Reid – Australia 2019

LIB 4.7%

Incumbent MP
Craig Laundy, since 2013.

Geography
Inner Western Sydney. Reid covers suburbs along the southern shore of Parramatta River from Drummoyne to Homebush Bay. It covers the City of Canada Bay and parts of Auburn, Burwood and Strathfield council areas. Major suburbs are Drummoyne, Five Dock, Croydon, Homebush, Strathfield and Burwood.

History
The seat of Reid was created for the 1922 election, while Lowe was created as part of the expansion of the Parliament in 1949. Reid had been held by either the ALP or Jack Lang’s Labor breakaway parties for its entire history, while Lowe had a history of alternating between the ALP and Liberal Party. Since the two seats were effectively merged in 2010, Reid has gone to the party of government.

The seat of Reid was first won in 1922 by Labor candidate Percy Coleman. Coleman was re-elected in 1925, 1928 and 1929, but at the 1931 election he was defeated by Joseph Gander, candidate for Jack Lang’s breakaway NSW Labor Party. Gander was re-elected as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934 before rejoining the ALP when Jack Lang reconciled with the federal ALP.

Gander was re-elected as an official ALP candidate in 1937, but in 1940 Jack Lang again split away from the ALP, but with less of his former supporters in NSW following him. Gander followed Lang out of the ALP, but lost at the 1940 election to official ALP candidate Charles Morgan.

Morgan held the seat until the 1946 election, when Jack Lang himself ran in Reid and defeated Morgan. Lang was a former NSW Premier who had led a breakaway Labor party in NSW on a number of occasions.

The 1949 election saw the creation of the new seat of Blaxland, and Lang ran in that seat unsuccessfully. Morgan regained Reid in 1949, holding it until 1958.

Charles Morgan was defeated for ALP preselection by Tom Uren before the 1958 election. Morgan ran as an independent, but was defeated comfortably by Uren.

Uren served as Minister for Urban and Regional Development in the Whitlam government. He served as a Deputy Leader of the ALP from 1976 to 1977, and became the leading figure in the ALP’s left in the late 1970s. He opposed Bob Hawke’s leadership and thus was excluded from Cabinet when Hawke was elected Prime Minister in 1983. He served as a junior minister for four years before moving to the backbench in 1987.

Uren retired at the 1990 election, and was succeeded by Laurie Ferguson, who had been the state member for Granville since 1984. Ferguson has held Reid since 1990.

Lowe was first created for the 1949 election, when it was won by William McMahon (LIB). McMahon was elevated to Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1951, serving in a variety of portfolios over the next fifteen years. Upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966 McMahon became Treasurer in Harold Holt’s cabinet.

When Harold Holt disappeared in December 1967 McMahon was the presumptive successor, but Country Party leader John McEwen refused to serve with McMahon as Prime Minister. McMahon withdrew and Senator John Gorton was elected leader and moved to the House of Representatives.

McMahon served as Gorton’s Foreign Minister, but challenged Gorton for the leadership following the 1969 election unsuccessfully. In 1971 McEwen retired and Gorton’s leadership was undermined by the resignation of Malcolm Fraser from the cabinet. Gorton called a party meeting, and the ballot was tied between Gorton and McMahon, which led to Gorton’s resignation and McMahon’s election as leader and Prime Minister.

McMahon led the Coalition into the 1972 election, and was defeated by Gough Whitlam’s Labor Party. McMahon served in Billy Snedden’s shadow cabinet up to the 1974 election, and then served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1982.

Lowe had been marginal for most elections during McMahon’s service, particularly since the 1961 election. He had only held the seat with a 1.1% margin at the 1980 election, and a swing of 9.4% swing saw Labor candidate Michael Maher win the seat at the 1982 by-election, one year before Bob Hawke defeated Malcolm Fraser at the 1983 election. Maher was a state MP for Drummoyne from 1973 until the 1982 by-election.

Maher was reelected in 1983 and 1984, but was defeated in 1987 by Bob Woods (LIB). Woods was reelected in 1990, and defeated in 1993 by Mary Easson (ALP). Woods was appointed to the Senate in 1994 and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government’s first year before resigning from the Senate in 1997 following allegations of abuse of parliamentary privilege.

Easson only held Lowe for one term, losing her seat in the 1996 landslide to Liberal candidate Paul Zammit, who had been a state MP for first Burwood and then Strathfield from 1984 until 1996. Zammit resigned from the Liberal Party in protest at aircraft noise in 1998 and contested the 1998 election as an independent, polling 15%. The seat was won in 1998 by the ALP’s John Murphy, who held the seat until 2010.

In 2010, John Murphy was re-elected in the redrawn seat of Reid, while former Member for Reid Laurie Ferguson moved to the seat of Werriwa.

Murphy lost to Liberal candidate Craig Laundy in 2013 with a 3.5% swing. Laundy was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Reid is a marginal seat and will likely be in play.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Laundy Liberal 44,212 48.8 -0.6
Angelo Tsirekas Labor 32,918 36.3 -1.3
Alice Mantel Greens 7,673 8.5 +0.8
Ju Kang Christian Democratic Party 3,713 4.1 +2.5
Marylou Carter Family First 2,081 2.3 +2.3
Informal 4,748 5.0

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Laundy Liberal 49,543 54.7 +1.4
Angelo Tsirekas Labor 41,054 45.3 -1.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in Reid have been split into three parts. “East” covers booths in the former Drummoyne council area. “South” covers booths in the Burwood, Strathfield, Cumberland and Inner West council areas. “North-West” covers booths in the former Concord council area and the Parramatta council area.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 51.6% in the south to 56.2% in the north-east.

Voter group LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-West 55.3 22,998 25.4
South 51.6 22,048 24.3
North-East 56.2 17,659 19.5
Other votes 55.5 13,166 14.5
Pre-poll 55.8 14,726 16.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Reid at the 2016 federal election

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132 COMMENTS

  1. Winediamond, he did well in moderate seats /left liberal seats like Brisbane, Reid, Banks and wider Melbourne including Chisholm, where not many marginal seats changed hands to Labor. It’s a fair point to say a more conservative liberal PM like Morrison campaigning on border protection, combined with the coup against Malcolm, will probably lead to bigger swings in those above seats

  2. The “moderate’ Lib electorates are the small “l” upper-middle income seats in the Eastern Suburbs, North Shore and Inner West. These respond to someone like Turnbull. Conversely electorates in the West, North-West, Sutherland Shire, Hunter and country areas are more likely to be receptive to a leader like Howard or Abbott. Reid would now be more an upper-income inner-city seat than a western suburbs one.

  3. With Craig Laundy about to announce that he is quitting..

    Liberal moles reckon.Nick Kaldas a probable replacement

  5. WD,
    I DO believe there were many Liberal held electorates that preferred Malcolm as PM over Tony, and thus why the 2016 swing in those seats was less than other government seats. I think the general media consensus supports this – we all might be right, we might be wrong. I was more simply asking a question above.
    And no, of course I did not change my preferences in the redistribution – its obviously the average or median voter that counts. I’d simply put the view that there are more potential ALP and certainly IND voters in Willoughby and Crows Nest, even Northbridge, then there is in Turramurra and St. Ives.

  7. winediamond
    You are wrong.
    The problem with Crosby is we already have 50 of his kind in Parliament; elitist self-centered careerists and predominantly white politicians. Reid is a multicultural seat. Even I can see the hypocrisy. Laundy stood up against racism. Crosby never cared. No compassion there. Allow me to demonstrate.
    1/ ELITE: Crosby is a Labor party elite; private school boy, married to another elitist assistant gen sect Rose Jackson, fair weather mates to disgraced Dastyari and the Obeids showing terrible judgement. Virtually unchallenged at pre-selection thanks to head office cronies.
    2/ NO DIVERSITY HERE: He hires Asian/ethnic to work as so-called volunteers, didn’t care about s18C debate, product of Labor hypocrisy on diversity with NSW multicultural seats like Fowler, Blaxland, McMahon, Watson, Parramatta etc. all held by WHITE Australians.
    3/ GAMBLING POLICIES: As a student politician he supported pokies on campus. NOW supports child care centers in places like the Canada Bay Club where parents can leave their children to go play the pokies. Unethical.
    4/ CROYISM & NEPOTISM: Crosby never achieved anything off his own bat. He and mate Dastyari published unoriginal books at Melbourne Uni Publishing where they have mates. Wife Rose’s mother was late ABC journo Liz Jackson hence his uncharismatic Drum appearances. He has a sense of entitlement and is not working class or a battler. Dyslexia? Pampered up bringing gave him more advantages than most Australians. He went from union hack (thanks to dad) to ministerial hack (thanks to Dastyari et al), couldn’t hack the private sector, then suddenly elevated to Director/CEO of Labor hack think tank McKell Institute whose fellows, directors, staff etc. are predominantly Anglo-Saxon and WHITE. And he only moved into the area because he was looking for a seat.
    Please, don’t insult our intelligence winediamond. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

  8. @winediamond & Alex Taylor
    I have to say something about the whole Sam Crosby issue.
    Sadly, I agree with Alex Taylor.
    The cronyism, nepotism and hypocrisy of Labor’s diversity strategies are very very disheartening. What on earth is their gen sect Kaila Murnain doing other than put in carbon copies of her own demographic into safe seats?
    It is a joke.
    Probably being told what to do by Graham Richardson and Mark Lennon, two white males. No wonder they have to pay Asian ethnic persons to hand out how to votes.
    Even Crosby’s wife Rose Jackson in an article in The Australian made the serious allegation that NSW Labor is ‘homophobic, sexist, highly factionalised and too white’ (January 19 2017) indirectly criticising her husband while she and Crosby benefited from this environment.
    Craig Laundy took the courageous approach of standing up to sexism and racism in parliament and against the likes of Abbott and Dutton. Crosby says nothing and expects to waltz into a seat.
    Labor has a talent pool of non-white Australians (one or two in Reid that I have actually met!) that get blocked from entering into committees let alone be considered for pre selection on a national level. They are far more intelligent and inspiring than Sam Crosby having endured greater hardship, but they are just not white or ‘connected’.
    I won’t be voting for Labor in Reid. No way. Even if they drag out their token ethnic MPs like Penny Wong who I think is great but is in a very tiny minority in this party.
    It actually angers me this lack of a democratic process. Has anyone seen the diversity of the US Democratic party in their last mid-term elections? And please don’t use the excuse that people aren’t interested in participating. There is obviously a prejudicial systemic problem in NSW Labor. Its plain to see.

  9. High St
    You are probably at least fundamentally correct. Perhaps it was more about Tony destroying his credibility as PM than Malcolm really having much himself. Tragically i think this election will not be decided, by anything real, meaningful, or historic. Rather the propaganda, & hysteria of supposed man made, climate change will suffocate any intelligent debate, on anything.

    Boatswain
    sorry i don’t i have any thing else to add in response to you. Perhaps only that i feel the vote in NSW is profoundly unpredictable, as opposed to other states.
    cheers wd

    Alex Taylor
    Thanks for such a detailed response. I’d like to say thoughtful, but regrettably probably not.

    So i’m wrong, am i son !?
    How ? Where did you get that from son !?
    What did you say that changed, contradicted, or invalidated what i said ? In FACT very very little.
    Why was that ? Could it be that you had some problems comprehending what i said ? Perhaps you just chose not to take much notice at all.

    But let me recapitulate. Let’s say that everything you have said is true. It may well be. How does any of what you’ve said invalidate what i said ??. The answer is that it DOES NOT. Rather you used my response as a launching pad for your own views, & agenda. You used the paper thin premise of supposedly talking, about supposedly the same person.

    Son, i think it just so sweet, & beautiful that you expect politics , & the Labor Party in particular to enshrine your fervently held values, & views. Namely ethics, compassion, inclusion, egalitarianism, diversity, transparency, in a meritocracy !!!. Are you for real son !!??. Where does such a political party exist ??. Actually there is one place !!. Century old Communist Party PROPAGANDA !!!. As Keating famously said “iF you want a friend in Politics. Get a fucking Dog “!!. I think the connection to your admirable statements of idealism is clear !!. It may seem sarcastic, but i actually do admire people such as yourself who aspire to see the world as they would like it to be, rather than accept it as it is.

    Alex, you seem to have enormous issues with the opportunities, & “privileges” Crosby has had. What is your problem ? Was he undeserving, talentless, ungrateful, hypercritical ? Apparently so according, to you. Have you never heard of “noblesse oblige “?. Don’t you think it is a little premature to judge whether Sam will vindicate the faith, & opportunities that have been afforded to him ?? Is that not a little harsh ??

    Sam might be WHITE, & ANGLO-SAXON but frankly the labor talent pool is not deep enough to afford much discrimination of any nature !!.When looking at people such as Chris Hayes (Fowler) or Ann Stanley (Werriwa) it is impossible to discern any discrimination whatsoever !! The whole political” talent” pool has all the depth, attractiveness, & inspiration of a shallow muddy puddle !!. Which party’s puddle is marginally deeper, or less muddy is pretty irrelevant. I’d put it to you that the problem is a systemic one.

  10. I think Sam is a good candidate…… the fact that he can negotiate differences in political positions with his wife and look after her as was the case when her mum passed away suggests he has a open view of the world and is very caring are great qualities for an mp.In short is a good person
    It seems a couple of people posting here do not like Sam and this colours their opinion.

  11. To both winediamond & mick Quinlivan
    May I suggest you listen closely to what I have to say. Lots of Australians have worse ailments that they suffer from, many from poorer and less privilege backgrounds than Crosby and for someone who claims he has dyslexia he still managed to get a degree and jobs thanks to his privileged background and party mates. And guess what, Crosby isn’t the only one to have a family, many MPs do in parliament. They are not celibates that’s for sure. Gee whiz. And one shouldn’t be congratulated for supporting one’s partner with a sick parent. That’s just a given, Australians do that all the time. Nothing special here. And an economics degree? Big deal. Lots of Aussie have degrees. The question is, what has he really accomplished? Nothing. And what’s this about an enneagram? Sounds more like a forced political enema which the electorate of Reid is so sick of. The more you try to make him ‘real’ the more fake he becomes. And yes, Labor is very white white white and probably pushes away more talented non-white Australians from politics so all we have left are these “carbon copy” candidate. Where’s the real merit selection in all of this? There is none. And if he cares so much about gender, why doesn’t Crosby step down and let a woman run? I agree with Alex and Trish B, they presented the facts which I followed up on. Look it up on the internet winediamond. It’s all public domain stuff. Please stop with the “faux” objectivity. You and Mick are obviously two friends of Crosby or members of the ALP, or Crosby himself, who knows, who cares. Alex and Trish actually backed their arguments up. I too won’t be voting Labor this time around. To be honest, I thought Sam Crosby was actually a Liberal candidate haha… Child care in pokie clubs is disgusting. winediamond, you are just ignoring the facts and over exaggerating Labor’s candidate for Reid who on closer inspection is pretty crap. Go read Crosby’s wife Rose Australian article, even she says the Labor party is too homophobic, sexist, and white!!!! Goodness me!

  15. Interesting article from the fairfax papers about Laundy, you can read it here https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/he-can-t-even-return-a-phone-call-liberals-seethe-over-craig-laundy-s-radio-silence-20190311-p5138m.html

    Apparently he’s refusing to answer calls from lib powerbrokers about what he is doing, and has only 18k in fundraising for the seat. Cynic in me wonders if he is sabotaging the libs campaign in the marginal seat by waiting with only a few months to go before retiring just to spite them for what they did to Malcolm, or is he genuinely conflicted about what to do.

    If he does retire in the next few weeks, with apparently only 18k in the fundraising bank for Reid it’s going to be hard for a new face to muster any sort of serious campaign against a labor candidate who’s been pre-selected for ages.

  16. To think Labor could’ve romped this home if they picked a high profile candidate.

    I wonder had the preselection been held after Turnbull was rolled and Laundy decided to pull the pin how many quality candidates Labor could’ve got.

    Crosby is an absolute hack and couldn’t even get the numbers for Council preselection.

    The good news is even if he does win the seat, the margin will readjust like
    Bennelong did in 2010 and go back to the Libs.

    Labor blew this. Even if they win, they could’ve actually held the seat for a lengthy period. Sussex St was courting both Charlie Teoh and Stan Grant. A shame

  17. Interesting collection of comments. At the end of the day I just want factual truth about the candidates and not punters injecting political bias or propaganda which may have explained our responses. Ultimately, I agree with Alex and Stefanie’s intelligent and fact base observations. I sense they like myself are swing voters.
    I feel like Galileo when confronted by the Inquisition and asked to recant but can only reply ‘And yet it moves.’
    Following Alex’s evidence, I can only reply ‘And yet NSW multicultural seats like Fowler, Blaxland, McMahon, Watson, Parramatta etc. are all held by WHITE Australians.’
    That is a FACT. You cannot deny it and soon Reid may well be the same…
    @Stefanie
    Nicely put. Thank you for referring to The Australian article by Crosby’s wife Rose Jackson that NSW Labor is ‘homophobic, sexist, highly factionalised and too white’ (January 19 2017). That’s a FACT. And I agree, if Crosby cared about gender equality he would have supported a woman for Reid and they are talented women of all races out there.
    @boatswain1025
    Interesting article by Michael Koziol if it is completely true. Sadly, Koziol is also a close associate to Sam Dastyari who from what I heard from a reliable source from my sister and after reading his book, Dastyari was Sam Crosby’s best man at his wedding and a close factional political ally hence Koziol’s positive take on Crosby should be taken with a bag of salt. FACT. FACT. And more FACTS.
    If Laundy is deliberately leaving his resignation late, then all he will be accomplishing is the very thing he is supposedly standing up against by letting in another political apparatchik like a Sam Crosby from the ‘hollowmen’ faction, be it Liberal or Labor. Laundy is genuine and a great MP and I respect him on merit which I cannot do for Crosby. Laundy took great risks to stand up against sexism and racism. It would be a tragedy if he chooses to resign.
    @mick Quinlivan
    I have no personal like or dislike for Crosby, but for the system he represents and supports, as explained above. My judgement is not “colored”. We need to be honest with ourselves and call it out guys. Please.
    XOX

  20. I’ve read the star canidate Scott Morrison had in mind former NSW Police deputy commissioner Nick Kaldas has rejected the offer to run for the Liberals in Reid.

    Liberals have said that unless Craig Laundy or a high profile canidate is selected this seat will gone at the next election. I tend to think a star canidate won’t be enough to sandbag it anyway.

  21. Libs are stuck between a rock and a hard place here.

    1. Who would want to run when losing is more likely than not?
    2. At most there are 8 weeks left – no Lib candidate can make up that much ground in such a short time.
    3. Even if Laundy did end up running, the voters will make the decision for him – he doesn’t want to be there and the voters will make sure that he won’t be. The electorate is not stupid – why should they vote for him?

  22. Yeah agreed Redistributed, can’t see any result bar a labor gain here. Morrison’s preferred candidate in Kaldas apparently has said no to running, and the longer he delays trying to find a candidate the longer they go with no campaigning or fund raising. Who’s going to stick their neck out now when labor are likely to win the seat back?

  23. The Australian reported that Kogarah candidate Scott Yung is being considered as the Liberal candidate for Reid.

  24. Stephanie Cleary
    I found your rant highly offensive. Your crack about the enneagram especially. Obviously you could not even be bothered to do a google search, to get some idea of what you were referring to. How do expect to impress anyone, by displaying such total ignorance, arrogance within that ignorance ??
    Just about everything else was a bitter personal tirade ranging from gender equality, racism, & sexism to labor party ethos, & structure. None of which i’ll point out, had more than the vaguest association to what i was talking about.
    Your accusations about me personally, were so hilariously absurd that they simply are beneath contempt. The suggestion i am an ALP member is insane. Clearly you have read none of my other posts, to contend something so maniacal !!.
    Perhaps you have missed all the noise for the past decade, about Michael Photios, & ,the NSW Liberal party?? That great paragon of virtue, principle, & ethics. Its burgeoning membership, & expanding influence !!

    You are very fortunate that Ben is watching me closely ATM. Otherwise i’s have told you far more impolitely, what i really think of your comments

  25. WL
    Yep. Tanveer Ahmed too. But there is a citizenship issue there. Sky reported last night that there has been a massive seismic shift in the Chinese vote because of Daley’s “Asian” comments. I didn’t understand what the numbers were. Was it that 7% in the electorate , or chinese voters swung 7% or was it all asian voters. i expect we will find out for sure, soon.

    In Reid there are 3 very large pockets of Chinese particularly Strathfield, Burwood, & Rhodes. i expect a fair few other asians too. If Scott Yung runs think he will be highly influential.

    My grandfather (whose clientele was predominantly chinese) always said “the chinese never forget.”. Good , & bad. Being more family, & community focused, the disrespect shown by Daley will not be overlooked, nor forgotten. This is no simple grudge. Rather a prevailing view in an adversarial sense. Who is with us, for us, & who is not. The ALP had done quite well with Asian communities. However this position has now been badly compromised , & the damage has only been spreading for around a fortnight. Expect the momentum to build.

    Reid is now safe for the liberals if Yung runs.
    Banks is now back in play, & the LIBS are favourites
    Greenway – Micheele Rowland better hope her Asian communities aren’t as easily offended. There is massive Indian community, which has been very ALP inclined.
    Parramatta- Julie Owen is great

  26. Think you’re overstating the impacts the remarks will have a tad WD. Both Strathfield and Ryde swang towards labor at the recent NSW election, so there wasn’t really some major blow back against Labor and Kogarah may have just been a continuation of that “Banks” George’s river region of Sydney firming towards liberals. I don’t think Daley’s comments will have much, if any, impact on the federal election. Banks and Reid will likely be lost, with Banks probably being harder for labor to gain.

  27. Boaty 1025
    Cast your mind back to when JWH had an “opinion” about the LEVEL of Asian immigration. Would you say the effect was felt for 2 decades ?. I’d contend that plenty of Asians still thought he was a racist in 2007 when he lost his seat. TWO DECADES after the fact. Just saying……

  28. wd…. I disagree with you on a lot of things…. but we are in agreement about Sam being a good candidate.the enneagram is an area of further study for me…….but the idea of classifying politicians by personality is sound

  29. I have been trying to work out where Steph comes from…. attack from the right or the left…….. green? swp? or Liberals?

  31. Mick
    Thankyou very sincerely for the acknowledgement. I enjoy your contribution too. The enneagram is currently being abused as a personality profiling system by business trainers. People do become more powerful, capable, successful etc, so as a tool it works. However it is in reality an opportunity for a spiritual path to true freedom. The enneagram has literally been a life saver for me. I recommend Eli Jaxon Baer “fixation to Freedom” & he is on Youtube heaps.

    When some one is highly fixated it is like a pathology: eg MT, Scomo, Phelps, Tanya (TYPE 3), AS opposed to less Sam Crosby, Andrew Hastie. No prizes for guessing who will be infinitely more egotistical, & toxic.

    The biggest problem with our political system is that it is a stinking, rotting monoculture of Type 5 fixations. There is NO real diversity. 5’s have the mentality, & control, to keep saying the same lies repeatedly, endlessly. This is debilitating for other normal people. It is also a spectacular disservice to the nation. Personally i rage against such a disgusting abrogation of duty, & the fundamental betrayal of national interest. Indeed to the point of seeing the whole cosy system as virtually treasonous.

    Looks like the NSW Libs have done it again & picked the wrong candidate. Scott Yung would have easily won this. Sam has an even money chance now. THE LABOR AREAS that Laundy won over in 2016 :Lidcombe ,Burwood ,Croydon, Five Dock, will swing hard. Don’t know whether it will be enough. Don’t think the strong lib areas will change much

  32. Mick
    point of origin ?? Thought of a few places. Ben has told me to quit being “nasty”. I promised, committed, undertook. So can’t share !!

  33. Reid is a seat where you need to play well with the pretty diverse ethnic demographics that exist (something Craig Laundy was actually quite good at).

    You have a lot of Southern Europeans still living around the Concord – Drummoyne – Five Dock Area, while Newington is seeing a developing Chinese background (along with Burwood) and in the Strathfield region, a lot of Korean and Russians. Even in Lidcombe, which has some Lebanese followings.

    It will be fascinating to see how both candidates handle the diversity of the seat.

  34. I think people are not really appreciating the size of the margin here. 4.7% is a significant buffer. If the conventional wisdom holds that the Libs will do well in NSW (not yet necessarily borne out in the polling of course), then I struggle to see how Labor could win this.

    Yes, the margin is inflated due to the Turnbull factor and Laundy’s personal vote, yet there are still some very strong Liberal areas here. This could go either way, but I’d still tip the Libs to hold this – just.

  35. It is a large margin but the combination of losing a popular incumbent, Malcolm Turnbull’s removal biting in small l liberal seats and a late liberal pre-selection, think labor will pick this up

  36. think you can knock 2% off the liberal vote because laundy is no longer the candidate….. certainly in play

  38. @The Sheriff: Most certainly is. Of prominence in Strathfield is a major Russian Orthodox Church. Reason why I know this is because my wife’s father is Russian and grew up in the area.

  39. Dr Fiona Martin is the perfect candidate and better than the Labor one. She’s self-made with a PHD in child psychology and not a party hack like Crosby. I heard them both speak. Fiona is sincere, warm and real. Crosby is cringe worthy. After Daley’s deliberate racist comments and Morrison’s accidental one, Crosby makes a comment like ni hoa to the Labor faithful and sounds condescending. Scott Yung would have been great too but Fiona is more of a local who went to school in Strathfield and Five Dock. Look at their Linkedins, Fiona Martin is far superior than this Crosby character. She has actually done something with her life. I really hope she wins. And the electorate has changed. It’s a blue seat. Not a red one.

  40. @Trish
    You are on the money. Reid is drifting into the Blue and there’s nothing Labor can do. And I agree with yourself and Winediamond about Scott Yung, he would have been great but probably needs a few more years to grow and mature.
    I read Sam Crosby’s wife Rose Jackson just got into the NSW MLC with no votes from the public and has 4 years up there before the next election. The NEPOTISM is so blatant. Neither of them has had a proper job like Dr Fiona Martin. As a tax payer, my taxes pay for Rose Jackson’s and possibly her husband Sam Crosby’s wages. It’s upsetting to see these political careerists get ahead. I had chats with both Dr Martin and Crosby about policies. Crosby has very few outside of basic climate change which hasn’t been tested economically. Dr Martin has the guts to support health measures which protect women. Dr Martin is pushing for infrastructure changes to reduce congestion and tax relief for small businesses. Where Dr Martin gave me her undivided attention, I found Crosby to be smug and arrogant. Crosby was too busy looking elsewhere for someone more important. He has no humility and very little policy nuance. With Morrison ahead of Shorten in the leadership polls by 10% and 2PP has Labor ahead by 3 to 4%, it’s starting to look like Reid will remain in the Blue. I’m a swing voter and I’m swinging to Dr Martin.

  41. Trish
    Your last post was infinitely better than the first two. Though you seemed to miss the obvious irony of Martin being a child Psychologist entering politics !!. Certainly she will need to fully utilise her skill set !!

    It is pleasing that Martin appears to be so competent. It is very difficult to accept that Laundy did not engage in deliberate sabotage. Consequently Martin has been hampered by an extremely late start. However if she really is any good, she ought to secure Reid in the night with a margin of at least 3% in the end.

  42. Agree that Reid is moving toward the Libs in the long term but it is very hard to see Libs holding on here. The Libs left it too late to select a candidate – Craig Laundy mucking around didn’t help – and Sam Crosby has been playing the long game. I put this down as an ALP gain.

  43. Drummoyne is now a safe Liberal seat. In the NSW Legislative Council election they received a 47% primary vote there, so its not just because of Sidoti. If Reid falls its going to be a comfortable Labor victory overall.

  44. Agreed Peterjk23. I’ve said this before, but Reid is going to stay with the Liberal Party in all but the most significant of ALP victories come May 18th.

    If the Libs are getting between 48-49 of the 2PP, most of that swing will be generated by VIC, QLD and WA. The swing in NSW is going to be negligible IMO; I don’t see Labor outperforming the statewide swing here by enough to win.

  45. It really depends who you talk to with regards to Laundy’s “deliberate sabotage” of the Libs here. The multiple attempts to bring in a star candidate is certainly not a good look in any case.

    The seat also covers state seats of Strathfield and Auburn where Labor gets primary votes in the 45-50% range and in these areas (particularly Strathfield) Laundy put in a lot of time and resources over a long time to build his vote. I can’t see the Lib candidate keeping all these votes with only 5 weeks to campaign up against Crosby who has been out campaigning here for at least 12 months. Also noteworthy that Canada Bay Council has a pretty strong Labor voter base in spite of the huge Lib margin in Drummoyne.

    So Labor has a lot more going for it in Reid than some of this discussion might suggest.

  46. You’d think a mixture of progressive affluent areas and gentrifying inner west areas would be ripe for Greens, but apparently not. Their popularity runs dry very quick as soon as you leave the inner west council area.

    Charles Jago is a sitting Canada Bay councillor but there was a swing against Greens when he ran in Drummoyne (although he was contending with 2 left leaning Micros the Greens didn’t in 2015). Similar results in Strathfield – small swing against but that could be attributed to the presence of KSO and AJP..

    I’m not sure if they have as yet unrealised potential here or if they missed the boat as the area transitioned from working class to more affluent.

  47. LT Smash,

    With respect I disagree. People always talk about having ‘campaigned for months’ as if people care. I hardly think voters will remember if a candidate did a listening post 6 months ago or if they showed up at some community event last year. Don’t get me wrong, they’re important, but completely overstated. The best thing long campaigning does is increase name recognition but that does not necessarily increase votes.

    The key to winning elections is momentum and lately, Labor’s been having none of it.

  48. Agree to disagree Wreathy – sure, the impact of long campaigning can be overstated, but a week of “momentum” in a national campaign can equally be overestimated. In Sydney’s middle suburbs, mainstream media cut-through is as low as you’ll find anywhere and building connections with diverse communities over long periods of time is pretty important – ask Craig Laundy, Jodi McKay, etc etc. If doorknocking and patronising community events didn’t work, no one would do it.

    Another thing to point out (widely reported lately) is that a huge chunk of voters made their mind up months ago, which I reckon would offset the momentum impact of the final weeks of campaigning.

    IMHO Labor wins this seat with a swing of at least 5% this time, longer term it could fall either way and could be subject to redistribution with the huge population growth happening aorund the place.

  49. Long term campaigning does increase name recognition and this has the effect of making the voter think they know the candidate.

    My local neighbourhood watch has about 25 people attend. Both local MLA and Councillor regularly attend. Local Federal MP attended once during first campaign. Previous federal MP never attended but although I strongly opposed him politically he worked very hard in electorate he was rejected by the electorate. Previous MLA was the most invisible MP I have ever come accross. He was turfed as well.
    Liberal MP Andrew Jones (Adelaide 1966-1969) supposedly door knocked every house in electorate. He won in 1966 but lost his seat in 1969.
    Long Term campaigning works when electorate believe you are genuine and it helps when your party is winning.
    Minor parties biggest advantage over majors is commitment of members. They should be campaigning for a minimum of two years every election. Commitment of candidates should be for not one election but two or three.

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