LIB 4.6%
Incumbent MP
Tony Smith, since 2001.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Casey covers the entire Yarra Ranges Shire along with a very small part of the Cardinia council area. Major centres include Lilydale, Montrose, Mooroolbark, Seville, Yarra Junction, Healesville and large areas in the Yarra Ranges with small populations.
Redistribution
Casey expanded slightly on its southern edge, taking in a small area near Emerald from La Trobe.
History
Casey was created for the 1969 election and has almost always been considered to be a marginal seat. Despite the slim margins, the Liberal Party has managed to hold onto the seat consistently since 1984, after an early period where the ALP managed to hold it during the Whitlam government and the Hawke government’s first term.
Casey was first won in 1969 by Peter Howson. Howson had been Member for Fawkner since 1955, and had served as Minister for Air from 1964 until John Gorton’s first cabinet reshuffle, when he was dropped. He returned to cabinet as Australia’s first Minister for the Environment in William McMahon’s cabinet in 1971, but lost his seat in 1972 to the ALP’s Race Mathews.
Mathews held Casey for both terms of the Whitlam government, losing the seat to Peter Falconer (LIB) in 1975. Mathews went on to hold the Victorian state seat of Oakleigh from 1979 until 1992, and served as a state minister from 1982 to 1988.
Peter Falconer was reelected in 1977 and 1980, but lost Casey to the ALP’s Peter Steedman in 1983. Steedman held the seat for one term, and lost to Liberal Bob Halverson in 1984.
The Liberal Party never lost Casey again, and Halverson went on to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the first term of the Howard government until his retirement in 1998.
Casey was won in 1998 by Dr Michael Wooldridge, the Howard government’s Health Minister. Wooldridge had previously held Chisholm since 1987, moving to Casey in 1998. He held it for one term before retiring from politics in 2001.
The seat was won in 2001 by Tony Smith. Smith has been re-elected six times, and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives in August 2015.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Tony Smith is not running for re-election.
- Jenny Game (Greens)
- Craig Cole (Independent)
- Andrew Klop (Animal Justice)
- Aaron Violi (Liberal)
- Bill Brindle (Labor)
- Paul Murphy (One Nation)
- Chris Field (Federation)
- Trevor Smith (Liberal Democrats)
- Peter Sullivan (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Anthony Bellve (United Australia)
- Claire Ferres Miles (Independent)
Assessment
Casey has remained in Liberal hands for decades, but has rarely been held by a safe margin. If Labor is doing well in Victoria they could have a chance here, particularly with the retirement of the long-term sitting MP.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tony Smith | Liberal | 45,168 | 45.2 | -2.3 | 45.2 |
| Bill Brindle | Labor | 28,551 | 28.6 | +0.4 | 28.6 |
| Jenny Game-Lopata | Greens | 10,919 | 10.9 | -1.9 | 11.0 |
| Ryan Leslie Clark | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 3,309 | 3.3 | +2.6 | 3.3 |
| Travis Barker | Animal Justice | 3,105 | 3.1 | -1.2 | 3.1 |
| Wendy Starkey | United Australia Party | 2,607 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.6 |
| Peter Charleton | Independent | 2,302 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 2.3 |
| Ross Mcphee | Democratic Labour Party | 2,246 | 2.2 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Antony Calabro | Rise Up Australia | 820 | 0.8 | -1.6 | 0.8 |
| Jayden O’Connor | Great Australian Party | 801 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 6,892 | 6.5 | +2.4 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tony Smith | Liberal | 54,551 | 54.6 | +0.1 | 54.6 |
| Bill Brindle | Labor | 45,277 | 45.4 | -0.1 | 45.4 |
Polling places in Casey have been divided into five areas.
The Liberal Party won a majority in four out of five areas, ranging from 50.7% in the east to 57.1% in the centre. Labor won 62.5% in the south-west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in the west to 22% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 8.9 | 54.5 | 20,029 | 19.9 |
| Central | 10.0 | 57.1 | 12,272 | 12.2 |
| South-West | 22.0 | 37.5 | 10,185 | 10.1 |
| East | 11.3 | 50.7 | 6,221 | 6.2 |
| North | 13.1 | 52.1 | 4,131 | 4.1 |
| Pre-poll | 9.0 | 58.7 | 30,569 | 30.4 |
| Other votes | 10.2 | 58.0 | 17,231 | 17.1 |
Election results in Casey at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Franking credits to those who pay no tax.is taxpayer support
In relation to Sean’s comment I’m now better off being retired than when I worked.I’m concerned that we are making things harder for our grandchildren. The idea that everyone deserves what they get is the great Australian”myth.of equality”. A caring society should look after the less fortunate.Ryan is correct in saying that we all benefit from Government spending in some form. I hear often from my fellow ” Riley Retirees and Baby Boomers” that the young are lazy and privileged, but then I count my franking credits and defined benefit super and realise who really are the privileged in our society.
Labor are directing resources here, looks like they think that there is a chance for them here
I wouldn’t be suprised if this is a suprise Labor gain on election night.
Craig Cole’s website is here
http://craigcoleindependentcasey.com
Craig Cole misses to mention that he is supported by Australia One…. even though they have been deregistered in January 2022 they are still running a Facebook page where he is listed
Nicole Gale
Australia One or Australia First? While barely indistinguishable, I don’t think that Australia One ever were a party.
Craig Cole says that his policies are the same as Australia one- Check them out – scary stuff!
Labor seems to think they have a chance here, this will be an interesting watch on the night.
I’m starting to think Labor have a chance in a lot of seats with margins up to 10% and a few beyond. They may not pick up a lot of them but Morrison is clearly on the nose.
On Riccardo Bosi (Greenway) and Craig Cole (Casey) – Australia One’s most famous Candidates – with threats to do acts of terror (in their own words) https://youtu.be/JS4b5NgyMZ0?t=480
One of the preference distributions in the Upwey booth seems to have gone wrong. Either Greens or Teal Indy gone to the wrong pile.
Good to know redistributed, I was wondering why on earth there was a 10% swing to the Liberals in the Upwey booth with no such swing in nearby Upwey South, Tecoma, Upper Ferntree Gully or Belgrave.
It seems that Labor underperformed here compared to the 2010 (even though it was an open seat this time) when they would have come within 0.5% TPP of winning this seat although looking at booth results, they have done better in Sassafras, Kallista, Selby and Ferny Creek etc compared to 2010.
The results here were weird imo.
The TPP was,
Labor: 48.52%
Liberal: 51.48%
The 3CP was,
Greens: 23.18%
Labor: 30.41%
Liberal: 46.41%
And the 4CP was,
Claire Ferres Miles (Ind): 15.02%
Greens: 15.14%
Labor: 26.83%
Liberal: 43.01%
The Greens could have hypothetically won if they’d managed something like an extra 3% off Labor and 2% off the Liberals. And that’s despite nearly being excluded into 4th place. Labor nearly won the seat itself with a primary of only 24.87%, which feels quite low for Labor.
Interesting to see that the alp wants this electorate abolished, personally I don’t think it makes much sense.
@ Space Fish
There is a lot of opposition from the local community for this seat to be abolished. I now think it is more likely it will be retained and renamed Barak. I am hoping this will lead to Hotham being abolished which i strongly believe will be a better outcome
@nimalan I don’t think it will be Casey either they will either abolish hotham or McEwen being the two leftover seats.
@ John,
If McEwen gets abolished in effect Casey will merge with it as there will have be a lot of changes to Casey and Yarra Ranges Shire will be likely be split multiple ways which may trigger a lot of opposition.
@nimalan Ive merged it with jagajaga and got no complaints
Hotham to me makes the most sense to be abolished. With Casey they should be moving the rest of Dandenong suburbs into electorate not splitting it up further.
@spacefish my submission puts Dandenong into Hotham. Whilst I sort of agree with the Hotham case to me McEwen was the bigger problem crossing west North and eastern Melbourne lgas in the north. If there was a clear growth area like in NSW I would have abolished both. But there wasn’t so I abolished McEwen in effect jagajaga to preserve the name of a pm and tightened up Hotham to only be in 3 lgas.
I don’t see anyone having any opposition to Yarra Ranges being split up other than the council itself. Yarra Ranges isn’t a strong community of interest as far as LGAs go. There are really 3 or 4 distinct areas, with Lilydale/Chirnside/Mooroolbark distinct from the Dandenong Ranges, distinct from Yarra Glen/Healesville, and then the Upper Yarra around Woori Yallock, Warburton etc.
Upwey/Tecoma/Belgrave and even Olinda/Sassafras have stronger ties to Knox/Aston and Chirnside Park, Mooroolbark, Montrose, Lilydale have strong ties to Maroondah/Deakin. The more rural areas could easily be combined with rural parts of McEwen or even Indi.
Sorry I mean Dandenong Rangers suburbs.
Upwey/Tecoma/Belgrave and even Olinda/Sassafras do not have stronger ties with Knox/Aston the electorate is more like Maroondah/Deakin or Whitehorse. There are some really small parts of Dandenong Rangers that are in Knox that should be moved out such as the small parts of Sassafras which doesn’t have many people living in it and a small part of Upper Ferntree Gully which does have a decent population but is out of place with the rest of the electorate. I find it hard to believe that Upwey/Tecoma/Belgrave and even Olinda/Sassafras have any community interest with Rowville, Wantirna, Knox field and etc.
@adam I did something similar to that and received no complaits. They won’t put them in Indi as they have previously stated that the ranges serve as a nice natural barrier between Casey and Indi
@Spacefish, I know the area well, I grew up in Tecoma. I admit that places like Wantirna have a stronger community of interest with Whitehorse, Monash and Maroondah, than the southwest Yarra Ranges. That’s not what I was saying though. I was saying Upwey/Tecoma/Belgrave has closer links to Knox than to the Lilydale area. Burwood Hwy and the Belgrave railway line are very strong links to Ferntree Gully, Boronia etc. Aston/Knox already contains many parts of the foothills, around The Basin, Upper Ferntree Gully and the parts of Ferntree Gully and Boronia east of Dorset Rd. Knox City is the closest shopping centre for people in the hills as well, and you’ll find they play many sports etc in the same leagues.
this is what ive done with Casey
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DLaVngWa8XTZqL9S2KihD90JRB1fdyGg/view?usp=drive_link
John,
I like the suggestions that you’ve done, they make sense. I would still like to see in future redistributions where the Dandenong Rangers hills suburbs are all in one electorate.
Which are those?
The best example of all the Dandenong Ranges being united is Monbulk state electorate. It goes from the eastern parts of Ferntree Gully and Boronia in the west all the way through to Gembrook in the east, south to Narre Warren East and north to Kalorama and parts of Wandin. Can’t think of any part of the Dandenongs or even the foothills that aren’t included except maybe Montrose and Mt Evelyn.
@ Adam,
The Libs in their submission for Aston would like Narre Warren East, Belgrave South included in Aston but oppose Upwey & Tecoma to be included arguing they are tree change suburbs.
Having grown up in Aston, adding Narre Warren East/North and surrounds isn’t ridiculous – it would fit well with Lysterfield and Rowville, and the arrangement would prevent Casey (or a Deakin/McEwen that included the Dandenongs) from extending too far south.
It would also keep Upwey and Tecoma with Belgrave in the same seat instead of splitting them.
It makes more sense for Upwey Tecoma and Belgrave to be in Aston since it is a contiguous urban area with Knox, whereas there is a separation between Belgrave South, Narre Warren East/North, and Rowville/Lysterfield.
Belgrave South and Narre Warren East tend to ‘look south’ so-to-speak, towards Berwick and Narre Warren for services/shops etc whereas Upwey/Tecoma/Belgrave ‘look west’ towards Knox.
@ Adam
Good point i guess Narre Warren East, Belgrave South, Harkaway etc will shop at Westfield Fountain Gate while Upwey, Tecoma residents probably use Westfield Knox City instead.