Brisbane – Australia 2022

Eminently winnable seat for Labor/Greens if they work for it. Just about everywhere west of the inner city bypass is now decisively left-leaning territory at the state level, including places like the Grange, Lutwyche, Ashgrove, etc etc. The amount of medium/high density development over the last few years is ridiculous. There are massive amounts of new, young renters, the sorts of people that should never vote for the Coalition if the Opposition makes even half an overture. New Farm and Teneriffe might be trending more conservative, presumably because only the very rich can afford to live there anymore, but it’s not nearly enough to offset the general dynamic. Even parts of the blue ribbon east (Clayfield, Hamilton, etc) have had similar sorts of demographic changes, if not nearly to the same extent.

The problem is that Labor might decide they don’t want to splash a lot of cash here, either because they’re more worried about sandbagging places like Lilley, they’re worried that the Greens might ultimately benefit rather than Labor, or they’re thinking that, say, Dickson is due for a Labor member instead (very wishful thinking imo despite the margin on paper).

Far too early to make predictions yet

Fl
Those “massive amounts of new, young renters, the sorts of people that should never vote for the Coalition if the Opposition makes even half an overture”
Pray tell what that “half an overture” might be composed of, or look like ? Those ignorant, or naughty young voters who might see things differently ?

Albo is unelectable. He is not a leader. Neither is the PM.. however he is ( perceived as) a better manager.
Steven Conroy has said repeatedly “that 42 % of voters voted for greater climate action. 58% did not. Therefore there is not one more vote to be gained from (a RET of) 50% nett zero, & labor will continue to lose elections pursuing these policies ”
I’m sure that you don’t have much regard for my opinions. Perhaps those of Troy, Bramston, Richo, Conroy, & many others so far silent, may have some weight.

If those Young voters had any sense they ought to be incensed at the legacy of debt that will be bequeathed to them, BY OUR GENERATIONS. With the connivance of every govt of the last 15 years. And accordingly vote against all politicians.

Early prediction: the Greens vote isn’t going to change significantly here this time around.

General prediction: in addition to no real change this time, they’ll never get out of third here until they can properly lay the groundwork in the northeast.

Alex J How much did Bartlett enhance the Green vote. Agree with everything else. This seat seems to be one of the seats drifting to the left over “progressive” causes, but without much impetus or pattern.

This seat looks like it will be altered in the next redistribution moving north or east +or – 20000 voters

winediamond – as you can read in the table in Ben’s post, the Greens got a +2.9% swing last time. How much of that is due to Bartlett you ask? Well, we can’t know for sure but I can compare Senate 4PP and House Primary swings statewide on the theory that the Senate vote isn’t subject to the same candidate effects (which is true for the majors, but less so for the Greens and not at all so for Hanson – but at least they’re fairly consistent statewide.)

Statewide, I calculate that the Greens got a +2.54% swing on Senate 4PP and the AEC says they got a +1.49% primary vote swing in the House statewide. So we might expect the Senate swing to be about 1 point more than the House swing.

The Greens’ Senate 4PP swing for Brisbane specifically was +3.96% and would you look at that, it’s pretty much a one-point difference.

Is any of this proper statistical analysis? Not really, no. But I hope it paints a picture

As for Brisbane drifting substantially further northeast, I don’t see it. Enrolment at the election was 115K for Brisbane and Petrie, 108K for Lilley and Dickson, 106K for Ryan. If those trends continue then they’re fairly easily resolvable with Dickson and Lilley nibbling at the southern end of Petrie and then Ryan nibbling at the western edge of Brisbane. There’s no need IMHO for Brisbane to pick up more voters from Lilley.

Alex J
I really Appreciate you taking the trouble for such a thorough reply. Its really difficult to see where Brisbane (seat) is heading infall respects. Given the noise & effort with Bartlett was the result a vindication ?
After all the noise about the Bob Brown caravan, it extremely ironic that as you have demonstrated, everyone missed that the Green vote INCRASED ! How did that happen !?

With Brisbane i think you need to factor in 10000 voters from Longman, & 7000 from Fisher. so grazing, or nibbling won’t cut it mate ! The AEC will need to serve UP a proper meal !
cheers WD

I don’t think you should be surprised that the Green vote went up statewide. Sure, the Bob Brown caravan wasn’t well received in Central or Northern Queensland, but there just aren’t that many Green votes to lose outside SEQ, and in any event regardless of where you live, if you were offended by it you probably don’t vote Greens anyway.

—–

I discovered today that the AEC do quarterly enrolment reports by district. Repeating the June 2019 through March 2021 population changes forward to March 2025 (when the next Qld redistribution is due to start) shows that the Sunshine Coast, MBRC and Brisbane Northside districts will collectively be 29% of an electorate above quota, that the rest of SEQ will collectively be 18% of an electorate above quota, Groom + Maranoa 19% below, and the rest of the state 28% below.

At least Kennedy and Leichhardt almost cancel out. Hinkler and Wide Bay are also basically within tolerance but we still need to move a third of an electorate through them.

The west’s problems might be surprisingly solvable: put the Somerset Regional Council (the rural part of Blair) in Maranoa and let Groom expand back into Maranoa as needed. (And Blair into Oxley, etc.) There might even be a bit left over to give some of the Winton/Longreach/Barcaldine LGAs away!

As we expected, on the Greater Northside there’s relative decline in Ryan, Lilley and Dickson, and growth in the rest.

The real challenge, as you say, will be in shedding people from Longman in a way that’s only mostly awful.

I don’t see how it’ll be possible to avoid crossing the forest and putting Toorbul and Bribie in Fisher. That lets us finish turning Wide Bay into a mostly-Sunshine-Coast district (taking Kenilworth, Yandina, maybe Coolum…); for Flynn to get Maryborough and Tiaro; and then we’ve finally got enough surplus for Capricornia and Dawson to each come south a bit. Back in Brisbane this leaves the Northside’s cupboard pretty bare – one of Brisbane or Ryan might have to cross the river (because of where the bridges are it’s generally easier for the North to borrow a peninsula from the South).

Alexj
Perhaps we see the the magnitude of population movements a little differently. We just don’t know how many Victorians will feel compelled flee !!. “” but we still need to move a third of an electorate through them.””
Is it that much ? IT didn’t appears so to me.

You raise many fascinating possibilities. Ryan pinching the CUB suburbs on the CENTENARY Hwy. was particularly alluring. Haven’t the AEC sworn never again !? The Brisbane River inviolate forever !?

Have you considered the possibility that Wright could easily cede the Lockyer Valley to Groom & hence Maranoa ? The Gold Coast in already way over quota, & lots of Victorians are on their way !!. BTW we don’t want them in NSW either !.

Actually it’s not actually the Green’s that i mind. or their antics, & somber/clownish grandstanding. I can cope with the lecturing, & preaching, & the holy devotion to purity. What gets me is the hypocrisy, & the inability to acknowledge wrongs mistakes,& faults that i can’t handle . I know that it’s my issue & a hangover from being married to a reformer/ perfectionist Type i for 16 years. The Greens, & most Greens Reps are the same personality type, so it does grate. i sometimes darkly remark, that the biggest downside of having a disabled child, is that one can only achieve a divorce in name only !!
As Sam Crosby says so precisely” the Greens reject the good to demand the pure” .
Resisting imperfection leads to misery (me)

winediamond

My figures are only estimates, but if current trends hold, Herbert+Dawson+Capricornia+Flynn will collectively be between a quarter and a third of an electorate under quota by the next redistribution; Flynn in particular will be more than 10% under.

The cleanest large part of northern Longman to transfer is the section east of the Bruce Highway, and that’s a bit over a third of an electorate (not a bad thing; it’d give the northern seats a small cushion).

As for putting the Lockyer Valley in Groom: I did consider it but it is apparently over 40,000 people, much more than needed. So Maranoa would presumably have to take actual Toowoomba suburbia to make up its deficit, which seems silly. Thirdly, the mood with the last Qld redistribution was that Wright should not encroach further on the Gold Coast, so I’m loath to remove people from Wright if I can avoid it.

I don’t expect to *need* to cross the river, but I am trying to avoid drawing the Brisbane Northside + Sunshine Coast systemically under and everywhere else systemically at or over. Giving Ryan everything down to Corinda, or Brisbane the KP peninsula (esp. given they’re getting a pedestrian bridge to the CBD now) might well be the most straightforward way to balance the numbers.

AlexJ
Always find your views interesting. I guess i just don’t trust population estimates. Also i can see a huge exodus of Victorians to QLD. The assumptions drawn thus may well be wrong. Your methodology seems more detailed, & exacting than mine.
Have you ever considered a future mandate limiting maximum size of electorates ?. Say along the lines of amalgamating Maranoa, & Groom & then splitting them into 2 roughly equal halves. I believe there was a Labor proposal to do something similar in the NT RECENTLY ?.
Whatever happens it appears that difficult decisions will have to be made. WRT to Wright i can’t see how big changes won’t happen, as it’s such an invention of convenience in the second place.
What is the “KP peninsular”?
cheers WD

I think Labor would have loved to get the popular former state MP Kate Jones to stand in this seat. There were rumor’s that she was considering a run in this seat, but she didn’t nominate. I think it’s likely she doesn’t think it’s Labor’s time this election. And she may be gearing up for a run as Brisbane City Lord Mayor which has also been rumored.

The seat of Brisbane is different to when Arch Bevis held the seat. The change of demographics and redistribution has made it more tinged with blue. I will wait closer to the election for a prediction but I still think the LNP are favorites. But it is certainly a seat Labor can win when they get into government though.

Winediamond – KP refers to the Kangaroo Point Peninsula, the area reached after crossing the Story Bridge from Fortitude Valley.

Being retired at 42 on a parliamentary pension is just too much fun I guess. It’s a shame because I agree, she could absolutely win it.

Yoh An
thanks for that. Doesn’t seem KP Peninsula would change much.

Yeah, KP’s about 8000 people, which isn’t that much but it is handy when looking to equilibrate.

Brisbane does indeed look different to in the Arch Bevis era. Back then it went up into the mid northwest suburbs along the Ferny Grove train line. Now it goes northeast. It’s rotated!

Kate Jones going for Lord Mayor would be very interesting. Certainly a change from Labor’s run of non-government candidates in the last decade:
2008: Greg Rowell, cricketer
2012: Ray Smith, TV exec
2016: Rod Harding, Macquarie manager
2020: Pat Condren, journalist

I guess this isn’t too surprising though. With Qld Labor being so dominant at a state level I don’t think they put that much effort into winning BCC, and Opposition Councillors basically never run for Mayor, because they have to give up their ward to do so.

Labor have selected a strong candidate and while the north east of this electorate is strongly conservative this seat could be a player if there is a general city wide swing to labor in Queensland. Green vote and preferences will be important in this seat as a younger rental demographic is moving to western areas of this seat.

Coalition paying $1.40 to win on Sportsbet, Labor $4.50, Greens $6.50. They don’t always get it right obviously (just look at 2019), but whatever analysis they’ve done suggests a low likelihood of change.

Wilson – Sportsbet, etc, set their odds based on the bets that have been placed so far, not based on some form of “analysis”. So it says that punters so far have favoured the Coalition, not Sportsbet itself. And that’s no surprise – most punters are probably less confident than usual (in part because of covid, which is the big wildcard in Queensland).

Glen, I’d agree, except when that market opened for betting it had the same prices.

Bookmakers also have to act as markets makers to begin with, setting an initial price, which is then adjusted based on what punters have bet on.

Its been reported today in the Courier Mail that Labor is becoming increasing confident of its chances in this seat. It was reported issues of government’s record on climate change, women’s issues and integrity are resonating with voters in this seat. Other reasons such as lack of a prominent Greens presence and absence of a strong “Voices of” independent were suggested as helping Labor be seen as the only viable alternative with voters which would benefit their primary vote. The seat did have a long Labor history before the Liberals won the seat of Brisbane in 2010.

PN, I think the old Brisbane district pre 2010 was located more to the east, and didn’t include the more conservative leaning suburbs of Clayfield, Hendra and Ascot. However it is still a swing district as it covers the inner suburbs and the overlapping state seats (Clayfield and McConnell) are also marginal/swing districts as well.

area East of Breakfast creek(Clayfield etc) which as Yoh An correctly pointed out was added only in 2010 is what give the Libs a chance to win this seat. We need to remember that this was only one of two QLD seats that Labor held in 1996. It will be interesting if this would be Labor held if the pre 2010 boundaries still existed.

If it was printed in the Courier Mail then it must be absolutely true?

if the article was printed in the Courier Mail then it has to be absolutely true? What is happening if even the News Corp press are giving the Labor Party a heads up. Not looking good for Scomo!

Seems like that, unlike Sydney or Melbourne, Brisbane’s inner city seems to be quite the opposite with conservative-leaning voting areas with the exception of West End. Could this be because they are ‘old money’ neighborhoods with an older population, unlike the two largest cities which used to be working-class areas before gentrification?

Good point, Matthew about comparing Brisbane with Sydney and Melbourne. The point i believe is that Brisbane being a smaller metro area the electorates are more mixed. The federal electorate of Adelaide also includes old money areas such as Malvern. Large parts of this electorate are actually more suburban with single family homes and quarter acre blocks like Ashgrove. It is true that Ascot etc are old money and were never gentrified. We dont really see super safe seats in Metro Brisbane like we do in Melbourne or Sydney as there is more class segregation being a bigger city. In the federal electorate of Melbourne it is really only East Melbourne and perhaps Parkville that is old money.

So that means Brisbane has almost no suburbs like Footscray, Northcote, or Brunswick in Melbourne or Newtown, Balmain or Marrickville in Sydney
East Melbourne historically does tend to be a wealthy old-money suburb but even these days they are more green voting than Liberals since they have been densified. For Parkville, it does depend on what parts of the suburbs but on voting on their voting booths they seem to still favor the greens but possibly this could be attributed to higher density neighborhoods nearby significantly outnumbering the wealthy terraces.

Matthew, I am now in Brisbane and I think Milton is similar to Newtown being quite up and coming. The Bowen Hills/Albion area is also like Marrickville, St Peters and Tempe being fairly industrialised.

Apart from those examples, Brisbane doesn’t really have the same type of inner city suburbs as Sydney and Melbourne.

Mathew – Parkville has big houses but they’re often rented out as sharehouses with 5 Green/Labor voting students loving there.

The suburbs around UQ (more in Ryan) seem to have that mix of old money and students. Same for Kelvin Grove (QUT)

The state seat of South Brisbane is the closest you’ll get to an Inner West style progressive stronghold. Otherwise largely agree with the general observations here, the political culture on the north side changes more with street names than postcode. The one exception I’d make is for Hendra and Ascot, which have always been strongly conservative.

Extremely extremely nitpicky point for Yoh An if she cares: Albion’s more like Clayfield and Hamilton than Bowen Hills (traditionally small-l liberal, becoming better for the left) whereas Bowen Hills has basically always leaned left.

Agree Furtive, Brisbane is a ‘small’ city by population standards compared to Sydney and Melbourne, hence all federal districts within the metropolitan area straddle at least two demographic areas.

I see that the federal seat of Griffith is like an amalgamation of the inner west of Sydney (South Bank and West End, which are reflective of places like Balmain) and the more conservative eastern suburbs (Bulimba and Hawthorne which are like Randwick and Coogee)

Awful poll for Labor federally in Qld today, barely any change from last election, which means if the National poll is to be believed, they must be doing very, very well somewhere else. I just can’t see how Labor wins government though unless they do at least ok in Qld, history says they don’t, which means this seat might almost be must win for Labor. I’m hearing it’s the only one they see any chance to picking up in Qld. The ternd is now against them in Longman and Flynn, although I never truly believed they were a chance in Flynn

Of what poll are you talking about, FtB?

@High Street, they are presumably talking about the Roy Morgan poll which has the LNP leading 54.5 – 45.5 in Queensland. The previous poll had the LNP leading 52 – 48. But bear in mind this is still a swing to Labor from the 2019 election, in which the split was 58.5 – 41.5 to the LNP.

Wilson, if that poll result is correct, then the Labor swing is statistically significant (4%, outside 3% margin of error). Feel the Bern is not quite right saying there is barely any change, as that would mean the poll is within the margin of error.

Although there aren’t many highly marginal (sub 3%) LNP seats in Queensland, so maybe a swing of that magnitude will not be enough to flip any Coalition held seats.

If you’re talking about Roy Morgan, I would take their state breakdowns with a grain of salt. They’re both smaller samples with much higher error and not weighed like the overall sample and headline figure (hence the wild swings between the last poll and this one, and reporting 64-36 in Victoria and 60.5-39.5 in SA). Any election where Labor actually was 58-42 would easily take a host of QLD seats with this being the first in line.

Roy Morgan was yesterday yes but today Courier had a couple of seat specific ones:
“The TeleReach poll shows the LNPs primary vote is up in Flynn from 37 per cent to 42 per cent, while Labor has suffered a slight drop in its primary vote from 28.6 to 27 per cent.

In the outer suburban seat of Longman, Labor’s vote dropped from 34.1 per cent in 2019 to 29 per cent, while the LNP slumped slightly from 38.5 to 37 per cent.”

That’s a very bad outlier for Labor in a state they need to improve in in my view. I hope I’m just being glass half empty here but it doesn’t feel like it’s worth celebrating.

I’d take those seat polls with a big grain of salt, like they had ON at high teens first preference in Reid, which is ludicrous.

They might be broadly indicative of a trend towards the LNP in socially conservative seats – which Flynn definitely qualifies as and Longman arguably does too (it had a high ON vote in 2019) – despite a statewide swing to Labor. Or they could be unreliable, as many seat polls are. In any case it’s probably premature for Trevor Evans to be cracking champagne.

Ignore the Morgan poll of 58:42 for Labor as it totally lacks credibility. As much as I loathe the Murdoch media, Newspoll has a proven record, even allowing for 2019. I accept that the coal seats may be out of reach for the ALP, but Newspoll’s Quarterly of a 4.5% swing to Labor has much more credence than Morgan or these seat polls. So, where would the 4.5% swing materialise? I suggest it’s in Brisbane and the burbs. If Brisbane falls, then Ryan won’t be far behind. If it’s in the northern burbs, maybe Dickson and Longman will follow, but the substantial bogan vote in these two makes me doubt it.

I feel a swing to alp in Ryan. Probably Brisbane too.

Thank you for the reassurance FtB 😉

QLD can swing big to Labor without any seat gains… just look at BCC 2020 result.

BJA that all depends on the swing, less than 2% then I can see your argument playing out. But name one occasion in history Labor won less seats proportion to the total number of seats in QLD when they got more than 45% of the TPP in QLD. Some seats are more elastic than others. I personally think this falls before most QLD seats however I am going to have to disagree with others thinking Petrie and Dickson are less likely to fall than Ryan.

I believe at the state election Ryan was close to 50/50 whereas Petrie was close to 60/40 Labor. Yes I know state elections don’t collate with federal elections. But people have to realise Ryan still has it’s traditional Liberal DNA in it. Petrie and Dickson do not and their margins are inflated.

Ryan might be moving away from the coalition but it isn’t just because of demographic changes. It is the coalition moving further to the right alienating voters of Ryan. Don’t be shocked if several seats fall before Ryan in QLD. And Longman falls before this (Brisbane)

Don’t look at seat margins to predict where it will go. Look at it’s history and demographics. It will save you allot of time. Just look at Davenport and Gibson in South Australia and report back. The MP’s that got big swings to them in QLD last time are no way invincible and will lose if the government’s unpopularity keeps up but they still have a campaign to win them back.

Daniel, right now I suspect Brisbane will be the only QLD seat to fall but I find your analysis on Ryan and Petrie interesting, and something worth noting. I just think areas like Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan are likely the areas in QLD where Labor trends should be strongest long term. I believe Longman and Dickson should hold for the LNP due to the more conservative nature of those electorates. Greens a factor in Brisbane but they won’t win this time, nor will they in Griffith. Maybe in 2025 or later.

Out of four EDs roughly coinciding with Ryan, the LNP won Moggill, 54-46, lost Maiwar 44-56 and lost Ferny Grove and Cooper both by more than 40-60. Similarly in Brisbane the LNP only managed to hold Clayfield, historically as blue-ribbon as blue-ribbon gets, by less than 52-48, after the Labor campaign barely tried and the Greens self-immolated. In every other ED overlapping Brisbane – (half of) Stafford, McConnell, the other halves of Ferny Grove and Cooper – they literally lost everything 40-60. The Ryan halves of Ferny Grove and Cooper are more suburban and arguably friendlier to Morrison, and I still think Simmonds at least is the favourite to win in his seat, but it’s still pretty gnarly for him.

Obviously I don’t agree about the outer suburbs in general but I can see Lilley swinging hard to the ALP this year. That’s more to do with Anika Wells putting in elbow grease as the LNP’s campaign there implodes.

BTW what BJA suggests is entirely possible- LNP might suffer a swing all across Brisbane and still lose little, maybe even nothing.

…especially if they deliberately pull manpower out of, say, Lilley and Griffith to sandbag incumbents. In fact I’d bet that’s the plan.