Barton – Australia 2022

ALP 9.4%

Incumbent MP
Linda Burney, since 2016. Previously state member for Canterbury, 2003-2016.

Geography
Parts of the St George and inner west districts of Sydney. Barton covers a majority of the Rockdale council area and parts of Hurstville, Kogarah, Canterbury and Marrickville council areas. The main suburbs include Rockdale, Bexley, Kogarah, Kingsgrove, Brighton-le-Sands, Tempe and parts of Marrickville, Dulwich Hill, Hurstville, Beverly Hills and Carlton.

History
Barton was created for the 1922 election, and has always covered parts of the St George district. The seat was traditionally a marginal seat between the ALP and the major conservative party. Barton has leant towards Labor in recent years, with the Liberal Party winning just once in the last four decades.

The seat was originally a notionally Nationalist seat, but was won in 1922 by ALP candidate Frederick McDonald, who defeated Hector Lamond, the sitting Nationalist Member for Illawarra since 1917. The seat of Illawarra had been abolished before the 1922 election.

McDonald lost to Nationalist candidate Thomas Ley at the 1925 election by a bare 60 votes. McDonald challenged the result in court, before he disappeared in mysterious circumstances. It is believed that Ley was responsible for McDonald’s presumed murder.

Ley, who had been a state MP for Hurstville 1917-20 and St George 1920-25, held the seat for one term before losing to ALP candidate James Tully in 1928. Ley went on to move back to England and in 1945 was convicted of killing a barman who he suspected of having an affair with his mistress, and ended up spending the rest of his life in an insane asylum. While it was never proven, he was suspected in the death of McDonald and Hyman Goldstein, who was a rival of Ley’s and state member for Coogee when he fell to his death in 1927.

Tully held the seat for the ALP with a massive margin in 1929. In 1931 Tully was challenged by John Eldridge, the sitting member for the neighbouring seat of Martin. Eldridge had been an ALP member but had joined Jack Lang’s breakaway party. Both Tully and Eldridge lost to UAP candidate Albert Lane.

Lane was reelected in 1934 and 1937, but never by comfortable margins. In 1940, he was defeated by former High Court judge H.V. Evatt, who retired from the judiciary at the age of 46 to run for federal politics. He was elected with a massive majority, which he maintained at the 1943 and 1946 elections.

Evatt served as a minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, including as Minister for External Affairs. He played a significant role in the creation of the United Nations and served as President of the UN General Assembly in 1948-9.

Evatt held the seat at the 1949 election, when the Liberal Party defeated the Chifley Labor government, and Evatt became Leader of the Opposition. Evatt held Barton by slim margins in 1949, 1951, 1954 and 1955 elections, and moved to the safer seat of Hunter at the 1958 election, which was his last as Labor leader, retiring in 1960.

ALP candidate Leonard Reynolds won Barton in 1958, never holding it by large margins. He lost the seat to Liberal candidate William Arthur in 1966, but won it back in 1969. Reynolds held the seat until his retirement in 1975.

In 1975 the seat was won by James Bradfield (LIB), who held the seat for the entirety of the Fraser government, losing to ALP candidate Gary Punch in 1983.

Punch joined the Hawke ministry in 1988 before resigning from Cabinet in 1989 at protest over decisions about Sydney Airport. He returned to the ministry after the 1993 election, when he increased his margin to 9.4%.

Punch retired in 1996, and was succeeded by Robert McClelland. McClelland held Barton for the next seventeen years, serving as a frontbencher from 1998 to 2012.

McClelland retired in 2013, and Liberal candidate Nickolas Varvaris won the seat in a very tight contest.

The redistribution prior to the 2016 election pulled Barton north into more Labor-friendly areas, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Linda Burney, a Labor state MP and deputy leader of the state party, defeated Varvaris at the 2016 election. Burney was re-elected in 2019.

Candidates

Assessment
Barton has become a safe Labor seat since the last redistribution pulled the electorate into the inner west.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Linda Burney Labor 44,227 49.2 +1.4
Pramej Shrestha Liberal 30,109 33.5 -1.9
Connor Parissis Greens 8,123 9.0 +0.2
Phillip Pollard One Nation 3,288 3.7 +3.7
Sonny Susilo Christian Democratic Party 2,103 2.3 -1.9
Ben Tung Liu United Australia Party 2,057 2.3 +2.3
Informal 9,473 9.5 +1.2

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Linda Burney Labor 53,418 59.4 +1.1
Pramej Shrestha Liberal 36,489 40.6 -1.1

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts. The north covers booths in the Canterbury and Marrickville council area, while the remainder is split into east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.3% in the west to 65.9% in the north.

The primary vote for the Greens ranged from 6.3% in the west to 11.7% in the north.

Voter group GRN prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
West 6.3 55.3 20,038 22.3
North 11.7 65.9 17,338 19.3
East 8.2 61.0 16,679 18.6
Pre-poll 8.5 57.2 24,972 27.8
Other votes 12.3 59.2 10,880 12.1

Election results in Barton at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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27 COMMENTS

  1. This seat might have been interesting in 2019 and now if it still had its pre-2016 boundaries. But this will be an easy Labor hold.

  2. This seat might have been interesting in 2019, and perhaps now if it still had its pre-2016 boundaries. But it doesn’t so an easy Labor hold.

  3. You could probably blame the NSW government for this more than the AEC but this seat crosses 5 LGA’s now, I mean my god.

  4. Yeah I’m not a fan of the way this seat is configured either. The northern end around Earlwood and Tempe is just so different from the southern end; surely the AEC could find some way to make the M5 the boundary?

  5. Wreathy and furtive, the situation should hopefully be resolved soon, at least by 2025 as nsw is due for a redistribution by 2023 I believe.

  6. I agree the area North of the Cooks river Tempe etc would fit better in Grayndler. However, i do feel that Earlwood while being in Canterbury-Bankstown council fits well with the St George district. It is much more middle class compared to Lakemba, Campsie etc. Also it has a large Greek community like surrounding suburbs in the St George district. I hope Cook loses the part of the St George District to Barton and Barton returns to the 2010 boundaries.

  9. Very odd if there wasn’t a Lib contesting, considering Nick Varvaris was member less than 10 years ago

  11. Should the voice fail which seems more likely than not, Will Burney resign as minister? She probably won’t resign as an MP and instead probably retire at the next election because she isn’t exactly young either. I’m looking forward to her and the PM’s memoirs when they start blaming eachother and others for why this despicable voice to parliament failed.

    She will likely go down in history as one of the worst indigenous affairs ministers if the voice fails, but even if it succeeds and we see that it isn’t delivering for indigenous Australians and it just turns out to be another woke leftist idea designed to give 1 group of people more power than the rest. She can’t even answer if the voice will have power over the RBA and cost of living measures which affect the rest of us!!!

    Why should we wait until after the vote, what if it’s something we hate, how do we get rid of it? We’d have to vote the LNP to get rid of it, which is something I’d hate to do but would do it to get rid of a bad policy such as this.

    I may not like the coalition but Jacinta Nampijinpa Price is the most effective and powerful spokesperson for indigenous affairs this country has had and would be grateful if she become the minister.

    As for the political complexity of this seat, This won’t be abolished as it’s named after the 1st PM, but it could shift perhaps towards it’s older boundaries and it becomes more marginal? If it shifts towards the St.Georges it could become marginal but I doubt the coalition could pick it up unless they ran Scott Yung which could give Burney or any ALP candidate a run for their money.

    Either way the margin is likely at its peak. I don’t see this going above 20% margin

  12. No one knows what the new boundaries will be.. but going back to older boundaries still makes it a Labor seat. The voice is not something evil it is a Chanel of consultation. Woke is a meaningless word usually used by those who are a fair bit right of centre. I disagree with your assessments of both ladies mentioned. Linda bad Jacinta good in my opinion does not ring true. The thing is a loss of the voice referendum would ensure the coaliti0n could not win the next election as the independent held seats would not be won by the lnp.

  13. Agree Mick, I read some commentary from legal experts, and they indicate the Voice will just be an advisory body with no powers to force the government to produce/draft any particular legislation. They will only issue recommendations as to what sort of laws/legislation the government should pass.

    In a sense, it does duplicate similar powers that local Aboriginal groups already hold but it would empower them by having all organisations able to come together to deliberate on policies.

  14. The Voice is an advisory body only, and it has no power other than to give the government of the day advice, which can be completely ignored. If you’re wondering whether it will have power over the RBA or anything else, the answer is simple: no. It can’t give any groupmore power than the rest, because it has no power. That’s why people like Lidia Thorpe are against it.

    And no, I don’t see Burney resigning if the referendum fails. The blame would not lie on her shoulders alone.

  15. Curious to see but looking at the Preselection Updates table, 2 current state MLCs, Mark Buttigieg and Housing Minister Rose Jackson are rumoured to be contesting Labor preselection in Barton for the next election. Plus Shaoquett Moselmane, a former Labor MLC.

    Could be an interesting race with Liberal prospects improved through the southward shift in the redistribution, plus the loss of Linda Burney’s personal vote. But I predict a decent Labor retain.

  16. Moselmane might be too controversial or gaffe-prone and Albanese might not want to risk having him in a high-stakes federal election where they’re in the defensive.

    I think that because Burney is from the left faction, a fellow left faction member would then step up e.g. Rose Jackson, to replace her. I think Mark Buttigieg is from the right faction.

  17. A read of his Wikipedia article tells me that Shaoquett Moselmane is a BDS supporter who has links to Chinese businessmen who have links to the CCP and money laundering. We can cross his name out, he’s too controversial.

    Interestingly Rose Jackson is actually pro-cannabis so if elected I assume she would support a Greens bill to legalise it for recreational usage on the federal level.

    Mark Buttigieg and Rose Jackson aren’t controversial so they would be the frontrunners.

    Labor hold.

  18. Rose Jackson would be a good choice. Given her high profile as a minister and her competence, as well as being from the same faction as Burney she would be a good fit for the electorate. On the new boundaries despite the decrease in margin it’s unlikely to go anywhere but Labor unless if they’re electorally obliviated out of existence.

  19. From what I remember Moselmane has actually declared he is running for preselection. But as @NP explained, he would turn into a controversy magnet enough to where the Liberals could win.

    I don’t think Buttigieg has anything serious to lose, he’s a parliamentary secretary (which is considerable) but is low-profile. What might help him is that he is a local to the area (Southern Sydney/St George). Ran for Barton preselection in 2016 and was also a Sutherland Shire councillor from 2008-2012.

    Jackson would by far be the most competent. She’s high-profile as a minister, but that status could be up for grabs if she goes federal. She might just become ‘another Labor MP’, despite it being clear she has talent. State and federal politics are very diverse.

  20. https://x.com/NSWPolAlerts/status/1847533809811468424 per NSW Politics Alerts/Daily Telegraph the rumoured candidates are:

    Moselmane (Right)
    Jackson (Left)
    Buttigieg (R)
    Sam Crosby (R)
    Linda Scott (L)
    Emma Maiden (L)

    Supposedly there’s a bit of an impasse on account of Barton being a traditional right faction seat, but Albo wants someone from his faction to succeed Burney. Burney was from the left but did a deal with Moselmane back in 2015 to get Barton in exchange for him getting into the NSW upper house.

    I’ve heard rumblings that Crosby is the most likely candidate on the Right (who interestingly is married to the Left’s Jackson). He ran for Reid in 2019, isn’t currently in the parliament, and doesn’t have Moselmane’s colourful history, putting it mildly.

    I don’t think Jackson will ditch her very high-profile gig as state housing minister just 18 months in to run for Barton either, think that’s a bit of clickbait.

  22. Much as I wouldn’t want Moselmane to win the seat (he’d make Shanghai Sam Dastyari look moderate in terms of China arse-licking), this seat is both safe enough and has a large enough Chinese Australian population to the point where I couldn’t see him failing to win it, even if though there would likely be a swing against him.

  23. @ SCart,
    Do you think Moselmane support of the BDS on Israel could provide an opening for the Libs here. There is a Muslim community here but not big enough like Watson, Blaxland, Calwell etc.

  24. In addition to my comments above the Hard Left areas north of the Cooks River as been removed and some good Liberal areas around Kogarah Bay, Beverley Park have been added.

  25. There is a significant Muslim population in different parts of Barton but I don’t think it is in the top 5 in metro Sydney. I believe this seat has the largest or second-largest ethnic Chinese population in the country.

    His foreign policy stances and his record as a state politician will be a thorn in the side for federal Labor.

  26. Sorry, scratch that comment about Chinese-Australians. I was meant to say the suburb of Hurstville not the seat of Barton.

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