Longman – Australia 2019

ALP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Susan Lamb, since 2016.

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.

Lamb was forced to resign from parliament in early 2018 due to her late citizenship renunciation in 2016, but she was re-elected at the resulting by-election.

Candidates

Assessment
Longman is still a marginal seat. While the by-election result suggests Lamb is likely to be re-elected, that is far from guaranteed.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 34,359 39.0 -5.8
Susan Lamb Labor 31,161 35.4 +4.7
Michelle Pedersen One Nation 8,293 9.4 +9.4
Ian Bell Greens 3,865 4.4 +0.5
Will Smith Family First 3,002 3.4 +1.1
Frances Mcdonald Drug Law Reform 2,677 3.0 +3.0
Brad Kennedy Katter’s Australian Party 1,597 1.8 -1.0
Greg Riddell Independent 1,111 1.3 +1.3
Rob Law Independent 945 1.1 +1.1
Caleb Wells Independent 830 0.9 -0.1
Stephen Beck Arts Party 228 0.3 +0.3
Informal 8,217 8.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 44,729 50.8 +7.7
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 43,339 49.2 -7.7

2018 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 35,203 39.8 +4.5
Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 26,170 29.6 -9.4
Matthew Stephen One Nation 14,061 15.9 +6.5
Gavin Behrens Greens 4,264 4.8 +0.4
Jackie Perkins Independent 2,379 2.7 +2.7
Lloyd Thomas John Russell Liberal Democrats 1,762 2.0 +2.0
Blair Ann Verrier Australian Country Party 1,387 1.6 +1.6
Gregory Bell Democratic Labour Party 1,043 1.2 +1.2
James Noonan Science 970 1.1 +1.1
Jim Saleam Australia First Party 709 0.8 +0.8
John Reece People’s Party 420 0.5 +0.5
Informal 5,707 6.1

2018 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 48,116 54.5 +3.7
Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 40,252 45.6 -3.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone. Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

Labor a the won a large two-party-preferred majority of 60.8% in Caboolture-Morayfield and a smaller majority of 53.9% in Burpengary at the 2016 federal election. The LNP won majorities in the two less populous areas: 52.9% in Pumicestone and 54.2% in the west.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 7.8% in Pumicestone to 10.9% in the west.

Labor did better at the 2018 by-election, winning a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 50.9% in Pumicestone to 63.4% in Caboolture-Morayfield. The LNP won a reduced 50.9% majority in the west.

One Nation’s primary vote went up at the by-election, ranging from 13.3% in Burpengary to 19.7% in the west.

2016 booth breakdown

Voter group ON prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield 10.1 60.8 15,881 18.0
Burpengary 8.4 53.9 14,942 17.0
Pumicestone 7.8 47.1 8,969 10.2
West 10.9 45.8 5,359 6.1
Other votes 11.0 45.8 14,479 16.4
Pre-poll 9.0 48.2 28,438 32.3

2018 by-election booth breakdown

Voter group ON prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield 15.6 63.4 15,695 17.8
Burpengary 13.3 59.1 15,390 17.4
Pumicestone 15.2 50.9 8,466 9.6
West 19.7 49.1 5,150 5.8
Other votes 14.8 49.0 11,330 12.8
Pre-poll 17.3 51.6 32,337 36.6

Election results in Longman at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

Election results in Longman at the 2018 Longman by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

Become a Patron!

89 COMMENTS

  1. Even if you credit the ALP’s victory with the poor LNP candidate, one thing to remember is even though it was a very winnable byelection, the Liberals took quite a bit of time finding a candidate, and they ended up Ruthenberg. I don’t think they’ll have any better luck finding a candidate for the general election.

    ALP retain

  2. John prediction of ALP victory is probably right. LNP will not have candidates rushing to nominate.
    So far no sign of campaigning by any candidate unlike adjoining seat where ALP have been out on street and I think opened a campaign office in Strathpine.

    LNP candidate was not a bad candidate in by/election but ALP ran a very effective campaign.Shorten’s message of a return to a fair go bites hard on LNP in seats like Longman where there are no jobs. At least LNP Candidate did not run around like his predecessor did saying there were “plenty of highly paid service sector jobs” available when in reality only jobs available are casual retail positions or fruit picking on contract rates requiring contractors to live in hovels 6 to a room and pay Absorbitant board. It is no Enders Shoten won and best hat or side mansions.

  3. One mistake I made above Ashby Hanson still have by election signage up in Morayfield Rd. Palmer has in authorised signs up all over Brisbane. If he ca afford signs he can afford to open the Toownsville Refinery.

  4. New sign up in Station Rd Burpengary Turnbull and Pauline Hanson $60 Billion to big business. Sign nailed up to a telegraph pole. I will check authorisation and exact wording tomorrow.
    No doubt Election is going to be fought on Union vs Big Business issues and these favour ALP in Longman.
    Susan Lamb has distributed newsletter with emphasis on Health and Centrelink once again these are issues that will play well in Longman. No LNP or minor party candidates campaigning. Susan Lamb organising mobile office visits all over electorate.
    I was surprised that Susan Lamb won the byelection but with polls the way they are there is little chance that ALP will lose Longman.

  5. At a non political community meeting Thursday night local Councillor outlined new local law on election signage. It was pointed out that local law useless unless enforced. Councillor Flannery asured the meeting that the by law would be enforced. Someone (not me) pointed out that One Nation still has signs up from bi election 4 months ago. PHON sign still up in Morayfield Rd between Traditional Funerals and Garden Gems Nursery. Let’s hope party is heading for funeral rather than growing in nursery..

  6. I know this is a bit off topic (idk where to post) But why was this site down all day yesterday and i have noticed this site has a new layout?. On the topic of this seat, Labor retain wouldn’t be surprised if she wins 55-45 this might become a hot seat in 2022, I think whoever wins in 2022 (I presume it will be an Incumbent Labor government)

  8. I heard that Liberals are having difficulty getting a candidate
    to stand and that Pauline Hanson’s lot are having internal ructions about the fact that PH has got the money from AEC leaving candidate and local branch wearing most of cost of election but PH getting funding. Does the $360 000 average income per year from electoral commissions count as an office of profit under the crown if it is paid into a personal bank account rather than a party account. Can she confirm whether money from AEC goes to her personal account or to a Party Account? Is there any other Political Party with this unique funding structure.

  9. If they can’t find anyone they will likely Select Ruthenberg who would lose once again, The only hope is Nominating Wyatt Roy (He would also lose but it might put this seat a little closer and force Labor to campaign here more instead of seats they would wan’t to pick up to get a strong Majority.

  10. ACTU have put up a a big sign “Australia deserves spay rise- Change the rules” sign possibly in Dickson but clearly aimed at Longman voters. Longman voters will likely support ACTU on this. The electorate around here will not support the neo liberal agenda that LNP are currently pushing. We need a return to Deakin Compromise with reintroduction of Tariffs, Governmnt Owned Enterprises, Regulation, Trade Unions and employers subject to penal provisions of Arbitration Act, Industrial Inspectors checking on Seven eleven proprietors we however do not need morality changed.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  11. Liberals have now announced a candidate Terry Young proprietor of a large electrical shop in electorate. I wonder how much Australian made product this shop sells?

  12. ALP distributing a flyer “Scott Morrison’s Record” All negative Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison photographed but Susan Lamb and Bill Shorten do not get a mention. Would appear we are going to be in for a negative campaign.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  13. Susan Lamb posted out newsletter extolling ALP campaign issues enclosing magnetic calendar. Printing Allowance gives an unfair advantage to sitting MPs.
    Susan Lamb concentrates on funding to State Schools which is not the message she tried to convey at Catholic Parents and Friends Candidates Forum during By-Election.
    Spoke to a few people today about Shorten’s campaign so far and all are except a political activist were supportive of Shorten’s back to basic labor campaign but no one thought ALP had changed their social policy. Hiding support for moral libertarianism is not the same as opposing this libertarianism.

  14. Definite contest in Longman.
    Liberals now have a big bill board up on Burpengary Service Road. ALP taxation is theme. Palmer a similarly large Bill board in Buchanan Rd. Theme higher electricity prices.

    Liberals endorsed candidate yet to make any impact. Susan Lamb concentrating on being a moderately visible MP. I saw Shane Knuth (KAP NQ MP’sFacebook page other day) Visibility seems to be a key factor in electoral success. Country MP’s seem to have this down to a fine art. Thinking about the MPs in CQ 40 yrs ago. Rex Pilbeam and Lindsay Hartwig were not liked but seen as part of furniture and as permanent feature on front page as masthead. Vince Lester was personally liked and just as much of a furniture masthead. City MPs do not have the visibility and even if they work just as hard ( and there are very few MPs who do not work very hard) they do not have the same visibility.

    I do not think Susan Lamb is in any danger. She will however never become a furniture masthead.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  17. I can’t see seats like Longman being a challenge for the next 2 elections. Labor will have a least 2 strong terms, considering the rabble that the present Government is. Labor would have to really stuff things up to not get at least 2 terms, and even a third. People won’t forget this Liberal / National Government and in 2 or 3 terms will there be a Liberal and a National Party will it self implode

  18. It is a mistake to assume that a major victory for ALP in 2019 will mean that individual seats are safe in 2022.
    No sign so far that ALP will endeavour to change the Constitution to establish fixed 4 year terms.
    I would tolerate 4 year terms but one of the strengths of our system is the ability of Parliament to sack the government. Trump tantrum at the moment shows the superiority of a Parliamentary system over a system based on seperation of powers.
    If Trump was in a Parliamentary system the US would be heading for a General Election. I voted for Keating’s Republic but will vote No to a vaguely worded referendum proposed by Shorten. How many Brits would now vote for the chaos of vaguely worded Brexit referendum.

  19. Andrew your post about phon is interesting………… is it a party or a business………. I suspect payt if made to her personal bank account is illegal

  20. Mick
    It should be illegal but it is not. AEC asks Party Agent to specify which bank account to pay money into. PH is party agent and can have the money paid into whatever bank account she wants money paid into.

  22. “Printing Allowance gives an unfair advantage to sitting MPs.”

    Andrew why pick out this MP? Why not pick out the 21 other Queensland LNP Mps who have the same advantage.

    I’m actually a little tired of some of the predictions on here. News poll has Labor ahead in Queensland 54- 46 but predictions on this forum has LNP holding all Queensland seats and possibly winning Longman and Herbert off Labor.

    The other thing predictions of Liberals are a chance in seats in 2022 is stupid. You have no idea of polling, issues, or how the government is performing in the minds of voters. Just assuming Shorten is a one term government and Liberals are chance in Longman in 2022 without any justification with the exception of bias is not sufficient.

  23. What I am saying is do not assume that a victory for ALP in Longman in 2019 does not mean a victory in 2022. I do not think I have said that ALP will not win a large swag of seats in 2019.
    Yes I have a bias but it is not towards LNP. Bias however does not make my predictions wrong.
    Longman will re-elect Susan Lamb in 2019 but do not assume that just because ALP has a big win in 2019 that all seats won will automatically be re-elected in 2022. Longman will be a swing seat fo many years to come. If anything in future years it is more likely to move towards LNP. North Lakes is not Caboolture. Bribie Island hinterland is gentrifying and Burpengary is ageing. I am not predicting that Susan Lamb will lose in 2022 but do not assume that she will win.
    You need to remember that she won in 2016 and 2018 with preferences from Ashby-Hanson and Country Party.
    She beat Wyatt Roy by skin of her teeth. Roy took how many days to concede? Whilst I thought she had won on election night it was not a certainty.
    Happy New Year.
    I expect Bill Shorten to be PM by June but hope he does not have a Senate majority.ALP supporters need to test all Senate Candidates about how they will vote on specific issues.
    I thought she won

  24. Nobody will have a Senate majority. Labor will find it quite difficult to win 3/6 seats in most states, let alone 4/6 and even if they did, the LNP have plenty of senators on 6 year terms. (16 of their 29 state senators, to be specific.)

  25. Political Nightwatchman I picked this seat to comment on because Susan Lamb sent me a Christmas card and no other federal MP did so this year.
    It might have something to do with the fact that I live in Longman.
    You will find that I was far more severe on Wyatt Roy’s massive expenses in fitting out his office.
    My criticism is not so much at Susan Lamb but at printing allowance.
    I see no need for MP’s to send me caledars with their photo on it. After all Main Roads Dept Branch manager does not send me photo calendars.

  26. Other mps here, Luke howarth sent an email to allot of residents wishing them a merry christmas, But i have to say hard working members get re-elected most of the time, and i think she (susan) could survive until the next 2013 result for labor.

  27. Daniel
    I do not agree that hard working MPs get Re-elected.
    Firstly nearly all MPs are hardworking
    Secondly very little of har work that an MP does is reported
    Therefore most hard work that any MP does does goes unreported.
    Thirdly great majority of electorate do not know who local MP is and vote solely for PM. In 51 years voting not one representative of mine has ever voted against party. I have disagreed with every one of them (except Senators Gair and Byrne) at times but all except one I regard as hard working. The most hard working of them all Vince Lester MLA managed to gain ALP votes in Blackwater 1978-1985 but he had a range of widely read local newspapers and local radio stations to get him publicity. A community of 10K has more interactions with their MP than city voters.

  29. I will have a go at the QLD seats to fall – maybe this would be a good exercise for all states in the Commonwealth Election – which seats will fall / change hands:

    1. Dawson
    2. Bonner
    3. Herbert – line ball to the LNP
    4 Flynn
    5. Brisbane
    6. Capricornia
    7. Petrie
    8. Dickson
    9. Forde

    So that makes 8 Labor, 1 LNP

  31. Dawson will fall to Libs but I can not see Christiansen being so stupid as to still be Liberal Candidate. Whole situation in Qld could change with Re-establishment of a National Party.
    Agree with all of others except Petrie.

    If Libs want to win they have got to return to Menzies era economics and in doing so they would blow the guts out of Shorten’s campaign strategy.

    Re-regulate economy starting with banks. Penalty for breach of regulations forfeiture of 100% of assets to Crown followed by creation of a Commonwealth Government owned bank using assets of breaching Bank.
    Penalty rates Re-established by Liberals.
    Trade Unions and Super seperate leading to massive TU over-reaction leading to Coalition Victory.
    Leaving ALP with no policies to campaign on other than inner city moral degeneracy and Adani leading to a massive defeat of ALP.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  32. Why do you agree with Herbert? Your on drugs to think it goes LNP this time round, Sportsbet has Labor huge favourites there, It wasn’t ”Ewen Jones” fault that it was lost last time, It was because they don’t like what the government is doing, They won’t win it unless they restore Menzies policies. Also Generation Z voters like me will not vote Liberal much at all, Millennial’s have already gone against the coalition big time, And with the world trending more left, The coalition will start to be in Long periods of opposition unless they reform, Longman (this seat) will also never go coalition again unless they restore Menzies values

  33. for labour to lose Herbert against the swing of 4 to 5% to them would be strange at a state level they retained all 3 Townsville seats I would not be sure that all the seats listed by James would be lost either by the libs…… however at least 2 to 3 seats not listed could be won by Labor.

  35. My rough assessment using American pundit style handicapping system:

    Safe ALP: Every Labor held seat except Herbert
    Likely ALP: Capricornia, Forde, Herbert, Petrie
    Lean ALP: Bonner, Dickson, Flynn
    Toss up: Dawson
    Lean LNP: Bowman, Brisbane, Leichhardt
    Likely LNP: Ryan
    Safe LNP: Every other Coalition seat

    Kennedy safe/likely Katter, depending on Labor HTV.

  36. Don’t overestimate Warren’s chances in Leichhardt, He isn’t even that popular up there, (See my comment on that page). Compare him to popular members such as Trevor Evans, Hes gone because he refuses to reveal who he votes for in spills which opens up a door that he could have backed Dutton, Which would be a betrayal of the communities up there, Its like this seat Longman, Rudd would have won Longman, But thanks to Gillard they did disastrous in QLD, And even a 20 year old could win a seat with no past experience

  38. Speaking to relatively non -political neighbour today they advised they were sick of Palmer’s Adverts. Surprisingly apart from Bill Boards and half page Newspaper Yellow Adverts I have not seen too many of them> I ould have thought that what Commercial TV I watch would be suitable for his target demographic in my wife’s words “English Cops and Robbers shows” So is he trying to target a more youthful demographic than me.

  39. Charlie: would you care to explain what these demographic changes are and why they have only kicked in since the by-election, where Susan Lamb got a positive swing?

    Andrew: do you think your neighbour generalises, i.e. people are switched off from Palmer? If so – excellent!

  40. His ads are all over channels 7, 9 & 10 in the middle of prime time (6:00-9:00pm), almost every single ad break. Must be costing a fortune.

  41. Trent
    I am not disagreeing. But they are not getting to me. Mainly watch ABC, SBS, 7 Two and 9 Two. What I saying is that even though he is upsetting my neighbours he is not getting to me. I just think he is targeting an audience other than me.
    Yes I think very few in electorate are switched on to Palmer. 90% of electorate do not understand that Qld Nickel and Palmer are seperate legal entities. This is a hell of a challenge to overcome.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  42. Took a trip from Burpengary through Morayfield and Caboolture this morning and no sign of street stalls. No Corflutes up yet but Council have promised to enforce their by law this time.
    ALP are telephone polling electorate with internal poll. Poll not very accurate would allow me to say some other party for primary Vote or do not know but when it came to preferencing ALP or LNP higher would not let me say “Do not know” which is my position at moment. Choice between Coalition under Morrison and ALP under Shorten is a choice between an imbecile and a brainless twit. I support compulsory preferential voting but it requires tolerance.
    Morrison’s market worshipping is as bad as Shortens willingness to be directed by trade unions.
    Additionally the poll appears to be coming from a non ALP correspondent on this site. Strange and correspondent knows nothing about it. I tried to ring Susan Lamb’s campaign team but went to message bank.
    I have had survey once from ALP and twice from Tally Room correspondent.
    This means ALP internal polling is not reliable. Normally ALP internal polling is very reliable and leakage from ALP is strategically managed.

  45. WD
    No whispering about Adani heard. If Coal was going into an Australian Powe House Adani would be highly negative to ALP so I doubt if Adani will influence one tenth of a percent of voters

  46. Andrew
    Maybe. However the big issue in Longman will be Labor’s expropriation (it is not a tax, it is straight out theft) of Cash refunds of franking credits. One of my lawyer mates is adamant that this is unconstitutional, & therefore would be subject to a high court challenge. Potentially Billions of dollars in costs, & compensation. Reminds me of Bowen’s previous & costly attempt to tax payments in company shares ! This fool, this idiot, refuses to learn from past mistakes, just like his party seems to enjoy ignoring history. We all know how that ends : “Those that ignore history are CONDEMNED to repeat it “!!. I’m looking forward to the Taitinger !!

  47. Winedimond, the coalition wont win the election, wake up, just wake up your being like charlie who kept saying coalition would get a majority this election

  48. Dannyboy
    I think you are failing a comprehension test here. Have i said the LNP would win ??. No of course not.
    The Libs will lose this election in Victoria, unless things change.

    BTW I am wide awake in a sense you could clearly not even imagine, let alone comprehend. So i suggest you quit trying to KNOW anything, & commence an inquiry, in order to attempt, to learn something. In a few decades you may have something called E-X-P-E-R-IE-N-C-E !!. it leads to wisdom.

    My condescension is a response to your contempt

  49. > One of my lawyer mates is adamant that this is unconstitutional, & therefore would be subject to a high court challenge.

    Dennis Denuto?

  50. WIne Diamond
    Franking credits may well be iniquitous but I doubt if 1 voter in 20 understands the issue and the great bulk of these will already vote Liberal. To win ALP only has to keep voters who voted ALP in 2016 or the by-election. Liberals need to persuade voters to switch from ALP to LNP. The votes gained by voters switching because of Franking Credits will not be sufficient to have an impact. Bribing Island is only part of electorate where Franking Credits will have an impact.
    Franking Credits will gain Liberals vocal support but only from those who will vote LNP anyway.

Newer Comments »

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here