New England – Australia 2019

NAT 8.5% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Barnaby Joyce, since 2013. Previously Senator for Queensland 2005-2013.

Geography
The New England region of northern NSW. The main towns include Tamworth, Armidale and Glen Innes. New England covers Armidale Dumaresq, Glen Innes Severn, Guyra, Inverell, Liverpool Plains, Tamworth, Tenterfield, Upper Hunter, Uralla and Walcha council areas, and southern parts of the Gwydir council area.

History
New England is an original federation electorate, and has been mostly won by conservative parties. The seat was held by the Country Party and National Party from 1920 until 2001, when it was won by independent Tony Windsor.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate William Sawers, who had previously been a state MP since 1885. In 1903 he was defeated by Free Trade candidate Edmund Lonsdale, who himself was defeated in 1906 by ALP candidate Francis Foster.

Foster is the only Labor candidate to ever win New England, and was reelected in 1910 before losing the seat in 1913 to Liberal candidate Percy Abbott. Abbott was a serving AIF officer at the time, and served as a Lieutenant Colonel at Gallipoli in 1915 while serving as a member of the House of Representatives. He retired from the House of Representatives in 1919. He later ran for the Senate for the Country Party in 1922 and held a Senate seat from 1925 to 1929.

The seat was won in 1919 by Alexander Hay. Like Abbott, Hay was supported by the Farmers and Settlers Association, and when they formed the Country Party in 1920 he became one of their first MPs. Hay’s time with the Country Party was unhappy and he was expelled in 1922 for voting against the party. He stood at the 1922 election as an independent, losing to official Country Party candidate Victor Thompson.

Thompson held New England for a long period, serving as a minister in conservative federal governments from 1937 to 1940, but lost his seat at the 1940 election, when he was challenged by two other Country Party candidates, and was defeated by Joe Abbott.

Joe Abbott served as a minister in Robert Menzies and Arthur Fadden’s wartime governments, and held the seat until his retirement in 1949. He was succeeded by David Drummond, who had been a state MP since 1920. He held the seat until his retirement in 1963.

The seat was won in 1963 by Ian Sinclair. Sinclair joined Robert Menzies’ ministry in 1965 and served as a minister right up until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. He returned to the ministry in 1975 and served for the entirety of the Fraser government, barring a period in 1979 and 1980 when he stepped down due to allegations of forgery in relation to his father’s will.

Following the defeat of the Fraser government National Country Party leader Doug Anthony resigned in 1984, and Sinclair succeeded him. In 1989, he was replaced as leader by Charles Blunt, and he went to the backbench. He remained there until 1998, when he served briefly as Speaker in the final months of the first term of the Howard government, before retiring in 1998.

In 1998, New England was won by Nationals candidate Stuart St Clair, whose time in the seat was short-lived. He was defeated in 2001 by independent candidate Tony Windsor, who had held the state seat of Tamworth as an independent since 1991, when he had been deselected as a Nationals candidate.

Windsor held the seat with margins over 70% at the 2004, 2007 and 2010 elections.

After the 2010 election, Windsor found himself in the balance of power, and decided to support Julia Gillard’s minority Labor government, a decision that was controversial in country areas including New England, which usually lean towards the conservative side of politics.

In 2013, the Nationals preselected their Senate leader, Barnaby Joyce, to run in New England. Joyce was at the time a senator representing Queensland. Windsor announced his retirement shortly after, and Joyce was elected in New England with relative ease, ending twelve years of an independent hold on the seat.

Joyce was elected deputy leader of the Nationals shortly after moving to the House, and in early 2016 was elected leader of the Nationals, and thus Deputy Prime Minister. He won a second term as member for New England in 2016, seeing off an attempted return by former MP Tony Windsor.

Barnaby Joyce was caught up in a rash of politicians who were found to hold dual citizenship in 2017. He was found to have failed to meet constitutional obligations by the High Court in October 2017, triggering a December 2017 by-election, which he won easily.

Candidates

Assessment
The 2017 by-election suggests that Joyce should comfortably win re-election, particularly if Tony Windsor is no longer a possible contender.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Barnaby Joyce Nationals 49,673 52.3 -1.4
Tony Windsor Independent 27,763 29.2 +29.2
David Ewings Labor 6,662 7.0 -6.8
Mercurius Goldstein Greens 2,775 2.9 -1.9
Rob Taber Independent 2,661 2.8 -9.8
David Mailler CountryMinded 1,337 1.4 +1.4
Stan Colefax Christian Democratic Party 1,317 1.4 -0.3
Peter Whelan Liberal Democrats 1,151 1.2 +1.2
Philip Gordon Cox Independent 856 0.9 +0.9
Robert Henry Walker Online Direct Democracy 809 0.9 +0.9
Informal 7,196 7.0

2016 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Barnaby Joyce Nationals 55,595 58.5
Tony Windsor Independent 39,409 41.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Barnaby Joyce Nationals 63,100 66.4 -3.1
David Ewings Labor 31,904 33.6 +3.1

2017 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Barnaby Joyce National 57,016 64.9 +12.6
David Ewings Labor 9,764 11.1 +4.1
Rob Taber Independent 5,959 6.8 +4.0
Peter Wills Greens 3,824 4.4 +1.4
Richard Stretton Christian Democrats 2,129 2.4 +1.0
Pete Mailler CountryMinded 2,112 2.4 +1.0
Meow-Ludo Meow-Meow Science 1,183 1.4 +1.4
Jeff Madden Independent 1,145 1.3 +1.3
Skyla Wagstaff Animal Justice 930 1.1 +1.1
William Bourke Sustainable Australia 628 0.7 +0.7
Andrew Potts Affordable Housing 605 0.7 +0.7
Dean Carter Independent 590 0.7 +0.7
Tristam Smyth Liberal Democrats 515 0.6 -0.6
Ian Britza Country 494 0.6 +0.6
Donald Cranney Rise Up Australia 365 0.4 +0.4
Warwick Stacey Seniors United 342 0.4 +0.4
Jamie McIntyre 21st Century 222 0.3 +0.3
Informal 8,618 8.9

2017 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Barnaby Joyce National 64,664 73.6 +7.2
David Ewings Labor 23,159 26.4 -7.2

Booth breakdown

 

Booths have been divided into six areas. The two main urban areas of Armidale and Tamworth have been grouped together, separately from rural booths in the surrounding areas.

Regional areas have been split into four areas. Booths in Tamworth Regional Council outside of the Tamworth urban area have been grouped as ‘West’. Booths in Liverpool Plains and Upper Hunter LGAs have been grouped as ‘South’. Booths in Armidale-Dumaresq, Uralla and Walcha (apart from the Armidale urban area) have been grouped as ‘East’.

Barnaby Joyce won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in five out of six areas at the 2016 election, with a vote ranging from 51.4% in Tamworth to 66.6% in the east. Tony Windsor won 54.3% in Armidale.

Joyce won much more comfortably at the 2017 by-election, with a two-party-preferred vote ranging from 58% in Armidale to 78% in the north and west.

2016 booth breakdown

Voter group NAT 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Tamworth 51.4 14,671 15.4
North 65.3 13,847 14.6
South 59.5 9,479 10.0
Armidale 45.7 7,189 7.6
West 60.8 7,110 7.5
East 66.6 4,092 4.3
Other votes 61.6 9,372 9.9
Pre-poll 59.1 29,244 30.8

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Voter group NAT 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Tamworth 70.8 14,771 16.8
North 78.0 11,511 13.1
South 72.4 8,128 9.3
Armidale 58.1 6,937 7.9
West 78.0 6,714 7.6
East 75.7 3,981 4.5
Other votes 77.4 5,703 6.5
Pre-poll 75.3 30,078 34.2

Two-candidate-preferred (Nationals vs Windsor) votes in New England at the 2016 federal election

Two-party-preferred votes at the 2017 New England by-election

Become a Patron!

54 COMMENTS

  2. You have to wonder what Labor thought they would gain contesting the 2017by election. The only point of interest will be whether New England reacts to Barnaby’s personal life issues. If there is a reaction, i doubt it will be a meaningful one.

    Barnaby is a very interesting character. He is one of the very few Type 8 fixations in politics. They are usually unable to handle all the incompetence (around them). It is also too challenging for them to control their (naturally high level of ) rage. Being a christian has probably served as a kind of bulwark for him. When i saw him in a debate with Tony Windsor, it felt like Barnaby was about to deck Windsor at any moment. When Windsor touched his arm at one point saying “Calm down mate” i thought ‘geez that’s done it !’

    Funnily enough i suspect losing the leadership of the Nats,has been a kind of relief for him. Perhaps he will be content to serve on the back bench for quite some time. I doubt he would want the leadership back. McCormack is such a dill, it is highly doubtful he will last long. The sooner McCormack makes way for the brilliant David Littleproud, the better

  4. Barnaby will not contest the next election…. it would be the wisest thing he could do

  5. Unless Windsor runs here, I expect Joyce to hold i believe he has been damaged by recent events etc, Cheating on his wife / The baby affair and being sacked as leader of Nat’s, I expect Windsor to likely narrowly beat him if he runs. If Joyce decides to retire Windsor would almost certainly win

  6. Mick Q
    Do you know something ?
    Daniel
    Windsor has no chance now, regardless of who would stand. He could however gouge many thousands of $ by running, like he did in 2016.

  7. Windsor has no chance now. A fresh independent with profile. Say a local mayor would be a better option but I still doubt they would get up.

  8. no I don’t know anything…..it is just my gut feeling……. he will never be even a minister again……why just stay and cause trouble? he can also get a job with Gina any time he wishes.

  9. Mick
    Really good point about Gina. However Type 8 Fixations usually have a lot of trouble working together. So i’d have to be wrong about Barnaby, & i’m pretty sure i;m not.
    Fundamentally he would have to be prepared to be owned (by Gina). Not sure how that could work.

    He might also want to hang round to give the girlfriend a leg up (more opportunities). As Tanya, & Michael, will tell you, it’s pretty lucrative being a political power couple !

  10. Barnaby Joyce will have lost a lot of support from social conservatives.
    I for one put him near the top of 2010?/2013? Qld senate vote but his behaviour now means I would put him near bottom. He can not run with both the hares and the hounds.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  11. Windsor’s 2016 campaign reportedly spent $600,000, and for all that he fell considerably short of winning. I’ve believed that the very non local, grassroots appearance of that campaign, starting from announcing it in Canberra rather than within the electorate, really undermined any prospects he had, and with the revelations of that extraordinary budget it does suggest the campaign was a rather extraordinary flop. Hence I think Windsor is a spent force here regardless of whether Joyce runs again or not. I mean, seriously, $600,000 – how do you even spend that much in one seat?

  12. Volunteers are worth a lot more than dollars what with the media talking about the PM race and every other party competing with your signs, pamphlets, ads, etc. When you have a supporter talking with a voter 1 on 1 though that shifts votes.

  13. The campaign that could beat the Nationals would be a large, but not too large, set of candidates all leveraging support in either their local areas or with particular demographics:

    * Labor in the Upper Hunter (which they would be trying to win in the NSW election)
    * Greens in areas threatened by fracking and mining + Tenterfield (which is in the Lismore electorate they’re trying to win)
    * A strong independent from Armidale council in Armidale, and the same for Tamworth
    * Maybe the Shooters in the smaller towns.

    While some of them would be incompatible (eg Greens and Shooters), if the ultimate beneficiary of that campaign is a high profile consensus independent, that independent could win.

  14. A mate asked me yesterday who could lead the LNP to victory in the next election. How impossible is that ?. Almost a contradiction in terms !!.

    After further thought, perhaps Mark Latham. YES !! Beyond audacious, crazy even. Well it is now, way past time for anything conventional.

    However that would involve convincing a Coalition MP committing hara-kiri. No one is stepping forward. The way the Liberal “Army” has been functioning perhaps it is time to go back to the Roman Army practice of “Decimation” Practiced after a defeat !!!

    In essence this fully illustrates the dearth, of not just inspirational leadership, but any leadership at all.

    Whilst not of the same intellect or talent as Latham, Barnaby might have a chance (not much, but A chance).
    Amusingly Barnaby would have become a turncoat, & defect to the Liberal Party !!. Then it could be on….. !!!.

    Don’t worry all my friends of a left orientation. The Libs lack the necessary courage, audacity, boldness, & strength of will to do what is necessary . In fact they have nothing, the Libs are totally bereft of much useful talent whatsoever.

  15. WD, that’s a bit of an odd rant there.

    Turnbull has clawed the Liberals back to an effective tie in the polls, and his approval is continuing to rise.

    I agree he has been disappointing given his potential, but with the polls very close now, I can’t see the Liberals kicking off a new round of instability. Especially not by trying to shoe-horn Mark Latham(!!) in there.

  16. @Nick C … “I mean, seriously, $600,000 – how do you even spend that much in one seat?” Would be interesting to see what you thought Barnababy spent on that election. Gotta factor in Gina’s money as well as the mining lobby inputs. An Independent has no “party favours” to call on.

    @winediamond … “Barnaby would have become a turncoat, & defect to the Liberal Party” how is that a turncoat? He would only be making a statement of the fact that exists (and has forever, really!). Queensland already have a LNP – accepting the fact that there is no difference between the Libs and the “country Libs”.

    @Mark Mulcair … Turnbull’s no longer there, ScoMo is “flying” around following his bus, and Latham has joined PHON. What a waste of oxygen he (and his new “boss”) is.

  17. I am embarrassed to admit, as a former Nats Branch President in Mallee, NW Vic, where we held decades of successful fundraising and outright majorities in all our State & Federal seats, that for the past several years, I now live in the electorate of New England – and thus represented by the ultimate embarrassment, Barnaby Joyce, someone who betrayed the trust of his wife and children in favour of dallying with the hired help and being ‘outed’ as a groper by his WA colleague. As someone with a professional medical background, I was outraged by his stand against free cervical cancer vaccines stating ” it will only make women more promiscuous” . . . . well, at least he can claim real-life experience on that score! His cred suffers from the scientific fact it has proved 100% effective in curbing this frightful, debilitating. and ultimately, terminal disease. Shame on him!

    So, I am an outraged bitter feminist, right? Not quite . . . nor am I am your everyday, young rabble rouser . . . I am in my young 70s, a grey haired grandfather. Above all, I am disgusted and need answers to provide my family and my grandchildren, how the party I have supported for so long, could descend to such crass opportunism and moral turpitude. I have sons, daughters, grandsons and granddaughters . . . and an overwhelming sense of guilt and accountability.

    Yes, I have resigned my Nats membership. I have written to all Nats leaders, indeed all sitting members, but not one bothered to reply or even acknowledge . . . but I accept the call that these tired, complacent and increasingly irrelevant slugs, need a tougher lesson . . . they have not only lost my support, my vote and in turn, the same from all my extended family, I have taken the ultimate step of campaigning vigorously in the leadup to 2019 elections of answering the growing call of “Anyone But Barnaby”.

    I can tell you that the first part of that campaign will target the volunteer Nats booth workers, by means of challenging each to search their moral compass. For those of us who have lived under the mantra of keeping the Labor wolf from the door, we now find that the thief is in our midst . . . and the incompetent Nats leadership (oxymoron) is asleep at the wheel. If we are successful in overthrowing the current Nats in New England, we can then start to rebuild on a sound, respected foundation . . . one that respects women as well as blokes; one that I can support with some semblance of pride.

    Voting preferences? That’s tough at this stage when we don’t know all the candidates . . . but, I stand ready to campaign for any candidate who will rid us of this stain on our self respect. In any contest between Barnaby and a Dead Dog, we will vote for the Dog any day!

  18. wow Kenno….. ABB…… has wings……. B…… needs an absolute majority or he is in big danger…. the best placed of Any has a good chance to win……

  20. Onyer Mick . . . and we are not alone. Popular opinion would have it that the betrayed and disgruntled are solely young tearaway political activists, particularly women (who now seem regarded as non-persons by the Nats) or aggrieved ex-members who have somehow been burnt by the party . . . but we are not so easily dismissed. You don’t need a label stating ‘Gen Anything’ or ‘Baby Boomer’ to spot a liar and a cheat. I stand by my statement that it is crass hypocrisy to ask an electorate to support any man who could so unashamedly deceive his wife of 24 years and 4 daughters . . . yet ask us to TRUST him?

    We should insist that our politicians demonstrate ideals and values that uplift our moral compass . . . that offer examples of leadership . . . not grovel in the gutter!

    We are from all walks of life. We are professionals, working folk, farmers and tradies. We are young, old and in between. Some of us are retired – bot not tired. But several things unite us . . . we are country folk; we are families; we depend on a simple handshake; and we are good for our word! And yes . . . we are angry! Angry, because the mob who used to represent us have given way to a pantheon who have sold out to the big end of town. The total lack of energy policy, the madcap race to dig up our best farm lands and sell off coal seam gas overseas, the disgraceful lack of comprehensive water conservation policy that now sees millions of dead fish each week, the mad rush to build bigger and better motorways in the cities while regional Australia is left with crumbs . . . all these are issues where the Nats once had a voice, a strong voice, and in particular, when in coalition government. What a sad and deceitful legacy we are now setting down for our children and grandchildren.

    So yes, Mick . . . the call across the New England is growing stronger and louder . . . even before we learn the names of all 2019 candidates, the call is growing . . . in the bush and in the towns . . .

    WE CAN ENSURE A DECENT LEGACY . . . VOTE “ANYBODY BUT BARNABY”

  21. Kenno
    I placed Barnaby Joyce meat the top of my ballot paper when he was a Qld Senate candidate but his performance since taking up the seat of New England would mean only the loony left and rabid right would be below him.

    Barnaby you should retire now and not wait for defeat.

    Events since the by election will multiply the swing to ALP unless a very strong independent takes on New England.

  22. Kenno, thank you for your truthful comments as a New Englander going back many many generations, the whole Barnaby Joyce episode has been a nightmare from go to woe, what a disgusting self serving individual his total lack of respect for females is an insult to our mother’s, sisters, daughter’s & all female’s in our families. Barnaby Joyce has not worked for New England District but for his own self serving interest. Where was Barnaby Joyce when the Inverell National John “Wacker” Williams was fighting for a Royal Commission his fight started in 2011 then I & many Australians joined the fight only to have the LNP refuse 26 times what we need & must insist on is a representative of the New England people who has the same honesty, integrity, & values of the community & Barnaby Joyce is a disgrace & in no way represents the values of New England.

  23. how on earth can Joyce retain this seat?

    haven’t the voters of New England been aware of whats been going on?

    hopefully a good independent stands……the results in Indi,Mayo, and Wentworth show that a quality independent can defeat an extreme,right wing,climate change denying dill

  25. Is there a chance Joyce will simply walk off into the distance,with nappy bag in hand?
    the people of New England need a quality candidate to represent them
    Joyce has shown that he is not up to the job..

    .as an alternative career…how about as a janitor for Ray Hadley or footman for Alan Jones

  26. Two Barnabys the sensible and the stubborn ones who wins …. I don’t know if he will recontest…. sense says no…… probably best for Labor if he does as he will have to fight to possibly win…… but that is not certain….. what a lot of resources will be used to try and keep him there……. also face a change attitude if he does not poll 50% or close to it…… ABB takes over and we will probably have an undecided new England seat on the night

  27. Joyce the next MP “considering his position”
    with the Nats set to be smashed at the upcoming election,the former bookkeeper is set to quit
    the voters of New England were not happy about being kept in the dark about the obvious issue

  28. Joyce gave a less than impressive performance on election night..

    he was aggressive,condescending,unhinged,belligerent

    And to think that this bloke was once deputy PM..
    the voters of New England have a job to do in May….send Barnaby to the dustbin of history

  29. TPB
    You seem to have a very distressing lack of appreciation of Type 8 fixation behaviour !!!.
    Barnaby was his normal self !!. When WD junior behaves this way he proudly believes, & sometimes, proclaims that he is ” controlled (“otherwise there would be dead bodies around !”) clear, direct, forthright, receptive, contained (otherwise there would be blood !) reasoned, logical, practical, reasonable, & patient.

    If Junior is correct then perhaps you need to refocus on the essence of Barnaby’s communication, rather than the form, or delivery !!??

  31. We don’t want Tony Windsor back. He’s a strange character. Would rather have Barnaby Joyce win
    and also the Libs against Labor. Bill shows his bully boy tactics. It’ll be awful with him in power.
    Thinks he’s mr wonderful. We’ll have nothing left as he’ll take everything.

  32. Margaret – you are more ubiquitous than me. Are you an adult or a child? Which federal electorate are you an enrolled voter?

  33. With Tony Windsor not running (At this stage), I’d call a Nat hold. There isn’t enough to suggest a strong independent challenge.

  34. Failed Water minister… $80m buy back for no water.
    will he win no matter what?
    Despite the partisanship of the electorate Barnaby is doing his best to lose
    will he nominate? if yes and he wins will he stay?

  35. Mick
    If you are going to use that yardstick. Then what about Penny Wong she did Billions of $, & no water, just air, hot air mostly !!>..Who can forget Tiralee Station !!??.
    See my enneagram analysis above. Mrs WD genuinely thought (WD) junior had a pathology, until she read about type 8s !!!.

  36. wd there are links to a current mp and money travelling back and forwards between 2 related companies one In the Cayman islands…… that extends beyond misallocations and poor choices to a matter for a federal icac to look at

  40. Not sure if it’ll have any effect on his re-election, but Joyce just had an absolute train wreck interview on RN drive about the water buyback scandal. He legitmitately sounded drunk

  42. why did he do the interview? the crazy Barnaby decided….. the sane one would have said leave it mate….. but

  43. For any voter in New England its essential to listen to Joyce’s rambling interview on the ABC

    the bloke was dead set drunk…unhinged…unfit to be a member of parliament

    to think that this bloke was once deputy prime Minister of Australia…frightening…very frightening

    the bloke needs urgent medical help

  44. Poor Barnaby leave him alone, in a such mixed up crazy society he is a fine choice to be in power, go the big tomato head

  46. I did not notice he was drunk…. but even if he. was not what an interview…. Blamed Labor the Queensland Alp govt…. did not accept any vestige of ministerial responsibility….. was quite rude off topic and like a child who had. just discovered a microphone…. he demonstrated why he was a risk to his own side of politics…
    and his lack of suitability for any sort of public office

  47. It worries me that divorced MP’s want to be ministers in parliament. If they cant manage their first marriage how can the manage the country.

  48. Adrian
    It is not the fact that Barnaby Joyce has had a marriage breakdown that makes him unsuitable for office but rather the way in which his marriage failed.

    Unfortunately our politicians in totality do no believe that moral failure is grounds for dismissal.

    Last night Pauline Hanson in effect said it was worse to let her down than for Dickson to let his wife down,

    Adultery should be sufficient of a moral blemish that no one would cast a vote for the adulterer.

    Strip Clubs, mistresses or prostitutes should be the end of party endorsement in 100% of cases.

    Bluntly we should treat all of the above as criminal offences for all parties involved. Politician prostitute and pimp belong outside of our society.

  49. Wow Andrew

    While I respect the consistency of your moral position, I suspect that you would seriously deplete the ranks of politicians if that is your criteria.

    Of post war PMs Chiefley, Menzies, Holt, Gorton, Fraser, Hawke would all be goners on the basis of mistresses or prostitutes and even Kevin went to a strip club. McMahon has rumours of a very different kind. I really do not KNOW about the rest, but even Howard has had some rumours as has Keating. Gillard was not married so I guess is off the hook.

    I think your moral standard would eliminate about 95% of politicians.

Newer Comments »

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here