Bennelong – Australia 2022

If Keneally wants a lower house seat she should run here, having already done so in 2017. We all know she wont, an actual contest won’t do for a career politician.

On the note of John Alexander, surely he’s looking at retirement, what’s his personal vote like? I see this as a seat Labor can expect to win on a good night, and fortunate timing of a retiring star player may play in their hands.

For now, a Liberal hold

Honestly, I think Labor only won this seat due to John Howard being unpopular locally & all the stars seemed to aline together for them in 2007. This seat may be marginal in Labor high tides but I don’t expect it to change hands on these boundaries.

This seat puzzles me….Howard lost in 2007 I would have thought with John Howard not contesting labor. S position would have been better in 2010 and they held it…. But I was wrong. Alexander has done quite well to hold with reasonable margin. But as people point out he must be due to retire soon. This seat is Ryde based and I think mainly in Ryde council with a excellent alp candidate in the right circumstances they could win

I know this seat very well and I was not thrilled at all about Keneally being parachuted in here.

MiCK
Alexander has a high flyer girlfriend much younger Deborah Chadwick. We lads in our sixties understand a brutal reality. If we have a GF Like that we work as long we can, &/or until we have PERMISSION not to !.
Johno is fit & wants to keep said GF. He will go on, no retirement.

John Alexander has advised he won’t contest next election. The margin is 6.9%. Graham Richardson said a couple of days ago he believes Labor will gain a few seats in NSW at the next federal election. You would think that Bennelong may be out of striking distance. But with Alexander now not contesting some Liberals do have fears the seat could come into play.

The Liberal Party will call for candidates to contest the key Sydney seat of Bennelong amid fears it could lose the seat after former tennis champion John Alexander announced he would leave politics at the federal election.

Potential contenders for Liberal Party selection to contest the seat include tech executive and former political adviser Gisele Kapterian and City of Sydney councillor Craig Chung.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bennelong-race-thrown-open-after-john-alexander-decides-to-leave-politics-20211112-p598id.html

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bennelong-race-thrown-open-after-john-alexander-decides-to-leave-politics-20211112-p598id.html

John Alexander is resigning at the next election! This makes the seat more interesting, and potentially gives a ‘Voices’ Independent more hope as they don’t have to compete against an incumbent.

Gladys please run, We need you

Liberal hold, will most likely be marginal like it use to be. I could only see this seat changing hands if Labor ran I excellent campaign with a popular candidate.

While Maxine won, it was at a point where most people thought the Howard Gov was on its way out. I remember people saying at the time they’d save him going to a by-election.

A Labor win is possible but everything would have to go right for them. I don’t think Bennelong is close to the hinge seat to win government the way it was in 2007.

That said, if the Libs put up a bad candidate through a messy preselection, perhaps there’s a chance.

A lot will be determined following the Liberal Party Pre-selection for this seat. A decent enough candidate (preferably with backing from JA) would see the Liberal Party likely to hold this seat comfortably. As PJ said, a bad candidate puts this seat in play.

Hawkeye is wrong. Labor gain if Morrison doesn’t recover in the polls.

You have to understand Alexander had a huge personal vote here and the seat is not safe liberal like it was before the redistribution in the early 2000’s If you go back to when Howard was first elected in 1974 I believe the seat was practically North Sydney.

Climate change is a huge issue in these Small-L seats and an independent could be also a threat if the left-unify.

It will be marginal whoever wins and the Liberals would probably take this back in 2025 should they lose it this time. It’s one of those seats that only flip when the libs are doing poorly like 2007 and Labor will win a landslide in 2022 it is getting ridiculous people suggesting the coalition will win like they want them to win. We get you support the coalition you don’t need to remind us.

Didn’t Alexander want to retire at the last election but was swayed to run again?

Daniel Daniel Daniel
you have so much to learn about how the world works. JA is with a very wealthy high achieving much younger partner. He simply needed not to be a retiree until she would, or could accept it. Of course he wasn’t going to give up being a Fed MP. Obviously they have talked.

I see no reason that JA had a “huge” rather than healthy personal vote. He certainly didn’t do welt the bi-election, or 2019.
CC is not a big issue in a middle class seat like this . COST of LIVING is the ONLY game in town. It is definitely NOT small liberal it’s very socially conservative. Your obsession with assuming that there is some great idealogical divide in the libs is quite tiresome ,. There are just some loud LINO’s around ATM.
LIB HOLD regardless of who runs

Hawkeye is being conservative Albo has no chance of cutting through here. Ordinary Australians can respect intelligence even if they don’t like the bloke, which is why BS will end up having done better

Remember, Labor only won this in 2007 because everything worked in their favour: helpful redistribution; long-time incumbent on the way out; targeted campaign with a good candidate etc.

All in all, I’d be pretty surprised if Bennelong fell. Expect a margin sub 5% though.

Daniel
Bennelong is not a small l Liberal seat – it narrowly vote no on marriage equality. There may be some people for whom climate change is a big issue but agree with WD that it won’t be a key issue – unlike seats further east. The big unknown in Bennelong is the big Asian population – it is not a monolith as it is spread across mandarin, cantonese and korean language communities. It is the Libs to lose if they get the candidate choice wrong. The Labor hardheads might be wary of Bennelong as they have spent a lot of money here over the years but except in 2007 have never won.

I’m not always in synch with WD (being a LINO myself) but on this one he’s on the money. Sorry Daniel. While the next candidate for Bennelong will be a moderate (strong control of the branches) the area is quite agnostic on issues like CC. Compared to Warringah, NS and Wentworth I suspect it doesn’t rate in the top 2 issues. That having g been said, it remains on the outside edge of risk if Scomos NSW vote tanks any further. Personally I just don’t see it falling – 2007 was quite a unique set of circumstances.

The unknown is Alexander ‘s personal vote… if 5% or more there is a potential close contest. The lean of this seat is liberal as is shown by electoral history…but I can hope

Redistributed
Yep correct about the asian vote. I sense (FWIW) that they are very conservative lots’ of christians & getting more so each election. which is why i give Labor no chance at all .
SO
sorry moderate. Scomo’s vote won’t impact here.

Mick
after the by election & 2019 i sense FWIW that JA’s personal vote was eroded/ diluted by say half = 2% remaining & as such just won’t be influential, so this won’t be helpful

happy new year to ALL

Just to add to why Labor won in 2007, I believe the Chinese demographic latched on to Rudd because he spoke Chinese (something many of them value, especially given many 2nd gen Chinese Australians do not retain their mother tongue), and turned on Labor the moment he got turfed and in turn found a star candidate in JA – its not really a surprise that so many people from the sporting world get lured into politics, as for voters, it can speak to aspiration and achieving your goals/dreams.

But considering JA has been there for so long, I believe a lot of the swing vote back then is now permanent Liberal, even if much of it would also be JA’s personal vote.

Wow Daniel. You tried to have a crack at me and 6 people came on and blasted you out for being wrong. This is why you are constantly targeted for criticism. You post the most ridiculously wrong posts and expect to get away with it.

Considering that this federal seat mostly covers the state seats of Ryde and Epping, the latter blue-ribbon and the former solid Liberal, you have ignores the fact that the biggest demographic growth in the area are socially conservative Asians. Once upon a time Labor voters (due to immigration issues), they are slowly swinging towards the Liberal Party.

I think everyone here knows that while I lean Liberal, I post here with a balanced view. Seriously Daniel, you need to check your attitude here because it is becoming unwanted.

Hawkeye, I think Daniel is not too familiar with the political mood and trends in Sydney and NSW generally, that is why he makes incorrect assumptions about vote patterns in these seats.

I have made a few errors when assessing some Queensland seats, and some Brisbane locals have corrected me (notably Furtive Lawngnome) as I am still familiarising myself with the different political landscape of Queensland and greater Brisbane compared to the Sydney area.

Agree with you and the other posters that Bennelong is not like the other Liberal seats in that it is multicultural and not as ‘affluent’, therefore it will not be vulnerable to a strong independent or Green challenge compared to seats like North Sydney and Mackellar.

Hawkeye_au
Nah i want Daniel to keep going, he is so representative of a ( generational ?) POV that his presence & participation is important.

BESIDES we have a duty…..! i mean i just had to explain the facts of life (about keeping a top sort !!!!). And people reckon I’m a misogynist. I love women, just not (as Latham puts it so well) the “hairy underarm brigade”!! Women need a sense of humour (at least around me they do!).

I don’t agree about the slowly swinging bit. Rather i feel the ALP has rapidly alienated asian voters with anti aspirational, & variously disrespectful positions (to them), & policies.

You An
Daniel had the misfortune to be part of a generation that had fawning uncritical parents & was probably never smacked !. Therefore he hasn’t learned yet to ask questions when he really doesn’t know (whatever).
Us older folk learned humility the hard way !
hope that helps
cheers wd

Winediamond, agree with your view that Asian voters support the economic policies of the Coalition/Liberal Party. However the Liberal Party should tone down some of their views on foreign affairs, particularly in relation to Mainland China as many Asian voters (including myself) see that Australia should at least acknowledge the viewpoint of Chinese President Xi Jinping, even if we don’t agree with it, rather than outright dismiss his argument entirely.

I agree with Yoh An, I think Daniel posts in good faith, but is probably younger and new to politics, and certain people are eager to jump down his throat when he gets things wrong

As far as 07 Bennelong goes, I’m just extrapolating what I know about the Chinese community in Brisbane, so many they aren’t comparable and I’m risking looking ignorant myself, but a lot of them really didn’t like Howard personally and thought he was racist and/or too willing to pander to Pauline Hanson and co.

Sorry FL but I’ll strongly disagree with you on that and it is because when he is wrong (which is often), it is ridiculously wrong and simultaneously belligerent. Until he aces up his attitude here, he will get the same short fuse from me that he deserves.

It is one thing to have differing opinions or methodologies. That is what we are here to discuss. But Daniel engages in such a belligerent manner that IMO, he deserves to be called out for his comments.

You An
Oooohh that IS a toughie !!!.A very very fine line !!. Your point is very well made, even if it is largely by inference. Well done. i think they (the/any govt) don’t have much of choice on being “strong on China” politically at least. Obviously they can’t be seen as racist, or even antagonistic in any way. What do you see as their “tone” ?

I see Xi Jinping as a dictator & bully & my instinct is to confront him without aggression, but with unflinching resolution, determination.& force if necessary. However if that can’t be done, & done effectively then we shouldn’t even bother trying. I don’t know what his “view point” is, but i’m interested. What do you see as “his argument”?

However CHina’s treatment of Tibet, Hong Kong Taiwan & so on i instinctively can’t help but resile from. So over to you. How do you see the situation ? What do do you think ought to be done, or not ?. I’m very happy to be completely wrong on everything.

cheers wd
PS One of my godsons is married to a Vietnamese (girl) & has told me that she has been subjected to lots of racist comments & told to “go home” etc over the last 2years. I hope you haven’t had to endure such disgraceful behaviour though it won’t surprise me if you have. IF so i apologise unreservedly, on behalf of all THINKING Australians.

Winediamond, there is a common belief amongst those of Asian background of ‘saving face’. This view is that you should not directly criticise someone for their views. Instead, you ‘casually’ engage them and sort of acknowledge each other. This is especially true when dealing with people senior than you.

Dutton et al in the Liberal Party do not practice this view as they directly go on the attack saying ‘China’s views are wrong’. Whilst this is acceptable in a western perspective, Chinese officials view this as being disrespectful.

In other words, if two people have differing opinions you kind of say ‘well we agree to disagree on this topic’, and dont raise the matter any further.

I try and argue the case not attack the person who puts forward a counter view.Politics is indeed an inexact “science”.on poll bludger there are what I consider frame wars ..alp versus greens nearly every other day.

Agree with you Mick Quinlivan, in the political environment it is alright to argue a counter point but if you stray too far and begin to engage in personal attacks then you will not be seen in a good light.

How the hell is this seat small L Liberal? A small L Liberal seat wouldn’t vote No on the same sex marriage survey…

Ryan, Bennelong is not a small l liberal seat. Daniel in an earlier post assumed it was and others pointed out that he was wrong.

You An
I guess i understand that i don’t understand. How on earth does one go about talking about things if even to express a view is insulting ? What do you do when China says openly that our troops killed civilians in Afiganistan, & showed ( doctored)footage, engaged in trade warfare, & we can’t mention the Virus. etc ?. What would we think of our politicians if they didn’t call it out ?

Personally the way to inflame me is
1/ make me feel unheard
2/ ignore what i’m saying
3 make me fell i don’t even exist (by doing the above, repeatedly)
4/ keep going & see what happens !
cheers wd

WD, i think we need to understand that China was subject to a century of humiliation by Western powers and Japan. It was subject to unequal treaties and extraterritoriality. For example, Hong Kong was always part of China until it was stolen by Britain because China refused to have opium sold on its streets. The old Summer Palace was destroyed by Britain. After the First World War Germany’s interests in China (Shandong) was not returned to China rather it was handed to Japan. It was hypocritical of Western countries to pass laws to bar Chinese immigration when Western arrived in China uninvited and did more harm than good. We also need to remember that for example in the case of Hong Kong Britain did not introduce democracy and some see the 1997 handover as an example of decolonisation. I am not defending Xi but i think we need to understand how history shapes the present.

Nimalan
you are absolutely right about all the history no question. I agree very much about “how history shapes the present.”. What very much concerns me is the present, & even more the future.
China seeks to lead the world, although they would probably typify this differently. Their defensiveness manifests as pretty naked aggression . I actually don’t care about their “story” history, good intentions or anything else. If they want to to respected, & admired then they need to take proper responsibility for their actions, communication & the effects of all such things , just like every other country, & person. The world is a community just like any other.

They also need to keep the agreements they sign.

I agree with Nimalan and that the behaviour of China today is sort of to try and ‘retaliate’ against past injustices. I see this view as wrong, as the old Asian tradition of ‘saving face’ has many downfalls.

For example, in Korea there were some plane crashes that occurred because junior pilots were too afraid to speak up when their senior crewmembers did something wrong.

You An
I basically agree with you both. I would add that China’s obsessive desire for self protection, & overdeveloped sense of outside threat, creates it’s impetus for what appears as aggression. i don’t know how this can evolve. Either way it’s an uncomfortable challenge for us

As a small-l liberal who has lived in the area for many years, I am almost insulted that someone would describe Bennelong as “small-l liberal”.

I hope Daniel is paying attention to this and learns from this experience.

Hawkeye_au
What was there to learn, as you see it ?

The Lib pre-selection here will be first or second week of February. I’d expect a reasonable candidate, if selected, to maintain the 55/45 split from the by-election.

Nicholas, Agree with you this certainly not a small l liberal seat more a middle class ethnic seat. I feel Chisholm is the Melbourne equivalent which is why when people say Chisholm should be an easy Labor gain i think not so fast.

100% @Nimalan, I happen to have lived in Chisholm too, and the similarities were very striking to me. Not sure why my family had such an affinity to living in these areas. (Not complaining though!)

What I mean by ”Small L” is fiscally/economically moderate. And to suggest the Asian community is more conservative is absolutely baloney. the Asian community is overwhelmingly left leaning (although they are traditional typically when it comes to SSM which explains the no vote here) (Similar to Blaxland and Chifley) and who would dare to call those ”conservative seats”

Social issues are not the only issues in the world and they factor little into how people vote nowadays here in a country like Australia because the marriage equality question was settled in 2017, What I’m saying is economically city people tend to be lean to the left economically or are centrist. You will never see an overwhelming majority of people here support lower taxes except for those higher income workers.

The average family income here is higher than nationwide average according to the bludger but I can give plenty of examples of seats with higher income that vote Labor so I doubt that will make a difference.

But if you look in the United States for example these demographics would be VERY favourable to the left (Democrats) and the Asian vote goes overwhelmingly blue. And as Morrison is turning out to be an Australian Trump I can easily see allot of voters switching sides at this election, The reason they didn’t previous elections was because Labor was not popular and had Bill Shorten and *cough* the Murdoch press (who I still blame for last elections result).

Daniel, I would argue Australian politics is nowhere near the same as that in the US. For example, only a handful of Coalition MPs are considered hard right and the LNP today is not behaving in the same manner as the Republicans in the USA. The LNP is focused more on the economic issues and tries to stay away from the hot button ‘social’ issues.

By avoiding a strong focus on social issues, the LNP in Australia is able to secure more of the minority (especially Asian) vote that they would otherwise lose in the US.

In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the other seats you mention (Blaxland and Chifley) soon become marginal as many minority voters are more concerned about economic/’bread and butter’ issues rather than social justice topics which the modern Labor party seems more concerned about.

At the 2020 presidential election, Asian Americans supported Biden 69-28 over Trump, although that may be slightly exaggerated given Trump’s visible anti-China racism, however some other Asian Americans (Vietnamese especially) appreciated this stance.

“What I mean by ”Small L” is fiscally/economically moderate. And to suggest the Asian community is more conservative is absolutely baloney. the Asian community is overwhelmingly left leaning”

I can tell you this is categorically untrue in Bennelong. I have many Asian friends in Bennelong who tell me about their parents pressuring them to own an investment property when they’re hardly into their 20s. During high school, I frequently witnessed my classmates imitate and mock their parents – and a common theme was an obsession with money.