Chisholm – Australia 2022

Trent
You make a strong case. Good cogent, & well reasoned views. Most of which i agree with.
Rather than argue i’ll put a few questions to you, because i find your views to be entirely genuine.

Does the anti-Morrison sentiment outweigh the Albo disdain?. Is the fact of albo not being Victorian a factor ?
Will the ALP fielding a non Asian candidate be a factor in Chisholm ?
Have you underestimated the effect of the IBAC investigation ? The NSW experience would suggest this. Last week after 10+ years 2 nsw labor ministers were imprisoned. In Victoria there is a clearly an “unholy trinity” of unions, govt, & big business. In QLD under Bjelke-Petersen this was accepted, & it could be argued that public interest was not compromised (much!). Do you see this as a fair comparison ?
The lockdowns were a humiliation for Victoria. I think the parallels with NSW will not be enduring , but the injury will be. Having said that Trent, it’s just as likely that you will end up being entirely correct.
cheers wd

Any Voices Of movement in this seat? Hypothetically, if Julia Banks ran again as an independent, how do you think she would do, and would she be likely to get the backing of a Voices Of movement?

Kara
From a local – No. The characteristics of “Voices of ..” seats seems to be that they are largely or very Anglo and previously safe Liberal seats. Chisholm fits neither of those.
Julia Banks took herself off to the Mornington Peninsula last time so unlikely to be back. It was never very clear how connected she was with Chisholm.
WD
On the ALP running a non Asian candidate – hard to say. Last time it was Chinese candidate vs Chinese candidate – Gladys Liu was socially very conservative whilst Jennifer Yang was a serial candidate who had drifted across the Eastern Suburbs and run for Melbourne Lord Mayor. Neither was an attractive voting proposition. There is a big South Asian community in Chisholm as well – it would be interesting to see what happens if a South Asian candidate ran.

Max Mok is running as an independent here. He’s associated with Drew Pavlou.

Can’t wait for another China-centric campaign in Chisholm.

Private polling by the liberals has basically conceded this seat to Labor. Promises made by the Morrison Government for this seat have not been delivered. Labor is confident of winning this seat.

It was reported in the Australian Financial Review both parties expect Labor to win Chisholm.

At this stage this is the only seat that the ALP could win due to the slender margin. I still think the ALP will only just get over line here.

No doubt Chisholm will be extremely close but it is not the lay down win for the ALP that some think. There are three factors that will help Gladys Liu:
– she will not be up against another Chinese background candidate.
– there is the chance to go harder in the areas that were Hotham and where the effort / money/ resources were not put in last time.
– there was a very large prepoll station in Blackburn North that favoured the Libs. It is now counted as Menzies but many voters would still be in Chisholm (or Deakin).

Agree, especially feel that there is potential for the Libs to increase their vote in Wheelers Hill which is strongly liberal and it will be the first time since 1996 there will be a sitting Liberal MP for Wheelers Hill.

Keep in mind though the Liberals tough talk on China has rubbed some Chinese communities the wrong way. It was reported in the ABC. The main culprit to blame was Peter Dutton. The Liberals are concerned about a potential backlash from these groups based in seats of Chisholm, Banks, Bennelong, and Reid. That’s why the Liberals may tread more carefully with their language about China heading up to the next election.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-08/scott-morrison-attempt-gladys-berejiklian-federal-politics-fail/100684098

Reminds me of the recent Canadian election, where seats with large Chinese populations swung very hard against the Conservatives (basically the LNP equivalent) due to their harsher stance towards China with several safe seats switching sides. If that is replicated in Australia, Chisholm will be the least of the Liberals’ concerns.

Reminds me of the recent Canadian election, where seats with large Chinese populations swung very hard against the Conservatives (basically the LNP equivalent) due to their harsher stance towards China with several safe seats switching sides. If that is replicated in Australia, Chisholm will be the least of the Liberals’ concerns.

In the Canadian election, the United Front and PRC Consulate was very active targeting Conservative Party MPs in the Vancouver area who were of Hongkonger background. We would expect Chinese voters in thrall to PRC propaganda to shift to Labor, but Hongkonger and Taiwawnese voters to move towards the LNP.

If you take it as read that the PRC sees real stakes in this particular election, and I’m not convinced they necessarily do (let alone that their interests necessarily align with Labor and not the Coalition) then I don’t see how the anti-PRC Chinese lobby could possibly hope to match their influence operations. So in that case it would be a pretty one-sided partisan shift, if it happened.

It strikes me that PRC-aligned Australian-Chinese will want to take some credit for taking down Scrote, Spud and Payne-in-the-arse. Labor really doesn’t have to do, say or promise much to attract these voters as well as those who are pro-HK and Taiwan. Just put Penny out front-and-square to exhibit her engaging diplomatic skills, which are totally absent on the other side. This means the use of ambiguous language and talking riddles out of both sides of your mouth simultaneously. That’s the very nature of diplomacy, especially in Asia where ‘face’ is so important. It’s one way where a weaker power (us) can co-exist with a much stronger power (China).

It strikes me that many pro-PRC Australian-Chinese will really enjoy voting to bring down Scrote, Spud and Payne-in-the-arse – something they could never do in their former homeland. I suspect their social media platforms will lead the charge. Labor really doesn’t have to do, say or promise much for this to occur. Just put Penny out front-and-square so she can exhibit her engaging diplomatic skills that are totally lacking on the other side. This doesn’t mean sacrificing pro-HK and Taiwanese supporters. Penny is very good at speaking simultaneously in riddles from both sides of her mouth to any side that will listen. It’s called diplomacy, and it has special application in Asia where ‘face’ or ‘dignity’ is so important. It means that smaller powers (us) can co-exist with larger powers (China). You just have to call a spade a fucking shovel when you have to.

So good I posted twice. Sorry, IPad malfunction.

I have seen my first bus stop ad for Carina Garland – ALP for Chisholm. Curious thing is that it was several hundred metres outside the electorate on the Deakin side of the Deakin / Menzies border.

This seat is essentially gone for the Liberals. Gladys Liu’s core support base in the seat is among wealthier Chinese Australians and they are very likely to be turned off by the Coalition’s hawkish stance and rhetoric.
It tends to be wealthier and more affluent Chinese Australians and recent migrants who are more pro-PRC because they are the ones who’ve benefited from the Chinese economic boom. Many of them also have business ties and links in China. They also are the section of the Chinese Australian community who are more likely to vote Liberal because many of them are pro-business, have investment properties and prefer economically liberal policies like lower taxes, negative gearing, less regulation etc. A lot of them are also quite socially conservative and traditional (in the Confucian sense) and the Liberal Party’s relatively conservative stances on same-sex marriage, crime, education, law and order etc. appeal to them. In essence, the pro-PRC Chinese Australians are the ones in the broader Chinese Australian community who were more likely to vote for the Liberals pre-pandemic. Hostility amongst this group against Labor’s high taxing agenda in 2019 is likely the main reason why this seat remained Liberal-held against expectations. The Coalition’s increasingly hostile rhetoric and language in regards to Beijing are causing them to switch their votes to Labor this time around.
Although the Coalition’s stance may improve its vote among Hong Kong-born Australians, most of them are located in neighbouring Menzies rather than in Chisholm which has a larger proportion originating from mainland China. That being said, there are some Hong Kong-born Australians who are pro-PRC for very similar reasons mentioned above, particularly if they have family or business ties in mainland China.
Ironically, the strong rhetoric of the Coalition is actually causing many otherwise indifferent Chinese Australians to support Beijing as the CCP’s line is that ethnic Chinese are treated as second-class citizens in overseas countries and with all the McCarthyism and racism going on, it’s making them feel that Beijing was right all along. The Coalition’s rhetoric and language is doing Beijing a lot of favours whether they realise it or not. I do know many who live in this electorate who used to be indifferent or even anti-PRC pre-pandemic but now are very ardent supporters of Beijing.
As for the rest of the voters in the seat, the bungling of the Omicron outbreak, Morrison’s unpopularity in Victoria, the very slim margin and the sheer amount of controversies and negative press against Gladys Liu is more than enough to flip Chisholm.

2016 census figures for the City of Monash and Box Hill would suggest that approximately 25-30% of the population of Chisholm is of Chinese ethnic background of one form or another. Substantial, yes but the figure of actual voters will be much less as the population figures pick up non citizens who can’t vote. The seat contains both Deakin and Monash Unis so there is a very high overseas student population. This equally applies to people of South Asian descent as well. There is a substantial South Asian community in the Glen Waverley area and they never seem to get factored into any of the political calculations at all, all of the emphasis in Chisholm being on the Chinese community. If Kooyong gets close, the Chinese community might become the decisive factor there.

Then this could also be a factor in Deakin (sizable and growing Chinese community in the Whitehouse LGA part). In Sydney, if the line was drawn Eastern parts of Cumberland LGA, Parramatta LGA east of the A6, All or most of Ryde Council that would be like Chisholm, they large Chinese population with a great mix of working-class, middle class and upper-middle-class areas. Another could possible equivalent could be the areas between Hurstville to Campsie.

Marh, agree with your comments and comparison. With respect to Deakin as your pointed out the Whitehorse portion is diverse especially Forest Hill, Blackburn. However, Maroondah LGA is very Anglo especially as you move further East. As i mentioned in the Menzies thread, Whitehorse LGA is similar to Parramatta LGA. I feel Ryde Council is like Monash LGA (Glen Waverley, Mount Waverley), while Manningham is a combination of Hornsby and Hills Shire.

You are correct to say Maroondah is probably amongst the most anglo areas in Melbourne nevertheless there is a sizable Chinese population in Ringwood (around 10%) and Croydon has an unusually high percentage of Burmese possible amongst the highest concentration of Burmese in Australia. Although I think Whitehorse LGA is more like Ryde given it lacks working-class areas and Monash is like Parramatta LGA but add some areas like parts of Cumberland LGA since south of Monash Freeway is like the south of the Parramatta River with working-class area and large student population (Clayton is similar to Auburn/Berala/Lidcombe) whereas north the Freeway is wealthier just like north of the Parramatta River. You spot on for Manningham although Carlingford in Parramatta council could be added as well into Manningham

Add one more, a Sydney equivalent for Deakin is probably a mix of Banks south of Hurstville (or A3) and the Sutherland part of Hughes

@Nimalan
Agreed though I would add that although I am not a Sydney expert though I feel Monash LGA contains some less affluent areas south of the Monash Freeway (Oakleigh, Clayton, Mulgrave) compared to Ryde LGA, which is reflected with the massive ALP margins in that area of Monash LGA compared to the sea of blue in the whole of Ryde LGA except for the Macquarie Uni booth. Of course that could simply be reflective of how the Liberals are a lot stronger in Sydney than they are in Melbourne.

Agree Marh and John Smith, Excellent points raised including the Burmese community in Croydon which can also be found in neighbouring Mooraolbark (Yarra Ranges) in otherwise monocultural area. Agree that the areas in Monash Council south of Monash Freeway (especially Clayton) is demographically very different and is part of the South East Manufacturing belt centred along the Dandenong Rail Corridor. While north of the Monash freeway is clearly part of the Eastern Suburbs. Also agree that the Sutherland part of Hughes can be compared to parts of Maroondah and even suburban Yarra Ranges LGA (up to Lilydale)

@Nimalan

Your comment exemplifies why I wouldn’t want to see a merger of Chisholm and Hotham to create an electoral division based on Monash Council. (This is something I have seen discussed as a possibility at the next redistribution if Victoria loses a seat.) Monash Council is possibly the most ill-conceived LGA in all of metropolitan Melbourne.

Nicholas, I wonder if Monash Council in Melbourne was like the old Parramatta council pre 2016, which featured some strong Labor voting areas around Granville/Guildford south of Parramatta and the M4, along with some more Liberal/conservative leaning areas around Carlingford and Dundas.

At least in Sydney, the council mergers reorganised Parramatta Council to be centred on the more conservative side, north of the M4 still focussed around Carlingford and Dundas, whilst including more of Epping and North Rocks. Although it still made a mess by including a tiny slither of Beecroft, along with the Olympic park precinct that is probably a better fit with Rhodes and Canada Bay council.

@ Nicholas
I agree with you point about Monash council. I would support a demerger of Monash council to reverse the Kennett era amalgamations and have a return to Waverly Council and an Oakleigh based one than include the Part of Kingston Council north of the Dingley Bypass (Clarinda/Clayton South) which are part of SE Manufacturing belt and working class while the rest of Kingston Council is middle class (or rapidly becoming middle class such Carrum/Chelsea Heights) and not ethically diverse. The Dingley Bypass is becoming a second social divide IMV in SE Melbourne after the Monash Freeway
However, if Victoria does lose a seat at he next redistribution which an alternative seat instead of Hotham that you think can be abolished

It is hard to say without knowing exactly what the enrolment numbers will be by then, but I hope that it will be possible for Chisholm to sit between Canterbury Road and the M1. My comment on objections showed that this was possible at the last redistribution.

I’m not sure what division would end up abolished in this case, but I imagine it will be one of the southeastern electorates. Perhaps a case where three electorates dissolve into two, or four into three, without it being clear exactly which one should be considered “abolished”.

There are currently 18 seats east/ south of the Yarra and 21 seats west/ north of the Yarra. Based on January 2022 enrolments and 38 seats, the split would be 17.5 to 20.5. However, there are 17 seats that are growing relative to the average (based on July to Jan figures) – 12 to the west and 5 to the east. So it would be expected that the projection would end up being 17 east and 21 west though a seat may need to straddle the Yarra like Menzies did between 2016 and 2019. Of note is that all the non Melbourne seats except Mallee and Corio are in the growth range (and those two are just outside). My money is on Hotham going – and it has the most expendable name as well.

Nimalan
Fun fact. Before 1891 – the former Oakleigh and Waverley councils were one. So the current Monash boundary has an historical antecedent.

It’s going to be tough drawing an electorate that is split 50-50 by the Yarra.

Menzies is the obvious choice, but what becomes of Jagajaga? Perhaps it is elongated northwards into Whittlesea LGA.

Or maybe Menzies could be based on Banyule and the western end of Manningham, with Jagajaga becoming a metropolitan-rural hybrid.

Would it be too unthinkable for a division to cross the Yarra like the 1901 Melbourne Ports or Melbourne LGA?

The only other option I see is to split the Division of Casey in half.

Good point redistributed/Nicholas
i am also thinking that the Upper Yarra (Healsville/Yarra Glen to Warburton) can go into McEwen like was the case prior to 2013 in exchange for the Diamond Valley area going into Jagagaja. The Eastern suburbs are not experiencing population growth and increasingly represent a smaller share of Victoria’s population. For example, i dont believe Aston can consist purely of Knox LGA as it does perfectly now unless Victoria gains another seat. It will need to take territory from neighbouring LGA even Casey will need to expand beyond Yarra Ranges LGA.
Reditributed, in terms of Naming, i do agree that Hotham along with Gellibrand is the least likely to be retained. At the last redistribution i proposed that Hotham renamed Tucker instead of Corangamite . https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2021/vic/files/objections/vic21-ob0002-nimalan-sivakumar.pdf

Yoh An, you make a good comparison with Parramatta specifically the Woodville Ward. Like how the two Sydney’s meet in Parramatta, Monash LGA has the social divide going through it.

Nimalan, I would think if Aston and Casey had to expanded then it would make sense to take most of Maroondah out of Deakin and put Heathmont/Ringwood/Bayswater North into Aston and the Croydon area into Casey. May be too populated though.
Deakin could then take in the rest of Whitehorse from Chisholm and Chisholm shift south to take in most of the (abolished) Hotham.

Parramatta / Monash comparisons are interesting. There’s clearly no second CBD in Melbourne like Parramatta but I wonder what suburb would come close demographically. I feel like Mulgrave could be similar in that it’s very middle class like Parramatta but has very working class areas (Noble Park, Dandenong, Springvale) to the south and quite upper middle areas like Wheelers Hill, Glen Waverley to the north. Interestingly, whilst Melbourne has a much larger South Asian/Indian community than Sydney, I don’t think think there is anywhere in Melbourne with the same concentration of people of South Asian ancestry as Parramatta/Harris Park/Westmead/Wentworthville.

Mulgrave seems to be like Rydalmere/Dundas given they are halfway between the affluent north and working-class south with a moderate percentage of immigrants and highly middle class.

For my views in the outer east/Yarra Ranges, the boundaries don’t seem to reflect heavily on community interest. For example, I feel Gembrook seems to be better represented in Casey due to being a tourist hotspot with Public Transport heavily inclined to Belgrave (yes both the bus routes and even the Puffing Billy). For Lilydale/Montrose, I feel it should be more into Deakin as it has outer eastern suburb vibes. They onto the Whitehorse part of Deakin, I believe in could be taken out of Deakin especially South of Canterbury Road as recent demographic changes and development patterns made it more associated with suburbs like Glen Waverley/Burwood East rather than Croydon

Adam/Matthew,
Agree about Mulgrave being very middle class and being the transition suburb along the social divide. However, there is some variation within Mulgrave the Far east of the suburb close to the Dandenong Creek (In Bruce) is more affluent than the area close to Springvale. Booth results show this and Google Street view also show a variation in the housing. There are some indutraial areas close to Springvale Road in Mulgrave. Even in Wheelers Hill, the Brandon Park area is less affluent than the area around Jells Park.
Agree that the Cardinia part of the Dandenong Ranges (Emerald to Gembrook) fits better in Casey. This will be the case from 2022 in the state seat of Monbulk. Also Agree that Heathmont/Bayswater North will fit well in Aston.

The Pollbludger reports a seat by seat poll showing Gladys Liu leading 55-45. It is hard to believe but I have long thought Gladys Liu might be in a slightly stronger position than her 0.4% majority may indicate.
1. She may pick up votes or be latent Lib votes in the areas that were formerly Hotham. There would not have been an intense Lib campaign there last time.
2. Some ethnic Chinese voters might like the idea of voting for a Chinese origin candidate but last time they had a choice of Jennifer Yang as well.
Gladys Liu is a ferocious campaigner so won’t go down without a fight though I just can’t see her winning unless there is a major change between now and May.

That seat poll for Chisholm seems a bit hard to believe, but I do agree that Chisholm might not be such a straight forward win for the Labor Party as we thought. Still think Labor wins this though, but it’s not as safe a guarantee for Labor as Swan, Boothby, or maybe even Pearce.

The polls for Chisholm seem a bit inflated though. I actually expect Labor gain although the seat will remain marginal probably due to the demographics of the seat. Liu’s relations with Chinese voters have not gone down quite well as expected especially on the Australia-China relations and this can be evident in her not condemning Eric Abetz outright Chinese racism. In addition, Liberal Victoria (state faction) has made negative dog whistles on Chinese invasion in Victoria (despite states normal are kept out on foreign affairs). Some parts of the seat like Burwood have a small l liberal population.

i personally feel that after Gladys Liu the time may come for a second generation Chinese Australian who grew the in the area and went to local schools to represent the area some one like Jason Yat-sen Li who will be more assertive in denouncing racism, accusations of Dual Loyalty and McCarthyism. One issue with Gladys Liu is that she is not a strong media perfomer and does not seem to be able to stand up to her own party. However, i do agree that Gladys Liu was one of the first Asian Australians to be elected to HOR and it maybe easier for the next one and the one after that. Just as Julia Gillard said about Sexism is her farewell speech that it will be easier for the next female PM and the one after that.

@Nimalan Yat-Sen Li is calculated in his response to racism. He was rather mute when Michael Daley was leading the state Labor party and made comments about “Asians with PhD’s taking the jobs of Australians”; fearing if he spoke up he’d lose a potential preselection. He picks his spots.

His election night speech was quite disingenuous too, considering both parties had diverse volunteers and Labor had made the same, hard to substantiate claims about racism at the 2019 Federal election at the Ashfield booth. However, the claim was later dismissed as a reaction to Fiona Martin’s complaint that they had been physically intimidating.
I saw just as many Korean and Chinese volunteers for Bridget Sakr both on the campaign trail and at the election night campaign as JYL.

By all accounts Gladys Liu seems to have balanced her strong connections with the Chinese community whilst being a hardworking MP for all in the electorate. Although people in Chisholm may have a different opinion

@ LJ Davidson i agree with you there is always double standards with pollies and all parties are guilty of this. Also i believe Bridget Sakr was a strong candidate and i do hope that she makes either another run for Strathfield or stand for the upper house. When Daley make the comments the Libs had a strong candidate in Scott Yung who could have countered Daley’s comments. My comments were not intended to criticise Gladys Liu, IMHO was that someone of a culturally diverse background who grew up in Australia can be more assertive. For example i personally feel as someone who came to Australia as an 18 month old i am more likely to be vocal than my parents generation who came to Australia as adults. In the US, there has been the Stop Asian Hate Movement driven by American born Asians who are challenging the model minority myth etc and encouraging people to take a stand. I do hope as a generation of Australians of non-European heritage emerges there are more likely to challenge the prevailing narrative. This could also be applicable to other situations for example the so called issue with “African gangs” in Melbourne. i look forward to the day when for example an Australian born person of African heritage is in a position where they can debate someone like Dutton on the merits of his views on the matter.

@Nimalan I hope that day comes soon. I think parliaments are better for more diversity and taking the country to more exalted levels in discourse.
You mention Scott Yung, who I’ve met a few times and I personally think could be the face of the NSW Liberal Party in the next decade. I sincerely hope the party backs him the same way Labor has backed JYL.
Speaking of US politics, it’s been great to see Andrew Yang get more coverage, as an important voice for both Asian-Americans and 3rd Parties.
Gladys Liu may not be a big personality in parliament but her presence is important, which is why the Liberal and Labor’s preselection decisions in Bennelong and Parramatta have been so disappointing.
I don’t see much diversity in the “Voices of” Candidates either.

There seems to be a trend where Chinese Australians tend to vote more conservatively than their American and to some extent Canadian counterparts. There are many factors that could be the reason:
1) North America’s conservative party is more anti-immigrant compared to Australia
2) Chinese Australians are more aspirational and are from lower education backgrounds (but tiger parenting is still applied) meaning they tend open small businesses unlike the ones in North America who are from more educational and professional backgrounds
3) As a result of a less aspirational background, there seems to be a strong sense of conservatism in Chinese Australians
However, things could change in 2022 as I heard the same Chinese Australians who once supported and voted for Scomo in 2019 are heavily disapproving of his government.

A 55-45 poll doesn’t make any sense really when this was a line ball 50-50 result at the last election. On top of that the large cohort of voters of Chinese ancestry in Chisholm are broadly not going to appreciate a Government who seems to be stoking China, especially when the Australian society overall sees there is not much good that comes out of alienating what is by far your largest trading partner.

I agree with others. The poll simply doesn’t add up and as others say on this website, Take seat polls with a pinch of salt because they tend to be small samples and simply do not reflect. I predict while Labor is almost a shoe-in to get this seat it will remain below a 3% margin and if the government wins an upset victory then they could be disappointed here again.

Demographics don’t appear to be helping Labor too much here compared to other Melbourne seats however it must be noted Anna Burke had a huge personal vote here which was evident in 2016 when Julia Banks became a rare seat-gainer despite the swing against her party nationally.

I agree Labor shouldn’t be complacent about this seat (Remember last time) But the polls appear to be worse for the government nationally than this time 3 years ago so at the moment they would need (In the PM’s words) A bigger miracle than the last election due to some voters simply being reluctant to give the government a 4th chance.

The methodology of these seat polls really need to change because this is beyond ridiculous at this point, I suspect a Labor gain but will remain marginal for several years to come.

Interesting thing to note is that in 2019, most of Gladys Liu’s posters contained a picture of Scomo. This time, not a single one does. Goes to show how deeply unpopular he is around here.

Talking to a few local observers, consensus is that Libs are out campaigning Labor here, but that although some in the community love Liu others do not.