Banks – Australia 2022

If there is any seat in Sydney that could be in danger of falling to Labor it will be this one due to the circumstances with the sitting members absence from parliament and the community, haven’t heard anything since he was out on indefinite leave but the question is why wouldn’t he retire if something is going on in his family’s person life?

I wish him well during these circumstances however I believe the people of Banks like anyone else wants a full time working MP. If Labor is doing poorly don’t expect them to win here but expect a lower average swing to the Liberals if they are gaining ground nationwide

Demographics being what they are here, I don’t see Labor having a hope in hell here. Maybe a swing towards them, but I wouldn’t even be sure of that.

Wreathy of Sydney
Agree with you 100% . Coleman’s personal problems aside Labor offer a CUB, middle class seat like this absolutely nothing. All these people care about is …..cost of living, & all things related to that issue. In 2019 Labor got caned, it will happen again. Banks is like the fulcrum of labor’s disconnect from the voters they need to reach.
As for a swing if you left out th absent MP factor, & do you quantify that ?. Other things being equal you would have to expect a 2%+ swing to the Libs.

David Coleman back working full time for over 4 months. His fundraising is impressive and the demographics continue to strongly trend his way. I don’t even see a swing to ALP to be honest.

what is CUB? wd

Cashed up Bogan

I never. Picked the swing last election to Mr Coleman think the margin is roughly 6%. The seat is roughly the state electorates of East Hills and Oatley although slightly stronger for the Libs.It would be difficult but not impossible for Labor to win. however Mr Coleman must remain the favourite. The Revesby suburbs can improve for Labor also the next redistribution may well increase the alp vote by say 2% as the Banks Barton Cook boundary is strange

WD- the CUBs are exactly the kind of Liberal voters who find Scomo appealing. Its why Coleman holds this in a canter.

The interesting phenomenon developing is that seats like Banks and Hughes and maybe even Lindsay may become stronger seats than Bradfield/Wentworth, unless a Turnbull Lib is the leader. The fact that the ALP chose Cameron Murphy/Chris Gambian twice in this part of Sydney demonstrates that the don’t “get” the demographic.

David Coleman’s time off from the seat will have no impact on the result it’s got a growing number of so called aspirational voters which would probably lead to a slight swing in the seat for him with the overall swing the government will probably get in NSW.

Moderate
The Trend of blue ribbon Lib seats moved to the ALP only continues while climate change alarmism is a thing. Whether that’s another election or 3, who knows ? When energy security, in addition to exploding cost , supplants it as an issue, who can know ?. However what is clear is that our whole energy grid is dangerously, & chronically unstable, & there is no real plan to reinforce it. Gas stations more renewables, & batteries, won;’t cut it.
Peoples tolerance for this is easily tested. Ask any plumber how long your average punter can cope with cold showers !?
cheers WD

Moderate:
What odds that North Sydney is more marginal after the next election than Banks and even Lindsay? It already is closer than Hughes.

Key demographic here is the Asian – increasingly Liberal – vote, rather than CUBs. Growing massively around Hurstville, Blakehurst and Connells Point.

Of course the Asian population in Hurstville has always been signficant – when I was in primary school the school was 80-90% Asian. This was the early 2000’s, too. But equally they’ve gone from being solidly Labor circa mid 2000’s to Liberal leaning in the post-Rudd years. Which is probably why the seat has become more Liberal over time.

Meanwhile while I can see the East Hills area having newly molded CUB’s (see how East Hills the state seat has trended in the last few elections) the Georges River Council area has long been pretty wealthy – though obviously the demographic here probably differs to that in the North Shore.

High Street – Id say this one or the next. In the 2007 election Mike Bailey ran Joe Hockey to (from memory) to 55/45. So that’s the low floor in NS.
Id expect Coleman to be roughly 57/43 after the election. In time, as the price creep from the Georges River moves north, it’ll be a 60/40 seat, similar to the present margin in Hughes.

Liberal hold, the days of labor getting this seat are a distant memory.

Mick
Give it up wrt Banks. Labor are no chance here.Even Revesby moved away.

The next redistribution may push Banks eastwards out of the East Hills area and to the shoreline of Botany Bay. It’s what will most likely eventuate if the commissioners decide to eliminate the anomaly of Cook straddling the George’s River.

Nicholas Weston
The AEC were pretty clear that they needed to cross the Georges river for numbers, & their preferred place was the Captain Cook bridge. They have done all other options.
Unless they change their ideas wrt the Illawarra seats, where will the impetus come from? I sense they will be pretty lazy with Banks & just move north to Newbridge rd ( Milperra =3000voters) & take a couple of thousand more in the east (from Cook)

How have assessments on this seat changed (if it all) over the past month? Should Coleman be worried now?

Australia is slowly becoming like the US, in that our political divide is becoming based on relative social conservatism rather than wealth. I reckon over time Australia’s increasingly denser inner cities will swing towards the progressive side, whereas white dominated outer suburban districts that do not contain large pockets of poverty will be the Coalition’s bread and butter.

“White-dominated” and “outer suburban” are fast becoming mutually exclusive in Australia.

Nicholas, not here in Banks. Highly multicultural and although not as outer suburban as Cook, still a fair ways (demographically and otherwise) from the city.

I said “mutually exclusive”, doesn’t that concur with my observation?

Quite right Nicholas. My apologies; my reply was meant to be directed to AI.

All the same, I would be extremely surprised if Labor even came close here, Sydney Covid troubles notwithstanding.

This seat will probably stay Liberal for a while given the rapidly gentrifying demographics.

The seat is more Liberal than the state now as a whole and we have seen the same trend at a state level in East Hills and Oatley. The Waterfront suburbs reflect Sydney’s political geography. In a good year Labor can improve their vote further inland but it will be swamped by the strength of the liberal vote along the Georges River. It will likely only be won back if either the Liberals are very unpopular at the Federal level or if a popular Labor government is running for re-election.

Labor has preselected former diplomat, political staffer and adviser in the UK’s “Nudge Unit” Zhi Soon as their candidate its been reported.

I don’t see this the Liberal Party losing this seat. Coleman is fairly entrenched within the seat now and the Eastern End of the seat has gotten strong for the Liberal Party over the last few years. Not only that but there is now a fairly strong grouping of Liberal MP’s at the State Level to help defend this seat.
Likely Liberal Hold

Just drove through the seat, around the Padstow region. I think I counted about 10 Coleman Corflutes in front of houses but no Labor Corflutes. Normally you would still get the odd corflute popping up but, given the lack of corflutes, you really do start to get the feeling that the shift in voting in the area could be permanent.

Soon is a dud candidate and despite what polling suggests, Reid is another one trending blue long term.
Bigger picture I think in Sydney is the progressive vote shifting eastward whilst the conservative vote moving west

What about in the East Hills part of the electorate? Anything down on the ground? Could be predictive for the state seat next year although I’d give Labor the slight favourite to take East Hills next year

@daniel – padstow/revesby is front and center of East Hills and this has been trending Liberal despite the redistribution continually forcing it into Labor Territory for Bankstown. But then you have the strengthening of liberal-friendly Milperra as well.

I also know the State MP personally, whose parents live two doors down from my in-laws in Padstow Heights. They are quietly confident of retaining the seat.

I was in the electorate yesterday. Only saw one sign for the Labor candidate and that was in Hurstville. Comapred to last time, it definitely feels like Labor have given up notwithstanding Coleman’s long absence (last year was it?).

Why is Wendy Lindsay taking her seat for granted by saying she is confident? History would be against her holding the seat for a 4th term for the Liberals. It has trended towards the party correct, however it still very much is marginal and she cannot afford practically any swing against her.

Nobody should ”presume” they will win. nobody has a mortgage on a seat. and neither does the sitting member for Banks either. If Labor indeed win government and especially at the state level next year (Will be aided if Morrison wins again) Unless of course Wendy Lindsay is assuming there will be a federal Labor government which could potentially help her.

Zhi Soon who lives in the East Hills state seat could be using this election to build his name recognition in order to challenge Wendy Lindsay in the state election. It would take a very large swing to unseat David Coleman here.

Why has Banks shifted so heavily to LNP?

Only swung heavily last time. 4,% 6 % is a big margin though.
Banks was a safe alp.seat for a .long time and the Revesby suburbs.
About half the seat split 60/40.labors way. Now boundary changes have added strong lib areas and the Revesby suburbs are marginal..there are few strong Labor suburbs in the seat

Honestly Daniel, I wonder if there is anything in your head. I said quietly confident. That’s not taking it for granted. That’s going “we can retain the seat.” Seriously mate, grow up.

As for the shifts, this seat used to take more of Bansktown but ended up moving to an East-West Seat. Labor should be thankful Milperra is in Blaxland. Otherwise, Banks would be a fair safe Liberal Seat.

@ Bob, the proximity to water has meant the area especially the waterfront suburbs has become more desirable over time. This can be seen at a state level in the electorates of Oatley and East Hills. Also Canada Bay LGA (Reid) and the state electorate of Drummoyone show a similar trend. In Victoria i would say state electorate of Carrum is showing a similar trend long term but in Carrum it has been more gradual.

I see that Hawkeye is at his dismissive best.I f you don’t agree with him you must be wrong and he says it in such a ” nice” way.

Can’t imagine the Liberals are in any real trouble here. This is the kind of area where Morrison has strong appeal, reflected by the large swing to the Liberals in 2019. Reid, Robertson, North Sydney, and likely even Bennelong are stronger chances for the ALP than Banks. Liberal hold, 54-46 or so.

I only save my dismissive behaviour for those that deserve to be dismissed for presenting asinine and uneducated remarks. Yourself included.

Keep walking champ, we will carry on without you.

Hawkeye
Daniel and I have had our scape in the past. However the fact that I dissagree with him does not mean he has an empty head. Whilst acknowledging Ben’s authority I feel that your comment is neither informative nor in keeping with the relatively civil nature of this site.

@andrew Jackson – appreciate the response. Normally I would agree with it and ace up. Unfortunately, the problem we have with Daniel and John t is that they repeatedly make these asinine comments and don’t listen to what people are saying. It is really getting on my nerves. Everyone else is capable of having those civil discussions but these two, IMO, are incapable of doing so.

I gave a valid point that the Lindsay team for east Hills, which covers half this seat, are quietly confident. Daniel immediately jumps on and says she is taking it for granted. I don’t understand what kind of grammatical gymnastics Daniel had to pull to reach that but he should join the Olympics Team if he is that flexible.

I agree with the salient points made by both Daniel and Andrew. Banks may well be retained by the Liberals but my reading of Daniel’s point is that in the current political climate in NSW it is a marginal seat. He doesn’t need to grow up or have his opinion and character judged as being empty headed,uneducated or asinine. Andrew makes the point that comments on this site need to be kept civil. That is why I have found the personal comments made by Hawkeye to be in very poor taste and am calling him out on it. We are all entitled to our own opinions.

Also agree with John T, Andrew and Daniel. Whilst Banks is now considered a Liberal trending or leaning seat, it could be at risk from a large statewide or national swing, at least falling back into the marginal category and potentially being a nail biter on election night. This was the case with a few of these safe seats at the SA election, Morialta and Heysen being former safe Liberal seats that were eventually retained by extremely narrow 1-2% margins.

The 2018 US midterm also saw many safe conservative seats become marginal or even falling to Democrats, simply because of the magnitude of the leftward swing.

Banks really 2 parts East Hills and Greater Hurstville…. at the last council election.labor won the revesby ward that is more liberal and also included Milperra.A bigger swing in the Revesby area makes for a closer contest

Its tricky, if voters base choice on local issues then LNP might retain seat as David is a reasonable local representative.

If voters base choice on federal issues, then as we have the most incompetent, incapable and corrupt federal government in the history of our nation… we might see a big enough swing from the sensible centre to make a difference.

Exactly John,

What I meant to say if she shouldn’t be complacent in her position as while she could win. She could very well lose. At least both federal leaders aren’t being complacent as they are claiming themselves as underdogs. You should always run a campaign like you are 50 points behind. Not in front. Because you do not know what the voters will do until election night.

The fact is we simply do not know what this area will do until election night and I am happy to prove people wrong on this (On election night) I believe this will remain very marginal in the distant future. I currently predict a 4% swing to Labor here based on polls which wouldn’t be enough to flip the seat but the campaign is young, anything can still happen.

Hawkeye, please knock off the personal insults. You can disagree with Daniel while being civil.