ALP 2.2%
Incumbent MP
Susan Templeman, since 2016.
Geography
Macquarie covers the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury council areas, including the towns of Katoomba, Blaxland, Wentworth Falls, Lawson, Richmond, Windsor and Kurrajong.
History
Macquarie is a federation seat, and has always sat to the west of Sydney and covered the Blue Mountains, although its boundaries have shifted. It has tended to be a marginal seat, although in recent decades it has not always swung with the national trend.
The seat was first won by the Free Trade party in 1901, and they held it for two terms before Ernest Carr won it in 1906 for Labor. Carr held the seat until 1917, when he was defeated for reelection after leaving the ALP in late 1916 to join the Nationalist Party. The ALP held the seat again from 1917 until 1922, when the Nationalist Party won back the seat. Arthur Manning was reelected in 1925 against future Prime Minister Ben Chifley, who defeated Manning on a second attempt in 1928.
Chifley held the seat for two terms before losing to John Lawson of the United Australia Party in 1931. Lawson was reelected in 1934 and 1937 before Chifley defeated him in 1940. Chifley went on to serve as a senior Minister under John Curtin and became Prime Minister in 1945. He lost the Prime Ministership in 1949, then led his party in Opposition. He was reelected in Macquarie at the 1951 double dissolution before dying a few weeks later.
The seat was won in 1951 by Anthony Luchetti, a longstanding Labor activist in Macquarie. Luchetti had been Chifley’s campaign manager during his first stint in Macquarie in the 1920s, but stood as a Lang Labor candidate at the 1931 election. The split Labor vote saw the UAP win the seat in a slim margin. Luchetti held the seat from 1951 until his retirement in 1975.
The Liberal Party won the seat in 1975 in the person of Reg Gillard, who was defeated by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1980. The 1984 redistribution saw Free move to the new seat of Lindsay, and the Liberal Party’s Alasdair Webster won Macquarie.
Webster lost the seat in 1993 to Maggie Deahm of the ALP, who lost the seat herself in 1996 to Kerry Bartlett. Bartlett made the seat fairly safe over the next decade before the 2007 redistribution saw Bartlett defeated by the long-serving state MP and Minister Bob Debus. Debus went straight into Kevin Rudd’s ministry as Minister for Home Affairs. Debus resigned from the ministry in June 2009 in anticipation of his retirement from politics at the next election.
At the 2010 election the seat’s boundaries were shifted back to the boundaries in 2004. Louise Markus, who held Greenway in 2007 when it covered Hawkesbury council, chose to run for Macquarie instead, and won the seat with a 1.3% margin. Markus was re-elected in 2010 and 2013.
Markus lost in 2016 to Labor’s Susan Templeman.
Candidates
Assessment
Macquarie is a very marginal seat but Templeman should benefit from a personal vote which will give her a boost.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Louise Markus | Liberal | 34,946 | 38.2 | -9.2 |
| Susan Templeman | Labor | 32,480 | 35.5 | +4.5 |
| Terry Morgan | Greens | 10,257 | 11.2 | +0.1 |
| Catherine Lincoln | Christian Democratic Party | 3,567 | 3.9 | +0.9 |
| Jake Grizelj | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 3,550 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Hal Jon Ginges | Animal Justice | 2,554 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Carl Halley | Liberty Alliance | 1,693 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Liz Cooper | Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party | 1,653 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Olya Shornikov | Liberal Democrats | 752 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 6,389 | 6.5 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Susan Templeman | Labor | 47,733 | 52.2 | +6.7 |
| Louise Markus | Liberal | 43,719 | 47.8 | -6.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. The Macquarie electorate is clearly divided between the Hawkesbury and the Blue Mountains. There is also clear divisions between the upper and lower mountains.
Labor won solid majorities in the lower and upper Blue Mountains – 57.4% of the two-party-preferred vote in the former and 68.8% in the latter.
The Liberal Party won almost 59% in the Hawkesbury.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 5% in Hawkesbury to 20.3% in the upper mountains.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Hawkesbury | 5.0 | 41.1 | 27,716 | 30.3 |
| Lower Mountains | 13.3 | 57.4 | 19,159 | 20.9 |
| Upper Mountains | 20.3 | 68.8 | 14,706 | 16.1 |
| Other votes | 11.9 | 48.9 | 9,848 | 10.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.9 | 52.0 | 20,023 | 21.9 |
Election results in Macquarie at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
What a whopping defeat was inflicted on the appalling Louise Markus. Thoroughly deserved, I wonder if she held the record percentage ? I don’t recall whether Templeman ran twice, or 3 times. In absolute contrast to Markus, she worked her tail off. Anyone with that amount of passion, & dedication deserves their seat.
It is a mystery as to why the population of this seat appears to be stagnant. I’ll be interested to know whether Templeman has lived up to her potential, & made the seat safe for Labor
“It is a mystery as to why the population of this seat appears to be stagnant.”
I assume the Blue Mountains and the more rural parts of Hawkesbury would have significant restrictions to development. Probably only the very south of the seat would have any growth potential.
There is no question Susan Templeman has worked hard to consolidate her position and this has been most effective in the mountains, so Lower Blue Mountains should swing her way. Wears her convictions on her sleeve. The question is whether her vocal opposition to the Windsor Bridge replacement project (the one the NSW parliamentary enquiry said was no good, but too late to stop) will be regarded positively or negatively in the Richmond-Windsor area. Lots of feeling there.
Disclosure – in my personal opinion, using the centre of Windsor as a conduit for traffic from the sand mines north of the bridge is an abysmal misuse of a heritage village.
I hear some libs want Louise Markus back, she was not very popular as a local member at all, She stood by Tony abbot’s ‘Ditch the witch’ where in 2011 or 2010 she stood next to a sign calling the then prime minister Gillard a mans (Censorsed) She was lucky to survive 2013 because of the liberal tide. This is a bellwhether but Markus blew it last time i expect this seat double digits ALP just this election if she is preselected again.
Susan Templeman is an excellent local member and should increase her margin at the next election
Very active in the community
Her office staff are very efficient…on top of issues and good at getting problems solved
NBN a hot issue ..the second rate scheme will need lots of remedial work in the future….thanks to those two conservative visionaries .Abbott and Turnbull
Susan Templeman is surely unbeatable. Everyone knows her up here. She has my vote this time around. She is a member of the Very Red, Very Far Left branch of the ALP but she has also spent $100ks of her government printing budget branding herself locally so her name recognition is high. Her setup reminds me of the Soviet Union Communist printing presses but I think that is pretty cool and George Orwell would be interested. As long as she doesn’t confirm she is an actual marxist/communist during the campaign then she should romp it in and increase her margin as everyone’s political best friend. The Liberal contender seems to be a yummy mummy lawyer but not sure if good looks and brains will be enough to take Mrs Stalin II down this time. It might need to be a second go after the country realises that Unionist Shorten and Commy Templeman was a really bad idea – including me!
Aidan, your commentary on the sitting member being on the Socialist Left of the ALP somehow makes her a communist is clutching at straws just a little bit, however your description of the Liberal candidate as a “yummy mummy” I find highly objectionable and therefore diminishes her to a sex object. Let’s lift the standards on here just a little bit.
wow Aidan…..yes she is part of the left but this means she is compassionate and caring… not about to join the old Commitern
the same as Trish Doyle good local mps
Libs just announced a 3rd river crossing $200 million 80/20 funding. Doubt it will help them. Even if NSW was to swing a few % , it is hard to see that happening here . Labor hold
Yeah I was surprised to see Morrison campaigning here too WD, seems like a waste of time in my mind because it seems very unlikely they’ll be winning back this seat
This seat is always going to be marginal.
You’ve got the Hawkesbury, which is very Liberal. Similar kind of area in many ways to the Sutherland Shire and to a lesser extent the Northern Beaches. Very white, few non-English speaking immigrants and lots of cashed up tradies and other small business owners.
Then you’ve got the lower mountains, which is very marginal. Its more generic middle Australia in terms of demographics (albeit very white), with a large commuter population.
The upper Mountains tend to be very left leaning, you’ve got affluent champagne socialist types around Wentworth Falls and Leura, alternative types in Katoomba and a housing commission area in North Katoomba, so this area will always be safe for Labor.
I’m a local resident – recently moved up from Newtown – greens voter. Can confirm that Templeman seems well liked around here (so various clued-in and long-term locals tell us) and the campaign material she has (already!) sent presents her as a ‘fighting for our community’ kind of pollie, with a long list of practical, down-to-earth accomplishments (funding for playgrounds, etc.) and an endorsement from an independent Hawkesbury councillor.
Obviously, I won’t be voting for her myself but she seems likely to have built up a substantial personal vote and her campaign seems to position her as an effective local rep rather than a labour person as such, which will help (you’d think) in the less red/green parts of the electorate (which after all is most of it!)
The greens candidate is the same guy who ran for the state seat – I thought his campaign material was very good actually but Trish Doyle (a rather Templeman-esque candidate – though more high profile) enjoyed a massive swing towards her so I don’t expect he will work any miracles here.
The key to this seat is winning the Lower Blue Mountains. As Mike said before, I’d say 80-85% of the seat is taken up by either Hawkesbury/Windsor/Richmond area (Right) versus the mid-to-upper Blue Mountains (Left). Lower Blue Mountains is where this election will be decided.
Louise Markus spent too much time trying to pander to her base in the Hawkesbury that she neglected the Lower Blue Mountains and Templemann was able to sweep the booths there.
Given the recent activity, I daresay this could be a Labor Hold
This is no more than a stretch goal for the Libs. I’d be very surprised if they won here, even if they do well in NSW.
Feel like the only reason this seat is getting any attention is so the government can feel like they have some sort of path to 76 if they don’t pick up other key targets like Lindsay or Indi
The Liberal Candidate is building good momentum and should hold the Hawkesbury easily because she is very well known even if the crazy Tent People hate her. The State Libs held the Hawkesbury easily in March.
The Labor Candidate is very popular in the upper mountains as she is Leader of the Labor Socialist faction and a confirmed Fabian so is basically as red as you can legally get. State Labor held the Mountains easily in March.
So it comes down to a political divide. The far left Templeman versus the moderate conservative Richards. With no One Nation or Shooters Party candidate all the conservative vote will go to Richards. Shorten is nowhere to be seen as the families and small business owners of Glenbrook and Blaxland hate him.
Although popular, if Shorten continues to make errors and alienate the middle class, this could be a surprise Liberal gain. Will be very embarrassing for Templeman if she loses and Shorten wins.
The big question is How much did people vote against Markus, or for Templeman ? We will know shortly. After a 7% nett swing (& (9%+ personally ) i wonder how much juice is left in the lemon ? Mathematically there is a suggestion of potential volatility.
Glenn
I agree completely with your last paragraph, except that if Macquarie falls we will doubtless have a hung parliament.
@winediamond I think a combination of both. Markus proved herself to be a numpty when she couldn’t name one thing she had done for the electorate on national television and ignored the Mountains portion of the electorate. Templeman, who on her third run had finally entrenched herself plus with Labor’s strong showing in NSW in 2016 made this low hanging fruit, while seats on lower margins such as Banks and Reid with much more competent and senior local members had a swing to them. I think Templeman has now entrenched herself well into the electorate and should retain the seat with a swing to her in both halves of the electorate. Sarah Richards has probably burned herself out by having an (actual) car crash the other week which has hampered her campaigning.
echt
I am curious as to how you feel Templeman has entrenched herself, & why she would gain in the lib half of Macquarie.
cheers WD
Check out the candidates though.
Only 5. All the key seats have double that.
3 x far left candidates versus a moderate Liberal in Richards and the Palmer token.
Richards will get the Palmer preferences. No-one votes Palmer and gives their preferences to the far left.
So Richards is No.1 on the Ballot and gets all the moderate and right wing votes.
Templeman aligned herself with CAWB and Lee Rhiannon and confirms herself as a Socialist.
Shorten just alienated small business wirh his casual wage policy and is obviously a problem for Templeman as he has not joined her on the campaign yet. She doesn’t want Shorten in the Hawkesbury.
This seat is in play big-time on 18 May. Templeman would be very very nervous.
Glenn
Interesting. Inexplicably i’ve been preoccupied with the macro effects of Shorten’s casual, & more the minimum wage policies. Unemployment will increase savagely. Hadn’t really considered an electoral impact because i think of employers as the lib base.
Don’t think i can agree on Palmer preferences. 70/30 is the best the libs could hope for IMV. The compelling question explicitly is How many lib voters voted against Markus just to be rid of her. Same question applies in Indi, with Mirabella.
Analysis is a bit off I feel. UAP probably won’t poll enough to be that important, and even then in 2013 only 55% of preferences flowed to the libs nationally.
Think the reason Shorten hasn’t been here is because they feel they don’t need him to campaign here. Still believe the only reason Morrison came here was to give the optics that they could pick up the seat and get to 76.
Palmer’s man here, Pettitt, is an old skinhead from Riverstone who was mates with Jim Saleam. He had to stack his council ticket with candidates who didn’t even know him! He has been in more parties than the Kardashians and has failed here before with the LDP and Australia First.
Templeperson’s main office is in Windsor and she’s been working well at this end of the community, but she’s up against the numpties that live like Whalan and vote like Turramurra. Demographics changing quickly in this seat as many move out here from inner west and also larger immigrant vote. The largest cohort of Australia’s immigrants come from the UK (refugees from May’s Britain!), and it shows up here.
The comments re lower mountains are spot on. That’s where this is fought. I’ve seen more garage sale signs than Richards corflutes in the Hawkesbury.
Safe, with a small swing to ALP. As winediamond said, most of the juice was squeezed from this lemon in 2016.
Given the demographics and voting preferences of the Hawkesbury area I’m surprised PHON isn’t running someone. Whilst parts of it area wealthy acreage (similar to places like Dural), a lot of it are very rednecky, ie rural folk with low income and education levels but very much socially conservative, which is PHON’s bread and butter.
Good pick up for Sarah Richards, who got top position on the ballot paper. So add 1% to the Coalition there.
From there, it’s a question as to how much people voted against Markus and whether they would come back to Sarah. Markus somehow lost booths in Windsor and Richmind, which shows how poorly she had been doing.
I would say it will be a Labor hold but there will be close to no swing in this election
Richards is a contender for a future election, if her selection holds. Not this one. She admits she doesn’t have the presence in the Mountains that would be required to unseat Templeman. However, while I doubt Pettitt will get his deposit back there is definitely a minority conservative and xenophobic underbelly to this electorate (and Lindsay). Preferences will flow to the Libs from Pettit, and directly (due to no CDP or SFF candidates). Nevertheless I predict a steady result, a swing back in the north but an increase for Labor on a 2PP basis especially in the upper mountains. Lower mountains should hold for Susan. While they were glad to see the back of Markus I don’t think they have taken up with anyone in her stead, and Templeman’s reputation on local issues has grown since the last election.
One minor issue that has popped up in discussions I’ve had is Templeman’s falling in line with party stances on renewables, in particular their voting compromises on ARENA. While I think Templeman is personally very pro-renewables, and like the electorate is ahead of Labor on that issue, she is hampered by party discipline and deals.
It’s noticeable that pro-Windsor Bridge replacement pundits like to tar all opposition as “crazy” and “far left.” One wonders what motivates them, given the bridge will hardly improve traffic, will add no value to Windsor’s heritage precinct and its businesses, and construction has already made a complete mess of the riverfront.
Templeman has certainly established a strong profile over the past few years which means she will probably hold on. That said, apart from pulling off the number one spot on the ballot paper Richards is also a much stronger candidate than Markus and Scomo is more appealing in these parts compared to Turnbull so I’ll be watching it closely on election night. The other thing working for Richards is the lack of Hanson/Shooters candidates which will boost her vote. All in all one to watch far
more so than what the pundits and beefing odds suggest.
Another weekend of Liberal announcements and Sarah Richards seems to be flooding the market with her campaign. Obviously very well backed and organised. Susan Templeman seems to be flustered and reactive. Liberals announce something and she matches it within 24 hours. Doesn’t even hide she is copying and chasing. The online Labor trolls are now aggressive and abusive which shows they are very worried. Without her own ideas and with this strong well funded Liberal, this seat is now even chances and will be mentioned a lot on election night TV programs as in play.
Glenn
Really interesting post. Not sure i’m ready just yet to agree with your conclusions, & prediction. However if the next Newspoll is 50-50 it would be pretty compelling
cheers WD
Templeman in Macquarie and Beamer in Lindsay next door must wish the election was yesterday. They both have far better candidates on their heels than the Libs could muster last time and Scomo is the type of white bread pollie who soothes the key swing booths in both seats ie Richmond Windsor Bligh Park and Lower Mountains in Macquarie, Glenmore Park and South Penrith in Lindsay. Shorten is hardly a hit round here that said he could win more votes than Turnbull but less than Scomo no doubt. More popcorn please.
Templeman promised the world yesterday. Everyone got some money.and it backfired on her own social media page. Buying friends doesn’t work. She was supposed to win easy but is in a major fight and is obviously desperate.
I would agree that the promises are flowing at the moment – both sides have made announcements in the last couple of days. There have been some discussions on Facebook about whether certain initiatives are Federal or State responsibilities, and whether the promised funding is enough (e.g. the DV accommodation announcement), as well as some fairly blatant trolling of pages. However I mostly dispute Glenn’s assertions that this means desperation for Templeman, or that Richards is “everywhere” at the moment. Wishful thinking. There are 2 houses with corflutes within walking distance of mine, one for each candidate (the Richards one has TWO corflutes, but given it’s at the far end of what is essentially a cul de sac, 2 seems to be a bit of a waste). I go to the shops unhindered by political touts and no-one has approached our address. There may be advertising elsewhere, but I haven’t noticed.
I think people will have made their minds up by now anyway.
I can’t wait until this election is over. Everywhere I go there is another Susan Templeman red sign pleading for my attention. Today I get my 4000th Templeman brochure in my letterbox and this one has a picture of her in the front of her house that burnt down 6 years ago blaming climate change. It was power lines that started that fire so the heart strings are actually a lie. The bookies say she is outright favourite but the amount of money she is spending would indicate her polls tell her she is in major trouble. I just hope she picks up her billion signs afterwards and asks her Green friends how to dispose of them properly. Bring on next week.
Who is the better in parliament? Labor governmenti is well staffed, educated and ready to lead. Where as the coalition has faulted tearing itself apart. Voters of Macquarie want respectful and an appreciative candidate & government that’s effective amongst peers. Workers win, players not today!
Going through the results, there was a small swing back in the Lower Blue Mountains but the big recovery happened in Richmond/Windsor, suggesting that the recovery back was more than likely a bounce from Louise Markus not running.
The swing to the Liberals here seems to have been driven entirely by the Hawkesbury area and a few of the lower mountains towns.
The middle and upper mountains actually swung to Labor.
The Labor Team are blaming the Hawkesbury for their loss yet they voted her in last time. Maybe Susan was just not as popular as she thought. Maybe Shorten’s absence during the campaign was because the polls showed Macquarie can’t stand him. Maybe Sarah ran a brilliant branding campaign? But no, with Labor it is always someone else’s fault.
I live in the upper mountains and I can tell you that the LNP Candidate has never been up here.
Check the AEC stats on performance booth by booth and it’s clear the LNP have drawn level with the ALP with a huge majority in the Hawkesbury area. The LNP vote in the mountains, particularly west of Soringwood I’d negligible, and I dint think the LNP really care. The election was win and in booths that mist mountains people don’t even realise are in our electorate
I think Tony is correct, although there’s an issue with uncategorised votes that I will get to. Based on yesterday’s figures of 88% when the total number of votes counted was very close to 2016, Liberal candidate had increased the vote for the party by 3270 in the Hawkesbury, including Windsor and (particularly) Richmond PPVC. That’s on a total increased votes of 2688 in that area. Templeman lost >500 there. Big swings in Richmond and Bligh Park, which has got at least a little to do with Richards touting her air force cadet credentials on her bio.
In the upper mountains (including Katoomba PPVC) they’d counted over 1,200 more votes by yesterday, of which Richards had achieved 222 and Templeman 1251.
In the Mid-Lower Mountains (including remaining PPVC apart from BLV, Hospital and Sydney – i.e. Penrith & Emu Plains) there were 1642 additional votes, Libs took 1074 more and Labor 568. It wouldn’t have done enough to counteract the swing to Templeman in the upper mountains, hence I conclude the main swing was in the Hawkesbury. BUT…
I’m not sure what to make of the bunch at the bottom of the AEC listings, particularly the lack of any Pre-poll votes – (how was that different from 2016?). Numbers for postal appear to be similar, Absentee has fallen right off. Almost 6,000 fewer votes categorised here. Some help with interpreting those would be appreciated.
Sorry – mid-mountains (Linden to Bullaburra roughly) is with the upper Mountains. The description was wrong but the figures were grouped correctly.
Looks like Macquarie is going to be a barrel of fun so HERE WE GO!
Current Margin has Labor up by 27. This will trigger an automatic recount, in full
Absentees are at 50.34 to Labor with a maximum of 1122 to count. If the trend continues, this adds an extra 8 to Labor’s Margin, so we are up to 35.
Provisional are at 59.67 to Labor but there are only 184 left to count. Current trending would push Labor’s Margin out to 71
Dec Pre-Poll is currently at 51.14 to Labor and there is 1734 votes to count. Labor gets an extra 40 on their margin and their lead goes up to 111.
BUT
Postals are currently at 56.74 to Liberal and there are 1467 votes left to count.
On that trend, Liberals gain 197, meaning that they go from trailing Labor by 111 to being in front by 86 votes.
This final position will still trigger an automatic recount in full!
Not quite sure what you are looking at hawkeye but currently the ALP is ahead by 284. This margin is likely to increase by 40-80 given the way absentee and provisional votes are trending, so the ALP is likely to end up about 330 ahead. There are less than 1500 postals still to count ad it is ot very likely that the LNP can now catch up.
Looks like Labor win with latest figures putting them in front by almost 300.
Lucky Morrison didn’t include Richards in the “winners” (new members) photo yesterday in Parliament.
It’s quite a ride! Currently it looks as though Richards would have to achieve 54% of the remaining count to draw even.
Glen took Local
54% of postal votes in a close seat is quite achievable. Liberals do better in postal votes for three reasons
1) they are highly organised to get postal votes
2) Liberal voters seem to prefer postal voting when compared to other parties. Partly an education thing
But most of all
3) Liberals age demographic use Australia Post . Greens probably do not empty post box and would not know where the Post Office is. Australia Post is not part of their focus.
With Postal votes currently running at 56% I would not rule Libs out yet.
Liberals also tend to better in Other Section votes due to greater stability of residency therefore being off the roll is not a failure to change enrolment rather an error by AEC normally electoral check has missed them due to holidays or like. Issued Ballot paper will match address they are living at. Young renters are disadvantaged because they are not on roll due to not changing enrolment when moving from unit to unit.
In effect Postal voting nearly always favours Liberal Party and two major parties have a decided advantage over minor parties. Parties that communicate with All electors in a Division face a postage cost alone of about 100 000 voters * 20cents = $20,000. Only the two major parties can pay this up front and be ready to post on day Writs are issued. Therefore two majors dominate postal votes to a greater degree than normal votes.Liberals get 10/10 for postal vote management ALP about 8/10 Greens maybe 5/10 and other minor party’s <1/10. Postal Vote management requires allocation of clerical resources IT data base management resources and funding of about $20 K per Division.
I won’t argue the general principle, Andrew, particularly on the resources required. I’m just not sure that it applies here with sufficient force. Last time there were just under 6,000 postal votes and the Liberals got almost 55% of them. Labor got more of the Absent and Prepoll, though there were fewer of those. Adding Absent, Pre-poll, Postal and Provisional together, the difference was <100, i.e. Templeman got a few dozen less than Markus. Which admittedly could have been impacted by Markus being an unsatisfactory candidate.
This time the overall count of Postal votes are also running in Richard's favour (56.74%), while Templeman leads the other categories. But they've counted over 5,000 prepoll votes and Richards is still 282 behind overall.
I guess the question is how many votes are left to count? If the AEC website says 93.09% of votes have been counted and turnout is stated as 93.09% of eligible voters? Is this information available anywhere?
While Andrew has valid points re postals etc, in this case, short of a recout where a bundle of several hundred has been misplaced, it is unlikely to be a factor
With Templeman 282 ahead ad absents, prepoll and provisional running strongly in her favour this gap is sure to increase to let us be conservative ad say 330 although on current trends it should go up to 360.
There are now at max 2183 postal votes to count, so I think the chances of catching up 330-360 in that number are pretty thin.
Moreover 9and this is a question for Ben at some time in the future, I suspect that the conservative bias in postals is less with the later arrivals – i am guessing that the older people vote immediately o receipt of the paper while the younger fitter travellers may need to post from Nepal or Peru. This is just a guess mind you, so it has not serious weight.
However I Will chck it later when all the McQuarie postals have been counted.
Hey, Maverick – it seems you know things I don’t. Up the page you said that there were about 1500 postal votes to go, and now 2183… how do you know this? Why the increase between comments?
I gather today is a lay day and counting will begin again tomorrow (source: FB)
Maverick
Late postal votes from Nepal is an interesting point. I have never seen any analysis of party preference vs receivable date. However in today’s world does it take longer to get mail from Kathmandu than it takes to get from suburb next door?
So Richards leads all the way with the trend the same every day with each primary and preference flow. Every day the same trend. Everyone predicting a Richards win who still has 6000+ more primary votes. Then in the last few days a new batch of international absentees arrive and Templeman and the Greens amazingly get so many new votes they take a 300+ lead in 2 days? Got to love Labor in trouble. I guess the “ALP Abroad” groups got quickly called in to fix this one for the Socialist faction. If it looks like a fish and smells like a fish it is probably fishy.