Aston – Australia 2022

LIB 10.1%

Incumbent MP
Alan Tudge, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Aston’s boundaries align with the Knox local government area. Suburbs include Bayswater, Boronia, Knoxfield, Scoresby, Wantirna and Rowville.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Aston was first created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984, and has tended to be a marginal seat, although the seat has been consistently held by the Liberal Party for the last two decades.

Aston was first won in 1984 by ALP candidate John Saunderson, who had previously been elected to Deakin at the 1983 election. Saunderson held on with a smaller margin in 1987 before losing with a 7% swing at the 1990 election.

The seat was won in 1990 by Peter Nugent (LIB). Nugent was known as a moderate Liberal who supported human rights issues. He was reelected with a slim margin in 1993 and pushed his margin out to almost 6% in 1996, and was re-elected again in 1998. Nugent died in April 2001 of a heart attack, triggering the Aston by-election.

The Howard government was not performing strongly in the first half of 2001, having seen disastrous results in state elections in Queensland and Western Australia and the loss of the blue-ribbon Brisbane seat of Ryan in another federal by-election.

The Liberal Party’s candidate, Chris Pearce, managed to hold on with 50.6% of the vote, limiting the anti-Liberal swing to 3.7%, which was seen as a strong result for the government, and the beginning of the turnaround which saw the Howard government returned at the 2001 election.

Pearce was reelected with just over 56% in 2001, and pushed his margin to over 63% in 2004, the largest victory margin in Aston’s history. Pearce was again re-elected in 2007, although his margin was cut to 5%.

In 2010, Pearce retired and the Liberal Party’s Alan Tudge won the seat with a reduced margin. Tudge has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

Assessment
Aston is a safe Liberal seat.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Tudge Liberal 54,744 54.7 +5.2
Kadira Pethiyagoda Labor 29,839 29.8 -1.2
Asher Cookson Greens 8,867 8.9 -0.1
Matthew Sirianni-Duffy United Australia Party 3,611 3.6 +3.6
Anna Kennedy Democratic Labour Party 3,029 3.0 +3.0
Informal 3,829 3.7 -0.5

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alan Tudge Liberal 60,180 60.1 +2.7
Kadira Pethiyagoda Labor 39,910 39.9 -2.7

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Aston have been divided into four parts: central, north-east, north-west and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.2% in the north-east to 63.1% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 7.0 63.1 12,816 12.8
North-West 9.2 57.0 12,439 12.4
Central 9.4 56.8 12,170 12.2
North-East 13.2 51.2 9,751 9.7
Pre-poll 7.7 62.9 39,644 39.6
Other votes 10.3 61.5 13,270 13.3

Election results in Aston at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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134 COMMENTS

  1. @Nimalan I think the Rowville, Wantirna South area also has a large south Asian population. You’re right about the decent sized Chinese population been a worry for the Libs after the last election. It’s interesting also that Boronia, which believe is probably the whitest part, or one of the whitest parts of Aston is where Labor performs best.

  2. Boronia/Bayswater are the most working class and poorest areas in the seat which is why Labor does relatively well there. These areas are very Christian as well as socially conservative meaning Alan Tudge’s adultery won’t be too popular in such areas which explains the larger than expected swing here. I’d expect the Libs to improve in Boronia and Bayswater in 2025 especially since Dutton would be relatively appealing there at the expense of Wantirna and Wantirna South which have significant growth in the Chinese Australian population.

  3. @ North East, correct there is a large South Asian community in Wantirna South and Rowville especially Sri Lankan (Knox is the LGA with the 4th largest Sri Lankan community). I have many relatives and family friends in those two suburbs. An Indian community centre was also recently opened in Rowville, although the suburbs along Belgrave line does not have a significant South Asian community.

  4. I would say that Wantirna South, Scoresby, and even Rowville to a lesser extent are very demographically similar to Glen Waverley but on a smaller scale. I guess the large Chinese and Sri Lankan, as well as significant Malaysian and Indian communities started in Glen Waverley and have spread out here. This is similar to how the Afghan, Sudanese communities etc have spread from Dandenong through to Hallam, Narre Warren, Cranbourne.

    Ferntree Gully, Boronia, The Basin and Upper Ferntree Gully are very much in the foothills of the Dandenongs, which for whatever reason doesn’t seem to appeal to migrant communities as much.

  5. Perhaps the traditional suburbs with the large Chinese communities in suburbs like Box Hill, Doncaster and Glen Waverley are becoming increasingly too expensive and out of reach for many Chinese Australians so they instead flock to nearby suburbs like Wantirna South.

  6. @Adam, I notice that for Chinese/ Malaysian (most of them are ethnic Chinese and speak Chinese) and even some South Asian immigrants that move to areas that are whiter and have cheaper property values (areas like you said Wantirna South) than heavy Chinese areas (areas like Glen Waverley) they tend to be those on lower-income (but their income and education are still higher than the national average in most cases due to white-collar) as I said due to High Property Values in GW.
    For South Asian/ African/ Afghan immigrants, it is quite opposite as once they become richer (such as having a stable job), they move out of the working-class areas (like Dandenong and Doveton) and into areas that have a better reputation, bigger homes (either buy or rent), and tends to be whiter (areas like Narre Warren and Cranbourne).

    I believe that Melbournes Eastern Middle Ring (Northern Boroondara, All of Whitehorse, Most of Monash, Western Half of Knox, and Urban parts of Manningham) has become Melbourne Chinese Ethnoburbia or East Asian Belt similar to North West Sydney, San Gabriel Valley in Los Angeles, and North Eastern Toronto

  7. I grew up in Wantirna South. I think the key difference maybe is that the Wantirna area is much more “suburban” than Glen Waverley.

    GW has a train line, which has encouraged higher density development around the station and shopping centre, so perhaps attracts a more socially mixed demographic. Wantirna doesn’t have as much high-rise development (apart from a few developments around Knox City), so perhaps the demographic and outlook is more in common with Latrobe or Casey further out, even if it is more ethnically diverse.

  8. @Mark, the reputation of public schools is a factor of settlement. GW secondary has one of the highest average of academic performance for Victorian Public Schools and the nearby high schools also in GW (Brentwood and Highvale) is also significantly above the state average. GW also has a cluster of high performing Primary Schools explaining the popularity of GW especially among Asian immigrants.
    The schools in Knox and the rest of the outer east on the other hand tends to have below average performing schools (with a few exceptions like Templeton PS) so even many middle class white families there avoid going to their schools and go to private school instead

  9. More bad news for the LNP with Tudges payout which will not sit well with the electors here. The LNP desperately need to get rid of him before they lose here, this electorate really should not be marginal but Tudge has really messed up.

  10. The liberals may end up with a by-election here courtesy of federal icac..in the present climate they don’t want a by-election anywhere. Last election Tudge tricked the voters. Laid low and hoped this worked but not again. If the liberals had an alternate candidate they may do better

  11. Labor would have won this seat based on the results at the state election. The 4.1% margin to Labor in Bayswater and 4.2% margin to Liberals in Rowville cancel each other out, and based on the 5 booths in Monbulk that lie within Knox, Labor’s margin in the eastern part of Knox is around 10% which would put Labor over the line. This is the sort of area that was supposed to be the new Liberal heartland in Victoria but Labor could win it next timr with the right candidate.

  12. Aston was safe Liberal federally during the early/mid 2000s when state Labor was winning (or extremely close) in all the overlapping state seats.

    It’s literally only marginal due to Tudge making an ass of himself. With a better candidate, I see no reason for the Liberals to not take this back to a solid margin again.

  13. It makes sense that there would have been a lot of “state Labor, federal Liberal” voters in this area back in the day given it was a mortgage belt.

  14. All good points raised. Just a few of my thoughts
    1. Totally agree with Mark’s point about Aston in early/mid 2000s and corresponding state seats
    2. Important to remember that at the 2010 Federal election on these current boundaries of Aston (same as Knox LGA). Labor narrowly won as they were seeking re-election. Federal Labor in 2010 was popular in Victoria but not in NSW, QLD etc. This seat recorded an above state average and national average swing to Labor.
    3. To qualify my second point. i do agree for demographic trends already mentioned earlier in the thread the area is stronger for the Libs than it was 12 years ago so the bar is higher.
    4. However, i dont believe the the swing was entirely attributable to Tudge in May. There is also a very large Chinese community and that is concentrated it in the most Liberal parts of the seat. Manningham also recorded a big swing to Labor. This is one demographic trend may help Labor as the area is becoming more diverse.
    5 Symbolically it is a major importance for Labor that Knox which is said to be new heartland of the Libs returned a TPP in favour of Labor and that Knox City SC and the Council offices are now in a Labor seat.
    6. However, sometimes the overlap of state and federal seats are of interest to show that the demographics are there. For example, Higgins got interest from Labor after the 2018 state result and Bennelong in 2007 due to the fact that state Labor were strong in Ryde LGA at a state level. No Doubt if Federal Labor are strong in 2025 they will look at areas where they can expand the electoral map. They maybe concerned about Higgins this time with the Libs getting a thumping result in Malvern
    7. Unlike the Hills District which Knox is compared to there are pockets of Labor strength in Knox as well as areas that are more marginal.

    https://insidestory.org.au/twilight-of-the-liberals/ -This article shows the overlap of state results from 2018 on the 2019 Federal Map

  15. Tudge should not be in parliament like his mate Robert ls. However come what may. His election strategy was this
    Was a safe seat. Refuse to engage and hope the margin will allow you to win.. well it worked but margin 2 7% don’t
    Want a by-election.. but Robo debt inquiry and icac examination of his breach of
    The privacy act may force a by-election which would most
    Probably be unwanted to say
    The least

  16. The new evidence that has come out has definitely sealed Tudges fate, the question is who can replace him to save the furniture as this electorate does not have a large margin anymore & would seriously damage the LNP if they lost here.

  17. I have heard rumours that Irene Ling (from the same faction as Alan Tudge and close ally of Gladys Liu) is being talked about as replacing Alan Tudge when he retires/resigns/is forced out, along with former Bayswater MP Heidi Victoria. With former Ferntree Gully MP Nick Wakeling losing his seat too, he could also be in contention however I think he has less of a chance than the other two mentioned.

  18. Both The Australian and Nine are reporting that Alan Tudge is set to resign from politics today. Lib retain at the by-election given Tudge’s negative personal vote will be removed? Or would it swing even further and potentially be snatched up by Labor should they contest?

  19. This is the second time there is a by-election in this electorate if Labor have half a brain they’ll throw everything at it. If the LNP lose here it will devastating, I hope for Labor that they don’t mess it up like they did in 1998.

  20. Who will contest Aston for the Libs in the event of a by-election? Josh Frydenberg, Jane Hume perhaps?

  21. This could be an opportunity for Frydenberg to return but I think that’s unlikely since it would be a blatant parachute and as the state results show, this area isn’t as rock solid Liberal as it appears with some pretty big demographic changes in the Wantirna and Wantirna South area resembling more and more like Glen Waverley. As mentioned earlier, Irene Ling and Heidi Victoria have pretty good chances on being the candidate with Nick Wakeling an outside but possible chance. But of course, in a by-election, it’s more likely the Liberals would choose a non-local but high profile candidate compared to a local candidate like the ones mentioned above.

  22. Bob, interesting point Aston by election was actually in 2001 though not 1998. That by-election is interesting from a national perspective. Earlier that year there was a by-election in the blue ribbon electorate of Ryan which the Liberals lost. I especially remember this back as 12 year old as i started to develop an interest in politics. Early, in 2001 the Howard government was unpopular due issues with petrol prices, the Shane Stone memo and cost of living issues associated with the recent introduction of the GST. Aston back then was a good snapshot of middle Australia it was a mortgage belt full of young families the sort of places that traditionally determines Australian elections. This by-election was held three months after the Ryan by-election and Labor failed to do win it even though it was a much easier pick up than Ryan. In hindsight it was omen of the years to come. I would say it marked the start of when Australian’s had accepted the Howard economic model until that was lost with Workchoices. It may have been a sign that the good economic times of the 2000s had started and incumbency was now a bonus. I cite this in my firm belief that Howard would have won the 2001 election even if the Tampa and September 11 had not occured.

  25. Dutton is going to be a huge drag in a Victorian seat but that being said this seat is more socially conservative than seats like Kooyong, Higgins and Goldstein so it may be a status quo result. The Libs won’t have to deal with Tudge’s scandals which will benefit the Libs but Labor should still put in proper effort in this seat to give the Libs a scare given they had strong results in the overlapping state seats in the state election. I believe this seat was a missed opportunity for Labor in the federal election. This also will be an opportunity to see whether the Libs are able to recover their vote among Chinese Australian voters so I would be watching those booths in the western part of the seat closely. They’ve moderated their rhetoric considerably.

  27. Labor are up a good 6-7 points compared to the last election, they did well in the area at the state election, Peter Dutton is despised in Victoria and Alan Tudge vacates the seat in absolute disgrace. Labor candidate should be the clear favourite.

  28. @ Dan M, not just a good result at a state level but based on state results it is actually notionally Labor. I think if Labor decides to run they should nominate Sorina Grasso who is on Knox council and did well when she ran for state election twice.

  29. If Jackson Taylor were to run here, I think that would boost the Labor vote to the point of victory. If Labor did in fact win here, this would be the first time since 1920 and only second time ever which the government had taken a seat off the opposition in a by-election. This is actually a more socially progressive seat than Australia as a whole with the yes vote on same-sex marriage being slightly higher than the national average.

  30. My theory is the reason why many voting booths in the Eastern Suburbs have close margins is that Melbourne’s Eastern Suburbs (middle and outer ring) is a good indicator of Middle Australia given:
    – A mainly middle-class Anglo area yet it has a great mix of working-class and upper-middle class living side-by-side but at the same time embraced multiculturalism (e.g. Many immigrants from China)
    – Many centrist swing voters but again there is a good mix of many traditional Labor and Liberal living in the same neighborhood
    – A good mix ranging from university-educated to Tafe qualification to high-school dropouts in the same suburbs

  31. Haven’t seen any discussion of Labor candidates yet but I would have thought that Mary Doyle, the 2022 candidate, would be an obvious option (assuming she wants to go round again) given the swing she got and the profile she built doing so. It’s not a seat Labor could expect to hold long-term so I wouldn’t expect it to be a proposition for someone with higher ambitions than being a local MP.

    Outer suburbs are not normally fertile ground for independents and I have seen nothing to indicate that Aston’s likely to be any different.

  32. Lots of high-profile Libs declining to contest this seat. I wonder if that indicates some concern that this seat may be lost.

  33. I’ll remind people, Gippsland 2008. Brendan Nelson even predicted Labor would win it as Labor was riding high in the polls (Higher than they are now)

    Opposition easily held the seat. This seat won’t be a dog’s breakfast like some people think it will be.

    It would be a bad idea to run Heidi Victoria as she already lost Bayswater, and being rejected and then running here would be a bad move for the Liberals.

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