Mallee – Australia 2019

NAT 19.8%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Broad, since 2013.

Geography
North-western Victoria. Mallee covers a large area in the corner of Victoria, bordering New South Wales and South Australia. Mallee covers Central Goldfields, Gannawarra, Buloke, Hindmarsh, Horsham, Loddon, Mildura, Swan Hill, West Wimmera and Yarriambiack council areas, and parts of Northern Grampians and Pyrenees council areas. Mallee includes the centres of Mildura, Ouyen, Swan Hill, St Arnaud, Warracknabeal and Horsham.

Redistribution
Mallee expanded to the east, taking in Inglewood, Boort, Wedderburn and Pyramid Hill from Murray, taking in Avoca, Maryborough and Talbot from Wannon and a small area from Bendigo. Mallee lost Stawell to Wannon. These changes reduced the Nationals margin from 21.3% to 19.8%.

History
Mallee was created at the redistribution before the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been held by the Country Party and its successor National Party.

The seat was won in 1949 by the Country Party’s Winton Turnbull. Turnbull had stood for office for the Country Party before the Second World War, but was captured in the fall of Singapore and was a prisoner of war for over three years. Turnbull won Wimmera in 1946, and moved to the new seat of Mallee in 1949.

Turnbull held Mallee for the next two decades, and retired at the 1972 election.

Mallee was won in 1972 by Peter Fisher, who held Mallee for another two decades, until he retired in 1993.

Mallee was won in 1993 by John Forrest, also of the National Party. Forrest held the seat for the next twenty years, retiring in 2013.

Nationals candidate Andrew Broad won Mallee in 2013, and was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Andrew Broad is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Mallee is typicall considered a very safe Nationals seat, but Broad’s retirement has opened the door for challenges from the Liberal Party and a number of independents.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Broad Nationals 56,251 64.3 +25.6 55.9
Lydia Senior Labor 18,742 21.4 +3.9 22.6
Helen Healy Greens 6,222 7.1 +4.0 7.0
Tim Middleton Rise Up Australia 4,536 5.2 +4.3 4.5
Chris Lahy Citizens Electoral Council 1,715 2.0 +1.7 1.7
Others 8.4
Informal 4,269 4.7

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Broad Nationals 62,383 71.3 -2.3 69.8
Lydia Senior Labor 25,083 28.7 +2.3 30.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Buloke, Hindmarsh and Yarriambiack council areas, as well as those in the southern parts of the Mildura council area, have been grouped as “Central”. Those in Gannawarra and Swan Hill have been grouped as “North-East”. Those in Horsham, Northern Grampians and West Wimmera have been grouped as “South-West”. Those booths in Central Goldfields, Loddon and Pyrenees have been grouped as “South-East”. The booths in the main urban centre of Mildura, as well as some nearby booths close to the Murray River, have been grouped as “Mildura”.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 56.9% in the south-east up to 78.4% in the north-east.

Voter group NAT 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Mildura 66.1 14,359 14.6
North-East 78.4 11,367 11.6
South-East 56.9 11,140 11.3
Central 75.4 10,210 10.4
South-West 70.8 9,016 9.2
Other votes 67.8 10,893 11.1
Pre-poll 71.5 31,262 31.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Mallee at the 2016 federal election

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38 COMMENTS

  1. Andrew Broad has a huge margin but after the oversea extra marital meet up at a restaurant dalliances as reported today in the media will he win in May 2019 or will he be replaced before the election? Some married folks are like dogs going from one mate to the next conquest in the street.

    In the state seat of Mildura the independent won so will Broad be under threat in a similar rural area if he still stands? Particularly as the Coalition is on the nose nationally too.

  2. a credible independent would make this close……… but this seat is too conservative for labor to win. would expect a swing against him even if a classical contest……. also he was not as blatant as Barnaby….. don’t know enough about the internal no but those folks tend to be conservative

  3. don’t seem to be able to edit my earlier post… but was referring to national party preselectors in my last sentence

  4. Mick I agree an independent has a better chance that the ALP. There was another independent in this area in 1999 for the state election. He together with two other independents sided with the state ALP and Jeff Kennett’s excellent government was gone. But all this was state not federal.

  5. The federal electorate of Mallee is a lot bigger than the state electorate of Mildura- should be a National retain (have the Libs ever contested here when a past MP retired?), though not sure if Broad himself will still be the MP after the next election.

  6. Regardless of what the member for Mallee did, I wonder how many regional Safe National Seats will fall to Independents at the next Commonwealth Election. Are regional and remote people waking up that the Nationals don’t really represent them.

  7. Adrian
    There is no way Broad should be endorsed to stand. What this demonstrates beautifully is how totally piss-weak McCormack truly is. A real leader would immediately have demanded Broad’s resignation, & a statement to the effect that, Broad would not seek endorsement .

    Broad has not only demonstrated a pathological, or bi-polar like lack of judgement (& believe me i know from personal experience). An Incredible level of hypocrisy. Most importantly a total failure to discharge his responsibilities, & the commitments that he undertook, to the people of Mallee

    Let’s flush this bloke

  8. Broad is not going to contest the seat at the next election according to ABC radio news.

    What was that song Jackie MacDonald used to sing on Ch 9’s “Hey Hey Its Saturday” decades ago that went “folks are dumb where I come from”.

  10. You cant be confident about a Nationals retain until we know which Independants are running and who they nominate to run for the nationals

  11. Back in 2013 (open seat on John Forrest’s retirement) and 1993 (open seat on Peter Fisher’s retirement), the Liberals contested Mallee and ran a clear second, with Labor third. Roughly the same occurred in the three-corner 1977 contest, despite the seat not being open. You have to go back to 1987 (the Lib-Nat Joh-for-PM split) as well as 1984, 1983, 1980 and 1969 to find three-cornered contests with Labor getting second-place.

  12. So called family man and chest crossing church goer’s are often the dysfunctional ones. Just like some papist priests who have been child abusers. What religion, if he has one, is Broad I wonder?

  13. Bridget is the only one that can survive an independant, I reckon that because the nationals are urging a woman to be nominated, That could mean they are worried about this seat, they shouldnt make the same mistake as the liberals in wentworth

  15. You would not get Credlin out of the big smoke – the city. They would also want her in a winnable Liberal seat as her husband is a big wig in the Libs.

  16. Libs would be nuts to put an outsider in Malee. Georgina Downer might be available.

    Seats like Malee expect their local member to be active and be involved in every CWA, Lions Club, P&C, P&F, activity in town.

    How many Towns does Mallee have.
    Libs are far more vulnerable to a National push into city and urban sprawl than reverse.

    LNP in Qld is even more vulnerable to a Nationals revitalisation. Come on George Christiansen defect to Katter , take all current Country Party, Country Alliance DLP members and voters and make Liberal Party pay for your support. Following month take all current Nat MP’s and Country Independents. Let’s take back Australia from inner city degeneracy. A few Libs may join but keep out the Turnbull hangers on. It is Time for a Change.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  17. @Andrew Jackson Did you stand for Longman in 2010? I saw your name on the 2010 Ballot in Longman (DLP) was this you? If so who would have you helped to form government if you had won?

  18. Daniel
    Yes I was DLP candidate for Longman in 2010. DLP preferences in Longman in 2010 went to acceptable minors then to ALP then Libs and had Greens at bottom. This was only the 2nd time since 1955 that DLP had put ALP above Libs. 2 reasons. If you look back on posts in Tally Room I have never hidden my links to DLP Country Party and Katter’s Australian Party. All three parties are Chester-Belloc Distributists advocating a Third Way between Socialism and Laissez Faire capitalism.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com
    1) Liberals had been less than honest in pref negotiations. ALP in contrast had behaved honestly .
    2) Liberal candidate Wyatt Roy was identified as a neo-liberal Social Left Wing candidate which proved accurate.

    I no longer am a member of DLP due to Factors that I will not elaborate on.

  20. “LNP in Qld is even more vulnerable to a Nationals revitalisation. Come on George Christiansen defect to Katter”

    Yeah, nah… not sure if you’ve been watching the news today, but I don’t think Katter is going to want Christensen on his team.

  22. Alex
    I stood for DLP
    1972 Moreton Preferences kept Jim Killen in office
    1974 Yeronga Preferences kept Liberal cabinet minister Norm Lee in Parliament
    1975 number 6 candidate in Condon Byrne DLP team, my preferences insignificant Condon Byrne preferences flowed to Liberal Ian Wood
    2010 Longman my preferences flowed predominantly to ALP candidate Jon Sullivan.
    I have been a member and supporter of DLP, Country Party and Katter.
    I have at various times when there was no satisfactory Distributist candidate supported National Party and Liberal party candidates.
    For two elections in 1970’s I was Officer in Charge of AEC booth in Blackwater and on two occasions worked as Officer in Charge of a mobile booth in Petrie electorate.
    I will be working for Katter at next election. Hopefully in Longman.

    I remain at heart a Chester-Belloc distributist and am honoured an proud to have been a DLP candidate . I choose NOT to reveal details of why I resigned from DLP.

    I will not be a candidate again.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  23. Expat
    You are probably right KAP have endorsed Brendan Bunyan to run in Dawson.

    George Christiansen can now be viewed as an obedient puppy of Liberal party.Good luck Brendan . If you are elected we know that you will not be obedient to inner city neo liberalism.
    LNP Nationals are not rural or independent the are obedient to Liberals and whilst they may utter the odd support for rural interests they then vote as if they are liberals.
    Dawson needs an MP that will treat his electorate as being more important than Major city voters. At the moment this is not the case.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  24. Andrew Jackson – a busy man. I loved listening to Jim Killen and Fred Daley debates in parliament. Very funny men from another generation. Now we have the hollow men in parliament.

    I still remember the DLP TV jingle in Victoria which went – “make this state a great state a modern up to date state put a 1 in the square for the DLP” and the puppet show with the strings controlled from above by the Commos “and we know who is controlling the strings” the TV ad said.

    Every Sunday we used to listen to BA Santamaria from the National Civic Council on TV, after church, a chicken dinner oven cooked while at church) and world championship wrestling. After a Sunday drive once a month to the nearby country with every other Sunday driver families.

  25. I think Bridget McKenzie would be the best candidate for this seat, its been suggested that Petra Credlin could run but I think she would maybe suit a seat like Menzies, she strikes me as a city slicker even though she apparently grew up in a regional area.

  26. Adrian
    Yes I can recall. I regard the two greatest Australian politicians as being Bob Santamaria and Alfred Deakin. Many NCC activists would disagree with me classifying BAS as a politician but I do not regard politics as a dirty word. In fact I think Well over 99% of politicians are honourable. I may not trust them but they are honourable in their actions being in accord with their belief system. The only ones I have a very low opinion of are the ones who will do anything to get into power or stay in power. There are only two PM in last 50 years who I classify in this category. (Rudd & Turnbull) However there are only 2 PM in same period that I admire (Fraser and Abbott) All of the rest were honourable even if some of them were so delusional that they should have been Certified. Best Liberal PM has been Fraser and best Labor PM since War has been Hawke. Shorten may outshine Hawke because he is starting from a much lower base line.
    It should be remembered that Menzies:
    1) Never had a budget surplus
    2) Left Australians with greater Trade Union membership and right of entry than any recent ALP leader.
    3) Was more left wing than Keating Rudd or Gillard and extremely more left wing than Latham.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@ bigpond.com

  27. Andrew – Yes Sir Robert Menzies was a liberal not a conservative mostly. I lived in Kooyong (Menzies electorate until he resigned) from 1964-1971 before joined the Army for 23 years.

  29. She was born in the electorate, but hasn’t lived there for a very long time from what I can tell.
    Likely still has family there.

  32. An impressive victory by Webster, considering that the incestuous staffer green-left faction (Peter Walsh, Stephanie Ryan, Darren Chester) were campaigning hard for Bernadette Hogan to be pre-selected. Hogan is a party newcomer who thinks the secret to revitalising the National Party is to embrace the climate change religion and promote a republic.

  34. The ABC is reporting that Serge Petrovich, husband of former state Liberal MP, Donna Petrovich is the new Liberal candidate for Mallee.

  35. I have always said, there is no such thing as a “safe” seat. People expect their concerns to be heard, listened to and responded to positively. If this does not happen support will evaporate. In the current and past, this has happened in New England, Indi, Lyne , and Wills to name a few. These are seats that were once described as “safe”. Mallee now has three strong independent candidates who are mostly described as “conservative”. It is highly probable with the current climate and behaviour of MP’s that it could be snatched from the mainstream parties.
    The electorate is so large now it is much bigger than Tasmania. Currently at about 82,000 Sq Km, Tasmania is about 68.000 sq Km. Each of its communities has similar as well as far different issues. How one future Member can be on top of all of them is a huge challenge. Tasmania has 5 MP’s and 12 Senators. The successful future member for Mallee will have to shout 16 times louder to have Mallee constituents opinions heard and responded to positively.
    The above list of candidates has now been extended to nine with the addition of the labour candidate Carole Hart. I predict there will be 13 candidates by the time the election occurs with probably more independents, Rise Up Australia, Family First,One nation and Katters’s outfit. That will be a dog’s breakfast of preference flows that the count will probably take a couple of weeks. Interesting times a lot different to my day.

    John Forrest

  36. But the nature of politics these days is party based.
    Who ever wins this seat and the odds are the nationals will retain quite comfortably.
    The incoming nationals member WILL be told “your in a safe seat, your low priority, now do as your told or we’ll kick you out”

    For that reason, regardless of how good the nationals policies are, we simply cannot vote for them and the ALP will also never win the seats thet wont care about us either.
    We need a decent independent, and so far, no one is making any noise.
    Waste of time having 13 candidates if only the nationals are out and about…

  37. I thought interesting – bookies offering a little over $4 for “Independent”.

    Which indy would that be?

  38. This has been a little bit of a sleeper seat which will be an interesting mix on election night given the large, diverse field of candidates.

    The unique dynamic here is that the 3 Independents are all preferencing each other – Moar & Modica should get a double digit vote. I wonder how tight those preference flows will be by their voters? The redistribution to the east around the Bendigo arc will increase the Green & ALP vote a little and both are preferencing Modica and the other indies before the rest.

    The loss of the sitting member and the presence of a Lib with a donkey vote position will take a % from the Nats as will the far right parties which will mean that this goes to a complex flow of preferences. Could be a surprise result?

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