if Victorians were at, specifically suburban Melbourne second or third generation Australians. Their views of the Andrews Government and lockdowns were very heated and unprompted. It just kept coming up in conversation. I am very interested if it’s reflected in Victorian federal seats or they keep the reaction for the state election.

@ John Smith, excellent point raised. The 2016 on these boundaries was better than in 2004 despite the fact that 2016 was a much closer result state-wide. Using Reid (previously Lowe) and Banks is a good comparison as they were were Labor held during the Howard years. It can be a case that the Libs underperformed among Asian Australians. I remember Antony Green saying during the coverage of the 2017 Bennelong by-election that changes to family reunification visas and how the Pauline Hanson issue was handled led to reduced support for the Libs during those years. That maybe one reason for why Chisholm has improved from the Howard Years. It is important to remember the old Bruce (Pre 1996) which covers a similar area was quite safe for Libs. However, in the case of Reid and Banks this may also be due to the waterfront suburbs becoming wealthier. It also appears that the Libs have improved their performance in Bennelong recently compare the 2016 result to 1996 one noting in 1996 it include Elite suburbs around Hunters Hill and the Bennelong of today is similar demographically to Chisholm north of the Monash Freeway.

Based on what I’ve seen on the ground, Gladys Liu has a significant degree of personal popularity among Chinese Australian voters, both first and second generation, but the Morrison government is hated and viewed as incompetent, corrupt and racist. The question is whether voters decide to vote for Gladys Liu as their local member or as a representative of the Morrison government. Labor will win if the contest is party vs party but Gladys Liu will win if she can turn it to candidate vs candidate. The Labor candidate chosen is not the best to say the least, might go well down in the area around Monash Uni below the M1 and maybe the Deakin Uni precinct but not in the rest of the seat.

No Liberal has been re-elected in this seat since 1996. Why would Liu be any different? Same with Bridget Archer in Bass. History is against these sitting MP’s and it doesn’t matter if Albanese and Labor aren’t cutting through. The government’s record and approval is appalling and voters made up their minds already.

Should see a healthy 6-7% swing to Labor if the polls in Victoria are right. And those illegal misleading campaign posters last election will come back to haunt Gladys.

I don’t buy that Chinese Australians vote conservative. If I see it I believe it. They tend to be more traditional on social issues however they will not like the government’s approach to China nor will they like the immigration policies. The recent Solomon islands fiasco only hurts the Liberals further here.

I actually think Julia Banks may have HELPED the Liberals here last time for quitting the party as a few swing voters may not have been happy that they voted Liberal and got an independent who they may have seen as backing Labor. So they may have punished the left for this turncoating. Doubt it had too much affect but because this is super marginal it could have made a difference.

I admit my analysis is mediocre at best but I’m pretty confident this time that the Liberal party will not retain Chisholm based on what most people have said. This should be written off and they should focus on holding La Trobe and Deakin

Daniel, while I’m not so sure I agree about the Julia Banks part, I pretty much agree with the rest.

I don’t see the Liberals retaining here.

What John says above about party v party or candidate v candidate decisions is correct I think; however, I don’t see candidate v candidate decisions actually swinging many votes to the Liberals (more likely just Liu holding her 2019 voters), whereas people making a party v party decision is sure to swing votes to Labor.

Likewise, on the China issues in general, while there would be lots of varying views within the Chinese-Australian community, I don’t see the last 3 years swinging many voters TO the Coalition who didn’t already vote for them in 2019; but the issues could certainly swing 2019 Liberal voters away from them.

How much? Who knows but there only needs to be less than a 1% swing… I find it hard to believe the swing will be less than 1%. My guess is more like 2-3% at least.

Then there’s the 74% of the electorate who are not Chinese-Australian where the general Victorian anti-Morrison sentiment is sure to swing at least 1% of voters, even if the Chinese vote holds up for Liu.

My prediction here is that Labor win by about 53-47.

One thing that is forgotten here is that at the last election it was Chinese candidate vs Chinese candidate so for the Chinese community they could have a Chinese MP whatever. Just speculating here but there may be some ethnic Chinese voters in Chisholm who see the importance of a “Chinese” voice in Canberra as more important than the other issues.

Out with Chinese friends in Box Hill last night. They don’t normally talk politics, but they did bring up Morrison dropping in last weekend to try and shore up Chinese votes. Their view, summarised:

– Morrison is pretty widely disliked, or at least distrusted, by Chinese voters. They viewed his appearance last weekend as a stunt.
– as a conservative Christian from HK, Gladys Liu also isn’t entirely trusted by the mainlanders (who are the majority of Chinese in Australia now, in the old days you’d hear more Cantonese on the street, but these days it’s all Mandarin).
– they thought it was odd that Labor didn’t also stand a Chinese candidate against Liu (they remembered Jennifer Yang last time), but they also joked that “it’s like western TV, there can only be one token Asian in the show”…

This is literally the most I’ve ever heard them talk about politics, mainlanders usually don’t.

Speaking this morning with a work colleague who has been moved into Chisholm by the redistribution. He is more inclined to vote Labor or Green but he is very impressed with the sheer effort that Gladys Liu and the Libs are putting in. He contrasts this with Labor who seem to be putting in no effort and his view is that Carina Garland comes over as a weak candidate. With a view like that from an unsympathetic voter, the Libs may surprise in Chisholm.

I agree with redistributed, The liberals have a chance of holding here. I kinda see Chisholm like Deakin was in the 80’s & 90’s where LNP always seemed to manage to hold on with really close margin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-22/irt-hidden-campaign-labor-facebook-pages/101008912

The ALP really isn’t doing itself any favours with stuff like this. It could very well alienate Chinese Australian voters who would consider voting ALP especially those switching their votes to the ALP over the Morrison government’s China stance.

@John Smith that’s pretty common in Labor circles. Some of the most racist people I ever met were in the Labor Left faction.
The Libs get a lot of bad coverage but if the press for a hold of half of the defamatory messages on Labor WhatsApp groups including incitement of violence, they’d have a field day.
This article just tells me Labor are very worried about Chisholm.
More importantly the Chinese vote is not monolithic. There are many who are from the mainland, who are anti Beijing/Xi and vice versa with those from Hong Kong.
You also have lots of ethnically Chinese Australians, who are of Singaporean, Malaysian, Taiwanese and Vietnamese background who wholeheartedly support the government’s stance against China.
Reading a lot that has been reported about Liu, much of it is unsubstantiated innuendo but she probably should’ve been advised better to avoid being placed in situations of contact with less than reputable figures seeking to influence.
That being said she has done the direct opposite of what a “pro-Chinese” candidate would’ve done, namely being pro-Hong Kong and supportive of the anti-government protests and speaking out against ScoMo’s WeChat ban.

Interesting to note that Max Mok who announced months ago that he was running in Chisholm on the Drew Pavlou team has not nominated. Whats gone on there?

@Redistributed

Drew Pavlou Twitter:
“BREAKING: We are taking immediate legal action against @AusElectoralCom to appeal a MIDNIGHT decision to bar our candidate @maxmokchito from running in Chisholm because they were confused by his legal Asian name “Chi To Mok.” I thought we moved on from White Australia???? https://t.co/cqLYl9JQah“

Redistributed

He put the wrong name on his nomination form, the name he put forward was not that of someone enrolled. The AEC can only reject a nomination form on the mandatory questions on the nomination form, of which (unsurprisingly) correct first names and surnames are required. 13 down to 12 is not much of a blessing for the people of this electorate.

@LG Davidson, i agree that the Chinese community is not a monolithic. For example ethnic Chinese who came from countries in Indo China and East Timor who came under the humanitarian program were traditionally less well off than those who came from Hong Kong and Malaysia. However, in Recent years the share of Mainland Chinese has grown significantly while those from the other mentioned regions now represent a smaller share of Chinese Australians. As Expat correctly points the number of Mandarin speakers has increased while the number of Cantonese speakers has remained stagnant over the last few censuses. For example i grew up in Menzies in the 1990s that era was shaped by the Mass Migration out of Hong Kong leading up to handover. Today there are more than 3 times the number of people born in Mainland China than in Hong Kong and the children of Hong Kongers who grew up in Australia that time may vote on issues like the rest of Australia and not necessarily the same way as their parents. Also Taiwanese community is larger in Brisbane than either Melbourne or Sydney.

Polling from Poll Bludger has come out suggesting that the LNP will get a swing to them here which is extraordinary which will explain labor not putting as much effort here.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-target-gladys-liu-on-national-security-credentials-20220423-p5aflk.html

This is a very risky move for the ALP and could very well backfire. They seem to be increasingly desperate.

Is the Chisholm candidate list going to be updated noting there are twelve candidates rather than just the six listed?

Looks to me that Labor have shot themselves in the foot here

Bob, what “polling” are you referring to? Bowe doesn’t do polling, and hasn’t even talked about Chisholm

Is the Chisholm candidate list going to be updated given that there are 12 candidates not 6?

Yes it will be updated once I’ve been able to search for web addresses for the 300-odd new candidates. Please be patient. I explained this in the last blog post.

@Bob Agreed. At this stage it almost seems like Labor is trying to lose. They’re essentially throwing away the number 1 reason why this seat would fall.

@Redistributed @Michael @Ryan Spencer, I did notice about Max Mok not being on the list of 12 declared candidates, so thanks for the filling in information. I actually think Max with the DPDA could have taken some votes off Gladys (LIB). With her drawing top and aforementioned comments about ALP, I originally had this as an ALP gain, but I think she’ll actually hold on, just. Prediction: LIB Retain.
As for the 12 candidates, with such a tight margin, you wouldn’t expect any less interest in a seat like this from minor parties/indies… but Chisholm is officially the seat with the most candidates. (There are 10 seats next with 11 candidates, to which I find it interesting in telling which seats others think are winnable/competitive.)

Suburban Rail Loop could play a crucial role in Chisholm. Given it is now likely the LNP would not fund the project, this would likely be a political suicide of the LNP in Chisholm if Labor was to commit to the project just like last time.

@Marh That’s more of a state issue than a federal issue so I don’t think it would be too important in the minds of voters. Certainly will make it tough for the Liberals to win the overlapping state seats of Box Hill, Ashwood and Glen Waverley though. However, given the tiny margin, nothing can be taken for granted and even the most minor issue can be decisive.

In regards to Labor’s ads, the Liberals have already unsurprisingly linked it to racism. In the current environment where many Chinese Australians are feeling the brunt of racism and suspicion, this will be a big boost for Gladys Liu. Although there are differing views about the Chinese government within the Chinese Australian community, that certainly won’t be the same regarding racism and discrimination against the community as it would directly affect every single member. I do feel the best way for Labor to win this seat is to campaign on the Morrison’s government as a whole rather than trying to attack Gladys Liu directly like what they’re doing now since that opens up Carina Garland and Labor to accusations of racism and Sinophobia.

What are people’s thoughts on the chances of this scenario occurring come election day – majority government ALP win, but fail to gain Chisholm.

I’m not sure if the Gladys Liu ad will backfire in Chisholm or not, but it won’t hurt the broader campaign to highlight rampant corruption.

WL

I’d say that possibility looks increasingly possible, but still improbable. Despite negative developments for the Labor campaign in Chisholm its still on such a small margin I can’t help but think it will flip if there’s a substantial swing to Labor across suburban Melbourne. However my thinking is the margin will be tight, likely a narrow Labor win along the lines of 51-49 ALP.

Is anyone actually denying the claims in the ad?

The ad is pretty much all true as far as anyone can tell.

Liu’s campaign team (and other Chinese Lib members in seats such as Deakin) certainly do spread misinformation on WeChat. Mr Ma’s “High class dirty bombs” etc.

And she did have to return a sizeable donation that turned out to be from suspicious sources. And was targeted as an asset by the Chinese government, whether she realised at the time or not.

The question is how it plays out in the minds of Chinese voters. The Libs are claiming it’s racist to distract people from actually looking at it.

A bit of a contrast to Morrison screaming “Shanghai Sam” when it was a Labor MP in question.

Personally I think it’s a stretch to claim the ad is racist when all it does is rattle off 3-4 facts. She DID spread misinformation, return a donation and use AEC colours.

The message of the ad isn’t to not vote for someone with links to China, it’s not to vote for someone who uses dirty tricks instead of working hard. That has relevance for the broader Liberal Party in the context of rorts and their refusal to implement a federal ICAC.

Is it possible that the Libs trying to link those claims to racism might backfire? By doing so, they’re actually the ones implying that doing those things in the ad is a racial/Chinese thing, not a Liberal Party thing.

Also, for all the focus on how the quarter of Chisholm voters who are of Chinese heritage may react to the ad, what might the impact be on the three-quarters who are not? Linking Gladys to corruption and dirty tricks – something relevant to the Liberal Party as a whole – might cut through.

I don’t see the seat going against the trend of a wider Labor swing. It seems to me that many are assuming that Morrison campaigning here is a sign that this is close or winnable when all it really shows is that it’s part of his “path” to a potential win – the same reason he is campaigning in Labor held marginals, as he needs them to offset losses elsewhere. That potential path can’t be disregarded but remains unlikely, and the same goes for retaining Chisholm.

The ad is very targetted against Gladys Liu personally and the first impression is that she is targetted because she is Chinese. It does seem like a desperate measure on the part of the ALP and despite what the ad says, the impression of racial targetting is bad. It could be the ALPs Michael Daley moment.

Feels like another own goal from Victorian Labor. Locally, all Labor had to do was bite their tongue and focus only on Scott Morrison and the rail link. Perhaps they could have gotten away with this ad if it was playing only in QLD marginals. I can’t see the plus of playing it within the electorate or in Victoria. Note most of Labor’s problems these days (aside from Albo ‘s early gaffe) seem to come out of Victoria.

I agree with your observations Expat and Some Guy. The content of the advertisement relating to the member for Chisholm has been widely reported. See Herald Sun (15/08/2019 “Victorian Liberal Party forced to return $300k”) and Sky News (11/09/2019)

For voters who would base their vote on Gladys Liu’s numerous controversies, they would already be aware before the election given how widely reported they were and would not vote for Gladys Liu anyways so I am a bit confused to why Labor decided to go ahead. Even though the actual content of the ads aren’t inherently racist themselves, any perception or impression of racism will be very damaging and certainly the first impression many people, especially for those who do not speak English as a first language, will get upon seeing this ad is that there’s an element of racial profiling. It’s not going to be easy to counter that as Labor doesn’t even have an ethnic Chinese candidate here, something that I’ve noticed many Chinese Australians living in the electorate are criticising, and the fact that some Labor supporters are already spreading rumours and conspiracies about Gladys Liu being a Chinese government spy.