Indi – Australia 2019

IND 4.9% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Cathy McGowan, since 2013.

Geography
North-eastern Victoria.  Indi runs along the Murray River and stretches inland to cover Wodonga, Wangaratta, Towong, Mansfield, Murrindindi, Indigo, Benalla and Alpine council areas, and part of Strathbogie council area. The major cities in the seat are Wodonga and Wangaratta.

Redistribution
Some small changes were made to the western boundary of Indi. Indi lost Tungamah and Pelluebla to Nicholls and gained Euroa and Violet Town from Murray.

History
Indi is an original federation electorate. Apart from four elections when the ALP won the seat, Indi has almost always been won by the Coalition parties and their predecessors.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Isaac Isaacs. Isaacs was a radical member of the Protectionist party and did not get along with most of his party. He was appointed Attorney-General in Alfred Deakin’s government in 1905, but in 1906 he was appointed to the High Court. Isaacs served on the High Court for 24 years. In 1930 he was appointed Chief Justice by Labor Prime Minister James Scullin. Shortly after, Scullin decided to break with tradition by appointing an Australian-born Governor-General, and chose Isaacs. Isaacs served as Governor-General until 1936.

Indi was won in 1906 by Anti-Socialist candidate Joseph Brown, a former Victorian state MP. Brown joined the merged Liberal Party in 1909, although he was a fierce critic of Alfred Deakin. He lost Indi in 1910 to the ALP’s Parker Moloney.

Moloney held Indi until the 1913 election, when he lost to the Liberal Party’s Cornelius Ahern, but Moloney won it back in 1914. Moloney lost Indi again in 1917. He went on to move across the border to the neighbouring NSW seat of Hume, which at the time covered Albury. He held Hume from 1919 to 1931, and served as a minister in the Scullin government.

The Nationalist Party’s John Leckie, a Victorian state MP, won Indi in 1917. He lost the seat in 1919 to Robert Cook of the Victorian Farmers’ Union, which became the Country Party.

Cook retained Indi at the 1922 and 1925 elections, but lost the seat in bizarre circumstances in 1928, when he failed to lodge his nomination papers. The seat instead was won by the ALP’s Paul Jones.

Jones was re-elected in 1929, when Cook attempted to retain his seat, before he lost Indi to the United Australia Party’s William Hutchinson in 1931. Jones went on to serve in the Victorian Legislative Council from 1938 and 1958, and left the ALP as part of the split in 1955, ending up in the Democratic Labor Party.

Hutchinson held Indi for two terms. In 1937 he moved to the new seat of Deakin, which he held until his retirement in 1949.

Indi was won in 1937 by the Country Party’s John McEwen, who had previously won the seat of Echuca in 1934. He served as a minister in the Liberal/Country governments from 1937 to 1941.

McEwen left Indi to take the new seat of Murray in 1949, and he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet in the new government. He was elected Country Party leader in 1958, and when Robert Menzies retired in 1966 he became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party. When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired in 1971.

Indi was won in 1949 by Liberal candidate William Bostock. Bostock held the seat until the 1958 election, when he lost to the Country Party’s Mac Holten. Holten was a former footballer, and he served as Minister for Repatriation from 1969 to 1972.

In 1977, Holten was challenged by the Liberal Party’s Ewen Cameron. Despite topping the poll on primary votes, Holten lost when Cameron overtook him on Labor preferences.

Cameron held Indi until his retirement in 1993. He was succeeded in 1993 by the Liberal Party’s Lou Lieberman, a former Victorian state MP and minister. Lieberman served on the Liberal backbench until his retirement at the 2001 election.

In 2001, Indi was won by Sophie Panopoulos (now Mirabella). Mirabella served on the backbench for the entirety of the Howard government, becoming a parliamentary secretary in 2007 and a shadow minister in 2008.

At the 2013 election, Mirabella was defeated by independent candidate Cathy McGowan, who won a very tight contest by 439 votes. McGowan was re-elected with an enlarged margin in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Cathy McGowan is not running for re-election.

Assessment
While Cathy McGowan’s margin is still relatively small, she is likely to strengthen her hold on the seat.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Cathy Mcgowan Independent 31,336 34.8 +3.6 33.4
Sophie Mirabella Liberal 24,887 27.6 -17.1 27.8
Marty Corboy Nationals 15,525 17.2 +17.2 17.8
Eric Kerr Labor 8,826 9.8 -1.9 10.1
Jenny O’Connor Greens 3,445 3.8 +0.4 4.0
Julian Fidge Australian Country Party 1,863 2.1 +2.1 2.1
Alan James Lappin Independent 1,757 1.9 +2.0 1.9
Vincent Ferrando Rise Up Australia 1,150 1.3 +0.2 1.3
Tim Quilty Liberal Democrats 886 1.0 +1.0 0.9
Ray Dyer Independent 462 0.5 +0.5 0.5
Others 0.3
Informal 6,299 6.5

2016 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Cathy Mcgowan Independent 49,421 54.8 +4.6 54.9
Sophie Mirabella Liberal 40,716 45.2 -4.6 45.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Sophie Mirabella Liberal 49,038 54.4 -4.7 55.0
Eric Kerr Labor 41,099 45.6 +4.7 45.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Wodonga and Indigo council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. The remainder were split into East, South-West and West.

Independent MP Cathy McGowan won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (vs the Liberal Party) in all five areas, ranging from 51.1% in the south-west to 62.2% in Indigo.

The Nationals came third, with a vote ranging from 7.3% in the west to 12.6% in the east.

Voter group NAT prim % IND 2CP % Total votes % of votes
West 7.3 51.3 11,494 12.3
Wodonga 8.7 57.9 9,649 10.4
South-West 10.5 51.1 7,989 8.6
Indigo 12.0 62.2 6,981 7.5
East 12.6 54.6 6,658 7.1
Other votes 6.9 52.2 12,196 13.1
Pre-poll 2.2 53.4 38,184 41.0

Election results in Indi at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal) and Nationals primary votes.


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61 COMMENTS

  2. McGowan hasn’t been tested against a Liberal that isn’t Sophie Mirabella, but you would think that most people whose sole reason for not voting Liberal was Mirabella would have voted National last time.

    Maybe this election will be the first one where ALP win the 2 Party Preferred, although that is mainly a bit of trivia that will largely depend on what McGowan’s how to vote card looks like.

  3. The Nationals vote split 72/28 to Liberals – which is strong, but not what you’d want from a coalition partner.

    I would expect the Liberal -> National flow would have been stronger. I can’t think of any National vs Labor runoffs where the Liberals stood a candidate to check though.

    If this theory is true, plus my aforementioned point about Mirabella, McGowan isn’t necessarily safe indefinitely, although I don’t see her losing in an election where the Liberals are on their way out of government.

  4. Compared to other rural independents running for re-election, McGowan’s performance was actually pretty weak last time, especially running against a deeply unpopular opponent. If the Liberals were to preselect someone popular or even just inoffensive, I think she’d be in trouble, but that’s far from a given. (If they’re stupid enough to preselect Greg Mirabella, then she’d be safe as houses.) It will be interesting to see whether the Liberals genuinely target this one this time around or focus on sandbagging their marginals.

  5. My sister lives in Indi and votes for McGowan and I like her too.

    However according to the weekend media reports McGowan is to move a private members bill to get the long deceased General Sir John Monash posthumously promoted to Field Marshal which is ridiculous. Monash has been dead for 90 years and if Field Marshal rank was required for Monash or Chauvel, for that matter, they would have been promoted during WW1. Both were Corps commanders and Chauvel was promoted to Lt Gen first and Monash was promoted later during WW1. Lt Gen is the correct rank for a Corps commander. Both were knighted during WW1 too. A Maj Gen commands a Division and 3 Divisions make up a Corps. 3 Corps (or 9 Division) make up an Army and is commanded by a General. Field Marshals command a number of Armies and Monash did not command an Army nor a larger Army Group. Also if any General was promoted to Field Marshal he would out rank his superior officer the Chief of the General Staff (now called Chief of Army). However both were promoted to General in the late 1920’s.

  6. Sir Harry Chauvel, who commanded the Desert Mounted Corps in Palestine and Syria during WW1, was Chief of the General Staff from 1923-30. PM Scullion proposed promoting Chauvel in 1929 to General however Chauvel agreed to this only if Sir John Monash was also promoted to General and the PM agreed.

    Monash in the last months of WW1 commander the Australian Corps however it was composed of 5 division instead of the usual 3 divisions. However this was fewer divisions than an Army (9 division) that a General would command.

  7. Even if she does not run, This would be a narrow Labor gain based off TPP number’s last time, But also the candidate for Ovens Valley who was an adviser to Cathy McGowan could run here should McGowan choose to opt out, When this someday because a coalition seat again it should go to the National’s as this is a rural seat,

  8. I agree with Adrian about General Monash. Promoting him to Field Marshall 100 years after the War smacks of Colonial soldiers such as Idi Amin promoting themselves to Field Marshall rank even though they in reality had no more than a Brigade to command and in reality that Brigade consisted of little but infantry battalions. Lt Alex Nyrenda of Tanganyika became a Major General in less time than it would have taken him to rise to rank of Major in Australian Army.
    Andrew Jackson

  10. I hadn’t noticed the relatively close Liberal-Labor 2PP before. Given Indi’s staunchly conservative nature, it looks very artificial.

  11. Kathy McGowan did not win 2 elections back but rather Sophie Mirabella lost…. this was a perfect example of any but but Sophie voting and grass roots democracy

  12. I just don’t understand liberal supporters at all. I just don’t… The TPP is definitely not biased, despite Mirabella being a bad candidate

  13. McGowan will be safe, they won’t be able to put the resources in here when they are looking at needing to defend seats like Aston, Deakin, Casey, La Trobe, and maybe even Kooyong from Labor.

  14. add Flinders Higgins, and Menzies to that list too, If you have Aston and Kooyong there, No way Aston falls unless those 3 seats fall 1st

  16. Sophie was a good activist during the constitutional monarchy referendum 20 years ago before entering parliament but she turned out to be a dud in parliament and did not spend enough time, if any, with her constituents.

  17. I don’t see the ALP winning Aston, in both the 2002 and 2018 landslides the Liberals were able to hold the main state seat within the area and while no two elections are the same but there would be seats that stay Liberal and at this stage I think Aston is one of them.

    I also don’t think the ALP see Kooyong as winnable because they still don’t have a candidate.

  19. Helen Haines will contest, CATHY MCGOWAN IS RETIRING, Don’t even think about saying Liberal gain, If anything the National’s are more likely, This is rural, I think Helen Haines will win this. Because of the bad year for the coalition, Plus this is an open seat so it will be easier to win than 2013

  20. Daniel – Bulleen isn’t in Aston. The seat of Rowville and the earlier seat of Scoresby make up a large part of Aston and both were held in landslide election defeats.

  21. Care will need to be taken to ensure Labor runs behind Haines, but also distributes HTVs everywhere on the day and at all pre-polling. Greens need to think their HTV carefully as well.

  22. I would have preferred Cathy and Voice of Indi had gone with someone like Jacqui Hawkins, she did a pretty good job in Benambra and I think she could have been a long time independent MP.

  23. Daniel, honestly, settle down with your posts. You have been consistently antagonistic, even when no-one else is saying anything.

    I do think Cathy McGowan announcing she won’t run will change the landscape of this seat. She did win the seat of the incredible (and justified) unpopularity of Sophie Mirabella. On top of that, the 2016 election, had a 17% swing against Mirabella, all of which went to the Nats candidate.

    It is that splitting of the Coalition vote that cost them last time, plus the fact that Mirabella ran again. I think the Liberal Party needs to give up running a candidate in this seat and throw everything behind the National Candidate. They could win this back given these circumstances but this seat now becomes line-ball.

  24. Im sorry, I will tone down a little, I just care allot about the future, And good government is needed for a good future, i won’t turn this into a debate, I think the Libs have a chance here, But they likely have the same chance of winning here than winning in Melbourne port’s this election

  25. Daniel your comment suggests the chance of a liberal win here is Small. What happened here is the locals decided they Did not Want Sophie Mirabella and they established a political organisation to choose a candidate to defeat her …. that was Kathy Mcgowan.. If she retires then I expect the existing organisations choice will win….. The pattern of this seat is such that the liberals will out poll the Nationals…. the liberals will not decline to run a candidate here

  26. Mike Quinlivan -Its Cathy McGowan not Kathy McGowan anyhow she is retiring undefeated at the next election and handing over the reins to an other orange shirt lady candidate.

  27. According to sportsbet Coalition is ahead, but i dont buy that, No way i see the liberals gaining a seat especially how badly the goverment is polling. 2007 is differant because Scott morrison is no John Howard. Plus even if the coalition wins this, it will be for 1 term and then you might even get Mcgowan to recontest who knows. Its not a wise idea for her to retire. The liberals cant win in rural areas especially ifnthey dont have an incumbent to help them.

  28. The Nationals have endorsed former Wodonga Mayor Mark Byatt as their candidate.

    This will be a fascinating contest. Especially to see who polls higher out of the Libs and Nats (my guess is the Libs will poll higher).

    I still think Dr Haines will win on Labor and Green preferences.

  29. PRP – I agree Dr Haines should win. Also Cathy McGowan won in a general election too, not a by-election, like in Wentworth.

  30. There are two factors missing in this seat that existed in 2013 and 2016 – Cathy McGowan and Sophie Mirabella. It is is pretty obvious that Sophie Mirabella had developed what could be called a strong anti-personal vote in the seat. This enabled Cathy McGowan – a strongly likeable candidate – to win against Mirabella. In 2016 only 64% of National preferences went to Mirabella – even if every single other vote the Nats had picked up along the preference count went to McGowan – there would still have been a leakage of about 15% to McGowan. Mirabella was obviously a toxic candidate.

    I think in this seat, all bets will be off. Helen Haines may not be able to carry all of McGowans vote with her, and the Lib/Nat preference swap may be a lot tighter without Mirabella.

  31. I’m not sure the local action groups understand what an independent is. What they’ve created with Haines is essentially an informal party structure with a preselection process, but without going through the hassle of registering as a party.

    Can someone tell me, was McGowan retiring anyway, or did she only announce it afterwards to ensure a smooth transition?

  32. Anybody got any thoughts about how the United Aust Party is likely to fare here?

    They are running the biggest TV ad campaign in history. Every night on my fav channel (Sky) in Syd, there are ads for the UAP, at virtually every break.

    It must be costing C.P. a fortune, especially as there are multiple ads with diff people in them; so it’s not as if they’re playing the same one over and over.

    Is this going to have any effect?

  33. Hopefully Dr Haines will get up in Indi. i give her a just slightly better than even chance. It really comes down to how the preferences flow, particularly between the Nats & Libs whom i expect to be 3rd, ^& 2nd. She is gone if the Nats WERE TO COME 2ND.

    BS will be quietly hoping that the Coalition win this back. Independents will prove far more difficult for him. Their criticisms will seem more valid, & problematic

  34. I believe that the Independent will come first on primary vote.
    I believe the independent will get about 30%
    The Liberal about 25%
    The national about 20%
    The ALP candidate about 15%
    And about 5% for other candidates.
    I believe that the national prefrences will overwhelmingly favour the liberal and the labor prefrences will moderately favour the independent. This will leave a very close race. However on 2CP vote I believe the Liberals will just come out on top.

  35. I actually think Thomas Hofer is pretty much on the money here, but may be overestimating the joint Coalition vote of roughly 45%.

    I think the Nationals vote, may be a bit lower (around 17%) and Labor’s around 13%, but agreed this is definitely one to watch. The Coalition would be fools to write-off their chances of re-capturing Indi.

  36. All the candidates are incredibly unspectacular. Haines has the best image, however the substance of her fundamentally being a PS bureaucrat is unappealing. The NAT will be doing well to get 15%. If the libs had a good candidate this would be over.

  37. Looking back at the 2016 results, there is a very firm 45% or so votes for the Libs and Nats in this seat. It is interesting to note that the Lib loss of votes in 2016 almost exactly matched the Nat vote (no Nat in 2013). When preferences were distributed over 20% of the Labor vote went to the Nats (11% to Mirabella) but when Nats votes were distributed only 65% went to Mirabella. It suggests that there was an ‘anyone but Mirabella’ vote happening in this electorate. This time there is no Mirabella and there is no reason to believe that Helen Haines will take all of Cathy McGowans voters with her. My money would be on the Libs or Nats to win – and if they do, they can then dig themselves for years to come.

  39. Driving up the Hume Highway on way to Bright Autumn Festival I saw evidence of Independents campaigning and Clive Palmer spending money. A few Liberal Corflutes in Melbourne but not much in Country. Clearly Queensland parties more active than Victorian parties.

  40. I’m not entirely convinced that Helen Haines has the profile and personal appeal to replicate McGowan’s result against 2 Coalition candidates who both seem likeable and without personal baggage. Is anyone on the ground able to offer more insight?

  42. I have spent five days in Bright In South of Indi and my wife noted a lack of evidence of campaigning.A few Haines Corflutes in Bright and a few signs on roads. Most of signs unreadable due to siting after bends in roads. On Bright -Harrietville two well placed Palmer signs. Obviously locally produced Frames. Steel piping bent to shape. Palmer must have some support here.
    Not enough contact with locals to get a feel for wind. Demography that attend Autumn Festival events are not going to support ALP and those that come to see exotic trees are unlikely to support the eco-fascists. Absolutely no evidence of support for the racist parties possibly McGowan has blunted the rise of fascism in Indi.

  43. From a friend who drove through Wangaratta yesterday – campaign felt very dead. Remembered seeing a lot of Nats signs in that area last time. Probably because they’re running a guy from Wodonga this time?

  44. Bright tends to favor the ALP although it went to Cathy McGowan in 2016 as shown above.

  45. Further on Bright, its an area that has moved a great deal in recent years, During the Howard years Bright was a solid Liberal booth but that margin slowly declined.

  46. Pencil
    I am only a visitor but Bright favouring ALP does not sound right.As stated by you McGowan favoured in both 2016 and 3013. ALP got 7.49% in 2013 being beaten by Nats Libs and Greens.
    2013 Libs got 29.7 ALP 7.49 and McGowan 38.42. Obviously
    as a visitor my vision is clouded but does not look ALP and has not voted ALP in last two elections.
    Reminds me a bit of Maleny or Buderim totally dependent on retirees and tourism. Surrounding farms only icing on cake.

  47. Andrew, its an interesting booth because the ALP won the booth by 3 votes in the last state election and the coalition whether that be the Liberals at federal level or the Nats at state level look like they have been losing support in recent years because I cannot see any reason why it would be an ALP area.

  49. I spoke to one of shopkeepers in Bright today and asked him what he had seen and he said only Nationals have been on Main Street.
    I have seen no Nationals candidate or corflutes. Both Border Mail (Albury-Wodonga) and Alpine Observor (Bright) have adverts for Nationals Mark Byatt but main election news in each was Liberals promise to give Scount Group $250K for new scout hut in Myrtleford and Liberal candidate Steve Martin launching a tour of electorate 50 towns in 50 days. Helen Haines has a full page advert signed by about 200 locals saying we are voting for independent for Indi. Definite attempt to show support from all parts of electorate. Successful other than printing in white on orange background.
    My prediction based on nothing but gut feeling is Haines to win. However if not Haines Lib or Nat no chance of ALP win in this seat. TV adds for Haines clearly showing links between Haines and previous MP Cathy McGowan.
    Prepoll in Bright not yet open so could not have a look at on ground activity.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  50. Went to Bright Pre poll today. Only 4 HTV being handed out. Liberals Nationals ALP and Haines. House of Reps candidates for Greens UAP and Hinch had booth unmanned Liberals handing out both Lib and Nat HTV. May even have been machine sorted. Not fumbling with two bundles which from experience is near imposssible.
    Speaking to Haines worker I asked how things were going and was told not sure. Uncertainty is best you can hope for on pre poll. You know if things going badly.
    Group seemed to be getting on with each other.
    Andrew Jackson

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