Berowra – Australia 2022

Brooklyn booth looks out of place in this seat, in the sense that it is the only booth held by the ALP.

Bob, i dont know about the demographics of Brooklyn but it reminds of the Bundeena booth in Hughes (previously in Cook). It will be interesting why both these booths are so different.

It is probably fair to say that Brooklyn and Dangar Island have more in common with the Central Coast than with Hornsby. Alternative lifestyle folk and (not necessarily particularly affluent) retirees.

At the next redistribution, Robertson may need to reach down to close to Hornsby so that an extra seat can be inserted somewhere in the Lower Hunter. The railway line would indicate a community of interest – there is a lot of interaction between Hornsby and the Central Coast. Before 1968, Robertson did reach down into the Berowra area – a precedent albeit old.

And the Northern Suburbs of Sydney are well below quota so the abolition of Berowra is quite possible.

I don’t see that redistribution happening, given how big that geographical jump is for Robertson over the Hawkesbury River to cover Brooklyn. What would be more likely is Berowra shifting Westward, along with Mitchell getting smaller and shifting West as well. Don’t forget that there is a whole suite of developments going up from around Marsden Park all along the M7/M2, Up Richmond Road and Up Windsor Road and Old Windsor Road.

Yes, the northern suburbs of Sydney are well below quota so my suggestion is for Warringah to be abolished, then Mackellar to cover the eastern part of the Northern Beaches down to Seaforth, ceding the west and north-west of the Northern Beaches to Berowra and Bradfield. North Sydney would then gain the rest of Neutral Bay and Mosman which would allow Bennelong to move into Lane Cove and the western parts of Bradfield like West Pymble. Mitchell would be aligned along the M2 composed of Castle Hill, Beecroft and Hornsby, which would mean Greenway would lose the Blacktown area to gain the Kellyville area. A new seat could be made in the west covering Blacktown, Westmead and Northmead while Parramatta moves east into Epping and Denistone. Robertson would then cross the Hawkesbury down to Berowra while ceding the northern parts to Dobell.

To create a part north shore part Central Coast seat is a backward step.. such a boundary did exist pre 1969…but this was before a lot of central coast growth. The boundaries of Hume which include Goulburn and Camden in the same seat are equally insane

I’d do something similar Ben, though I understand there is just enough for 26 seats in Sydney, so there should really be no need for a part and parts seat – anywhere.

Different to your idea though, I’d retain Warringah got move it back to largely Warringah, leaving North Sydney Council in North Sydney. I’d effectively abolish Mackellar, taking Bradfield East, or take Mackellar west and move Bradfield to the North, effectively abolishing Berrowa.

Ben
No way Warringtah will ever be abolished. Indigenous name. end of story.
High st
We are in total agreement as we often are. Sorry about (unconsciously ) stealing your thunder. Amusingly i must have followed a similar line of thinking incrementally on my own.
i’D dearly love to see N Sydney abolished or renamed but its a federation seat so very unlikely.
cheers WD

My proposal would see the Northern Beaches split across 3 seats – one entirely in the northern beaches being a narrow strip from Palm Beach to Balgowlah while the western part would be split between Berowra and Bradfield with the Killarney Heights area in Bradfield and the Belrose area in Berowra. North Sydney would consist of Mosman, which would put North Sydney almost exactly within quota.

Berowra would then lose suburbs north of Berowra itself, Hornsby and suburbs along the Pennant Hills rail corridor while extending through Ku-ring-gai Chase to gain Duffy’s Forest, Terrey Hills and Belrose.

* North Sydney would consist of Mosman, which would put North Sydney almost exactly within quota.
This is meant to say North Sydney would consist of Mosman, North Sydney and Willoughby councils which would put North Sydney almost exactly within quota.

One issue that should be faced is that north of the Central Coast, the seats from Shortland up to Richmond are collectively about half a seat short. With the coast and the Great Dividing Range there are not many places for these seats to go. The choice is between having 8 – 10 seats that start out as well above quota – and stay there – or do you try and achieve equity? And one way to do this is for an electorate to span the Hawkesbury. It could be argued that a lot of people commute between Hornsby and the Central Coast and the train line is the joining factor. It is not an ideal solution but is better than Hume now – at least it would not be leapfrogging a major population centre. When the projections come out there may not be an alternative.

I think some of you are overestimating the shortfalls in northern Sydney. Recall that the last state redistribution was able to retain all the north shore seats by redrawing Epping west and Parramatta south. I think we’ll see something similar at the federal redistribution. Abolishing a northern beaches electorate is fanciful. At least one of Warringah or Mackellar will have to expand west but there’ll still be two majority northern beaches seats. Bradfield might need to follow the Pacific Hwy all the way up to Brooklyn (redrawing Robertson south is absurd). Shifting Parramatta south should salvage Berowra. It would just need a new name (or become an anachronism like Kooyong).

In southern Sydney, there’ll be a general shift of seats towards the south west, with Hume likely to lose its Camden end. Indeed, I think we’ll see an amalgamation of Hume and Riverina. That will be offset by a new seat in the upper Hunter (perhaps including Mudgee?) given the ~0.5 quota surplus in the north coast/Hunter region.

I’ve actually experimented with some ideas using a geospatial tool. I tried an idea similar to @Ben’s using data (projected enrolment) from the NSW state redistribution, and this was the result. Essentially North Sydney and Warringah are merged. (I don’t necessarily agree that this is the best approach to the next redistribution, but this map shows approximately how this approach could be realised within numerical constraints.)

I wouldn’t want to see Robertson move into Hornsby LGA. Everything including and closer to the CBD than Hawkesbury, Blue Mountains, Wollondilly, and Sutherland LGAs is close to a integer multiple of the quota, meaning it will be possible for there to be no Sydney-regional hybrid seats.

@David Walsh

The shortfalls in Northern Sydney can hardly be overestimated. The federal Northern Sydney seats are collectively deficient by around half a quota! A comparison to the state redistribution doesn’t make sense because the enrolment deficiencies in Northern Sydney at the state level were much smaller than those at the federal level. In essence, the pre-redistribution state boundaries had accounted for declining enrolment. The same is not true at the federal level.

You can see the pre-redistribution state numbers here (the first spreadsheet) and the federal numbers at the same point in time (March 2020) here.

The latest AEC enrolment figures:

Bennelong -0.87
Berowra -7.86
Bradfield -6.48
Mackellar -3.75
Mitchell +4.37
North Sydney -4.07
Warringah -9.05

Total -27.71

That’s a quarter of a seat under quota, not half. Unless it’s projected to get worse (which is possible), the most likely outcome is Parramatta ceding some of its northern suburbs and retaining all the north shore seats.

David

Your suggestion of an Upper Hunter seat does have merit. One problem that the Commissioners may have is that it has a counter clockwise effect through every single non Sydney seat. That may actually solve lots of problems but the Commissioners are often much more timid in drawings boundaries than they should be.

David and redistributed, I wonder if the best/optimal solution might be redrawing Hunter back to its old configuration, absorbing towns like Scone from New England and then losing its southern end to form a new Newcastle/Lake Macquarie area seat like the old Charlton district. A consequence of this is that Paterson is redrawn to include Dungog and the Forster/Tuncurry area, like its old configuration, and the other North coast seats shuffle northwards.

As I’ve said before Nicholas, I agree with you – its not the best approach. It makes the Bradfield seat absurdly long north to south, spanning very different territory, when there are better community of interest options available

Warringah should span Palm Beach to Seaforth, allowing Berowra to span from Dural to Belrose while not including Hornsby or Brooklyn and Bradfield can span from Gordon to Frenchs Forest.

Another proposal I have for the central coast is for Robertson to push down south to Berowra and is renamed Berowra, then Dobell is renamed Robertson and pushes further south. Shortland could then push south and be renamed to Dobell. Newcastle would then move north and Hunter moves west allowing for a new seat of Shortland to cover part of Lake Macquarie.

I played around with the numbers for my suggestion and made a map to visualise it:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HCrfCmD_9VGGCPMABBrZjc9soIHKv3ru/view?usp=sharing

Essentially:
– Warringah loses everything south of the Spit and the western portion around Killarney Heights to contract. It then gains the parts of Mackellar along the A8 corridor and Barrenjoey Road up to Palm Beach, becoming a seat based on the eastern Northern Beaches
– North Sydney loses Lane Cove Council and Hunters Hill Council. It gains the rest of Willoughby and North Sydney Councils while also gaining Mosman Council.
– Bradfield becomes centred on Ku-ring-gai Council, losing all parts of Hornsby and Willoughby Councils it currently contains. It then gains areas around Killarney Heights and Manly Vale.
– Mackellar loses Forestville to Bradfield, gains a small area around Beacon Hill and loses all coastal areas to the east to Warringah. It then gains the areas around Mount Ku-ring-gai, Arcadia, Galston, Dural, Cherrybrook, Glenhaven, Glenorie, Annangrove, Box Hill and Rouse Hill.
– Berowra becomes a hybrid Central Coast-Sydney seat, losing everything south be Berowra while gaining the Southern Central Coast.
– Bennelong loses the western part while gaining Lane Cove Council and Hunters Hill Council.
– Parramatta is based on Parramatta Council, containing all of the council but Parramatta Ward. This means the seat moves quite far northeast.
– Mitchell is oriented East-West, losing Castle Hill, Parramatta Council and everything north of Kellyville. In exchange it gains Kings Langley, West Pennant Hills, Pennant Hills and Hornsby.
– Greenway loses Kings Langley, Seven Hills and Girraween while gaining part of The Hills including Castle Hill and Kellyville.

redistributed – The regional seats in NSW have been redrawn radically before, particularly the changes that took effect at the 2007 and 2010 elections. Admittedly, the state lost a seat at both those redistributions. I think upheaval is unavoidable given there is a large shortfall in Sydney and a large surplus in the north coast/Hunter region.

Yoh An – That’s the idea, though such a seat would have to extend beyond just Scone, hence the suggestion of Mudgee. (Whether you call this seat or the Lake Macquarie seat Hunter is academic.)

Ben – that’s a map that would make legislators in Florida or Ohio blush.

Agree with you David – Ben your proposed map definitely does not meet community of interest.

There is no way suburbs like Beecroft and Pennant Hills belong with areas like Bella Vista and Kings Langley, they are in completely different council areas and there are no direct transport links.

Also castle hill and Blacktown in the same district – this is more like a gerrymandered map designed to crack Blacktown council and spread out the Labor vote by combining ALP leaning suburbs with strong conservative areas.

“Winged” electorates, for lack of a better word, like your Mackellar, are an awful outcome.

I especially dislike when the AEC tries to conjoin two distinct population groups into a contorted wing shape, where there is no strong transport links.

The worst offender is Wright in QLD. AEC slammed together the Lockey Valley and Scenic Rim despite no major transport link within the electorate between the two. A range is wedged between each of the two “wings” of the electorate. To get from Beaudesert to Gatton for example, you need to leave the electorate and get on the Ipswich motorway and head out towards Toowoomba.

The communities in the Lockyer Valley are serviced mostly by Toowoomba and Ipswich in terms of their local shopping and jobs.

Whereas the Scenic Rim communities have a bit more infrastructure to stand on their own and have stronger links to Brisbane, Logan and the Gold Coast.

QLD observer, there are so called ‘back roads’ linking the Scenic Rim area with Ipswich that involve a long circuitous route around the periphery of Wright district travelling through Boonah.

But agree with your view that Wright tries to combine two disparate communities together that don’t have much community of interest.

This thread is bringing me no end of joy.

Ben – having lived in northern Sydney for years, your redistributed North Sydney and Bennelong make excellent sense for communities of interest and the other electorates are doing some wild, wild things.

@Josh Under my map I would live in the redistributed North Sydney and I feel that Willoughby, North Sydney and Mosman would go well together while Ryde, Lane Cove and Hunters Hill would go well in Bennelong.

Ben, I found your inner suburban districts (North Sydney and Bennelong) do have strong community of interest connections. It is only the outer suburban districts (Mitchell, Greenway and Mackellar) that are quite odd in terms of combining areas that don’t have strong connections with each other (the Hills District including Castle Hill and Baulkham Hills is generally considered distinct from other northern suburbs around Cherrybrook and Pennant Hills, even though there are some connections in terms of transport between them)

At various stages, it would make some sense for St Ives especially, and those parts of Killara, Lindfield and Roseville east of the Arterial Road and Archbold Road to be in Mackellar so that it becomes more of a Mona Vale Road / Middle Harbour electorate. Berowra would be abolished and Bradfield extend from the Hawkesbury down the North Shore as far as it needs to. North Sydney would extend up and Bennelong take Hunters Hill (as a minimum) and possibly parts of Lane Cove. Mitchell would extend east and Parramatta north and east.

The other alternative would be for Warringah to become a ‘Middle Harbour’ seat and take in Cammeray, Northbridge and Castle Cove with the Roseville and Spit bridges as book ends and take in Mosman, Manly and Frenchs Forest. That would keep Mackellar to the Northern Beaches.

Agree with you Yoh An that there are a few “back roads” that connect Scenic Rim to Ipswich as well as the Lockyer Valley. I also definitely wouldn’t suggest that Scenic Rim aren’t also serviced by Ipswich as well. I have more comments that I would like to add regarding Wright and redistribution in SE QLD in general, but I might move over to the Wright page to continue my discussion.

@High Street

I included Parramatta in there, but I take your point that some of the numbers appear to be moving back in the right direction. I agree that the committee should be able to easily avoid abolishing a seat in Northern Sydney if that is their wish (though of course there will be major changes).

@High Street

The transport links are there at least, particularly the Pacific Highway and North Shore line. Perhaps I am biased in that I am a former resident of Cherrybrook – in my view there is virtually no community of interest between Cherrybrook and the suburbs north of Hornsby, and the configuration in question addresses this.

@Ben

I have lived all over Northern and North West Sydney at various times in my life (specifically in Hornsby, The Hills, Parramatta, and Blacktown LGAs), and with all due respect, there’s a lot wrong with your suggestion. I like what you’ve done with the North Shore, but the rest… no. I currently live in the western end of your Mackellar division. The Northern Beaches is another planet to me. Even when I was living in Cherrybrook (also in your Mackellar), I would have said the same!

Whoops, that first paragraph is meant to be addressed to @David Walsh.

Yoh An,

Pennant Hills itself gravitates towards Hornsby as “service centre” whereas most of the sprawling areas of West Pennant Hills and most of Cherrybrook gravitate more to Castle Hill.

More general points from someone who grew up in the Hornsby area and returned in the last 15-20 years.

Whilst much of the semi-rural west of this seat is part of Hornsby LGA; its really only the very eastern fringe around Galston that gravitates towards Hornsby.

Hornsby itself was split in two between Berowra and Bradfield after the 2007 election. Whilst its very true that suburbs like Wahroonga, much of Turramurra DO gravitate towards Hornsby services-wise; the F3 is still a rather clear defining boundary as regards demographics.

Brooklyn (and the old Danger Island booth) is certainly the Green “fortress” of the seat but most of the booths along the corridor north of Hornsby are actually more Lib leaning than fortresses. The booths in Hornsby itself (both Berowra and shared booths with Bradfield) are actually quite swingy with quite strong Lab and Grn votes and in good years, its far from unknown for Lab to carry them (and sometimes the northern Cowan & Asquith booths) 2PP.

Ideally, I’d prefer to see Bradfield retreat back south of the F3 and Hornsby back into the one seat. Undoubtedly this would require a knock-on effect with Mackellar as some have suggested although I’m more onside with the southern (east of Arterial/Archbold) than St Ives per se ….. maybe St Ives Chase.

Fair point wombat, Cherrybrook does have a fairly good connection to Castle Hill now with the metro line. IN the future redistribution Berowra could reunite Hornsby and the lower north shore, losing Cherrybrook to Mitchell (Mitchell in turn would have to lose North Rocks and Winston Hills to Parramatta). Bradfield would then move towards the Northern Beaches, becoming a mixed north shore-Northern beaches district like the state seat of Davidson.

*correction should be UPPER north shore not lower

Demographically there can be no discussion of Berowra or Bradfield moving south or east. The voters simply don’t and won’t exist. My call is for Berowra to be abolished.

No Labor candidate for Berowra yet!

@Bob a candidate has been selected so I’ve been told, forget the name though (a young bloke for memory). Just because the ALP website hasn’t updated with details, doesn’t mean there was no-one selected. Anyways, Nominations are now closed and all will be revealed tomorrow at 12pm with the declaration of candidates followed closely by the ballot draw.

Ballot Draw Result:
1. Nicholas Samios (LDP)
2. Tania Salitra (Greens)
3. Rhannon Bosma (PHON?)
4. Julian Leeser (Liberal)
5. Brendan Michael Clarke (Fusion)
6. Benson Kochinski (???)
7. David James Louis (???)
8. Roger Woodward (???)
9. Christopher Martinic (Coldplay, sorry, I mean UAP)
10. Ben Caswell (IND)

Wait… where is the Labor candidate?

@Nicholas @Hawkeye_au – Benson is the ALP Candidate. The other two I’ve been informed are independents with Roger Woodward running as an independent last time in Berowra at the 2019 election.

Apologies * there are two independents (Woodward and Caswell) and Louie (Not Louis) is running for the AFP (Australian Federation Party)

Pennant Hills resident – I have already voted for my good mate Mr Leeser. Most satisfying, though numbers 1-9 don’t matter. My usual Greens Last and Labor straight after Liberal and random for everyone else adventure.

I don’t understand all the desire to abolish Berowra, it isn’t that much below quota. And it has an excellent member.

Nice bob, we seem to have scored out with julian leeser, he seems to be one of the good ones, probably too honest to get a cabinet position, Berowra shouldn’t be abolished, the population will most likely grow a fair bit with northconnex there now, and it is well suited to its current demographic. We aren’t the north shore, or the northern beaches, or western sydney.

Julian Leeser is almost pathologically honest and consistent, and I have known him for three decades. I do hope he gets a front bench gig, but he hasn’t been so favoured to date.

“The other alternative would be for Warringah to become a ‘Middle Harbour’ seat and take in Cammeray, Northbridge and Castle Cove with the Roseville and Spit bridges as book ends and take in Mosman, Manly and Frenchs Forest. That would keep Mackellar to the Northern Beaches. Redistributed.” This makes sense.

Mackellar is predicted to go through some development which may bring it up to full quota. There are attempts for housing developments around Ingleside and some conjecture that MV will become a new DY. To the dismay of the people of Mackellar.

“The Northern Beaches is another planet to me. Nicolas Weston.” Haha, yes, and Mackellar citizens don’t want to be saddled and sullied with any landmass that doesn’t have water on at least two sides.

I’m a former resident of Beecroft and Cherrybrook, and it is shocking to me how soft the Liberal vote has become across the Berowra electorate. Booths in Asquith, Berowra Heights, and Normanhurst have flipped Labor, while Cheltenham, Pennant Hills, and Thornleigh are virtually tied. Cherrybrook and West Pennants Hills are usually very strong Liberal territory but voted with only a single-digit margin for the Liberals this time. Beecroft has become marginal. Only the five-acre block district is what has kept this seat in the very safe category. There’s plenty of other seats demonstrating how catastrophic this election was for the Liberals, but even Berowra shows it too.