Aston – Australia 2022

LIB 10.1%

Incumbent MP
Alan Tudge, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Aston’s boundaries align with the Knox local government area. Suburbs include Bayswater, Boronia, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Wantirna and Rowville.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Aston was first created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has tended to be a marginal seat, although the seat has been consistently held by the Liberal Party for the last two decades.

Aston was first won in 1984 by ALP candidate John Saunderson, who had previously been elected to Deakin at the 1983 election. Saunderson held on with a smaller margin in 1987 before losing with a 7% swing at the 1990 election.

The seat was won in 1990 by Peter Nugent (LIB). Nugent was known as a moderate Liberal who supported human rights issues. He was reelected with a slim margin in 1993 and pushed his margin out to almost 6% in 1996, and was re-elected again in 1998. Nugent died in April 2001 of a heart attack, triggering the Aston by-election.

The Howard government was not performing strongly in the first half of 2001, having seen disastrous results in state elections in Queensland and Western Australia and the loss of the blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan in another federal by-election.

The Liberal Party’s candidate, Chris Pearce, managed to hold on with 50.6% of the vote, limiting the anti-Liberal swing to 3.7%, which was seen as a strong result for the government, and the beginning of the turnaround which saw the Howard government returned at the 2001 election.

Pearce was reelected with just over 56% in 2001, and pushed his margin to over 63% in 2004, the largest victory margin in Aston’s history. Pearce was again re-elected in 2007, although his margin was cut to 5%.

In 2010, Pearce retired and the Liberal Party’s Alan Tudge won the seat with a reduced margin. Tudge has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

Assessment
Aston is a safe Liberal seat.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Tudge Liberal 54,744 54.7 +5.2
Kadira Pethiyagoda Labor 29,839 29.8 -1.2
Asher Cookson Greens 8,867 8.9 -0.1
Matthew Sirianni-Duffy United Australia Party 3,611 3.6 +3.6
Anna Kennedy Democratic Labour Party 3,029 3.0 +3.0
Informal 3,829 3.7 -0.5

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Tudge Liberal 60,180 60.1 +2.7
Kadira Pethiyagoda Labor 39,910 39.9 -2.7

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Aston have been divided into four parts: central, north-east, north-west and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.2% in the north-east to 63.1% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 7.0 63.1 12,816 12.8
North-West 9.2 57.0 12,439 12.4
Central 9.4 56.8 12,170 12.2
North-East 13.2 51.2 9,751 9.7
Pre-poll 7.7 62.9 39,644 39.6
Other votes 10.3 61.5 13,270 13.3

Election results in Aston at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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134 COMMENTS

  1. Tudge signs popping up all over the place now (not in peoples front gardens or fences but on roadsides). They are almost all defaced almost immediately. Some have had ‘Scum’ graffitied on top, others have used stronger obscenities and references to his infidelity and the allegations against him. There was definitely nothing like this last time around. I expect there to be a decent swing against him but not enough to lose the seat.

    This was all to the north of Burwood Hwy through Ferntree Gully, Boronia, Wantirna and The Basin. Don’t know if it’s also happening in the southern end.

  2. Tudge has really messed up here, this seat should not even be discussed about having big swings against them here. I am expecting the ALP the gain The Basin, Boronia, Bayswater & Ferntree Gully booths.

  3. If all his signs are being. Defaced
    .then they only serve to remind people who not to vote for. This seat is a bit.like Bennelong… a liberal inclined middle class seat which can swing
    Wonder what the betting market pays for an alp win?

  4. I’m a Liberal, him and Barnaby Joyce are the only two Coalition incumbents who I wouldn’t mind for them to lose their seat. Adultery has absolutely no place in politics.

  5. 1.22 LIB
    4.00 ALP

    Those are the current odds which I believe are fair. last time around I believe the ALP was at 10.00 or so but that was 2 years before the scandal broke. ALP will win this if they win 90 seats or so but that is incredibly unlikely to happen barring a coalition campaign disaster.

    La Trobe,Deakin,Chisholm,Higgins and Casey are the 5 seats the ALP could gain in Victoria on current polling. Flinders and Goldstein are possible IND wins.

    Kooyong,Aston,Menzies and Monash would only fall out of Liberal hands if things got REALLY bad for the coalition.

  9. It is very possible that Labor will gain the booths in Bayswater, Boronia, FTG and Basin. But for Labor to have any chance here they will need to win the Scoresby/Knoxfield booths like they in 2010 (like Bob said this would have been Labor won in 2010 on the current boundaries). However, two points on caution. A lot of the best Labor areas in Knox were in La Trobe, a competitive seat, which in 2010 had a lot of focus and campaigning unlikely to receive anywhere there the same level of attention in 2022. Also some areas such as Rowville/Wantirna South based on demographic trends (for reasons already mentioned above) are stronger for the Libs than in 2010.

  11. Quote from Alan Tudge in The Australian tomorrow that Daniel Andrews is ‘on the nose’ in outer Melbourne , like Knox. Coming from the man who is too afraid to show his face in public and whose signs are all being defaced at a much higher rate than any other MP.
    If Tudge wins it will be in spite of his personality. He is held in very low regard by the electorate and the only reason people would be voting for him is because they don’t want a Labor victory.

  12. Bob
    I have always thought that a defaced sign is more effective than a clean sign. The Defacement shows up that the opposition are shits. Occasionally a humorous defacement may do some good for the defacer but it is very rare. I remember one old activist who used to deface this own signs because he thought the defaced sign did more good than bad to his own cause.

  13. Andrew, that is probably true when you have cleanskin candidates but in Tudge’s case the defacements probably just remind people of Tudge’s appalling behaviour.

  14. I would never do so but if I would deface a Tudge sign it would have a ‘speech bubble’ which would read ‘I have just used $500,000 OF YOUR MONEY to save my backside!!’.

  15. Mary Doyle, tell me crisply which policies are your priority. I have lost faith in Mr Tudge and keenly want you to win, but I need to see what you believe and will work hard for. Otherwise the minor candidates will wedge you out.

  16. Tudge is a disgrace. 500k down the drain to pay for the sins of this dodgy hypocrite. Wake up Aston, this guy is the architect of his own demise. Let him fall on his own sword and move on.

  17. This will at the very least be a marginal seat after the election. A lot of anger against Tudge. Don’t know if it will be enough to turf him out but the seat is certainly much more likely to fall than seats with smaller margins like Menzies or Monash. Could be a big shock on election night, I sure hope it is.

  18. There is a lot of anger here which I’ve never seen or felt here before, I would tip the LNP to hold here but I’m expecting an above average swing here.

  19. Regardless of party, why would any decent person vote for someone like Tudge? I find it amazing that people would endorse his actions by voting for him either directly or indirectly.

  20. I think if it wasn’t in the Herald Sun or 3AW most of the pensioners out in Ferntree Gully aren’t aware of the ins and outs of Tudge’s staff shenanigans and payouts etc.

  21. @Expat I live in Ferntree Gully and have been speaking to many voters and can assure you the pensioners out here are well aware of what has happened. Labor will easily win every booth in Ferntree Gully this time. Labor will need to make in roads in the southern part of Knox around Rowville, Scoresby and Lysterfield to stand a chance. Big ask, but never say never.

  22. @Adam

    Thanks for that insight – I’m just going by my elderly extended family members up there. They live on a steady diet of Murdoch and Channel 7 and seem pretty oblivious to it all! But it’s a sample size of 2, and they’d vote Liberal no matter what anyway.

    I did notice last time I was in FTG, that the Tudge signs often had “scum” sprayed over them, whilst the other parties’ corflutes hadn’t been graffitied. So someone clearly doesn’t like him.

    Do you reckon it’s enough yo unseat him though?

  24. If there is a sizeable swing against Tudge and it becomes a marginal seat (3% or less), might be good for our electorate – we will be able to share in some of the ‘pork’ next time!

  25. I believe many in the electorate would vote against Tudge if the other candidates had a higher profile and were more visible and accessible.
    Unfortunately they all seem to be mia.
    It seems Aston is not important enough to the other parties to bother fielding good candidates

  26. This is another “safe” seat where Liberals are spending big money on FB ads. Liberals are spending more money here than in Deakin. Labor conversely are not spending in Aston at all. Suspect many comments on this thread are true, that the Liberals are really on the nose in Aston.

  27. Hmm, my parents live here and they say the campaign has been pretty dead, not much visible going on at all.

    If the big groundswell that some are commenting on here is really happening, it doesn’t seem like they are seeing it at the moment…..

  28. I think people often mistake signs as being more important than they are and thay they indicate a contest. Of that was the case Palmer would be winning lots of seats.

  29. From what I heard the LNP don’t seem to be in any trouble (I’m well aware thats contradicting what I said before, but I did have this info beforehand), still think there will be a swing against them here but not as much as I initially thought.

  30. A vote for Tudge is saying its okay to spend taxpayers money even though apparently ‘he did nothing wrong’. Or is Scomo so arrogant and smug that he thinks its a no lose situation. How many times has this sort of thing happened in the past that we just don’t know about. How do they allocate ‘payouts’ in their budget. I bet they (Tudge, Scomo, or any politician) wouldn’t be so quick to put their hand in their own pocket. I actually don’t care if he had an affair (it happens!) or has been exonerated from any abuse claims (very interesting!), to be honest, but have the guts to walk away and say I f*&^ed up. And if they think its okay to use taxpayers money for such things, then see you later. I would have normally voted Liberal in this electorate, but I’m sorry I can’t bring myself to do it.

  31. As expected, Tudge got a right whack here, with the Bayswater/Boronia/FTG booths turning back to red. It’s another sign of how this seat has trended that the Liberals still got home here.

    Interesting what happens with Tudge….if they feel he’s damaged goods, the Libs would be well placed to get rid of him and use this seat for someone they see as having leadership ambitions, since it looks like it will withstand all swings going forward.

  32. The swing here was quite aggressive but no surprise as Tudge really messed up, the liberals should have replaced him before the election to dull the swing

  33. Now a more marginal seat again. I predicted a 5% swing but a 7%+ swing was not really unexpected given all the question marks around Tudge and the payout. Rowville and Wantirna South probably saved him in the end!

  35. If Labor had given this seat ANY resources they would have won it. If future redistributions push this either north or east it could be lost to Labor when there is a strong swing. If it needs to expand outside of Knox it would likely be into Bayswater North, Heathmont etc

  36. Adam,
    The electorate will not cross the creek as it makes a nice straight forward boundary, otherwise it makes it too confusing.

  37. Aston will need to expand and expanding north to Canterbury Road is a possibility. Aston previous extended beyond Dandenong Creek into Vermont.

  38. Aston in the 80’s use to include Heathmont & Ringwood. It would make more sense to put the rest of Lysterfield in the electorate & Lysterfield South in the electorate

  40. I’d submit the most logical expansion for Aston (if needed) was into Lysterfield and/or the lower mountains.

    Would seem more logical than pushing across Dandenong Creek.

  41. Expanding in to the Yarra Ranges portion of Lysterfield would do nothing to increase enrolment, almost no one lives there. Expanding into Upwey, Tecoma, Belgrave would probably make Aston a marginal Labor seat and make Casey safe for the Liberals again.
    It would be madness to cross into Lysterfield South, it does not share a community of interest with Lysterfield at all, it is basically an extension of Narre Warren North.

  42. i have always wished there was a Lysterfield South booth if it were to exist it will be such an outlier in Bruce. It will be interesting to analyse. From a demographic perspective i would say Lysterfield South is more similar to the Knox suburbs than to the majority of the suburbs in Bruce.

  43. I would really like to see Dandenong suburbs such as Upper Ferntree Gully, The Basin & Sassafras removed from Aston & put into Casey.

  44. I agree with Nimalan,
    Lysterfield South has similar demographics to the Knox suburbs then the rest of Bruce with even Narre Warren North fitting better here.

  45. Lysterfield South may have similar demographics but Knox is a contiguous suburban area. Lysterfield South is separated by the huge Churchill Park and Lysterfield Lake Park which form a big barrier between the eastern suburbs and southeastern suburbs. Lysterfield South definitely belongs in Bruce because people living there shop and probably send their kids to school in the Casey area, mostly around Endeavour Hills.

    Upwey, Tecoma, Belgrave are contiguous with Knox and share Burwood Hwy and Belgrave railway line as links. It would fit well in Aston.

  46. Ultimately, where Aston expands into will not be determined by arguments of where it should ideally expand into, rather it will be determined by where it is able to expand into. There are many constraining factors of much higher precedence elsewhere in eastern Melbourne that will dictate how boundaries are redrawn.

  47. Labor really should have put effort here as Tudge was vulnerable, it feels like a wasted opportunity.

  48. @ Labor has performed better here on these boundaries than in 2007, last time that Labor gained Government 3.1% margin TPP for Libs versus 2.8% in 2022. I note on the current boundaries Labor would have won in 2010 (a high water mark in Victoria). However, a couple of points to note when comparing the 2007 and 2022, In 2007 the demographics were more favourable to Labor than in 2022 for reasons already mentioned earlier in the thread. However, in 2022 there was controversy with the sitting member which was not the case in 2007. More importantly there was different campaigning decisions. In 2007, a lot of the more parts of Knox which are more favourable to Labor were in La Trobe such as Boronia, Upper FTG, The Basin etc and would have seen a strong Labor campaign as it was a competitive seat. KR and JG visited Boronia etc in 2007 and 2010 something that did not occur in 2022 and Labor put zero effort in all of Knox. If Labor actually campaigned i think they would have won the Scoresby booth (lost by 13 votes) , Mountain Gate PS booth (lost by 7 votes) and Kent Park PS (lost by 62 votes). Part of the result is therefore different campaigning decisions.

  49. This seat was a missed opportunity for Labor, along with Deakin and Menzies. If they actually had put some effort instead of zero effort in these seats, it would be feasible for Labor to pick up all three of them. In terms of 2025, I doubt Labor would put too much effort here since the demographics here are the kind that is favouring the rightward trend of the Libs especially under the Dutton leadership and Alan Tudge might either be gone then or the controversy will have died down. Deakin and Menzies on the other hand, I’d expect some very strong campaigning by Labor since they just missed out on these seats by very tiny margins of <1% and would need to gain seats to retain their narrow majority.

  50. Interesting to look at 2021 Census results. Aston is now 14.1% Chinese ancestry more than double state (6.6%) and National 5.5%. Comparing it to Deakin, is actually slightly less at 13.0% However, in Deakin, Maroondah LGA is much less at 8%. The percentage of people who speak another language at home is also slightly greater than the state average at 31.4%. The percentage of Chinese ancestry is many suburbs such as Wantirna South, Wantirna and Scoresby-Knoxfield now exceeds 20%. It will be interesting if there is a further swing to Labor in 2025 due to these reasons even if the Alan Tudge controversy fades by then.

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