Warringah – Australia 2019

LIB 11.6% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Tony Abbott, since 1994.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Warringah covers parts of the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore of Sydney, including Manly, Mosman and parts of Neutral Bay, Allambie Heights, Brookvale and Curl Curl. The seat covers the entirety of Manly and Mosman council areas, as well as parts of North Sydney and Warringah. The largest proportion of the population lives in Warringah.

History
Warringah was first created at the 1922 election, and has never elected a Labor candidate, electing a conservative candidate at every election, the one exception being 1937 when an independent was elected, who proceeded to join the United Australia Party shortly after his election and went on to serve as a minister in a number of conservative governments.

The seat was first won by Granville Ryrie in 1922. Ryrie had been Member for North Sydney since a 1911 by-election and was elected to Warringah unopposed. The ALP challenged him in 1925 but he managed over 80% of the vote.

Ryrie was appointed High Commissioner to London in 1927 and the by-election was won by Archdale Parkhill, in a race where the two Labor candidates polled barely 18% between them.

Parkhill had been the Lynton Crosby of early 20th Century Australian politics, coordinating many campaigns for the early Liberal Party and Nationalists over two decades. Parkhill served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1932 until 1937, serving as Minister for Defence during Lyons’ second term.

Parkhill was defeated at the 1937 election by conservative independent Percy Spender, who won the seat in a close race on preferences after falling 15% behind on primary votes. Spender went on to join the UAP shortly after his victory. Spender served in the wartime governments of Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden and served as Minister for External Affairs until 1951, when he retired at the election before being appointed Ambassador to the United States. Spender went on to serve as Australia’s first representative on the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Spender was succeeded in 1951 by Francis Bland, who held the seat for ten years with massive majorities, polling over 70% on two occasions and being elected unopposed on a third. He retired without ever taking a ministerial role.

Bland was succeeded in 1961 by John Cockle, who held the seat until his death shortly before the 1966 election.

Cockle was succeeded by prominent Edward St John in 1966. St John caused controversy in 1969 attacking Prime Minister John Gorton, which led him to resign from the Liberal Party, and he was defeated at the 1969 election by Liberal candidate Michael MacKellar.

MacKellar served as a minister in the Fraser government until 1982, when a scandal involving the importation of a colour television saw him resign from the ministry.

MacKellar resigned from Parliament in 1994, and the ensuing by-election was won by Tony Abbott. Abbott went on to serve as a minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007, becoming a senior member of Cabinet in the last two terms of the government.

Abbott had always held Warringah by large margins over the ALP, and the only serious threat to his hold on the seat came in 2001, when Peter Macdonald, former independent member for the state seat of Manly, challenged Abbott. Macdonald polled 27% of the primary vote and came within 6% of defeating Abbott.

Abbott served as Shadow Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs following the Howard government’s defeat in November 2007, serving in the role under leaders Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.

Abbott resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest at Malcolm Turnbull’s support for the Emissions Trading Scheme, which triggered the collapse of Turnbull’s leadership. Abbott won a slim majority in a party room ballot against Turnbull in December 2009 and was elected Leader of the Liberal Party.

Abbott led the Coalition into the 2010 election. The Labor government lost its majority, but managed to piece together a majority with the support of crossbench MPs. Abbott led the Coalition through the next term, before winning the 2013 election. Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister until he was defeated for the Liberal leadership in September 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Warringah is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, in the absence of a strong independent challenge.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Abbott Liberal 44,759 51.6 -9.2
Andrew Woodward Labor 12,820 14.8 -4.5
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 10,565 12.2 -3.3
James Mathison Independent 9,887 11.4 +11.4
Marie Rowland Nick Xenophon Team 5,506 6.4 +6.4
June Scifo Christian Democratic Party 1,039 1.2 +0.5
Marc Giordano Science Party 800 0.9 +0.9
Shea Caplice Arts Party 669 0.8 +0.8
Tony Backhouse Independent 368 0.4 +0.4
David Barrow Independent 253 0.3 +0.3
Informal 5,611 6.1

2016 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Tony Abbott Liberal 53,346 61.6
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 33,320 38.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Abbott Liberal 52,948 61.1 -4.2
Andrew Woodward Labor 33,718 38.9 +4.2

Booth breakdown

Warringah has been split into three areas: Manly, Mosman and Warringah. Polling places in the Mosman and North Sydney council areas have been grouped as “Mosman” while those booths in the Northern Beaches council area have been split between the two former council areas of Manly and Warringah.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all three areas, with just under 60% in Warringah and Manly and over 64% in Mosman.

Labor came second on primary votes, but fell into third behind the Greens on preferences, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in Manly to 16.3% in Warringah.

The primary vote for independent candidate James Mathison ranged from 9.1% in Mosman to 14% in Warringah.

Voter group ALP prim % IND prim % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Warringah 16.3 14.0 59.5 23,582 27.2
Manly 13.6 12.3 59.7 16,543 19.1
Mosman 14.4 9.1 64.3 16,062 18.5
Other votes 15.0 10.2 62.7 12,655 14.6
Pre-poll 14.1 10.1 62.6 17,824 20.6

Election results in Warringah at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Labor primary votes and primary votes for independent James Mathison.


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188 COMMENTS

  1. Abbott is getting very much into campaign mode.
    there he was on the Corso,dressed in budgie smugglers complaining about the lack of toilets at Manly Beach….really…doesnt he realise that this is a council matter…and that he is a Federal MP

    there may be more important issues than dunnies…say the lack of Community care packages for 100,000+
    older Australians,implementing the 76 recommendations of the Banking Royal Commission,Global Warming

    Tony Abbott…out of touch,out of time….

  2. In more bad news for Abbott,the Wilderness Society has announced that they will be campaigning aginst the incumbent …ouch

  3. Abbott ,in an article for the SMH has floated the idea of developing nuclear power…why does this bloke even bother?

  4. I have never opposed nuclear power and Australia and Canada has most of the uranium in the ground too. Naturally we should only use it for power generation. In 100 years time all means to generate power will have to be used, including coal mines reopening. Renewables will help but will not replace fossil fuels as development and the need for power is expanding to rapidly world wide. Even now Australia experiences power failures after coal plant were closed in SA and Vic.

  5. Phantom Bantam, you really aren’t contributing that much to the conversation. It is dribble, border-lining on spam.

    Now I’d like to contribute something actually useful to this. The best result that a non-Liberal Candidate has achieved was in 2001, when Dr Peter MacDonald ran against Abbott. While Abbott’s Primary Vote at 2016 was similar to 2001 (51.45% vs 51.65%), the difference was the preferences. in 2001, Abbott’s 2CP only got up to 55.65%, while in 2016, his 2CP was 61.5%. The boundaries are very similar.

    What does this mean? It means that of the 48.55% of the vote left over, Abbott only received an extra 4%, which is less than 1 in 10 preferences. Yet in 2016, Abbott received an extra 10% from the 48.35% leftover vote, giving him over 1 in 5 preferences.

    So how does Abbott lose this seat? Two things need to happen:
    1. His Preference Pick-up needs to return to 1 in 10
    2. His Primary vote needs to drop below 45%

    As I said before, Abbott’s big strength is the ‘Old Money’ support in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay, along with Balgowlah, Seaforth and Forestville. Dean Harris is a Mosman local while Zali Steggall is based in Manly itself. The pair would need to preference swap each other in order to topple Abbot and have the 2 conditions that I had mentioned before in order for Abbott to lose the seat.

    Here is the other problem. Steggall would need to come 2nd to be a chance of winning this. She can offer a preference swap with Harris or the Greens but my gut feeling is that some of her supporters would go back to Abbott should she fail to come 2nd on Primaries.

    What happens if she doesn’t come 2nd? Let’s take James Mathieson. His preferences split 50% to the Greens, with Liberal and Labor getting 25% each. That 25% accounted for 3000 votes.

    This means that the 2 conditions now becomes 3:
    1. Abbott’s preference flow needs to drop back to 1 in 10
    2. Abbott’s Primary Vote needs to drop to 45%
    3. Zali Steggall must finish 2nd.

    Fail all 3 and Abbott is more than likely re-elected.

  9. Abbott’s pledge to build a nuclear reactor in Warringah,apparently hasn’t gone down to well with those swinging voters.
    I suppose when an incumbent is desperate they will promise anything…….like a tunnel or a stadium redevelopment for a privately owned football team(Manly Sea Eagles)

  10. The 2016 preference flow isn’t very instructive; the Greens are obviously a less compelling alternative than a centrist independent. It’s reasonable to assume Steggall will receive a strong MacDonald-esque preference flow.

    I think its odds on that Steggall places second. Wentworth showed how pragmatic left-leaning voters can be. Like Phelps, Steggall is clearly the only non-Liberal candidate capable of victory.

    So it just comes down to the simple question of who gets more votes. I still think Abbott, but I’d love to see more polling.

  11. I smell delusion, Have you been to Warringah? Or more specifically, Manly. He has become more disliked as the years go by. Him,Andrews,Dutton and other Conservative Puppets will be gone come May, And you’ll be there to see that i was right. IND Gain

  12. there is really only one condition Abbott’s vote needs to drop to 45% or less…….. maybe on 46% he could be defeated but razor thin

  13. Daniel, you smell delusion and you ask if I have been to Warringah? I’m getting really sick of your commenting here. I have already declared that I live in Mackellar, the very next seat along. You are as bad as the Phantom. I’m on the verge of request you get banned as well because you are doing nothing to contribute to what is a genuine discussion.

    Mick – 46% would be that very cusp. I only say 45% because a 1% difference in a federal election can result in a big shift in numbers. Agreed that it is exceptionally tight at that point.

    David Walsh – I don’t think you will be far off it but the vote could be decided on who finishes 2nd. Steggall would be the only one to chase it down from 2nd place. Anyone else and Abbott holds comfortably.

  15. Abbott has narrowed down his campaign theme song from the Beatles back catalogue;
    Nowhere Man
    Yesterday
    Help
    I’m a loser
    or the Queen favourite…Another one bites the dust.

    Now that the coalition has endured the humiliation of a defeat on the floor of Federal parliament,Abbott must be delighted with his contribution to the dire situation

  16. Ben – I remember when these Beatles songs first came out in the 1960’s as a teenager. Still have dozens of their Singles (one song each side), EP’s (2 songs each side) and LP’s (6-10 songs each side). In the mid 1960’s a single record cost 50 cents. Hard Days Night (in parliament yesterday) or Ticket to Ride (out of the electorate) are another ones.

  17. Today on 2GB9(the radio rag for rednecks)Abbott took the opportunity to bag Zali Steggall
    Abbott complained, among other things that Steggall had never voted liberal…so what?

    Abbott’s nauseating “interview” with Redneck Ray Hadley followed the usual format, whereby they both agree with each other and stroke each others egos

    Abbott is obviously very worried about Zali Steggall’s candidacy…..

    No further news about Abbott’s grand plan for more latrines at Manly

    Does anybody know what Abbott does during question time?…he is always shuffling papers and shows a complete lack of interest in proceedings

  20. Abbott’s recent promise to fight for more toilets at Manly Beach,reminds us that his policies were always shithouse….and still are….

  22. TPB
    WOW !!. I think you really are serious. Stegall is almost exactly the same as Phelps, Plibersek, etc. same fixation, different subtype. Type 3s propagandise, everything. Because she hasn’t learned failure, & as a barrister she’s has rarely had her propaganda scrutinised, or challenged, she is far more vulnerable than is apparent. All Stegall’s policy positions are calculated for maximum beneficial effect, in order to win. Stegall will just do what she already does. To take a brief, & win a case, at any cost, & with NO regard to anything else. Another unenlightened, ruthless, fixated lawyer, with no authentic values. i’m glad you are so easily impressed, i am not. i expect a great deal more.

    The task is a huge swing, & she will fail. When that happens she hang onto some kind of interpretation, some propaganda, that she really did succeed overall. The illusion of success. Like Morrison believes he was, & is part of a successful govt.

  24. The recent discussion around the Med-Evac Bill from Dr Phelps, I think, could end up harming Steggall because she has hitched her wagon on a policy that is showing more holes than Swiss Cheese. She would do well to show the people of Warringah how she considers herself to be an economic conservative because, the way things are going with this policy, if she continues to operate like Phelps, she could be finding that the momentum will swing late.

    Warringah is very consistent when it comes to economic conservatism and this is where James Matheison fell down. He went for policies that tugged at the hearts socially but when it came to funding and economic plans, he was shown to be majorly out of his depth. The people of Warringah aren’t stupid and are willing to move (Take Dr Peter MacDonald). But don’t under-estimate their intelligence because you will be found out quickly and they will take the “Better The Devil You Know” route, to keep some of the song-based themes going on here.

  25. Hawkeye
    You are dead right. All of that get up polling is nonsense. Medivac would be opposed by a massive majority of Australians.What has changed since 2013, when the country voted to stop the boats ? Stegall has already eliminated any pitiful chance she had, by aligning with this idiocy.

  26. Wine…..Medivac is seen as a way of looking after the ill on Manus and Naru who need medical treatment at worst it’s impact is neutral…… if people see the lnp are just running a scare campaign as this is their only hope and are willing to say anything no matter how much it is over the top…. then this can be a positive for labor. Re Abbott chances…. he has to be the favourite but….who knows?

  27. I wonder if Cardinal Pell is still Tony Abbott’s “personal confessor”?
    many years ago Abbott bragged about Pell,as the bloke he confessed his sins to(source the book Tony Abbott,a Man’s Man…by Susan Mitchell)

  29. Regardless of the rest of the country, what seems to be a likely coalition campaign centering again on a boat people scare campaign isn’t going to go down well in a seat like Warringah. May just be the thing that pushes Steggall over the line

  30. Would that be the Susan Mitchell book about Abbott which she wrote without bothering to try interviewing Abbott before writing it?

  32. Geoff, I don’t think its going to win him any friends or boost his popularity in any way but the reality is that, by election time, his steadfast loyalty to the disgraced Cardinal will be of only minor significance at best as there’s already plenty of fertilizer to propel in his direction and a fairly wide cross-section of folks willing to take aim.

    Having said that, the realities of this seat are that its still probably Adv Tone ……. and a far less objectionable LIB candidate/sitting member would be safely returned. Whilst the area around Manly itself and along the coast have proven in the past to be receptive to a presentable independent (and return them to Parlts), the demographics of this seat are far from uniform. The further you go inland, the more entrenched the Lib vote becomes and Mosman has not been referred to as “the last bastion of the Empire” for nothing. Whilst some of that veneer HAS diminished with generational change, it is still rock solid Lib turf and a very significant mountain for Steggall (or any other IND) to climb.

    Yes, there IS a road to unseating Tone but its contingent on all of the following occurring:
    1. Carry Manly area and beachside area, hopefully with as big a surplus as possible then
    2. Making significant inroads into the LIB vote in the inland areas north of the Spit (Balgowlah, Seaforth, Allambie Heights, Frenchs Forest) and then
    3. Hope for as much damage limitation as possible in the Mosman Council area.

    Doable, but needing an awful lot to go right and will Steggall have the troops on the ground/resources to campaign in ALL parts of the electorate or is she just banking on racking up the score on her own home turf and praying Tone’s vote will collapse in a domino effect across the seat ?

  33. That’s a solid read on the area and one i would agree with. The one caveat I would put on it is that the seat now goes all the way to the Oaks at Neutral Bay – and while Tony will be strong in Mosman, the closer to the City the seat gets the higher Zali’s vote would be.

    I reckon she will win booths in N/Bay.

    Also Balgowlah/Fairlight was historically very strong for the Residents and Friend of Manly, and she will be mining their old data bases etc for their support.

  34. Moderate, I DID make the comment that some of the old Mosman veneer has faded and I agree that this will be play out the further west you travel along Military Road. Not sure how many booths there will be in Neutral Bay but whilst I agree Steggall has some hope of claiming a more central booth I suspect others may still hold firm for LAB unless Tone becomes totally “unhinged”. IF Steggall can get any real traction north and west of Manly itself, then her chances and odds certainly improve significantly. Again, another IF factor rather than a bankable certainty.

  35. Abbott this morning, in an interview with Ray Hadley says he “can’t recall”,if he was asked to provide a reference for convicted pedophile Cardinal George Pell……and it was only a short time ago!!

  36. Abbott is advertising for 20 “interns” to help him on the campaign…
    sign of the times,that after 24 years as the local member,Abbott has to advertise for strangers(unpaid) to help……Work Choices 2.0

    Sounds like Zali Steggall has all the energised,motivated volunteers working on her campaign

  37. Abbott has backflipped on wanting Australia to pull out of the Paris Climate change agreement

    Safe to say he must seriously be worried he’s in trouble if he’s doing stuff like this all of a sudden

  38. With his “change of mind” in respect of Paris,its obvious that Abbott will say anything in an effort to save his seat..

    the only trouble is,the voters of Warringah have heard Abbott before and his credibility rating is ZERO

  39. Abbott starting to become frantic in his efforts to retain the seat…flip flopping……pleading for votes

    Who would of thought that the Liberal Party would have to plough resources into sandbagging Warringah

    the Zali Steggall message….number every square and put Abbott LAST

  40. I live in Warringah and just got a call from someone “polling” the seat. I say “polling” because I thought there was an element of a “push” poll with the second question suggesting that a vote for ZS was a vote for Bill Shorten. I was also given five options to say what my biggest concern was in the electorate, taxes, transport, immigration etc. Interestingly, option 6, was not present namely, that the local Federal member has been hanging around for too long, should have retired at this election and let someone else have a go.

    TA must be getting pretty worried……

    PS: I live near the Oaks in Neutral Bay and have seen TA and the Labour guy out campaigning but no ZS. But this may be because there is an independent “with a show” in North Shore for the state election and the indies (assuming a connection) are focussed on the state election first.

  41. Turnbull reckons that “idiocy” will damage the Liberals chances at the upcoming election..

    But hang on, without extremely stupid behaviour,Abbott doesn’t have much going for him

  42. Pollster, I’d say it is more likely that Zali is focusing on running her numbers up within Manly, hoping that she can pick up preference from Dean Harris (who is focusing on his area in Mosman) and using the combined force to topple Abbott.

  43. Hawkeye, I am not sure what is going on strategically but your suggestion ZS is hoping to get Labour supporters won’t work in my humble opinion. Given your previous posts, I suspect you know the area pretty well but in my view Mr Harris isn’t going to get any significant votes the Mosman side of the Spit. It is just such a non-labour area. Example, my 10 year child asked what was a ‘Ford” we then drove around Neutral Bay / Cremorne / Mosman / Balmoral (in our European car) looking for a ford. It took about 30 mins to find one……. If I were on ZS team I would be focussing on the fact ZS went to Queenwood (posh girl’s school in Mosman / Balmoral for those who haven’t heard of it), love the area, and want to be a conservative independent etc.

    Just a by the way – the power line to the Mosman sub station is being upgraded. Apparently the reason for this is because people in Mosman / Cremorne / Neutral Bay are buying lots of electric cars which has lifted energy demand substantially and projected to do so going forward. Which may indicate that the coal electricity / energy security argument being run by TA mightn’t be as well received as he might expect.

    Cheers,

    Pollster

  44. Abbott still banging on about the Northern Beaches Tunnel….no mention of public transport,of course

    Do you recall one of Abbott’s more idiotic statements…….”Man is King while driving his car”…..yeah right

  45. Abbott still banging on about the Northern Beaches Tunnel….no mention of public transport,of course

    Do you recall one of Abbott’s more idiotic statements…….”Man is King while driving his car”…..yeah right

  46. Federal campaign is definitely on.

    ZS at the bus stop at Neutral Bay Junction this morning (with a group of volunteers and tv cameras in tow).

    This could be one of the most interesting seats in the Federal Election.

    Regards,

    Pollster

  47. Frydenberg just announces a budget than may possibly be a surplus…Most COALition members go wild.,,,a forecast surplus of $7.1 bill………tiny in the scheme of things

    Abbott just can’t bring himself to applaud

  48. In 2018 Abbbot’s re-election campaign held a fundraising event at a private golf club controlled by a corrupt Bejing linked casino tycoon.

    Abbott attended a golf day at the club,Twin Creeks,in Feb last year and 2 weeks later on March 2,2018.he went again,with Liberal money man John Caputo,to a fundraiser called the “Warringah FEC golf and dinner day”

    4 Corners doing an in depth program next Monday on Abbott’s latest blunder…
    talk about poor judgement

  50. Liberal HQ are very, very concerned about Abbotts chances of retaining seat

    Latest polling shows a massive 12% swing against Abbott.

    Looks like the voters of Warringah want to send Abbott out to pasture

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