Casey – Australia 2022

With the retirement of Tony Smith & the unpopularity of the Liberal federal government Labor could pick up this seat if they play there cards right.

Style note: You’ve got the colours the wrong way round on the two-party-preferred result

Looking at the historical trend, it doesn’t seem like Tony Smith had that much of a personal factor one way or the other. Since the outer east firmed up for the Liberals in 1990, Casey seems to follow closely the state trend, always around 6-8% above the Liberal state average no matter who the MP was. So I’m not sure his retirement would affect the prospects of either side dramatically.

Mark, a couple of things to mention. Casey in the 90’s didn’t cover the 90% of the Dandenong ranges in fact the seat is now basically old La trobe. There is change in the demographics of Lilydale, Coldstream & Chirnside Park that are getting a lot of new housing developments rather then being small little towns.

Casey has a distinct north and south. North around Lilydale is more conservative and the south in the Dandenongs votes (in some cases) very heavily 2pp for the ALP. The north part is growing and the south is not so the demographic direction is toward the Libs. It is also worth noting that in 2018 the State Libs held the seats in the north (Evelyn, Croydon, Eildon) but which had all been lost in the 2002 landslide.
Labor have endorsed the same candidate as 2019 – methinks they might find an excuse to dump him if they get a sniff they might win. It must be said that all the ALP candidates endorsed in the outer Eastern suburbs seem to be less than inspiring.

@redistributed Can you assume that new residents of the Lilydale area will vote the same as established residents?

Nicholas, not sure if you have ever been to Lilydale but from the look of the houses and the vehicles, my guess is that they would vote the same way if not more so.

Nicholas

Not sure of you have ever been to Lilydale or Yarra Glen. But from the look of the new houses, and the look of the vehicles, my guess is that they would vote the same way as present if not more so.

Okay, I will take your word for it. I only ask because two common assumptions made about new residents are a) they will vote the same as established residents, and b) they will necessarily vote Liberal. Neither are universally true. (See my comment on the Greenway thread.)

There is a high Greens vote in many parts of this electorate, making the government very vulnerable if the election becomes a referendum on climate policy. This seat is the classic danger zone for a Liberal Party that has surrendered to the National Party on environment policy.

Barry
“This seat is the classic danger zone for a Liberal Party that has surrendered to the National Party on environment policy.” Wow !!. How do you figure that !??

Barry, the only thing i would be say about the Greens vote is that it is very much concentrated in certain parts of the electorate namely the Dandenongs, which is increasingly like the Blue Mountains. The suburban areas around Lilydale/Mooroollbark is quite socially conservative and can be compared to the Sutherland Shire or Hawkesbury LGA. At the 2019 election these two parts of the electorate had a swing in the opposite direction which is essence cancelled each other out. I am thinking this could soon the Macquarie of Victoria with an increasingly polarised seat along social policy rather than class.

Nimalan is quite right and the similarity to Macquarie is a good call. In both seats, the areas that are conservative are growing faster so the Libs are in a slightly better solution. The Green vote in the Dandenongs does tail off toward the east where there is still a lot of horticulture.

I am not sure if the ‘surrender’ to the National Party will resonate as much here as it may in Deakin, Kooyong, Higgins, Goldstein or Flinders.

Nimalan makes a good point about the similarity between Casey and Macquarie. In both cases the socially conservative and wealthier areas are growing faster than the other so there is a long term benefit to the Libs.
I don’t think the ‘surrender’ to the National Party will resonate as much here as it would in Deakin, Kooyong, Higgins, Goldstein or Flinders.

Would suspect stays liberal….but what was smith’s personal vote

I am now confident in saying that this stays Liberal for the reasons I put in Chisholm.

Slight swing against the coalition though.

Aaron Violi, former advisor to Senator James Patterson has been pre-selected as the new Liberal candidate for Casey.

Not good, I hope the ALP get serious about winning again because they always let these poor LNP candidates in office.

If I were the ALP I would stop targeting QLD seats and put them into seats like this.

Daniel – why do you think Aaron Violi is a poor candidate?

@redistributed – the question should be why anyone takes Daniel’s posts even remotely seriously.

I agree with Daniel, the candidate that has been selected by the LNP was a poor choice & if the ALP run a good campaign in this seat they could pick it up. I personally don’t understand labor obsession with targeting the same QLD seats despite doing poorly in them.

I believe that Aaron Violi is aligned with right faction thats why I personally think he’s not a good candidate for this particular seat.

Bob, the second placed candidate seemed to be aligned with the Sukkar / Tudge/ Andrews conservative faction. Full report here:

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/local-beats-out-crowded-field-to-replace-retiring-speaker-in-casey-20211112-p598dr.html

Michael Sukkar’s recent factional shenanigans may not have helped his man on the day. The Age also reported that Aaron Violi was the most locally embedded candidate. Having looked at Aaron Violi’s linkedin profile, it is refreshing to see an aspiring major party candidate who actually holds down a proper job outside of day to day politics. He did a short stint as a staffer though.

Hawkeye_au I also question why people take your opinions remotely seriously as well. If you are going to criticise me actually explain why you disagree because this just sounds like political philosophy.

He is a poor candidate because as Bob has said is aligned with the right-faction. This is why Labor should take this seat more seriously than many QLD marginals as QLD is more conservative than Victoria.

It’s hard to exactly know how many voters are actually aware of how conservative or liberal their candidates are but even if it’s 5-10% of Liberal voters who don’t like how conservative the candidate is could cost them this seat providing Labor can win these voters (Moderate Liberals) But it was clear at the last election Labor lost the moderate vote mainly because of their tax policy and their shifting stance on asylum seekers.

I don’t know who will win Casey at the next election as their are factors going against both majors. Like for Labor Daniel Andrews having a lukewarm approval but also the Vic Liberals have had their own problems so it’s really hard to judge where this seat will go. But I will say this, whoever wins government is more likely than not to win this seat.

I know I’ve made this point before but a) how many voters actually know/care about ALP factions, and b) how many still believe they’re anything more than patronage lanes and marketing labels?

I believe factions don’t have as much impact for Australia compared to a similar dynamic for US elections. In US, if a Republican candidate is too conservative then they can easily lose a swing district.

This effect is not as strong for Australian elections because preselections are closed and the public is generally not aware of these contests

That’s true. There’s also Australia’s, and particularly the Labor party’s, tradition of near absolute party discipline that means that none of these politicians are ever going to vote differently from the party line anyway.

And there’s also the fairly noticeable stat of Smith’s primary vote vs Liberal Senate vote.
HoR vote (LNP overall) 38.58%
Senate vote (LNP overall) 35.9%
Therefore the Senate vote is roughly 93.05% of the HoR vote.
Tony Smith (Casey) 45.25%
LNP overall (Casey) 38.82%
In Casey the Senate vote was 85.79% of the HoR vote.
In summary, Tony Smith has a personal vote of at least 3.75%, meaning this seat will be quite marginal UNLESS Violi can recoup the lion’s share of those votes.
TBH thought his personal vote would be a lot higher than that but you never know. The SMH/Age were reporting he has a personal vote of 7% but the measure of that is simply misleading, given major party votes in HoR vs. Senate is always higher in the House because there’s less choice.
For example:
HEMP received 1.6%, Shooters received 2.4%. One Nation got 2.8%.

This seat is being viewed as in play by labor strategists. Demographic change, a very right wing Liberal candidate and the retirement of Tony Smith will make this a seat to watch on election night.

@John T
I think this could well be one to watch, but not due to demographic changes. I lived in this seat for 24 years and now live next door in Aston and can confidently say there has been almost no demographic change at all.

Ryan
I suspect that this large House/Senate differential attained by Tony Smith, is because of his privileges as Speaker.
The ALP has gone easy on him. The Liberal Party excused him from a candidate’s usual duty of campaigning against the ALP specifically.
And like Speaker Harry Jenkins Jr., (& any decent & durable speaker), who was afforded the same privileges, voters have gone easy on him;- as evidenced even by Scullin results after a single term as Speaker, in 2010.
ALP Primary vote Senate Scullin: 53.7
Jenkins Primary vote: Scullin: 62.1
ALP Primary vote Senate Victoria: 37.76
Victorian HoR vote: 42.8.

In other words, a differential of 8.4 pp in Scullin
5.04 pp in Victoria.
Voters may be inclined to notice the Party-room non-attendance of Speakers.

Sportsbet have Labor as slight favourites, paying $1.80 to the Coalition’s $1.90. Should be an interesting watch in the next four months.

Claire Ferres Miles has been endorsed as the “Voices of …” candidate in Casey. Up until the endorsement, she was CEO of Sustainibilty Victoria.

Ferres Miles is a very, very strong candidate, and she might just get help to Labor over the line here. We would normally be shocked to Labor as the favourite to win this seat, but the new Liberal candidate’s hard right views will not serve him well. He is no Tony Smith and Morrison’s brand in Victoria is not getting any better.

Aaron Violi won’t win Casey because Bill Brindle will win thanks to greenies & Voices of candidate preferences.

In large parts of Casey – such as around Belgrave and Kallista – there can hardly be that many Lib votes left to lose as the Lib PV is already in the low 20’s. These areas might get interesting as the UAP might be able to tap into some degree of anti vaxxer sentiment.
The battleground will be around Montrose and Lilydale where the Libs stack up their majorities. It is hard to see the Voices candidate doing that well in these areas but again the UAP might be able to tap into outer suburban disgruntlement. The UAP candidate has a very schmick website without a hint of yellow!! It also indicates that the candidate is pretty serious about getting out there and meeting the voters.
I can see the Voices candidate doing well in the hills and around Warburton but cannibalising the Greens and ALP vote. The north part of the seat is just not their demographic, too aspirational and too tradie.
I would rate the chances of an ALP win in Casey to be pretty high and if the UAP get nasty to the Libs, the swing might be quite high.

Agree, that areas in the Dandenongs are increasingly very weak for the Libs but the northern part around Lilydale and Mooralbark is as i pointed out in a previous post quite right wing, monocultural and similar to the Sutherland shire it has a high proportion of tradespeople and self-employed. It is a demographic that Scomo does well with and full of so called Quiet Australians like redistributed correctly pointed out. This is the demographic that is his support base. If he cannot do well here i cant see him doing well anywhere.

redistributed, referencing the UAP, I think it could lure some votes from the outer suburban tradies but I don’t think it would capture so many votes in the Dandenongs as those alternative lifestyles are different to Byron Bay. They are older and more educated meaning anti-vax sentiments are lower. On another topic, Casey pretty much duplicates the state seats of Evelyn (LNP) around Lilydale, Elldon (LNP) around Yarra Valley, and Monbulk (ALP) around the Dandenongs with their reliable demographics. This can make the seat swing more in line with the national swings.

I would argue most voters, Liberal or not, wouldn’t have any idea where the Liberal candidate sits in the spectrum. Claire Ferres Miles, as the community independent, has good chances to actually win this seat. She is strong on Climate/Sustainability, being the former CEO of Sustainability Victoria and obviously knows economics, infrastructure etc. Labour might help her win the seat.

I think Labor have a reasonable chance here even if they are starting at a low base. The Libs only received 45% of the vote last time – normally that is their danger zone – but they were helped by lots of odds and sods candidates. I am not that convinced that Tony Smith had much of a personal vote, the voting outcomes don’t suggest that he did. The Voices candidates will take votes away from Libs, Labor and Greens but I can’t see them doing any better than a distant third – too strong a Labor and Green base vote in the south and the demographics in the North don’t work in their favour either. This is just speculation but I do wonder if the ALP would have picked a different candidate if they had known Tony Smith was retiring – he didn’t do well last time and is there anything to suggest that he will do better this time?

I think Labor have a reasonable chance here even if they are starting at a low base. The Libs only received 45% of the vote last time – normally that is their danger zone – but they were helped by lots of odds and sods candidates. I am not that convinced that Tony Smith had much of a personal vote, the voting outcomes don’t suggest that he did. The Voices candidates will take votes away from Libs, Labor and Greens but I can’t see them doing any better than a distant third – too strong a Labor and Green base vote in the south and the demographics in the North don’t work in their favour either. This is just speculation but I do wonder if the ALP would have picked a different candidate if they had known Tony Smith was retiring – he didn’t do well last time and is there anything to suggest that he will do better this time?

Aaron Violi signs including billboards have been put up all over the electorate especially around Lilydale. They’ve been there at least 4 weeks. I haven’t seen one sign for the ALP or any candidate. Labour will have their work cut out for them as they are starting from a long way back….Even with Slomo on the nose.

It is similar in Deakin – Michael Sukkar billboards everywhere and direct mail has started too. But nothing from the ALP. In Chisholm, Gladys Liu’s posters have been out for months and there is the odd Carina Garland poster too in the northern part. Front garden corflutes have started to appear for both Liu and Garland.

I like the look of the independent, seems genuine about what she wants to do and represents. Sick of party politicians… New to Lilydale

It is interesting to note that Aaron Violi is out and about constantly but haven’t seen any of the other candidates. Perhaps that is a sign that they know they can’t reasonably make a change at all? I haven’t heard of any of the other people running so it would be good to hear more of what they stand for.

Be very wary of supposed independent candidates. Most are extremists from the left side of politics but also on on occasions they can came from the right. I have no doubt that Claire Ferres Miles is further left in her thinking than the most militant barely literate unionist. The decision she makes as to who receives her preferences will further strengthen this argument. We do not need extremists representing us when the nation is suffering from record debt. We need tough love. We need a focus which for far too many means getting off your backside and finding work. We don’t need sympathy and more taxpayer funded welfare for people who won’t help themselves. It is time for every every able bodied Australian to stand on his or her own 2 feet and be entirely self-sufficient – financially and emotionally. Instead of all the focus on the supposedly disadvantaged & vulnerable (many due to moronic & disgraceful life choices) we should be honoring and celebrating those among us who work hard, pay their taxes and will never receive 1 cent of taxpayer support during their lifetime. It is time Australia looked after those who do the right thing and spend everyday of their lives trying to achieve one outcome – self-sufficiency.

@Sean Your entire comment was a weak as piss, victim-blaming attack on your fellow Australians. A few of your words stood out though: “moronic and disgraceful.” A perfect description of both your comment and your divisive, unaustralian views.

Sean is a strong lib supporter trying to help his party.. but he overstated his comments.. so failed

“we should be honoring and celebrating those among us who work hard, pay their taxes and will never receive 1 cent of taxpayer support during their lifetime.”

Who exactly is that?

There’s not one Australian who hasn’t benefited from some form of government expenditure, on roads, education funding (public or private), health (again, private or public), police and the multitude of government infrastructure projects such as stadiums.

The people who think they don’t get government support generally need to have a long look at themselves, then turn around and shut the hell up.

Sean

It’s not like people who are born into vulnerable circumstances can do much to change their circumstances when they’re children.