Warringah – Australia 2019

LIB 11.6% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Tony Abbott, since 1994.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman and parts of Neutral Bay, Allambie Heights, Brookvale and Curl Curl. The seat covers the entirety of Manly and Mosman council areas, as well as parts of North Sydney and Warringah. The largest proportion of the population lives in Warringah.

History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at every election, the one exception being 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments.

The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.

Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.

Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.

Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.

Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.

Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.

MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.

MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.

Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the only serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.

Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.

Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a party room ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.

Abbott led the Coalition into the 2010 election. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. Abbott led the Coalition through the next term, before winning the 2013 election. Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister until he was defeated for the Liberal leadership in September 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Warringah is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, in the absence of a strong independent challenge.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Abbott Liberal 44,759 51.6 -9.2
Andrew Woodward Labor 12,820 14.8 -4.5
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 10,565 12.2 -3.3
James Mathison Independent 9,887 11.4 +11.4
Marie Rowland Nick Xenophon Team 5,506 6.4 +6.4
June Scifo Christian Democratic Party 1,039 1.2 +0.5
Marc Giordano Science Party 800 0.9 +0.9
Shea Caplice Arts Party 669 0.8 +0.8
Tony Backhouse Independent 368 0.4 +0.4
David Barrow Independent 253 0.3 +0.3
Informal 5,611 6.1

2016 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Tony Abbott Liberal 53,346 61.6
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 33,320 38.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Abbott Liberal 52,948 61.1 -4.2
Andrew Woodward Labor 33,718 38.9 +4.2

Booth breakdown

Warringah has been split into three areas: Manly, Mosman and Warringah. Polling places in the Mosman and North Sydney council areas have been grouped as “Mosman” while those booths in the Northern Beaches council area have been split between the two former council areas of Manly and Warringah.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all three areas, with just under 60% in Warringah and Manly and over 64% in Mosman.

Labor came second on primary votes, but fell into third behind the Greens on preferences, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in Manly to 16.3% in Warringah.

The primary vote for independent candidate James Mathison ranged from 9.1% in Mosman to 14% in Warringah.

Voter group ALP prim % IND prim % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Warringah 16.3 14.0 59.5 23,582 27.2
Manly 13.6 12.3 59.7 16,543 19.1
Mosman 14.4 9.1 64.3 16,062 18.5
Other votes 15.0 10.2 62.7 12,655 14.6
Pre-poll 14.1 10.1 62.6 17,824 20.6

Election results in Warringah at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Labor primary votes and primary votes for independent James Mathison.


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188 COMMENTS

  1. A 12% drop in the Liberal primary vote would take them to around 40% and as long as Zali can come second I would think she will be the next MP for Warringah. Despite this being a safe seat I would be more surprised if Abbott was returned than if he lost.

  2. TPB
    Ever heard of the old Chines curse : “Be careful what you wish for. You may get it !!?”. No?. What do you think Abbott will do after he loses Warringah ? Will he go quietly to the sunset ? When he is liberated from the confinement of MP duties, with his DBPP of $100,000s what then??. Don’t you think you will see, & hear more from him than ever ??. The man has prolific energy, & power. Can you see him hiding out in a depressive funk ?. He is a former elected PM. So it did not go well. Do you think he cannot use the position to promote his views ?

    i can see Abbott being a real massive pain in the rear end, to all the people who loathe him most.

  3. The ABC have just conducted a batch of voter interviews at Manly Wharf….bad news for Abbott and good news for Zali

  4. Abbott has just about finalised his 3 word campaign slogan….SLOBS & BOATS
    a slight variation of the Liberals 2016 slogan..

  5. Not sure Manly Wharf was ever Abbott’s strongest area, for me this seat will be decided in the northern areas which in the recent state poll moved considerably less than the booths across Manly did.

  6. The Phantom Bantom is really contributing nothing except verbal diarrhoea. Ballot Paper is absolutely right. Taking a poll at Manly Wharf is a waste of time.

    There are about 16,000 votes up for grabs from independents alone but that is mainly centered along the coast. You could see Steggall mop these votes up straight away. She will probably take votes from the Greens as well, with a combination of strategic voting and the Greens being relatively unfocused in this election.

    That is easily enough for Steggall to move into 2nd place, where you would assume she would then mop up the Labor Vote, pushing her to 29,000 votes, plus the Greens preferences pushing her to 40,000. I think that would be her base without taking any expected swing from Abbott. Assuming that Abbott mops up the CDP vote, that takes him out to 45,000, which is 51%. We still haven’t taken into account a swing against him at this stage but we have laid a platform for what would need to happen.

    This means that for Abbot to be in danger, his Primary vote would need to drop by 4-5% (4,400 votes) for him to be in serious trouble, at which stage, he will be relying on scraping preferences to get over the line.

    Where would the preferences come from? From the last election, his biggest share came from the CDP but if we assume CDP don’t run, then Abbott would likely mop those votes up.

    His next biggest share came from James Matheison at the last election, where he got 25% of his preferences. He won’t get that because those votes will transfer straight to Steggall and she will likely finish 2nd.

    When Labor was excluded at the last election, Abbott still got 20% of the remaining preferences, which is 3,500 votes. Allowing for strategic voting, that means it will probably drop to 2,000 votes.

    This really does mean that if Abbott’s primary vote drops below 47.5%, he will be in trouble. That looks likely to be the magic number

  7. the areas outside Manly and Mosman…. which make up approx. half the seat will decide this….. still Abbott in the box seat…… wish iit were otherwise

  8. Hawkeye
    Contest over. Last night there was a PML The Pub Test at Harbord. Stegal refused to appear. What does that say ? There is a meeting of 150 of YOUR constituents, with thousands more watching, & you have problems with whatever. What indescribable cowardice, gutlessness, & stupidity. It is a wonder this woman has ever achieved anything. Where did this pathetic attitude come from ? Stegal’s excuses are shameful, & disgraceful.
    Clearly this woman has no conception of her duties, & obligations

  9. Don’t think voters in Warringah will care too much if ZS shows up to a Paul Murray show for a debate, not exactly an impartial program is it.

    I also noted Abbott is again questioning climate change, which is just stupid because he’s just giving more ammunition to those campaigning against him.

    Think there’s enough momentum against Abbott this time, as others have said if he drops anywhere near or below 45% he isn’t going to get strong preference flows from anyone. I think he’ll lose the seat to ZS

  10. Mick Quinlivan hits on something very crucial and it is the big booths in Seaforth, Balgowlah and in Mosman. They do make up a sizeable chunk of the seat and they are strong booths for Abbott. Steggall would have to take chunks out of these booths to be a chance because she can’t just afford to run the board around Manly.

    One thing I will say. If ZS can’t win under these conditions, then I think the opposing forces to Abbott will probably give up after this election. They have just about everything sitting in their favour at this stage:

    1. An MP who has been in the seat for 25 years and is divisive
    2. A Government running behind in an upcoming election
    3. A Changing demographic in the seat
    4. The focus of 2 parties, 2 independents and an activist group operating with the sole intention of defeating the sitting MP.

    If they don’t succeed after all of this, then it really does cement Warringah as a Blue-Ribbon Seat. A victory starts to look more and more Pyrrhic.

  11. Boatswain 1025
    Yeah mate, that’s why Linda Scott was there that night. She is such a right wing spear chucker !!. When you make such a grand sweeping statement, it’d be a good idea to back it up.
    I WON;’T repeat what i said.

  12. No surprises seeing as Zali didn’t cut it at the commercial bar and had to settle for taking family law cases instead

  14. The fact that around 30% of people voted against Abbott’s preselection when no one ran against him suggests that even some rusted on Liberals don’t like Tony Abbott. This is solid Liberal territory but it’s really more of the “small l” variety – I think it’s fair to say Abbott’s not a great fit. This seat voted overwhelmingly for same sex marriage and polls indicate strong support for action on climate change. Zali Steggall’s fiscally conservative but socially progressive policy platform seems to be more representative.

  15. Zali Steggall is just a compulsive dope. Never came to the Forum on Thursday night. I think she
    was afraid of the questions she would be asked. She should just go away and never return to politics again. That’s get up for you run by labor of which I don’t have anytime for.

  17. Paul Murray is such a disgusting pig he doesn’t actually deserve Zali or anybody with an ounce of self respect’s time. He makes Alan Jones look like centrist by comparison. Good on Zali for boycotting.

  18. Margaret – If a candidates forum meant so much to you why didn’t you promote it here on Tally Room? In Macnamara, were I live and while not an organiser of a recent forum, I promoted it on Tally Room and another on in later in April too. I went to my forum mostly to heard the 2 main candidates speak. Margaret who organised your local forum? The one in Macnamara was mainly organised by people with a Red/Green agenda and they were raving on about some obscure proposed mine in North Queensland. Macnamara is in inner Melbourne not North Queensland!!

  19. I found a Daily Mail Australia story on the forum Margaret is referring to I assume and it was in a pub in Freshwater with local drunkers and overbearing security staff. It was chaired by a SkyNews boofhead.

    I don’t get Sky or any other pay TV but boofhead is often sent up on intelligent mainstream shows like The Project and others on ABC TV making a fool of himself with weird comments from his desk usually in the early evening.

    Zali Steggall made the correct call by not attending. There were two other female attendee in the panel from UAP and the Greens. No Labour candidate there either. From what I can read between the line it appeared mainly to be a platform on Sky of Abbott.

  20. Trent
    I find YOUR COMMENT on Paul Murray offensive & disgusting. It is also puerile, unfounded prejudicial, unwarranted, & baseless. Keep your uncivil, & ignorant opinions to yourself, if you want to act on such a base level.
    Or try & do better, & show some commonsense, & decency

  21. Adrian
    Paul Murray is anything but a “boofmhead” i watch him every night on SKY. Your critique is unwarranted, & i feel uninformed. The shows you refer to i won’t even waste my time with. PML is a robust OPINION show, & unashamedly so. PML has a compelling diversity of guests who are ALL treated with a respect, & consideration MOSTLY ABSENT from other News programs, especially the ABC.\

    i’VE Already made my judgement on Stegal’s Appalling lack of judgement, & cowardice, & i stand by it. Your contention this was a mere platform or stunt for Abbott is deeply flawed, & quite absurd. The next one is in Launceston. who would that be a platform for ??
    You are better than this

  22. Mick
    Time to nitpick.
    Getup & Labor are NOT separate, they are connected, if not associated. There is a relationship. Perhaps you would like to tell me that there is no relationship between the IPA, & THE Liberal party !!??. Same shit different shovel !!.
    Perhaps sometime you might explain the differences in agendas between Labor , & Get up?? That ought to take all of a few seconds !!! No please don’t bother your’e stubborn enough to try !!!

  23. winediamond – while Trent’s comment about Paul Murray were very colourful I would say that your words use to describe Trent’s comments would best apply to Mr Murray.

  24. Adrian
    I already made my view quite clear. AND I STAND BY IT. I wouldn’t bother wasting my time, let alone descending to such a level about scores of lefty commentators that i consider to be porcine, bovine, or various other species. Challenge their views, ideas blind prejudice whatever but name calling is just pathetic. Worse when it is baseless.

    OTH politicians- well they can cop the lot !!

  25. Trent’s bile is typical of what counts for contemporary left-wing activism – endless abuse but no substance, fact or logic offered. Mindless cheerleading is all that it is.

  27. Sherriff
    You’ll get no argument from me. That’s why i pay my Foxtel subscription each month, & refine my valuable ,& limited viewing time, to the most effect. I’ve stated my belief on monocultures, & it applies equally to groupthink. I won’t waste my time watching what you so aptly describe as “mindless cheerleading”, & left wing bias on the ABC

  28. If this forum was widely advertised as a “meet the candidates” event then Zali chose not to attend then that would be an error but if its just Paul Murray hosting a segment for his show then it doesn’t matter so much as we know Murray is a leading Abbott fanboy and is probably angling for a job with Abbott if he ever returned to the PM’s job.

  29. Ben
    I could be rude, & glib by suggesting that if you watched SKY you might actually find out !!. In fact i’v’e already answered your question at least partially.

    Perhaps over the years iv’e earn’t your respect sufficiently that my answer won’t be a complete waste of time.
    I don’t watch to be preached at, or receive a selective , one sided view. Unless it’s funny.
    Here is a sample of SKY Shows i watch weekly Graeme richardson (easily the wisest, & most intelligent politician ever.) Most Labor shadows have appeared. Kroger, & Conroy, Politics HQ WITH Nicolas Reece. What a collection of right wing extremists !!. I also watch Credlin, Bolt, & PML Regular guests are These gentlemen, & Bruce Hawker, Claire March, Prue Carr, Michael Danby, Sam Crosby , Darren Brosnihan( type 9) Julia’s ex PA. Ed Husic, Linda Scott & others Such an eminent collection of Right wing extremists !!.

    The question begs why aren’t there more commentators from the left. One obvious answer is that there are few willing to be challenged (on their views) or willing to debate. There are very few that are unwelcome to appear, they simply CHOOSE to absent themselves. So much easier to be given an unchallenged platform to preach, conflate , & obfuscate ..

    There are also the former lefties Latham, Mundine, & Bolt himself. Latham is by far the most intelligent, & insightful politician of today. I also enjoy his brutal Type 8 honesty, & aggression.His crude, & ironic humour

    Then there is further diversity of opinions from Journos, think tanks, former pollies, & others from the broader community
    I could continue, but that’s sufficient.

  30. @Ben Raue that’s like saying why bother going to a local candidate forum where only about 20 people show up to watch. When you’re running for election you take every opportunity you can to make your case. If GetUp’s girl wants to be a federal MP she can’t hide from the national media for the entire term.

    Paul Murray is a centrist who gives everyone a fair go. His programme is fantastic – sometimes I agree with his opinions and sometimes I don’t. But he always makes his case clearly and fairly and is open to contrary views.

  31. Sherriff
    AGREE with everything you say 100%. The Getup girl is just in it for herself. Her image, her resume, her self importance. What a fraud. Another self obsessed type 2, or 3 fixation

  32. TPTMTBP
    i already confirmed the actual nature of the event for you earlier. Did you miss that ?. Richo is more of an”Abbott fan boy” than Paul. What might that tell you ?. The suggestion Murray is angling for a job with Abbott is the most profoundly absurd piece of lunacy i’ve heard in years. Believe me there is a world of competition for that achievement !!.

    Just for a minute ask yourself why Paul Murray, who has the HIGHEST rating show on SKY . A show that is now broadcast nationally on Win 7, would want to even work for the PM, LET ALONE A BACKBENCHER !!. If the show was such piece of dross why would a commercial TV STATION BUY IT ?? Pay MONEY for it??
    Think about it !!.

  33. Paul Murray a centrist? If PM’s a centrist, then I must be a full on commie! Jokes aside, I don’t think it’s a good look to skip a candidates forum, irrespective of who’s running it. You should be using every opportunity to spruik your credentials. Missing something like this gives the impression that you’re either not serious or are so far up yourself that you couldn’t even bother to show up. Neither is satisfactory.

    As for Warringah, I’m cautiously optimistic that TA will hold on. Manly is the greenest area of the seat so it makes sense that Zali would be over-performing there. There’s already a green booth in that area on the 2PP anyway. The battle will be won or lost in the much more blue ribbon areas of the seat and I’m not sure that Zali will be able to crack enough support in these areas, especially considering the war chest that TA has accumulated.

    Furthermore, I’d be very skeptical of any alleged ‘internal polling’ showing Abbott in trouble. Knowing the NSW moderates of the Liberal Party as I do, I’m pretty sure these are just calculated attempts to try and destabilise TA and get other parties/organisations to pour resources into the seat. They tried the same trick last time too.

  34. The lady heckler, at the adults pub, used a descriptive swear word often heard on TV comedy shows after 8 pm, was only pointing out that Tony Abbott was a “10 pound Pom” (assisted passage immigrant from the UK) when he was talking about reducing immigration.

    I have heard other immigrants saying the same thing once the get Australian citizenship particularly if they oppose immigration from countries or regions that have been in despite or conflict with their former homeland and some of it is from medieval times and usually involves religion.

    “Religion is the Opium of the Masses” as Karl Marx said. I am not a Marxist, more sensible centre type, but Marx was correct in that summation.

  36. Winediamond, I stand by my comments about Paul Murray. I would never subscribe to anything owned by Murdoch, but I’ve watched PML multiple times when I’ve travelled for work and the hotel has Sky News. Almost every time there has been at least one reference to him enjoying things that “rile up the lefties” and similar phrases to that effect. How is that not biased? It’s not just biased, it’s immature and he comes across like offending the “other side” is more important than whatever actual topic he is discussing.

    I also find him to be incredibly biased and often rude towards Victoria. More than once I have heard him refer to “crazy” Victoria as if it doesn’t count because it’s not like the rest of Australia anyway and may as well be another country.

    When he has a guest from the Labor party they are generally outnumbered by about 3-1 or 4-1 and barely get a word in. His tone is often aggressive and condescending.

    The ABC news shows are not biased. They are about as centrist and impartial as the media gets, even if tey aren’t always perfect. ABC comedy shows like Micallef & Pickering’s program? Yes of course they are biased, but they are comedy. ABC isn’t a 24-7 “News” channel and have a range of entertainment programs. Sky News promotes itself as a “news” channel but dedicate their entire weeknight lineup to right-biased opinion shows. Many Australians are dumb enough to confuse opinion with news which is where the danger lies.

    Nothing in my comments were “bile” or abusive. I simply said Zali Steggal did the right thing not to appear on a show hosted by such an offensive man which would very obviously have a bias against her.

    Adrian Jackson is 100% correct that your words to describe my comment – which were far more colourful than my own words – could very easily be used to describe Paul Murray.

  37. OK Trent
    Let’s have it out. Murray is not half as rude or bias about Victoria as i am. , & i am married to one !!. 3 OF MY 5 CLOSEST FRIENDS ARE ALSO VICTORIANS. I spent a week of every month for 25 years in Victoria, doing nothing but listening to Victorians So i absolutely know what i am talking about. I have suffered !!

    Victorians are the most parochial, insular, & self important, of all australians. They actually not very covertly consider themselves to be superior to all other Australians. In fact their attitudes are closer to Queenslanders than any other Australians. This is because they think of themselves as Victorians first, & Australians ?? Next??. I could go on & give countless examples of this arrogance, self absorption, self importance.
    The best is that “WE ARE THE CULTURAL CENTRE OF AUSTRALIA” My response is that the last people to use culture as a defence were the fucking Nazis !!!!.

    When at countless dinner parties i had at least 2 unique experiences The first was being subjected to endless conversations about people i didn’t even know !!. The second was reminiscences of Footballers, VFL,AFL footballers often ones so ancient that they were deceased !!. This bizarre behaviour, does NOT HAPPEN in the rest of AUSTRALIA. Other AUSTRALIANS are not obsessed with football, or what other people do !!!

    We real Australians can’t possibly pour enough shit on you pricks in Victoria. You are all just so up yourselves , & we are just so over you !!!!. SO just chuck a massive massive teary about how “rude” we are about Victoria, but the reality is we are still going way too easy on you. Grow up, become real Australians, & get over yourselves. !!

  38. POSSIBLE Liberal hold, Because of somthing called, the “Shy Tony Factor”, Yes you heard me, people might be lying to the pollsters, they might be voting for Abbott, but are afraid to tell the pollsters that so they say they are voting for Steggal, So if hes re-elected, thats likely the reason.

  39. Regarding the heated discussion about the Sky candidates forum, I do think it was a mistake for Zali not to attend. Despite being a clearly biased audience, the Greens candidate in attendance got all her points across very clearly. Very commendable performance.

    I think over all the Abbott campaign have chosen the correct attack line, which is that voting for Zali is no different than voting for Labor. That might be enough to scare rusted on low-info voters away from taking a punt on Zali. The risks of running such a strategy is to build Zali Steggal’s profile as a contender, but that had already happened, and it will also help serve the Liberals’ goals if people who usually vote Labor or Green vote for Zali Steggal instead.

    Still, the sheer amount of campaigning (with many young Liberals helping in Warringah instead of Reid, Banks, Wentworth, Lindsay or Robertson) suggests Abbott’s internal polling is awful.

  40. Jeez there is a lot of dribble here from people who don’t have a clue so let me clarify a few things re: the show from Paul Murray.

    *The event was a “Politics In The Pub” style debate organised by Sky News and held at the Harbord Beach Hotel (colloquially known as the Harbord Hilton)
    *Tony Abbott did attend, along with the UAP and Greens Candidate
    *Apparently, ZA did not attend as she claimed she had a prior engagement for the election booked on that night but claimed that she would make herself available for a separate debate on Sky News with TA and Paul Murray. Take it for what you will.
    *No word on Dean Harris, who also didn’t attend the event.

    TBH, I did watch the debate and it was pretty much a puff-piece debate. No real substance or scrutiny about it, with the only thing of real note being that woman who attempted to sledge Abbott in the background.

    Couple of other thoughts on the debate:
    *A lot of people here won’t know the pub but the inside area is pretty cramped at the best of times. Not a great place to hold it at all. There are better pubs in Manly or the Brookvale Hotel to hold it at.
    *I don’t think a lot of people will be paying too much attention to the debate. It felt like Sky News continuing to push their own ratings by focusing on what is arguably the most intriguing race of the election.
    *What it does show is how micro-managed the campaigns for Abbott and Steggall are.

  42. Sorry Ben. Perhaps referring to Paul Murray as a “disgusting pig” is where I crossed the line and caused a very unexpected backlash which I apologize for, but I was only trying to comment on the topic of whether it was a big deal for Zali not to attend a Sky News event. Personally I feel like the choice of host/moderator would be a relevant factor, that’s all.

    I honestly didn’t expect the heated responses it sparked as I never said anything offensive towards other posters or their views.

  43. Speaking at the Manly Yacht Club,candidate Abbott has indicated that he would be willing to become the “leader” of the Liberal Party again.Abbott like most of us must think that Morrison is toast.

    Methinks Abbott is putting the cart before the horse…he needs to win the seat first……no easy task

  44. Walking home last night at about 830 and ran into a more mature lady campaigning for ZS (I live in Warringah). All going very well I was told. Something like 1,000 volunteers working for ZS and the response has been fantastic. This morning at the bus stop the Libs were handing out Abbott pamphlets. Didn’t have the enthusiasm of the ZS volunteers.

    The press on the ZS ex-hubby and his new wife is interesting. I suspect it will actually help ZS as most people won’t take much notice of an ex and new wife’s views as they aren’t the people you would expect to give a glowing endorsement (Natalie Joyce springs to mind). But being on the front page of the Tele is publicity that no other independent is likely to get and indeed Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison did not make the front page on that day……. So the result is that ZS has had her profile improved at no real loss to her core support.

    I would like to be a “fly on the wall” of the TA and ZS offices when they are doing the polling. Must be very scary for one or both of them.

    Winediamond: I am not entirely sure where you stand on Victorians – could you please clarify your position? Jokes aside, I assume that if Donald Trump was running in NSW you would vote for him so that a big wall could be built to keep people “south of the boarder” out of NSW.

    Cheers,

    Pollster

  45. Pollster
    Finally someone gets that i wasn’t absolutely serious !!. Geez !!!. Not that what i wrote wasn’t somewhat true…..!!. About the “wall”. Well what i would say is that a lot of Victorians see the Murray River as something of a frontier of civilisation, if not the city limits of Melbourne !!. Just saying.
    I would also draw attention to A day to day reality on Sydney roads : Someone driving incredibly slowly, or incompetently– Victorian number plates !!. F^%$ING Mexicans !!!.

    WRT to ZS . The ex & missus had to retract because of the kids. However they did draw attention to how “Opportunistic” she is. That will stick. Her endless propagandising is being exposed. As ARE her fixated image type behaviours.

    cheers WD

  46. I don’t think Paul Murray is looking for a job with Tony Abbott… but it is clear to me he is part of the group think of sky news………. Tony Abbott is destructive to the liberal party if their aim is to try to win votes against the alp……… to suggest he wants the opposition leader job during the election campaign is not helpful
    Under normal circumstances he would be favourite to win by polling an absolute majority… I don’t think they have failed to do so for more than 50 years. But there may be some liberal voters who are willing to sacrifice the seat to obtain a better candidate next time around when they win it back.

  47. Saw a lot of people handing out for Tony in Mosman today at the shops followed by 2 anti Steggall trucks driving around the area in which I saw in the morning and afternoon so it would if been there for a while, I was talking to a few of the people and they were saying the overall reception for Tony has been quite good as the issues of negative gearing and Franking credits have been sticking with liberal voters more then Stegall voters in the area leading for what I believe to be a liberal hold due to the strong results Tony will have in Mosman and also in the areas of Seaforth to Forestville which will be enough to hold out the areas to the east such as Manly and Brookvale that Steggall should have momentum in.

  48. Abbott attended a Good Friday service.with Morrison.
    .of course there were plenty of cameras on hand to watch these 2 blokes worship their god….

    didn’t realise that these 2 clowns were Maronite Catholics…or are they just courting the Lebanese vote

    It was interesting that Margie and the girls didnt join Abbott to celebrate the murder and execution of a very European looking bloke(you know the one depicted by all those Italian painters)

    if Jesus was born 2,000 years ago in the Middle East,he would of been short ,dark and ugly…the exact opposite of the Christian Jesus…tall,blue eyes,long hair with beard….get the picture?

  49. the Phantom bantam – funny you should say that about Jesus as I think the same. I got a leaflet in the letter box and he looked like a Viking with long blonde hair and blue eye. Jesus probably looked more like the late Yasser Arafat. What would the major parties do if there leaders were not Christian (well Sunday Christian, likely for some, like Bill Shorten) as 30% of Australians state no religion, atheist or agnostic on the census form.

  50. Zali Steggal’s call to see a “cost benefit a analysis” for the totally unsustainable road tunnel is a good answer, electrified Public Transport is the solution. Zali’s Queenswood Connections will do her well and Dean Harris is also well known so Rupert has pannicked and started delivering the Daily Telegraph instead of the Mosman Daily that wouldn’t cover James Matheson or Greens Candidate Carla Williams Roldan in 2016 while Ten’s Breakfast Show Host Matheson who used to Broadcast from Queensie surf club lacked the Celebrety Status in Mosman while the Manly Daily published an article on him every day. No amount of tweets were going to help James Matheson take Booths of Tony Abbott in Mosman & Labor’s candidate being a blow in from Bellengen was soon rounded up by The Greens Carla Williams Rolding and the fact that James Matheson didn’t cover the booths handing out How to Vote cards meant half of his Voters Preferenced Tony Abbott. This time there are four good Candidates in Kathrine Glanville (Greens), Susan Coombs-Moylan, Zali Steggall and Dean Harris who should all cut a deal to preference each other to prevent what happened to Clara happening again – Ultimately Preferences are the Voters Choice but it should be an informed choice that it is often who you put between 5th and 10th and in which order that decide the outcome. Ultimately it is just an agreement to put each other before Tony Abbott

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